Fund for REDD+ Indonesia FREDDI

26 27 Based on the data above, around 45 US699.7 million of the planned budget should be allocated for the land-based mitigation window, primarily to support Indonesia’s efforts in reducing emissions from deforestation and land degradation, and sustainable land-use planning. Currently, the ICCTF is supporting the implementation of several projects in Indonesia, such as sustainable management of degraded peatland in ive provinces to mitigate GHG emissions and optimise crop productivity Thamrin, 2014. These projects will support the achievement of Indonesia’s target for reducing emissions but are not intended to generate emission reduction units that could be sold on the carbon market. However, the fact that the ICCTF has, to date, secured less than 1 of its target budget for 2012-2020 raises questions about its ability to achieve the desired scale and impact. Nevertheless, several ministerial representatives consulted for this study cited ICCTF as needing support and proposed it as a serious candidate for managing REDD+ interim forest inance.

3.4.2 Joint Crediting Mechanism JCM

The Joint Crediting Mechanism JCM between Indonesia and Japan is a cooperation proposal from Japan to Indonesia and other developing countries. This mechanism supports emission reduction targets in both countries and strengthens bilateral investment cooperation Carbon Trade Mechanism Division, 2013. Japan and Indonesia mutually recognised that veriied reductions or removals from the mitigation projects under the JCM could be used as a part of their own internationally pledged greenhouse gases mitigation efforts. The two countries work in close cooperation to facilitate inancial, technological and capacity building support necessary for the implementation of the JCM JCM, 2013. The JCM star ts its operation as a non-tradable credit type mechanism and both countries will continue consultation for transition to a tradable credit type mechanism. Indonesia and Japan agreed that the JCM will be valid until a new international framework under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC becomes operational JCM, 2013. The JCM scope of activities will include various sectors, namely energy, construction, transport, mining, waste and agriculture Carbon, 2013. REDD+ is also within the potential scope of the JCM, and feasibility studies were conducted for over 19 REDD+ related projects in Indonesia. However, no REDD+ projects have been selected under this mechanism due to a lack of demand for REDD+ credits and an unclear methodology. Furthermore, the JCM emphasises a focus on the creation and transfer of new technology to tackle climate issues. Therefore, at the time of writing, the JCM does not serve to address the lack of demand or inance for REDD+ emission reductions. system. Risk is reduced through this portfolio approach, because if one project fails there are others through which to provide the credits. This risk reduction could also enable a higher price to be sought for the carbon, which beneits the producers of carbon credits. The aim is for the performance aggregation modality to result in a win-win-win situation: buyers get security of supply, sellers receive a higher price and intermediaries get a steady margin. The Indonesian government is proposing this direct purchasing of forest carbon offsets in part to address the lack of market demand for REDD+ emission reductions that is creating inancial obstacles to development of new projects. Agus Sari stated that this modality will only become active once the carbon market is more developed and is unlikely to be active prior to 20152016. There are also a number of regulatory requirements and operational structures that need to be in place before Modality 3 could launch. The establishment of FREDDI is supported by the inance provided in the Norway-Indonesia LoI. Agus Sari projects that up to US10 billion until 2020 will be required by FREDDI to inance the planned emission reductions from forests and peatland. Of that, US1 billion will come from Norway, US2 billion is anticipated to come from further public sources and the remaining US7 billion will come from the private sector. In the medium term, it is intended that FREDDI will be capitalised by all sectors, including domestic and international, public and private sector sources. FREDDI is expected to encourage domestic private investment to play a signiicant role. The subsidiary funds under FREDDI provide an opportunity to establish a inancial collaboration structure that will support the mobilisation of new funds. The subsidiary funds can be special purpose vehicle companies, fund managers or collective investment agreements. The REDD+ Managing Agency is responsible for deining the strategic direction of FREDDI, including outlining the thematic focus of its activities. However, since the REDD+ Managing Agency was established as a non-departmental government institution, at present it does not have the legal right to manage the fund. Revision to Presidential Regulation No.802011 is required to provide a legal basis for operational control of FREDDI by the REDD+ Managing Agency. A key priority is for the REDD+ Managing Agency to work closely with 3.4.3 Fund for REDD+ Indonesia FREDDI 12 As part of Indonesia’s commitments under the Norway- Indonesia Letter of Intent LoI, and in line with the National REDD+ Strategy, Indonesia is establishing the Fund for REDD+ in Indonesia FREDDI, a REDD+ inance instrument charged with managing, channelling and mobilising REDD+ funding. The fund will be expected to channel both international and domestic inancial support, including leveraging private sector investment through carbon trading instruments, commodities markets, and inancial and capital markets REDD+ Task Force, 2012. FREDDI will be established as a trust fund, with a ‘fund of funds’ structure, in line with Government Regulation No.102011 on Procedures for Procurement of Foreign Loans and Grants and Presidential Regulation No.802011 on Trust Funds. A fund of funds is a multi-level inancing structure where the main trust fund can invest in any of the subsidiary funds. FREDDI is designed to channel funds through four funding windows: national programs, subnational programs, competitive call programs, and small grants. With regards to boosting demand for REDD+ emission reductions, the competitive call programme will promote sustainable forest and land use management that results in emission reductions. FREDDI is expected to apply three modalities for deploying inance Sari, 2014: Modality 1: Grants Ex-ante grants will follow the traditional grant model, with funds provided prior to the implementation of activities. However, ex- post payments are expected to constitute the majority of grant inance. These will be performance-based grant payments, with results measured in various ways such as emission reductions delivered and inance will low once the results have been achieved. Modality 2: Investment Investments will be made in activities that will lead to the generation of emission reductions. Investment inance will be provided in a variety of forms, such as loans and equity. Modality 3: Performance aggregation Under Modality 3, carbon credits from a range of REDD+ projects will be aggregated into a large-scale portfolio under FREDDI, with the results veriied through the national MRV NO. ITEM 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2020 TOTAL US million 1 Operation of ICCTF Secretariat 7.5 14.9 19.1 17.3 49.3 108.1 2 Land-based mitigation window 19.5 81.9 118.5 135.7 344.1 699.7 3 Energy window 46.4 79.8 92.6 75.3 163.4 457.5 4 Adaptation and resilience window 41 51.9 61.7 35.9 196.8 387.3 Total budget 114.4 228.5 291.9 264.2 753.6 1652.6 Table 5: ICCTF Budget Plan 2012 – 2020 Source: BAPPENAS, 2011 2. 12 The information provided in this section is based on the Executive Summary of Fund for REDD+ Indonesia FREDDI, produced by the President’s Delivery Unit for Development Monitoring and Oversight UKP4. 28 29 other ministries, but in particular the Ministry of Finance, to progress the establishment of FREDDI and the wider enabling environment for it to operate, beyond the current focus on grants under Modality 1. In practice there are a number of outstanding enabling requirements that must be in place before Modalities 2 and 3 could be launched. Mobilisation and deployment of funding through investment or performance-based payments will be implemented when the required infrastructure needed, such as the legal foundations, operational structures and capacity, and MRV system, are established. The implementation of REDD+ in Indonesia, including the disbursement of the funds discussed above, will be conducted in several phases as shown in the Figure 2 below. At the time of writing Indonesia is in transition from Phase 2B.2 to Phase 2B.3. Indonesia is institutionally and operationally ready to enter into REDD+ phase 3, which will mean full REDD+ implementation and the beginning of payments for performance 13 . We intend to fulill part of our domestic targets through purchasing of emission-reduction performances from projects, because that not only helps us achieve our goals, but catalyses the domestic market. Agus Sari in Zwick, 2014 “ ” 13 Heru Prasetyo Head of REDD+ Managing Agency Statement in the REDD+ Stakeholder Meeting in Jakarta, 23 April 2014. Figure 2: REDD+ Phases in Indonesia Source: Prasetyo H., 2014 1 BP REDD has identiied 5 pre-requisites and 10 imperatives for all 11 provinces and subnational governments that will enable these to access REDD+ inance from the central government. • REDD+ Agency • Extension Moratorium • National and Subnational REDD+ Strategy • Digital Mapping of Forest, Peatland and Concessions • License Review • Large-Scale Programmes • Long-term • Transformational • Expansion Replications • Initial Payment for Performance • Preparation for Phase 3 • Small grants • Quick, impacting, sustainable Programmes • Preparation for Phase 2 • Development of REDD+ Agency • Time sensitive Portfolio • 5 Pre-requisites • 10 Imperatives • Payment for Performance • REDD+ Full implementation PHASE 1 | 30 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PHASE 3 PHASE 2A | 10 PHASE 2B.1 PHASE 2B.2 PHASE 2B.3 PHASE 2B.4 30 31 3.5. Emission reductions Stakeholders in Indonesia have different opinions regarding carbon markets and offsetting. Some believe that Indonesia should focus on efforts to fulil the 26 domestic commitment before selling carbon credits on the carbon market. However, some stakeholders believe Indonesia could sell carbon credits on the carbon market, if the price is suficient, prior to fulilling their emission reduction targets. Indonesian stakeholders are aware that carbon markets exist but they believe both volume and price are not currently signiicant. A policy brief issued by the Center of Standardization and Environment of the Ministry of Forestry stated that REDD+ is not synonymous with carbon trading. Up to now, the full implementation phase is still under discussion, including the extent to which market and non-market based mechanisms will be utilised Ministry of Forestry, 2012. In a submission to the UNFCCC in 2013 regarding the ‘New Market Mechanism’ NMM under a post-Kyoto agreement, Indonesia conirmed its support for the NMM in principle. It was stated that it should operate under the guidance and authority of the Conference of the Parties COP, comprising a market-based scheme of emission reductions initiatives, governed by a transparent and accountable entity with robust and internationally agreed standard and transaction logs. Indonesia sees the difference between the NMM and existing market-based mechanisms as being its openness to parties’ involvement, regardless of their category under the Kyoto Protocol. Furthermore, it should be able to accommodate more types of projects and activities that reduce greenhouse gases, in particular very small-scale projects, with limited units of emission reduction. It should have simple approaches with a streamlined methodology, but with more rigid standards. 