Macroeconomics : (uneployment, inflation & growth)

Macroeconomics:
(Unemployment, Inflation, & Growth)
Book:
Michael Parkin. 2003. Macroeconomics. Sixth Edition. Pearson Education.
Inc. USA.
William A. Mceachern. Makro Ekonomi; Pendekatan Kontemporer. 2000.
Salemba Empat.
Empat Jakarta.
Jakarta
Sadono Sukirno. Makroekonomi; Teori Pengantar. 2004. Edisi Ketiga. Pt.
Raja Grafindo Persada. Jakarta.

By : Ir. Agus Supandi S. SE Msi.

UNEMPLOYMENT
„

Labor
L
b F
Force

- Those working/willing to work

„

Unemployed
- Lose their job & search for another job
- Leave their jjobs & search for another jjob
- Enter or reenter the labor force to search for
a job

Measurement of Unemployment

Total
Population
288,600,000

Under 16
and/or
institutionalized


74,700,000

Not in
l b
labor
force

71 400 000
71,400,000

134,200,000
Employed

Unemployed

8,300,000

Unemployment
rate
t


=
labor force

unemployed

x 100

MEASUREMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT

UNEMPLOYMENT

T
Types
off Unemployment
U
l
t
„ Frictional


Unemployment
„ Structural Unemployment
„ Cyclical Unemployment
Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment
„ Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU)
„

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Unemployment Rates 5 Industrial Nations 1992 - 2002

15

France

UK
U.K.

10

German

Germany

U.S.

Japan

5

0

1992

1997

2002

Source: Economic Report of the President, 2003

INFLATION
Defined and Measurement

• Is a process in which the price
level is rising & money is
l i value
losing
l
• Rate of inflation calculated
using index numbers

TYPES OF I N FLATI ON
D EM AN D - PULL I N FLATI ON
Th a t in cr e a se a gr e ga t e de m a n d, su ch a s a n

•Increase in the quntity of money
•Increase in g
government
purchases
h
•Increase in exports

TYPES OF I N FLATI ON

COST- PUSH I N FLATI ON
•Can result from any factor that
decreases agregate supply
•Its
I main
i sources are increasing
i
i
wage rates and increasing prices
of key raw materials
•Rising Per-Unit Production Costs

Consumer Price Index
Price of most recent market
basket in the particular year

CPI =

x 100
Price of the same market

basket in 1982-1984

Measuring Inflation

I n fla t ion
rate

=

(CPI this year – CPI last year)

CPI last
l t year

x 100

ANTICIPATED INFLATION

11%


=

+
5%

Nominal
Interest
Rate

Real
Interest
Rate

6%
Inflation
Premium

ECONOMIC GROWTH

•Improved Products and Services

•Added Leisure
•Other Impacts
•Relative International Growth Rates

SUPPLY DETERMINANTS
OF REAL OUTPUT
•Size of
employed
labor force
•Average hours
of work

Labor
Inputs
(Hours
of Work)
X

•Technological
advance

Labor
•Quantity of capital Productivity
•Education and
(Average
training
Output
•Allocative
All
i
Per Hour)
efficiency
•Other

=

REAL
GDP

GROWTH IN THE AD-AS MODEL
ASLR1 ASLR2

C

Price Level

Capital G
Goods

A

B
D
Consumer Goods

Q1 Q2
Real GDP

ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE
EXTENDED AD – AS MODEL
ASLR1

ASLR2
AS2

Pricce Level

AS1

P2
P1
AD2
AD1

o

Q1

Real GDP

Q2

PEAK

Le
evel of bu
usiness a
activity

RECESSION

Time

TROUGH

RECOVERY

Phases of the Business Cycle

THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Case Study & Group Discution: Gunakan Teknologi Internet/ Text
B k u// mnjawab
Book
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Unemployment:
¾ Sejauhmana pemerintah perlu menekan pengangguran? Apakah

sampai pengangguran mencapai nol persen?
¾ Pengangguran yg bagaimanakah yg dapat ditolerir?
¾ Berapa persen pengangguran dari angkatan kerja yg dpt dianggap baik?

I nflation 1:
¾ Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) menggunakan 45 Kota utk mensurvai harga2,

kota kota manakah yg disurvai?
kota-kota
¾ Berapa komoditas total produk yg disurvai?
¾ Dikelompokkan dlm berapa kategori, komoditas tsb?
¾ Apakah jumlah kota & jenis komoditas tsb, tlh menjadi patokan yg tetap?

Case Study & Group Discution: Gunakan Teknologi Internet/ Text
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I nflation 2:
¾ Inflasi dapat dikategorikan: Single digit inflation, Galloping Inflation
dan Hyperinflation.
¾ Jelaskan mengenai inflasi tsb, penyebabnya, & bagaimana efek
thd kepercayaan orang pada uang negara tsb?

I nflation 3:
¾ Carilah data inflasi Indonesia dan beberapa negara utk

perbandingan. Data yg diinginkan minimal sejak tahun 2000 s.d
2005.
¾ Analisis besarnya inflasi Indonesia & perbandingkan dengan
negara2 lain.
¾ Berikan komentar Anda terhadap data tsb?

Case Study & Group Discution: Gunakan Teknologi Internet/ Text
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Produk Nominal & Riil:
¾ Carilah data PDB Indonesia: Nominal dan riil. Data dapat dimulai
sejak tahun 2000 s.d minimal 2005.
¾ Carilah nilai riil PDB dan pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia.
¾ Berikanlah komentar terhadap pertumbuhan PDB tsb, bila perlu
gunakanlah pembanding dari negara lainnya.

Ketentuan:
¾ Waktu utk mengerjakan + Diskusi kelompok maksimum 30 menit.

¾ Hasil kelompok dikirimkan via e-mail ke: [email protected].
¾ Setelah semua jjawaban diterima,, akan dilakukan p
pembahasan soal.

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