Population and Rural Urban Migration.doc
POPULATION AND RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA
BY
NANDE, MATTHEW TERSOO
[email protected]
+2348169671716
&
ABDULSALAM, OIZA RAHIMAT
[email protected]
+2348137240742
ABSTRACT
There are different reasons that cause rural-urban migration in Nigeria. They
are the so-called push and pull factors which can be seen as simultaneous
analysis of factors that attract migrants to urban areas. These determinants
are split up into economic and non-economic factors for easy understanding.
Todaro’s rural urban migration model is adopted here as a theoretical
framework to guide the discussion. Although the theory failed to capture
non-economic factors in explaining rural-urban migration, the paper
addressed such shortcomings. It was discovered that people who migrate
are usually the more educated, young and determined. Socio- economic
factors, such as better employment and educational opportunities, etc are
the main reasons for people to migrate to cities in Nigeria, although
insecurity has compounded the picture. The paper recommends that good
educational facilities and qualified teachers as well as agro-allied industries
must be set-up in rural areas in order to better living conditions of rural
dwellers.
Key Words: Population, Migration, Rural-urban Migration
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Introduction
The dynamic nature of man is ably demonstrated in his ability to move from
place to place. This ability marks the fundamental feature of human
population. And by consequence, human population is distributed unevenly
across global space. Davis [2004] noted that “for the first time the urban
population of the earth will outnumber the rural. Indeed given the
imprecision of third world censuses, this transition may already have
occurred.” He stressed further that “cities have absorbed nearly two-third of
the global population explosion since 1950 and are currently growing by
million babies and migrants each week”.
The consequences of rapidly increasing population are to retard all
development efforts in an underdeveloped country unless accompanied by
high rates of capital accumulation, and technological progress. But these
counteracting factors are not available and the result is that population
explosion leads to declining agricultural productivity, low per capital income,
low living standard, mass unemployment, low rate of capital formation, and
adverse balance of payments [Jhingan, 2007].
Although, Akpomuvie [2012] believes that migration is necessary for growth.
He contends that “all countries attain economic growth through a transfer of
man power from rural and agricultural sector to urban and secondary or
tertiary sector.” However, migration of people from rural area far outstrips
services and infrastructure available in urban centres and this situation
results in deepening crises of slums, criminality, unemployment etc. The
after-effect of structural adjustment programme introduced in the 1980s by
the IMF has compounded the situation in Nigeria. Rural population moves out
in large number temporarily or permanently to towns and cities to seek out
new opportunities, improved living conditions, but end up in the city slums
with limited capacity to adapt to socio-economic changes in the new
environment they find themselves.
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This paper recognizes that there are factors other than economic which
motivate people to relocate from rural to urban areas. In the light of this,
attempt is made to discuss the various factors responsible for rural-urban
migration in Nigeria, pointing out trends, challenges and the way forward.
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1.0
Conceptual interpretation
1.1
Population
Population is a very central feature of any society, without which there can
be no society at all. Dictionary.references.com defines population as “the
total number of persons inhabiting a country, city or any district or area”.
Over the past 300 years, the population of nearly every major area in the
world has increased exponentially, so much so that certain places have
instituted incentives to couples who agreed to have fewer children
[businessdictionary.com]. That is to say that population is important for
growth and development of any society, but over population becomes a
menace to same societies as a result of social vices perpetrated by their
population.
1.2
Migration
Simply put, migration refers to the movement of people from one place to
another for the purpose of establishing permanent or temporary residence
[Adebayo and Raheem, 2012]. There are two types of migration: first internal
migration, referring to migration within the country, and secondary,
international migration, which means the movement from one country to
another. The reason for migration can be divided into two main aspects, the
so called “push” and “pull” factors.
Fischer [2009] argues that factors and determinants of migration are rather
diverse and they can be spilt up in economic and non- economic reasons:
1. Economic push factors such as unemployment and underemployment
in rural areas, low wages and no assets as well as lack of land which is
sometimes due to inheritance system that split the land among a large
number of people, making it less productive.
2. Non-economic push factors play an important role and mainly include a
poor rural infrastructure in general, i.e, poor living conditions referring
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to housing, education possibilities and health care; furthermore,
aspects of agricultural change like modernization of farming, new
techniques and machines as well as economic reforms in general cause
less demand of labour in the agricultural sector and therefore causes
people to search for more job opportunities; additional factors that act
as push factors are natural disasters, drought or famine, war and
conflict [especially in Africa] that in most of the times affect rural areas
by destroying most of their belongings and farm land and therewith
their livelihood.
3. Economic pull factors include factors that attract people to move into
cities which are mainly the counterparts of the push factors: rural
migrants hope for employment and higher wages in the cities caused
by a higher demand of labour there in general, due to economic
growth.
4. Non-economic pull factors include social factors such as the hope for
better health care and education provision or the urban facilities and
way of life in general as well as protection from conflict, family reunion
and family networks [i.e. it is easier for people to migrate if they have
relatives in cities][ Gebhardt et al,2007:29 in Fischer, 2009].
Migration, both internal and international is a common feature of both
developing and developed countries. In Nigeria especially, both types of
migration continue to increase. Migration is an inevitable part of human
existence with a long history. However, its pattern has changed considerably
overtime, from the search for space, especially in the middle ages, to that of
congestion in large cities [rural-urban migration] in the modem age.
Akpomuvie [2012] quoting Otite [2002] identified four types of internal
migration: from urban to urban, urban to rural, rural to urban, and rural to
rural.
The urban to urban movement involve people who change or seek
employment conditions which provide comfortable living standards with
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access to urban amenities. Urban to rural migration often result from
retrenchment from urban employment, employment in rural industrial or in
educational or other establishments. Those who migrate from the rural to
urban areas are generally in the majority, and this forms the nucleus of this
paper. These include people who have obtained a relatively high qualification
in the rural areas and are in search of white collar jobs for better income and
escape from the drudgery and boredom of rural life. Lastly, rural to rural
migrants are those who are comparatively weak in the competition for urban
employments as a result principally of their low education and incentives.
They remain in the rural environment where they use their physical strength
to exploit local economic resources.
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1.3 Rural-Urban Migration
Rural-urban migration is a form of so-called internal migration which
means a movement within a country and which stays in contrast to
international or intercontinental migration [Fischer, 2009]. This refers to the
movement of people from the country side and rural areas respectively into
the cities, often the metropolitan cities of a country. Adebayo and Raheem,
[2012] quoting Stephens [2002] posited that by 2030 three-fifths of the
world population is expected to live in urban areas. This change of residence
is often connected with the migration of labour and a career change from
primary to second or third sector-not necessarily, though, as it can refer to
the migration of people who are not working in agriculture or farming as well.
2.0
Theoretical Framework
Puja Mondal provides a condensed version of Todaro’s theory on rural-urban
migration which is adopted here to explain rural urban migration in Nigeria.
Todaro accepts the logistics of Lewis-Fei-Ranis model of rural-urban migration
but only with reservations. According to Lewis, this theory may correspond to
the historical scenario in the western socio economic milieu but does not
explain the trends of rural-urban migration in less developed countries
The Lewis model assumes that there could be faster capital accumulation
which could be invested in modern industry causing new jobs in abundance.
It implies that there would be labour transfer at the rate proportional to
capital accumulation.
But Lewis and his followers could not foresee that it could be possible only
when technology would remain the same. But capital accumulation leads to
capital- intensive industrial expansion based on advanced technologies
which yield high economic growth but there would be lesser labour
absorption. The modern industry has limited labour absorption capacity.
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Beside, Lewis’ assertion that rural sectors have surplus labour and urban
areas have full employment, does not hold true necessarily. Urban areas in
less developed countries in particular do not provide full employment. Davis
[2004] argued that IMF enforced policies of agricultural deregulation and ‘Depeasantization’ were accelerating the exodus of surplus rural labour to urban
slums even as cities ceased to be job machines.
