Ekonomi industri pulp dan kertas Indonesia : suatu analisis simulasi kebijakan dan tekanan internasioanal
ABSTRACT
-
2.2.3 1
?:"o Q
2S " T f c G
BAMBANG WIDYANTORO. 2005. Economy of Indonesian Pulp and Paper
hdushy: Policies and International Pressures Simulation Analysis (HERMANTO
JIREGAR, as a Chairman, BUNASOR SANIM and D.S PRIYARSONO, as
Advisory Cornminee).
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The objectives of this study are to evaluate the impacts of relevant policy
and international p r e s m on the domestic economy, in particular the
and paper industry. The problems of the sectors are on the market structure of
materials such as small-log (chip woods) and puip for the mills, import boycott
dictation of pulp and paper stock as which of intanational pressures.
model is used to describe Indonesian pulp and paper industry as a
,$em. Eleven policy altanatives m for the period 199312003 are simulated with a
iisgdtaneous econometric model consisting of twenty-five Wavioral equations,
n@ding five price linkage equations, three technical production equations and
wdve bet identities to close the system. The model distinctly features
mktbgenous government policy in the domestic market and exogenous international
3 s u r e s itl the world market for pulp and paper. The two-stage least squares
nlgbod was used to estimate the panunof the hebaviord equations in the model.
f,
Using income distribution and welfare criteria, the results indicate that
o$easing chip wood price, decreasing pulp price and their combination of the two
ng result in decreases in the welfare of Indonesian society and a decline in the
Iomestic economy. It is essential that the policies will avoid a monopsonistic
itBtion of pulpmills relative to timber-estates or rnompoMc situation among
~ ~ r m i l l sIf. these policies are combined with deaeasing interest rates and
nk&asing chip wood production trough an haease of the area of exploitation of
orest resources with or without Refomtation Fund, the results will improve the
omestic economy and society's welfke. If the-distribution of Reforestation Fund is
topped, the pulpdls as consumers of chip wood would suffer losses and revenue
iould be transfermi to producers of chip wood.
Decreasing interest rate will improve h e domestic economy and wiaI
feifare. In conbast, increasing interest rates, import embargo and stock dctation
{ouid cause Indonesia to lose in foreign exchange receipts. People's welfare will
icrease even if an import embargo m m ~ e s while
,
an inin interest rates and
lock dictation would decrease welfare and the domestic economy would decline as a
:atof these policies and intemational pressures.
0 Tbis study suggests that the Indonesia pulp and paper industq be very
eptible to international pressures, so that Government of Indonesia must control
4etivitie.o of logging and cnvimmeatal practices for enterprises of thnber estate,
and p a p indushy. To empower Indonesian timberestate, W hcentives
=funding policy, business security, short beraucmcy and legal aspects, vertical
~Smtionor joint venture with pulp and paper indcan be simultaneously
rgernented.
To change the market structure of mompwnistic situation in the
~ s t i market,
c
Government of Indonesia must encourage some more investments
C@dpmills and p a p d s in the longterm.
T
aj
@words: policy and international p r e s m , monopsonistic, oligopolistic or
monopolistic pulpmills, income distribution and economic welfare.
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ABSTRAK
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BAMBmG WIDYANT,.
2005. Ekonomi hdustri Pulp dm Kerns Indonesia:
Sushr Analisis Simulasi Kebijakan dan ToLIntmasioaal. (HERMANTO
SIREGAR, sebap Ketua, BUNASOR S A N I M dm D.S PRIYARSONO, sebagai
Anggota Komisi Pcmbimbing).
Tujuan penelitian ini addah mengeraluasi dampak alkmatif kebijrlkrln dan
C$$gs
%3'%23 p
,.
