The revenue functionals Extension to phase-type and hyperexponential jumps

D. Perry, W. Stadje Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 26 2000 25–36 29 ϕα − βE Z τ y e − αXt −βt dt = − e − αx + E e − αXτ y −βτ y = − e − αx + E e − βτ y 1 { Xτ y = 0} + P Xτ y 0Ee − αXτ y −βτ y | Xτ y 0 + e − αx+y E e − βτ y 1 { Xτ y =x+y} + P Xτ y x + yE e − αXτ y −βτ y |Xτ y x + y = − e − αx + φ y 1 β + P Xτ y ν ν − α E e − βτ y | Xτ y + e − αx+y φ y 3 β + P Xτ y x + y e − αx+y ξ ξ + α E e − βτ y | Xτ y x + y = − e − αx + φ y 1 β + ν ν − α φ y 2 β + e − αx+y φ y 3 β + e − αx+y ξ ξ + α φ y 4 β. 2.3 Eq. 2.3 holds for every α ∈ −ν, ξ ; but since all terms are analytic functions for α ∈ C\{−ν, ξ }, it follows from the identity theorem for analytic functions that 2.3 holds for all α ∈ C\{−ν, ξ and all β ≥ 0. In particular, we can set α = α i β, i = 1, 2, 3, 4, and obtain the four equations 0 = −e − α i βx + φ y 1 β + ν ν − α i β φ y 2 β + e − α i βx+y φ y 3 β + e − α i βx+y ξ ξ + α i β φ y 4 β, i = 1, 2, 3, 4. 2.4 Aβ is the coefficient matrix of this system of linear equations, and the solution is thus given by 2.2.

3. The revenue functionals

In this section we study the behavior of X until the bankruptcy time T = inf{t ≥ 0|Xt ≤ 0}. We assume from now on that µ − ηξ + λν 0, i.e. the process has a downward drift. This ensures ET ∞. We start from the martingale relation EMT = EM0, which can be written more explicitly as ϕα − βE Z T e − αXs−βs ds = − e − αx + E e − αXT −βT . 3.1 One can obtain the LT of T by letting y in φ y β tend to infinity, but it is easier to use 3.1 and the decomposition E e − αXT −βT = E e − βT 1 { XT = 0} + ξ ξ − α E e − βT 1 { XT 0} = ρ 1 β + ξ ξ − α ρ 2 β, 3.2 where ρ i β = lim y→∞ φ y i β . Setting α = α i β, i = 2, 3, in 3.1 yields 0 = −e − α i βx + ρ 1 β + ξ ξ − α i β ρ 2 β, i = 2, 3. 3.3 The solution of 3.3 is given by ρ 2 β = ξ − α 2 βξ − α 3 β ξα 2 β − α 3 β e − α 2 β − e − α 3 β , 3.4 ρ 1 β = e − α 2 β − α 2 β ξ − α 2 β ρ 2 β. 3.5 30 D. Perry, W. Stadje Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 26 2000 25–36 Hence, by 3.1 and 3.2, E Z T e − αXs−βs ds = ϕα − β − 1 ρ 1 β + ξ ξ − α ρ 2 β − e − αx . 3.6 Inserting 2.1 in 3.6, taking the derivative in 3.6 with respect to α and then setting α = 0 gives the desired revenue functional E R T Xs e − βs ds . We omit the tedious algebra and state the result. Theorem 2. The revenue functionals are given by E e − βT = ρ 1 β + ρ 2 β, E Z T Xs e − βs ds = ρ 1 β + ρ 2 β − 1µ − ηξ + λν β 2 + x β + ρ 2 β βξ . The quasi-stationary distribution of X can also be derived from 3.6. Its LT is given by E R T e − αXs ds ET = e − αx − ρ 1 0 + ξ ξ − αρ 2 ϕαρ ′ 1 0 + ρ ′ 2 . 3.7 The numerator on the left-hand side of 3.7 is computed from 3.6 by setting β = 0.

