the techniques of spatial multi-criteria analysis and fuzzy logic. Yalcin and Akyurek
2002 generate a composite map for decision makers by using some effective factors causing flood. The study reviewed the role of GIS in decision-
making and then outlined the evaluation approach for many criteria in decision process. The uncertain knowledge in multi-criteria decision making was held by
considering standardized criteria as fuzzy measures. Vulnerability analysis for mud volcano hazard involves incorporation of
expert knowledge at various levels of decision-making. Expert cannot be sure and certain all the time, vagueness and imprecision involved in expert knowledge can
be well addressed using fuzzy logic. In this research Fuzzy AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to asses the vagueness that involved with expert
knowledge.
1.2 Research Objective
The objectives of the research are: 1.
To develop multi-criteria evaluation method using fuzzy analysis approach for mud volcano vulnerable area.
2. To develop mud volcano vulnerable map of Sidoarjo Regency using
performance value is obtained from multi-criteria evaluation on the basis of fuzzy analysis approach.
1.3 Research Question
The present study aims at answering the following questions framed in order to achieve the above mentioned objective.
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Research question related to the first objective are: 1.
What are the required evaluation criteria to assess mud volcano vulnerable model?
2. How to incorporate the expert knowledge and uncertainty to judge the
parameters involve in it? 3.
How sensitivity of the process can be measured? Research question related to the second objective is:
4. How to apply multi-criteria evaluation and fuzzy analysis approach for
developing mud volcano vulnerable map?
1.4 Scope of the Research
1. Study area is chosen in Sidoajo Regency, East Java as working area of
The National Sidoarjo Mudflow Mitigation TeamBPLS. 2.
The analysis is only performed for the area outside the mud embankment and limited to settlement area.
3. Multi-criteria decision making for Vulnerability Analysis is performed
using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process Fuzzy-AHP. 4.
The usefulness of vulnerability map resulted from this research only appropriate for duration of the research study.
1.5 Research Output
Final output of the research is the mud volcano vulnerable analysis method using multi-criteria decision analysis and Fuzzy-AHP. Vulnerable map for
settlement area then is created on the basis of weighting resulted from Fuzzy AHP
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by applying GIS spatial analysis to identify settlement area is significantly vulnerable to mud volcano hazard. Vulnerable map will be compared with
existing impacted area of mud volcano. The expected advantage of the research is that using the fuzzy multi-
criteria decision analysis method, mud volcano vulnerable area can be created addressing the vagueness associated with the expert knowledge. In the case of
mud volcano in Sidoarjo, hazard vulnerable analysis area has been performed only for area of study using proposed methodology. The vulnerable map that is
overlaid with impacted area has been stated by government regulation and settlement area will facilitate local government in making decision for further
planning.
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II. LITERATURE REVIEW