Todaro’s model does not advocate simply the rural –urban wage differentials
as the basis of migration as is claimed in all migration theories. According to
him, the migrant is much rational and calculative in his decision to shift to a
particular city. He also takes into consideration not only the wage
differentials but also the probability of getting a job in the urban area.
Migration, thus, is determined more by rural-urban differences in expected
earnings, rather than in actual earnings
Francis Cherunilam, commenting on Todaro’s migration model, writes that
while the model is correct in holding that there is no possibility of full
employment in urban areas, it is not correct to assert that the act of
migration is always rational and well calculated. Todaro is also wrong in not
giving any importance to non-economic factors in the migration process.
Despite the stated shortcomings of the theory, the paper still finds it relevant
as a guide in explaining rural-urban migration in Nigeria. However the noneconomic factors responsible for rural-urban migration in Nigeria and the
non-rational decisions of migrants to shift base which the theory failed to
capture are well addressed in the course of the discussion
3.1 Population: A blessing or a curse? An overview
Many of the world’s remarkable innovations over the past 300 years are
attributable to population growth: more great minds leads to more
innovations. Assembly-line manufacturing itself is an adaptation to an
increasing population and the need for greater and faster out-put. More
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people around the world are living longer lives than even a century earlier,
thanks to modern medical achievements. And while agricultural resources
are a very real concern as the world’s population grows, the world’s increase
in population is responsible for a greater consciousness of the need for
additional resource as well as the innovations to produce food at the pace of
population growth [Ova, 2013].
The dangers of unrestrained population growth, especially when it is not
accompanied by commensurate human capital development and equity in
income distribution and economic opportunity are well documented. In his
classic book “The Population Bomb” published in 1968, U.S biologist and
environmentalist Paul R. Ehrlich likened unchecked population growth to
cancer, stating that “a cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the
population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people” [in Nosegbe,
2012].
The danger here is the risk of population growth outstripping the
capacity of the environment to support the populace and the capacity of
government to make the necessary investment in infrastructure, housing,
healthcare, agriculture and education to ensure that each can live a decent
and comfortable life.
In 2011, the world population hit 7billions, with china in all its demographic
splendor accounting for a fifth part of the figure. Future projections show that
India, another mega nation from Asia, is set to take over from China as the
most populous country come 2028. The world population is expected to have
crossed 8 billion by then, fueled largely by Asian and African populations as
western countries such as Britain and the United States appear to have
found a way to effectively control the growth of their populations (Simeon,
2013)
Jhingan,(2007) posited that population growth affects economic development
in two ways: first, by promoting economic development and second, by
retarding economic development.
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I.
A. Factors Promoting Economic Development.
Increase in per capita product: Prof. Kuznets in his study, modern
economic Growth has pointed out that substantial rates of population
growth in Europe have led to high rates of increase in total product and
II.
per capita product.
Rise in labour productivity: the rise in the rate of per capita is the result
of the rise in labour productivity. It is improvements in the quality of
III.
labour which increases productivity per unit of labour.
Population Growth leads to Growth of physical capital;- It has been
proved by recent researches that the growth of physical capital stocks
depends to a considerable extent on human capital formation which is the
“process of increasing
IV.
knowledge, the skills and the capacities of all
people of the country”
Population Growth leads to Age of high mass consumption:- Rostow has
shown in his stages of economic growth that the development of “leading
sector” due to the increase in the effective demand for their products
have paved the way for the age of high mass consumption through which
V.
almost all developed countries are passing.
Population growth as a source of capital formation:- according to Nurkse
and Lewis, high population growth can be a source of capital formation in
underdeveloped countries. Nurkse points out that underdeveloped
countries suffer from disguised unemployment on a mass scale. This
surplus labour force can be put to work on capital projects like irrigation,
I.
drainage roads, railways, houses, etc
B. Factors Retarding Economic Development.
Investment:- Economic development depends upon investment. In UDCs
the resources available for investment are limited. Therefore, rapid
population
II.
growth
retards
investment
needed
for
higher
future
consumption.
Overuse of Resources:- Rapid population growth tends to overuse the
country’s natural resources. Consequently many households continue to
III.
live in poverty.
Urbanization:- with rapidly growing population, it becomes difficult to
manage the adjustments that accompany economic and social change.
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IV.
Per Capita Income:- The effect of population growth on per capita income
is unfavorable. The growth of population tends to retard the per capita
income in three ways:
i.
It increases the pressure of population on land;
ii.
It leads to rise in costs of consumption goods because of the scarcity
iii.
of the cooperant factors to increase their supplies
It leads to a decline in the accumulation of capital because with
increase in family members, expenses increase. These adverse effect
of population growth on per capital income operate more severely if
the percentage of children in the total population is high, as is
V.
actually the case in all UDCs.
Standard of Living:- A rapidly increasing population leads to an increased
demand for food products, clothes, houses, etc. But their supplies cannot
be increased in the short run due to the lack of cooperant factors like raw
materials, skilled labour, capital, etc. Consequently, their costs and prices
VI.
rise which raise the cost of living of the masses
Agricultural Development:- in UDCs, people mostly live in rural areas.
Agriculture is their main occupation. As the number of landless workers
increases, their wages fall. This low per capita productivity reduces the
VII.
propensity to save and invest.
Employment:- a rapidly increasing population plunges the economy into
mass unemployment and underemployment. The result is that with the
increase in labour force, unemployment and underemployment increases.
As the labour force increase in relation to land, capital and other
VIII.
resources, complementary factors available per worker decline.
Social infrastructure:- Rapidly growing population necessitate large
investment in social infrastructure and diverts resources from directly
productive assets. Due to the scarcity of resources, it is not possible to
provide educational, health, medical, transport and housing facilities to
IX.
the entire population. There is overcrowding everywhere
Labour Force:- The labour force in an economy is the ratio of working
population to total population. Assuming 50 years as the average life
expectancy in an underdeveloped country, the labour force is in effect the
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number of people in the age- group of 15-50years. The result is that a
larger percentage of the total population is in the low age-group of 115years. This means that the addition to the lower age-group is larger
than in the working age-group. A large percentage of children in the
X.
labour force is a heavy burden on the economy
Environment:- Scarcity of land due to rapidly increasing population pushes
large number of people to ecologically sensitive areas such hillsides and
tropical forests. It also leads to overgrazing and cutting of forests for
XI.
cultivation leading to severe environmental change.
World Economy:- Rapid population growth also affects UDCs in relation to
the world economy in a number of ways:- first, rapid population growth
tends to increase income disparities between UDCs and developed
countries because the per capita incomes decline with growth in number
in the former. Second, rapid population growth encourages international
migration. (But the developed countries place restrictions on immigration
because labour from poor countries adversely affects the wages of native
workers and also create social and political tensions). Third, emigration
tends to increase wages of workers substantially at home. Fourth, another
beneficial effect of this is that emigrants remit large sums of money back
home. This increase family income and their living standard at home.
3.2
Population: A blessing or a curse? The Nigerian experience
The issue of Nigeria’s fast – rising population, despite being the topic of
public discourse in recent times, still has not received the attention it
deserves from appropriate quarters. But population explosion in itself
remains a relevant phenomenon to many countries around the world today
(Simeon, 2013).
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, and the sheer size of its
population is its significant and distinctive feature. It is estimated that there
are about 180million people living in the country, and it is still growing by 2.5
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percent per year (Nigerian Tribune, 2015). Of the million strong population,
68million- plus are youths; a fair proportion you would say when considering
that 50 per cent of Ugandans are under the age of 15. However, the pace of
growth in the coming years is set to follow an even more explosive trend,
dictated by an army of virile youths. So it is logical that the Population
Reference Bureau (PRB), a U.S- based non-profit organization suggests the
Nigerian population would be hitting 400million by 2050 (Simeon,2013).
