ASII 130716 Company Update

Company Update
Astra International

1H13 sales volume

16-Jul-13
Ticker
Price
Target Price
Recommendation
Upside (Downside)
Market Cap (Rptn)
Issued Share (mn share)

ASII
6,650
8,200
BUY
23%
268.4
40,353.8


Shareholders
Jardine Cycle & Carriage
Public

%
50.1%
49.9%

Revenue (RPbn)
EBITDA (Rpbn)
Net Profit (Rpbn)
EPS (Rp)
Gross Margin (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
Net Gearing (x)

2012
188,053

24,905
19,421
481
19.2
13.2
10.3
0.6

2013F
190,697
24,092
19,629
486
19.3
12.6
10.3
0.4

Astra International’s (ASII) 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by 6.5% YoY to 321,184
units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY growth during the

same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased to 53.4% in 1H13
from 56.4% in the same period last year. Despite lower market share, ASII’s total 4W
sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of 280,755
units in 1H13. We foresee ASII prefers profitability in its strategy for 4W market this
year as margins from its other business were eroded. We still maintain our buy
stance on ASII, which is trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
4W market share decrease to 53.4% in 1H13. ASII 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by
6.5% YoY to 321,184 units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY
growth during the same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased
to 53.4% in 1H13 from 56.4% in the same period last year. The lower market share is
mainly due higher sales volume growth from its competitors, namely Suzuki and
Honda. Suzuki sales volume during the same period jumped 46.6% due to the
company’s new product, Ertiga, that manage to penetrate well in domestic small MPV
market. Meanwhile, Honda posted a significant 89.6% YoY increase as the brand has
recovered from Thailand flood that affect Honda’s sales volume in early 2012.
2W sales volume growth outpaced other brands. In the flipside, ASII’s 2W sales
volume in 1H13 posted higher performance as compared to its competitors as sales
volume edged up by 4.4% YoY as compared to non ASII’s 2W sales volume that
decreased by 0.6% YoY. Consequently, ASII’s market share in 2W market jumped to
60.3% in 1H13 from 56.8% in 1H12.

Sales volume is still way above competitors. Despite lower market share in 4W, ASII’s
total 4W sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of
280,755 units in 1H13. Furthermore, the lower market share was mainly due to higher
growth from other brands, which showed that domestic 4W market is growing in a
positive course during 1H13 as demand for new products remains solid. In addition to
that, an intensive competition between automotive players provides attractive options
for consumers and maintains their appetites for automotive products. This would help
automotive sector to overcome higher fuel price impact and increasing interest rate
environment. Despite such opportunity, the automotive players have to intensively
choose between growth speed and profitability. We foresee ASII prefer profitability in
its strategy for 4W market this year as margins from its other business were eroded.

Bagus Hananto
[email protected]

Maintain Buy. In all, ASII’s automotive business posted solid operational performance
during 1H13 period, thus, it would maintain revenue growth momentum from this
segment. However, we expect a soft revenue from agribusiness business as
performance will be affected by lower selling price and also from heavy equipment,
which revenue will be dragged by lower sales volume. During 5M13, ASII’s subsidiary

sales volume in heavy equipment plunged 43.0% YoY to 2,126 units from 3,729 units,
indicating similar weak sales volume performance in 1H13 period. However, it’s already
been expected as the performance in previous earnings publication signals a lower
2013F figures from this business. We still maintain our buy stance on ASII, which is
trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
Year-end 31-Dec
Revenue (Rp bn)
EBITDA (Rp bn)
Net profit (Rp bn)
DPS (Rp)
DPS Yield (%)
EPS (Rp)
EBITDA margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
P/E Ratio (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on Equity (%)
Net Gearing (%)

