NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN)

  Mempertahankan Ritme Company Report | Nov 15, 2018 Pertumbuhan yang Fantastis pada Net Interest Income

  BBTN mencatatkan pertumbuhan interest income sebesar 16,3% menjadi Rp5,7 triliun.

Buy Net interest income mampu melonjak lebih tinggi yakni sebesar 19,9%

  menjadi Rp2,8 triliun. Namun pertumbuhan yang fantastis ini tidak diikuti oleh

Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 3,050

  

laba bersih yang hanya tumbuh 10,7% menjadi Rp812 miliar. Faktor krusial Consensus Price (IDR) 2,971

  penghambat pertumbuhan laba bersih adalah kenaikan beban provisi menjadi TP to Consensus Price +2.7% Rp449 miliar, jauh dibandingkan periode sebelumnya yang berkisar Rp200 vs. Last Price +35.6% miliar.

  Shares data Stabilnya Pertumbuhan Kredit Last Price (IDR) 2,250

  BBTN masih mampu mempertahankan pertumbuhan kredit 19% pada 3Q18.

  Price date as of Nov 14, 2018

  Kinerja penyaluran kredit ditopang oleh

  segmen KPR bersubsidi yang masih 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 3,890 / 2,010 mampu mempertahankan pertumbuhan 30%. Kini porsi KPR bersubsidi

  Free float (%)

  40.0

  telah melampaui 40% terhadap total kredit yang disalurkan BBTN. Konsistensi

  Outstanding sh.(mn) 10,590

  pertumbuan kredit di kisaran 19%-21% hingga beberapa tahun ke depan akan

  Market Cap (IDR bn) 24,039 menjadi penopang akselerasi pertumbuhan interest income. Market Cap (USD mn) 1,640 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  33.15 Resiko Kenaikan Time Deposit Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  81.77 Resiko bagi BBTN bersumber dari meningkatnya time deposit demi Foreign Ownership 17.9%

  mengakomodasi akselerasi kredit. Pada 3Q18,

  

time deposit melonjak 20% y-y

  menjadi Rp103,7 triliun. Pada 3 kuartal sebelumnya time deposit bergerak stabil

  Finance

  di kisaran Rp96-98 triliun. Namun dampak terhadap peningkatan interest

  Bank

  expenses belum signifikan. Interest expenses tumbuh 13%, masih lebih rendah

  Bloomberg BBTN IJ dari pertumbuhan interest income sebesar 16%. Reuters BBTN.JK

  Target Harga Rp28.825

  Kami menetapkan target harga sebesar Rp3.050 untuk Desember 2019 dengan

  Share Price Performance

  asumsi forward P/B 1,0x (rata-rata 4 tahun). Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2019E sebesar 1,1x Saat ini BBTN diperdagangkan pada P/B 2018E sebesar 1,0x.

  Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Interest Income 19,272 22,629 26,921 32,432

  Interest Income growth 12.4% 17.4% 19.0% 20.5%

  Operating Revenue 10,945 12,947 15,636 18,895 Net profit 3,027 3,498 4,330 5,348 EPS (IDR) 286 330 409 505

  EPS growth 15.6% 15.5% 23.8% 23.5% YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  BVPS (IDR) 2,046 2,315 2,654 3,074

  Abs. Ret. -37.0% -3.8% -11.1% -23.7%

  Net Interest Margin 4.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4%

  Rel. Ret. -29.1% -5.6% -12.6% -21.6%

  Loan/Deposits 100.5% 108.2% 111.3% 114.3% NPL 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% ROE 14.8% 15.1% 16.5% 17.6% ROA 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% P/E 12.5x 6.8x 5.5x 4.5x P/BV 1.7x 1.0x 0.8x 0.7x

Raphon Prima

  P/Op. Revenue 3.5x 1.8x 1.5x 1.3x

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:214

  DPS (IDR) 57 66 82 101

  raphon@nhsec.co.id Dividend yield 1.6% 2.9% 3.6% 4.5% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

  Bank Tabungan Negara www.nhsec.co.id

  Source: Company, NHKS Research Net Profit (IDR bn) | 4Q15 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research Interest Income (IDR bn) | 4Q15 - 3Q18

  Deposit Composition Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Outstanding Loan (IDR bn) | 4Q15 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights Deposit (IDR bn) | 4Q15 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, NIM | 4Q15 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Bank Tabungan Negara www.nhsec.co.id

  3Q18 review (IDR bn)

  3Q18

  3Q17

  4Q17

  1Q18

  2Q18

  4Q18E Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise

  Interest Income 4,868 5,421 5,065 5,171 5,661 5,597 16.3% 9.5% 1.1% 6,732 Interest Expense (2,561) (2,549) (2,734) (2,818) (2,894) (3,127) 13.0% 2.7% -7.5% (3,164)

  3,568 Net Interest Income 2,307 2,872 2,332 2,354 2,767 2,469 19.9% 17.6% 12.0%

  4,069 Operating Rev. 2,725 3,275 2,726 2,932 3,220 2,917 18.2% 9.8% 10.4%

  2,056 PPOP 1,174 1,592 1,063 1,159 1,450 1,174 23.5% 25.0% 23.5%

  (519) Loan Loss Provision (228) (287) (195) (223) (449) (205) 97.0% 101.7% 118.7%

  

