ASII 130716 Company Update
Company Update
Astra International
1H13 sales volume
16-Jul-13
Ticker
Price
Target Price
Recommendation
Upside (Downside)
Market Cap (Rptn)
Issued Share (mn share)
ASII
6,650
8,200
BUY
23%
268.4
40,353.8
Shareholders
Jardine Cycle & Carriage
Public
%
50.1%
49.9%
Revenue (RPbn)
EBITDA (Rpbn)
Net Profit (Rpbn)
EPS (Rp)
Gross Margin (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
Net Gearing (x)
2012
188,053
24,905
19,421
481
19.2
13.2
10.3
0.6
2013F
190,697
24,092
19,629
486
19.3
12.6
10.3
0.4
Astra International’s (ASII) 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by 6.5% YoY to 321,184
units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY growth during the
same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased to 53.4% in 1H13
from 56.4% in the same period last year. Despite lower market share, ASII’s total 4W
sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of 280,755
units in 1H13. We foresee ASII prefers profitability in its strategy for 4W market this
year as margins from its other business were eroded. We still maintain our buy
stance on ASII, which is trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
4W market share decrease to 53.4% in 1H13. ASII 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by
6.5% YoY to 321,184 units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY
growth during the same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased
to 53.4% in 1H13 from 56.4% in the same period last year. The lower market share is
mainly due higher sales volume growth from its competitors, namely Suzuki and
Honda. Suzuki sales volume during the same period jumped 46.6% due to the
company’s new product, Ertiga, that manage to penetrate well in domestic small MPV
market. Meanwhile, Honda posted a significant 89.6% YoY increase as the brand has
recovered from Thailand flood that affect Honda’s sales volume in early 2012.
2W sales volume growth outpaced other brands. In the flipside, ASII’s 2W sales
volume in 1H13 posted higher performance as compared to its competitors as sales
volume edged up by 4.4% YoY as compared to non ASII’s 2W sales volume that
decreased by 0.6% YoY. Consequently, ASII’s market share in 2W market jumped to
60.3% in 1H13 from 56.8% in 1H12.
Sales volume is still way above competitors. Despite lower market share in 4W, ASII’s
total 4W sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of
280,755 units in 1H13. Furthermore, the lower market share was mainly due to higher
growth from other brands, which showed that domestic 4W market is growing in a
positive course during 1H13 as demand for new products remains solid. In addition to
that, an intensive competition between automotive players provides attractive options
for consumers and maintains their appetites for automotive products. This would help
automotive sector to overcome higher fuel price impact and increasing interest rate
environment. Despite such opportunity, the automotive players have to intensively
choose between growth speed and profitability. We foresee ASII prefer profitability in
its strategy for 4W market this year as margins from its other business were eroded.
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
Maintain Buy. In all, ASII’s automotive business posted solid operational performance
during 1H13 period, thus, it would maintain revenue growth momentum from this
segment. However, we expect a soft revenue from agribusiness business as
performance will be affected by lower selling price and also from heavy equipment,
which revenue will be dragged by lower sales volume. During 5M13, ASII’s subsidiary
sales volume in heavy equipment plunged 43.0% YoY to 2,126 units from 3,729 units,
