Mahangu Urban Consumption Survey Consumption Survey

Final report

Sabine Leporrier Antoine Leveau Sandrine Dury Nicolas Bricas

CIRAD-AMIS, Programme Agro-Alimentaire

November 2002

R EPUBLIC OF N AMIBIA R ÉPUBLIQUE F RANCAISE M INISTRY OF A GRICULTURE ,

M INISTÈRE DES A FFAIRES W ATER

N AMIBIAN

E TRANGÈRES AND R URAL D EVELOPMENT

A GRONOMIC

B OARD

SCAC N AMIBIE

Rapport final d'exécution de la convention entre le MAE/SCAC Namibie et le CIRAD-Amis

n° 2002/007/CP/980139 notifiée le 29/03/2002

Mahangu Urban Consumption Survey

Final report

Sabine Leporrier Antoine Leveau Sandrine Dury Nicolas Bricas

CIRAD-AMIS, Programme Agro-Alimentaire TA 40/16, 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France

Tél : (33)(0) 467 61 57 12 (N. Bricas)

E. Mail : sandrine.dury@cirad.fr nicolas.bricas@cirad.fr

Foreword

The results given in this report come from a consumption survey which was conducted over a relatively short period of time by two students from France, with the help from 4 students from UNAM, under the supervision of one UNAM lecturer and one researcher from CIRAD, during two 10-day missions. CIRAD was chosen because it had previously conducted similar work in several other African countries. However, Namibia has its own specific situation, and the period of the study did not allow a full appreciation of the dynamics of the socio-economic patterns which are the very basis of consumer behaviour. Moreover, cereals production and consumption change according to the season and the year. The results are thus a "snapshot" of a moving reality and should be considered as such.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the following persons for their precious advice and contributions to this work: Ben Bennett of the Directorate of Planning, Thierry Dauplais of the French co- operation service, Michel Mallet of CRIAA, and Paully Iipinge from MMIU for the time he spent with us meeting commercial millers, and the full access he gave us to MMIU office facilities.

We also wish to thank the Namibian Agronomic Board for its full support regarding material arrangements, and the availability of Christof Brock. We are grateful to Annie Zapke for her kindness and professionalism.

Thanks to Ottilie Mwazi and Alves Weerasinghe from the National Planning Commission for their advice and material support in the sampling and organisation of the field work.

The collaboration of UNAM lecturer Naita Nghaamwa and the students involved in the first phase of the project was particularly important to us. We should like to thank them here for their contribution.

We would also like to thank all the members from the Mahangu and Sorghum Task Team for their comments during the feedback meeting in Windhoek on 28th October 2002.

We are grateful to the French co-operation service (SCAC) in Windhoek, and to Bertrand and Nora Dayot for their hospitality and daily support.

Abstract

Millet consumption is significant in both Oshakati and Windhoek, in terms of both the quantity consumed (7.4 kg and 2.1 kg respectively per person and per month) and the frequency of consumption (more than 80% of consumers eat porridge more than 3 times a week). Urban dwellers who come from non-producing areas do not consume millet, whilst the others remain loyal to the product, which is a link to their rural origins. However, the data collected show a clear trend towards substitution amongst the wealthiest households, and young urban dwellers who tend not to prepare millet, even if they eat it in their village.

Total consumption is estimated at about 500 tons grain equivalent in each city for the month of June 2002. Half of the supply goes through non-trade chain. In Windhoek, people buy only flour, and in Oshakati only grain. Most housewives prefer buying grain and processing it themselves, rather than buying industrial flour. Most of them are suspicious of the quality of the industrial product and process. Consumption takes place at home, and the quantity consumed in the street /restaurants is almost zero, except for sorghum beer (Tombo). More than 10 recipes (beverages and dishes) have been identified, but two of them, porridge (thin or thick) and the beverage “oshikundu”, represent 90% of the millet consumed.

Two different segments should be targeted to improve the competitiveness of millet. The first concerns the traditional consumers, and the products for preparing porridge (grain/flour). Facilitating access to grain and to service mills in Windhoek would increase the demand for millet. The second segment concerns the non-consumers. New products should be developed, or old products renamed, with high standards of quality. At the same time, a new image of millet, not related to tradition, should be promoted.

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Millet (mahangu) and sorghum represent the major part of grain production in Namibia. The Namibian government believes that both production and consumption could be improved. It was supposed that consumers had a strong preference for the traditional mahangu over maize. In a context of rapid urbanisation and a growing cash economy, it was supposed that millet could out-compete maize in certain segments of the Namibian urban market. Concomitantly, the higher the value of the mahangu products brought to formal markets by the commercialisation process, the more favourable the resulting terms of trade would be for mahangu producers.

Despite the formation of the Mahangu Marketing Intelligence Unit (MMIU) to bring producers and buyers of mahangu together, and despite private-sector intitiatives to market dry-milled mahangu flour and products made from mahangu or sorghum, communal-area grain producers are still restricted by a lack of ready markets, while the development of markets is restricted by low and uneven production, aggravated by a semi-arid climate with irregular rainfall.

In an attempt to find a solution to these problems, the Government, in partnership with the main stakeholders involved in the mahangu sector, has designed a comprehensive strategy, which aims to improve the chain at all levels. One of the main gaps identified is the lack of proper information about urban mahangu consumers (who they are, what they want, how to reach them, and how to improve their utilisation of the grain), where the main potential market development lies.