3 K2 5 c
P+ 9e nf &c 2
, I+
Z Q ~ Q
r z P% a
z
tekamn intemsional yang relevan pada ekonomi dmestik pulp dan kern
hdonesia Masalah utama pada sektor ud ad& struktur pasar balm baku, seperti
t@m b h scrplh dan pulp untuk kilmg pengolah, dm is" boikot dan pmdikteau
~ s e d i u apulp dm kertas d e n . Swtu model ekowmi dimsun untuk
Q 3 3 5
w%&nggambdmindustri pdp dm k a h s sebagai sistem. Sepuluh dt&f
C
Q = 3
keijakan dm tekanan intanasiwal yang disusun untuk periode 1993-2003
3
Q
dl$mulasi dengan model e k o n o m d simultan, terdiri atas duapuluh lima
wm EkS
~.smaan
penlaku, t m w u k Lima permmaan terkat h a m ti@ penmaan teknis
4.
E
. -9 .: *
0 s., 2.
p:%luksi clan duabelas identitas pasar untuk menutup sistem. M d d tersebut
= q ~ g
m p * a a kebijakan pemaiatah endogen dalm papa domest* dm teLurm
s P E Q
~&masional eksogen dalam pasar dunia. Metode two-stage l w squures
~
(2SLS)
g -2 2
- 3
dr$makan untuk mengestimasi parameter persamaan p d a k u dalarn model.
28
55
Dengan menggunakan kriteria distribusi pendqatan dan kesejahteraan,
hGilnya mengindikasikan bahwa harga bahan baku serpih naik, hmrrgrr pulp turun dan
3 9 3
ft2 r$ 3
k$&binasinya men&
ekonami domestik dan kesejahmasyankat. Hal
-.
5
tc&enting di sini adalah bahwa kebijaLan tersebut alcan menghrndarkan pcrilalru
2. -.
m#nopsonis dadatau monopoWoligopoli industn pulp. J i h kebijakan tersebut
*r
Q *
zijgs
5
a
Q
$2
,
7s
g
f,
gr z g
Z E
z ;g
0
Q
-0
5 ;?
=S -9
P.
5
B
F
3
L
E
s
g
e
r
8t
-.g
2Q
s
E
$
3
8
$
7
dipbinasikan dengan kmaikan pmduksi bahan baku serpih melalui pluasan area
pgdengan arau tanpa penyaluran dana reboisasi, hasilnya akan m e m m
&mmi dmestk dm kesejahtm masyardcat Indwesia Jika penyaluran dana
reboisasi dihentikm, ldlangpulp menderita kerugian dan transfer pendapatan t d g g i
diterima oleh produsen bahan baku serpih.
P e n m a n suku bunga s e m keseluruhan maghasilkan p t m b u h m
ekmomi dornestik dan menyejdterakan masyardat Indonesia. Sedan*
kenailcan
suku bunga, embargo impor dan pendiktean persediaan pulp dm kertas menyebabkan
Endonesia kehibgan devisa. Kesejahmaan masyarakat Indonesia masih rneningbt
walaupun tejadi embargo impw, sedmgkan k e n d m suku bmga dm pendikean
persediaau menurunkan kesejahteraan. Ekonomi domestik &an menurun akibt
kebijakan dsn t e h m intemasional tersebut.
Penelitian ini menyamnkan bahwa karma industri tersebut sangat rentan
@wan) cerbdsp &an
internasiond, mdca Pemerintah Indonesia hams m a n y
~"1gkontrolseluruh aktivitas, temasuk pnhk-praktrk pembalakdpaanenan
W remi dm pengkelolaan lingkungan industri bahm baku serpih, pulp dan kertas.
I&& mendorong pabangunan hutan tanaman di Indonesia, t
,kebbijakan
@:ntif fiskd, penmaan, jaminan kepastian usaha dm kwlmanan, dau birokrasi
singkat, integrasi vertkd am kerjasama pmnoddm Qoint venture) M a t a u
mmi &pat dikombinttsikan secm simultan, sehingga pa& g i h m y a hutan
tZ%nan akan dapai memenuhi keselwuhan bahan baku serpih untuk kilmgpulp.
s
7
-
CBta Kunci: Kebijakan dm tekanan iniemasional, monopsuni, oligopoli atau munopoli b g p d p , distribusi penclapatan dan kesejahteraan ekonomi.
C
3
-.
c
z-.
u"
-
2.2.3 1
?:"o Q
2S " T f c G
BAMBANG WIDYANTORO. 2005. Economy of Indonesian Pulp and Paper
hdushy: Policies and International Pressures Simulation Analysis (HERMANTO
JIREGAR, as a Chairman, BUNASOR SANIM and D.S PRIYARSONO, as
Advisory Cornminee).