indicating similar weak sales volume performance in 1H13 period. However, it’s already
been expected as the performance in previous earnings publication signals a lower
2013F figures from this business. We still maintain our buy stance on ASII, which is
trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
Year-end 31-Dec
Revenue (Rp bn)
EBITDA (Rp bn)
Net profit (Rp bn)
DPS (Rp)
DPS Yield (%)
EPS (Rp)
EBITDA margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
P/E Ratio (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on Equity (%)
Net Gearing (%)
2010
129,991
17,325
14,366
171
2.6
356
13.3
11.1
18.7
16.9
32.2
49.6
2011
162,564
21,807
17,783
217
3.3
441
13.4
10.9
15.1
13.8
32.4
51.7
2,012
188,053
24,905
19,421
193
2.9
481
13.2
10.3
13.8
12.6
29.5
63.0
2013F
190,697
24,092
19,629
195
2.9
486
12.6
10.3
13.7
12.6
25.4
41.8
2014F
201,507
26,154
21,513
213
3.2
533
13.0
10.7
12.5
11.5
23.9
34.0
Astra International
Exh. 1: Domestic 4W sales volume
Unit
DAIHATSU
ISUZU
NISSAN DIESEL
TOYOTA
PEUGEOT
NON ASTRA
MITSUBISHI
SUZUKI
NISSAN
HONDA
OTHERS
Total
1H12
80,319
16,731
1,907
202,518
160
301,635
1H13
88,446
16,227
992
215,353
166
321,184
% YoY
10.1%
-3.0%
-48.0%
6.3%
3.8%
6.5%
Mar-13
15,788
2,619
146
32,799
17
51,369
Apr-13
15,426
2,700
175
39,730
28
58,059
May-13
15,941
2,682
142
36,358
20
55,143
Jun-13
14,882
2,808
179
35,192
51
53,112
%MoM
-6.6%
4.7%
26.1%
-3.2%
155.0%
-3.7%
73,987
51,456
34,229
26,018
47,936
233,626
77,434
75,425
31,340
49,342
47,214
280,755
4.7%
46.6%
-8.4%
89.6%
-1.5%
20.2%
12,690
8,399
4,648
11,497
7,333
44,567
12,836
13,602
3,355
6,707
7,639
44,139
11,819
10,008
5,910
8,313
8,375
44,425
13,204
15,578
5,431
7,550
9,390
51,153
11.7%
55.7%
-8.1%
-9.2%
12.1%
15.1%
535,261
601,939
12.5%
95,936
102,198
99,568
104,265
4.7%
Source : Gaikindo
Exh. 2 : Domestic 2W sales volume
Unit
Honda
1H12
2,101,881
1H13
2,364,297
% YoY
12.5%
Mar-13
410,194
Apr-13
391,780
May-13
373,435
Jun-13
390,023
% MoM
4.4%
Non Astra
Yamaha
Suzuki
Kawasaki
TVS
Non Astra
1,311,323
222,498
61,015
5,637
1,600,473
1,277,781
208,645
69,020
3,952
1,559,398
-2.6%
-6.2%
13.1%
-29.9%
-2.6%
217,517
27,735
9,452
436
255,140
217,620
33,557
15,107
609
266,893
222,693
32,768
14,771
1,001
271,233
214,998
45,315
8,398
770
269,481
-3.5%
38.3%
-43.1%
-23.1%
-0.6%
Total 2W
3,702,354
3,923,695
6.0%
665,334
658,673
644,668
659,504
2.3%
Source : AISI
Exh. 2 : ASII’s gross margin
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1Q10
Otomotif
3Q10
Financial
1Q11
3Q11
Heavy Equipment
1Q12
3Q12
Agribusiness
1Q13
Others
Source : company
2
Astra International
Income statement
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)
Balance Sheet
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
129,991
162,564
188,053
190,697
201,507
Cash & Deposits
7,078
13,190
11,227
18,165
19,543
32
25
16
1
6
Other curr asset
39,765
52,788
64,572
64,116
78,212
Net fixed asset
27,547
38,326
52,811
55,646
58,317
-103,117 -130,530 -151,853
-153,891
-162,007
Other asset
38,467
49,217
53,664
57,654
62,600
Total asset
112,857
153,521
182,274
195,581
218,672
Revenue
Total
% growth
COGS
Gross Profit
26,874
32,034
36,200
36,807
39,500
Opr Profit
14,725
17,832
19,870
20,247
22,002
EBITDA
17,325
21,807
24,905
24,092
26,154
4,689
4,681
7,202
6,528
6,367
% growth
13
26
14
-3
9
Other curr liab
32,435
43,690
46,976
51,366
61,597
LT debt
13,935
23,950
29,964
27,490
26,683
Net int inc/ (exp)
18
-14
-330
-324
-317
Other LT Liabs
3,109
5,362
8,318
8,482
8,650
Gain/ (loss) forex
-26
118
-215
0
0
Minority interest
9,379
15,389
18,613
18,613
18,613
Total Liabilities
54,168
77,683
92,460
93,866
103,297
Shareholders Equty
49,310
60,449
71,201
83,062
96,723
2014F
Other inc/ (exp)
1,410
2,180
2,352
2,573
2,580
Pre-tax Profit
21,031
25,772
27,898
28,779
30,840
Tax
-4,027
-4,697
-5,156
-6,161
-6,637
Minority Int.
