PAX CHIMERICA Geopolitik Makroekonomi Gl
PAX CHIM ERICA
Geopolitik M akroekonomi Global Kontemporer
(melampaui “Kebangkitan Tiongkok” dan “Kemunduran Amerika”)
Hizkia Yosie Polimpung
Purusha Research Cooperat ive
Diskusi di Pusat Kajian Wilayah Amerika, Universit as Indonesia
17 Desember 2014
Dua Wacana
• Kebangkitan Tongkok vs Kemunduran Amerika
• Benar. Hanya saja t idak semudah it u.
• Kedua wacana harus dilihat sebagai sat u kesat uan –
sebagai corak baru tatanan ekonomi polit ik
internasional.
• Tatanan baru PAX CHIM ERICA
Skema Present asi
• Krisis Finansial AS /(berdampak) Global
• Dimensi Global Pert umbuhan Ekonomi AS
– Ekonomi sebagai Sist em Akumulasi Profit
– Ekonomi Riil dan Finansial
• Lahirnya CHIMERICA dan Peran Tiongkok
• Tat a-Dunia Pasca-CHIMERICA (jika dunia masih ada)
Argumen Ut ama
Krisis f inansial global t elah mengubah secara fundament al
paradigm dan corak pengorganisasian ekonomi global:
1) Dengan mereka-ulang st at us dan posisi ekonomi
f inansial, ekonomi riil dan hubungan di ant ara
keduanya.
2) Dengan mencipt akan dua jangkar ekonomi baru
penopang t at a-dunia, yait u Tiongkok dan Amerika
Dampak Krisis Finansial AS
• Pandangan Umum:
–
–
–
–
Dampak domest ik, sosio-ekonomi; Occupy Wall St reet
Efek penularan (cont agion ef fect )
Pemerint ahan Global: G-Zero (Roubini, 2011)
Negara berkembang (EM DC, emerging market s & developing
count ries)
– Dampak negat ive ke ekonomi riil
Hanya ini? Apakah ada dampak sist emik global?
Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang
• Defisit neraca t ransaksi berjalan (current account
balance) AS
600
420.569
353.183
400
243.257237.81
231.843
223.743
193.139
136.097
132.378
200
-11.903 7.657 1.619 7.242
36.962 31.472
15.669 20.519 17.405
35.422 43.052
68.941
China
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-121.612 -113.571 -124.773
-140.72
India
-215.066
-400
Japan
-300.774
-416.32
-381.639
-396.691
Unit ed St at es
-518.663
-629.329
-681.343
-800
-713.39
-739.795
-798.478
-1000
Russia
-449.472 -457.726 -440.417 -451.458
-457.797
-600
Fr ance
Germany
-84.816
-200
Brazil
Grafik 1. Neraca Transaksi Berjalan
Negara-Negara M aju (Pilihan)
Sumber: World Economic Out look
Dat abase, IM F (Diolah)
Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang (2)
• Primasi sect or finansial di AS
Grafik 2. Tot al Hut ang Rumah-Tangga AS dan komposisinya
(Sumber: Quart erly Report in Household Debt and Credit , 2010 Q4,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Feb. 2011)
Grafik 3. Pengeluaran Konsumsi AS dan Kont ribusi Konsumsi
Rumah-Tangga (dlm. Triliun Dolar)
(Sumber: World Development Indicat or, World Bank,
diolah.)
Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang (3)
350,000
300,000
250,000
Low est fifth
200,000
Second fifth
Third fifth
150,000
Fourth fifth
Highest fift h
Top 5 percent
100,000
50,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
Grafik 4. Ket impangan Pemasukan di AS (dlm US$ 2010)
(Sumber: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Populat ion Survey, Annual
Social and Economic Supplement s, diolah)
Grafik 5. Hut ang rumah t angga dan harga rumah di
AS , 1995–2012
(Sumber: UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report ,
2013)
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global
• Dominasi sekt or finansial sw ast a t erhadap ekonomi
AS
Grafik 7. Kompisisi Hut ang AS, 1995–2012 (%PDB)
(Source: UNCTAD, Trade and Development
Report , 2013)
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (2)
•
Co/. Geliat pasar derivat ive (fut ures, forw ard [ OTC] , opt ions)
Forwards
Fut ures
Opt ions
PDB Dunia
Forwards
Fut ures
Turnover Fut ures
1586
700
648
604
596
600
1600
633
1524
1381
1400
1261
1160
1127
1200
500
1006
414
1000
840
400
800
298
625
251
596
600
197
547
604
601
648
633
414
200
100
Turnover Opt ions
1547
601
547
300
Opt ions
400
38
42
46
50
56
61
58
64
70
197
72
251
298
200
0
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Grafik 8 . Dominasi Sekt or Finansial dalam Ekonomi Global (dlm US$ t riliun)
(Sumber: BIS St at ist ics & Dat abank Worldbank, diolah)
2012
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Grafik 9. Volume Pasar Derivat if Global (dlm US$ t riliun)
(Sumber: BIS St at ist ics, diolah)
2010
2011
2012
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (3)
• Lima (5) Bank Invest asi Terbesar AS saat krisis:
– JP Morgan Chase Bank, Bank of America, Cit ibank, Wachovia Bank dan
HSBC Bank (Laporan Office of t he Compt roller of t he Currency, AS,
2008)
– Memiliki 95%dari t ot al derivat if AS (Q1, 2008)
– Kont rak : aset
• JP Morgan Chase US$ 87 t riliun : US$ 1,7 t riliun
• Bank of America US$ 38 t riliun : US$ 1,5 t riliun
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (4)
•
Sement ara it u, di belahan dunia lain …
–
Pert umbuhan berbasis nir-hut ang di EM DC
Rise of the
south?
Grafik 11. Evolusi Ekspor Negara Berkembang berdasarkan
produknya, 1995–2012 (Angka Index, 1995 = 100)
(Source: UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report , 2013 )
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (5)
•
AS membut uhkan negara-negara berkembang di Selat an, dan t erut ama Cina,
unt uk “ menambal” defisit neraca t ransaksi berjalannya.
Cina (E)
Cina (I)
AS (E)
AS (I)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Grafik 12. Tot al Volume Ekspor-Impor Cina
dan AS (dlm. Jut a Dolar)
(Sumber: WTO St at ist ics Dat abase, diolah)
Anat omi Akumulasi Profit
• Krisis dalam salah sat u roda akan membuat
Akumulasi Spasial
Pra-Kapital
Akumulasi Riil
roda lain t erganggu
• Pemulihan Krisis ekonomi dengan demikian
selalu mensyarat kan pembenahan dan
pembaharuan pada fungsi akumulasi
keunt ungan ini.
• Krisis 2008 disebabkan karena
terganggunya rezim akumulasi finansial
Akumulasi Finansial
Skema 1. Anat omi Akumulasi Profit
Implikasi: Perdagangan Berkelanjut an (2)
•
Finansialisasi perdagangan “ t o ensure t rade is part of t he solut ion.”
Grafik 15. Est imat ed index t rader
posit ions and commodit y prices,
January 2006–M ay 2009
(Sumber: UNCTAD, Trade and
Development Report , 2009)
Mat riks Akumulasi Profit
M atriks 2x2 M odus
Akumulasi Profit
Paradigma
Sirkuit
Riil
Jual-Beli
Tradisional
GPN (Global
Prod. Net )/GVC
(Global Value
Chain)
Finansial
Finansialisasi
Komodit as/Aset
Real Time
Trading /
Spekulasi
Bentuk
Langsung
Peran Tiongkok
• Global Saving Glut (Bernanke [2005] Hypot hesis)
– Increased savings in China fueled a housing boom in t he US
– Event hough Americans’ saving st ill low despit e t he high
int erest rat e, t he void was filled by t he global savings (esp.
