operations. These factors become important for the planning of measures to improve the efficiency
of agricultural production. More detailed analysis will be needed to assess
the specific situation of each country, taking into account soil and climatic resources, the possibili-
ties for expansion of the arable area and intensify- ing
farming practices,
in the
context of
socio-economic and political developments. This analysis demonstrates evidently that there
is still ample room for expansion of the agricul- tural production. It also shows that considerable
innovations in agricultural production techniques and changes in land use are possible and needed.
The availability of water and other limiting factors such as nutrients should be guaranteed and the
effect of growth and yield reducing factors such as pests, diseases and weeds should be controlled and
with biological means as is nowadays already widely demonstrated in practice. Best technical
means lead to biotechnical and environmental technical improvements.
5. Multiple goals of agriculture and land use
The analysis above should be seen as a first step in an explorative study on land use in Europe. It
is clear that the biophysical possibilities are influ- encing, but certainly not dictating the develop-
ment in agriculture and land use. Other aims that are based on societal or ecological preferences
define those developments. In an explorative study for the European Union EU12 before extension
these consequences are demonstrated Rabbinge and van Latesteijn, 1992; Rabbinge et al., 1994.
It was shown that at nearly all places the gap between potential and actual yield is considerable
and that sub-optimality in biotechnical and envi- ronmental terms is very general. It is for that
reason that the explorative study towards the consequences of land use and environmental side
effects at the level of the European Union is so striking and challenging.
The variation in land use in various scenarios is considerable, the area extent needed to reach opti-
mal land use in various scenarios varies between 40 and 78 × 10
6
ha cultivated land. That is in all cases much less than the present area of cultivated
land 128 × 10
6
ha. Diflerences in pesticide use are even more impressive. At present some 400 × 10
6
kg active ingredients, in the scenarios it varies between 5 and 40 × 10
6
kg active ingredients. The reason for these dramatic differences between the
present situation and the possible future situation lies with the gap between potential and actual
yields and the suboptimal use of land and inputs. A double green revolution Conway, 1997 i.e. a
dramatic increase in yields per ha and similar and probably more substantial increase in productivity
of water and nutrients and decrease of pesticide use, is possible but requires appropriate policy
choices, use of the proper institutions and instru- ments. In the extended European Union there are
even more options and possibilities. The procedure to identify such options could follow the approach
of the ‘Ground for choices’ study Rabbinge et al., 1994. That requires an explicit formulation of
goals. Socio-economic, ecological, environmental and agricultural objectives should be made more
explicit and used in an interactive way to develop options for agriculture, land use and rural devel-
opment for the extended European Union. The experience with earlier explorative studies and the
biophysical possibilities described above make al- ready clear that there is ample opportunity for a
more productive, environmentally less polluting and ecologically sound agriculture.
These challenging
perspectives should
be achieved and used rather than seen as a threat.
6. Towards a policy and research agenda for the 21st Century
