ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR THE REDUCTION OF GHG FROM TRANSPORT SECTOR IN INDONESIA
+
Assessment of National Action Plan for the Reduction of
GHG from Transport Sector in Indonesia
Presented on:
The 3rd Travelling Conference of Asian-German Knowledge Network for
Transport and Logistics (AGKN), China, 13 February 2017
NOOR MAHMUDAH (Dr.)
Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Department of Civil Engineering,
Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Secterary, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS) of DIY
Member, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS)
Lecturer/Trainer, The Centre of Education and Training, Ministry of
Public Works, the Government of Indonesia
DANANG PARIKESIT (Prof.)
Professor of Transportation and Senior Researcher, The Centre for
Transportation and Logistics Studies, Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM)
President/Chairman, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS)
Board of Director, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
(EASTS)
Policy Adviser to the Minister of Public Works, the Government of
Indonesia
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Outline
•
Indonesia in a glance
•
Indonesia global commitment in reducing GHG
emission from transport sector
•
Indonesia Transport Challenges: Paradox of high
economic growth
•
Study LPA: simulating national policy and
visioning the future
•
Future policy change: fundamental shift to more
stringent policy with consistent practice
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
•
Indonesia in a glance
The fourth largest country by population in the world
after China, India and USA with 243.740 million people
in 2011 and average growth rate of 1.4 percent from
2000-2010, which is 66.13 percent of the people are
15-64 years of age group. Average family size is 4-5
person In 2011, Indonesia reached 72.37 of HDI (BPS,
2013).
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Indonesia in a glance (cont)
•
In 2012, Indonesia is the biggest economy in ASEAN
region and 17thbiggest in the world by GDP,
dominated by household expenditure (MGI, 2013,
BPS, 2013). Economy grew by average 5.2 percent per
year from 2000 to 2010 (MGI, 2012).
•
Java is as the economic center contributing 57.63
percent of GDP, which is dominated by secondary
and tertiary economic sector.
•
Indonesia now has 135 million middle income class
or equal to 60 percent of total population with
average income of USD 3.850 per capita (BI, 2013).
Unemployment rate continue to decrease to 6 percent
in 2012 from total 121 million work force (BPS, 2013),
with informal sector absorbing 54 percent of total
working force.
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
2. Indonesia global commitment in
reducing GHG emission from transport
sector
▪
Unilateral reducing GHG emission 26% from BAU
scenario by 2020 or 41% with international support
▪
Presidential Decree No 61 Year 2011 on National
Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction (RAN GRK)
▪
Transport Ministerial Regulation No 201 Year 2013 on
National Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction in
Transport Sector employing AVOID – SHIT –
IMPROVE approach
▪
Recently received USD 14 Million international
support from German and UK
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
3. Indonesia Transport Challenges:
Paradox of High Economic Growth
▪
▪
▪
▪
Rapid motorization and vehicle ownership
Diminishing share of public transport
Urbanization coexist with inefficiency
High consumption of energy and fuel subsidy
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Rapid Motorization and Vehicle Ownership
Shift from motorcycle to car due to increasing income
Growth of Vehicle number 2000-2011
Motor Vehicle Ownership 2000-2011
300
90 000 000
80 000 000
250
70 000 000
200
60 000 000
50 000 000
150
40 000 000
100
30 000 000
20 000 000
50
10 000 000
0
-
Passenger car
Bus
Bus
Truck
Truck
Motorcycle
Passenger car
Motorcycle
Source: Indonesian Central Statistic Agency, 2013
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Diminishing Public Transport Share
Dilapidating Public transport share and stigmatized as mode just for poor
Change of Mode Share, 2002 - 2010
Sourse: JUTPI, 2010
UMY-UGM-MTI
Mode Share by Income 2010
Sourse: JAPTrapis 2011
13 February 2017
+
Coexistence of Urbanization and
Urban Inefficiency
Urban and Rural Population Trend in
Indonesia
City
Km/h
Bandun
g
14.3
Bogor
15.32 Medan
23.4
Depok
21.4
24.06
Bekasi
21.86 Semarang
Tangera
ng
Bodetab
ek
UMY-UGM-MTI
22
City
Surabaya
Makassar
Km/h
21
27
Palembang 28.54
20.12 Metro City
24.8
13 February 2017
+
High consumption of energy and
fuel subsidy
Fuel Consumption by Sector, 2011
Subsidized Fuel Consumption by Sector 2010
3%
1%
1%
38%
95%
Industry
Transportation
Household
Comercial
Water
Transport
SME
Fishery
Other
Source: MEMR, 2012
UMY-UGM-MTI
Land
Transport
Source:: Reforminer, 2010
13 February 2017
+
4. Study LPA simulating national action
plan and visioning future policy
▪
▪
▪
Development Policy:
NLTDP (RPJMN), EMP (MP3EI)
Mitigation Action Plan:
NAP-GHG (RAN/RAD GRK)
Visioning future policy
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Methodology used in the development of the action plan
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+ Possible Impact of RPJMN 2010-2014
Policies
Economic growth 6.3 – 6.8% p.a
-
Possible effects
Increase of transport demand and activity
Development of urban public
services infrastructure.
