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The Government of Colombia has designed several initiatives for the development of road infrastructure in the Amazon, including “Programa corredores arteriales
complementarios de competitividad” “Complementary Arterial Corridors for Competitiveness Program in English, which involves the construction of seven
corridors in the Colombian Amazon in order to improve the accessibility conditions of the municipalities where agricultural output is the economic mainstay.
Additionally, the government is planning some infrastructure projects in the border areas between Ecuador and Peru, with a view to improve the access, transport of
cargo and passengers and finally contribute to better integration and regional development Fundación Alisios, 2011. It has not been evaluated; however, whether
the construction or improvement of all the roads mentioned above has had any effects on food security in the region. One can assume that access to food is likely to
have improved, indicating once more the trade-offs between environmental conservation and social and economic development.
6.2. Climate Change
Predicting the future climate of the Amazon region is a hugely complex process that involves an inherent level of uncertainty. Global Climate models GCMs are one of
the primary instruments used to project future climates Wilby and Harris, 2006. Malhi et al. 2009 notes that projecting changes in precipitation in the Amazon
remain particularly challenging for climate models, and substantial variation between the models exists Malhi .et al, 2009. The Hadley model HadCM3, for
example, produces the driest future conditions, with a substantially reduced rainfall regime Malhi et al., 2009. Such a reduction in rainfall would likely change the
composition of the Amazon, and may result in a transition to a seasonal forest biome Malhi et al., 2009. Other four models suggest that future climate conditions
would struggle to maintain the current rainforest biome Malhi et al., 2009. One means of testing GCMs is to push the models to simulate current conditions.
Malhi et al. 2009 found that 17 of the 19 models substantially underestimated current rainfall in the Amazon. This discrepancy between the observed climate and
the simulated GCMs in the Amazon region has led some to suggest that there is particular uncertainty in projecting the future climate of Amazonia Malhi et al.,
2009. Hence, feeding information back into policy and providing informative scientific evidence, which could be used to mitigating climate change impacts on
food security, remains difficult partially due to the large discrepancy between the GCMs and the high levels of uncertainty.
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In spite of above, Betts et al. 2008 noted that the 23 GCMs employed by IPCC provide general climatic trends. For instance, based on mid-range climate
projection, 50 to 70 of the models revealed a substantial 20 reduction in dry season rainfall in the eastern region of the Amazon Betts et al. 2009, with the
potential that the future biome may be seasonal forest Malhi et al., 2009. This scenario could potentially affect regional production of maize, sorghum, soybean and
rice Figure 6. On the other hand, the western Amazon is likely to be comparatively wetter with climatic conditions that maintain a future rainforest biome Malhi et
al., 2009. Furthermore, the Amazon region will warm, although predictions for the range of temperature increase by the end of the century varies in the order of 5
° C
Betts et al., 2008. To provide an insight into the future climate projections, the A1B scenario IPCC,
2000 was run for all 24 GCMs for the year 2050. The average was calculated for both mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature Figure 19. Based
on the average of all 24 GCM models, precipitation declines in the eastern Amazon, while areas in the western Amazon experience precipitation increases 2050. The
mean of the 24 models reveals an increase of temperatures ranging from a minimum of 1.98°C to a maximum of 3.01°C. These results reflect the general
consensus in the literature identify a drying of the eastern Amazon region Malhi and Wright, 2004; Nepstad et al., 2008.
