THE EFFECT OF PREDICTION AND INFERENCE STRATEGY ON STUDENTS’ READING COMPREHENSION IN ANALYTICAL EXPOSITION TEXT.

THE EFFECT OF PREDICTION AND INFERENCE STRATEGY
ON STUDENTS’ READING COMPREHENSION
IN ANALYTICAL EXPOSITION TEXT

A THESIS
Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
For the degree of Sarjana Pendidikan

By:

ERA ENJELYNA LUMBANRAJA
REGISTER NUMBER: 2113121022

ENGLISH AND LITERATURE DEPARTMENT
FACULTY OF LANGUAGES AND ARTS
STATE UNIVERSITY OF MEDAN
2016

ABSTRACT
Lumbanraja, Era Enjelyna. 2113121022. The Effect of Prediction and
Inference Strategy on Students’ Reading Comprehension in Analytical

Exposition Text. A Thesis. Faculty of Languages and Arts, State University of
Medan. 2016.
This study aims at investigating the effect of prediction and inference strategy on
students’ reading comprehension in analytical exposition text. This study was
conducted by using experimental research design. The population of the study was
the students of grade XI of SMA Negeri 14 Medan in the academic year
2015/2016; two classes were selected as the sample by applying random
sampling. The sample was divided into two groups. The Experimental group (XI
IPA 1) was taught by applying prediction and inference strategy, while the control
group (XI IPA 3) was taught by using direct instructional teaching. The data of the
study were obtained by using objectives test. To determine the reliability of the
test, the writer used KR 20 formula. The data calculation showed that the
coefficient of reliability of the test was 0.81. It showed that the test was reliable.
The data were analyzed by applying t-test formula and the result of the study
showed that t-observed (4.29) was higher than t-table (2.00) (t-observed > t-table)
at the level of significance of α = 0.05 and at the degree of freedom (df) = 58. It
means that prediction and inference strategy significantly affects students’ reading
comprehension in analytical exposition text or in other word the alternative
hypothesis is accepted.
Keywords: Prediction and Inference Strategy, Analytical Exposition Text


i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The greatest and deepest countless thanks to most merciful, the Almighty
God, Jesus Christ for His amazing love, uncountable blessing and strength are
given to the writer during her study and in completing this thesis. This thesis is
submitted to the English Department, Faculty of Languages and Arts, State
University of Medan as one of the requirements for the degree of Sarjana
Pendidikan.
In the process of completing this thesis, the writer faced some difficulties
and problems. The writer also has worked with a greater number of people who
give guidance, suggestions, advices, comments and moral supports. Therefore, the
writer would like to express her thanks and sincere gratitude to:

Prof. Dr. Syawal Gultom., M.Pd., the Rector of State University of
Medan.

Dr. Isda Pramuniati, M.Hum., the Dean of Faculty of Languages
and Arts, State University of Medan.


Prof. Dr. Hj. Sumarsih, M.Pd., the Head of English Department.

Dra. Meisuri, M.A., the Secretary of English Department and her
Reviewer and Examiner, who has given her precious time, guidance,
suggestions, and comments.

Nora Ronita Dewi, S.Pd, S.S., M.Hum., the Head of English
Education Study Program

Prof. Dr. Berlin Sibarani, M.Pd., her Thesis Advisor, who has
guide, support, advises and give his precious time in the process of
completing this thesis.

Prof. Dr. Sri Minda Murni, M.S., her Academic Advisor and
Reviewer and Examiner, who has supported her throughout the
academic years and has given guidance, support, and comments.

Prof. Dr. Busmin Gurning, M.Pd., her Reviewer and Examiner,
who has given her precious time, guidance, suggestions, and

comments.

All the Lecturers of English Department who have taught, guided,
and advised her throughout the academic years.

Eis Sri Wahyuningsih, M.Pd., as the Administration Staff of English
Department, for her attention, assistance, and information in
completing this thesis.

Sofyan, S.Pd., the Headmaster of SMA Negeri 14 Medan, for his
permission in allowing the writer to do observation and to collect the
data needed for the thesis.

Nurjannah, S.Pd., M.Hum., the English Teacher of SMA Negeri 3
Medan, for the supports, guidance, suggestions and motivation in the
process of completing this thesis. And all the teachers and students at
the school for the good cooperation

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Her beloved parents, Barita Lumbanraja and Nurliana Harinja, her
lovely brothers, Aji Lumbanraja and Carlos Lumbanraja, for their
everlasting love, prayer, great motivation, courage and everything that
that they have given to the writer during the study and in completing
the thesis. This thesis is dedicated to you

Her beloved bestfriends, Fibie Liona, Irdawati Siagian, Dwi Suci
Indahswari Tarigan, Yessi Van Carmelia Simbolon, Lestaria
Doloksaribu, Indah Pratama Prida, Intam Nilam Sari, Siti
Khairin Nasroh, Novia, Aryadi M Gultom, Jelita Sitorus, Harni
Gultom for the courage, support, help and spirit during the
completing of her thesis.

