ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR THE REDUCTION OF GHG FROM TRANSPORT SECTOR IN INDONESIA

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Assessment of National Action Plan for the Reduction of
GHG from Transport Sector in Indonesia
Presented on:

The 3rd Travelling Conference of Asian-German Knowledge Network for
Transport and Logistics (AGKN), China, 13 February 2017

NOOR MAHMUDAH (Dr.)
Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Department of Civil Engineering,
Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Secterary, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS) of DIY
Member, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS)
Lecturer/Trainer, The Centre of Education and Training, Ministry of
Public Works, the Government of Indonesia

DANANG PARIKESIT (Prof.)
Professor of Transportation and Senior Researcher, The Centre for
Transportation and Logistics Studies, Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM)
President/Chairman, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS)

Board of Director, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
(EASTS)
Policy Adviser to the Minister of Public Works, the Government of
Indonesia

UMY-UGM-MTI

13 February 2017

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Outline


Indonesia in a glance



Indonesia global commitment in reducing GHG
emission from transport sector




Indonesia Transport Challenges: Paradox of high
economic growth



Study LPA: simulating national policy and
visioning the future



Future policy change: fundamental shift to more
stringent policy with consistent practice

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13 February 2017

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Indonesia in a glance

The fourth largest country by population in the world
after China, India and USA with 243.740 million people
in 2011 and average growth rate of 1.4 percent from
2000-2010, which is 66.13 percent of the people are
15-64 years of age group. Average family size is 4-5
person In 2011, Indonesia reached 72.37 of HDI (BPS,
2013).

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Indonesia in a glance (cont)




In 2012, Indonesia is the biggest economy in ASEAN
region and 17thbiggest in the world by GDP,
dominated by household expenditure (MGI, 2013,
BPS, 2013). Economy grew by average 5.2 percent per
year from 2000 to 2010 (MGI, 2012).



Java is as the economic center contributing 57.63
percent of GDP, which is dominated by secondary
and tertiary economic sector.



Indonesia now has 135 million middle income class
or equal to 60 percent of total population with
average income of USD 3.850 per capita (BI, 2013).
Unemployment rate continue to decrease to 6 percent

in 2012 from total 121 million work force (BPS, 2013),
with informal sector absorbing 54 percent of total
working force.

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2. Indonesia global commitment in
reducing GHG emission from transport
sector


Unilateral reducing GHG emission 26% from BAU
scenario by 2020 or 41% with international support



Presidential Decree No 61 Year 2011 on National

Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction (RAN GRK)



Transport Ministerial Regulation No 201 Year 2013 on
National Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction in
Transport Sector employing AVOID – SHIT –
IMPROVE approach



Recently received USD 14 Million international
support from German and UK

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13 February 2017

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3. Indonesia Transport Challenges:

Paradox of High Economic Growth





Rapid motorization and vehicle ownership
Diminishing share of public transport
Urbanization coexist with inefficiency
High consumption of energy and fuel subsidy

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Rapid Motorization and Vehicle Ownership
Shift from motorcycle to car due to increasing income
Growth of Vehicle number 2000-2011


Motor Vehicle Ownership 2000-2011

300

90 000 000
80 000 000

250

70 000 000

200

60 000 000
50 000 000

150

40 000 000


100

30 000 000
20 000 000

50

10 000 000

0

-

Passenger car

Bus

Bus


Truck

Truck

Motorcycle

Passenger car

Motorcycle

Source: Indonesian Central Statistic Agency, 2013
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Diminishing Public Transport Share
Dilapidating Public transport share and stigmatized as mode just for poor


Change of Mode Share, 2002 - 2010

Sourse: JUTPI, 2010
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Mode Share by Income 2010

Sourse: JAPTrapis 2011
13 February 2017

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Coexistence of Urbanization and
Urban Inefficiency
Urban and Rural Population Trend in
Indonesia

City

Km/h

Bandun
g

14.3

Bogor

15.32 Medan

23.4

Depok

21.4

24.06

Bekasi

21.86 Semarang

Tangera
ng
Bodetab
ek
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22

City
Surabaya

Makassar

Km/h
21

27

Palembang 28.54

20.12 Metro City

24.8
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High consumption of energy and
fuel subsidy
Fuel Consumption by Sector, 2011

Subsidized Fuel Consumption by Sector 2010

3%

1%
1%

38%

95%

Industry

Transportation

Household

Comercial

Water
Transport
SME
Fishery

Other
Source: MEMR, 2012
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Land
Transport

Source:: Reforminer, 2010
13 February 2017

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4. Study LPA simulating national action
plan and visioning future policy






Development Policy:
NLTDP (RPJMN), EMP (MP3EI)
Mitigation Action Plan:
NAP-GHG (RAN/RAD GRK)
Visioning future policy

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Methodology used in the development of the action plan

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+ Possible Impact of RPJMN 2010-2014
Policies
Economic growth 6.3 – 6.8% p.a

-

Possible effects
Increase of transport demand and activity

Development of urban public
services infrastructure.

