S IKOR 1100252 Table of content
DAFTAR ISI
ABSTRAK
........................................................................................................
i
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................
ii
KATA PENGANTAR .........................................................................................
iii
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ................................................................................
iv
DAFTAR ISI .......................................................................................................
vi
DAFTAR TABEL .............................................................................................. viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR ...........................................................................................
ix
BAB I PENDAHULUAN .....................................................................................
1
1.1
Latar Belakang ............................................................................................
1
1.2
Rumusan Masalah .......................................................................................
5
1.3
Tujuan .........................................................................................................
6
1.4
Batasan Masalah .........................................................................................
6
1.5
Manfaat Penelitian ......................................................................................
7
1.6
Sistematika Penulisan .................................................................................
7
BAB II KAJIAN PUSTAKA ...............................................................................
9
2.1
Peramalan ....................................................................................................
9
2.2
Jenis Data Peramalan ..................................................................................
11
2.3
Tahapan Peramalan .....................................................................................
13
2.4
Stasioneritas Data ........................................................................................
14
2.5
Kesalahan Peramalan ..................................................................................
15
2.6
Jenis Pola Data ............................................................................................
17
2.7
Metode Smoothing ......................................................................................
19
2.8
Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (Winter) .........................................
20
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
vi
BAB III METODE PENELITIAN ......................................................................
30
3.1
Desain Penelitian .........................................................................................
30
3.2
Metode Penelitian .......................................................................................
31
3.2.1 Metode Pengumpulan Data ..................................................................
31
3.2.2 Metode Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak ............................................
31
3.3
Alat dan Bahan Penelitian ...........................................................................
32
3.3.1 Alat Penelitian ......................................................................................
32
3.3.2 Bahan Penelitian ...................................................................................
33
BAB IV HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN .............................................................
34
4.1
Hasil Penelitian ...........................................................................................
34
4.1.1 Tahap Analisis ......................................................................................
34
4.1.2 Tahap Desain ........................................................................................
35
4.1.3 Tahap Pengembangan ...........................................................................
38
4.1.4 Tahap Implementasi .............................................................................
47
4.1.5 Pengujian Data ......................................................................................
51
4.2
Pembahasan Penelitian ................................................................................
54
4.2.1 Tahap Analisis ......................................................................................
54
4.2.2 Tahap Desain ........................................................................................
55
4.2.3 Tahap Pengembangan ...........................................................................
76
4.2.4 Tahap Implementasi .............................................................................
77
4.2.5 Pengujian Data ......................................................................................
78
BAB V KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN ...............................................................
80
5.1
Kesimpulan .................................................................................................
80
5.2
Saran ............................................................................................................
81
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ..........................................................................................
82
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
vii
LAMPIRAN
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
viii
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 2.1. Kriteria MAPE (Makridakis, 1999) ....................................................
16
Tabel 2.2. Data Jumlah Penumpang Kapal Roro .................................................
22
Tabel 2.3. Nilai Inisialisasi ..................................................................................
25
Tabel 2.4. Nilai Pemulusan ..................................................................................
26
Tabel 2.5. Hasil Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kapal Roro ..............................
28
Tabel 4.1. Nilai Optimal Alpha, Beta dan Gamma ..............................................
37
Tabel 4.2. Hasil Pengujian Sistem Menggunakan Black Box Testing .................
43
Tabel 4.3. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Argo Wilis 2015 ......................................................................
51
Tabel 4.4. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Turangga 2015 .........................................................................
52
Tabel 4.5. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Mutiara selatan 2015 ..............................................................
52
Tabel 4.6. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Pasundan 2015 ........................................................................
53
Tabel 4.7. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Kahuripan 2015 ......................................................................
53
Tabel 4.8. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Argo Wilis .
58
Tabel 4.9. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Turangga ...
58
Tabel 4.10. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Mutiara
Selatan ...............................................................................................
58
Tabel 4.11. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Pasundan .
59
Tabel 4.12. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kahuripan ............
59
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
ix
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
x
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 2.1. Plot Horizontal .................................................................................
17
Gambar 2.2. Plot Musiman ..................................................................................
18
Gambar 2.3. Plot Siklis ........................................................................................