Nigeria’s population can be regarded as a very powerful tool in the area of
business; we are currently witnessing an inflow of foreign investments
targeting the country’s huge population. Olusegun Aganga, Minister of Trade
and Investment said that “Nigeria with its demographic figure (over 150
million) is a large market with strong workforce and a growing middle income
currently standing at 23 percent; it remains the destination to beat”
(business Day, 2012). However, this huge population can really be a big
problem.
The reason for this is that we need more infrastructure to carter for millions
of people, and in a country where the government if found wanting, then the
little facilities that are available will be shared by millions of people. We can
imagine a class which is built for 30 students holding over 100 students. The
same goes for hospitals, prisons and other social service centers
It is no secret that our dependence on petroleum and natural minerals as a
nation is legendary. This again is clearly evidenced by the report of the
National Bureau of Statistics which indicates that the export of mineral
resources made up 84 per cent of Nigeria’s total trade in 2012, while oil
accounted for 69.2 per cent (Simeon, 2013).
Skeptics believe we cannot keep up with the current 3.2 per cent growth rate
quoted by the National Population Commission. They fear that our narrow
economic structure will not hold against a surging youth driven population,
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thereby leading to an increase in the percentage of the active population
that is actively unemployed or at least underemployed and quite rightly so,
they fear the swelling numbers of jobless of uneducated youths would further
raise the entropy level of a country that already contends with the menace of
terrorism and tribal wars in the north; and oil theft, piracy and kidnapping in
the south.
In the face of a rapidly growing population, the current fiscal model
encourages governments at all levels to depend on revenue generated from
petroleum sector. The sharing formula, which ensures revenue trickles from
the federal government down to the local government and Wards has led to
a sort of redundancy. Many States, rely chiefly on the handouts in form of
allocation to run recurrent and capital expenditures, hence their economies
do not develop at the same rate with the population size.
The country’s rapid population growth, however, does not completely
translate to predictions of chaos. For every realist who thinks our resources
are fast shrinking and doomsday is calling, there is a balancing group of
opposites, who believe we are on the verge of an economic revolution.
Simeon (2013) believes we can grow our economy using human capital as a
resource. He counts on our numbers not as a weakness but as strength.
4.1 Rural- Urban migration: An overview
Migration processes have been in existence throughout all times and in all
regions of the world. While the original triggering in former times had been
the search for more favorable conditions and not yet or only sparsely
populated living spaces, patterns of migration underwent many changes
since industrialization. In Europe, the period in the 18 th century was marked
by a migration wave from the country side to urban areas in unprecedented
form and extent. But in comparison to European migration and urbanization
processes as we know them, developments in developing countries are of a
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whole different dimension. Population and rates of population growth are by
far higher than they had been in Europe which leads to increasing dynamic
urbanization but also severe side effects
Fischer (2009) argued that the increasing numbers of people moving toward
the large urban areas cause three things to happen:
I.
Urban growth which means that towns and cities are spatially expanding;
they cover an increasing area of land, mainly because there are not
enough housing facilities in the city itself so that new incomers often
have to move to shanty towns that are increasing in size and number.
Davis (2004) reports that “in Cairo and Phnom Penh, recent urban
arrivals squat or rent space on roof-tops; creating slum cities in the air
(p.13). Kaplan (1994) corroborated that “in cites in six West African
countries, I saw similar young men everywhere-hordes of them. They
were like loose molecules in a very unstable social fluid, a fluid that was
II.
clearly on the verge of igniting”
Urbanization which refers to the fact of a significant increase in the
proportion of people living in cities in total population. It is predominantly
the process by which towns and cities are formed and become larger as
more people begin living and working in central areas. It is predicted that
by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed
world will be urbanized. That is equivalent to approximately 3 billion
urbanites by 2050, much of which will occur in Africa and Asia (Wikipedia-
III.
the free encyclopedia)
Rural depopulation which usually means that large numbers of working
age population migrate from the countryside to earn more money in the
city. But then they leave behind the very old and the young, causing
further problems in rural development as the young, skilled adults are
missing. At the same time it has to be mentioned that rural urban
migration also can have a positive effect on the rural areas namely: by
the fact that many migrants once settled in a city remit to their family in
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the rural areas of origin-money that could contribute to further
development of the village of origin [St Dustan’s community school; in
Fischer, 2009].
At low levels of urbanization, migration is the prime engine driving city
growth as is now the case in much of Africa. As the urban base grows,
however, more and more migrants are required to match urban natural
increase, and the pattern reverses itself (Keyfitz, 1980, Rogers, 1984; in
Adebayo & Raheem, 2012). Therefore, although natural increase is
responsible for most urban growth in the Third World, the age- selectivity of
migrants (through their contribution to natural increase) as well as regional
variations in urbanization and development complicates this picture.
Structural forces that lead to rural- to –urban migration also vary by region.
In particular, although some emphasis has been placed on the appeal of
cities to potential migrants, considerably more attention has been devoted to
the interaction between agrarian structures, rural adversity and rural tourban migration. In Latin America, rural adversity arises primarily from
colonial heritage but also due to the commercialization of agriculture and
land speculation as a hedge against inflation (Oberai, 1983). In many regions
of Asia, population densities on arable land lead to diminishing returns and
excessive subdivision of peasant holdings. Consequently, there is gross
under investment and out migration from rural area of most African
countries. This is coupled with the generally poor infrastructural base of
villages in terms of availability of portable water, electricity and access roads
that serve to link villages with their farms and with markets
Akpomuvie (2012) quoting Otite (2002) noted that in most African countries,
immigrants in urban and rural areas retain cultural and social ties with their
houses. They maintain their primary social networks to which they return
sometime in their life or posthumously as enjoined by cultural practices. The
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migration pattern led Zarine (1968:49) quoted in Magubane (1978:183) to
conclude that:
These ties determine some aspect of their ideology,
organizational level and in the long run, the trend of the workers’
movement. The proletariat’s semi- peasant psychology hampers
the development of its class-consciousness, the emergence and
growth of its organizations and the dissemination of its ideology
4.2
Rural- urban migration in Nigeria
As Nigeria is predominantly rural, less than a quarter of the 160million live
in towns or urban setting. While the trend in Nigeria’s oil economy is
characterized by rural exodus, Nigeria’s rural oriented economy with the vast
majority of the population expending their labour force in agricultural
pursuits, it is nonetheless characterized with migration economy based on
the long history of Nigerian urbanization spree [Abbass, 2005].
The burden of rural-urban migration in Nigeria is multifaceted and
intertwining. As such, analysis of one factor such as unbearable population
density impinges on other issues within the identifiable cycle of burdens. For
instance, in examining the immediate effect of rural to urban migration
which is increase in population or at the extreme its explosion, various other
subsequent effects are expected to be considered. Congestion in households
and communities has implication for both health and psychology of victims.
Nigerian cities such as Lagos, Port-Harcourt, Kano and Onitsha among others
are characterized by human traffic, vehicular congestion, environmental
pollution, consistent in-migration and spurious expansion of territories to
accommodate human addition [Aworemi et al, 2011].
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4.2.1 Trends in Migration
It is therefore useful to set the present migration trend and urbanization in its
historical perspective, linking this to the stages and process of economic
development strategies in the country. In order to facilitate the movement of
cash crops from the hinterland to the coastal parts, a network of
transportation system was developed. Railways and roads were constructed
to connect the centers of production to the main ports of Lagos. “The railway
opened
up
regions
of
the
country;
it
facilitated
the
exchange
of
manufactured goods between urban and rural areas and stimulated the rapid
of expansion of market opportunities” [Ekundare, 1976; in Adebayo and
Raheem, 2012]
The following reasons account for why rural dwellers flee the countryside for
cities in Nigeria as presented by Adebayo & Raheem, 2012:
1. Displacement following infrastructure implantation: in the same
manner as the construction of dams, urban development of which the
capital, Abuja, is chief, has similarly displaced or dispossessed
numerous village communities. New infrastructure has paradoxical
effect; while displacing resident populations, it often attracts migrants
who
are
better
placed
to
take
advantage
of
new
economic
opportunities. This is most evident in the case of new roads and the
transformation of settlements along them, where traders and officials
come in and the original residents move out to the surrounding
countryside
2. Displacement following civil strife: Nigeria is both densely populated,
has large urban complexes and is driven by ethnic and religious
divisions, exacerbated by laissez-faire governance. As a consequence,
civil conflict is common and has indeed increased markedly under the
present democratic regime, partly because of local perceptions of the
self-absorption of politicians and officials. For example, the Boko Haram
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menace which has reduced North-East to a wilderness and the
ceaseless killings by Fulani herdsmen of Southern Kaduna indigenes.
