PWON Kinerja Spektakuler 20180328 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)

• 4.6%

  53.0% 55.5% 57.5% 57.7%

  Revenue 4,841 5,718 6,515 7,356

  Revenue growth 4.7% 18.1% 13.9% 12.9%

  EBITDA 2,567 3,175 3,748 4,242 Net profit 1,671 1,873 2,347 2,723 EPS (IDR)

  35 39 49 49

  EPS growth 32.4% 12.1% 25.3% 16.0%

  BVPS (IDR) 229 266 313 366 EBITDA margin

  Net Profit Margin

  Target Harga Rp700 Kami menggunakan estimasi discount to RNAV sebesar 56,0% (1 SD di bawah rata-rata 3 tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 16,3x (vs 12,4x saat ini).

  34.5% 32.8% 36.0% 37.0%

  ROE

  16.3% 15.7% 16.9% 16.7%

  ROA

  8.5% 8.5% 9.5% 10.1%

  ROIC 15.0% 15.8% 17.2% 18.0% P/E 16.3x 15.6x 12.4x 12.4x P/BV 2.5x 2.3x 1.9x 1.7x EV/EBITDA 12.6x 10.6x 8.6x 7.3x DPS (IDR)

  4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

  2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

  III, serta Tunjungan Plaza tahap VI untuk memperkuat pendapatan berulang. PWON juga konsisten mempertahankan tingkat okupasi pusat perbelanjaan yang masing-masing melebihi 90%; bahkan, tarif sewa rata- rata perkantoran, dan hotel PWON pun mengalami peningkatan dibandingkan 2016.

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:114 michael@nhsec.co.id

  Pakuwon Jati Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer Company Report | Mar 28, 2018 Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) Kinerja Spektakuler Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 700 Consensus Price (IDR) 734 TP to Consensus Price

  vs. Last Price +15.7% Shares data

  Last Price (IDR) 605 Price date as of Mar 23, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 715 / 540 Free float 30.2% Outstanding sh.(mn) 48,160 Market Cap (IDR bn) 29,137 Market Cap (USD mn) 2,123 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  19.36 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  13.06 Foreign Ownership 14.1%

  Property Real Estate Owner & Developer Bloomberg PWON.IJ Reuters PWON.JK Michael Tjahjadi

  Share Price Performance YTD

  Terus Perkuat Pendapatan Berulang Selain mendorong penjualan kondominium dan perkantoran, PWON juga menambah portofolio pusat perbelanjaan, yakni Pakuwon Mall tahap II &

  1M

  3M

  12M

  Abs. Ret. -11.7% -9.0% -10.4% 0.8%

  Rel. Ret. -9.4% -3.2% -10.2% -10.8%

  Mendekati Keseimbangan Rasio Pendapatan Pada FY2017, PWON mencatatkan pertumbuhan pendapatan 18,1% y-y menjadi Rp5,7 triliun yang melampaui ekspektasi manajemen. PWON juga berhasil mendorong penjualan properti sehingga rasio antara penjualan properti dan pendapatan berulang mencapai 48% : 52%, yang mendekati target 50% : 50%.

  Masih Kuatnya Pertumbuhan Marketing Sales Lokasi proyek properti yang strategis membuat penjualan properti tidak terpengaruh lesunya daya beli segmen menengah ke atas. Penjualan juga ditopang oleh harga jual rata-rata kondominium yang terus naik, terutama di area CBD Jakarta, dan Surabaya. Marketing sales yang tercatat Rp2,5 triliun memang tidak memenuhi target Rp2,7 triliun yang ditetapkan manajemen pada awal 2017. Meskipun demikian, marketing sales tetap tumbuh 10% y-y.

  Dividend yield 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

  Sekilas tentang PWON PWON adalah salah satu perusahaan pengembang properti yang fokus di segmen pusat perbelanjaan, kondominium, perkantoran, dan superblok. Proyek-proyek yang digarap PWON tersebar di dua kota metropolitan terbesar di Indonesia: Jakarta dan Surabaya dengan rasio pendapatan masing-masing 48,4%, dan 51,6%. Proyek-proyek tersebut berada di lokasi yang strategis, dan mengincar segmen menengah-atas.

  Memiliki portfolio beberapa superblok: Kota Kasablanka, dan Gandaria City di Jakarta; Tunjungan City, dan Pakuwon Mal di Surabaya, PWON berhasil menyeimbangkan rasio antaran pendapatan berulang dan pendapatan dari penjualan properti. Selain sedang menggarap beberapa proyek baru, PWON juga masih memiliki persediaan tanah di area superblok untuk rencana ekspansi mendatang. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, PWON juga berekspansi ke segmen kota mandiri melalui proyek Pakuwon City, dan Grand Pakuwon di Surabaya.

