Refer to Important disclosures on the last of this report
O c t- 1 7 N o v -1 7 D e c -1 7 J a n -1 8 J a n -1 8 F e b -1 8 M a r- 1 8 M a r- 1 8 A p r- 1 8 M a y -1 8 M a y -1 8 J u n -1 8 J u l- 1 8 J u l- 1 8 A u g -1 8 S e p -1 8 O c t- 1 8 O c t- 1 8 CTRA-Rebase JCI Index-Rebase
27.0 PER (x)
1.1
12.6 PBV (x)
13.4
14.0
17.0
17.7
28.5
0.9
25.0
28.0
22.3
6.1 Net Gearing (%)
4.1
21.9
3.8
1.0
0.8
61
7.2
90 100 110 120
80
70
60
E q u it y | I n d o n e s ia | P ro p e rt y
6.8 Source: CTRA, IndoPremier Share Price Closing as of : 31-October-2018
7.0
0.8 Dividend Yield (%)
9.8
8.1
0.8 EV/EBITDA (x)
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.8
65 EPS Growth (%) (32.8)
59
Stock Data
6M
Latest EPS (Rp)
Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus 2018 2019
Founders 30.6% Credit Suisse AG 9.5% Fine C Capital group 6.3%
Major Shareholders
Absolute (%) -15.9 -15.9 -33.1 Relative to JCI (%) -13.0 -16.6 -29.3 52w high/low (Rp) 1,380 - 735
12M
3M
73.5 Vs. Prior EPS (%)
0.9 Price Performance
53.6 Avg. 6m dailyT/O (US$ m)
Sharesoutstanding (m) 15,425 Marketcap. (US$ m) 832 Free float (%)
Upside/downside (%) +65.2
Shareprice (Rp) Rp820
Prior TP (Rp) Rp1,355
Target price (Rp) Rp1,355
70.7
0.0
48
Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)
46
7.3 Net Profit (RpBn) 862 894 1,090 1,134 1,204 EPS (Rp)
2.8
25.4
Revenue (RpBn) 6,739 6,443 7,781 8,025 8,838 EBITDA (RpBn) 1,663 1,383 1,734 1,783 1,914 EBITDA Growth (%) (25.2) (16.8)
Year To 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
01 November 2018 Results Note BUY (Unchanged)
Maintain Buy with TP of Rp1,355 (unchanged). CTRA is one of our top picks in residential property sector given its aggressive launching through JV and JO and its diverse portfolio on 33 locations across Indonesia. Given in-line 9M18 earnings and marketing sales, we maintain Buy on CTRA with unchanged TP of Rp1,355. CTRA currently trades at 78% discount to our estimate RNAV or FY18F P/B of 0.8x providing attractive valuations for the counter.
0.0 Vs. Consensus (%) 3.0 (12.0)
New township project with Cendana family. Other than its own projects, CTRA will launch a new township in Sentul, with total area of 1,000ha. The development will be integrated with International Sentul Circuit and Palm Hill Golf Course, which will be developed through a partnership with the land owner, Cendana family. In the first phase CTRA will launch 400 landed house with ticket price of Rp700mn-Rp1bnm which expected to contribute Rp200-300bn of marketing sales. We like CTRA’s aggressive strategy to launch new projects through JV and JO with land owners. We believe the partnership will limit CTRA’s risk if the projects take up rate is not successful.
9M18 (+2% yoy), in-line with company’s target, forming 67% of company’s FY18 guidance of Rp7.7tn. In the remaining 2018, CTRA plans 5 products launching 1) Newton 2 Apartment, 2) Second Phase of CitraLand Gama City Medan, 3) New District in CitraRaya Tangerang 4) Second Residential cluster in Citra Maja. Given numerous launching in the 4Q18, we believe company’s FY18 marketing sales
target of Rp7.7tn is achievable.
Strong 9M18 marketing sales. CTRA reported marketing sales of Rp5.1tn in
Expect better margin in FY18F. CTRA reported flat 9M18 earnings of Rp580bn (+2% yoy), in-line with expectation, forming 53%/55% of our/consensus’ FY18 estimate. In 9M18, CTRA recorded better gross and operating margin of 48.8% and 27.4% (9M17: 47.9% and 26.6%), respectively due to slower growth in COGS (+5.9% yoy) and Opex (+0.6% yoy). However, net margin were slightly decreased to to 12.4% in 9M18 (9M17: 13%) due to increase interest expense of Rp534bn (+41% yoy). In quarterly basis, CTRA booked strong 3Q18 earnings of Rp404bn (+692% qoq, 78% yoy), forming 37% of consensus FY18F estimate. In addition, we expect CTRA margins to improve in FY18F, given recognition of higher margin project in 4Q18 such as CitraLand Surabaya.
Strong 3Q18 result but still in-line Flat 9M18 earnings (+2% yoy), in-line with expectation. Resilient marketing sales achievement, 67% of FY18F target. Limited risk due to JO and JV launching. Maintain Buy with TP of Rp1,355 (unchanged).