-2,638
-3,292
-3,321
-2,989
-2,690
Extra. Items
0
0
0
0
0
NetProfit
14,366
17,783
19,421
19,629
21,513
% growth
43
24
9
1
10
ST debt
Key Ratios
2010
2011
2012
2013F
Gross Margin (%)
20.7
19.7
19.2
19.3
19.6
Operating Margin (%)
11.3
11.0
10.6
10.6
10.9
Net Margin (%)
11.1
10.9
10.3
10.3
10.7
EBITDA Margin (%)
13.3
13.4
13.2
12.6
13.0
Cash Flow
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
ROE (%)
32.2
32.4
29.5
25.4
23.9
Net Income
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)
14,366
17,783
19,421
19,629
21,513
ROA (%)
14.2
13.4
11.6
10.4
10.4
Depreciation
2,600
3,975
5,035
3,845
4,152
Change in WC
-1,552
-1,776
-5,977
4,172
-4,026
EBIT / Interest Expenses (x)
30.4
25.1
19.5
24.0
26.3
Cash Flow From Operation
15,414
19,982
18,479
27,646
21,639
EBITDA / Interest Expenses (x)
35.8
30.7
24.4
28.6
31.3
Capex
-5,592
-14,754
-19,520
-6,680
-6,824
Net Debt / Equity (x)
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
Others
-10,679
-10,750
-4,447
-3,990
-4,946
Cash Flow From Investment
-16,271
-25,504
-23,967
-10,670
-11,769
3,268
10,015
6,014
-2,474
-808
-5,221
-6,886
-8,760
-7,768
-7,852
1,117
8,505
6,271
164
168
-836
11,634
3,525
-10,078
-8,491
Change in debts
Dividends
Others
Cash Flow From Financing
Efficiency
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
AR turnover (days)
25.0
28.1
30.6
31.7
39.0
Inventory turnover (days)
38.4
32.1
31.9
32.8
34.7
AP turnover (days)
43.8
49.2
50.1
53.7
66.3
Net trade Cycle (days)
13.2
10.8
13.3
12.7
8.3
Valuation
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
PER (x)
18.7
15.1
13.8
13.7
12.5
PBV (x)
5.4
4.4
3.8
3.2
2.8
16.9
13.8
12.6
12.6
11.5
EV / EBITDA (x)
3
Astra International
RESEARCH
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
(62-21) 3190-1777 ext. 219
EQUITY SALES
Dick Hermanto
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-063
Maria Fransisca
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-062
Agi Susanti
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-075
Siti Qobtiah
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-065
Pandu Endra
[email protected]
(62-21) 3190-1777
Supardi
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-025
PT ONIX Sekuritas
Deutsche Bank Building #15-04
Jl. Imam Bonjol No. 80
Jakarta 10310 Indonesia
Phone. (62-21) 3190-1777 (hunting)
Fax. (62-21) 3190-1616
DISCLAIMER:
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4
Astra International
1H13 sales volume
16-Jul-13
Ticker
Price
Target Price
Recommendation
Upside (Downside)
Market Cap (Rptn)
Issued Share (mn share)
ASII
6,650
8,200
BUY
23%
268.4
40,353.8
Shareholders
Jardine Cycle & Carriage
Public
%
50.1%
49.9%
Revenue (RPbn)
EBITDA (Rpbn)
Net Profit (Rpbn)
EPS (Rp)
Gross Margin (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
Net Gearing (x)
2012
188,053
24,905
19,421
481
19.2
13.2
10.3
0.6
2013F
190,697
24,092
19,629
486
19.3
12.6
10.3
0.4
Astra International’s (ASII) 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by 6.5% YoY to 321,184
units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY growth during the
same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased to 53.4% in 1H13
from 56.4% in the same period last year. Despite lower market share, ASII’s total 4W
sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of 280,755
units in 1H13. We foresee ASII prefers profitability in its strategy for 4W market this
year as margins from its other business were eroded. We still maintain our buy
stance on ASII, which is trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
4W market share decrease to 53.4% in 1H13. ASII 4W sales volume in 1H13 grew by
6.5% YoY to 321,184 units from 301,635 units or slower than its sector with 12.5% YoY
growth during the same period. As an impact, the company’s market share decreased
to 53.4% in 1H13 from 56.4% in the same period last year. The lower market share is
mainly due higher sales volume growth from its competitors, namely Suzuki and
Honda. Suzuki sales volume during the same period jumped 46.6% due to the
company’s new product, Ertiga, that manage to penetrate well in domestic small MPV
market. Meanwhile, Honda posted a significant 89.6% YoY increase as the brand has
recovered from Thailand flood that affect Honda’s sales volume in early 2012.
2W sales volume growth outpaced other brands. In the flipside, ASII’s 2W sales
volume in 1H13 posted higher performance as compared to its competitors as sales
volume edged up by 4.4% YoY as compared to non ASII’s 2W sales volume that
decreased by 0.6% YoY. Consequently, ASII’s market share in 2W market jumped to
60.3% in 1H13 from 56.8% in 1H12.
