SMRA Terganjal Terbatasnya Produk Baru 20181207 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)

Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA)

  Terganjal Terbatasnya Produk Baru Company Report | Dec 7, 2018 Tren Penurunan COGS Mengerek Margin

  Pada 3Q18, SMRA mencatatkan kinerja yang luar biasa. Pendapatan tercatat sebesar Rp1,36 triliun (+3,6% y-y)— angka pertumbuhan tertinggi sejak 2Q17—

Hold

  serta turut mengerek laba bersih 3Q18 menjadi Rp125 miliar (+76,9% y-y). Selain itu,

Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 960

  tren penurunan COGS, terutama di segmen rumah tapak, terus berlanjut sejak Consensus Price (IDR) 868 2Q18 dan akan mendongkrak kinerja margin SMRA pada FY18.

  TP to Consensus Price +10.6% vs. Last Price +12.3% Marketing Sales 10M18: 60,1% dari Target Hingga akhir Oktober 2018, SMRA baru mencatatkan marketing sales Rp2,40 triliun

  Shares data (+4,7% y-y), atau setara 60,1% dari target FY18. Di akhir tahun ini, memang Last Price (IDR) 855 marketing sales SMRA akan ditopang oleh peluncuran tiga klaster hunian di wilayah

  Price date as of Dec 5, 2018 existing dan dua klaster hunian di kota mandiri baru, Summarecon Mutiara Makassar. 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,205 / 555 Dari klaster residensial di Serpong dan Bandung, SMRA dapat meraup masing- Free float (%)

  58.9 masing Rp180 miliar dan Rp125 miliar di hari peluncurannya. Namun, meski minat Outstanding sh.(mn) 14,427

terbatasnya proyek-proyek baru

masyarakat terhadap produk SMRA masih tinggi, Market Cap (IDR bn) 12,335 yang digarap SMRA membuat target marketing sales FY18 masih akan sulit tercapai.

  Market Cap (USD mn) 856 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  19.60 Fokus Menggarap Segmen Pendapatan Berulang Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  12.99 Memasuki tahun politik, kinerja SMRA masih akan ditopang oleh peluncuran proyek-

proyek baru bagi segmen menengah, yang akan lebih difokuskan pada segmen Foreign Ownership 99.9%

rumah tapak. SMRA juga akan meluncurkan dua klaster baru di Srimaya Residence, namun belum berencana untuk meluncurkan proyek residensial menengah-bawah

  Property lainnnya. Selain itu, SMRA juga menggencarkan ekspansi di segmen pendapatan

  Real Estate Owner & Developer berulang (investment property) melalui dua proyek hotel di Serpong dan Bandung

  Bloomberg SMRA IJ serta pusat perbelanjaan, Summarecon Mal Bandung. Reuters SMRA.JK

  Target Harga Rp960 Share Price Performance

  Kami menggunakan estimasi discount to RNAV sebesar 75,6% (rata-rata dua tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Saat ini, saham SMRA diperdagangkan dengan discount to RNAV 2018F sebesar 78%.

  Summarecon Agung Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Revenues 5,641 5,806 5,985 6,276

  Revenues growth 4.5% 2.9% 3.1% 4.9%

  EBITDA 1,877 2,197 1,893 1,976 Net Profit 362 519 389 363 EPS (IDR)

  25

  36

  27

  25 EPS growth 16.2% 43.2%

• -25.1% -6.7%

  YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  BVPS (IDR) 579 614 625 653

  Abs. Ret. -9.5% 34.6% 40.2%

• 2.3%

  EBITDA margin 33.3% 37.8% 31.6% 31.5%

  Rel. Ret. -6.0% 31.1% 34.0% -3.9%

  NPM 6.4% 8.9% 6.5% 5.8% ROE 4.4% 6.0% 4.3% 3.9% ROA 1.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% ROIC 9.8% 10.6% 8.7% 9.0% P/E 37.7x 23.8x 31.7x 34.0x P/BV 1.6x 1.4x 1.4x 1.3x

Michael Tjahjadi

  EV/EBITDA 10.3x 8.8x 10.5x 10.0x

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:114

  DPS (IDR)

  5.0

  5.0

  5.0

  5.0

  michael@nhsec.co.id Dividend yield 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

  Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

  Summarecon Agung www.nhsec.co.id

  Source: Company, NHKS Research SMRA Quarterly Marketing Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS Research SMRA Quarterly Revenue (IDR bn) | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Marketing Sales Breakdown | Jun 2018 - Sept 2018 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Margin Ratios | 3Q17 - 3Q18 Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights SMRA Revenue Breakdown | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research Revenue Breakdown | 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Summarecon Agung www.nhsec.co.id

  3Q18 review (IDR bn)

  3Q18

  3Q17

  4Q17

  1Q18

  2Q18

  4Q18E Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise

  Revenues 1,309 1,647 1,199 1,468 1,356 1,387 3.6% -7.6% -2.2% 1,783

• -5.0% 1.9% 990

  Gross Profit 568 844 538 705 669 657 17.8%

  Gross Margin 43.4% 51.2% 44.9% 48.0% 49.4% 47.4% 6.0% 2.0% 55.5%

  1.4% EBIT 296 504 291 343 529 365 78.6% 54.0% 44.8% 689

  EBIT Margin 22.6% 30.6% 24.3% 23.4% 39.0% 26.3% 16.4% 15.6% 12.7% 38.6%

  EBITDA 373 613 367 420 602 442 61.3% 43.3% 36.3% 792

  EBITDA Margin 28.5% 37.2% 30.7% 28.6% 44.4% 31.9% 15.9% 15.8% 12.5% 44.4%

Net Profit 71 243 42 37 125 114 76.9% 242.1% 10.0% 315

  Net Margin 5.4% 14.7% 3.5% 2.5% 9.2% 8.2% 3.8% 6.7% 1.0% 17.7% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Earnings revision (IDR bn) 2018E 2019F 2020F