The consequences are hardly ever investigated and documented
because this could present an image contrary to that considered
desirable by government. The victim population moves either to
3.
another area or goes to stay with relatives in towns.
Political and social cleaves: most West African economies have a high
demand for low- paid, unskilled labour; thus, the pattern of migration
tends to be of men aged 20-40 leaving a rural farm household, often
seasonally, for the city or the plantation. The common pattern in
Nigeria is north- south, where farmers take advantage of the long dry
season to work in areas of higher rainfall. Magubane (1978) puts it
better:
The African migrant labourers were not allowed to
break away completely form the “tribal” social
environment. Depending on the uncertain demand for
their labour in the mines and agro- industries, a great
many workers were forced to engage in subsistence
agriculture for part of the year and go to find
employment in towns, plantations, or mines for
another part of the year. The “partial” employment in
wage labour hampered the formation of a full-fledged
proletariat and caused intensive pauperization in the
labour reserve-countryside (p. 183).
4.2.2
Challenges of Rural-urban Migration in Nigeria
Rural-urban migration is a double-edge pattern affecting both the rural
community as well as the urban destination. The rural community is affected
in such a way that youths and adults that are supposed to remain and
contribute to the development of agriculture and the community in general
are no longer available in the rural areas. They move to urban areas in
search of non- available greener pastures and abandon farming activities
which they suppose not to be as lucrative as the ghost white-collar jobs in
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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8
the cities. Consequently, food production is greatly reduced and the Nigerian
government keeps importing food abroad (Aworemi et al, 2011).
In urban areas, increase in the population of urban dwellers tends to lead to
inadequate housing, poor education due to overcrowded schools, inadequate
health care facilities, increase in criminal activities, traffic problems, and few
employment opportunities. The disenfranchised communities of the urban
poor, in addition are vulnerable to sudden outbursts of state violence like the
infamous 1990 bulldozing of the Maroko beach slum in Lagos (an eye sore for
the neighbouring community of Victoria Island, a fortress for the rich)(Davis,
2004:17).
Kaplan (1994) also contends that:
Loose family or extended family (i.e polygamy)
structures are largely responsible for the world’s highest
birth rates and the explosion of the HIV virus on the
African continent. Like the communalism and animism,
they provide a weak shield against the corrosive social
effects of life in cities. In those cities, African culture is
being redefined while desertification and deforestation
also tied to overpopulation- drive more and more African
peasants out of countryside.
Finally, new generation migrants are usually young and lack experience in
the agricultural sector as well as in city life and face a variety of challenges.
Having migrated after limited years of schooling, migrants face high pressure
from work, low satisfaction in terms of their wages, unsure self-identity and
an overall lack of happiness. The tragic string of unannounced suicides in the
cities brought the challenges of these new-generation migrants into focus.
There are also indications that young migrant workers are at a greater risk of
falling victim to crime and may have higher rates of participation in crime
(Akpomuvie, 2012:83). Kaplan (1994) corroborates that in the village of
Africa, it is perfectly natural to feed at any table and lodge in any hut. But in
the cities, this communal existence no longer holds. You must pay for lodging
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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9
and be invited for food. When young-men find out their relations cannot put
them up, they become lost. They join other migrants and slip gradually in to
the criminal process.
4.2.3
The Way forward
Functional amenities such as pipe borne water, electricity, recreational
facilities should be provided in the rural areas; good educational facilities and
qualified teachers should be made available in the rural areas; agro-allied
industries must be set up in the rural areas in order to provide job
opportunities for rural dwellers so that migration to urban centers in search
of jobs will become less attractive. Although such services goes beyond mere
welfare functions of making educational, health and other social amenities
easily accessible to people living in rural areas. It includes in particular the
function of stimulating increased rural productivity through creating a
constantly expanding market for agricultural products and including farmers
to greater productive effort through making easily available to them a wide
range of consumer goods (Mabogunje, 1974).
Agricultural inputs and farming technology such as mechanization should be
introduced to the rural people to improve their production. Access roads
should be constructed to link rural communities with markets and credit
facilities also made available with relaxed terms and conditions.
In contemporary Nigeria, security of life and property constitute a major Push
factor in the migration from many communities reflected in the threatened or
collapsed security situation in many parts of the country. Thus, to reduce the
movement to cities from rural areas, security of people in rural communities
is paramount and must be pursued as a policy. Rural areas used to be envied
for their serenity and security. This is fast disappearing and being replaced
with chaos and sporadic killings by people who are meant to be neighbors
and friends.
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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0
Good governance must be fully entrenched in the country in order to arouse
the faith of the people both in rural and urban centers that the government
is capable of bettering their collective lots.
Finally incentives should be given to couple who agreed to have fewer
children as a way of discouraging polygamy and controlling birth rates in the
country.
Conclusion
Despite
the
rapid
predominantly
a
growth
rural
in
the
urbanization
environment.
Nigeria’s
process,
Nigeria
attainment
of
is
flag
independence in 1960 has, within more than five decades, attempted varied
strategies for rural development which none has been successful. Rural
society over time and within such strategies has continued to be neglected
and ignored. The chronic and alarming circumstances and influences
surrounding the rural Nigeria present a picturesque of threats of future
human settlement. The nature of the rural condition Vis-a-Vis the abundant
resources is thus a paradox.
Davis (2004) adds that “as a result, the twentieth century became an age,
not of urban revolution as classical Marxism had imagined, but of epochal
rural uprisings and peasant based wars of national liberation”. He further
submitted that:
Instead of being a focus for growth and prosperity, the
cities have become a dumping ground for a surplus
population working in unskilled, unprotected and lowwage informal service industries and trade. In contrast,
the informal sector of the economy, along with general
social inequality, has dramatically expanded.
References
Abbass, I.M (2005) “Trends of Rural-urban Migration in Nigeria.” European
Scientific Journal. Vol. 8, No.3 www.euJournal.org 15/11/2015
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
2
1
Adebayo, P.F & Raheem, U.A (2012)”Rural-urban Migration in Nigeria: Trends,
Patterns and Perspective”. National Development Studies Journal No.5
Akpomuvie, D.B (2012) “Rural-urban Migration and Crime in Nigeria:
Implications for Development”. An Interdisciplinary Journal of the
Nigerian sociological Society.Vol.2 No.1
Aworemi, J.R., Abdul-Azeez, I.A & Opoola, N.A (2011) “An appraisal of the
Factors Influencing Rural-urban Migration in Some Selected Local
Government Areas of Lagos State Nigeria”. Journal of Sustainable
Development. www.ccsenet.org Retrieved 15/11/2015
BusinessDay, Wednesday July1, 2012 p6. “Nigeria Tops Global Destination for
FDI”
Davis M (2004) Planet of Slums. New Left Review 26
Define population at Dictionary.com www.dictionary.reference.com (retrieved
10/11/2015)
Fischer, R. (2009) Rural-urban Migration. A necessity to survive. A Term
paper. www.m.grin.com Retrieved 10/11/2015
Jhingan, M.L (2007) The Economic of Development and Planning. New Delhi:
Vrinda Pulication (p) Ltd.
