Update Nino 061210 EN

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-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 J u ly 2 0 0 8 S e p N o v J a n 2 0 0 9 M a r M a y J u ly S e p N o v J a n 2 0 1 0 M a r M e i J u l S e p N o v J a n 2 0 1 1 M a r M e i

Current B M K G BMKG

NCEP/NOAA

BoM/POAMA

Jamstec

moderat e La Nina (-1.8) moderat e La

Nina (-1.05) moderat e La

Nina (-1.2)

Moderat e La Nina (-1.84) Strong

La Nina (-2.3) Strong La Nina (--2.35) Moderat e La Nina (-1.8)

LA NINA PREDICTIONS FROM 3 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND BM KG

(

UPDATED DECEM BER 6, 2010

)

Moderat e La Nina (-1.6) Strong La Nina (-2.1) Moderate La Nina (-1.6) Normal condition (-0.4)


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Prediksi La Nina:

M oderate – Strong

1.

NCEP/ NOAA (USA)

Dec10 M oderate La Nina

Jan-M ay11 Strong La Nina

2.

Jamstec (Japan)

Dec10-Feb11 Strong La Nina

M ar-M ay11 M oderate La Nina

3.

BoM (Australia)

Dec10-Jan11 M oderate La Nina

Feb-M ay11  W eak La Nina

4.

BM KG (Indonesia)

Dec10-M ar11 M oderateLa Nina

Prediksi La Nina:

M oderate – Strong

1.

NCEP/ NOAA (USA)

Dec10 M oderate La Nina

Jan-M ay11 Strong La Nina

2.

Jamstec (Japan)

Dec10-Feb11 StrongLa Nina

M ar-M ay11 M oderate La Nina

3.

BoM (Australia)

Dec10-Jan11 M oderate La NinaFeb-M ay11  W eakLa Nina

4.

BM KG (Indonesia)

Dec10-M ar11 M oderateLa Nina

N ORM AL

M oderate El Nino

Weak El Nino

Weak La Nina

M oderate La Nina

Strong La Nina

BMKG

Institusi Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 NCEP/NOAA -1.6 -2.1 -2.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.4 Jamstec -2.35 -2.2 -2.05 -1.8 -1.65 -1.55 BoM -1.2 -1.05 -0.95 -0.9 -0.75 -0.6 BMKG -1.84 -1.80 -1.79 -1.68 -1.51 -1.38

Strong El Nino

Wat er Vapor m ass flow s from Pacific OceanIndonesia

Wat er Vapor m ass flow s from Indonesia Pacific Ocean

Conclusion:

W ater Vapor mass flow s from Pacific Ocean

Indonesia

(Adding the precipitation in most of Indonesian region)

LA NINA PREDICTIONS FROM 3 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND BM KG

(UPDATED DECEM BER 6, 2010)


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WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean

SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

DMI = Dipole Mode Index

The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure Anomaly

and Dipole M ode

Anomaly Indonesia’s SST : +1.06oC

Nino3,4 : -1.23oC


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WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean

SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

DMI = Dipole Mode Index

The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure

Indonesia’s SST : 29.930Celcius


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N ORM AL

D M ( + )

K uat

D M ( -)

K uat

BMKG

Prediction of IOD Index:

Institusi Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 BoM -0.13 0 0.11 0.10 -0.12 -0.24 BMKG -0.12 -0.1 -0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1

PREDICTIONS OF DIPOLE M ODE INDEX

(UPDATED DECEM BER 6, 2010)

Wat er Vapor mass from Indonesia t o East Africa

Wat er Vapor mass from East Africa t o Indonesia

• DM Index St andard: -0.40C s/ d +0,4 0C

• Predict ion (Aust ralia – BM KG): Dec 2010:

DM (-) Wat er Vapor mass from Indian Ocean t o w est ern part of Indonesia

Conclusion

: Adding t he

precipit at ion in West ern part


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PERIODE La NINA

SST Anomalies (0 C) Central Pacific

(El Nino/ La Nina)

Indonesian SST Indian Ocean (Dipole Mode) M AM 1 9 5 4 – DJ F 1 9 5 7 -2 .0 -0 .4 -0 .1