14 In July 2014, Indonesia’s Ministry of Forestry issued regulation No. P. 50Menhut-II2014 on the trading of Indonesia’s Certiied Forest Emission Reductions. The regulation stipulates that REDD+ project developers in Indonesia are permitted to sell emission reduction units generated from their projects using Emission Reduction Purchase Agreements. The regulation also states that the in-country purchase of Indonesia’s Certiied Forest Emission Reduction will be counted as Indonesia’s emission reduction, and the purchase of Indonesia’s Certiied Forest Emission Reductions from outside of the country will not be counted as the fulilment of an emission reduction from the buyer’s country and should also not be used for transfer pricing. According to Agus Sari, Indonesia intends to fulil part of its domestic targets through the purchase of emission reductions from projects as this not only helps Indonesia achieve its goals, but also catalyses the domestic market. The REDD+ Managing Agency can act as an intermediary between domestic and international carbon markets Zwick, 2014. This is a key focus of Modality 3 of FREDDI, or the performance aggregator approach, as described in Section 3.4.3. 3.6. Analysis: Interim forest inance in the context of current REDD+ inancing strategies in Indonesia It is clear that there is currently a signiicant gap between inance available and inance needed to achieve Indonesia’s emission reductions commitments from forests and peatland. Existing committed inance is primarily focused on readiness. Readiness work is essential and must be prioritised to create the appropriate enabling conditions for REDD+ and build the necessary national and subnational capacity to implement REDD+. However, failure to address the demand gap is already damaging conidence in REDD+ and storing up signiicant challenges for when the readiness work has been completed. In addition, the majority of committed international inance is due to end between 2015 and 2017, indicating an even greater shortfall in performance-based inance for REDD+ implementation between 2015 and 2020, and beyond. In light of the points above, we can conclude that current inancing strategies do not fully meet the needs for REDD+ inancing in Indonesia. Indonesia expects to achieve REDD+ emission reductions in a variety of ways and there remains some debate about the use of market based approaches, and the timeframe for their adoption. However, there is widespread acknowledgement of the need to attract additional public and private sector inance, including from carbon markets. According to the National Council of Climate Change, Indonesia supports the utilisation of markets to effectively incentivise mitigation actions in harmony with national circumstances. However, there needs to be enough demand and a suficient carbon price to make the carbon market effective in incentivising mitigation actions. Domestic carbon markets may provide a catalyst, but without links to other markets and strong international demand, it will be hard for individual economies to develop a strong domestic market Carbon Trade Mechanism Division, 2013. Due to uncertainties in the UNFCCC-led market mechanisms, bilateral and regional market mechanisms are becoming more important in scaling up mitigation actions in developing countries, including Indonesia Carbon Trade Mechanism Division, 2013. The inancing gap identiied above, coupled with recognition of the role of market-based approaches and private sector inance in addressing this gap in Indonesia, strongly support the rationale for interim forest inance as outlined in Section 1. The potential mechanisms that could be used to deploy and manage interim forest inance in the Indonesian context are explored in detail in Section 5. There are outstanding regulatory reforms required before a domestic market-based system can operate, as is planned under FREDDI. These would need to be addressed in a timely fashion, to avoid acting as a barrier to rapid utilisation of interim forest inance commitments. The ability to do this will depend on the political economy of REDD+ in Indonesia and the extent to which coordination between the REDD+ Managing Agency and relevant ministries can be enhanced. Our research also highlights the urgent need for a systematic approach to monitoring REDD+ inance, to ensure that needs are better understood and impact of existing resources is maximised. 14 From submissions by Indonesia on the new market-based mechanism to the UNFCCC, available from http:unfccc.intcooperation_supportmarket_and_non-market_mechanismsitems7710.php Source: Sari A., 2014 igure modiied to incorporate Phase 2A, Phase 2B and Phase 3 disbursement amounts Institutional building Implementation of Design • Large projects and programmes • Initial payment for performance projects • Longer term • Transformational • ExpansionReplications • Foundation to phase three Institutional building Implementation of Design • REDD+ Agency • Extended Moratorium • National and subnational REDD+ Strategy • Digital map of all forests, and peatlands and concessions • License Review Transitioning Design to REDD+ Agency Testing Design elements • Small grants • Quick, impacting, sustainable pilots • Preparatory • Foundation to phase two operational PHASE 1 funding 30 Mio USD UNDP Interim Mechanism FREDDI 1.0 FREDDI 2.0 PHASE 3 funding 800 Mio USD Payment for Performance Interim funding 10 Mio USD PHASE 2a PHASE 2b 160 Mio USD Figure 2 continued: Funding Strategy: A Phased Approach 32 33 Section 4: Stimulating private sector investment in REDD+ in Indonesia Many of the stakeholders consulted for this case study, including representatives from ministries and government agencies, acknowledge the importance of the private sector in addressing the inancing gap for REDD+ in Indonesia. The private sector has the potential to play a variety of roles in the production of veriied emission reductions from REDD+ 15 , namely as a project developer, investor in these activities, or broker or end-buyer of REDD+ emission reductions. It is fair to say that to date the private sector has not been suficiently involved in the formulation of policy and the establishment of the necessary infrastructure required for REDD+ implementation in Indonesia. Indonesia is not alone in this regard, and the importance of increasing engagement with the private sector in the context of REDD+ is highlighted on a global level by a recent UN-REDD policy brief Henderson et al, 2014. In this section we refer to the responses gathered from interviews