Net Profit 734 1,022 684 739 812 750 10.7% 9.9% 8.3% 1,262

Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Earnings revision (IDR bn) 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Interest Income Revised 22,629 26,921 32,432 Previous 23,077 27,077 32,432

• -1.9% -0.6% 0.0%

  Change Interest Expenses Revised (11,609) (13,613) (16,349)

  Previous (12,556) (14,693) (16,349)

• -7.5% -7.4% 0.0%

  Change Net Interest Income Revised 11,020 13,308 16,083

  Previous 10,521 12,384 16,083 Change 4.7% 7.5% 0.0%

  Operating Revenue Revised 12,947 15,636 18,895 Previous 12,414 14,612 18,895

  4.3% 7.0% 0.0%

  Change Pre-Provisioning OP Revised 5,728 6,918 8,360

  Previous 5,153 6,065 8,360

  11.2% 14.1% 0.0%

  Change Loan Loss Provision Revised (1,386) (1,431) (1,598)

  Previous (882) (923) (1,598) Change 57.2% 55.0% 0.0%

  Net Profit Revised 3,498 4,330 5,348

  Previous 3,360 4,025 5,348

  4.1% 7.6% 0.0%

  Change

  Source: NHKS research

BBTN at A Glance ASEAN Banking Sector

  14,233 92,841

  CIMB 12,791 124,711 4,330 1,346

  31.7% 2.5% 11.4% 9.4x 1.1x Malayan Banking

  24,719 188,433 4,326

  1,962 6.3% 1.8% 11.2% 12.5x 1.4x Hong Leong 5,180 56,880

  1,204 468 26.6% 1.6% 11.1% 11.4x 1.2x

  Thailand

  Bangkok Bank 12,292 94,446 3,100

  1,105 9.0% 2.4% 9.0% 11.3x 1.0x Siam Commercial

  1,305 1,305

  21.1% 1.7% 11.7% 10.2x 1.1x

  64,128 754 754 7.5% 3.8% 10.7% 12.0x 1.2x

  Philippine

  BDO Unibank 9,795 53,371 2,083 561

  7.2% 4.1% 9.7% 18.1x 1.7x Metropolitan Bank

  5,272 41,612 1,398

  384 6.5% 3.8% 8.3% 11.2x 1.0x

  Philippine Island Bank 7,221 38,084 1,242

  423 3.2% 3.6% 10.5% 16.1x 1.5x

  Malaysia

  340,370 7,366 3,423

  Bank Tabungan Negara www.nhsec.co.id

  1,701 40.3% 5.3% 14.2% 14.4x 2.0x BBCA

  BBTN merupakan bank milik negara yang memiliki fokus bisnis penyaluran kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR). BBTN pada 3Q18 menyalurkan KPR sebesar Rp163,6 triliun atau 74% dari total penyaluran kredit. Layanan KPR BBTN menyasar pembiayaan perumahan bagi golongan kelas menengah dan bawah. BBTN juga merupakan mitra utama pemerintah dalam menyelenggarakan program KPR subsidi. KPR subsidi merupakan program pemerintah dalam mendukung visi penyediaan 1 juta rumah. Program ini menyasar masyarakat Indonesia dengan penghasilan rendah yakni di bawah Rp4 juta per bulan.

  Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN

  Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN karena menawarkan suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan suku bunga yang ditawarkan bank lain di ASEAN. Hal ini merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri perbankan di Indonesia. Mayoritas bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas 5% meskipun sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga kredit. Keunggulan NIM ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi.

  Source: Bloomberg Company Market Cap (USD mn) Asset (USD mn) Int. Income LTM (USD mn) Net Profit LTM (USD mn) Net Profit Growth LTM Net Margin ROE LTM P/E LTM P/BV

  BBTN 1,640 19,235 1,483 234 8.5% 4.3% 14.9% 7.4x 1.0x BBRI 28,611 82,886

  7,056 2,298 15.2% 7.5% 19.3% 13.0x 2.4x

  BMRI 23,321

  82,772 5,229

  40,663 52,203

  OCBC 34,335

  3,385 1,796 11.9% 6.0% 18.4% 23.9x 4.2x

  BBNI 10,369

  19,235 1,483

  1,071 8.1% 5.3% 15.1% 10.2x 1.5x

  Singapore

  DBS 43,046 387,334 6,811

  4,058 33.3% 1.9% 11.6% 10.9x 1.2x UOB 29,401 268,287

  7,275 2,938 20.6% 1.9% 11.7% 10.3x 1.2x

• 9.6% 3.3% 11.6% 11.1x 1.3x Bank of Ayudhya 8,993

  Bank Tabungan Negara www.nhsec.co.id

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/B band | Last 4 years Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  03/08/2018 Hold 3,790 (Dec 2018) 3,770 3,825 +0.5% -0.9% 08/09/2018 Buy 3,280 (Dec 2018) 2,620 3,311 +25.2% -0.9% 11/15/2018 Buy 3,050 (Dec 2019) 2,250 2,971 +35.6% +2.7%

  Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg

  Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication

   Buy : Greater than +15%

   Hold : -15% to +15%

   Sell : Less than -15%

  Bank Tabungan Negara www.nhsec.co.id

  Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

  

This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas

Indonesia. This report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances

is it considered as a selling offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors.

Although the information here is obtained from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas

Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees, and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action,

losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence,

inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia