Agricultural production Agriculture and livestock

Afghanistan NRVA 2005 48 Table 43: Average herd or flock size Kuchi Rural Urban National Cattle 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.0 OxenYak 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.5 Horses 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 Donkeys 3.2 1.4

3.6 1.6

Camels 3.5 1.6 1.9 2.6 Goats 34.1 10.4 12.8 12.7 Sheep 53.5 10.7

14.4 15.5

Poultry 8.7 9.2

8.6 9.1

This analysis includes only the households that reported owning livestock excluding 0 or missing values of that type of livestock. Kuchi households are largely dependent on livestock and poultry production, and they own more animals per household than rural or urban households. On average, the herd size of Kuchi households is 88 small ruminants sheep and goats, 8.7 chicken, 3.5 camels, 3.2 donkeys, 2.2 horses, 2.7 cows and 1.7 oxen. 18 The Kuchi national figures NMAK-2004 survey for the number of small ruminants were 50, camels 1.7 and cattle 1.2. These figures are about half of those in NRVA 2005. The findings of FAO 2003 indicate that in 2003 the national figure for ownership of cattle was 1.2 and that of sheep was 2.9, which is considerably lower than the NRVA 2005 figures. This difference could be due to the fact that FAO 2003 didn’t fully cover Kuchi population whose main livelihood component are livestock keeping especially small ruminants. Two alternative estimates, using NRVA 2005 data, are offered here as shown in the table below. Table 44: Average number animals by households Estimate 1 number of different types of animals per household Estimate 2 average number animals per households that own some type of animal Cows 0.9 1.4 Oxen 0.2 0.4 Horses 0.1 0.1 Donkeys 0.6 0.9 Camels 0.1 0.2 Goats 4.3 6.8 Sheep 5.3 8.4 Birds 4.0 6.4 The FAO estimates are in between the first and second alternative estimates. Differences in sampling approaches between NRVA 2005, FAO 2003 and the NMAK survey need to be taken into account before drawing conclusions about the dynamics of the national herds, or the composition at the household levels for Kuchi, rural and urban households. 18 The high figure for oxen could be due to the relative weight of these animals among the semi-nomadic Kuchi, who may be able to secure feed for their animals. Afghanistan NRVA 2005 49

3.8.4. Inputs The main source of traction reported by Afghan households is animal 54,

mechanical 35, and only 12 manual. Nuristan has the highest frequency of manual cultivation while it is almost absent in Nimroz, Baghlan, Hilmand, Kunduz and Samangan. Small and sloping plots in the mountainous province of Nuristan restrict mechanization and make it difficult to use animals for traction. Women in this province are mainly involved in agriculture. Sixty-eight percent of the overall households involved in agriculture use fertilizers of some type, of which rural households accounted for 98, urban areas and Kuchi accounted for approximately the same percentage 1 each. The number and percentage of households using solid waste fertilizer weighted of total is shown in the table. The use of manure animal fertilizer in the rural areas is more than twice the use of human fertilizer. Treated yard manure is safe for agricultural production if properly treated. In the case of Afghanistan, a considerable proportion of human waste is not treated properly, thereby posing health hazards for both farmers and consumers. Seventy-four percent of the households in Nimroz, 63 in Nuristan and 56 in Logar use human solid waste as fertilizer. Table 45: Use of solid waste and mineral fertilizer by households Category Kuchi Rural Urban National Human fertilizer 18 19 Animal fertilizer 1 45 1 46 Urea 1 77 1 81 DAP 1 66 1 68 Di-Ammonium Phosphate. Households throughout Afghanistan use urea more commonly than Di-Ammonium Phosphate DAP 80 and 68, respectively. This difference is found within the rural areas, as within Kuchi and urban the usage is about the same. However, the average urea usage in kg is approximately 30-40 more than DAP kg average usage. More households use fertilizer on fields than on gardens or both fields and gardens; they also use on average more fertilizer on fields than on home gardens. The vast majority of households that use fertilizer buy it 78; NGOsINGOs play an insignificant role in providing fertilizer for households less than one half percent. Twenty-five percent of households in Afghanistan involved in agriculture use pesticides; of these, 20 use pesticides only on fields, 3 of households use pesticides only on gardens, and 2 on both fields and gardens. Ninety-four percent of households purchase their pesticide. Afghanistan NRVA 2005 50 Table 46: Use of pesticide Kuchi Rural Urban Total No. weighted observations No 1 73 1 1,303,081 75 Yes: Field crops only 19 340,148 20 Yes: Garden plot only 3 54,759 3 Yes: Both 2 37,458 2 Total 1 97 2 1,735,473 100