undertaken with a number of private sector actors active in REDD+ to assess what the Indonesian government is doing to stimulate private sector investment, explore current barriers to market growth and understand how the proposed options of the Interim Forest Finance IFF project could stimulate further private sector investment in REDD+. The statuses of the projects listed in the table above vary; some projects are still at the preparation stage while some have successfully generated emission reductions and sold carbon credits on the international voluntary carbon market. There is a lack of up-to-date information on the current status of individual projects, but one landmark of note is the successful sale of carbon credits by both PT Rimba Raya Conservation and by PT Restorasi Habitat Orangutan Indonesia. Private sector REDD+ project developers have adopted a range of tenure frameworks in the design of their projects, including ecosystem restoration concession ERC, village forest, community forest or collaboration with existing forest concessionaires. Regardless of project design or status, private sector project developers are facing similar challenges in developing REDD+ projects in Indonesia. Some of the key challenges highlighted by the private sector stakeholders interviewed include poor governance, unclear land tenure, policypolitical uncertainty and the lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions. In this report we focus on why a lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions is a challenge for private sector actors in Indonesia, and the implications of current policy uncer tainty for the business case for REDD+ investors. One of the widespread views expressed by the private sector actors interviewed was that lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions is a signiicant challenge for REDD+ projects in Indonesia. Without signiicant demand, there will be limited access to investment and no incentive for REDD+ project developers to undertake further emission reducing activities and to do so at the scale needed. REDD+ is also increasingly perceived as becoming more complex and expensive and the lack of demand further increases the risk proile of REDD+ project investments. The fact that REDD+ is not competitive with other land-based activities due to the short-term inancial horizons of most investors makes it more dificult to attract signiicant investment. The lack of demand also discourages the government from establishing iscal incentives, which are typically important for an emerging sector such as REDD+. No PROJECT TITLE LOCATION PRIVATE SECTOR ACTOR INVOLVED 1 Giam Siak Kecil Riau Province Sinar Mas 2 Katingan Peatland Restoration and Conservation Project Central Kalimantan PT. Rimba Makmur Utama 3 The Rimba Raya Biodiversity Reserve Central Kalimantan PT. Rimba Raya Conservation 4 Global Green Project East Kalimantan Global Green 5 Sustainable Forest for Orangutan East Kalimantan PT. Restorasi Habitat Orangutan Indonesia 6 Kampar Ring – a sustainable development model based on responsible peatland management Riau Province APRIL 7 Carbon sequestration and carbon stock in Merang South Sumatra Province Agrienergy Pte. Ltd. Table 6. Examples of Demonstration Activities with Private Sector Involvement in Indonesia Source: Koran Tempo, 2014 15 Note: The authors acknowledge that private sector actors involved in the supply chains of forest-risk commodities are another highly relevant private sector group in the context of REDD+. However, given the focus of this report on supply and demand for purchase of REDD+ emission reductions, the role of this group is not included within the current scope of this research. 4.1 Private sector players in Indonesia relevant to REDD+ Based on data from the Ministry of Forestry, between 2010 and 2013 there were 70 registered REDD+ demonstration activities throughout Indonesia, and approximately 50 of those demonstration activities were being developed by, or in collaboration with, private sector actors. In July 2014, a workshop organised by the REDD+ Managing Agency to get up-to-date information regarding the status of Indonesia’s REDD+ demonstration activities found that of the 70 registered, only 30 were still active Koran Tempo, 2014. Table 6 shows a selection of private sector actors involved in REDD+ activities in Indonesia. 34 35 4.2 Indonesian government objectives for growth in the REDD+ market and stimulating private sector investment in REDD+ Indonesia has some experience in utilising carbon markets, such as the Clean Development Mechanism CDM, to inance climate change mitigation actions, but very limited experience to date using market-based mechanisms in the REDD+ sector. The Government of Indonesia has acknowledged the importance of developing and utilising market-based mechanisms to inance REDD+ activities and intends to incentivise increased private sector involvement in those mechanisms Hindarto, 2012. Indonesia’s commitment to market-based mechanisms is well articulated in the National REDD+ Strategy which also outlines the need for private sector involvement; both in development of Indonesia’s REDD+ mechanism and in investment to inance REDD+ activities in Indonesia. The National REDD+ Strategy stipulates that the Fund for REDD+ in Indonesia FREDDI is to mobilise funds from public and private sector sources through systematic, programmed and professional fundraising. Funding may also be sought through various carbon trading instruments, commodities markets, and through inancial and capital markets. Fund mobilisation planning in support of REDD+ may also be done through the expansion of access to the carbon market and other funding sources REDD+ Task Force, 2012. Government oficials consulted for this study conirmed that development of market-based mechanisms for REDD+ is important for Indonesia. However, the common opinion was that the price and volume in the existing carbon markets is currently not suficient. Therefore they did not see an urgent need to establish a REDD+ market-based approach in Indonesia or signiicant potential for Indonesia to sell its emission reduction units into existing voluntary carbon markets. They highlighted the lack of