China)
– American borrowers rely on Chinese savers
Cadangan Devisa
To t a l Re se r v e s ( i n Tr i l l i o n U S$ ) & M 2 Ra t i o t o I t ( % )
18.00
4.500
16.27
4.000
3.840
16.00
15.37
3.331
3.500
14.00
3.203
2.866
3.000
12.00
11.21
2.500
2.000
8.13
6.63
9.42
7.95
7.77
6.90
2.416
10.00
9.82
8.32
9.06
9.06
8.59
8.34
8.19
8.14
1.949
8.00
7.57
7.18
6.73
1.530
6.13
6.04
1.500
10.00
9.56
5.04 5.24
6.00
1.068
4.70
0.822 4.15 4.01
1.000
0.614
0.500
0.0020.0020.0030.0050.011 0.0150.0170.0130.0110.0160.0190.018 0.030 0.044 0.0210.022 0.053
0.075 0.107
0.1430.149 0.1580.168
0.216
0.291
3.43 3.48 3.64 3.68
4.05
4.56 4.63
4.00
0.408
2.00
0.00
0.000
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total reserves minus gold (current US$)
M oney and quasi money (M 2) t o tot al reserves r atio (%)
(IM F, World Economic Out look)
Investasi Tiongkok (% GDP)
60
50
47.155
48.063 48.315 47.747 47.787 47.683
47.397 46.976
46.58 46.202
45.842
43.777
42.973
42.551
40.964
40.506 40.29
41.541 41.737 41.614
38.813
40
37.642 37.656
37.195
36.321
34.334
32.899
33.566
34.25
37.821
36.581
36.591
34.872 34.849
36.699
36.476
36.188 36.161
35.284
31.725
30
20
10
0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
"Urban renewal chinese style"
– Since 2008, less t han t wo mont hs after Lehman’s collapse, to
ant icipate t he impact of US crisis, Chinese Const ruct ion Invest ment
euphoria. In just 5 years:
• Roughly 400 billion pound stimulus program
• A new skyscrapper every 5 days
• M ore t han 30 new airport s
• System underways in 25 cit ies
• Over 60000 miles high speed railway t racks
• 3 longest bridges in t he world
• 26000 miles motorways
• “ Ghost Cit ies” and “ phantom malls” ; propert y bubble
• Data from BBC
Const ruct ion euphoria
•
•
•
China's GDP is only 9.4% of t he global GDP
China’s Populat ion is 19% of t he total world pops,
BUT
– Cement demand: 53.2% of global demand
– Iron ore = 47.7%
– Coal = 46.9%
– Pigs = 46.4%
– Steel = 45.4%
– Lead = 44.6%
– Zinc = 41.3%
– Aluminum = 40.6%
– Copper = 38.9%
– Eggs = 37.2%
– Nickel = 36.3%
– (M .Pett is, 2011)
Ghost cit ies & malls
Anatomi Konsumsi Cina
Final consum pt ion expendit ur e, et c. (% of GDP)
General government final consumption expendit ure (% of GDP)
Household final consumpt ion expendit ure, et c. (% of GDP)
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(IM F, World Economic Out look)
Konsumsi vs. Investasi
CHIM ERICA
•
China and America, before Chimerica:
– PCI
• By 1820 per capita income in t he United States was roughly t wice t hat of China;
• by 1870, nearly five t imes higher;
• by 1913 nearly ten t imes;
• by 1950 nearly t went y-t wo t imes.
– The average annual grow t h rate of per capita GDP
• in t he United States was 1.57 per cent bet ween 1820 and 1950.
• The equivalent figure for China was -0.24 per cent .
– Average person income
• In 1973 t he average Chinese income was at best 1:20 of t he average American.
• (Calculated in terms of internat ional dollars at market exchange rates, t he different ial was even
wider). As recent ly as 2006, t he rat io of US to Chinese per capita income by t his measure was st ill
22.9:1 .
•
Data compiled from Niall Ferguson, The Ascent of M oney (NY: Penguin, 2008) and Angus M addison, The
World Economy: A M illennial Perspect ive (Paris, 2001).
Global Savings Glut
– Increased savings in China fueled a housing boom in t he US
– Event hough Americans’ saving st ill low despit e t he high
int erest rat e, t he void was filled by t he global savings (esp.
China)
– American borrowers rely on Chinese savers
Post -CHIM ERICA
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
US’ Pact st rikes back?
China’s decoupling?
Three secret ive agreement
– TPP
– TTIP
– TISA
Re-regulat ion of financial services
‘State-investor dispute sett lement ’ t ribunal
M ilitarizat ion of IPE order
Corporat ion above t he state.
Geopolit ical M acroeconomic Consequence?
Repeat ing Brit ish-German “economic axis” before WW1?
Terima kasih
Hizkia Yosie Polimpung
Purusha Research Cooperat ive
Krit ik & saran:
yosieprodigy@gmail.com
hypolimpung@purusharc.org
Geopolitik M akroekonomi Global Kontemporer
(melampaui “Kebangkitan Tiongkok” dan “Kemunduran Amerika”)
Hizkia Yosie Polimpung
Purusha Research Cooperat ive
Diskusi di Pusat Kajian Wilayah Amerika, Universit as Indonesia
17 Desember 2014
Dua Wacana
• Kebangkitan Tongkok vs Kemunduran Amerika
• Benar. Hanya saja t idak semudah it u.
• Kedua wacana harus dilihat sebagai sat u kesat uan –
sebagai corak baru tatanan ekonomi polit ik
internasional.
• Tatanan baru PAX CHIM ERICA
Skema Present asi
• Krisis Finansial AS /(berdampak) Global
• Dimensi Global Pert umbuhan Ekonomi AS
– Ekonomi sebagai Sist em Akumulasi Profit
– Ekonomi Riil dan Finansial
• Lahirnya CHIMERICA dan Peran Tiongkok
• Tat a-Dunia Pasca-CHIMERICA (jika dunia masih ada)
Argumen Ut ama
Krisis f inansial global t elah mengubah secara fundament al
paradigm dan corak pengorganisasian ekonomi global:
1) Dengan mereka-ulang st at us dan posisi ekonomi
f inansial, ekonomi riil dan hubungan di ant ara
keduanya.
2) Dengan mencipt akan dua jangkar ekonomi baru
penopang t at a-dunia, yait u Tiongkok dan Amerika
Dampak Krisis Finansial AS
• Pandangan Umum:
–
–
–
–
Dampak domest ik, sosio-ekonomi; Occupy Wall St reet
Efek penularan (cont agion ef fect )
Pemerint ahan Global: G-Zero (Roubini, 2011)
Negara berkembang (EM DC, emerging market s & developing
count ries)
– Dampak negat ive ke ekonomi riil
Hanya ini? Apakah ada dampak sist emik global?
Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang
• Defisit neraca t ransaksi berjalan (current account
balance) AS
600
420.569
353.183
400
243.257237.81
231.843
223.743
193.139
136.097
132.378
200
-11.903 7.657 1.619 7.242
36.962 31.472
15.669 20.519 17.405
35.422 43.052
68.941
China
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-121.612 -113.571 -124.773
-140.72
India
-215.066
-400
Japan
-300.774
-416.32
-381.639
-396.691
Unit ed St at es
-518.663
-629.329
-681.343
-800
-713.39
-739.795
-798.478
-1000
Russia
-449.472 -457.726 -440.417 -451.458
-457.797
-600
Fr ance
Germany
-84.816
-200
Brazil
Grafik 1. Neraca Transaksi Berjalan
Negara-Negara M aju (Pilihan)
Sumber: World Economic Out look
Dat abase, IM F (Diolah)
Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang (2)
• Primasi sect or finansial di AS
Grafik 2. Tot al Hut ang Rumah-Tangga AS dan komposisinya
(Sumber: Quart erly Report in Household Debt and Credit , 2010 Q4,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Feb. 2011)
Grafik 3. Pengeluaran Konsumsi AS dan Kont ribusi Konsumsi
Rumah-Tangga (dlm. Triliun Dolar)
(Sumber: World Development Indicat or, World Bank,
diolah.)
Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang (3)
350,000
300,000
250,000
Low est fifth
200,000
Second fifth
Third fifth
150,000
Fourth fifth
Highest fift h
Top 5 percent
100,000
50,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
Grafik 4. Ket impangan Pemasukan di AS (dlm US$ 2010)
(Sumber: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Populat ion Survey, Annual
Social and Economic Supplement s, diolah)
Grafik 5. Hut ang rumah t angga dan harga rumah di
AS , 1995–2012
(Sumber: UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report ,
2013)
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global
• Dominasi sekt or finansial sw ast a t erhadap ekonomi
AS
Grafik 7. Kompisisi Hut ang AS, 1995–2012 (%PDB)
(Source: UNCTAD, Trade and Development
Report , 2013)
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (2)
•
Co/. Geliat pasar derivat ive (fut ures, forw ard [ OTC] , opt ions)
Forwards
Fut ures
Opt ions
PDB Dunia
Forwards
Fut ures
Turnover Fut ures
1586
700
648
604
596
600
1600
633
1524
1381
1400
1261
1160
1127
1200
500
1006
414
1000
840
400
800
298
625
251
596
600
197
547
604
601
648
633
414
200
100
Turnover Opt ions
1547
601
547
300
Opt ions
400
38
42
46
50
56
61
58
64
70
197
72
251
298
200
0
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Grafik 8 . Dominasi Sekt or Finansial dalam Ekonomi Global (dlm US$ t riliun)
(Sumber: BIS St at ist ics & Dat abank Worldbank, diolah)
2012
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Grafik 9. Volume Pasar Derivat if Global (dlm US$ t riliun)
(Sumber: BIS St at ist ics, diolah)
2010
2011
2012
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (3)
• Lima (5) Bank Invest asi Terbesar AS saat krisis:
– JP Morgan Chase Bank, Bank of America, Cit ibank, Wachovia Bank dan
HSBC Bank (Laporan Office of t he Compt roller of t he Currency, AS,
2008)
– Memiliki 95%dari t ot al derivat if AS (Q1, 2008)
– Kont rak : aset
• JP Morgan Chase US$ 87 t riliun : US$ 1,7 t riliun
• Bank of America US$ 38 t riliun : US$ 1,5 t riliun
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (4)
•
Sement ara it u, di belahan dunia lain …
–
Pert umbuhan berbasis nir-hut ang di EM DC
Rise of the
south?
Grafik 11. Evolusi Ekspor Negara Berkembang berdasarkan
produknya, 1995–2012 (Angka Index, 1995 = 100)
(Source: UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report , 2013 )
Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (5)
•
AS membut uhkan negara-negara berkembang di Selat an, dan t erut ama Cina,
unt uk “ menambal” defisit neraca t ransaksi berjalannya.
Cina (E)
Cina (I)
AS (E)
AS (I)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Grafik 12. Tot al Volume Ekspor-Impor Cina
dan AS (dlm. Jut a Dolar)
(Sumber: WTO St at ist ics Dat abase, diolah)
Anat omi Akumulasi Profit
• Krisis dalam salah sat u roda akan membuat
Akumulasi Spasial
Pra-Kapital
Akumulasi Riil
roda lain t erganggu
• Pemulihan Krisis ekonomi dengan demikian
selalu mensyarat kan pembenahan dan
pembaharuan pada fungsi akumulasi
keunt ungan ini.
• Krisis 2008 disebabkan karena
terganggunya rezim akumulasi finansial
Akumulasi Finansial
Skema 1. Anat omi Akumulasi Profit
Implikasi: Perdagangan Berkelanjut an (2)
•
Finansialisasi perdagangan “ t o ensure t rade is part of t he solut ion.”
Grafik 15. Est imat ed index t rader
posit ions and commodit y prices,
January 2006–M ay 2009
(Sumber: UNCTAD, Trade and
Development Report , 2009)
Mat riks Akumulasi Profit
M atriks 2x2 M odus
Akumulasi Profit
Paradigma
Sirkuit
Riil
Jual-Beli
Tradisional
GPN (Global
Prod. Net )/GVC
(Global Value
Chain)
Finansial
Finansialisasi
Komodit as/Aset
Real Time
Trading /
Spekulasi
Bentuk
Langsung
Peran Tiongkok
• Global Saving Glut (Bernanke [2005] Hypot hesis)
– Increased savings in China fueled a housing boom in t he US
– Event hough Americans’ saving st ill low despit e t he high
int erest rat e, t he void was filled by t he global savings (esp.
