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Figure 10 : Growth of CPO Production and Demand Domestic + Export
Source : Lembito, 2013
3.3.
CPO Revenue and Cost Sub-model
From the yearly price both in Domestic Market price and export market CIF Rotterdam, the CPO price per ton in year 2000 was Rp. 2 millions domestically, while the CIF Rotterdam price was
USD 311. In year 2010 the export price was around US 900, slightly going down compared to the price in year 2008 which was US 948. USDA, 2010. The price drop is due to world economic
crisis in year 2008. The production cost was estimated USD 400 per ton and we assumed the logistics cost of USD 60- USD 80 per ton. From the computer simulation we can predict the total
revenue for Indonesia Palm Oil Industry is around in year 2030 to be around USD 53 billions or more than 3 times larger than that of the year 2010. And the gross profit excluding export tax seems
promising still. Lembito, 2013
Figure 11 :
Total Revenue and Total Cost
Source : Lembito, 2013
3.4. Model Validation
For model validation we use data Total Growth Area and Total CPO production from year 2000-2010. The actual data taken from statistics and computation were compared with data
simulation computed by Powersim Software studio 2005. From the analysis data we find that the forecast error is 3 and 3.4 . And the range of accepted errors in MAE is 5 . Model validations
were done to prove the fitness of the model.
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Figure 12 :
Model Validation for Area Growth
Source : Lembito, 2013
Figure 13 : Model Validation for Production Growth
Source : Lembito, 2013
4. CONCLUSION
A supply chain is the connected series of value activities concerned with the planning and controlling of raw materials, components and finished products from suppliers to the final
customers. Supply chain management provides an opportunity to the firms to look beyond their own organization and collaborate with the value chain partners for the mutual benefits. System dynamics
considers the causal relationships among variables and through simulation permits the evaluation of such impact on the operating performance of whole supply chain.
In the practical application this research developing of the System Dynamic model for analyzing the Supply Chain Model would be important especially for production and export of
Indonesian CPO Agro-industries. CPO which increases progressively since year 2000 to 2010 is one of the main export commodity for Indonesia. The existing CPO production growth and high
growth of domestic consumption and export market since year 2000 to year 2010, based on simulation model the growth will continue to 2030.
Biodiesel from palm oil based appears to be a practicable long-term solution for Indonesia to overcome the drop in world palm oil price for the past four years and to provide an alternative
renewable energy source to strengthen the country’s energy security. Although the fuel may offer many advantages as a direct fossil diesel fuel substitute, it also possesses several disadvantages such
as higher price compared to mineral diesel fuel and fluctuation in raw material price. It might also accelerate the current tropical deforestation in Indonesia due to rapid development of palm oil
plantations. Therefore, a comprehensive national food and energy policy should be formulated. Rahmadi, 2003
The growth CPO Agro-industries product yet faces main two risks that may hinder it. First, the unstable economic condition in Europe and USA may impact to world economy, and may reduce
the growth of CPO demand. Second, to find an alternative fuel other than fossil based fuels would be beneficial for Indonesia in order to be self sufficient in the energy sector.
This research in CPO in Indonesia describes the complex supply chain for Agro-industrial products. By designing and constructing system dynamic model it will help the agribusiness sector
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to predict some aspects of its behavior, such as plantations area growth, CPO production growth,
demand and price fluctuations, with the purpose of optimizing the potential growth of CPO and challenges faced by of CPO agro-industries in Indonesia. For food and energy security.
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