compliance markets as a concern, while expressing doubt that one will be established by 2020. In the absence of signiicant carbon markets for REDD+, the Ministry of Forestry in July 2014 issued a new regulation on the trading of Indonesian Certiied Forest Emission Reductions that states that the Ministry of Forestry will facilitate project developers and potential buyers to establish the Indonesia Certiied Emission Reduction Market. REDD+, and the slow progress of the international negotiation process, was hindering market growth. One interviewee noted that while increased private sector investment is required to scale up REDD+, inance will not low at the scale needed without clear indications that there will be an internationally- agreed mechanism for REDD+. In the meantime, public sector commitments would be needed to stimulate the REDD+ market. Perceived risks associated with market growth: It was felt that while demand from the voluntary market is not at a scale that can resolve global deforestation, the market has the potential to grow. Additionally, due to its business-to-business nature, market growth would not be constrained by stalled international processes. However, one stakeholder noted that growth could potentially be associated with a perception of increased reputational risk – as projects scale up and are required to shift from smaller-scale project partners such as smallholders or individual communities to operate at a larger scale. Lack of enabling regulation: Several of the stakeholders interviewed stated that the current regulatory environment in Indonesia is not conducive to further private sector investment and market growth. It was stated by one stakeholder that the lack of clarity over vertical beneit sharing was a “massive barrier” for the private sector. Other regulatory barriers include the lack of regulation regarding carbon rights and the lack of a legal basis for a domestic carbon market to operate. The newly issued Regulation No P.50Menhut-II2014 could provide the legal basis required for the sale of REDD+ certiied emission reductions. However, at present no legal framework exists for beneit sharing mechanisms, making it dificult for private sector REDD+ actors to deine their beneit sharing structures. Other barriers to market growth: Stakeholders also speciied the following barriers to market growth: the lack of harmonised technical requirements for projects or processes; the terms of the Norway-Indonesia Letter of Intent LoI being unclear and failing to provide a clear signal regarding participation of the private sector; and other methodological issues. 4.3 Barriers to market growth A number of potential barriers to market growth were raised by private sector REDD+ stakeholders during the interview process for the IFF project. Lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions: As noted above, a widespread opinion amongst the stakeholders interviewed was that lack of existing demand for REDD+ and uncertainty over potential future demand are both barriers to REDD+ market growth. One private sector stakeholder noted that lack of demand reduces project security moving forward and negatively impacts any potential investment into a REDD+ project. The same stakeholder also noted that, in the context of existing demand for REDD+, uncertainty over both the eligibility requirements needed to access that inance and over compatibility of current standards and methodologies with existing demand mechanisms could be considered barriers. One project developer stressed that the current lack of demand for REDD+ is a barrier to the potential low of beneits to the private sector, suggesting that REDD+ does not provide a viable business case at present. They added that even if donors aren’t ready to fund transactions of emission reductions immediately, they should at least provide a market signal by conirming that they will pay in the future. Another project developer noted that few private sector actors would be willing to commit capital to REDD+ at this point given its insecurity. Unfortunately, carbon has a very inconsistent past, and a signiicant number of actors have been negatively impacted by that. Several stakeholders felt that the poor condition of the carbon market and the associated lack of demand meant that there was no viable business case for REDD+ at present. As such, REDD+ is struggling to compete with other forest and land-based commodities, thus limiting its potential to scale up. International Policy: Fundamentally, addressing the lack of large-scale demand for REDD+ is largely beyond the control of Indonesia since it relates to the UNFCCC negotiations and the willingness of developed countries to make stronger commitments to reduce emissions. Several stakeholders felt that the lack of clear signals and commitments from governments to 4.4 Possible solutions, links and rationale for interim forest inance The private sector actors interviewed suggested a number of ways in which interim forest inance could support Indonesia’s REDD+ market growth and stimulate private sector investment in REDD+, while also noting hurdles that the IFF project’s proposed options would need to overcome in order to be implemented effectively. One widespread response provided validation of one of the IFF project’s key assumptions - that current lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions could potentially be addressed by clear signals and commitments from donor country governments to REDD+. Another was that the advance market commitments AMCs that are proposed by the IFF project 16 would be effective in stimulating greater private sector investment in REDD+ in Indonesia. One stakeholder even said that such tools would be “vital” during the interim period. The private sector stakeholders felt that the provision of AMCs would allow project developers to undertake REDD+ activities with increased certainty over access to inance and provide suficient security to move forward. AMCs, it was said, would provide investors with a degree of security regarding inancial return, thus reducing the risk of initial investment. Effects such as these would provide signiicant beneits to REDD+ activities on the ground and help to develop the market for REDD+, catalysing further investment and instigation of REDD+ activities at a much greater scale. There were, however, reservations from respondents that numerous external factors would need to be considered before the AMCs could be effective. There was already positive experience with the use of emission reduction purchase agreements ERPAs or ‘off-take agreements’, on a business-to-business basis, amongst the stakeholders consulted. Regarding the use of ERPAs at scale, one respondent noted that the source of funding would need to be absolutely secure if they were to “provide developers adequate security to move forward.” 