Update Nino 030111 EN

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Ju ly 2 0 0 8 Se p N o

v Jan ₂

0

0

9

M

ar May July Sep

N

o

v Jan ₂

0

1

0

M

ar Me

i

Ju

l Sep

N

o

v Jan 2

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Current BM KG

BMKG NCEP/NOAA _BoM/POAMA Jamstec moderate La Nina (-1.76) Moderate La Nina (-1.5) Moderate La Nina (-1.95) Moderate La Nina (-1.84) Strong La Nina (-2.15) La Nina Kuat (--2.05) Neutral condition (-0.25) La Nina Moderate (-1.8) Moderate La Nina (-1.9) Moderate La Nina (-1.2)

LA NINA PREDICTIONS FROM 3 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND BM KG

La Nina Prediction: M oderate – Strong 1. NCEP/ NOAA (USA)

 Jan11 M oderate La Nina

 Feb-M ay11 Strong La Nina

 Jun11  M oderate La Nina 2. Jamstec (Japan)

 Jan-Feb11 Strong La Nina

 M ar-Jun11 M oderate La Nina 3. BoM (Australia)

 Jan-M ar11 M oderate La ina

 Apr-M ei11 W eak La Nina

 Jun11 Neutral condition 4. BM KG (Indonesia)

 Jan-Jun11  M oderate La Nina La Nina Prediction:

M oderate – Strong

1. NCEP/ NOAA (USA)

 Jan11 M oderate La Nina

 Feb-M ay11 Strong La Nina

 Jun11  M oderate La Nina

2. Jamstec (Japan)

 Jan-Feb11 Strong La Nina  M ar-Jun11 M oderate La Nina 3. BoM (Australia)

 Jan-M ar11 M oderate La ina

 Apr-M ei11 W eak La Nina

 Jun11 Neutral condition 4. BM KG (Indonesia)

 Jan-Jun11  M oderate La Nina

N ORM AL Strong El Nino

Moderate El Nino

Weak El Nino

Weak La Nina

Moderate La Nina

Strong La Nina

BMKG -1.03 -1.28 -1.45 -1.65 -1.76 -1.84 BMKG -0.4 -0.65 -0.8 -1.05 -1.2 -1.5 BoM -1.2 -1.45 -1.6 -1.8 -2 -2.05 Jamstec -1.75 -2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.15 -1.9 NCEP/NOAA Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Institusi

LA NINA PREDICTIONS FROM 3 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND BM KG (UPDATED JANUARY 3, 2011)

Water Vapor mass flows from Indonesia Pacific Ocean

Water Vapor mass flows from Pacific OceanIndonesia

Conclusion:

W ater Vapor mass flow s from Pacific OceanIndonesia

(Adding the precipitation in most of Indonesian region)

WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean

SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean DMI = Dipole Mode Index

The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure Anomaly

and Dipole M ode

Anomaly Indonesia’s SST : +0.17o_C

Nino3,4 : -1.15o_C

WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean

SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean DMI = Dipole Mode Index

The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure

Indonesia’s SST : 28.830_Celcius

-1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Jun

-09 09Jul- Aug_-09 Sep_-09 Oct-09 Nov-0_{9 9}Dec-0 Jan_-10 Feb_-10 Mar-1₀ Apr-10

Ma

y-1

0 Jun-10 Jul-10

Ag

s-1

0 Sep-10

Oc

t-10 v-1₀No Dec-1₀ Jan_-11 Feb_{-11 1}Mar-1 Apr-1₁ Ma_y-11 Jun_-11

In

de

ks

IO

D

Past Analysis BoM BMKG

N ORM AL

D M ( + )

Str ong

D M ( -)

Str ong

BMKG

Conclusion

:

Predictions of Dipole M ode Index on next several months

in neutral condition, not affect ing significantly to rainfall in west ern part of

Indonesia -0.12 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 -0.05 BMKG -0.04 -0.04 0.09 0.26 0.30 0.10 BoM Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Institusi

Predictions of IOD index:

PREDICTIONS OF DIPOLE M ODE INDEX (UPDATED JANUARY 3, 2011)