Sales volume is still way above competitors. Despite lower market share in 4W, ASII’s
total 4W sales volume of 321,184 units is still way above non ASII’s sales volume of
280,755 units in 1H13. Furthermore, the lower market share was mainly due to higher
growth from other brands, which showed that domestic 4W market is growing in a
positive course during 1H13 as demand for new products remains solid. In addition to
that, an intensive competition between automotive players provides attractive options
for consumers and maintains their appetites for automotive products. This would help
automotive sector to overcome higher fuel price impact and increasing interest rate
environment. Despite such opportunity, the automotive players have to intensively
choose between growth speed and profitability. We foresee ASII prefer profitability in
its strategy for 4W market this year as margins from its other business were eroded.
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
Maintain Buy. In all, ASII’s automotive business posted solid operational performance
during 1H13 period, thus, it would maintain revenue growth momentum from this
segment. However, we expect a soft revenue from agribusiness business as
performance will be affected by lower selling price and also from heavy equipment,
which revenue will be dragged by lower sales volume. During 5M13, ASII’s subsidiary
sales volume in heavy equipment plunged 43.0% YoY to 2,126 units from 3,729 units,
indicating similar weak sales volume performance in 1H13 period. However, it’s already
been expected as the performance in previous earnings publication signals a lower
2013F figures from this business. We still maintain our buy stance on ASII, which is
trading at 2013F PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x.
Year-end 31-Dec
Revenue (Rp bn)
EBITDA (Rp bn)
Net profit (Rp bn)
DPS (Rp)
DPS Yield (%)
EPS (Rp)
EBITDA margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
P/E Ratio (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on Equity (%)
Net Gearing (%)
2010
129,991
17,325
14,366
171
2.6
356
13.3
11.1
18.7
16.9
32.2
49.6
2011
162,564
21,807
17,783
217
3.3
441
13.4
10.9
15.1
13.8
32.4
51.7
2,012
188,053
24,905
19,421
193
2.9
481
13.2
10.3
13.8
12.6
29.5
63.0
2013F
190,697
24,092
19,629
195
2.9
486
12.6
10.3
13.7
12.6
25.4
41.8
2014F
201,507
26,154
21,513
213
3.2
533
13.0
10.7
12.5
11.5
23.9
34.0
Astra International
Exh. 1: Domestic 4W sales volume
Unit
DAIHATSU
ISUZU
NISSAN DIESEL
TOYOTA
PEUGEOT
NON ASTRA
MITSUBISHI
SUZUKI
NISSAN
HONDA
OTHERS
Total
1H12
80,319
16,731
1,907
202,518
160
301,635
1H13
88,446
16,227
992
215,353
166
321,184
% YoY
10.1%
-3.0%
-48.0%
6.3%
3.8%
6.5%
Mar-13
15,788
2,619
146
32,799
17
51,369
Apr-13
15,426
2,700
175
39,730
28
58,059
May-13
15,941
2,682
142
36,358
20
55,143
Jun-13
14,882
2,808
179
35,192
51
53,112
%MoM
-6.6%
4.7%
26.1%
-3.2%
155.0%
-3.7%
73,987
51,456
34,229
26,018
47,936
233,626
77,434
75,425
31,340
49,342
47,214
280,755
4.7%
46.6%
-8.4%
89.6%
-1.5%
20.2%
12,690
8,399
4,648
11,497
7,333
44,567
12,836
13,602
3,355
6,707
7,639
44,139
11,819
10,008
5,910
8,313
8,375
44,425
13,204
15,578
5,431
7,550
9,390
51,153
11.7%
55.7%
-8.1%
-9.2%
12.1%
15.1%
535,261
601,939
12.5%
95,936
102,198
99,568
104,265
4.7%
Source : Gaikindo
Exh. 2 : Domestic 2W sales volume
Unit
Honda
1H12
2,101,881
1H13
2,364,297
% YoY
12.5%
Mar-13
410,194
Apr-13
391,780
May-13
373,435
Jun-13
390,023
% MoM
4.4%
Non Astra
Yamaha
Suzuki
Kawasaki
TVS
Non Astra
1,311,323
222,498
61,015
5,637
1,600,473
1,277,781
208,645
69,020
3,952
1,559,398
-2.6%
-6.2%
13.1%
-29.9%
-2.6%
217,517
27,735
9,452
436
255,140
217,620
33,557
15,107
609
266,893
222,693
32,768
14,771
1,001
271,233
214,998
45,315