4. Extension to phase-type and hyperexponential jumps

In order to see how the above martingale approach can be extended to phase-type and hyperexponential jumps, we consider as an example the case that the positive jumps are Erlang ν, 2 while the distribution of the negative jumps is a mixture of expξ 1 and expξ 2 with weights p and 1 − p, respectively. Thus, the LT of the jump size is ψα = λ λ + η ν ν + α 2 + η λ + η p ξ 1 ξ 1 − α + 1 − p ξ 2 ξ 2 − α , for some p ∈ 0, 1 and ν, ξ 1 , ξ 2 0. The exponent of X is given by ϕα = α 2 2 − µα − λ 1 − ν ν + α 2 − η 1 − pξ 1 ξ 1 − α − 1 − pξ 2 ξ 2 − α . Lemma 2. There is a β ∗ 0 such that for the equation ϕα − β = 0 the following holds: 1. If β ∈ 0, β ∗ , there are six distinct real roots. 2. If β ∈ β ∗ , ∞ , there are four distinct real roots and two conjugate non-real roots. 3. If β = β ∗ , there are five distinct real roots, one of them having the multiplicity 2. Proof. The equation ϕα = β is equivalent to a polynomial equation of degree six so that there are exactly six complex roots, counted with their multiplicities. Every intersection point of the real curves hα = β + µα − α 2 2 and gα = λ1 − [νν + α] 2 − η 1 − pξ 1 ξ 1 − α − 1 − pξ 2 ξ 2 − α gives a root. The parabola h satisfies h0 = β ≤ 0, and because of h ′ 0 = µ 0, has its maximum at some positive value. Considering the behavior of g at its three vertical asymptotes at α = −ν, ξ 1 , ξ 2 , it is easily seen that there are exactly four intersection points one in each of the intervals −ν, 0, 0, ξ 1 , ξ 1 , ξ 2 , ξ 2 , ∞ , while for sufficiently large β there are two more in −∞, −ν; only for one value β ∗ of β there is a real double root. In the case of only four real roots i.e. if β β ∗ , there are two more non-real roots, which are conjugate complex and thus distinct. D. Perry, W. Stadje Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 26 2000 25–36 31 Any downward jump of X can be thought of as the realization of a two-stage experiment: choose ξ 1 or ξ 2 with probability p or 1 − p, respectively, and then take an expξ 1 or on expξ 2 random variable. An upward jump is composed of two independent phases, each being expν-distributed. Now the process X can leave the interval 0, x + y in six different ways: 1 by an expξ 1 downward jump, 2 by an expξ 2 downward jump, 3 in the first phase of an upward jump, 4 in the second phase of an upward jump, 5 without jump, i.e. by the Brownian component, at 0, 6 without jump at x + y. Define the random variable Z by setting Z = i if and only if case i occurs, 1 ≤ i ≤ 6. The LT ψ y β = E e − βτ y of τ y can be written as ψ y β = P 6 i= 1 ψ y i β , where ψ y i β = E e − βτ y 1 { Z=i} . We now show how to compute ψ y i β, 1 ≤ i ≤ 6. The basic observation is that Xτ y and τ y are condi- tionally independent, given Z; moreover, −Xτ y is expξ -distributed given Z = i, i = 1, 2, while Xτ y is expν-distributed if Z = 3, and expν ∗ expν-distributed if Z = 4. If Z = 5 or Z = 6, we have Xτ y ≡ or Xτ y ≡ x + y , respectively. Therefore, by using again the martingale equation EMτ y = EM 0, we obtain ϕα − βE Z τ y e − αXt −βt dt = − e − αx + E e − αXτ y −βτ y = − e − αx + ξ 1 ξ 1 − α ψ y 1 β + ξ 2 ξ 2 − α ψ y 2 β + e − αx+y ν ν + α ψ y 3 β + e − αx+y ν ν + α 2 ψ y 4 y + ψ y 5 β + e − αx+y ψ y 6 β. 4.1 Let β 6= β ∗ . Then ϕα − β = 0 has six distinct roots α i β, 1 ≤ i ≤ 6, and inserting them in 4.1 yields a system of six linear equations for the six unknowns ψ y j β, 1 ≤ j ≤ 6. The closed-form solution of these equations is easily available, e.g. via MATHEMATICA, but not very illuminating. If β = β ∗ , we may of course take limits to obtain ψ y i β ∗ = lim β ∗ 6= β→β ∗ ψ y i β . But we can also proceed as follows. Let α 1 β ∗ be the double root of ϕα − β ∗ = 0. Taking the derivative with respect to α in the first equation of 4.1 and inserting α = α 1 β ∗ we find that the left-hand side is equal to 0, while the right-hand side is given by x e − α 1 β ∗ x − EXτ y e − α 1 β ∗ Xτ y −βτ y . Again, Xτ y and τ y are conditionally independent given Z = i, so that x e − α 1 β ∗ x = EXτ y e − α 1 β ∗ Xτ y −βτ y = 6 X i= 1 EXτ y e − α 1 β ∗ Xτ y | Z = iψ y i β ∗ . 4.2 The conditional distribution of Xτ y , given Z = i, was given above for i = 1, . . . , 6; it is either a point mass or exponential or Erlang. Thus, 4.2 provides the “missing” sixth linear equation for the ψ y i β ∗ . The above technique can be applied in the case of general phase-type or hyperexponential jump size distributions upwards and downwards. However, there may be more roots of higher multiplicity. Then one has to take higher derivatives to obtain a sufficiently large number of linear equations for the partial LTs.

5. The maximal value of the cash fund before bankruptcy