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1. The Philippines Employment Projections Model PEPM
1.1. Background of the work
The ILO Employment Trends team has worked in collaboration with Inforum
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University of Maryland to develop EPMs for a number of developing countries. EPMs vary in complexity and sophistication, depending on data availability and quality, as well as
on resources involved in developing them. Models developed thus far for Ukraine,
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Viet Nam,
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Mongolia
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and the Philippines can be considered as basic-to-intermediate models having some elements associated with each of the two levels of sophistication.
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Of these four countries however, the Philippines has the most extensive data and therefore a slightly
more sophisticated model. The development of the Philippines Employment Projections Model was
commissioned by the ILO Country Office for the Philippines in September 2010. The model was developed in Stata software, using the ILO Trends – Inforum methodology El
Achkar, 2012. The initial version of the model was presented during a 7-day workshop held in Manila in November 2010, which aimed to introduce participants to EPMs and
improve their capacity to use these analytical tools for more informed employment policymaking. Initial results were used as inputs for preparing the Philippines Development
Plan PDP 2011-2016.
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The model was subsequently updated and expanded in July 2011, and presented in August 2011 during a second 5-day workshop in Manila, which included
an appreciation seminar for social partners, with tripartite representation.
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The most recent version of the PEPM, which is presented in this paper, has been updated in May 2012. In addition, this version was validated in Stata by Inforum Meade,
2012, and results of this validation have been incorporated. The models developed by Inforum use a software framework called G7, which is the statistical estimation and time
series program developed and distributed by Inforum. Building on G7, Interdyme is the framework for building employment projection models. In comparison with Stata, the
G7Interdyme modeling framework has several advantages and disadvantages. G7 is a flexible, interactive, easy to use free software program that provides powerful capabilities
for the manipulation and viewing of scalar, vector and matrix variables in a time-series. However, the concepts of model building in G7Interdyme are difficult, and Stata is more
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Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, has been developing
employment projection models for over 20 years. The Inforum group has a network of partners in different countries
that use a common methodology and software. For more information, see http:www.inforum.umd.edu
.
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See Meade 2008.
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See Meade 2010 and Viet Nam Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs 2011.
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See El Achkar Hilal 2011.
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Data requirements for three levels of sophistication of employment projection models basic, intermediate and advanced are explained in Werling and Meade 2010.
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The PDP 2011-2016 is available at: http:www.neda.gov.phPDP2011-2016default.asp
.
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Workshop participants included officials from the Department of Labour and Employment DOLE – specifically the Institute for Labour Studies ILS and the Bureau for Labour and Employment Statistics
BLES within DOLE – the National Statistics Office NSO, the National Economic Development Authority NEDA, the National Statistical Coordination Bureau NSCB and the Department of Trade and
Investment DTI.
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familiar to many economic and labour market analysts. Although Stata was primarily designed as statistical software, the features are sufficiently flexible to enable the creation
of datasets that can implement vectors or matrices of data over time.
1.2. Brief description of the model
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