Her lovely family in R/N HKBP Binjai Amplas, especially Gr.
Klemens Situmeang, Bang Jubi Simanjuntak, Kak Ferty
Hutajulu, Bang Richi Suhendra Manullang, Jenny Tobing, Ester
Sinaga, Artha Tambunan, Ochien Tobing, Ricky Purba, Mangisi
Sihombing, Mori Silitonga, Ester Siregar, for their prayer,

motivation, support, and spirit during completing this thesis.

Her lovely sisters, Yusnita Tamba, Jesika Puspita Sari, Ardhana
Sipahutar, Paskah Sitorus, Sadarni Damanik, for their time,
support and spirit.

Her friends in Regular Dik A 2011, for their togetherness throughout
the four years

Her friends in PPLT 2014 SMK Soposurung, especially for Rohana
Tarawati, Angela Mutia, Debora Panjaitan, Ganda Sianipar, Ira
Simamora, Rades Sianipar, Iwandi Sagala for the togetherness and
the experiences shared. And also for those who cannot mentioned on
by one.
Last but not least, the writes realizes that this thesis still has the paucity and
mistakes, she conveniently to accept suggestions, comments, critics and advices
for the better writing.

Medan,
February 2016

The Writer,

Era Enjelyna Lumbanraja
Reg No. 2113121022

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Pages
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................... ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS..................................................................................... iv
LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................. vii
LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................... viii
LIST OF APPENDICES ..................................................................................... ix
CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................1
A. The Background of Study ............................................................................1
B. The Problem of Study ..................................................................................5
C. The Objective of Study ................................................................................5

D. The Scope of Study ......................................................................................6
E. The Significance of Study ............................................................................6
CHAPTER II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE .....................................................7
A. Theoretical Framework ............................................................................... 7
1. The Nature of Reading Comprehension ................................................. 7
2. Factors Affecting Reading Comprehension ..........................................11
3. Levels of Reading Comprehension .......................................................12
4. Measuring Reading Comprehension ....................................................14
5. Teaching Reading Comprehension ........................................................16
6. Analytical Exposition Text ....................................................................18
7. Prediction and Inference Strategy..........................................................20
a. The Nature of Prediction and Inference Strategy ...................................20

iv

b. The Procedures of Prediction and Inference Strategy in Reading
Comprehension ......................................................................................22
c. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Prediction and Inference
Strategy ..................................................................................................24
B. Conceptual Framework .............................................................................25

C. Hypothesis ..................................................................................................26
CHAPTER III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...........................................27
A. Research Design .........................................................................................27
B. Population and Sample ..............................................................................2 8
C. The Source of Data .....................................................................................28
D. The Instruments for Collecting Data ..........................................................28
E. The Procedures of Research .......................................................................29
1. Try Out .................................................................................................29
2. Pre-Test ..................................................................................................29
3. Treatment ...............................................................................................29
4. Post-Test ................................................................................................31
F.

Scoring System ........................................................................................31

G. The Validity and Reliability of the Test ...................................................32
1. The Validity of the Test .........................................................................32
2. The Reliability of the Test .....................................................................33
H. Homogeneity and Normality of the test .....................................................34
1. Homogeneity of Variance ......................................................................34

2. Normality of the test ..............................................................................35
I. The Technique for Analyzing Data ............................................................35
J. Statistical Hypothesis ....................................................................................... 36
CHAPTER IV. DATA AND DATA ANALYSIS .............................................37
A. Data Description.........................................................................................37
B. Data Analysis ............................................................................................41
1. Validity of the test ................................................................................41

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2. Reliability of the test .............................................................................42
3. Testing of Homogeneity of Variance ...................................................43
4. Testing Normality ..................................................................................44
5. Data Analysis by Using t-test formula ..................................................45
C. Testing Hypothesis .....................................................................................46
D. Research Findings ......................................................................................47
E. Discussion ..................................................................................................47
CHAPTER V. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION .....................................51
A. Conclusion .................................................................................................51
B. Suggestion ..................................................................................................51

REFERENCES .....................................................................................................52

vi

LISTS OF TABLE
Pages
Table 1.1 The Eleventh Grade Students’ Score of Reading Test .............................3
Table 3.1 Research Design .....................................................................................27
Table 3.2 Treatment in Experimental Group .........................................................30
Table 3.3 Conventional Teaching in Control Group..............................................31
Table 4.1 Students’ Achievement Score in Pre-test and Post-test .........................38
Table 4.2 Test for Homogeneity of Variance.........................................................44