  Industri Pengembang Properti Indonesia di ASEAN Indonesia merupakan negara terluas yang memiliki persediaan tanah, dan jumlah penduduk terbanyak di ASEAN. Faktor tersebut menjadikan Indonesia sebagai lokasi yang menguntungkan bagi bisnis pengembang properti. Pengembang properti Indonesia memiliki persediaan tanah yang lebih luas dibandingkan pengembang di negara ASEAN, seperti BKSL yang mempunyai persediaan lahan 14.666 hektar, dan BSDE 3.966 hektar.

  Sektor properti di Indonesia, dan Filipina paling bersaing di antara negara ASEAN. Pengembang-pengembang properti di negara tersebut mencatatkan gross margin yang lebih baik walaupun mempunyai total aset yang lebih rendah di antara negara-negara lainnya.

  ASEAN Real Estate Developer Market Cap Total Asset Sales Gross Operating Net Profit Dividend Company ROE P/E (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Margin Growth Yield

  BSDE 2,468 3,382 56.71% 73.4% 48.9% 173.9% 21.4% 6.9x 0.3% PWON 2,213 1,719 18.10% 58.8% 48.9% 12.1% 15.7% 15.6x 0.7% CTRA 1,535 2,147 10.31% 49% 27.5% 0.6% 8.7% 21.1x 0.4%

• SMRA 951 1,537 4.01% 48% 26.1% 254.0% 6.1% 34.9x 0.6%
• Singapore

  Capitaland Ltd 11,596 45,972 12.23% 40% 47% 30.3% 8.6% 9.8x 2.8%

• Malaysia
• SP Setia Bhd 2,972 6,826 8.82% 33% 22% 5.2% 8.7% 13.2x 5.0%

  IOI Properties Group Bhd 2,278 7,823 38.36% 44% 32% 27.7% 4.7% 10.8x 3.7%

• Thailand

  Land & Houses PUB Co Ltd 4,070 3,362 16.76% 34% 30% 21.4% 21.6% 12.1x 6.6% WHA Corp Ltd 1,823 2,260 46.72% 47% 39% 12.7% 14.0% 17.9x 5.1%

• Philippines

  Megaworld Corp 2,795 5,619 4.84% 59% 39% 11.1% 9.4% 11.7x 1.2% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  Operational Performance Quarterly Revenue (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 4Q17 Marketing Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 4Q17

  Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Annual Revenue | 2014 - 2017 Revenue Breakdown | 4Q17

  Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research

  Land Bank Portofolio | 4Q17 Land Bank Location Area (ha)

  Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta

  6.4 Gandaria City South Jakarta

  1.9 Simatupang South Jakarta

  4.5 Daan Mogot West Jakarta

  11.0 Bekasi Greater Jakarta

  3.2 Tunjungan City Central Surabaya

  3.2 Pakuwon City Township East Surabaya 212.9 Outside Pakuwon City East Surabaya

  21.5 Grand Pakuwon Towship West Surabaya 157.9 Pakuwon Mall West Surabaya

  3.9 Royal Plaza West Surabaya

  1.8 Outside Grand Pakuwon West Surabaya

  6.9 Total Area 435.1 Source: Company

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Discount to NAV band | Last 3 years

  Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research

  Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  03/28/2018 Buy 700 605 734 +15.7% 4.6%

• Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  Closing and Target Price Analyst Coverage Rating

  Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research

  NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%

   Buy : -15% to +15%  Hold : Less than -15%  Sell

  Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET

  

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errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia ^{PWON Summary Last Price (IDR) 605}

^{Target Price (IDR) 700 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Rating: Buy ROE 16.3% 15.7% 16.9% 16.7% ROA 8.5% 8.5% 9.5% 10.1% ROIC 15.0% 15.8% 17.2% 18.0% EBITDA/Equi ty 25.1% 26.7% 26.9% 26.0%}

^{In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 13.0% 14.4% 15.2% 15.7%}

^{Revenue 4,841 5,718 6,515 7,356 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 217 217 217 217}

^{Growth (% y/y) 4.7% 18.1% 13.9% 12.9% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%}

^{Cos t of Revenue (2,088) (2,353) (2,545) (2,831) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 13% 12% 9% 8%}

  Gross Profit ^{2,754 3,364 3,970 4,525 DER 48% 42% 32% 22%}

_{Gross Margin 56.9% 58.8% 60.9% 61.5% Net Gea ri ng 63% 54% 40% 27%}

_{Opera ti ng Expens es (525) (569) (617) (713) LT Debt to Equi ty 41% 39% 31% 21%}

_{EBIT 2,228 2,795 3,353 3,813 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 32% 30% 24% 18%}

