I. INTRODUCTION
1. Background
Land use management and policy decisions are almost always based on the analysis of the factors pertaining to each particular issue. The concentration of managing area at the strategic level deal with further
development in order to assess the performance of intervention measures and to reassess the priorities for intervention in the light of ongoing developments. This activity must consider risk level of area from natural
disasters source such as earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, landslides, etc.
Since May 29
th
2006, a sea of hot mud has been gushing from the ground in Sidoarjo, East Java, 35 kilometers south of Indonesias second largest city, Surabaya. Thousands of people have been forced to move
from their homes when hot mud continued spurting from the ground near a gas exploration well on Indonesias most densely populated island. So far, all efforts to stop the flow have failed. Some sources have
warned that the mudflow could go on for many more months, or even years, and most think that the flow is could not be stopped Pohl, 2007 and caused many negative impacts for environment, humanitarian and
infrastructure.
Data and information about the extent of the area affected by the hazard is urgently required in order to manage the planning of a medium term strategy based on a number of options including the worst case
scenario. Identifying vulnerable area of hot mud volcano is important for the government of Sidoarjo to provide information about the area that is dangerous enough and critical to relocate people in this area to a
safer place. Besides, this activity also presents information on area which is still effective and potential for further development planning to reduce the impact of natural hazards.
Vulnerability analysis requires consideration of a comprehensive set of factors and balancing of multiple objectives in determining the dangerous level of particular area from a defined hazard source.
Geographical information systems have been a powerful supporting tool for spatial planning during the last decades, and a lot of advanced methods and techniques have been developed. However, most often,
deterministic overlay and buffer functions are used in site location studies. When handling multiple conflicting criteria, this kind of geoprocessing is of limited use Janssen, 1990 in Hansen, 2004 and another
approach is needed. Multi-criteria evaluations techniques can provide tools for analysing the complex trade- offs between choice alternatives with different environmental and socio-economic impacts.
Vulnerability analysis for natural hazard deals with uncertainty arises due to the lack of information about system behavior vagueness, ambiguity, fuzziness and inexactness of measurement impreciseness,
fuzziness Zischg et al, 2005. Expert knowledge that involved in multi criteria decision making will include some vagueness and imprecision to judge the parameters. Using Boolean logic is impossible to model the
uncertainties since it only judge the range into crisp value true or false, which limit the analysis to specific region. Probabilistic theory provides methods dealing with uncertainty related to randomness and cannot be
applied when it is imprecise and incomplete. Fuzzy logic provides mathematical methods aids in information that are imprecise, incomplete and vague. The value expresses in continuous degrees of belonging to a set,
ranging from 0.0 to 1.0.
Vulnerability analysis for mud volcano hazard involves incorporation of expert knowledge at various levels of decision-making. Expert cannot be sure and certain all the time, uncertainty and
imprecision involved in expert knowledge can be well addressed using fuzzy logic. In this research Fuzzy AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to asses the uncertainty that involved with expert knowledge.
2. Objectives
The objectives of the research are: 1.
To develop multi criteria evaluation method using fuzzy analysis approach for mud volcano vulnerable area.
2. To develop mud volcano vulnerable map using performance value is obtained from multi-criteria
evaluation on the basis of fuzzy analysis approach. 3.
Scope
1. Study area is chosen in Sidoajo Regency, East Java as working area of The National Sidoarjo Mudflow
Mitigation TeamBPLS. 2.
The analysis is only performed for the area outside the mud embankment and limited to settlement area. 3.
Multi-criteria decision making for Vulnerability Analysis is performed using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process Fuzzy-AHP.
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II. LITERATURE REVIEW
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