3.8.5. Constraints to agriculture

Agricultural production is largely subject to variations imposed by the high mountain climate, with dry, cold winters in the highlands and arid and semi-arid climates in the lowlands. Even though Afghanistan is not a poor country in terms of its per capita water availability, topography limits the options to harness and distribute the available water. Ten droughts have been reported since 1970, which represents a 28 chance of facing a dry year. 19 Under this scenario, it is not surprising that, for example, in “….2004, widespread crop failure, caused by localized drought and plant and animal diseases—particularly the west, southwest and south—led to severe food shortages” ADB, 2005a. Thus, Afghanistan faces the challenge of increasing its food security with limited irrigated or rain fed land, including agro-pastoral systems. Even though a 28 percent chance of drought is high, it is unknown how dry a drought is or how much rain is in an agricultural year not considered as drought 72 of the time. Drought, as the explanation for low agricultural or livestock performance, is used in a very loose way that tends to ignore what we know about the uncertainty associated with rainfall to develop drought management programmes and crisis shock mitigation. Outbreaks of diseases and pest infestations may occur under different microclimatic conditions and can wipe out subsistence and high value crops. Monitoring of growing conditions is essential for timely interventions for pest control; the pay offs can be high RAMP, 2006b. Animal diseases can be prevented with the use of vaccines and timely veterinary services that can reduce the spread of diseases. Systematic provision of veterinary services has proven to be highly cost-effective in Afghanistan RAMP, 2006c. The occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, floods, heavy rain, hailstorms, frosts and severe cold temperatures affect entire regions or localized communities, and have a negative impact in the agricultural sector; however, mapping efforts to assess risk associated to such events is still limited. 20 Aside from the factors mentioned above, the lack of roads to access markets to sell products or purchase inputs, pricing information that could empower farmers to maximize profit margins, cooperatives or farmers’ associations that could facilitate 19 Droughts for 1971-72, 1977, 1982-83 Guimbert, 2004, 1999-2002 FAO, 2005 and 2004 World Bank, 2005b have been documented. However, the term “drought” is imprecise because the lack of data and some authors refer to agricultural seasons based on long-duration wheat cultivation starting in October and ending in May of the following year or they refer to calendar years; crop yields and numbers of animals are indicators of “drought conditions”. 20 It was not until April 2003 that USAID and the United States Geological Survey launched the Agrometeorological Project to collect and systematize data in different provinces. USAID-USGS, Kabul and the Famine Early Warning System Network, Kabul serve to inform stakeholders in the agricultural sector and international cooperation about food security risks related to environmental and socio- economic conditions and discuss policy options for risk mitigation, publish bimonthly newsletters. Afghanistan NRVA 2005 51 the access to local or international markets and credit, still prevails. Lack of storage facilities across the country limits the benefits of producers. As will be discussed in Section 4, environmental, biological and socio-economic factors constitute covariate shocks that affect not only the livelihoods of those households involved agriculture and livestock production, but also those households involved in other sectors of the economy.

3.9 Transportation and access to markets

Road access is vital for physically accessing markets, either as suppliers or consumers. The average distance to the nearest drivable road was 7.4 Km for the Kuchi, 4.6 Km for the rural and 0.4 Km for the urban communities 4.0 Km for all categories. Regardless of the means of transportation, access to market is one hour or less, and there is daily means of transportation. Table 47: Distance of communities to the nearest road km Categories Mean Maximum Minimum Kuchi 7.4 80.0 0.0 Rural 4.6 90.0 0.0 Urban 0.4 20.0 0.0 National 4.0 90.0 0.0 Among those who responded that the roads are usable all year, 72 were Kuchi, 70 rural, 95 urban and the national figure was 75. In contrast, most of the households mentioned that there has not been a change in the roads in the last three years; Kuchi reported 79, rural households 58, and urban households 61, with the national figure at 60. Table 48: Change of road access in the last three years Categories No change Access improved Access deteriorated Kuchi 79 18 3 Rural 58 35 7 Urban 61 36 3 National 60 34 6 Some communities mentioned improvements in the road conditions: Kuchi 18, rural 35, urban 36 and the national figure was 34. Other communities mentioned deterioration of road conditions, Kuchi 3, rural 7, urban 3 and nationwide 6. The majority 67 of communities acknowledged an increase in traffic during the last 3 years. Out of those, commercial trucks and vans were reported to show the largest increase by Kuchi households 36, rural households 39, urban communities 19 and nationwide 35. Table 49: Traffic increase by type of transportation Categories Public bustruck Commercial trucks van Private vehicles Motorbikes Other Kuchi 31 36 26 7 Rural 18 39 32 10 Urban 30 19 33 17 National 21 35 32 12 Afghanistan NRVA 2005 52 Distance to markets within one hour, and existence of daily transportation would suggest that infrastructure is reasonable, but experience shows that this is not likely to be the case. These figures suggest that the situation is not totally congruent because there is no formal definition of drivable road or whether it requires a large lorry commercial truck or a small vehicle to negotiate it. A majority of households 75 expressed that the roads are usable year around; at the same time, they expressed that there had no changes in the road condition. Thus, the only answer that seems to express the current situation is the perception of closeness to the markets within an hour and the availability of daily transportation. 21 Physical access to markets is important, but the choices of selling and buying are equally important to enable economic growth. NRVA 2005 offered modest contributions to this knowledge. In reference to the main staple crop, wheat, 64 percent of the households engaged in agriculture stated that they grow wheat for home consumption and 12 stated that they have sold part of their harvest. Out of those who sold wheat, 36 percent sold it to a buyer from their village or city, while 34 sold to a buyer outside their village or city. Almost 80 of households do not have a choice about where they sell their wheat. Market pricing information about local and imported wheat, wheat flour, local and imported rice, sheep and goats, agricultural labour wages, raw opium, and fertilizer is available in VAU-FEWS Net 2006. 22

3.10. Expenditure

Data on expenditure for food and non-food items can be found in the NRVA 2005 data set available on the NSS website. 21 Recent analysis of roads and transportation in Afghanistan can be found in RAMP 2006d. 22 FAAHM 2005 and RAMP 2006e provide further information about marketing practices of staple and cash crops in Afghanistan.