Kaplan, R.D (1994) The coming Anarchy (February issue). Center for a New
American Society.
Mabogunje, A.L ed (1973) Kainji: A Nigerian Man-made Lake. Vol.2: socioeconomic conditions. Ibadan: NISER
Magubane, B (1978) The Evolution of Class Structure in Africa. London: Sage
Publications
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
2
2
Nigerian Tribune July2, 2015. “Is Nigeria’s Population a blessing or curse?
www.trbuneonline.com 10/11/2015(retrieved)
Nosegbe, H (2012)Nigeria’s Population: Blessing or curse? www.ekekeee.com
10/11/2015( retrieved)
Oberai, A.S (1983) State Polities and Internal Migration: Studies in Market
and Planned Economies. London: Croom Helm
Puja
Mondal.
“Todaro’s
Theory
on
Rural-
urban
Migration”.
www.iproject.com.ng 10/11/2015(retrieved)
Simeon, G (2013) Nigeria’s Growing Populations: A blessing or curse?
www.georgesmon.com 10/11/2015(retrieved)
Urbanization-Wikipedia,
the
free
encyclopedia
https://www.en.m.wikipedia.org retrieved10/11/2015
What is population? Definition and meaning www.businessdictionary.com
13/11/2015 (retrieved)
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
2
3
BY
NANDE, MATTHEW TERSOO
[email protected]
+2348169671716
&
ABDULSALAM, OIZA RAHIMAT
[email protected]
+2348137240742
ABSTRACT
There are different reasons that cause rural-urban migration in Nigeria. They
are the so-called push and pull factors which can be seen as simultaneous
analysis of factors that attract migrants to urban areas. These determinants
are split up into economic and non-economic factors for easy understanding.
Todaro’s rural urban migration model is adopted here as a theoretical
framework to guide the discussion. Although the theory failed to capture
non-economic factors in explaining rural-urban migration, the paper
addressed such shortcomings. It was discovered that people who migrate
are usually the more educated, young and determined. Socio- economic
factors, such as better employment and educational opportunities, etc are
the main reasons for people to migrate to cities in Nigeria, although
insecurity has compounded the picture. The paper recommends that good
educational facilities and qualified teachers as well as agro-allied industries
must be set-up in rural areas in order to better living conditions of rural
dwellers.
Key Words: Population, Migration, Rural-urban Migration
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
0
Introduction
The dynamic nature of man is ably demonstrated in his ability to move from
place to place. This ability marks the fundamental feature of human
population. And by consequence, human population is distributed unevenly
across global space. Davis [2004] noted that “for the first time the urban
population of the earth will outnumber the rural. Indeed given the
imprecision of third world censuses, this transition may already have
occurred.” He stressed further that “cities have absorbed nearly two-third of
the global population explosion since 1950 and are currently growing by
million babies and migrants each week”.
The consequences of rapidly increasing population are to retard all
development efforts in an underdeveloped country unless accompanied by
high rates of capital accumulation, and technological progress. But these
counteracting factors are not available and the result is that population
explosion leads to declining agricultural productivity, low per capital income,
low living standard, mass unemployment, low rate of capital formation, and
adverse balance of payments [Jhingan, 2007].
Although, Akpomuvie [2012] believes that migration is necessary for growth.
He contends that “all countries attain economic growth through a transfer of
man power from rural and agricultural sector to urban and secondary or
tertiary sector.” However, migration of people from rural area far outstrips
services and infrastructure available in urban centres and this situation
results in deepening crises of slums, criminality, unemployment etc. The
after-effect of structural adjustment programme introduced in the 1980s by
the IMF has compounded the situation in Nigeria. Rural population moves out
in large number temporarily or permanently to towns and cities to seek out
new opportunities, improved living conditions, but end up in the city slums
with limited capacity to adapt to socio-economic changes in the new
environment they find themselves.
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
1
This paper recognizes that there are factors other than economic which
motivate people to relocate from rural to urban areas. In the light of this,
attempt is made to discuss the various factors responsible for rural-urban
migration in Nigeria, pointing out trends, challenges and the way forward.
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
2
1.0
Conceptual interpretation
1.1
Population
Population is a very central feature of any society, without which there can
be no society at all. Dictionary.references.com defines population as “the
total number of persons inhabiting a country, city or any district or area”.
Over the past 300 years, the population of nearly every major area in the
world has increased exponentially, so much so that certain places have
instituted incentives to couples who agreed to have fewer children
[businessdictionary.com]. That is to say that population is important for
growth and development of any society, but over population becomes a
menace to same societies as a result of social vices perpetrated by their
population.
1.2
Migration
Simply put, migration refers to the movement of people from one place to
another for the purpose of establishing permanent or temporary residence
[Adebayo and Raheem, 2012]. There are two types of migration: first internal
migration, referring to migration within the country, and secondary,
international migration, which means the movement from one country to
another. The reason for migration can be divided into two main aspects, the
so called “push” and “pull” factors.
Fischer [2009] argues that factors and determinants of migration are rather
diverse and they can be spilt up in economic and non- economic reasons:
1. Economic push factors such as unemployment and underemployment
in rural areas, low wages and no assets as well as lack of land which is
sometimes due to inheritance system that split the land among a large
number of people, making it less productive.
2. Non-economic push factors play an important role and mainly include a
poor rural infrastructure in general, i.e, poor living conditions referring
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
3
to housing, education possibilities and health care; furthermore,
aspects of agricultural change like modernization of farming, new
techniques and machines as well as economic reforms in general cause
less demand of labour in the agricultural sector and therefore causes
people to search for more job opportunities; additional factors that act
as push factors are natural disasters, drought or famine, war and
conflict [especially in Africa] that in most of the times affect rural areas
by destroying most of their belongings and farm land and therewith
their livelihood.
3. Economic pull factors include factors that attract people to move into
cities which are mainly the counterparts of the push factors: rural
migrants hope for employment and higher wages in the cities caused
by a higher demand of labour there in general, due to economic
growth.
4. Non-economic pull factors include social factors such as the hope for
better health care and education provision or the urban facilities and
way of life in general as well as protection from conflict, family reunion
and family networks [i.e. it is easier for people to migrate if they have
relatives in cities][ Gebhardt et al,2007:29 in Fischer, 2009].
Migration, both internal and international is a common feature of both
developing and developed countries. In Nigeria especially, both types of
migration continue to increase. Migration is an inevitable part of human
existence with a long history. However, its pattern has changed considerably
overtime, from the search for space, especially in the middle ages, to that of
congestion in large cities [rural-urban migration] in the modem age.
Akpomuvie [2012] quoting Otite [2002] identified four types of internal
migration: from urban to urban, urban to rural, rural to urban, and rural to
rural.
The urban to urban movement involve people who change or seek
employment conditions which provide comfortable living standards with
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
4
access to urban amenities. Urban to rural migration often result from
retrenchment from urban employment, employment in rural industrial or in
educational or other establishments. Those who migrate from the rural to
urban areas are generally in the majority, and this forms the nucleus of this
paper. These include people who have obtained a relatively high qualification
in the rural areas and are in search of white collar jobs for better income and
escape from the drudgery and boredom of rural life. Lastly, rural to rural
migrants are those who are comparatively weak in the competition for urban
employments as a result principally of their low education and incentives.
They remain in the rural environment where they use their physical strength
to exploit local economic resources.
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
5
1.3 Rural-Urban Migration
Rural-urban migration is a form of so-called internal migration which
means a movement within a country and which stays in contrast to
international or intercontinental migration [Fischer, 2009]. This refers to the
movement of people from the country side and rural areas respectively into
the cities, often the metropolitan cities of a country. Adebayo and Raheem,
[2012] quoting Stephens [2002] posited that by 2030 three-fifths of the
world population is expected to live in urban areas. This change of residence
is often connected with the migration of labour and a career change from
primary to second or third sector-not necessarily, though, as it can refer to
the migration of people who are not working in agriculture or farming as well.