L.Q"Q
g1o
'Ds 5.:
2
g2
3
g e9~s .
s m EX
.2 ?
T
r
"
a
3k g
zg
ZQ.
3
3:
0
I
%7J-
g
2
2
,g
fc
Q
n
;C
$ -2
g
5
.!
%
3
&
-0
g
"
fF
E
3s
-.
2.
Q
t
3
E
5
3
8
B7
The objectives of this study are to evaluate the impacts of relevant policy
and international p r e s m on the domestic economy, in particular the
and paper industry. The problems of the sectors are on the market structure of
materials such as small-log (chip woods) and puip for the mills, import boycott
dictation of pulp and paper stock as which of intanational pressures.
model is used to describe Indonesian pulp and paper industry as a
,$em. Eleven policy altanatives m for the period 199312003 are simulated with a
iisgdtaneous econometric model consisting of twenty-five Wavioral equations,
n@ding five price linkage equations, three technical production equations and
wdve bet identities to close the system. The model distinctly features
mktbgenous government policy in the domestic market and exogenous international
3 s u r e s itl the world market for pulp and paper. The two-stage least squares
nlgbod was used to estimate the panunof the hebaviord equations in the model.
f,
Using income distribution and welfare criteria, the results indicate that
o$easing chip wood price, decreasing pulp price and their combination of the two
ng result in decreases in the welfare of Indonesian society and a decline in the
Iomestic economy. It is essential that the policies will avoid a monopsonistic
itBtion of pulpmills relative to timber-estates or rnompoMc situation among
~ ~ r m i l l sIf. these policies are combined with deaeasing interest rates and
nk&asing chip wood production trough an haease of the area of exploitation of
orest resources with or without Refomtation Fund, the results will improve the
omestic economy and society's welfke. If the-distribution of Reforestation Fund is
topped, the pulpdls as consumers of chip wood would suffer losses and revenue
iould be transfermi to producers of chip wood.
Decreasing interest rate will improve h e domestic economy and wiaI
feifare. In conbast, increasing interest rates, import embargo and stock dctation
{ouid cause Indonesia to lose in foreign exchange receipts. People's welfare will
icrease even if an import embargo m m ~ e s while
,
an inin interest rates and
lock dictation would decrease welfare and the domestic economy would decline as a
:atof these policies and intemational pressures.
0 Tbis study suggests that the Indonesia pulp and paper industq be very
eptible to international pressures, so that Government of Indonesia must control
4etivitie.o of logging and cnvimmeatal practices for enterprises of thnber estate,
and p a p indushy. To empower Indonesian timberestate, W hcentives
=funding policy, business security, short beraucmcy and legal aspects, vertical
~Smtionor joint venture with pulp and paper indcan be simultaneously
rgernented.
To change the market structure of mompwnistic situation in the
~ s t i market,
c
Government of Indonesia must encourage some more investments
C@dpmills and p a p d s in the longterm.
T
aj
@words: policy and international p r e s m , monopsonistic, oligopolistic or
monopolistic pulpmills, income distribution and economic welfare.
A
c
3
7'
(D
2
-.
u"
P
d
ABSTRAK
ppn g
:9 9 g
a
2 g." " 32
a s *
s
1
Q
: 3 3 ' Q r
t c 5
2
.gs
BAMBmG WIDYANT,.
2005. Ekonomi hdustri Pulp dm Kerns Indonesia:
Sushr Analisis Simulasi Kebijakan dan ToLIntmasioaal. (HERMANTO
SIREGAR, sebap Ketua, BUNASOR S A N I M dm D.S PRIYARSONO, sebagai
Anggota Komisi Pcmbimbing).
Tujuan penelitian ini addah mengeraluasi dampak alkmatif kebijrlkrln dan
C$$gs
%3'%23 p
,.