18
Gambar 2.4. Plot Trend ........................................................................................
18
Gambar 3.1. Desain Penelitian .............................................................................
30
Gambar 3.2. Model Sekuensial Linear Menurut Pressman ..................................
31
Gambar 4.1. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Argo Wilis ................................
36
Gambar 4.2. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Turangga ...................................
36
Gambar 4.3. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Mutiara Selatan .........................
36
Gambar 4.4. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Pasundan ...................................
37
Gambar 4.5. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Kahuripan .................................
37
Gambar 4.6. Prototipe Halaman Input Data History ..........................................
39
Gambar 4.7. Prototipe Halaman Edit Data History ...........................................
40
Gambar 4.8. Prototipe Halaman Menu Forecasting ..........................................
40
Gambar 4.9. Prototipe Halaman Tampil History Data ......................................
41
Gambar 4.10. Prototipe Halaman Tampil Data Ramalan ..................................
41
Gambar 4.11. Prototipe Halaman Awal Menu History Forecasting .................
41
Gambar 4.12. Prototipe Tampilan Lihat History Forecasting ...........................
41
Gambar 4.13. Entity Relationalship Diagram (ERD) Sistem ............................
42
Gambar 4.14. Halaman Utama Sistem peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api
Gambar 4.15. Halaman Awal Menu History Data ............................................
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
xi
47
48
Gambar 4.16. Halaman Input History Data .......................................................
48
Gambar 4.17. Halaman Edit History Data .........................................................
49
Gambar 4.18. Halaman Menu Forecasting ........................................................
49
Gambar 4.19. Halaman Hasil Forecasting .........................................................
50
Gambar 4.20. Tabel Detail Peramalan pada Halaman Hasil Forecasting .........
50
Gambar 4.21. Halaman Menu History Forecasting ...........................................
50
Gambar 4.22. Halaman Tampilan History Forecasting .....................................
51
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
xii
ABSTRAK
........................................................................................................
i
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................
ii
KATA PENGANTAR .........................................................................................
iii
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ................................................................................
iv
DAFTAR ISI .......................................................................................................
vi
DAFTAR TABEL .............................................................................................. viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR ...........................................................................................
ix
BAB I PENDAHULUAN .....................................................................................
1
1.1
Latar Belakang ............................................................................................
1
1.2
Rumusan Masalah .......................................................................................
5
1.3
Tujuan .........................................................................................................
6
1.4
Batasan Masalah .........................................................................................
6
1.5
Manfaat Penelitian ......................................................................................
7
1.6
Sistematika Penulisan .................................................................................
7
BAB II KAJIAN PUSTAKA ...............................................................................
9
2.1
Peramalan ....................................................................................................
9
2.2
Jenis Data Peramalan ..................................................................................
11
2.3
Tahapan Peramalan .....................................................................................
13
2.4
Stasioneritas Data ........................................................................................
14
2.5
Kesalahan Peramalan ..................................................................................
15
2.6
Jenis Pola Data ............................................................................................
17
2.7
Metode Smoothing ......................................................................................
19
2.8
Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (Winter) .........................................
20
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
vi
BAB III METODE PENELITIAN ......................................................................
30
3.1
Desain Penelitian .........................................................................................
30
3.2
Metode Penelitian .......................................................................................
31
3.2.1 Metode Pengumpulan Data ..................................................................
31
3.2.2 Metode Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak ............................................
31
3.3
Alat dan Bahan Penelitian ...........................................................................
32
3.3.1 Alat Penelitian ......................................................................................
32
3.3.2 Bahan Penelitian ...................................................................................
33
BAB IV HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN .............................................................
34
4.1
Hasil Penelitian ...........................................................................................
34
4.1.1 Tahap Analisis ......................................................................................
34
4.1.2 Tahap Desain ........................................................................................
35
4.1.3 Tahap Pengembangan ...........................................................................
38
4.1.4 Tahap Implementasi .............................................................................
47
4.1.5 Pengujian Data ......................................................................................
51
4.2
Pembahasan Penelitian ................................................................................