1.2 Objectives of the study

- To clarify the extent of mahangu (and other local product) consumption in cities, and to identify the determining factors of consumption. Is consumption linked to the standard of living, to the region of origin, and to the age of the consumer? How big is the urban market? From a consumer point of view, how do the different cereals compete with or complement each other?

- To identify the forms in which the local products are procured and processed. Who buys flour? Who buys grain for processing? What are the markets for processed mahangu? Can the catering/restaurant sector be a significant outlet for the promotion of local products?

- To specify the conditions needed to make mahangu more competitive on the urban market. How do the consumers perceive mahangu and other local products? What image do these products have? How do consumers rank them compared to other products? Why are these products not used more? Is it a question of price, availability or quality?

1.3 Structure of the report

After a summary of the methodology (detailed in the appendix), the characteristics of the markets in Windhoek and Oshakati are discussed. The determining factors which influence

consumption are assessed. The different uses of mahangu products, the dishes prepared and consumption frequencies are then discussed. The next chapter shows the channels and forms of supply. The different preferences regarding fermentation are assessed in discussing the processing of the product; and the following chapter introduces consumer perception of the product, and how it competes with other cereals. The last part shows the relative importance of the different commercial brands of mahangu, and their popularity amongst consumers. Recommendations for improving competitiveness are summarised in the conclusion.

2 Methodology

(see details in appendix I). The study was conducted in two phases (qualitative and quantitative) in Oshakati and

Windhoek between May and October 2002. Many expectations and many objectives were assigned directly to the study: these include quantification of the market, of opinions/perceptions, estimates of income elasticity for the different staple foods, estimates of own price elasticity, of cross price elasticity, etc.

During the first phase (qualitative interviews), it appeared that almost none of the interviewees were aware of the fact that millet was cheaper than maize. It was also shown that more than half of the millet consumed in cities was supplied through a non-market chain. This led us to conclude that market price was not really a concern for consumers, at least in the short term, and that consumption was more linked to socio-cultural factors and income than to the relative price of millet and its substitutes. Because of the duration of the study (6 months) and the way in which it was organised (see foreword), it seemed wiser to focus the study on defining and quantifying the different opinions and perceptions from households, and

quantifying consumption 1 .

2.1 Qualitative survey

The qualitative information was collected with the collaboration of UNAM students. A total of approximately 80 in-depth interviews were conducted. These were then used to construct the questionnaire, analyse the results and understand the perceptions. The team adapted the type of interviewees each week, in order to obtain as many different points of view as possible.

2.2 Quantitative survey

2.2.1 Sampling method

During the qualitative survey, it was assessed that most mahangu was consumed within the household, at family meals or with guests. Because of the little information available on the structure of the population (data from the 2001 census were not complete), it was decided to conduct a household sampling, rather than a individual one. The advantage of choosing households is that it allows quantification of the quantities consumed and extrapolation for the city. The drawback is that opinions and perceptions from children and teenagers are not quantified. These were, however, discussed in individual interviews.

1 The issue of the variation in demand for millet and its various substitutes according to the variation in market prices is, however, very interesting in the Namibian context. Formulating an answer would mean finding a good

way of modelling the non-market supply. It would be an interesting challenge to assess whether a “shadow

The quantitative survey was based on a 12-page pre-coded questionnaire. It consisted of three main parts, one for the general socio-economic overview, one for consumers and one for non-consumers. It was conducted with 400 households in Oshakati and almost 700 in Windhoek. The sample was weighted according to district sizes, in order to make it representative.

Table 1: Sample size

Size of sample (households interviewed)

395 Sampling rate (in percent)

2.2.2 The Living Standard Measure, a tool to assess income level

As household income is difficult to assess, researchers have developed an alternative indicator (LSM = Living Standards Measure) which is correlated with income and much

easier to capture during interviews. Eighteen variables were included in the questionnaire in order to calculate the LSM. Table 22 and Table 23 (Appendix II) show the LSM groups range, and the variable used for this measure, with corresponding weights. In the results below, LSM is considered as a proxy of the household's income.

3 Results

3.1 Characteristics of the market

3.1.1 Overall population characteristics

The cities of Windhoek and Oshakati have different population structures, as well as a different context, both of which influence food consumption and market characteristics.

Table 2: Population size of Windhoek and Oshakati

Population size (2001 census)

70,045 Number of households (2001 census)

14,313 Average number of people per household

Windhoek, with more than 250,000 habitants, represents 14% of the national population. Its growth rate was 5.44 % per year between 1991 and 1995, and 6.3 % per year between

1995 and 2001 2 . Given the fact that the natural growth rate is around 1.5% per year , Windhoek has a net annual migration gain of 4.8% per year, which represents between 10,000

and 15,000 new migrants annually. Over the past ten years, 44% of these migrants 3 came from the North Central Areas, which are also mahangu- and sorghum-producing areas.

The 20-to-35 age group is relatively larger than would be the case for the country as a whole, mainly due to the in-migration of people in these age groups (see

Figure 12) (Windhoek resident survey 1995). This relatively high flow of migrants with a mahangu and sorghum traditional background coming to Windhoek will contribute to an increase in the number of mahangu consumers in the capital in the future.