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LIST OF FIGURE
Pages
Figure 2.1 The example of Analytical Exposition Text .........................................19
Figure 4.1 Students’ achievement score in Pre-test ...............................................39
Figure 4.2 Students’ achievement score in Post-test ..............................................40

viii

LIST OF APPENDICES
Pages
Appendix A. Pre-Test And Post Test for Experimental And Control Group ........56
Appendix B. Answer Key of Reading Test Pre-Test and Post-Test ......................64
Appendix C. The Scores of Pre-Test and Post-Test ..............................................65
Appendix D. The Scores of Validity ......................................................................67
Appendix E. The Scores of Reliability ..................................................................68
Appendix F. The Calculation of Reliability ...........................................................70
Appendix G. The Table Calculation of t-Test ........................................................71
Appendix H. The Calculation of t-Test ..................................................................74
Appendix I. Percentage Points of T Distribution ............................................................... 76

Appendix J. Test for Homogeneity of Variance of Pre-test in Experimental and
Control Group .......................................................................................................77
Appendix K. Test for Homogeneity of Variance of Post-test in Experimental and
Control Group ........................................................................................................79
Appendix L. Test for Distribution of Frequency in Experimental Group..............81
Appendix M. Test for Distribution of Frequency in Control Group .....................84
Appendix N. Testing Normality in Experimental Group .......................................87
Appendix O. Testing Normality in Control Group ................................................89
Appendix P. Table of Normality from 0 to Z.........................................................91
Appendix Q. List of Testing Liliefors ...................................................................92
Appendix R. F-Distribution (α = 0,05 in the Right Tail) .......................................93
Appendix S. Lesson Plan .......................................................................................94

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CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION

A. The Background of the Study
Reading is one of the basic skills that should be mastered by the students
in learning English. It has a significant contribution to be successful in learning.
Reading is the reader’s act to gain the information which is stated directly or
indirectly in the text. Through reading, students will be able to increase their
knowledge. They will get useful information so that they can think critically
because they have a wide insight.
According to Snowling and Hulme (2011) reading is primary goal of
learning education, in which the goal of reading is to get the competence in
understanding and comprehending the text. In reading skill, the students are not
only expected to read the text in good pronunciation or to find out the meaning of
each word within the text but also to understand, to evaluate and to recognize the
writer’s ideas of the reading text.
Reading is thinking and understanding the meaning in the text. It means
that in comprehending the text, the students should have the ability to go to
beyond the word, to understand the ideas and the relationship between ideas
conveyed in the text (Serravallo 2010:43). However, in process of getting the
meaning, the students are not able to achieve those things. It can be caused of two
factors, namely; internal factor and external factor.

1

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The internal factor comes from students themselves such as minimum
vocabulary, lack of knowledge and reading interest. This situation makes the
students having difficulties in getting the meaning in the text. Another factor is
external factor which comes from out of the students, such as teaching strategy
and materials that the teacher uses in teaching reading. The teacher still uses
conventional teaching. The teacher only asks the students to read the text, find out
the difficult words, and translate the words into Indonesian. Then, last activity is
answering the questions in the textbook. The materials that the teacher provides is
also unattractive, therefore the students feel that reading is boring activity and
they can’t improve their knowledge.
However, according to The Nation’s Report card: Reading 2013, there is
only 33% of all eight graders which are in above a proficient level, while 42% at a
basic level, and 23% at below-basic level. It means that more than 60% of
students in eighth grade in 2013 were struggling to comprehend the text. It means
that the ability of the students to comprehend is still lower; therefore, the students
can’t comprehend the text well.
The problem of students in comprehending a text was found in SMA
Negeri 14 Medan while the writer did the observation. The writer asked the
students’ opinion about reading class. Most of the students said that reading text
especially reading analytical exposition text was uninteresting activity and they
thought that reading is useless activity because they do not understand the text.
The teacher also taught the students by using conventional teaching, in which the
teacher only asked the students to read the passage then, mark the generic

3

structure of the text and answer the questions in the text book. These strategies
made the students feel bored and do not have willingness in reading the text. The
writer found the data of XI grade students’ score in the first semester at 2014/2015
academic year from English teacher. The students got the score below Minimum
Competence Criteria (Kriteria Ketuntasan Minimum) of English lesson. The score
of reading test from the students can be seen as follows.
Table 1.1 The Eleventh Grade Students’ Score of Reading Test
Class
XI-IPA-1

Semesters
Score
nd
2 Semester
≤ 75
2014/2015
≥ 75
nd
2 Semester
≤ 75
XI-IPA-3
2014/2015
≥ 75
Source: SMA Negeri 14 Medan (2015)