2010

129,991
17,325
14,366
171
2.6
356
13.3
11.1
18.7
16.9
32.2
49.6

2011
162,564
21,807
17,783
217
3.3
441

13.4
10.9
15.1
13.8
32.4
51.7

2,012
188,053
24,905
19,421
193
2.9
481
13.2
10.3
13.8
12.6
29.5
63.0


2013F
190,697
24,092
19,629
195
2.9
486
12.6
10.3
13.7
12.6
25.4
41.8

2014F
201,507
26,154
21,513
213

3.2
533
13.0
10.7
12.5
11.5
23.9
34.0

Astra International
Exh. 1: Domestic 4W sales volume
Unit
DAIHATSU
ISUZU
NISSAN DIESEL
TOYOTA
PEUGEOT

NON ASTRA
MITSUBISHI

SUZUKI
NISSAN
HONDA
OTHERS

Total

1H12
80,319
16,731
1,907
202,518
160
301,635

1H13
88,446
16,227
992
215,353

166
321,184

% YoY
10.1%
-3.0%
-48.0%
6.3%
3.8%
6.5%

Mar-13
15,788
2,619
146
32,799
17
51,369

Apr-13
15,426
2,700
175
39,730
28
58,059

May-13
15,941
2,682
142
36,358
20
55,143

Jun-13
14,882
2,808
179
35,192
51
53,112

%MoM
-6.6%
4.7%
26.1%
-3.2%
155.0%
-3.7%

73,987
51,456
34,229
26,018
47,936
233,626

77,434
75,425
31,340
49,342
47,214
280,755

4.7%
46.6%
-8.4%
89.6%
-1.5%
20.2%

12,690
8,399
4,648
11,497
7,333
44,567

12,836
13,602
3,355
6,707
7,639
44,139

11,819
10,008
5,910
8,313
8,375
44,425

13,204
15,578
5,431
7,550
9,390
51,153

11.7%
55.7%
-8.1%
-9.2%
12.1%
15.1%

535,261

601,939

12.5%

95,936

102,198

99,568

104,265

4.7%

Source : Gaikindo

Exh. 2 : Domestic 2W sales volume
Unit
Honda

1H12
2,101,881

1H13
2,364,297

% YoY
12.5%

Mar-13
410,194

Apr-13
391,780

May-13
373,435

Jun-13
390,023

% MoM
4.4%

Non Astra
Yamaha
Suzuki
Kawasaki
TVS
Non Astra

1,311,323
222,498
61,015
5,637
1,600,473

1,277,781
208,645
69,020
3,952
1,559,398

-2.6%
-6.2%
13.1%
-29.9%
-2.6%

217,517
27,735
9,452
436
255,140

217,620
33,557
15,107
609
266,893

222,693
32,768
14,771
1,001
271,233

214,998
45,315
8,398
770
269,481

-3.5%
38.3%
-43.1%
-23.1%
-0.6%

Total 2W

3,702,354

3,923,695

6.0%

665,334

658,673

644,668

659,504

2.3%

Source : AISI

Exh. 2 : ASII’s gross margin
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1Q10
Otomotif

3Q10
Financial

1Q11

3Q11

Heavy Equipment

1Q12

3Q12

Agribusiness

1Q13
Others

Source : company

2

Astra International
Income statement
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)

Balance Sheet
2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)

2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

129,991

162,564

188,053

190,697

201,507

Cash & Deposits

7,078

13,190

11,227

18,165

19,543

32

25

16

1

6

Other curr asset

39,765

52,788

64,572

64,116

78,212

Net fixed asset

27,547

38,326

52,811

55,646

58,317

-103,117 -130,530 -151,853

-153,891

-162,007

Other asset

38,467

49,217

53,664

57,654

62,600

Total asset

112,857

153,521

182,274

195,581

218,672

Revenue
Total
% growth
COGS
Gross Profit

26,874

32,034

36,200

36,807

39,500

Opr Profit

14,725

17,832

19,870

20,247

22,002

EBITDA

17,325

21,807

24,905

24,092

26,154

4,689

4,681

7,202

6,528

6,367

% growth

13

26

14

-3

9

Other curr liab

32,435

43,690

46,976

51,366

61,597

LT debt

13,935

23,950

29,964

27,490

26,683

Net int inc/ (exp)