_{EBIT Margin 46.0% 48.9% 51.5% 51.8% Equi ty Ra ti o 53% 55% 58% 62%}

_{Depreci a ti on 339 380 395 430 Debt Ra ti o 25% 23% 19% 14%}

_{EBITDA 2,567 3,175 3,748 4,242 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 193% 185% 177% 165%}

EBITDA Margin 53.0% 55.5% 57.5% 57.7% Current Ra ti o 133% 172% 181% 182%

_{Interes t Expens es (202) (294) (304) (272) Qui ck Ra ti o 57% 78% 89% 89%}

_{EBT 1,732 2,072 2,606 3,015 Ca s h Ra ti o 53% 69% 79% 79%}

_{Income Ta x 48 (47) (59) (60) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e 428.3 487.5 547.4 575.2}

_{Mi nori ty Interes t (109) (152) (200) (232) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 100 100 100 100}

_{Net Profit 1,671 1,873 2,347 2,723 Tota l Sha res (mn) 48,160 48,160 48,160 48,160}

_{Growth (% y/y) 32.4% 12.1% 25.3% 16.0% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 565 605 605 605}

Net Profit Margin 34.5% 32.8% 36.0% 37.0% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) ^{27.2 29.1 29.1 29.1} _{In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

_{Ca s h 2,432 3,406 4,312 4,863 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 16.3x 15.6x 12.4x 12.4x}

_{Recei va bl es 186 448 537 630 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 2.5x 2.3x 1.9x 1.7x}

  

Inventori es 2,860 3,741 4,301 4,978 Pri ce/Revenue 5.6x 5.1x 4.5x 4.0x

_{Total Current Assets 6,127 8,428 9,890 11,212 PE/EPS Growth 0.5x 1.3x 0.5x 0.8x}

_{Net Fi xed As s ets 12,164 12,461 13,369 14,410 EV/EBITDA 12.6x 10.6x 8.6x 7.3x}

_{Other Non Current As s ets 2,383 2,470 2,557 2,644 EV/EBIT 14.5x 12.0x 9.6x 8.1x}

_{Total Assets 20,674 23,359 25,816 28,267 EV (IDR bn) 32,354 33,630 32,242 30,818}

_{Pa ya bl es 212 364 326 346 Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 16.9% 13.9% 12.1% 15.0%}

_{ST Debt 769 402 242 155 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 13.8% -9.4% 23.0% 17.7%}

Other Current Li a b. 3,637 4,147 4,900 5,651 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) ^{35 39 49 49} _{LT Debt 4,471 5,026 4,603 3,718 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 35 39 49 49 Other Non Current Li a b. 566 628 691 754 BVPS (IDR) 229 266 313 366}

_{Total Liabilities 9,654 10,567 10,763 10,624 Revenue PS (IDR) 101 119 135 153}

_{Shareholders' Equity 11,020 12,791 15,053 17,643 DPS (IDR) 5 5 5 5} In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E _{Net Income 1,671 1,873 2,347 2,723 DCF (IDR bn)}

_{Deprec & Amorti za ti on 339 380 395 430 NOPAT 2,291 2,731 3,277 3,737}

_{Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l - - 158 - +Depr./Amor. 339 380 395 430}

_{CFO 2,010 2,252 2,900 3,152 -CAPEX (272) (146) (1,303) (1,471)}

_{Ca pex (272) (146) (1,303) (1,471) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. - - 158 -}

_{CFI (1,141) (507) (1,327) (1,496) (Unl evered) FCFF 2,358 2,965 2,527 2,695}

Di vi dends Pa i d (229) (216) (217) (217) WACC

_{Net Borrowi ng (PMT) 395 2,781 (582) (973) Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 12.7% 11.0% 11.1% 11.3%}

_{CFF 165 (119) (667) (1,105) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.5% 8.9% 9.3% 9.4%}

_{Net Changes in Cash 1,034 1,627 906 551 WACC (%) 10.8% 9.2% 9.5% 9.6%}

_{RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 7.2% 8.1% 9.1% 8.7% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 681 894 1,162 1,308}

By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge (IDR bn) 990 979 1,185 1,414

_{Indones i a 85.9 PT Pa kuwon A 69.7 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 6.7 Va ngua rd Group 1.9 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 14,363 16,260 18,219 19,899 Luxembourg 2.3 Bl a ckrock 1.2 ROIC-WACC (%) 5.1% 7.6% 8.5% 9.2% Uni ted Ki ngdom 1.1 TT Interna ti ona l Funds 0.8 EVA (IDR bn) 737 1,234 1,542 1,823}

  CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY _{March 23, 2017 Dec 2018 Analyst: Michael Tjahjadi}