-

Increase urbanization, mobility demand,
efficiency, and reduce urban transport
pollution

Development of 19,370 km of road,
inter-mode and inter-island
infrastructure

-

Increase connectivity, demand for based
transportation, inter-island people and
goods transportation, and sea transport

Enhancement transportation system and network in Jakarta, Bandung,
Surabaya, and Medan
Implementation of National
Multimode Transportation System

-

Urban electric railway transportation development
Energy savings and alternative
fuel
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More efficient urban transport system
Increase in urban mobility
Increase of transport efficiency
Reduce transport fuel consumption
Increase in urban public transport trips
More efficient commuting trips
Demand for energy efficiency vehicle
Decrease oil fuel consumption and increase
13 February 2017
alternative fuel utilization

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Possible impact of MP3EI 2010-2050
No
Policies
1 Promoting road infrastructure
construction

-

Possible effects
Increase private vehicle population and
demand, and increase road based freight

2

Revitalization of passenger and
freight sea and river based
transportation

-

Increase demand and volume of water
based transportation

3

Increasing and betterment of air
transportation

-

Increase air transportation demand and
volume

4

Development of rail transportation -

Increase rail based demand and volume

5

Reduction of cost for logistic
system

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-

Increase freight transport integration and
efficiency

13 February 2017

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No
1

Possible Impact of RAN/RAD GRK
Policies
Development and implementation of ITS

-

2

Traffic Impact Control

-

3

Congestion Charging and Road Pricing

-

4

Revitalization of public transport system

-

5

Development of BRT system

-

6

Development of NMT

-

7

Electrification of railway system

-

8

Emission standardization, labeling and emission
based tax and
CNG converter kits

-

Eco driving and speed limitation

-

9

10

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Effects
Better travel plan and fuel
efficiency,
Reduce congestion and emission
Reduce private car usage,
congestion, and fuel consumption
Increase of public transport share
and reduce private vehicle travel
Increase mode share of BRT, and
fuel efficiency
Better NMT share and fuel
efficiency
Increase rail passenger and shift
from private vehicle
Reduce fuel consumption and
emission
Reduce fuel consumption and CO2
emission
Reduce fuel consumption and
vehicle emission
13 February 2017

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Improved RAN GRK Scenario
Business as Usual - BAU

Improve RAN GRK



Respecting current policy
taken by the government



Additional policy beyond RAN
GRK



Predicting impact of current
development and economic
policy: RPJMN, MP3EI



Introduction of more AVOID
policy options



Advance vehicle technology

Elaborate scenario for current
policies



Fuel pricing and alternative
fuels

Considering dynamic in
policy implementation



Road pricing and behavioral
change





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UMY-UGM-MTI

1. Scenario I BAU (RPJP/RPJMN+MP3EI)
Scenario I Estimation of total CO2 emission

13 February 2017

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2. Scenario II RAN GRK

Scenario II Estimation of total CO2 emission

13 February 2017

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3. Scenario III IMPROVED RAN GRK

Scenario III Estimation of total CO2 emission

13 February 2017

Scenarios Comparison

+
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

BAU(MP3EI) (A->S)

54,484

92,944

123,025

150,744

158,543

178,203

198,983

223,020

224,209

226,99

BAU(MP3EI) (S->A)

54,484

92,944

123,025

150,744

158,650

178,653

199,951

224,737

226,412

229,67

RAN GRK A+S+I (A->S)

54,484

92,944

123,025

151,069

132,990

122,673

135,845

149,527

149,645

151,45

RAN GRK A+S+I (S->A)

54,484

92,944

123,025

151,069

133,394

124,975

140,198

156,486

158,719

162,68

RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (A->S)

54,484

92,944

123,025

139,068

90,959

74,430

78,664

82,621

82,243

83,54

RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (S->A)