8,398
770
269,481
-3.5%
38.3%
-43.1%
-23.1%
-0.6%
Total 2W
3,702,354
3,923,695
6.0%
665,334
658,673
644,668
659,504
2.3%
Source : AISI
Exh. 2 : ASII’s gross margin
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1Q10
Otomotif
3Q10
Financial
1Q11
3Q11
Heavy Equipment
1Q12
3Q12
Agribusiness
1Q13
Others
Source : company
2
Astra International
Income statement
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)
Balance Sheet
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
129,991
162,564
188,053
190,697
201,507
Cash & Deposits
7,078
13,190
11,227
18,165
19,543
32
25
16
1
6
Other curr asset
39,765
52,788
64,572
64,116
78,212
Net fixed asset
27,547
38,326
52,811
55,646
58,317
-103,117 -130,530 -151,853
-153,891
-162,007
Other asset
38,467
49,217
53,664
57,654
62,600
Total asset
112,857
153,521
182,274
195,581
218,672
Revenue
Total
% growth
COGS
Gross Profit
26,874
32,034
36,200
36,807
39,500
Opr Profit
14,725
17,832
19,870
20,247
22,002
EBITDA
17,325
21,807
24,905
24,092
26,154
4,689
4,681
7,202
6,528
6,367
% growth
13
26
14
-3
9
Other curr liab
32,435
43,690
46,976
51,366
61,597
LT debt
13,935
23,950
29,964
27,490
26,683
Net int inc/ (exp)
18
-14
-330
-324
-317
Other LT Liabs
3,109
5,362
8,318
8,482
8,650
Gain/ (loss) forex
-26
118
-215
0
0
Minority interest
9,379
15,389
18,613
18,613
18,613
Total Liabilities
54,168
77,683
92,460
93,866
103,297
Shareholders Equty
49,310
60,449
71,201
83,062
96,723
2014F
Other inc/ (exp)
1,410
2,180
2,352
2,573
2,580
Pre-tax Profit
21,031
25,772
27,898
28,779
30,840
Tax
-4,027
-4,697
-5,156
-6,161
-6,637
Minority Int.
-2,638
-3,292
-3,321
-2,989
-2,690
Extra. Items
0
0
0
0
0
NetProfit
14,366
17,783
19,421
19,629
21,513
% growth
43
24
9
1
10
ST debt
Key Ratios
2010
2011
2012
2013F
Gross Margin (%)
20.7
19.7
19.2
19.3
19.6
Operating Margin (%)
11.3
11.0
10.6
10.6
10.9
Net Margin (%)
11.1
10.9
10.3
10.3
10.7
EBITDA Margin (%)
13.3
13.4
13.2
12.6
13.0
Cash Flow
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
ROE (%)
32.2
32.4
29.5
25.4
23.9
Net Income
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn)
14,366
17,783
19,421
19,629
21,513
ROA (%)
14.2
13.4
11.6
10.4
10.4
Depreciation
2,600
3,975
5,035
3,845
4,152
Change in WC
-1,552
-1,776
-5,977
4,172
-4,026
EBIT / Interest Expenses (x)
30.4
25.1
19.5
24.0
26.3
Cash Flow From Operation
15,414
19,982
18,479
27,646
21,639
EBITDA / Interest Expenses (x)
35.8
30.7
24.4
28.6
31.3
Capex
-5,592
-14,754
-19,520
-6,680
-6,824
Net Debt / Equity (x)
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
Others
-10,679
-10,750
-4,447
-3,990
-4,946
Cash Flow From Investment
-16,271
-25,504
-23,967
-10,670
-11,769
3,268
10,015
6,014
-2,474
-808
-5,221
-6,886
-8,760
-7,768
-7,852
1,117
8,505
6,271
164
168
-836
11,634
3,525
-10,078
-8,491
Change in debts
Dividends
Others
Cash Flow From Financing
Efficiency
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
AR turnover (days)
25.0
28.1
30.6
31.7
39.0
Inventory turnover (days)
38.4
32.1
31.9
32.8
34.7
AP turnover (days)
43.8
49.2
50.1
53.7
66.3
Net trade Cycle (days)
13.2
10.8
13.3
12.7
8.3
Valuation
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
PER (x)
18.7
15.1
13.8
13.7
12.5
PBV (x)
5.4
4.4
3.8
3.2
2.8
16.9
13.8
12.6
12.6
11.5
EV / EBITDA (x)
3
Astra International
RESEARCH
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
(62-21) 3190-1777 ext. 219
EQUITY SALES
Dick Hermanto
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Maria Fransisca
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Agi Susanti
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(62-21) 3162-075
Siti Qobtiah
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(62-21) 3162-065
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