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas [email protected]
Source: Bloomberg Joey Faustian
- 62 21 5793 1168
Fig. 1: Revenue by segment Fig. 2: 9M18 revenue by segment (Rp bn) Recurring income Property sales 10,000
Residential and Shop
9,000
Houses 27%
8,000
Apartment
7,000 6,000
Office
5,000
53% 2%
4,000
Land lots 7%
3,000 2,000
Recurring
12% 1,000
- 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: Company, IndoPremier Source: Company, IndoPremier Fig. 3: Marketing sales trend Fig. 4: 9M18 marketing sales achievement (Rp bn)
Pre sales Achievement to full year 12,000 (Rp bn) 9,861 6,000
70% 10,000 69% 9,200
9,056 8,545 69% 8,153
5,000 7,650 68% 8,000
67% 6,861
67% 4,000 66% 6,000
3,000 65% 4,000 64%
63% 2,000
63% 2,000 62% 1,000 61%
60% 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
9M16
9M17
9M18 Source: Company, IndoPremier Source: Company, IndoPremier
Fig. 5: 9M18 presales breakdown by unit price Fig. 6: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
55.0% >Rp5bn 50.0%
6% 45.0%
Rp2-5bn* 40.0%
Rp1-2bn
38%
35.0% <Rp1bn
30.0% 36%
25.0% 20.0% 15.0%
- Includes Rp575 block
10.0%
sales of Newton 1
20% 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F
serviced apartment to Diener Syz
Gross margin Operating margin Net margin
Source: Company, IndoPremier Source: Company, IndoPremier
Fig.7: 9M18 result (Rp bn)
9M18
9M17 YoY
3Q18
2Q18 QoQ % of Ours % of Consensus
Revenue 4,691 4,348 7.9% 1,886 1,447 30.3% 60% 62% Gross profit 2,289 2,081 10.0% 964 697 38.3% 60% 64% Operating profit 1,169 967 20.9% 623 244 155.5% 56% 60% Net profit 580 566 2.4% 404 51 692.2% 53% 55% Gross margin 48.8% 47.9% 51.1% 48.1% Operating margin 24.9% 22.2% 33.1% 16.9% Net margin 12.4% 13.0% 21.4% 3.5%
Source: Company, IndoPremier
Year To 31 Dec (RpBn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Income Statement
Net Revenue 6,739 6,443 7,781 8,025 8,838 Cost of Sales (3,450) (3,423) (3,972) (4,088) (4,562) Gross Profit 3,290 3,019 3,809 3,937 4,276 SG&A Expenses (1,484) (1,461) (1,739) (1,798) (1,986) Operating Profit 1,806 1,559 2,070 2,139 2,290 Net Interest (294) (327) (503) (517) (559) Forex Gain (Loss) Others-Net 44 111
67 88 102 Pre-Tax Income 1,555 1,343 1,634 1,710 1,832 Income Tax (385) (324) (381) (406) (448) Minorities (309) (124) (163) (170) (180) Net Income 862 894 1,090 1,134 1,204
Balance Sheet
3,468 3,229 4,790 4,636 5,240 Cash & Equivalent
1,702 1,797 1,835 2,052 2,270 Receivable
7,945 9,480 10,455 10,945 11,820 Inventory 595 662 768 790 882 Other Current Assets
13,711 15,167 17,847 18,423 20,210 Total Current Assets
12,743 13,756 14,657 15,609 16,460 Fixed Assets - Net Goodwill
2,103 2,463 2,956 3,547 4,363 Non Current Assets
29,072 31,706 35,666 37,713 41,123 Total Assets
1,686 1,170 1,413 1,641 1,673 ST Loans 829 839 992 1,110 Payable
4,796 5,774 7,024 6,959 7,972 Other Payables Current Portion of LT Loans
7,311 7,783 9,400 9,591 10,755 Total Current Liab. 4,976 6,388 7,589 8,207 8,935
Long Term Loans 2,487 2,085 1,828 1,642 1,572 Other LT Liab. 14,774 16,255 18,817 19,440 21,263
Total Liabilities 4,820 8,247 8,247 8,247 8,247
Equity 7,824 5,131 6,129 7,152 8,241
Retained Earnings 1,654 2,073 2,473 2,873 3,373
Minority Interest 14,298 15,451 16,849 18,272 19,861 Total SHE + Minority Int.
Total Liabilities & Equity 29,072 31,706 35,666 37,713 41,123
Source: CTRA, IndoPremier
Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Cash Flow
1,171 1,019 1,253 1,304 1,384 Net Income (Excl.Extraordinary&Min.Int) 243 263 335 355 376 Depr. & Amortization
(754) (1,640) (286) (633) (811) Changes in Working Capital
(132) (1,995) 1,324 940 237 Others 527 (2,354) 2,626 1,966 1,186
Cash Flow From Operating (1,876) (1,636) (1,729) (1,898) (2,043)
Capital Expenditure 275 410 435 399 372 Others
(1,601) (1,226) (1,295) (1,499) (1,672) Cash Flow From Investing
1,385 896 1,444 846 760 Loans 165 4,247 Equity
(123) (88) (91) (111) (116) Dividends
(1,259) (1,347) (721) (643) (485) Others 169 3,709 631
91 159 Cash Flow From Financing
(905) 129 1,962 558 (327) Changes in Cash
Financial Ratios
48.8
46.9
49.0
49.1
48.4 Gross Margin (%)
26.8
24.2
26.6
26.7
25.9 Operating Margin (%)
23.1
20.8
21.0
21.3
20.7 Pre-Tax Margin (%)
12.8
13.9
14.0
14.1
13.6 Net Margin (%)
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.1 ROA (%)
6.3
6.0
6.7
6.5
6.3 ROE (%)
6.9
5.6
6.4
6.0
5.8 ROIC (%)
49.1
53.7
47.0
49.5
49.1 Acct. Receivables TO (days)
32.9
45.4
38.1
38.9
40.1 Acct. Receivables - Other TO (days)
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4 Inventory TO (days)
92.2
88.9
82.8
87.2
84.1 Payable TO (days)
55.3
55.8
67.4
87.2
84.1 Acct. Payables - Other TO (days)
46.6
48.9
53.4
53.9
53.4 Debt to Equity (%)
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4 Interest Coverage Ratio (x)
22.3
28.0
25.0
28.5
27.0 Net Gearing (%)
Source: CTRA, IndoPremier
Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this