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Figure 19. Projected change in future precipitation and temperature 2050 for
Amazonia. Source: CIAT, 2013 Land use change e.g. deforestation or forest fragmentation and human pressures
are affecting the ecosystem services and longevity of the Amazon rainforest. As a result, severe social, economic and environmental repercussions may ensue Malhi
et al., 2009; Nepstad et al., 2008; Cochrane and Laurance, 2008; Laurance and Williamson, 2001. Fire, due to its capacity to facilitate drought events and change
regional climatic cycles, could be exacerbated by global warming. It has been identified as one of the major threats facing the Amazon Basin Nepstad et al.,
2008; Malhi et al., 2009. Currently, 20 million hectares of previously forested area in the Amazon basin are prepared for agriculture using burning techniques
Cochrane and Laurance, 2008. Forest fires reduce the density of the canopy, which increases solar heating and air
flow at the forest floor level, while leaf litter and other organic matter are dried and can then become ignition sources for future fires Cochrane and Laurance, 2008;
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Laurance and Williamson, 2001. Furthermore, forest fires release smoke into the atmosphere producing an increase in aerosol content Malhi et al, 2009; Nepstad et
al, 2001. There evidence suggests that rainfall may reduce in the dry season Malhi et al., 2009, and could increase the future likelihood of drought events Malhi et al.,
2009. Drought and fire episodes are interconnected Nepstad et al., 2001. For example, a severe drought that occurred in 1998 an El Niño year was accompanied
by severe reductions in forested area 39,000 km
2
, accumulating in a rate of forest loss 13 times greater than that recorded in an average rainfall year Alencar et al.,
2006. In total 91 of the forest area lost to burning in the Brazilian Amazon was within 4 km of agricultural clearings Alencar et al., 2006.
Under natural conditions the Amazon has a low chance of fire occurrence Sanford et al., 1985. This is despite evidence that parts of the Amazon can become
temporary flammable during dry spells. However, a lack of ignition sources ensures that natural fires are uncommon Malhi et al., 2009. Meggers 1994 noted that fire
occurrences in intact Amazon forest were generally related to uncharacteristically severe El Niño-Southern Oscillation ENSO occurring every 400 to 700 years. A
large proportion of tree species in the Amazon consequently possess limited resilience to fire, and therefore, even low intensity fires can have devastating effects
Cochrane and Schulze, 1999. It is worth highlighting that the ENSO significantly affects the rainfall patterns in
the Amazon basin Coe et al., 2002. During an El Niño year sea surface temperatures rise along the Pacific coast of South America, which can result in
higher temperatures, reduced precipitation Nepstad et al., 2008, and decreased flow of the Amazon River and its major tributaries Foley et al., 2002. On the other
hand, wetter conditions, increased river flow and flooding are often found during La Niña years an anomaly of unusually cold sea surface temperatures found in the
eastern tropical Pacific Foley et al., 2002. The worst droughts have been recorded in the Amazon in El Niño years, such as the 1998 drought that facilitated large
scale occurrences of forest fires Nepstad et al., 1999. Furthermore, in El Niño years the dry hot conditions cause the Amazon to act as a source of carbon. Tian et
al., 1998 found that up to 0.2 pg of carbon were released by the Amazon in 1987 and 1992, whilst in wetter and cooler years the Amazon acts as a carbon sink, for
example up to 0.7 pg of carbon were sequestered in 1981 and 1993. Drought events and El Niño years can have severe environmental, economic and
social impacts and the frequency and severity of such events may increase with global warming Timmerman et al., 1999; Hansen et al., 2006. The last several
50
decades have seen a number of severe drought events. The 2005 drought, which was not due to El Niño, but an extended dry season, caused widespread economic and
social damage throughout the Amazon basin Morengo et al., 2013. The drought reduced the flow of the Amazon River, and problems with navigation and trade
were reported in the Madeira, upper and central reaches of the Amazon Morengo et al., 2005. Small-scale farmers and communities reliant on river networks for
commerce experienced severe economic losses Morengo et al., 2013. Furthermore, generation of hydroelectricity and agricultural production were also reduced
Morengo, et al, 2013. Coffee was the most affected crop in Rondonia, Brazil, a Department in southwestern Amazonia Figure 1. With production in 2005 75
and 2006 82 substantially reduced, the State of Acre Figure 1, also witnessed a notable decline in total coffee production 15 in 2006 Morengo et al., 2013.