3.1.2 Size of the consumer market in Windhoek and Oshakati

One of the first objectives of the study was to estimate the importance of mahangu consumption in the two cities. The results, as illustrated in Table 3, show a big difference if we look at the mahangu consumer / non-consumer ratio. Moreover, average consumption of

consumers in Windhoek is 30% lower than in Oshakati, dropping from 7.8 kg 4 /consumer per month in Oshakati to 6.2 kg in Windhoek. The consumption pattern also varies a lot from one constituency to another. Detailed rates of consumption per constituency are given in Table 24.

1 Calculated from the 2001 Census preliminary results

Table 3: Key urban market indicators for mahangu. July 2002.

Windhoek Oshakati 1

94% Respondents who have never tasted mahangu

Consumer 2 ratio

1% Average quantity used in grain eq. (kg/ pers/month)

7.8 kg Total consumption for the month of June (metric tons)

Average quantity used in grain eq. 3 (kg/cons ./month)

6.2 kg

530 t 518 t Including traded

244 t 181 t Ratio of traded mahangu in June

t = metric ton = 1000 kg.

3.1.3 Traded – non-traded urban consumer supply

An important factor to note with respect to the mahangu market is the minor role of traded products in the supply chain as a whole. Even if we consider that these data change from one month to another 4 , reciprocal gifts between rural and urban family members are still very important in both cities. This is an illustration of the strong traditional links between urban consumers and their rural counterparts. One of the consequences is that people are not directly sensitive to market prices, since most of them imagine they have "mahangu for free".

3.2 Urban consumer characteristics

The data collected makes it possible to test the influence of different variables on the consumption/non-consumption pattern in the population. In this section, we present the different factors by decreasing order of importance.

3.2.1 The strong influence of the cultural background

The first factor influencing mahangu consumption is linked to the respondent’s mother tongue. Respondents whose mother tongue was Oshiwambo clearly appear to be the main homogenous group of consumers.

1 Throughout the report, the term Oshakati is used to describe the cities of both Oshakati and Ongwediva. 2 A consumer is defined as a person who eats mahangu at least once a month 3 Average per consumer of mahangu. This does not concern the whole population. 4 The figures above were surveyed in July 2002. Because July is at the mid term of the mahangu harvest, they

probably tend to overestimate the share of non-traded mahangu versus that of the traded product. The main reasons for this are that the fresh product is available at this time, and the school holidays increase visits to rural family.

Table 4: Respondent mother tongue distribution, for consumers, non-consumers and the whole population in Windhoek and in Oshakati.

Mother tongue

Windhoek

Oshakati

Consumer Non-consumer

Whole

Consumer Whole

Whilst 85 % of the consumers in Windhoek declared Oshiwambo to be their mother tongue (97% in Oshakati), no other language group represents more than five percent of the consumers.

However, the consumption rate appears to be significant within specific mother language groups. Table 5 indicates the ratio of consumers in Windhoek according to their mother tongue. More than half of the Rukavango-speaking people interviewed eat mahangu, but they represent only a small percentage of the population of Windhoek.

Table 5: Ratio of consumers according to the respondent’s mother tongue, and proportion in the whole population of Windhoek

Mother tongue

Consumer

Non-consumer Total

Percentage of total Windhoek population

3.2.2 Size of household

Average consumption per person is less in large families than in small (Figure 1). It varies from 8 to 11 kg (grain eq.) / pers / month in a small family, to 4 – 4.5 kg in the biggest family.

Figure 1: Evolution of average quantity of mahangu consumed per person and per month according to the size of household (data in Table 18 in annex II)

kg (eq. G) /pers/month 2

nbr of people per hh

Different factors may explain this strong trend: - Large households have more young children who consume less, and who are more

attracted by new foods. - As the household gets bigger, decisions about the food prepared are not only related to

the parents, and compromises have to be found. This often involves more substitution. - The coarse taste of mahangu flour, the sand, and the relatively small variety of recipes

available are also common answers when young people are asked about their preferences.

Changes also occur in terms of meal preparation in bigger households. Whilst there is a significant decrease in the consumption of the thick porridge oshifima * , consumption of the

soft fermented drink oshikundu * tends to increase with family size. Whereas 40% of mahangu consumers who live alone or in a couple say that they do not prepare the drink, this rate drops

to 27% when there are between 6 and 10 people living in the household. The presence of children is favourable to consumption of this drink.

3.2.3 Income level

Considering only the Oshiwambo population, the LSM does not affect the consumer ratio in either city. However, when we look at the quantities consumed, there does appear to be income elasticity (income is approximated by LSM). We estimate that income elasticity equals –0.18 for the whole urban population (Oshakati+Windhoek) using a log-log model (see

details in appendix III). This result 1 is illustrated in Figure 2. Only respondents who consume

mahangu are represented in the graph below 2 .

Figure 2: Evolution of quantity consumed in Windhoek as income level increases.

Qty ( Eq Gr.)/pers/month 1

LSM

This figure, and the results of the modeling (Appendix III), show a negative elasticity of consumption. This illustrates the fact that mahangu products are considered as a staple food. Nevertheless, consumption remains relatively high, even for the higher income bands.