16 Advance market commitments proposed by the IFF project are: Emission Reduction Purchase Agreements ERPAs, carbon price loors and options contracts. 36 37 One stakeholder stated that carbon price loors were “a good idea,” while another added that carbon price loors “could certainly provide some security.” Concerns were raised, however, that in the absence of a market, price loors might easily become simply the price as there would be no reason for the purchase price to move higher unless there was a shortage in supply, which was considered unlikely at this time. It was suggested by another respondent that carbon price loors will only provide security relative to traditional market forces - considering there will not be an ininite supply of capital to substantiate a price loor if the market is over-supplied. They added that a price loor is a temporary solution to establish a market foundation that will eventually need to support itself. Options contracts put options, it was said by one stakeholder, would require more certainty than currently exists in order to function effectively. Few private sector actors “would be willing to wager on something with so much insecurity.” 5.1 The Interim Forest Finance project’s proposed strategic intervention Currently, there is an order of magnitude difference between the demand for global REDD+ emission reductions between 2015 and 2020, and the anticipated supply, if tropical forest countries are to be able to meet emissions reduction targets. In Indonesia, as highlighted in Section 3, conservative estimates from Indonesia’s REDD+ Managing Agency indicate that while US800 million of performance-based inance has been pledged for the Fund for REDD+ in Indonesia FREDDI, the total needed is expected to be up to US10 billion as a conservative estimate. Capital must be raised to create the incentives needed to attract private sector inance and catalyse further action by forest country governments. Otherwise, the successful operation and longevity of the REDD+ mechanism is under threat. This section of the report evaluates Indonesian perspectives regarding the current lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions and the applicability of the potential solutions highlighted in the Interim Forest Finance IFF project scoping study to the Indonesian context, with a particular focus on feedback from government stakeholders. 5.2 Generation of capital The Fast Start Finance FSF period has been central to the successful evolution of REDD+. Eight donor country governments 17 pledged between US3-4 billion in this period. Most funding has, rightly, been directed towards REDD+ readiness and almost US3 billion has been disbursed to developing countries. In addition, partnerships at the scale of billions of dollars have been established for the post-2012 period. Donor governments have started to move past REDD+ readiness. Some money is starting to low towards results-based payments for emission reductions from forest and land-use activities generating REDD+ emission reductions. However, the current inancial commitments by donor country governments are not providing large enough incentives for tropical forest countries to continue to signiicantly reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and make the necessary adjustments to transition to low carbon development pathways. During the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Eighteenth Conference of the Parties COP18 in 2013, Germany, Norway, Australia, the UK and USA made a joint statement emphasising the signiicant potential of REDD+ in combating climate change. The ive countries agreed to ensure more eficient implementation of REDD+, including a speciic focus on exploring options to scale up demand for veriied emission reductions from REDD+ up to 2020. 18 Providing capital for a strategic intervention that could be deployed in ways that would stimulate transactions of REDD+ emission reductions at a scale similar to the pledges for the FSF period, as proposed by the IFF project, would be one means of achieving this goal. Another potential source of capital for REDD+ emission reductions is the Green Climate Fund GCF. The GCF is a fund within the framework of the UNFCCC that will act as a mechanism to transfer money from the developed to the developing world, to support adaptation and mitigation efforts to counter climate change. It is intended to be the centrepiece of global efforts to raise climate inance of US100 billion a year by 2020. Indonesia became the second developing country, after South Korea, to make a commitment to the GCF when in early 2014 Indonesia’s Deputy Minister of Finance, Bambang Brodjonegoro, announced a commitment of US250,000 that would be used as seed inance Yeo, 2014. At the GCF’s 7th meeting of the Board in Songdo, South Korea in May 2014, decisions were made regarding the essential requirements for the Fund to receive, manage and disburse inancial resources as well as reaching an agreement on the commencement of the resource mobilisation process. The irst major commitment made to the capitalisation of the fund 4.5 Analysis: How could interim forest inance support growth objectives, and address potential market barriers for REDD+ in Indonesia? Unclear market signals and a lack of international consensus are currently disincentives to private sector investment in REDD+ . They also deter the Indonesian government from prioritising the establishment of the necessary regulatory environment for a functioning market-based approach to REDD+. Findings from the consultation with the