6 A The Philippines Employment Projections Model: Employment targeting and scenarios‎ - 0.9 MB‎

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C 8 C C C 6 6 6 6 68 6 0 A ? , 0, 4 . . ; , C , ; ,8 ? A A E C C ,C C C C , C 8 6, 6 6 6 6, 6 Source: PEPM 2012 32 Another large occupational group is that of officials of government, special interest organizations, corporate executives, managers, managing proprietors and supervisors. This group accounted for nearly 14 per cent of employment in 2010, with some 5 million workers figure 16. By 2016, it is projected to account for nearly 15 per cent of employment or 6 million workers. The largest subgroup within this occupational group consists of general managers and managing proprietors approximately 4 million workers in 2010, or four out of five of the occupational groups’ workers. This is worth noting because the subgroup includes both managers of large firms and SMEs in the formal sector, as well as micro-enterprises run by own-account workers, often in the informal sector. Although this occupational subgroup is associated with a higher skills level, 34 workers in this group may differ significantly in actual levels of educational attainment and working conditions. General managers and managing proprietors is the subgroup projected to have the fasted annual growth rate over the forecast period 3.4 per cent for the occupational group, while supervisors are projected to have the lowest annual growth rate with 2.9 per cent table 14. The general managers and managing proprietors subgroup is projected to account for the largest absolute increase in employment, with more than 900 thousand additional workers by 2016 figure 18. Nearly 1.7 million professionals and some 950 thousand technicians and associate professionals were employed in 2010, representing respectively 4.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent of workers in the Philippines figure 16. By 2016, over 2.1 million professionals and 1.1 million technicians and associate professionals are projected to be employed. Professionals’ share in employment would therefore increase to 5.1 per cent, and that of technicians and associate professionals would increase to 2.8 per cent by 2016. Employment growth in this occupational group is projected to be driven primarily by rapid growth in the teaching professionals and associates professionals’ subgroups table 14. In particular, the teaching professionals’ subgroup is the occupational subgroup with the highest projected employment growth rate over the forecast period figure 17 and is also among the top 10 occupational subgroups in terms of employment generation potential, with nearly 300 thousand additional workers by 2016 figure 18. Note that the other professional and associate professional subgroups are also among the 10 subgroups with highest employment growth rate projections over the forecast period figure 17, but are not as prominent in terms of projected net employment generation not among the top 10 in terms of number of jobs created, figure 18. These trends seem broadly in line with shifts in the occupational distribution towards higher-skilled occupations in many developing economies, despite the fact that these jobs still account for a relatively low share in employment ILO, 2011b. In terms of employment generation, the top 10 occupational subgroups include several other subgroups in the services sector, specifically: models, salespersons and demonstrators more than 460 thousand additional workers by 2016, personal and protective services 380 thousand additional workers, and office clerks approximately 230 thousand additional workers figure 18. Among industry sector occupations, the subgroup with the largest employment generation potential is that of drivers and mobile plant operators, with more than 320 thousand additional workers by 2016 figure 18. 34 See Section 2.1 for a discussion of skills issues. 33 Figure 17 Average annual employment growth - 2010-2016 - Top 10 occupational subgroups 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Teaching Professionals Customer Services Clerks Models, Salespersons and Demonstrators Related Associate Professionals Teaching Associate Professionals General Managers or Managing-Proprietors Other Professionals Corporate Exec. Spec. Managers Office Clerks Physicists, Math Engineering Professionals Source: PEPM 2012 Figure 18 Employment growth thousands - 2010-2016 - Top 10 occupational subgroups 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 General Managers or Managing-Proprietors Sales and Services Elementary Occupations Models, Salespersons and Demonstrators Agric., Forest., Fishery Related Laborers Personal and Protective Service Workers Drivers and Mobile Plant Operators Farmers and Other Plant Growers Laborers in Mining, Cons., Manuf. and Transport Teaching Professionals Office Clerks Source: PEPM 2012 34

2. Policy scenarios and applications