European Journal of Agronomy 13 2000 85 – 100
Changes in agriculture and land use in Europe
R. Rabbinge
a,
, C.A. van Diepen
b
a
Group Plant Production Systems, Laboratory for Theoretical Production Ecology, Wageningen Uni6ersity, P.O. Box
430
,
6700
AK, Wageningen, The Netherlands
b
Alterra, Wageningen Uni6ersity and Research Centre, P.O. Box
125
,
6700
AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands Received 19 February 1999; received in revised form 1 September 1999; accepted 14 March 2000
Abstract
Changes in land use and agriculture have occurred frequently during the last millennium in Europe. Now at the start of the millennium a review of how and why changes took place may lead to a better understanding of these
developments. This insight based on scientific analysis and understanding may be combined with explorative studies to gain a view on future possibilities. Such an explorative study for Europe is described. It demonstrates that
contraction of agricultural area in the coming decades is inevitable and in line with an historic development where periods of expansion and contraction of agricultural area were intermingled. The new millennium will start with a
period of changes in land use to fulfill societal goals in an optimum way. The research agenda that helps to define optimal land use and agricultural methods is based on this analysis and helps to develop the policy agenda for the
near future. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
:
Scenario’s; Attainable and potential yield; Water limitation www.elsevier.comlocateeja
1. Introduction
Changes in land use and agriculture have oc- curred frequently during the last millennium in
Europe. Now at the start of the new millennium it may be useful to consider in retrospect how and
why changes took place. The rise in productivity per unit of area ha and per man hour has
increased dramatically during the last century and will continue to do so during the first period of
the next century, at least in the majority of the agricultural areas of Europe. In other parts of the
world such as Asia, these increases are dearly needed Evans, 1998. The broadening of aims of
agriculture and land use will in the first place be related to the quality of agricultural produce and
agricultural production methods. Those functions of agriculture will be supported by government
stimulus and directly through added value at the market.
Another function of agriculture related to its contribution to nature conservation, biodiversity
and the European landscape is a public good which is scarcely valued at this moment at the
market place, and that may require another ap-
Corresponding author. Tel.: + 31-317-482141; fax: + 31- 317-484892.
E-mail address
:
rudy.rabbingepp.dpw.wag-ur.nl R. Rab- binge.
1161-030100 - see front matter © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 1 1 6 1 - 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 - 8
proach. Such goals and means are not discussed in this paper. It is limited to agriculture and land
use related to agro-ecosystems. The possibilities and limitations of agriculture
and land use in Europe will be investigated with a simulation study that uses the bioclimatic data,
soil characteristics and crop physiological, pheno- logical, optical and geometrical characteristics as
input. The outcomes of the explorative study are confronted with the broadened aims of agriculture
and its place in the society, when additional inves- tigations are done.
2. Land use change from 1000 – 2000, expansion and contraction of agricultural area
Expansion of agricultural area was for ages the only way to supply sufficient food for the increas-
ing European population. At the beginning of the Middle Ages more than 80 of the population
was working in agriculture using the land in the best possible way given the limited external re-
sources that were available to increase productiv- ity and the absence of labour replacing machinery
Slicher van Bath, 1964.
Some two hundred farm families were needed to supply the 20 monks in a monastery in the
neighborhood of Anvers Belgium. Around 1400 Europe was confronted with the devastating ef-
fects of the pandemic Black Death. Some 30 of the European population died and it was for that
reason that the cultivated area contracted Fig. 1. After a short period of contraction a new period
of expansion continued until the end of the 17th Century when a new period of contraction of
cultivated area started as a result of the increase of productivity per ha due to better agricultural
methods Rabbinge and van Latesteijn, 1992. The use of new rotation systems and manure was
widely applied and better grain varieties intro- duced. International trade also affected the need
for cultivated area. After some 100 years of con- traction and stagnation, agricultural area ex-
panded
again as
the European
population increased more than productivity per ha.
That continued until the midst of the 20th Century. Then productivity rise per ha discontin-
ued: the first green revolution where productivity rise per ha of 4 – 15 kg grain equivalents per ha
per year increased up to a level of 80 – 150 kg grain equivalents per ha per year. The reason of
this sudden increase of productivity was due to a combination of factors. New varieties with a high
harvest index, better use of fertilizers that elimi- nated yield limitation due to plant nutrition, ap-
propriate water management and supplementary irrigation and finally appropriate crop protection
with sophisticated weed, pest and disease control led to a synergism that resulted in the increase of
land productivity. Productivity rise per man hour was even more dramatic as labour replacing ma-
chinery was widely applied.
That rise in productivity per hectare will lead to a surplus of cultivated land that is increasing
considerably for the coming decades. The rise in productivity will continue for some time at the
majority of agricultural land in Europe, since the gap between potential and actual productivity is
still considerable, as will be shown in this paper.
The major reason for the continued increase is the bonus at higher yields at well endowed lands
as the productivity of labour, water, nutrients or biological and other weed, pest and disease con-
trol measures increases at higher yield levels. In a detailed analysis de Wit 1992 illustrated how
input efficiency and productivity per unit of labour or per unit of water is in general increasing
when these factors are improved simultaneously. The synergistic effects of the various inputs will
lead to a higher productivity for each individual input, provided the use of good soils. In an exten-
sion of these analysis van Ittersum and Rabbinge 1997, elaborated and demonstrated the reasons
and general applicability of these findings.
Fig. 1. Expansion and contraction of cultivated area in Eu- ropean from 1000 to 2000.
The optimum of each of the inputs may be different at various ecoregions and depend on
societal aims but it is definitely at higher yield levels than the actual yields, which are attained at
various places.
3. Development of agriculture and land use during the last 5 decades