private sector stakeholders strongly support the assertion that interim forest inance would both support the growth objectives, and address the potential market barriers, for REDD+ in Indonesia. The stakeholders consulted agreed that although the IFF project incentive options AMCs proposed are not the panacea to stimulate the halving of deforestation by 2020, they could certainly provide an important stimulus to REDD+ on many levels, and at a critical time. Project developers would be provided security to undertake further REDD+ activities, investors would be provided a greater degree of certainty of a return on their investment, and the government would be incentivised to intensify the implementation of an enabling environment and regulatory reform that would facilitate a functioning REDD+ market-based mechanism in Indonesia. Section 5: Scaling up inancing for REDD+ in Indonesia with interim forest inance 17 The eight donor countries are: Australia, Germany, Japan, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. 18 The full statement is available from https:www.gov.ukgovernmentuploadssystemuploadsattachment_dataile700947126-joint-statement-tackling-deforestation.pdf. 38 39 was by Germany when, in July 2014, a pledge of US1 billion €750 million was made. The GCF’s Executive Director Hela Cheikhrouhou announced that by the end of 2014 the GCF is seeking to raise as much as US15 billion, which would be used to inance activities prior to 2020 Rowling, 2014. REDD+ has been identiied as a potential area for funding through the GCF and discussions are on-going as to how REDD+ might it into the ‘Results Management Framework’ window. While ‘REDD+ Implementation’ may be an area of focus within the land use and forests sector a number of decisions need to be inalised prior to inance lowing Leonard, 2014. Despite positive signals from the GCF and a number of donor country governments, most of the stakeholders interviewed for this study in Indonesia were pessimistic about donor countries making pledges of substantial interim forest inance, particularly into large multilateral funds. There was more optimism about the potential for signiicant support through bilateral relationships. Various reasons are cited for this perspective, including the fact that most donor countries are in the process of recovering from the inancial crisis. In some cases, changes in the political economy of countries, such as Australia, have resulted in a shift towards more conservative policies and reduced support for climate change mitigation. Moreover, the complexity and expense of REDD+ has become clearer over time, requiring a range of challenging issues to be addressed. There is a perception amongst some stakeholders that developed countries would be more likely to invest in sectors with clearer methodologies and lower risk, and therefore also lower costs, such as energy and technology. Despite some pessimistic opinions regarding the commitment of developed countries, all stakeholders consulted acknowledge that Indonesia needs international support to achieve emission reductions above the 26 domestic target. Furthermore, they also stated that the international and domestic public funding is not enough to inance the emission reduction efforts either domestically or with international support, therefore it is important to increase the involvement and investment of the private sector. 5.3 Providing incentives, inance and assistance A key aim of the strategic intervention proposed by the IFF project is to improve the risk-return proile of investment in forest and land-use activities with emission reduction potential, up to a point where they are competitive with other alternative land use options over longer time horizons. To achieve this, it is essential that risk associated with the lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions is addressed. This can be achieved by improving the incentives to invest in activities that produce REDD+ emission reductions, including through the use of emission reduction purchase agreements ERPAs, creating options contracts or setting price loors. By doing so, the intervention would be directly purchasing, or incentivising the purchase of, veriied REDD+ emission reductions – guaranteeing the future revenue stream from successful implementation of REDD+ activities. This would lower a key barrier for REDD+ projects to raise upfront development capital. The strategic intervention could also offer inance e.g. grants, equity or concessional loans for the development of relevant programmes and projects, to support the need for a balance between the increased demand of emission reductions and the investment in activities that will generate emission reductions i.e. the supply. Risk mitigation instruments, such as commercial and political risk insurance, can also be used in parallel, as well as technical assistance and advisory services. The summary of the proposed options for deployment of capital under the strategic intervention, and their relevance for Indonesia, are presented in Table 7. Most of the stakeholders interviewed for this study stated that these proposed options for deployment of capital are appropriate to the Indonesian context. The stakeholders emphasised that a blended approach would be required – no one deployment option should be implemented independently - but that the appropriate options will depend on the stage of development and type of REDD+ activity targeted. ANALYSIS OF OPTIONS FOR DEPLOYING INTERIM FOREST FINANCE TO CREATE INCENTIVES FOR REDD+ Option Proposed Description of Option Proposed options in Indonesian context Emission reduction purchase agreements ERPAs An ERPA is a type of contract where the buyer agrees to pay for veriied emission reductions from the seller a more general term often used is an “off-take agreement”. The price andor volume of emission reductions is normally ixed at the date of the contract signing. ERPAs or ‘off-take agreements’ have been used by Indonesian REDD+ project developers and have been proven to attract further investment into REDD+ projects. There is signiicant potential to scale up the use of ERPAs and purchase commitments have been identiied as a future performance- based