54
4.2.1 Tahap Analisis ......................................................................................
54
4.2.2 Tahap Desain ........................................................................................
55
4.2.3 Tahap Pengembangan ...........................................................................
76
4.2.4 Tahap Implementasi .............................................................................
77
4.2.5 Pengujian Data ......................................................................................
78
BAB V KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN ...............................................................
80
5.1
Kesimpulan .................................................................................................
80
5.2
Saran ............................................................................................................
81
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ..........................................................................................
82
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
vii
LAMPIRAN
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
viii
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 2.1. Kriteria MAPE (Makridakis, 1999) ....................................................
16
Tabel 2.2. Data Jumlah Penumpang Kapal Roro .................................................
22
Tabel 2.3. Nilai Inisialisasi ..................................................................................
25
Tabel 2.4. Nilai Pemulusan ..................................................................................
26
Tabel 2.5. Hasil Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kapal Roro ..............................
28
Tabel 4.1. Nilai Optimal Alpha, Beta dan Gamma ..............................................
37
Tabel 4.2. Hasil Pengujian Sistem Menggunakan Black Box Testing .................
43
Tabel 4.3. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Argo Wilis 2015 ......................................................................
51
Tabel 4.4. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Turangga 2015 .........................................................................
52
Tabel 4.5. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Mutiara selatan 2015 ..............................................................
52
Tabel 4.6. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Pasundan 2015 ........................................................................
53
Tabel 4.7. Perbandingan Hasil Ramalan dengan Data Aktual Jumlah Penumpang
Kereta Kahuripan 2015 ......................................................................
53
Tabel 4.8. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Argo Wilis .
58
Tabel 4.9. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Turangga ...
58
Tabel 4.10. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Mutiara
Selatan ...............................................................................................
58
Tabel 4.11. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kereta Pasundan .
59
Tabel 4.12. Perbandingan Hasil Uji Coba Model Peramalan Kahuripan ............
59
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
ix
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
x
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 2.1. Plot Horizontal .................................................................................
17
Gambar 2.2. Plot Musiman ..................................................................................
18
Gambar 2.3. Plot Siklis ........................................................................................
18
Gambar 2.4. Plot Trend ........................................................................................
18
Gambar 3.1. Desain Penelitian .............................................................................
30
Gambar 3.2. Model Sekuensial Linear Menurut Pressman ..................................
31
Gambar 4.1. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Argo Wilis ................................
36
Gambar 4.2. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Turangga ...................................
36
Gambar 4.3. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Mutiara Selatan .........................
36
Gambar 4.4. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Pasundan ...................................
37
Gambar 4.5. Kecenderungan Data Penumpang Kahuripan .................................
37
Gambar 4.6. Prototipe Halaman Input Data History ..........................................
39
Gambar 4.7. Prototipe Halaman Edit Data History ...........................................
40
Gambar 4.8. Prototipe Halaman Menu Forecasting ..........................................
40
Gambar 4.9. Prototipe Halaman Tampil History Data ......................................
41
Gambar 4.10. Prototipe Halaman Tampil Data Ramalan ..................................
41
Gambar 4.11. Prototipe Halaman Awal Menu History Forecasting .................
41
Gambar 4.12. Prototipe Tampilan Lihat History Forecasting ...........................
41
Gambar 4.13. Entity Relationalship Diagram (ERD) Sistem ............................
42
Gambar 4.14. Halaman Utama Sistem peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api
Gambar 4.15. Halaman Awal Menu History Data ............................................
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
xi
47
48
Gambar 4.16. Halaman Input History Data .......................................................
48
Gambar 4.17. Halaman Edit History Data .........................................................
49
Gambar 4.18. Halaman Menu Forecasting ........................................................
49
Gambar 4.19. Halaman Hasil Forecasting .........................................................
50
Gambar 4.20. Tabel Detail Peramalan pada Halaman Hasil Forecasting .........
50
Gambar 4.21. Halaman Menu History Forecasting ...........................................
50
Gambar 4.22. Halaman Tampilan History Forecasting .....................................
51
Ida Parida, 2016
MENGUKUR EFEKTIFITAS METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (WINTER) DALAM
SISTEM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN OPTIMALISASI NILAI ALPHA, BETA DAN
GAMMA
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
xii