Students
10
20
8
23

Percentages
33.3
66.6
26.6
76.6

The Minimum Completeness Criterion (KKM) in SMA Negeri 14 Medan
was 75. From the data above, it can be concluded that students’ reading
comprehension is still low. From 60 students, there were only 18 Students got
score of Minimum Competence Criteria and 42 students who did not get the score
of Minimum Competence Criteria.
In addition, based on the writer’s experience at Teaching Practice in PPLT
2014 in Vocational high school, most of the students were not able to read and
comprehend the text. It was caused by the lack of vocabulary and teaching
learning process isn’t effective. Most of the students were passive in the class.
They also have minimum score in English Subject.
Considering the condition above, the teachers should create the new ways
of teaching reading. In order to achieve the learning purpose, the teachers have to
use an effective strategy and attractive material which is appropriate with the

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strategy. Prediction and Inference Strategy is one of the strategies that is useful to
help the students to gain the meaning of the text.
Prediction and Inference strategy is an effective strategy to develop their
mental models to combining the current text information with one’s own
experience in order to create meaning that not directly states in the text. It means
creating connections and making educated guesses that go beyond the author’s
exact words or images.
Zwiers (2010: 99) states that the students use the text clues and our
background knowledge to predict what will happen next in a text or what we will
learn later in a text. Students then go through the text to confirm, discard, change,
or make new predictions, based on new evidence that comes up. Prediction
provides the students with motivation and purpose for reading. It also helps the
mind preparing itself to understand the upcoming ideas in the text.
Through, Prediction and Inference strategy, the students would be
effectively and automatically combine the text and their background knowledge to
make good inferences and predictions. Prediction and Inference strategy facilitate
the students to set up the purpose of reading and anticipate what the students will
read. It can be concluded that Prediction and Inference strategy is an appropriate
strategy to teach reading comprehension in order to help the students building
their thinking process in comprehending the text.
The previous research by Thomas (2005) in ESL students’ classroom.
Prediction and inference used as a strategy to build the students’ comprehension
in balancing the author’s use of words with their forecast and linking a new

5

concept with their implicit or personal knowledge. Another research by Baretta et,
al (2009) proved that students in University of Auckland, New Zealand who
taught by using inference strategy significantly better in comprehending reading
expository text than when reading narrative text. The students generally bridging
inferences more easily and were better of judging the unsuitability of expository
text. In addition Linda (2007) concluded that prediction and inference strategy has
significantly affected the students in sixth-graders from two Canadian urban
centers in reading comprehension by establishing textual coherence or
embellishing meaning in the text.
Based on the explanation above, the researcher was interested in
conducting a study by applying Prediction and Inference Strategy on students’
reading comprehension in analytical exposition text.

B. The Problems of the Study
Based on the background of the study, the research problem of this study
was formulated as the following: “Is there any significant effect of prediction and
inference strategy on students’ reading comprehension in analytical exposition
text?”

C. The Objectives of the Study
The objective of this study was to investigate whether there is a significant
effect of Prediction and Inference strategy on students’ reading comprehension in
analytical exposition text.

6

D. The Scope of the Study
There were several strategies that can be used to improve reading
comprehension. In this study, the writer only focused on applying Prediction and
Inference strategy on students’ reading comprehension in analytical exposition
text.

E. The Significance of the Study
The findings of this study are expected to be useful as,
a.

Theoretically, the findings of this study are expected to enhance the
theories of reading comprehension.

b. Practically, the findings of this study is expected to give feedback to:
1.

English teachers, they can use this strategy as a reference in
teaching reading to improve the students’ reading comprehension
especially analytical exposition text.

2.

Other researchers, this research can be as reference in doing
research related to this study to improve the ability of the students
in reading comprehension and explore the aims of prediction and
inference strategy in reading comprehension of analytical
exposition text.

CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION

A. Conclusion
Based on the data analysis, it is concluded that applying prediction and
inference strategy significantly affects the students’ reading comprehension in
reading analytical exposition text. Thus, the students’ score in experimental group
was higher than the students score in control group. The calculation of the data in
the testing hypothesis showed that t-observed 4.29 was higher than t-table 2.000,
it means that the alternative hypothesis (Ha) is acceptable.

B. Suggestions
This study showed that reading comprehension by using prediction and
inference strategy could improve students’ reading comprehension in analytical
exposition text. In relation above, some suggestions are offered as the following:
1. Since Prediction and Inference strategy is significantly effective, it is
suggested that the teacher should apply this strategy in teaching process in
order to improve students’ reading comprehension in analytical exposition
text.
2. It is suggested that the further researcher apply this strategy to other skill
or text genre and to identify the weakness of the current research and make
improvement of applying prediction and inference strategy.

51

52

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