2.0
Theoretical Framework
Puja Mondal provides a condensed version of Todaro’s theory on rural-urban
migration which is adopted here to explain rural urban migration in Nigeria.
Todaro accepts the logistics of Lewis-Fei-Ranis model of rural-urban migration
but only with reservations. According to Lewis, this theory may correspond to
the historical scenario in the western socio economic milieu but does not
explain the trends of rural-urban migration in less developed countries
The Lewis model assumes that there could be faster capital accumulation
which could be invested in modern industry causing new jobs in abundance.
It implies that there would be labour transfer at the rate proportional to
capital accumulation.
But Lewis and his followers could not foresee that it could be possible only
when technology would remain the same. But capital accumulation leads to
capital- intensive industrial expansion based on advanced technologies
which yield high economic growth but there would be lesser labour
absorption. The modern industry has limited labour absorption capacity.
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
6
Beside, Lewis’ assertion that rural sectors have surplus labour and urban
areas have full employment, does not hold true necessarily. Urban areas in
less developed countries in particular do not provide full employment. Davis
[2004] argued that IMF enforced policies of agricultural deregulation and ‘Depeasantization’ were accelerating the exodus of surplus rural labour to urban
slums even as cities ceased to be job machines.
Todaro’s model does not advocate simply the rural –urban wage differentials
as the basis of migration as is claimed in all migration theories. According to
him, the migrant is much rational and calculative in his decision to shift to a
particular city. He also takes into consideration not only the wage
differentials but also the probability of getting a job in the urban area.
Migration, thus, is determined more by rural-urban differences in expected
earnings, rather than in actual earnings
Francis Cherunilam, commenting on Todaro’s migration model, writes that
while the model is correct in holding that there is no possibility of full
employment in urban areas, it is not correct to assert that the act of
migration is always rational and well calculated. Todaro is also wrong in not
giving any importance to non-economic factors in the migration process.
Despite the stated shortcomings of the theory, the paper still finds it relevant
as a guide in explaining rural-urban migration in Nigeria. However the noneconomic factors responsible for rural-urban migration in Nigeria and the
non-rational decisions of migrants to shift base which the theory failed to
capture are well addressed in the course of the discussion
3.1 Population: A blessing or a curse? An overview
Many of the world’s remarkable innovations over the past 300 years are
attributable to population growth: more great minds leads to more
innovations. Assembly-line manufacturing itself is an adaptation to an
increasing population and the need for greater and faster out-put. More
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
7
people around the world are living longer lives than even a century earlier,
thanks to modern medical achievements. And while agricultural resources
are a very real concern as the world’s population grows, the world’s increase
in population is responsible for a greater consciousness of the need for
additional resource as well as the innovations to produce food at the pace of
population growth [Ova, 2013].
The dangers of unrestrained population growth, especially when it is not
accompanied by commensurate human capital development and equity in
income distribution and economic opportunity are well documented. In his
classic book “The Population Bomb” published in 1968, U.S biologist and
environmentalist Paul R. Ehrlich likened unchecked population growth to
cancer, stating that “a cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the
population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people” [in Nosegbe,
2012].
The danger here is the risk of population growth outstripping the
capacity of the environment to support the populace and the capacity of
government to make the necessary investment in infrastructure, housing,
healthcare, agriculture and education to ensure that each can live a decent
and comfortable life.
In 2011, the world population hit 7billions, with china in all its demographic
splendor accounting for a fifth part of the figure. Future projections show that
India, another mega nation from Asia, is set to take over from China as the
most populous country come 2028. The world population is expected to have
crossed 8 billion by then, fueled largely by Asian and African populations as
western countries such as Britain and the United States appear to have
found a way to effectively control the growth of their populations (Simeon,
2013)
Jhingan,(2007) posited that population growth affects economic development
in two ways: first, by promoting economic development and second, by
retarding economic development.
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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I.
A. Factors Promoting Economic Development.
Increase in per capita product: Prof. Kuznets in his study, modern
economic Growth has pointed out that substantial rates of population
growth in Europe have led to high rates of increase in total product and
II.
per capita product.
Rise in labour productivity: the rise in the rate of per capita is the result
of the rise in labour productivity. It is improvements in the quality of
III.
labour which increases productivity per unit of labour.
Population Growth leads to Growth of physical capital;- It has been
proved by recent researches that the growth of physical capital stocks
depends to a considerable extent on human capital formation which is the
“process of increasing
IV.
knowledge, the skills and the capacities of all
people of the country”
Population Growth leads to Age of high mass consumption:- Rostow has
shown in his stages of economic growth that the development of “leading
sector” due to the increase in the effective demand for their products
have paved the way for the age of high mass consumption through which
V.
almost all developed countries are passing.
Population growth as a source of capital formation:- according to Nurkse
and Lewis, high population growth can be a source of capital formation in
underdeveloped countries. Nurkse points out that underdeveloped
countries suffer from disguised unemployment on a mass scale. This
surplus labour force can be put to work on capital projects like irrigation,
I.
drainage roads, railways, houses, etc
B. Factors Retarding Economic Development.
Investment:- Economic development depends upon investment. In UDCs
the resources available for investment are limited. Therefore, rapid
population
II.
growth
retards
investment
needed
for
higher
future
consumption.
Overuse of Resources:- Rapid population growth tends to overuse the
country’s natural resources. Consequently many households continue to
III.
live in poverty.
Urbanization:- with rapidly growing population, it becomes difficult to
manage the adjustments that accompany economic and social change.
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
9
IV.
Per Capita Income:- The effect of population growth on per capita income
is unfavorable. The growth of population tends to retard the per capita
income in three ways:
i.
It increases the pressure of population on land;
ii.
It leads to rise in costs of consumption goods because of the scarcity
iii.
of the cooperant factors to increase their supplies
It leads to a decline in the accumulation of capital because with
increase in family members, expenses increase. These adverse effect
of population growth on per capital income operate more severely if
the percentage of children in the total population is high, as is
V.
actually the case in all UDCs.
Standard of Living:- A rapidly increasing population leads to an increased
demand for food products, clothes, houses, etc. But their supplies cannot
be increased in the short run due to the lack of cooperant factors like raw
materials, skilled labour, capital, etc. Consequently, their costs and prices
VI.
rise which raise the cost of living of the masses
Agricultural Development:- in UDCs, people mostly live in rural areas.
Agriculture is their main occupation. As the number of landless workers
increases, their wages fall. This low per capita productivity reduces the
VII.
propensity to save and invest.
Employment:- a rapidly increasing population plunges the economy into
mass unemployment and underemployment. The result is that with the
increase in labour force, unemployment and underemployment increases.
As the labour force increase in relation to land, capital and other
VIII.
resources, complementary factors available per worker decline.
Social infrastructure:- Rapidly growing population necessitate large
investment in social infrastructure and diverts resources from directly
productive assets. Due to the scarcity of resources, it is not possible to
provide educational, health, medical, transport and housing facilities to
IX.
the entire population. There is overcrowding everywhere
Labour Force:- The labour force in an economy is the ratio of working
population to total population. Assuming 50 years as the average life
expectancy in an underdeveloped country, the labour force is in effect the
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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0
number of people in the age- group of 15-50years. The result is that a
larger percentage of the total population is in the low age-group of 115years. This means that the addition to the lower age-group is larger
than in the working age-group. A large percentage of children in the
X.
labour force is a heavy burden on the economy
Environment:- Scarcity of land due to rapidly increasing population pushes
large number of people to ecologically sensitive areas such hillsides and
tropical forests. It also leads to overgrazing and cutting of forests for
XI.
cultivation leading to severe environmental change.
