More acute impacts on health and the poor

2.6 More acute impacts on health and the poor

Urban centres may be particularly vulnerable to some of the distributive impacts of climate change. Poor populations in both rich and poor nations are expected to be the most vulnerable to climate change in part due to the lack of resources and capacity to respond in a timely manner or to adapt or to move to less vulnerable areas. As Hurricane Katrina demonstrated, climate extremes may hit wealthy nations but can

still fall the hardest on the poor, 34 who lack the resources to respond quickly and effectively to protect themselves from extreme weather patterns. The urban poor may also be more exposed to flooding, since

they are likely to occupy the cheapest land, sometimes illegally, or reside in floodplain areas such as the

Dharavi slums in Mumbai or the New Orleans’ 9 35 Ward. They are also more vulnerable as they may use cheaper materials to build dwellings, often violating building or safety codes. This may increase

th

vulnerability to storms or natural disasters as was shown by the collapsed structures from Hurricane Mitch (1998) (OECD, 2009b). Where a city’s low level of development does not allow for expensive infrastructure investments or institutional capacity to protect the population adequately, a vicious cycle of vulnerability and poverty may result (Ibarrarán et al., 2009). Climate change can also have a disproportionately more severe impact on other more vulnerable members of the urban population, such as on women, the very young, the elderly and people whose health is already compromised (Ruth & Ibarrarán, 2009).

Local strategies to reduce GHG emissions can also contribute to urban inequality. For example, the swift application of a transportation tax could have redistributive effects in urban areas by placing a larger burden on residents living farther from city centres, including those who have located there because affordable housing is unavailable closer; the impact may be lessened through a more incremental approach. Rising energy costs may incentivize behaviour that reduces GHG emissions, but higher costs leave those with little income to invest in energy efficiency measures exposed to higher energy prices. On the other hand, as the poor spend a greater share of the income on energy costs, they can disproportionately benefit from energy-efficiency programmes (Hallegatte et al., 2008). And, given their disproportionate vulnerability to climate change impacts, mitigation policies’ benefits can outweigh their costs to poor residents.

Climate change can also impact cities by increasing rural-urban migration. According to the International Federation of the Red Cross, climate change disasters are now a bigger cause of population displacement than war and persecution. 36 Estimates of the number of refugees currently displaced for

reasons attributable to climate change currently range from 25 million to 50 million, compared to an official global refugee population of 20.8 million (Kamal-Chaoui in OECD, 2008a). 37

A decrease in income in the agricultural sector due to a climate-related decrease in production could lead agricultural workers to migrate to the city in search of work. Rapid and unmanaged growth in urban populations can strain the availability of housing and basic infrastructures (particularly water and sanitation), increasing the potential for negative health impacts and vulnerability to natural disasters (Hallegatte et al., 2008).

33. Sailor (2001) cited in Ruth & Gasper in OECD (2008a).

34. Mathew (2007) cited in OECD (2009b).

35. Corfee-Morlot et al. (2009) cited in OECD (2009b).

36. www.ifrc.org/what/disasters/about/factors/climate.asp.

37. These figures exclude environmental refugees.