Fisheries in the Amazon were also affected. For example, the western Amazon states of Rondonia roughly 50, Amazonas -7.2 and Acre witnessed substantial
reductions in fish catches in the year 2005 compared to 2004 Morengo et al., 2013. Furthermore, food shortages affected many people in the Amazon basin and smoke
from forest fires resulted in an increase in respiratory problems for peoples living in the basin Morengo et al., 2013. In Acre, hospital admissions for respiratory
problems and water borne diseases increased from June to December 2005, which was the drought period Morengo et al., 2013.
Global warming will likely increase the frequency and severity of droughts due to the expected rise in temperatures and increase in the length and severity of the dry
season IPCC, 2007. Although hard to predict, there are suggestions that future agricultural productivity could be affected by adverse climatic conditions. For
example, Lapola et al., 2011 found soybean yield may reduce by up to 40 under the worst-case scenario. Rising temperatures, low rainfall and further water
scarcity could reduce bananaplantain, grains cereals and legumes and coffee outputs Ortiz, 2011 and references therein. The combination therefore of burning
for agricultural purposes, pressures from deforestation and selective logging, and an increase in drought frequency Eduardo et al., 2007, requires policy measures that
are holistic and incorporate sustainable agriculture within a framework that ensures the continued functioning of Amazonia’s ecosystem services.
Table 4 lists various stress conditions related to climate change to be faced by the diverse Amazon smallholders. The intensity level of each stress will affect their food
security, credit debt, health or housing, and may lead to social violence.
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Table 4. Stress conditions associated to climate change faced by Amazon farmer
and their respective vulnerability types Stress
related to
climate change
Vulnerability types
Extreme drought Planting time and risk of ‘seasonal trap’,
loss of
crops and
productivity, flammability of land cover, water quantity
and quality, infectious and non-infectious diseases
Extreme flooding
level variation
Residency pattern, access fishing and planting grounds, transportation and
access to market, water quantity and quality, infectious diseases
Accidental fire Neighbor conflicts, risk invested capital,
flammability of land cover, biodiversity loss,
non-infectious and
respiratory diseases
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7. FOOD SECURITY THREATS TO DIFFERENT AMAZONIAN POPULATIONS
There are almost 39 million people living in the Amazon. Most of them are in Brazil approximately 75 and Peru around 11. The highest population growth rate
has been registered in urban areas, especially in Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador, but also Bolivia and Peru.
While consumption patterns of urban population are largely determined by a globalized market, rural people find their source in proteins in hunted wild animals,
after fish
8
. The increase in population density in urban areas and the trade to supply large population centers, has lead to a decrease in the diversity and density
of larger animals ACTO 1997. There are various indigenous groups whose settlements are located in deep forests
and their dependence on forest products timber and non-timber is high. Unlike urban communities whose living is closely tied to income and purchasing power,
their subsistence depends on the availability of and access to natural resources e.g. water or land that are considered a collective right. About 3 of the total
population belongs to 40 indigenous populations. They group in around 420 different ethnicities and speak 86 distinct languages UNEP et al., 2009. Figure 20
illustrates the number of inhabitants and indigenous populations living in the Amazon.
8
Fishing has sustaining, commercial and ornamental purposes. Fishing for livelihoods is characterized by its wide dispersal and use of small boats and gear simple. This activity is combined with agriculture and varies according to
the hydrological cycle, bio-ecology of fish and seasonal needs of agricultural products. Commercial fishing involves the use of large vessels, massive nets and insulated boxes to preserve fresh fish with ice and supply the cities. The
activity is influenced by seasonality, variety and productivity of ecosystems, they limit or allow greater access to fishery resources, and determine fishermen to alternate fishing with livestock, agriculture and mining. Ornamental
fishery is highly specialized and is characterized by continuous changes caused by the market. Ornamental fish live in creeks, streams and lakes, in environments different from the species used for human consumption ACTO, 1997.