World Economy:- Rapid population growth also affects UDCs in relation to
the world economy in a number of ways:- first, rapid population growth
tends to increase income disparities between UDCs and developed
countries because the per capita incomes decline with growth in number
in the former. Second, rapid population growth encourages international
migration. (But the developed countries place restrictions on immigration
because labour from poor countries adversely affects the wages of native
workers and also create social and political tensions). Third, emigration
tends to increase wages of workers substantially at home. Fourth, another
beneficial effect of this is that emigrants remit large sums of money back
home. This increase family income and their living standard at home.
3.2
Population: A blessing or a curse? The Nigerian experience
The issue of Nigeria’s fast – rising population, despite being the topic of
public discourse in recent times, still has not received the attention it
deserves from appropriate quarters. But population explosion in itself
remains a relevant phenomenon to many countries around the world today
(Simeon, 2013).
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, and the sheer size of its
population is its significant and distinctive feature. It is estimated that there
are about 180million people living in the country, and it is still growing by 2.5
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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1
percent per year (Nigerian Tribune, 2015). Of the million strong population,
68million- plus are youths; a fair proportion you would say when considering
that 50 per cent of Ugandans are under the age of 15. However, the pace of
growth in the coming years is set to follow an even more explosive trend,
dictated by an army of virile youths. So it is logical that the Population
Reference Bureau (PRB), a U.S- based non-profit organization suggests the
Nigerian population would be hitting 400million by 2050 (Simeon,2013).
Nigeria’s population can be regarded as a very powerful tool in the area of
business; we are currently witnessing an inflow of foreign investments
targeting the country’s huge population. Olusegun Aganga, Minister of Trade
and Investment said that “Nigeria with its demographic figure (over 150
million) is a large market with strong workforce and a growing middle income
currently standing at 23 percent; it remains the destination to beat”
(business Day, 2012). However, this huge population can really be a big
problem.
The reason for this is that we need more infrastructure to carter for millions
of people, and in a country where the government if found wanting, then the
little facilities that are available will be shared by millions of people. We can
imagine a class which is built for 30 students holding over 100 students. The
same goes for hospitals, prisons and other social service centers
It is no secret that our dependence on petroleum and natural minerals as a
nation is legendary. This again is clearly evidenced by the report of the
National Bureau of Statistics which indicates that the export of mineral
resources made up 84 per cent of Nigeria’s total trade in 2012, while oil
accounted for 69.2 per cent (Simeon, 2013).
Skeptics believe we cannot keep up with the current 3.2 per cent growth rate
quoted by the National Population Commission. They fear that our narrow
economic structure will not hold against a surging youth driven population,
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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2
thereby leading to an increase in the percentage of the active population
that is actively unemployed or at least underemployed and quite rightly so,
they fear the swelling numbers of jobless of uneducated youths would further
raise the entropy level of a country that already contends with the menace of
terrorism and tribal wars in the north; and oil theft, piracy and kidnapping in
the south.
In the face of a rapidly growing population, the current fiscal model
encourages governments at all levels to depend on revenue generated from
petroleum sector. The sharing formula, which ensures revenue trickles from
the federal government down to the local government and Wards has led to
a sort of redundancy. Many States, rely chiefly on the handouts in form of
allocation to run recurrent and capital expenditures, hence their economies
do not develop at the same rate with the population size.
The country’s rapid population growth, however, does not completely
translate to predictions of chaos. For every realist who thinks our resources
are fast shrinking and doomsday is calling, there is a balancing group of
opposites, who believe we are on the verge of an economic revolution.
Simeon (2013) believes we can grow our economy using human capital as a
resource. He counts on our numbers not as a weakness but as strength.
4.1 Rural- Urban migration: An overview
Migration processes have been in existence throughout all times and in all
regions of the world. While the original triggering in former times had been
the search for more favorable conditions and not yet or only sparsely
populated living spaces, patterns of migration underwent many changes
since industrialization. In Europe, the period in the 18 th century was marked
by a migration wave from the country side to urban areas in unprecedented
form and extent. But in comparison to European migration and urbanization
processes as we know them, developments in developing countries are of a
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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3
whole different dimension. Population and rates of population growth are by
far higher than they had been in Europe which leads to increasing dynamic
urbanization but also severe side effects
Fischer (2009) argued that the increasing numbers of people moving toward
the large urban areas cause three things to happen:
I.
Urban growth which means that towns and cities are spatially expanding;
they cover an increasing area of land, mainly because there are not
enough housing facilities in the city itself so that new incomers often
have to move to shanty towns that are increasing in size and number.
Davis (2004) reports that “in Cairo and Phnom Penh, recent urban
arrivals squat or rent space on roof-tops; creating slum cities in the air
(p.13). Kaplan (1994) corroborated that “in cites in six West African
countries, I saw similar young men everywhere-hordes of them. They
were like loose molecules in a very unstable social fluid, a fluid that was
II.
clearly on the verge of igniting”
Urbanization which refers to the fact of a significant increase in the
proportion of people living in cities in total population. It is predominantly
the process by which towns and cities are formed and become larger as
more people begin living and working in central areas. It is predicted that
by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed
world will be urbanized. That is equivalent to approximately 3 billion
urbanites by 2050, much of which will occur in Africa and Asia (Wikipedia-
III.
the free encyclopedia)
Rural depopulation which usually means that large numbers of working
age population migrate from the countryside to earn more money in the
city. But then they leave behind the very old and the young, causing
further problems in rural development as the young, skilled adults are
missing. At the same time it has to be mentioned that rural urban
migration also can have a positive effect on the rural areas namely: by
the fact that many migrants once settled in a city remit to their family in
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the rural areas of origin-money that could contribute to further
development of the village of origin [St Dustan’s community school; in
Fischer, 2009].
At low levels of urbanization, migration is the prime engine driving city
growth as is now the case in much of Africa. As the urban base grows,
however, more and more migrants are required to match urban natural
increase, and the pattern reverses itself (Keyfitz, 1980, Rogers, 1984; in
Adebayo & Raheem, 2012). Therefore, although natural increase is
responsible for most urban growth in the Third World, the age- selectivity of
migrants (through their contribution to natural increase) as well as regional
variations in urbanization and development complicates this picture.
Structural forces that lead to rural- to –urban migration also vary by region.
In particular, although some emphasis has been placed on the appeal of
cities to potential migrants, considerably more attention has been devoted to
the interaction between agrarian structures, rural adversity and rural tourban migration. In Latin America, rural adversity arises primarily from
colonial heritage but also due to the commercialization of agriculture and
land speculation as a hedge against inflation (Oberai, 1983). In many regions
of Asia, population densities on arable land lead to diminishing returns and
excessive subdivision of peasant holdings. Consequently, there is gross
under investment and out migration from rural area of most African
countries. This is coupled with the generally poor infrastructural base of
villages in terms of availability of portable water, electricity and access roads
that serve to link villages with their farms and with markets
Akpomuvie (2012) quoting Otite (2002) noted that in most African countries,
immigrants in urban and rural areas retain cultural and social ties with their
houses. They maintain their primary social networks to which they return
sometime in their life or posthumously as enjoined by cultural practices. The
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migration pattern led Zarine (1968:49) quoted in Magubane (1978:183) to
conclude that:
These ties determine some aspect of their ideology,
organizational level and in the long run, the trend of the workers’
movement. The proletariat’s semi- peasant psychology hampers
the development of its class-consciousness, the emergence and
growth of its organizations and the dissemination of its ideology
4.2
Rural- urban migration in Nigeria
As Nigeria is predominantly rural, less than a quarter of the 160million live
in towns or urban setting. While the trend in Nigeria’s oil economy is
characterized by rural exodus, Nigeria’s rural oriented economy with the vast
majority of the population expending their labour force in agricultural
pursuits, it is nonetheless characterized with migration economy based on
the long history of Nigerian urbanization spree [Abbass, 2005].