China)
– American borrowers rely on Chinese savers
Cadangan Devisa
To t a l Re se r v e s ( i n Tr i l l i o n U S$ ) & M 2 Ra t i o t o I t ( % )
18.00
4.500
16.27
4.000
3.840
16.00
15.37
3.331
3.500
14.00
3.203
2.866
3.000
12.00
11.21
2.500
2.000
8.13
6.63
9.42
7.95
7.77
6.90
2.416
10.00
9.82
8.32
9.06
9.06
8.59
8.34
8.19
8.14
1.949
8.00
7.57
7.18
6.73
1.530
6.13
6.04
1.500
10.00
9.56
5.04 5.24
6.00
1.068
4.70
0.822 4.15 4.01
1.000
0.614
0.500
0.0020.0020.0030.0050.011 0.0150.0170.0130.0110.0160.0190.018 0.030 0.044 0.0210.022 0.053
0.075 0.107
0.1430.149 0.1580.168
0.216
0.291
3.43 3.48 3.64 3.68
4.05
4.56 4.63
4.00
0.408
2.00
0.00
0.000
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total reserves minus gold (current US$)
M oney and quasi money (M 2) t o tot al reserves r atio (%)
(IM F, World Economic Out look)
Investasi Tiongkok (% GDP)
60
50
47.155
48.063 48.315 47.747 47.787 47.683
47.397 46.976
46.58 46.202
45.842
43.777
42.973
42.551
40.964
40.506 40.29
41.541 41.737 41.614
38.813
40
37.642 37.656
37.195
36.321
34.334
32.899
33.566
34.25
37.821
36.581
36.591
34.872 34.849
36.699
36.476
36.188 36.161
35.284
31.725
30
20
10
0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
"Urban renewal chinese style"
– Since 2008, less t han t wo mont hs after Lehman’s collapse, to
ant icipate t he impact of US crisis, Chinese Const ruct ion Invest ment
euphoria. In just 5 years:
• Roughly 400 billion pound stimulus program
• A new skyscrapper every 5 days
• M ore t han 30 new airport s
• System underways in 25 cit ies
• Over 60000 miles high speed railway t racks
• 3 longest bridges in t he world
• 26000 miles motorways
• “ Ghost Cit ies” and “ phantom malls” ; propert y bubble
• Data from BBC
Const ruct ion euphoria
•
•
•
China's GDP is only 9.4% of t he global GDP
China’s Populat ion is 19% of t he total world pops,
BUT
– Cement demand: 53.2% of global demand
– Iron ore = 47.7%
– Coal = 46.9%
– Pigs = 46.4%
– Steel = 45.4%
– Lead = 44.6%
– Zinc = 41.3%
– Aluminum = 40.6%
– Copper = 38.9%
– Eggs = 37.2%
– Nickel = 36.3%
– (M .Pett is, 2011)
Ghost cit ies & malls
Anatomi Konsumsi Cina
Final consum pt ion expendit ur e, et c. (% of GDP)
General government final consumption expendit ure (% of GDP)
Household final consumpt ion expendit ure, et c. (% of GDP)
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(IM F, World Economic Out look)
Konsumsi vs. Investasi
CHIM ERICA
•
China and America, before Chimerica:
– PCI
• By 1820 per capita income in t he United States was roughly t wice t hat of China;
• by 1870, nearly five t imes higher;
• by 1913 nearly ten t imes;
• by 1950 nearly t went y-t wo t imes.
– The average annual grow t h rate of per capita GDP
• in t he United States was 1.57 per cent bet ween 1820 and 1950.
• The equivalent figure for China was -0.24 per cent .
– Average person income
• In 1973 t he average Chinese income was at best 1:20 of t he average American.
• (Calculated in terms of internat ional dollars at market exchange rates, t he different ial was even
wider). As recent ly as 2006, t he rat io of US to Chinese per capita income by t his measure was st ill
22.9:1 .
•
Data compiled from Niall Ferguson, The Ascent of M oney (NY: Penguin, 2008) and Angus M addison, The
World Economy: A M illennial Perspect ive (Paris, 2001).
Global Savings Glut
– Increased savings in China fueled a housing boom in t he US
– Event hough Americans’ saving st ill low despit e t he high
int erest rat e, t he void was filled by t he global savings (esp.
China)
– American borrowers rely on Chinese savers
Post -CHIM ERICA
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
US’ Pact st rikes back?
China’s decoupling?
Three secret ive agreement
– TPP
– TTIP
– TISA
Re-regulat ion of financial services
‘State-investor dispute sett lement ’ t ribunal
M ilitarizat ion of IPE order
Corporat ion above t he state.
Geopolit ical M acroeconomic Consequence?
Repeat ing Brit ish-German “economic axis” before WW1?
Terima kasih
Hizkia Yosie Polimpung
Purusha Research Cooperat ive
Krit ik & saran:
yosieprodigy@gmail.com
hypolimpung@purusharc.org