Water Vapor mass from Indonesia to East Africa

Water Vapor mass from East Africa to Indonesia

PERIOD of La NINA

SST Anomalies (0 _C)

Central Pacific (El Nino/ La

Nina)

Indonesian SST Indian Ocean (Dipole Mode)

M AM 1 9 5 4 – DJ F 1 9 5 7 -2 .0 -0 .4 -0 .1

ASO 1 9 6 2 – DJ F 1 9 6 3 -0 .7 0 .1 0

M AM 1 9 6 4 – DJ F 1 9 6 5 -1 .2 -0 .5 0 .8 J J A 1 9 7 0 – DJ F 1 9 7 2 -1 .3 0 .1 0 .4

AM J 1 9 7 3 – AM J 1 9 7 6 -2 .1 0 .5 0 .5

SON 1 9 8 4 – ASO 1 9 8 5 -1 .1 0 -0 .4 AM J 1 9 8 8 – AM J 1 9 8 9 -1 .9 0 .1 -0 .1

ASO 1 9 9 5 – FM A 1 9 9 6 -0 .7 0 .2 0

J J A 1 9 9 8 – M J J 2 0 0 0 -1 .6 0 .4 -0 .5 ASO 2 0 0 7 – AM J 2 0 0 8 -1 .4 0 .2 -0 .1

De c e m be r 2 0 1 0

0 1 ja nua ry 2 0 1 1

-1 .6 5 -1 .1 5

+0 .4 9 +0 .1 7

-0 .1 8 -0 .6 6

Source : NOAA

Weak EN/LN±0.5 – 1.00_C Moderate EN/LN±1.0 – 2.00_C

Strong EN/LN > ±2.00_C

Level of EN/LN & DM

Dipole Mode (DM) Normal ±0.40

SPATIAL ANOM ALY SST PREDICTIONS From NCEP (USA)

(

UPDATED JANUARY 3, 2011

)

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Predictions around Central Pacific on January

2011 shows cold

conditions and continue until June 2011.

Meanwhile, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Predictions around

Indonesia’s archipelago still in warm conditions until February 2011 and start colder on March 2011.

 Elnino/ La Nina Predictions from BM KG and International Institutions :

 Nino34 index predicted as strong La Nina condition on January 2011 according by Jamstec (Japan),

meanwhile NCEP (USA), POAM A (Australia), dan BM KG predicted as M oderate La Nina. Generally,

predictions of Nino34 indices on January until June 2011 shows moderate t o strong La Nina.  Impacts of El Nino/ La Nina di Indonesia :

Impacts of El Ñino/ La Nina are very influenced by the Sea surface t emperature around Indonesia’s M aritime Continent

January 2011 : Sea surface t emperature anomaly over Nino34 Region predict ed as negative value (shows the moderate La Nina condition),while t he sea surface temperat ure around Indonesia’s archipelago still warm. This

condit ion gave indication that almost of Indonesian region relative will be wetter in the 2010/ 2011 w et season compared in normal years.

CONCLUSION

Surface Ocean Nino34

Summarized by POAMA

Lanina Predictions from

International Instit utions

All of intenational institutions predicted the development of La Nina until March 2011 were on the cool to neutral conditions,

Source: IRI

Source : IRI

Prediction Table of Elnino/ La Nina

Predictions of

La

Nina

condition will

be dominant until

April 2011

.

After

that will be on

Summary

•

Predictions of La Nina phenomenon will be

dominant until M arch-April 2011 and after that

will be on Neutral conditions

•

Predictions of Dipole M ode phenomenon will be

on negative value on next several month.

•

Predictions of Indonesian SST would be still on

warm conditions until February 2011.

Surface Ocean Nino34

Summarized by POAMA

Lanina Predictions from International Instit utions

All of intenational institutions

predicted the development of La Nina until March 2011 were on the cool to neutral conditions,

Source: IRI

Source : IRI

Prediction Table of Elnino/ La Nina

Predictions of La Nina condition will

be dominant until April 2011. After

that will be on

Summary

•

Predictions of La Nina phenomenon will be

dominant until M arch-April 2011 and after that will be on Neutral conditions

•

Predictions of Dipole M ode phenomenon will be

on negative value on next several month.

•

Predictions of Indonesian SST would be still on