3.3 Price, availability of cereals and substitution effects

3.3.1 Current prices on the market

In October in Windhoek the cheapest staple food in the supermarket was mahangu at N$ 4.40/Kg. Next came maize at N$ 5.15, and then rice and potatoes at N$ 6. Pasta was more

expensive at N$ 9/Kg 1 . In May in Oshakati, the prices were lower for mahangu flour (3.3 N$/kg), for maize flour (4.1 N$/kg), and for macaroni (5.3 N$/kg). The rice and wheat flour

were equivalent to those found in Windhoek in October (about 6 N$/kg). Appendix III gives details on the mahangu prices in Oshakati according to place of sale, packaging and brand.

Table 6: Comparison of prices of different staples in Oshakati, 22-24 May 2002

average standard in N$/kg deviation

mahangu flour

(pure and mix) maize flour

wheat flour

Data collected in Spar, Shoprite and Pick&Pay in Oshakati, 22-25 May 2002

During all the period of the study, it thus appeared that in both Oshakati and Windhoek, mahangu flour was the cheapest product. This situation is however not usual, and due to the high variability of maize and rice prices on international markets, as well as the current depreciation of the Namibian dollar, it is subject to variation. As said in the methodology, people seem to have a slow reaction the price variations in the supermarkets and the duration of the study did not allow to analyse in detail these reactions which are complex since they are linked to the non marketed supply.

3.3.2 Availability of cereals and substitution habits

When mahangu consumers are asked what other staple foods they eat instead of mahangu, only three major products are mentioned regularly. These are rice, pasta (wheat), and vegetables (bean and potatoes). Maize is not really considered as a substitute. However, it does appear to be used as a supplement to mahangu. Most mahangu consumers (80% in Windhoek, 70% in Oshakati) mix mahangu with maize for different reasons, but rarely consume maize alone. The new trend of access to affordable rice and pasta, whilst maize prices are rising, tends to amplify this diversification. These products all represent an alternative to the traditional porridge. At the national level, maize supply tends to compensate for low mahangu production, in order to provide to the country with more than 300,000 metric tons of cereals per year for human consumption (for 2000, excluding beer, FAOstat). Millet represents one fifth of national cereal consumption, with maize and white rice representing one third each (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Proportion of cereal used for human consumption in Namibia 1 . FAOstat 2001

White rice Wheat Maize

If we consider the increase in the population, the availability of rice per inhabitant has remained very stable over the past ten years (cf. Figure 4). The data do not show a tendency to

substitute other cereals.

1 The wheat quantities include its use for pasta and bread.

Figure 4: Availability of white rice over the past ten years (kg/inhab). FAO stat 2001

kg/inhab

There have not been any important changes in consumption over the past ten years. There seems to be a good balance between cereals. The main variation comes from the availability

of mahangu, due to climate fluctuations. Less mahangu implies more maize imports, but it does not affect the amount of rice imported.

3.4 Uses of mahangu

3.4.1 Everyday consumption

A broad variety of meals and drinks made out of mahangu have been identified. The most popular meal is the traditional oshifima, a thick porridge made from fermented or

unfermented flour 1 . (83% of consumers in Windhoek and 95% in Oshakati prepare it at least once every two days). High consumption decreases in the higher income levels, but one third of consumers in LSM 5 eat it at least once a day, and one quarter in LSM 6 in Windhoek.

In Oshakati, consumption levels remain very high in all income groups. Fifty percent of the highest income level consume it at least once a day.

The other important dish is okatete, a thin mahangu porridge commonly prepared for young children and babies. Half of the consumers prepare it at least every two days. But almost 40% of consumers never prepare it, particularly those who do not have young children. The cake omungome, made with mahangu flour, is also very popular with young children. The other dishes, oshitaka * and olumbololo * , are consumed by only about one third of consumers.

Street consumption of these products is very low. In Windhoek no small restaurant or caterer was found selling any of these products (except for the drinks), and in Oshakati there were very few. But, with expansion of the city, and increasing distances between home and work, this kind of service may well appear in the future.

1 "Fermented flour" refers here to flour ground from grain that has been soaked in water for between a few hours

Table 7: Distribution of consumers (%) according to frequency of preparation, for each dish.

Oshakati High*

Windhoek

Medium* Low/never* Dish

Medium* Low/never*

*high: more than 12 times a month; medium: between 1 and 12 times a month; low/never: less than once a month)

The drinks are also commonly prepared, especially oshikundu * , a fermented but non- alcoholic drink made from mahangu flour and malted sorghum. It is an everyday drink known

for its nutritious energy-giving and refreshing attributes, and is enjoyed by the whole family. Fermented flour is not necessary for its preparation, as it ferments anyway during the process. That is why non-fermented commercial flour is often used to prepare it, which helps to save the fermented flour from the farms.

The other drinks are alcoholic beverages, more popular in Windhoek household consumption. But this data does not take into account the significant street consumption of these products.

3.4.2 Special occasions

As a traditional product, mahangu is associated with many social and cultural events in northern areas. In addition to the oshifima and oshikundu described above, the fermented drink omaluvu is very common on such occasions. But no other dish appears to be prepared or consumed on such occasions.

3.5 Channels and forms of mahangu supply

1 In contrast to other cereals 2 , mahangu is grown in communal areas in Namibia, mostly for on-farm consumption purposes. Because many urban dwellers have relations who farm in

these areas, an important part of the urban family’s mahangu supply comes through non- commercial channels (about 70% of mahangu consumers say they have access to products

from family farms in Windhoek and Oshakati).