3 K2 5 c
P+ 9e nf &c 2
, I+
Z Q ~ Q
r z P% a
z
tekamn intemsional yang relevan pada ekonomi dmestik pulp dan kern
hdonesia Masalah utama pada sektor ud ad& struktur pasar balm baku, seperti
t@m b h scrplh dan pulp untuk kilmg pengolah, dm is" boikot dan pmdikteau
~ s e d i u apulp dm kertas d e n . Swtu model ekowmi dimsun untuk
Q 3 3 5
w%&nggambdmindustri pdp dm k a h s sebagai sistem. Sepuluh dt&f
C
Q = 3
keijakan dm tekanan intanasiwal yang disusun untuk periode 1993-2003
3
Q
dl$mulasi dengan model e k o n o m d simultan, terdiri atas duapuluh lima
wm EkS
~.smaan
penlaku, t m w u k Lima permmaan terkat h a m ti@ penmaan teknis
4.
E
. -9 .: *
0 s., 2.
p:%luksi clan duabelas identitas pasar untuk menutup sistem. M d d tersebut
= q ~ g
m p * a a kebijakan pemaiatah endogen dalm papa domest* dm teLurm
s P E Q
~&masional eksogen dalam pasar dunia. Metode two-stage l w squures
~
(2SLS)
g -2 2
- 3
dr$makan untuk mengestimasi parameter persamaan p d a k u dalarn model.
28
55
Dengan menggunakan kriteria distribusi pendqatan dan kesejahteraan,
hGilnya mengindikasikan bahwa harga bahan baku serpih naik, hmrrgrr pulp turun dan
3 9 3
ft2 r$ 3
k$&binasinya men&
ekonami domestik dan kesejahmasyankat. Hal
-.
5
tc&enting di sini adalah bahwa kebijaLan tersebut alcan menghrndarkan pcrilalru
2. -.
m#nopsonis dadatau monopoWoligopoli industn pulp. J i h kebijakan tersebut
*r
Q *
zijgs
5
a
Q
$2
,
7s
g
f,
gr z g
Z E
z ;g
0
Q
-0
5 ;?
=S -9
P.
5
B
F
3
L
E
s
g
e
r
8t
-.g
2Q
s
E
$
3
8
$
7
dipbinasikan dengan kmaikan pmduksi bahan baku serpih melalui pluasan area
pgdengan arau tanpa penyaluran dana reboisasi, hasilnya akan m e m m
&mmi dmestk dm kesejahtm masyardcat Indwesia Jika penyaluran dana
reboisasi dihentikm, ldlangpulp menderita kerugian dan transfer pendapatan t d g g i
diterima oleh produsen bahan baku serpih.
P e n m a n suku bunga s e m keseluruhan maghasilkan p t m b u h m
ekmomi dornestik dan menyejdterakan masyardat Indonesia. Sedan*
kenailcan
suku bunga, embargo impor dan pendiktean persediaan pulp dm kertas menyebabkan
Endonesia kehibgan devisa. Kesejahmaan masyarakat Indonesia masih rneningbt
walaupun tejadi embargo impw, sedmgkan k e n d m suku bmga dm pendikean
persediaau menurunkan kesejahteraan. Ekonomi domestik &an menurun akibt
kebijakan dsn t e h m intemasional tersebut.
Penelitian ini menyamnkan bahwa karma industri tersebut sangat rentan
@wan) cerbdsp &an
internasiond, mdca Pemerintah Indonesia hams m a n y
~"1gkontrolseluruh aktivitas, temasuk pnhk-praktrk pembalakdpaanenan
W remi dm pengkelolaan lingkungan industri bahm baku serpih, pulp dan kertas.
I&& mendorong pabangunan hutan tanaman di Indonesia, t
,kebbijakan
@:ntif fiskd, penmaan, jaminan kepastian usaha dm kwlmanan, dau birokrasi
singkat, integrasi vertkd am kerjasama pmnoddm Qoint venture) M a t a u
mmi &pat dikombinttsikan secm simultan, sehingga pa& g i h m y a hutan
tZ%nan akan dapai memenuhi keselwuhan bahan baku serpih untuk kilmgpulp.
s
7
-
CBta Kunci: Kebijakan dm tekanan iniemasional, monopsuni, oligopoli atau munopoli b g p d p , distribusi penclapatan dan kesejahteraan ekonomi.
C
3
-.
c
z-.
u"