18

-14

-330

-324

-317

Other LT Liabs

3,109

5,362

8,318

8,482

8,650

Gain/ (loss) forex

-26

118

-215

0

0

Minority interest

9,379

15,389

18,613

18,613

18,613

Total Liabilities

54,168

77,683

92,460

93,866

103,297

Shareholders Equty

49,310

60,449

71,201

83,062

96,723

2014F

Other inc/ (exp)

1,410

2,180

2,352

2,573

2,580

Pre-tax Profit

21,031

25,772

27,898

28,779

30,840

Tax

-4,027

-4,697

-5,156

-6,161

-6,637

Minority Int.

-2,638

-3,292

-3,321

-2,989

-2,690

Extra. Items

0

0

0

0

0

NetProfit

14,366

17,783

19,421

19,629

21,513

% growth

43

24

9

1

10

ST debt

Key Ratios
2010

2011

2012

2013F

Gross Margin (%)

20.7

19.7

19.2

19.3

19.6

Operating Margin (%)

11.3

11.0

10.6

10.6

10.9

Net Margin (%)

11.1

10.9

10.3

10.3

10.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

13.3

13.4

13.2

12.6

13.0

Cash Flow
2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

ROE (%)

32.2

32.4

29.5

25.4

23.9

Net Income

Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)

14,366

17,783

19,421

19,629

21,513

ROA (%)

14.2

13.4

11.6

10.4

10.4

Depreciation

2,600

3,975

5,035

3,845

4,152

Change in WC

-1,552

-1,776

-5,977

4,172

-4,026

EBIT / Interest Expenses (x)

30.4

25.1

19.5

24.0

26.3

Cash Flow From Operation

15,414

19,982

18,479

27,646

21,639

EBITDA / Interest Expenses (x)

35.8

30.7

24.4

28.6

31.3

Capex

-5,592

-14,754

-19,520

-6,680

-6,824

Net Debt / Equity (x)

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.3

Others

-10,679

-10,750

-4,447

-3,990

-4,946

Cash Flow From Investment

-16,271

-25,504

-23,967

-10,670

-11,769

3,268

10,015

6,014

-2,474

-808

-5,221

-6,886

-8,760

-7,768

-7,852

1,117

8,505

6,271

164

168

-836

11,634

3,525

-10,078

-8,491

Change in debts
Dividends
Others
Cash Flow From Financing

Efficiency
2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

AR turnover (days)

25.0

28.1

30.6

31.7

39.0

Inventory turnover (days)

38.4

32.1

31.9

32.8

34.7

AP turnover (days)

43.8

49.2

50.1

53.7

66.3

Net trade Cycle (days)

13.2

10.8

13.3

12.7

8.3

Valuation
2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

PER (x)

18.7

15.1

13.8

13.7

12.5

PBV (x)

5.4

4.4

3.8

3.2

2.8

16.9

13.8

12.6

12.6

11.5

EV / EBITDA (x)

3

Astra International
RESEARCH
Bagus Hananto

[email protected]

(62-21) 3190-1777 ext. 219

EQUITY SALES
Dick Hermanto

[email protected]

(62-21) 3162-063

Maria Fransisca

[email protected]

(62-21) 3162-062

Agi Susanti

[email protected]

(62-21) 3162-075

Siti Qobtiah

[email protected]

(62-21) 3162-065

Pandu Endra

[email protected]

(62-21) 3190-1777

Supardi

[email protected]

(62-21) 3162-025

PT ONIX Sekuritas
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Jl. Imam Bonjol No. 80
Jakarta 10310 Indonesia
Phone. (62-21) 3190-1777 (hunting)
Fax. (62-21) 3190-1616

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