The burden of rural-urban migration in Nigeria is multifaceted and
intertwining. As such, analysis of one factor such as unbearable population
density impinges on other issues within the identifiable cycle of burdens. For
instance, in examining the immediate effect of rural to urban migration
which is increase in population or at the extreme its explosion, various other
subsequent effects are expected to be considered. Congestion in households
and communities has implication for both health and psychology of victims.
Nigerian cities such as Lagos, Port-Harcourt, Kano and Onitsha among others
are characterized by human traffic, vehicular congestion, environmental
pollution, consistent in-migration and spurious expansion of territories to
accommodate human addition [Aworemi et al, 2011].
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4.2.1 Trends in Migration
It is therefore useful to set the present migration trend and urbanization in its
historical perspective, linking this to the stages and process of economic
development strategies in the country. In order to facilitate the movement of
cash crops from the hinterland to the coastal parts, a network of
transportation system was developed. Railways and roads were constructed
to connect the centers of production to the main ports of Lagos. “The railway
opened
up
regions
of
the
country;
it
facilitated
the
exchange
of
manufactured goods between urban and rural areas and stimulated the rapid
of expansion of market opportunities” [Ekundare, 1976; in Adebayo and
Raheem, 2012]
The following reasons account for why rural dwellers flee the countryside for
cities in Nigeria as presented by Adebayo & Raheem, 2012:
1. Displacement following infrastructure implantation: in the same
manner as the construction of dams, urban development of which the
capital, Abuja, is chief, has similarly displaced or dispossessed
numerous village communities. New infrastructure has paradoxical
effect; while displacing resident populations, it often attracts migrants
who
are
better
placed
to
take
advantage
of
new
economic
opportunities. This is most evident in the case of new roads and the
transformation of settlements along them, where traders and officials
come in and the original residents move out to the surrounding
countryside
2. Displacement following civil strife: Nigeria is both densely populated,
has large urban complexes and is driven by ethnic and religious
divisions, exacerbated by laissez-faire governance. As a consequence,
civil conflict is common and has indeed increased markedly under the
present democratic regime, partly because of local perceptions of the
self-absorption of politicians and officials. For example, the Boko Haram
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menace which has reduced North-East to a wilderness and the
ceaseless killings by Fulani herdsmen of Southern Kaduna indigenes.
The consequences are hardly ever investigated and documented
because this could present an image contrary to that considered
desirable by government. The victim population moves either to
3.
another area or goes to stay with relatives in towns.
Political and social cleaves: most West African economies have a high
demand for low- paid, unskilled labour; thus, the pattern of migration
tends to be of men aged 20-40 leaving a rural farm household, often
seasonally, for the city or the plantation. The common pattern in
Nigeria is north- south, where farmers take advantage of the long dry
season to work in areas of higher rainfall. Magubane (1978) puts it
better:
The African migrant labourers were not allowed to
break away completely form the “tribal” social
environment. Depending on the uncertain demand for
their labour in the mines and agro- industries, a great
many workers were forced to engage in subsistence
agriculture for part of the year and go to find
employment in towns, plantations, or mines for
another part of the year. The “partial” employment in
wage labour hampered the formation of a full-fledged
proletariat and caused intensive pauperization in the
labour reserve-countryside (p. 183).
4.2.2
Challenges of Rural-urban Migration in Nigeria
Rural-urban migration is a double-edge pattern affecting both the rural
community as well as the urban destination. The rural community is affected
in such a way that youths and adults that are supposed to remain and
contribute to the development of agriculture and the community in general
are no longer available in the rural areas. They move to urban areas in
search of non- available greener pastures and abandon farming activities
which they suppose not to be as lucrative as the ghost white-collar jobs in
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the cities. Consequently, food production is greatly reduced and the Nigerian
government keeps importing food abroad (Aworemi et al, 2011).
In urban areas, increase in the population of urban dwellers tends to lead to
inadequate housing, poor education due to overcrowded schools, inadequate
health care facilities, increase in criminal activities, traffic problems, and few
employment opportunities. The disenfranchised communities of the urban
poor, in addition are vulnerable to sudden outbursts of state violence like the
infamous 1990 bulldozing of the Maroko beach slum in Lagos (an eye sore for
the neighbouring community of Victoria Island, a fortress for the rich)(Davis,
2004:17).
Kaplan (1994) also contends that:
Loose family or extended family (i.e polygamy)
structures are largely responsible for the world’s highest
birth rates and the explosion of the HIV virus on the
African continent. Like the communalism and animism,
they provide a weak shield against the corrosive social
effects of life in cities. In those cities, African culture is
being redefined while desertification and deforestation
also tied to overpopulation- drive more and more African
peasants out of countryside.
Finally, new generation migrants are usually young and lack experience in
the agricultural sector as well as in city life and face a variety of challenges.
Having migrated after limited years of schooling, migrants face high pressure
from work, low satisfaction in terms of their wages, unsure self-identity and
an overall lack of happiness. The tragic string of unannounced suicides in the
cities brought the challenges of these new-generation migrants into focus.
There are also indications that young migrant workers are at a greater risk of
falling victim to crime and may have higher rates of participation in crime
(Akpomuvie, 2012:83). Kaplan (1994) corroborates that in the village of
Africa, it is perfectly natural to feed at any table and lodge in any hut. But in
the cities, this communal existence no longer holds. You must pay for lodging
NANDE, M.T & ABDULSALM, O.R
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and be invited for food. When young-men find out their relations cannot put
them up, they become lost. They join other migrants and slip gradually in to
the criminal process.
4.2.3
The Way forward
Functional amenities such as pipe borne water, electricity, recreational
facilities should be provided in the rural areas; good educational facilities and
qualified teachers should be made available in the rural areas; agro-allied
industries must be set up in the rural areas in order to provide job
opportunities for rural dwellers so that migration to urban centers in search
of jobs will become less attractive. Although such services goes beyond mere
welfare functions of making educational, health and other social amenities
easily accessible to people living in rural areas. It includes in particular the
function of stimulating increased rural productivity through creating a
constantly expanding market for agricultural products and including farmers
to greater productive effort through making easily available to them a wide
range of consumer goods (Mabogunje, 1974).
Agricultural inputs and farming technology such as mechanization should be
introduced to the rural people to improve their production. Access roads
should be constructed to link rural communities with markets and credit
facilities also made available with relaxed terms and conditions.
In contemporary Nigeria, security of life and property constitute a major Push
factor in the migration from many communities reflected in the threatened or
collapsed security situation in many parts of the country. Thus, to reduce the
movement to cities from rural areas, security of people in rural communities
is paramount and must be pursued as a policy. Rural areas used to be envied
for their serenity and security. This is fast disappearing and being replaced
with chaos and sporadic killings by people who are meant to be neighbors
and friends.
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0
Good governance must be fully entrenched in the country in order to arouse
the faith of the people both in rural and urban centers that the government
is capable of bettering their collective lots.
Finally incentives should be given to couple who agreed to have fewer
children as a way of discouraging polygamy and controlling birth rates in the
country.
Conclusion
Despite
the
rapid
predominantly
a
growth
rural
in
the
urbanization
environment.
Nigeria’s
process,
Nigeria
attainment
of
is
flag
independence in 1960 has, within more than five decades, attempted varied
strategies for rural development which none has been successful. Rural
society over time and within such strategies has continued to be neglected
and ignored. The chronic and alarming circumstances and influences
surrounding the rural Nigeria present a picturesque of threats of future
human settlement. The nature of the rural condition Vis-a-Vis the abundant
resources is thus a paradox.
Davis (2004) adds that “as a result, the twentieth century became an age,
not of urban revolution as classical Marxism had imagined, but of epochal
rural uprisings and peasant based wars of national liberation”. He further
submitted that:
Instead of being a focus for growth and prosperity, the
cities have become a dumping ground for a surplus
population working in unskilled, unprotected and lowwage informal service industries and trade. In contrast,
the informal sector of the economy, along with general
social inequality, has dramatically expanded.
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