mechanism by BP REDD+. Current constraints include that ERPAs are not considered suficiently secure to be used as collateral for a loan, as REDD+ emission reductions are not yet recognised as an asset class in Indonesia. Regulation No. P50 Menhut-II2014 provides the legal basis for the trade of emission reductions achieved in Indonesia in the form of ERPAs. Emission reduction put options A put option would give investors or forest countries the right but not the obligation to sell a speciied volume of veriied emission reductions at a certain price known as the strike price at a certain date in the future. There is generally a fee or premium associated with these instruments, but this could be waived. Put options have yet to be applied in the REDD+ sector in Indonesia. However Indonesia has applied put options for various commodities, including forestry commodities and could, in theory, apply them in the context of REDD+. As stipulated under Regulation No.P.50Menhut-II2014, transactions of emission reductions. from REDD+ will be monitored by the Commodities Futures Trading Agency, presenting an opportunity for REDD+ emission reductions. to be included in the commodity exchange. Price loor A price loor is a government or group-imposed price control or limit on the minimum price that can be charged for a product, in this case an emission reduction. Price loors also have yet to be applied in the context of REDD+ in Indonesia. They have been used for other products in Indonesia and theoretically could be applied to REDD+. There exists strong appetite amongst private sector REDD+ actors to see price loors implemented. Table 7. Proposed options for deployment of capital under the strategic intervention 40 FINANCE AND RISK MANAGEMENT Grants Early stage grant funding is commonly used by the public sector for strategic interventions. Grants are often required in situations where activities do not yet generate returns for private investors. They are often used to create the ‘enabling conditions’ – technical capacity, technology, systems and processes, etc. – that are ultimately needed to attract private sector capital. Grant inance is important to cover REDD+ start-up costs and further grant inance, in traditional ex-ante or in performance- based form, would be welcomed in Indonesia. Despite its importance, however, grant inance does not directly address the lack of demand for REDD+ emission reductions and is therefore not a priority strategy for boosting interim inance and demand for REDD+. Concessional loans Loans can be extended to sectors which are important to scaling up demand for REDD+ emission reductions, but have little access to the formal inancial system. These loans would likely have concessional interest rates, be available for longer time horizons and have greater lexibility on the terms of repayment. The majority of climate inance received by Indonesia has been in the form of loans, though the majority has been channeled to non-forestry sectors, such as energy. One of the challenges regarding loans for REDD+ is that it is an emerging sector that is considered high risk, and forest carbon has not yet been recognised by banks as an asset class. Consequently, it is not easy for REDD+ project developers to access loans. Furthermore, a lack of capacity within inancial institutions in assessing REDD+ loan proposals creates a further barrier to project developers successfully accessing loans. Loan guarantees Loan guarantees ensure that a percentage of loan and interest payments will be repaid if the borrower e.g. project developers defaults. This either allows inancial institutions to extend credit to borrowers e.g. project developers that they would otherwise not lend to, or to offer a lower rate of interest. There is typically a charge associated for this product but this can often be set at a concessional rate. Loan guarantees could be considered in Indonesia. A loan guarantee has been applied by an Indonesian commercial bank in collaboration with USAID with positive results. The guarantee resulted in the increased provision of loans, while the inancial institution was able to expand loans to sectors previously not provided for USAID, 2009. Furthermore, agreements such as the USAID risk-sharing loan guarantee to the Althelia Fund USAID, 2014, announced in May 2014, are likely to attract signiicant interest. Commercial and political risk insurance Commercial risk insurance can be used to protect investors against risks which affect the cash low of a REDD+ programme or project, such as inancial losses arising from forest ires, diseases or droughts. Political insurance would cover inancial losses due to political decisions, such as regulatory andor policy changes. There is typically a fee charged for insurance, but this can be waived or set at a concessional rate. Commercial and political risk insurance has been used widely in the business sector in Indonesia, and is a possibility for adoption in the context of REDD+. One example is Indonesia Eximbank, an independent inancial institution that also operates as an extension of the Government of Indonesia. Indonesia Eximbank is expected to help provide funding in markets not served by commercial banks or inancial institutions in order to ill the market gap. Indonesia Eximbank also provides insurance against the risk of export failure, the risk of failure to pay, the investment made by Indonesian companies abroad, andor political risk in a country’s export destination Indonesia Eximbank. ADVICE AND ASSISTANCE Advisory and technical assistance services Given that many forest and land-use projects with emission reduction potential have unproven business models and uncertain revenue streams, the incentives or inance provided could be accompanied by technical assistance or advisory services. There is evidence that advisory and technical assistance would lower barriers for project developers to access REDD+ inance in Indonesia. This includes improving the capacity of project developers to produce viable business plans or loan applications; and improving the capacity of inancial institutions in assessing loan applications related to REDD+. Table 7. Cont. © A nn a R oe sin ge r 42 43

5.3.1 Grants