  5,806 5,985 6,276

• Revised Revenues
>Previous 5,784 5,979 6> -Change 0.4% 0.1% 0.2%

  2,902 2,869 2,991

• Revised Gross Profit
• Previous 2,836 2,866 2,985
• Change 2.3% 0.1% 0.2%
• Revised 50.0% 47.9% 47.7% Gross Margin

  49.0% 47.9% 47.7%

• Previous EBIT -Revised 1,865 1,570 1> -Previous 1,574 1,569 1
• Change 18.5% 0.1% 0.2%

  32.1% 26.2% 26.2%

  EBIT Margin -Revised

• Previous 27.2% 26.2% 26.2% EBITDA -Revised 2,197 1,893 1> -Previous 1,909 1,893 1
• Change 15.1% 0.0% 0.1%

  37.8% 31.6% 31.5%

  EBITDA Margin -Revised

• Previous 33.0% 31.7% 31.5%
• Revised

  Net Profit 519 389 363

• -Previous 451 393 384
• -Change 15.1% -1.1% -5.5%
• Revised 8.9% 6.5% 5.8% Net Margin

  7.8% 6.6% 6.1%

• Previous

  Source: NHKS research

• 9.74%

  29.9% 8.43% 8.7x 0.7x

  Megaworld Corp 2,932 6,212 914 270 14.20% 29.6% 9.31% 11.0x 1.0x

  Philippines

  Land & Houses PUB Co Ltd 3,722 3,362 1,026 314 -3.30% 30.6% 21.30% 11.9x 2.5x WHA Corp PCL 1,847 2,260 308 98 -20.37% 31.7% 13.51% 19.8x 2.6x

  Thailand

  26.3% 3.59% 14.3x 0.5x

  IOI Properties Group Bhd 2,253 8,110 616 162

  21.5% 8.44% 9.7x 0.7x

  SP Setia Bhd 2,134 6,826 999 215

  Malaysia

  Capitaland Ltd 9,740 45,972 3,864 1,157

  Singapore

  BSDE 1,756 3,382 669 231 9.43% 34.6% 13.2% 7.8x 1.0x CTRA 1,353 2,333 488 65 -6.35% 13.4% 6.8% 21.5x 1.4x PWON 2,056 1,719 471 160 25.37% 34.1% 20.6% 13.3x 2.5x SMRA 856 1,594 408 32 19.40% 7.9% 6.9% 27.6x 1.9x

• 27.49%

  Source: Bloomberg Company Market Cap (USD mn) Asset (USD mn) Revenue LTM (USD mn) Net Profit LTM (USD mn) Net Profit Growth LTM Net Margin ROE LTM P/E LTM P/BV Indonesia

  Sektor properti di Indonesia dan Filipina menjadi yang paling bersaing di antara negara ASEAN. Pengembang-pengembang properti di negara tersebut mencatatkan gross margin lebih baik walaupun mempunyai total aset lebih rendah daripada negara- negara lainnya.

  Indonesia merupakan negara terluas yang memiliki persediaan tanah dan jumlah penduduk terbanyak di ASEAN. Hal tersebut menjadikan Indonesia sebagai lokasi menguntungkan bagi bisnis pengembang properti. Pengembang properti Indonesia memiliki persediaan tanah lebih besar daripada pengembang di negara ASEAN. Seperti BKSL, mempunyai persediaan lahan 14.666 hektar dan BSDE 3.966 hektar.

  Industri Pengembang Properti Indonesia di ASEAN

  SMRA mulai beroperasi pada 1975 dengan mengembangkan lahan seluas 10 hektare di Kelapa Gading, Jakarta Utara. Kini, portofolio SMRA mencakup pengembangan kawasan terpadu di Kelapa Gading, Serpong, Bekasi, Bandung, dan Karawang. Pada 2H18, SMRA juga akan mengembangkan bisnisnya ke kota Makassar melalui proyek Summarecon Mutiara Makassar. Selain segmen pengembangan properti, pendapatan SMRA juga bersumber dari segmen investasi dan manajemen properti serta segmen rekreasi dan hospitality. SMRA juga mengembangkan divisi hospitality di Bali melalui proyek Movenpick Resort & Spa dan Samasta Lifestyle Village.

  ASEAN Property Developer SMRA merupakan salah satu perusahaan pengembang properti di Indonesia, dikenal melalui pengembangan kota terpadunya.

  Summarecon Agung www.nhsec.co.id

  Sekilas tentang SMRA

• 33.15%

  Summarecon Agung www.nhsec.co.id

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Discount to NAV band | Last 2 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  04/30/2018 Hold 960 (Dec 2018) 905 1,203 +6.1% -20.2% 05/31/2018 Hold 1,050 (Dec 2018) 985 1,140 +6.6% -7.9%

• 29.3% 10/12/2018 Hold 670 (Dec 2019) 595 948 +12.6% 12/05/2018 Hold 960 (Dec 2019) 855 868 +12.3% +10.6%

  Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg

  Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication

   Buy : Greater than +15%

   Hold : -15% to +15%  Sell : Less than -15%

  Summarecon Agung www.nhsec.co.id

  Summary of Financials

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