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NRVA 2005 52
Distance to markets within one hour, and existence of daily transportation would suggest that infrastructure is reasonable, but experience shows that this is not likely
to be the case. These figures suggest that the situation is not totally congruent because there is no formal definition of drivable road or whether it requires a large
lorry commercial truck or a small vehicle to negotiate it. A majority of households 75 expressed that the roads are usable year around; at the same time, they
expressed that there had no changes in the road condition. Thus, the only answer that seems to express the current situation is the perception of closeness to the
markets within an hour and the availability of daily transportation.
21
Physical access to markets is important, but the choices of selling and buying are equally important to enable economic growth. NRVA 2005 offered modest
contributions to this knowledge. In reference to the main staple crop, wheat, 64 percent of the households engaged in agriculture stated that they grow wheat for
home consumption and 12 stated that they have sold part of their harvest. Out of those who sold wheat, 36 percent sold it to a buyer from their village or city, while
34 sold to a buyer outside their village or city. Almost 80 of households do not have a choice about where they sell their wheat. Market pricing information about
local and imported wheat, wheat flour, local and imported rice, sheep and goats, agricultural labour wages, raw opium, and fertilizer is available in VAU-FEWS Net
2006.
22
3.10. Expenditure
Data on expenditure for food and non-food items can be found in the NRVA 2005 data set available on the NSS website.
21
Recent analysis of roads and transportation in Afghanistan can be found in RAMP 2006d.
22
FAAHM 2005 and RAMP 2006e provide further information about marketing practices of staple and cash crops in Afghanistan.
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NRVA 2005 53
4.
Risk and vulnerability, perceptions of risk and well-being
Shocks are defined as uncontrollable and risky events that have negative consequences for individuals, households or communities. They can be natural,
economic, political or social in nature. The NRVA household questionnaire splits shocks into covariate shocks, such as deficiencies in quantity and quality of drinking
water, agricultural or livestock diseases, natural disasters, insecurity, unfavourable financial events or epidemics which affect a number of households, village or a wider
area; and idiosyncratic shocks, which typically occur at a household level, such as loss of employment, the death of a household member or the loss or damage of
property.
Table 50: Frequency of shocks during the last year
23
Have you had
shocks? Covariate
Idiosyn- cratic
Categories
Yes Drinking
Wa ter
Agric. Natural
disasters Lack o
f security
Financial Epidemics
Various
Kuchi 52 30 68
40 9
9 8
15 Rural
51 25 48 55
12 19
10 10
Urban 18 23 10
36 9
27 9
26 National
45 25 47 53
11 19
9 11
The World Bank 2005a states that the urban areas have similar shocks to those experienced in rural areas, such as lack of water. However, within urban areas the
effects of particular shocks seem to be concentrated. The results from NRVA 2005 in Table 50 show that the households in urban areas are more exposed to financial and
idiosyncratic shocks and are less subject to natural disasters compared to the rural or Kuchi households. “The competition for space means that housing and land are at a
premium. In addition the near total monetisation of the urban economy as opposed to partial in the rural economy means that people’s livelihoods strategies are
dominated for the need for cash to meet expenditures. At the same time, there is an inherent instability of wage income opportunities due to informal employment markets
in cities” World Bank, 2005a, 61. Less dependence on social networks within the urban areas also makes the impact of idiosyncratic shocks more acute 26 urban
compared to 15 and 10 for Kuchi and rural, respectively.
23
The groups of shocks used in NRVA 2005 are drinking water quality and quantity; agricultural reduced quantity and quality of agricultural water, unusually high incidence of crop pests and diseases,
opium eradication, ceasing cultivation of opium, unusual high level of livestock diseases, reduced availability of grazing areas, and reduced of Kuchi migration routes; natural disasters earthquakes,
landslidesavalanches, flooding, late damaging frosts, heavy rains preventing work, severe winter conditions and hailstorms; lack of security insecurityviolence, and theft; financial unusual high
increases in food prices and unusual decrease in farm gate prices; epidemics unusual level of human disease; various idiosyncratic bankruptcy of a family business, serious illness accident for working
household member, death of a working household member, and death of another household member, involuntary loss of houseland or livestock, and large increase in housing rent.
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NRVA 2005 54
However, only 18 of the urban households acknowledged being affected by shocks in their lives while about 51 of Kuchi and rural households reported being affected
by shocks.
Risk is defined as the probability of occurrence of a particular shock. Communities in the tail of a watershed are more likely to be at risk of having lower quality of drinking
water, as well as highly fluctuating quantities of water, depending on the land management practices observed by the communities at the head of the watershed.
Similarly, communities located in mountainous areas are more likely to have landslides and frost than those communities located in lower and flatter areas.
Adverse effects of any given magnitude and their frequency of occurrence interacting with the socio-economic conditions of the communities or populations determines
their vulnerability. In other words, vulnerability is the probability of the degree of damage or exposure to detrimental effects caused by the occurrence of shocks.
Environmental, financial and social endowments determine the ability of households and communities to cope with shocks. In general, better-endowed households are
less vulnerable than households with poorer endowments.
Vulnerability analysis related to food insecurity Scaramozzino, 2006 offers two useful features, it is forward-looking and stochastic. The analysis is not only
concerned with current food insecurity but the ability to address future insecurity through ex-ante assessment. The analysis also incorporates the risks associated
with food insecurity, and, where possible, it can incorporate the use of social support systems and local knowledge of the households or communities. Nevertheless, food
security entails a subset of elements in poverty analysis that is related to vulnerability, hazards and risks.
Scarce information is available regarding the frequency and the extent of these shocks and the agro-ecological and socio-economic characterization of communities.
Some information related to drought and frost, and food insecurity is available through the Agro-meteorological and Famine Early Warning Systems Newsletter that
coordinates efforts with FAAHM Crop and Food Supply Assessments Missions, upon request by the government of Afghanistan.
24
24
http:www.fews.netcentersinnerSections.aspx?f=afpageID=alerts
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NRVA 2005 55
Figure 14: Households experiencing drinking water shocks last 12 months Water quality and quantity problems exist throughout the country. More than half of
the households reported poor water taste and drought in Badghis, decreased water table in Laghman and drought in Zabul during the previous year. The map depicts a
horizontal and almost continuous strip, from Farah to Badakhshan, provinces in the strip have shown less water shocks, while those above and below the strip have
shown higher 25-50 incidence of drinking water shocks.
Figure 15: Households experiencing insecurity as shock last 12 months The provinces adjacent with Pakistan generally show the highest insecurity.