54,484

92,944

123,025

139,132

92,017

79,513

88,091

97,630

101,697

107,54

TTW CO2 (million kgCO2/yr)

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13 February 2017

+ TESTING OF SCENARIO
EMISSION PER CAPITA
(Ton eCO2/per Capita-year)
16% by 2025
Business as Usual

RAN GRK

Improved RAN GRK

CO- BENEFITS
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13 February 2017

Scenarios Comparison

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The analyses for scenario comparisons for total emission are as follow
1. Similar with the emission figure for per capita emission, the results from total
emission also show that IMPROVED RAN scenario have better performance
compared to RAN GRK .
2. The RAN GRK will reduce the total emission by about 25 Mton CO2 to about 132
Mton in 2025 compared to BAU. On the other hand, IMPROVED RAN scenario will
further reduce total CO2 emission by about 67 Mton to only 90 Mton by 2025.
3. The significant difference of results between A->S and S->A sequence for all three
(BAU, RAN & IMPROVED RAN) can be seen in 2050. Significant difference especially
can be seen in IMPROVED RAN scenario where the A->S sequence can reduce the
total emission down to 80 Mton (lower that 90 Mton in 2025). At the same time, the
S->A sequence cannot even hold the emission causing rebound of total emission to
107 Mton by 2050.
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13 February 2017

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Co – Benefit from policy improvement


Transport policies devised GHG mitigation, transport
efficiency, system competitiveness and energy
consumption.



Policy improvement will create co-benefit in energy
consumption (61% reduction) congestion relieve
(35%).



Transport competitiveness, energy efficiency and
GHG emission reduction will achieving global
commitment as well as improving the economic and
local environmental condition

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13 February 2017

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5. Visioning Future Policy



Significant improvement is needed to achieve
national commitment and meet global target
Introduction of various “avoid” policies:
promotion of TOD, higher fuel pricing,



Shift to more advance vehicle technology and
cleaner fuel options



Push policy for transport behavioral changes:
road and higher fuel pricing.



Capacity building to manage and safe guard
consistent policy implementation

UMY-UGM-MTI

13 February 2017

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Combination of transport
competitiveness, energy
efficiency and GHG
emission reduction will
help the Indonesian
government achieving
global climate change
commitment as well as
improving the economic
and local environmental
condition

UMY-UGM-MTI

13 February 2017

AGKN e.V.

Dr. Irina Dovbischuk

Wilhelm-Herbst-Str. 12 28359 Bremen

Assistant Professor
Management Board / Director

Chinese Embassy in
Jakarta
Indonesia

Asian-German Knowledge Network for
Transport and Logistics (AGKN) e.V.
Wilhelm-Herbst-Straße 12
28359 Bremen

or

Phone
eMail
www

General Consular in
Surabaya
Indonesia

Our Sign: Dov

Date: 22.01.17

Invitation and support letter
Dear Sir or Madam,
The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport and Logistics e.V. organises
the Third Travelling Conference to Asia with support of the German Federal Ministry
of Education and Research. The travelling conferences has three stopovers - in China (2017-02-13), in South Korea (2017-02-15) and on the Philippines (2017-02-17).
The Zhongyuan University of Technology is the host of the event in Zhengzhou,
China on the 13rd of February 2017. We invite
Name : Ms. Noor Mahmudah
Date of birth : October 3 1970
Profession : Civil Servant / Lecturer in Department of Civil Engineering Universitas
Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Indonesia Passport No : A 7181774
Required visa valid for : Short visit visa
Date of arrival: 12 February 2017
Date of departure : 14 February 2017
to make a speech in the framework of the conference in Zhengzhou, China.
The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport e.V. will reimburse
- the economy return-ticket up to 400,- Euro and
- the accommodation expenses to max. 3 nights, 94,- Euro each.
Kind regards,

Dr. Irina Dovbischuk

Association’s corporate seat: Bremen I Management board: Prof. Dr. H.-D. Haasis (Chairman)
Prof. Dr. D. Sackmann (Deputy Chairman) I Prof. Dr. A. Jattke (Treasure)
Bank account: Die Sparkasse Bremen I SWIFT-BIC: SBREDE22XXX I IBAN: DE 8029 0501 0100 8147 8307

+49 421 218 - 66766
dovbischuk@agkn.de
www.agkn.de

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ZHONGYUAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

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