Together We Build a Better Future
2
1. SEMEN INDONESIA 27.7 mn ton
- Semen Padang : 6.4 mn ton
- Semen Gresik : 14.0 mn ton
- Semen Tonasa : 7.3 mn ton
2. Semen Andalas
2
1.6 mn ton 3. Semen Baturaja
1.3 mn ton 4. Indocement TP
20.5 mn ton 5. Holcim Indonesia 10.4 mn ton
6. Semen Bosowa 3.6 mn ton
7. Semen Kupang 0.5 mn ton
TOTAL 65.6 mn ton
• Design Capacity : 60.2 mio tons
65.6 mio tons 74.0 mio tons
• Production Capacity : 54.2 mio tons 60.7 mio tons
66.6 mio tons • Domestic Growth
: 14.5 10.0
9.0 • Domestic Utilization : 98
100 99
•Supply
Domestic : 54.9 mio tons
60.5 mio tons 65.9 mio tons
Export : 0.2 mio tons
0.5 mio tons 0.2 mio tons
Import : 0.7 mio tons
2
3.0 mio tons
3
3.0 mio tons
3
1 Based on the Company’s forecast
2 Imported cement by PT Semen Andalas 1.0 mio ton and clinker by Bosawa and Kupang 3 Imported cement clinker
Singapore Kuala
Lumpur
SMGR
2
1
3 4
5
1 1
6
7
DOMESTIC CAPACITY 2013 CEMENT INDUSTRY
2012 2013F
1
2014F
1
2
Together We Build a Better Future
‘000 tons
ton ‘000 2012
2013F 2014F
2015F 2016F
2017F Installed Capacity
60,270 66,420
69,520 79,020
93,070 108,570
Real Production 54,243
61,106 63,958
72,698 79,110
98,073 Consumption
54,964 60,460
65,902 71,833
78,298 85,345
Surplusdeficit 721
646 1,943
865 812
12,728 Domestic Utilization
100 99
100 99
100 87
Export 200
200 200
200 200
200 Domestic
Consumption Growth 14.5
10 9
9 9
9
3
20.000 40.000
60.000 80.000
100.000 120.000
2012 2013F
2014F 2015F
2016F 2017F
Installed Capacity Real Production
Consumption
Together We Build a Better Future
4
New Cement Capacity from Potential Foreign and Domestic Players By 2017 No
Company Targeted Plant
Location Capacity
mn tons Pot. to be impl.
mn tons Investment
US mn Remarks + Local Partner
1 Siam Cement Thailand
West Java 1.8
1.8 360
Greenfield, Sukabumi 2
CNBM China Central Java
2.4 350
Greenfield, Semen Grobogan 3
Semen Merah Putih Wilmar Banten
11.5 4.5
n.a Greenfield PT Cemindo Gemilang
– Commercial
4 Anhui Conch Cement China
- Tanjung - Tanah Grogot
- Pontianak - West Papua
Various - South Kalimantan
- East Kalimantan - West Kalimantan
- West Papua 13.7
3.8 3.8
3.8 2.4
3.8 2,350
400 600
600 750
Greenfield Greenfield
Greenfield Greenfield
Greenfield
5 Ultratech
Wonogiri, Central Java 4.5
827 Greenfield
6 Semen Puger
East Java 0.6
n.a Upgrading
7 Semen Barru
South Sulawesi 3.3
470 Greenfield Barru, South Sulawesi
8 Semen Panasia
Central Java 2.0
2.0 240
Greenfield Banyumas
T O T A L 40.3
12.1 4,470
New Cement Capacity from Existing Players 2013 – 2017
No Company
Targeted Plant Location Capacity
mn tons Investment
US mn Remarks
1 Semen Indonesia
Java, Sumatera, Sulawesi 11.5
970 Upgrading + greenbrownfield
2 Indocement
Java, Kalimantan 8.8
1,560 E Cement Mill + browngreenfield
3 Holcim
East Java 3.8
680 E BrownGreenfield
4 Bosowa
Java, Sulawesi 7.9
620 Cement Mill + Brownfield
5 Semen Andalas
Sumatera 1.6
300 Greenfield
6 Semen Baturaja
Sumatera 2.6
325 GreenfieldBrownfield
T O T A L 36.2
4,130
Together We Build a Better Future
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Source: Deutsche, Indonesia Cement Association
223
kg
200 400
600 800
1.000 1.200
1.400 1.600
1.800
C hin
a Si
nga po
re M
ala ys
ia Vi
etn am
Th aila
nd In
do ne
sia Ph
ilippi ne
s In
di a
kgcapita
Together We Build a Better Future
Source: Indonesian Cement Association BPS Statistic
Growth :
1.1
Growth :
9.7
Growth :
4.2
Growth :
1.8
Growth :
6.6
Growth :
5.8
Growth :
19.4
Domestic consumption LHS GDP growth RHS
mio tons
40.8 48.0
54.9
22.9 39.1
27.2 27.5
30.2 31.5
32.1 34.2
38.1
6.10
6.00 6.80
5.6
4.7 5.1
5.4
4.4 6.3
6.1 4.60
6.50
7.2 14.5
6.0 11.5
4.2 9.7
2.5 6.6
1.8 1.1
5.8 17.7
0.0 10.0
20.0 30.0
40.0 50.0
60.0
2002 2003
2004 2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010 2011
2012 5M2013
0.0 10.0
20.0
Cement growth RHS
A
6
GROWTH
Together We Build a Better Future
21.0
6.5 18.1
1.0 16.9
1.9 20.0
2.3 22.7
3.0 23.7
3.5 23.7
3.8 25.2
5.0 25.5
6.0 26.9
5.1 28.2
6.0 32.2
5.9 32.8
6.2 34.2
6.6 39.2
8.8 44.1
10.8 18.2
4.7
5 10
15 20
25 30
35 40
45
1997 1999
2001 2003
2005 2007
2009 2011
5M2013
Bagged Cement Bulk Cement
Bag and Bulk cement consumption million tons
7
Source: Indonesia Cement Association and the Company’s data
Together We Build a Better Future
Retail residential sector is the largest consumer of cement in Indonesia
8
Bag
80
Bulk 20
Key Drivers of Domestic cement demand:
• National Economic Growth • Favorable Interest Rate Environment
• Infrastructure Expansion • Per Capita Consumption increase from
current low levels
•
Ready-mix infrastructure:
±
60
•
Fabricator pre-cast, fiber cement, cement based industry:
±
35
•
Projects mortar, render:
±
5
•
Housing:
±
90
•
Cement based industry:
±
10
± ±
Source: Internal Research
Together We Build a Better Future
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MARKET UPDATE
SMGR Corporate Presentation June 2013
Together We Build a Better Future
Papua Bali N T
Kalimantan
Sulawesi
Population Distribution 2012
Sumatera 21.3
Java 57.5.
8.4 5.8
5.5 1.5
10
REGION
MARKET SHARE
SMGR
INTP SMCB BSWA ANDLS BTRJA KPG
1. JAVA
39.1
40.5 18.4
2.0 -
- -
2. SUMATERA
45.5
13.0 13.8
3.0 16.0
9.0 -
3. SULAWESI
64.1
14.8 0.9
20.0 -
- -
4. KALIMANTAN
51.0
28.6 11.3
9.0 -
- -
5. NUSA TENGGR.
41.9
31.8 3.7
16.5 -
- 6.0
6. EASTERN IND.
53.6
24.3 0.8
21.1 -
-
TOTAL INDONESIA
43.7
30.9 14.3