ASO 1 9 6 2 – DJ F 1 9 6 3 -0 .7 0 .1 0

M AM 1 9 6 4 – DJ F 1 9 6 5 -1 .2 -0 .5 0 .8 J J A 1 9 7 0 – DJ F 1 9 7 2 -1 .3 0 .1 0 .4

AM J 1 9 7 3 – AM J 1 9 7 6 -2 .1 0 .5 0 .5

SON 1 9 8 4 – ASO 1 9 8 5 -1 .1 0 -0 .4 AM J 1 9 8 8 – AM J 1 9 8 9 -1 .9 0 .1 -0 .1

ASO 1 9 9 5 – FM A 1 9 9 6 -0 .7 0 .2 0

J J A 1 9 9 8 – M J J 2 0 0 0 -1 .6 0 .4 -0 .5 ASO 2 0 0 7 – AM J 2 0 0 8 -1 .4 0 .2 -0 .1

N ove m be r 2 0 1 0 De c e m be r 4 2 0 1 0

-1 .4 2 -1 .2 3

+1 .0 2 (w a rm ) +1 .0 6

-0 .0 4 -0 .4 6

Source : NOAA

Weak EN/LN±0.5 – 1.00C Moderate EN/LN±1.0 – 2.00C

Strong EN/LN > ±2.00C

Level of EN/LN & DM

Dipole Mode (DM) Normal ±0.40


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SPATIAL ANOM ALY SST PREDICTIONS From NCEP (USA)

(

UPDATED DECEM BER 6 2010

)

Sea Surface Temperature

Anomaly Predictions around

Central Pacific on December

2010 shows cold

conditions and continue

until May 2011.

Meanwhile, Sea Surface

Temperature Anomaly

Predictions around

Indonesia’s archipelago still

in warm conditions until

February 2011 and start

colder on March 2011.


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Elnino/ La Nina Predictions from BM KG and International Institutions :

Nino34 index predict ed as strong La Nina condition on Decem ber 2010 according by Jam st ec (Japan), m eanw hile NCEP (USA), POAM A (Aust ralia), dan BM KG predict ed as M oderate La Nina. Generally, predict ions of Nino34 indices on Novem ber 2010 unt il April 2011 show s m oderat e t o st rong La Nina.

Impacts of El Nino/ La Nina di Indonesia :

Im pact s of El Ñino/ La Nina are very influenced by t he Sea surface t em perat ure around Indonesia’s M arit im e Cont inent

December 2010 :

Sea surface t emperat ure anomaly over Nino34 Region predict ed as

negat ive value (show s t he moderat e La Nina condit ion),w hile t he sea

surface t em perat ure around Indonesia’s archipelago st ill w arm. This

condit ion gave indicat ion t hat almost of Indonesian region relat ive w ill be

w et t er in t he 2010/ 2011 w et season compared in normal years.

CONCLUSION


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Surface Ocean Nino34


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Summarized by POAMA

Lanina Predict ions from

Int ernat ional Inst it ut ions

All of intenational institutions

predicted the development

of La Nina until February

2011 were on the cool to

neutral conditions,


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Sumber IRI


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Source IRI

Predict ion Table of Elnino/ La Nina

Predictions of La

Nina condition will

be dominant until

April 2011. After

that will be on


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Summary

Predict ions of La Nina phenom enon w ill be

dominant unt il M arch-April 2011 and aft er t hat

w ill be on Neut ral condit ions

Predict ions of Dipole M ode phenom enon w ill be

on negat ive value on next several m ont h.

Predict ions of Indonesian SST w ould be st ill on


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Surface Ocean Nino34


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Summarized by POAMA

Lanina Predict ions from Int ernat ional Inst it ut ions

All of intenational institutions predicted the development of La Nina until February 2011 were on the cool to neutral conditions,


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Sumber IRI


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Source IRI

Predict ion Table of Elnino/ La Nina

Predictions of La

Nina condition will

be dominant until April 2011. After that will be on


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Summary

Predict ions of La Nina phenom enon w ill be

dominant unt il M arch-April 2011 and aft er t hat w ill be on Neut ral condit ions

Predict ions of Dipole M ode phenom enon w ill be on negat ive value on next several m ont h.

Predict ions of Indonesian SST w ould be st ill on w arm condit ions unt il February 2011.