1 Except for sorghum and maize grown in communal areas. However, these are not aimed at the urban market.

3.5.1 Traded vs non-traded mahangu

For the month of June, about 60% of consumers in Oshakati, and 50% in Windhoek said that they get their mahangu "as a gift". And the relative share of this "mahangu for free" tends to increase as incomes increase (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Channels of supply according to LSM in Windhoek (left) and Oshakati (right)

other 100

given bought other

1 2 3 LSM 4 5 6 LSM1 LSM2 LSM3 LSM4 LSM5 LSM6

LSM

Non-commercial channels of supply show the importance of mahangu in Oshiwambo social organisation. Urban family members supplied by their rural family do not usually pay or exchange anything for the mahangu. It is considered as a gift. And, as with any gift, there is a reciprocity to it, but not necessarily at the same time or for the same commercial value (this can be clothes, money, goods or food). Its first purpose is to enhance social links and solidarity between family members. Each transaction usually allows family consumption once or twice per month.

3.5.2 Sources of supply

In terms of sources of supply, diversification increases with income level. For traded mahangu , the supermarket is the dominant source, with small shops becoming important for the lowest income level. It is also significant to note the small volume of mahangu sold on the open market in Windhoek.

Figure 6: Sources of supply according to LSM in Windhoek (above) and Oshakati (below)

own homestaed

other homestead

small shops

super market

other

LSM 3 2

60 80 100 own homestead

other homestead

open market

small shops other

LSM6 LSM5 LSM4 LSM3 LSM2 LSM1

The importance of the open market as a source of supply decreases significantly in Windhoek, where the supermarket is the most important. Since most of the mahangu trade in Windhoek goes through the supermarkets, it is important that the mahangu available there should be able to compete with other products in terms of both quality and availability.

3.5.3 Forms of supply

• Grain in Oshakati, but flour in Windhoek

The answers show important differences between Oshakati and Windhoek. In the traded supply system in Oshakati, 63% of consumers buy grain when they go to the

open market, and almost 90% when purchasing in small shops. In Windhoek, 100% of the traded supply involves flour. This difference is the same in the non-traded mahangu supply system. In Oshakati, nearly 90% of the supply from rural family members is in the form of grain. In Windhoek, this rate falls to 10% (Detailed Table 27, appendix II ). It is also interesting to note that the origin of the grain, that is, where it was grown, is important only to open market, and almost 90% when purchasing in small shops. In Windhoek, 100% of the traded supply involves flour. This difference is the same in the non-traded mahangu supply system. In Oshakati, nearly 90% of the supply from rural family members is in the form of grain. In Windhoek, this rate falls to 10% (Detailed Table 27, appendix II ). It is also interesting to note that the origin of the grain, that is, where it was grown, is important only to

• Consumers prefer to buy grain rather than flour

Consumers prefer to buy grain when they have the choice, as in Oshakati, where they do not go to the supermarkets to buy flour.

Compared to buying flour, buying grain has many advantages. (1)

First, it is easier to evaluate and control the quality. It is easy to see if it is fresh, dehulled, and without moisture, sand or any other foreign matter.

(2) The second reason is the total control of the process. Soaking/fermentation can

be done according to one’s own family habits and preferences. The proportion of bran in the flour can be adapted to one’s own taste, as can the coarseness of the flour. And it can be adapted to the final consumers: unfermented flour for

young children and the husband 2 , and fermented flour for the others. (3)

A third reason is the possibility of using the by-products of processing, such as bran, to prepare fermented drinks like oshikundu. It is an important part of the recipe, and this brings down the cost of the drink.

(4) And finally, grain can be stored for longer. This aspect should not be underestimated. The main limitation on Windhoek consumers in bringing more mahangu back from the production area is the short storage life of the flour, and not the on-farm availability of the mahangu.

3.5.4 The importance of service milling

The difference between the grain supply in Windhoek and Oshakati is directly related to the almost complete absence of service mills in Windhoek. In Oshakati, despite the lack of direct support from the Government, there are many service mills, and many urban consumers

use them regularly 3 . The survey showed that 60% of households which use grain process it at

a service mill. And the choice between hand and mechanical work is related to the availability of money and time. Quality is not a determinant in this choice.

Less than 5% of consumers pound the grain themselves in Windhoek. Those who do usually have a traditional milling place in their house. However, the practice requires

investment in the mill, and the time for milling. And such investment is very rare, partly because of the insecurity of most northern Windhoek households. Michel Mallet also notes a social dimension: people would be ashamed to be seen pounding millet in Katutura. It is not considered to be an urban activity/way of life.

1 Results for Oshakati. Not enough grain users in Windhoek for statistical analysis. Total exceeds 100%. More than one answer was possible when asking which quality criteria were considered important.

2 It is common to hear that babies should consume unfermented mahangu because of its more nutritious content. Manual workers also prefer this form of mahangu because of the strength of the food.

3 M. Mallet and P. du Plessis - Mahangu post harvest systems, research report

3.6 Industrial and semi-industrial products

3.6.1 Origin of the bought flour: a good penetration of "commercial" flour compared to industrial flour

Consumers were specifically asked about the brands of flour they had purchased over the last month (June 2002). The results are reported below in Table 8. This shows that, altogether, industrial products (Pure Meme Mahangu and Mahangu-Maize mix Meme Mahangu) are more commonly purchased than commercial flour (from ABC mills, Okavu, Ongenga, Kamalanga, Eneas, Ts properties, Ongha Moonlight, M.N. Milling, Okahao Milling, Eluwa). In Windhoek, 54% of consumers bought industrial flour and 25% bought commercial flour during June 2002. In Oshakati, the difference is smaller but the share of the industrial product is still double that of commercial flour (29% of consumers against 15%).

However, and in spite of these differences, it should be noted that the commercial millers have penetrated the market very well, given that they are relatively small in size, and have a specific distribution network (not in the supermarkets). This good penetration can be linked to the specificity of the product (fermented), to the good reputation (fame) of the processors among the consumers, and to personal connections with the consumers/buyers.

Table 8: Ratio of consumers who had purchased a brand in the past month (July 2002)

Meme Mahangu

52 48 27 83 Meme Mahangu(maize mix)

Total industrial

Okavu mills

16 84 3 97 ABC mills

5 95 6 94 Kamalanga mills

5 95 1 99 Eluwa mills

3 97 6 94 Okahao mills

2 98 1.5 98.5 Ongha Moonlight mills

2 98 0.5 99.5 Ongenga mills

1 99 1 99 Eneas mills

1 99 2 98 M.N mills

0.5 99.5 2 98 Ts Properties mills

Total commercial

N=212 in Windhoek ; N=337 in Oshakati

The distribution of the buyers between the different LSMs (Figure 7) shows that, in Oshakati, people with a higher standard of living tend to buy more flour from the commercial millers, compared to the poorer people who buy more industrial flour. This may be due to The distribution of the buyers between the different LSMs (Figure 7) shows that, in Oshakati, people with a higher standard of living tend to buy more flour from the commercial millers, compared to the poorer people who buy more industrial flour. This may be due to

In Windhoek, the results are not clear and it does not seem that the use of industrial versus commercial flour is related to the LSM.

Figure 7: Market share of industrial and commercial products according to LSM

60% 80% 100% Industrial only both

commercial only

Industrial only both commercial only

3.6.2 Brand fame

The fame of the different brands was assessed in both cities. The people were asked if they had ever tasted the products.

Table 9 : Fame of different brands of mahangu flour available on the market

Oshakati Tasted Never tasted Tasted Never tasted

Windhoek

Meme Mahangu

69 31 53 47 Meme Mahangu(maize mix)

42 58 20 80 Okavu mills

23 77 7 93 ABC mills

8 92 12 88 Kamalanga mills

7 93 3 97 Eluwa mills

6 94 12 88 Okahao mills

5 95 4 96 Ongha Moonlight mills

3 97 2 98 Ongenga mills

2 98 3 97 Eneas mills

2 98 2 98 Ts Properties mills

1 99 1 99 M.N mills

Meme mahangu had been eaten in the past month (July 2002) by half of the consumers in Windhoek, and 27% in Oshakati. Okavu mill also has good market penetration in Windhoek, with 16% of consumers.

3.7 Processing of mahangu

Processing the grain into flour mainly concerns Oshakati households, since the Windhoek households obtain their supplies exclusively as flour. The grain is usually cleaned, dehulled

by pounding, and soaked into water for a period of time which varies from a few hours to two or even three days. This soaking helps to remove the sand and the dust, to tenderise the grain

and to make it easier to pound, and finally induces fermentation 1 . This fermentation is encouraged by the use of warm water and the addition of a starter (previously fermented

product). Sometimes the grain is put in a plastic bag in the sun for a few hours. It is then dried before milling. The flour is usually dried again.

3.7.1 Fermentation

• Relative importance of fermentation

The majority of the population seems to prefer the fermented 2 flour, since it is consumed by between one half and two thirds of the population (Table 10), and in both cities only 20% of the respondents say that they did not use fermented flour the last time they cooked. In Windhoek, many respondents do not know whether the mahangu flour used has been fermented or not (35%). This is certainly due to the fact that they do not process the grain themselves, but only acquire previously ground flour (received or bought).

Table 10: Percentage of consumers using fermented/unfermented flour.

Windhoek Oshakati

Fermented flour

45 67 Unfermented flour

20 24 Don’t know

A mixture of fermented and unfermented flour

• Reasons for fermentation/soaking

When asked about the reasons for their choice (fermented/unfermented), most people had very clear ideas. Only a small proportion of the answers (less than 10 %, Figure 9 and

1 Fermentation consists of the transformation of long molecules, such as starch or proteins, into smaller ones. It also results in the inhibition of some anti-nutritional components (Reddy and Pierson 1994). Major consequences

are an increase in acidity, and better digestibility. It also modifies the colour and taste of the product, as between milk and yoghurt. The process needs a supply of lactic ferments, a good environment in terms of heat and

Figure 10) and of the respondents (15 to 20%, Figure 8) referred to vague reasons such as tradition or habit. Most people show a preference for the quality attributes of the fermented flour: colour (whiter), taste and smell (very specific), and digestibility. A technical reason (easier to pound) is quoted by 54% of the consumers, but represents less than 25% of all the answers. It is surprising that the effect on sand (which goes with the soaking water) is never mentioned. The reasons for using the unfermented flour refer to its specific characteristics: people "feel stronger", the food stays "longer in the stomach", and it helps to "keep vitamins". The energy advantage of unfermented flour is regularly mentioned. According to the quantitative survey, the use of fermented or unfermented flour by households is not linked to the income level or the age of the respondent. However, qualitative surveys show that young individuals prefer fermented flour, because of its softer taste.

Figure 8: Reasons for using fermented or unfermented flour % of consumers

I feel stronger

The flour

(more healthy)

looks whiter

54% nutrients/vitamins

If soaked, you

It is easier to

49% It tastes better

It tastes better

I like the smell

It lasts longer in the stomach

It is our tradition/habit

It is our tradition/habit

It is easier to

digest

60% 80% % of 118 UNFERMENTED flour

% of 329 FERMENTED flour consumers consumers

who gave each of the answers

spontaneously

Figure 9: Reasons why consumers prefer fermented flour, by city.

As a percentage of answers. More than one answer was possible. Answers were free and not suggested by enumerators.

easier to easier to

other

digest pound

tradition

easier to

easier to

prefer the

smell

prefer the tastes

colour better

prefer the

prefer the

colour

taste

Figure 10: Reasons why consumers prefer unfermented flour, by city.

As a percentage of answers. More than one answer was possible. Answers were free and not suggested by enumerators.

WINDHOEK

OSHAKATI

last longer tradition

tradition reasons

prefer the

it lasts

stronger

taste

longer in

it tastes

better

it

contains feel

more stronger

vitamins 32%

• Conclusion on the demand for fermentation

Qualitative interviews show that most people do not prefer one flour over another, but tend to use one or the other, depending on the specific final consumer. For instance, un-fermented flour is usually given to manual workers (lasts longer/ gives more energy), pregnant women and babies (contains more vitamins). On the other hand, most adults prefer fermented flour for themselves and for children because of its colour and taste. Actually, families who pound their millet themselves (or using service mills) tend to prepare both kinds of flour, depending on the users.

The nutritional advantages (bioavailability of iron, better digestibility, inhibition of diarrhoea-causing pathogens, etc.) of fermentation are recognised by several other studies (Jonsson et al, 1994, quoted by Mallet and Du Plessis, 2001, p. 22,) and these products are now recommended to people who are HIV-positive.

These two reasons (traditional preference for the taste of fermented flour + new demand from nutritionists and the health sector) are an encouragement for the development of industrial or semi-industrial fermented flour.

3.7.2 Maize as a complement to mahangu

People consuming mahangu products often mix it with maize. This practice concerns 80% of consumers in Windhoek and 70% in Oshakati. Even if it is absolutely not described as a tradition, it appears to be a new habit in urban areas, motivated by many reasons. One frequently given is that mixing with maize helps to save mahangu. This widespread "habit" of saving mahangu is commonly attributed to years of poor harvest, and to the memory of famine years. Saving mahangu now for urban consumers means saving the type they like and get from their rural family. But, as shown below, the preference for taste is also important.

Table 11: % of reasons mentioned for mixing maize and mahangu when cooking porridge.

Windhoek Oshakati Technical reasons

The mix is easier to cook than mahangu

18 12 flour alone

Reasons of economy

“ In order to save mahangu

34 29 When mixed, you can cook more porridge

3 14 Because maize is less expensive than mahangu

Organoleptic and nutritional reasons

It tastes better

23 5 Mahangu alone is too strong

9 7 The porridge looks whiter

7 16 It is easier to digest

Other

People who mix mahangu with maize and those who consume mahangu alone all recognise that mahangu is stronger/more nutritious than maize.

Table 12: % of reasons mentioned for NOT mixing maize and mahangu when cooking porridge.

Windhoek Oshakati Reasons of economy

“ Maize is too expensive

Organoleptic and nutritional reasons

It tastes better

44 35 Mahangu alone is more nutritious

22 18 The pure mahangu porridge lasts longer in

11 14 stomach

Other reasons

It is the tradition not to mix

20 9 Other

3.8 Perception of the products

3.8.1 Maize versus mahangu?

• Is there competition?

It seems that there is no direct competition between maize and mahangu, when looking at the reasons for consumption of these two products. To simplify the situation, we can say that we have “maize consumers” and “mahangu consumers”. Mahangu consumers eat mahangu mixed with maize for different reasons, which have been discussed (Table 11). Both groups diversify their diet with new products (rice, vegetables, pasta). When mahangu becomes scarce or expensive, the mahangu consumers tend to increase the proportion of maize flour in their mahangu porridge.

• Maize consumers

When asking non- mahangu consumers if they have ever tried mahangu meal, 66% percent answer "no". The result is almost the same (61%) when the question is specifically

put to maize meal consumers. The different reasons explaining why they have never tried mahangu are detailed in Table

Table 13: Reason why non-consumers have never tried a mahangu product.

