changes in precipitations increase or decrease. Based on data from the IPCC 2007, a majority of models indicate an increase in precipitation across the seasons in high latitudes
and in some of the monsoon regimes including South Asian monsoon in June, July, August and Australian monsoon in December, January, February. In mid latitudes a widespread
decrease of summer precipitation has been predicted except for increases in eastern Asia. The models further converge in their predictions of major decreases in precipitation across the
subtropics. A particularly pronounced decrease in precipitation has been predicted for the Caribbean and Mediterranean regions. Thus, traditional and indigenous peoples living across
the Caribbean and Mediterranean regions, parts of Brazil, southern Chile and Argentina, southern Africa and large parts of Australia are expected to face increasing freshwater stress
over the course of this century, putting them at severe risk. Increases in precipitation over 20 have been projected for most high latitudes, as well as in eastern Africa, central Asia and
the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Since not only decreases but also increases in precipitation - especially extreme events including droughts or floods - have implications on traditional and
indigenous peoples’ livelihoods, groups living in the mentioned ‘risk areas’ will have to adapt their livelihoods to new environmental conditions.
3.2 Projected Global Changes in Temperature
Figure 3 Multi-model mean of annual mean surface warming for the time period 2080 to 2099
Changes in temperature are easier to project because temperature in contrast to precipitation is a large-scale continuous variable Frame, 2007. However, a certain degree of uncertainty still
persists. Nevertheless, according to the data published by the IPCC 2007, very likely global climate change will cause higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all
land areas. Furthermore there will be higher minimum temperatures and fewer cold and frosty days. The biggest changes in surface temperature are expected to happen in high latitudes as
well as in the interior of the continents. That is, throughout the USA and Canada, across Bolivia and Brazil, in the Mediterranean region especially in the north-western African
states, in southern Africa around the Kalahari Desert, across the Arabian Peninsula, the Tibetan plateau as well as north-west Australia.
It is noticeable that many of the regions of greatest change in surface temperature coincide with the regions of greatest decrease in precipitation as shown in Figure 2. Hence, indigenous
and traditional groups living in these areas, namely the Caribbean region, the Mediterranean
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region and the Middle East, southern Africa and great parts of Australia will not only have to cope with increasing water stress but also with rising surface temperatures.
3.3 Projected global changes in sea level
Figure 4. Local sea level change m during the 21st century
As with precipitation, models predicting sea level change vary and there is currently no consensus on the magnitude of the dynamical processes which are influencing sea level rise.
Therefore, it would not be meaningful to pinpoint individual groups which are going to be affected or at risk by sea level rise. However, again it is possible to identify the areas of
projected greatest change. Most pronounced change in sea level is projected to take place in the Arctic. Other areas of interest where sea level is expected to rise within a range of 0 -0.2m
are situated along the Asian and African coastlines as well as parts of the South and North American Atlantic coastline. Sea level rise is expected to have especially serious impacts
along the low lying coastline of the Indian states Gujarat and Kerala, the Bay of Bengal as well as around the Korean peninsula and Japan. Furthermore, island states across the world
are expected to be at risk, namely low lying parts of Madagascar, Sri Lanka and the Pacific Island states. Among these, especially small island states, which contain a high proportion of
the world’s linguistic and cultural diversity, are at risk.
3.4 Conclusion