% of households

It is not our tradition

44 We do not know how to cook it

I do not want to try it

15 It looks dirty or not safe

8 Other

Free answer. Total is more than 100%, more than one answer is possible

Only 8% of respondents have a negative image of the product, and say that mahangu products look dirty and unhygienic. The predominance of the answers: "It is not our tradition" and "I do not want to try" is more likely to show a lack of knowledge about the food, and the unambiguous idea that most of non-consumers have of mahangu, and to illustrate the gap between maize consumers and mahangu consumers. And the first step in promoting mahangu

to non-traditional consumers will be to go beyond this assumption. Quality products of the standard of maize are necessary if mahangu is to compete with

maize. When looking at the image of the products to the non-consumer, the traditional aspects and the fact that it is a Namibian product should not be advertised for marketing purposes. Communication regarding the product should emphasise its healthy and nutritious aspects,

3.8.2 The pioneer

About 22% of Windhoek’s whole population do not consume mahangu regularly, but have tasted it at least once 1 (this rate is about one third for the non-consumer population). They were asked why do they not consume mahangu more regularly (Table 14).

Table 14: Reasons given by people who have tasted mahangu a least once for why do they not consume it regularly.

% of households

Mahangu is difficult to find

47 We eat it only on specials occasions or when invited

25 We do not really like it

18 Mahangu is too expensive

16 It is too time-consuming/difficult to prepare

14 There are no quality products available

12 Other

Free answer. Total higher than 100% because more than one answer was possible

Only one fifth of the respondents who had tasted mahangu said they did not really like it. The other answers show problems of availability of the product, quality, communication and marketing. Social environment is probably the main factor which influences the non- mahangu consumer to try the product. Oshiwambo friends or relatives, children, and the place you live in Windhoek are factors which contribute to that. LSM does not appear to be a factor influencing interest in the product. However, as shown in the table below, mother tongue does.

Table 15: Ratio of non-consumers who have never tasted a mahangu product, according to mother language.

Mother tongue

Tried

Never tried

52 48 Khoi_Khoi

50 50 Damara-Nama

43 57 Otjiherero

27 73 Afrikaans

22 78 German

3.8.3 Opinions about mahangu

In order to assess the image non-consumers have of mahangu, their opinion was asked about few common ideas on mahangu. (Table 16)

Table 16: Some views of non-mahangu consumers

Agree Disagree N/A

Mahangu looks a healthy food

69 17 14 Mahangu is a staple food of our nation, and many things

66 21 13 have to be done to improve its consumption

There is not enough communication / publicity for mahangu

62 25 13 Mahangu looks nutritious

61 25 14 Mahangu can compete with other staple foods

46 41 13 Mahangu and sorghum are food for Owambo people only

28 61 11 Mahangu looks dirty/disgusting

The healthy and nutritious image of mahangu are the first answers when asking non- consumers their opinion. They appear to be important aspects to communicate in promoting the products to non-consumers. Most of these perceptions of the product are positive, except for about 25% of respondents who say that the product looks disgusting or is for traditional consumers only.

Projective test

Table 17: Opinions of mahangu consumers when asked why people do not consume

more mahangu in Oshakati and Windhoek (free answers).

% of households

They have access to other products like rice or pasta

51 It is not their tradition

41 Mahangu is too scarce

39 Good quality products are difficult to find

19 They don't have time to prepare it

18 Because it is a food for rural people

18 Mahangu is too expensive

17 They do not like the taste

13 They don't have access to a field (free product)

5 Other

3.8.4 Interest in new products

Opinion was surveyed about about a few new products, to test the receptivity of non- consumers to mahangu (Table 18)

Table 18: Interest of non- mahangu consumers in new mahangu products

Interested

Not interested N/A

Good quality and nicely packaged

50 38 12 traditional mahangu flour

Baby food

46 41 13 Commercial preparation for oshikundu

Improving flour quality seems to be a priority in developing new products. Baby food should not be produced, as long as mahangu has the image of a product which is not clean.

3.8.5 Quality criteria

Because of the form in which they obtain their supplies, people in Windhoek were asked about the quality criteria of importance for flour, whereas in Oshakati, they were asked about the criteria for grain. People seem to be more demanding regarding quality criteria in Oshakati (grain) than in Windhoek (flour) (Table 18 and Table 19). Less than 30% of consumers have special quality requirements for flour, whereas this figure is 70% for the grain. Concerning the flour, the main criterion for the whole population appears to be cleanliness (this is important for 29% of consumers). The age and the variety of the grain are the main concerns for grain buyers.

In Windhoek, there is a clear relationship between living standards and requirements for flour quality (the richer are more demanding than the poor), while in Oshakati there is no relationship between living standards and quality requirements.

Table 19: Percentage of consumers saying these criteria are important in evaluating flour quality, according to LSM (Windhoek)

ALL LSM1 LSM2 LSM3 LSM4 LSM5 LSM6

N obs.

64 15 21 25 40 49 Clean

29 5 17 15 41 60 42 Smell

24 3 14 20 27 29 39 Fresh

23 2 11 15 25 47 38 Colour

22 6 14 20 23 45 29 Smooth

22 2 11 15 30 42 37 Fermented

19 5 7 10 25 33 35 Whole

17 8 7 24 23 22 21 Pound

16 2 4 17 25 28 21 Origin

Table 20: Percentage of consumers saying these criteria are important in evaluating grain quality, according to LSM (Oshakati)

ALL LSM1 LSM2 LSM3 LSM4 LSM5 LSM6

3.9 Projections of demand for the year 2010 in Windhoek

3.9.1 Effect of population growth