-
Increase urbanization, mobility demand,
efficiency, and reduce urban transport
pollution
Development of 19,370 km of road,
inter-mode and inter-island
infrastructure
-
Increase connectivity, demand for based
transportation, inter-island people and
goods transportation, and sea transport
Enhancement transportation system and network in Jakarta, Bandung,
Surabaya, and Medan
Implementation of National
Multimode Transportation System
-
Urban electric railway transportation development
Energy savings and alternative
fuel
UMY-UGM-MTI
-
More efficient urban transport system
Increase in urban mobility
Increase of transport efficiency
Reduce transport fuel consumption
Increase in urban public transport trips
More efficient commuting trips
Demand for energy efficiency vehicle
Decrease oil fuel consumption and increase
13 February 2017
alternative fuel utilization
+
Possible impact of MP3EI 2010-2050
No
Policies
1 Promoting road infrastructure
construction
-
Possible effects
Increase private vehicle population and
demand, and increase road based freight
2
Revitalization of passenger and
freight sea and river based
transportation
-
Increase demand and volume of water
based transportation
3
Increasing and betterment of air
transportation
-
Increase air transportation demand and
volume
4
Development of rail transportation -
Increase rail based demand and volume
5
Reduction of cost for logistic
system
UMY-UGM-MTI
-
Increase freight transport integration and
efficiency
13 February 2017
+
No
1
Possible Impact of RAN/RAD GRK
Policies
Development and implementation of ITS
-
2
Traffic Impact Control
-
3
Congestion Charging and Road Pricing
-
4
Revitalization of public transport system
-
5
Development of BRT system
-
6
Development of NMT
-
7
Electrification of railway system
-
8
Emission standardization, labeling and emission
based tax and
CNG converter kits
-
Eco driving and speed limitation
-
9
10
UMY-UGM-MTI
-
Effects
Better travel plan and fuel
efficiency,
Reduce congestion and emission
Reduce private car usage,
congestion, and fuel consumption
Increase of public transport share
and reduce private vehicle travel
Increase mode share of BRT, and
fuel efficiency
Better NMT share and fuel
efficiency
Increase rail passenger and shift
from private vehicle
Reduce fuel consumption and
emission
Reduce fuel consumption and CO2
emission
Reduce fuel consumption and
vehicle emission
13 February 2017
+
Improved RAN GRK Scenario
Business as Usual - BAU
Improve RAN GRK
Respecting current policy
taken by the government
Additional policy beyond RAN
GRK
Predicting impact of current
development and economic
policy: RPJMN, MP3EI
Introduction of more AVOID
policy options
Advance vehicle technology
Elaborate scenario for current
policies
Fuel pricing and alternative
fuels
Considering dynamic in
policy implementation
Road pricing and behavioral
change
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
UMY-UGM-MTI
1. Scenario I BAU (RPJP/RPJMN+MP3EI)
Scenario I Estimation of total CO2 emission
13 February 2017
+
UMY-UGM-MTI
2. Scenario II RAN GRK
Scenario II Estimation of total CO2 emission
13 February 2017
+
UMY-UGM-MTI
3. Scenario III IMPROVED RAN GRK
Scenario III Estimation of total CO2 emission
13 February 2017
Scenarios Comparison
+
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BAU(MP3EI) (A->S)
54,484
92,944
123,025
150,744
158,543
178,203
198,983
223,020
224,209
226,99
BAU(MP3EI) (S->A)
54,484
92,944
123,025
150,744
158,650
178,653
199,951
224,737
226,412
229,67
RAN GRK A+S+I (A->S)
54,484
92,944
123,025
151,069
132,990
122,673
135,845
149,527
149,645
151,45
RAN GRK A+S+I (S->A)
54,484
92,944
123,025
151,069
133,394
124,975
140,198
156,486
158,719
162,68
RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (A->S)
54,484
92,944
123,025
139,068
90,959
74,430
78,664
82,621
82,243
83,54
RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (S->A)
54,484
92,944
123,025
139,132
92,017
79,513
88,091
97,630
101,697
107,54
TTW CO2 (million kgCO2/yr)
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+ TESTING OF SCENARIO
EMISSION PER CAPITA
(Ton eCO2/per Capita-year)
16% by 2025
Business as Usual
RAN GRK
Improved RAN GRK
CO- BENEFITS
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
Scenarios Comparison
+
The analyses for scenario comparisons for total emission are as follow
1. Similar with the emission figure for per capita emission, the results from total
emission also show that IMPROVED RAN scenario have better performance
compared to RAN GRK .
2. The RAN GRK will reduce the total emission by about 25 Mton CO2 to about 132
Mton in 2025 compared to BAU. On the other hand, IMPROVED RAN scenario will
further reduce total CO2 emission by about 67 Mton to only 90 Mton by 2025.
3. The significant difference of results between A->S and S->A sequence for all three
(BAU, RAN & IMPROVED RAN) can be seen in 2050. Significant difference especially
can be seen in IMPROVED RAN scenario where the A->S sequence can reduce the
total emission down to 80 Mton (lower that 90 Mton in 2025). At the same time, the
S->A sequence cannot even hold the emission causing rebound of total emission to
107 Mton by 2050.
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Co – Benefit from policy improvement
▪
Transport policies devised GHG mitigation, transport
efficiency, system competitiveness and energy
consumption.
▪
Policy improvement will create co-benefit in energy
consumption (61% reduction) congestion relieve
(35%).
▪
Transport competitiveness, energy efficiency and
GHG emission reduction will achieving global
commitment as well as improving the economic and
local environmental condition
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
5. Visioning Future Policy
▪
▪
Significant improvement is needed to achieve
national commitment and meet global target
Introduction of various “avoid” policies:
promotion of TOD, higher fuel pricing,
▪
Shift to more advance vehicle technology and
cleaner fuel options
▪
Push policy for transport behavioral changes:
road and higher fuel pricing.
▪
Capacity building to manage and safe guard
consistent policy implementation
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Combination of transport
competitiveness, energy
efficiency and GHG
emission reduction will
help the Indonesian
government achieving
global climate change
commitment as well as
improving the economic
and local environmental
condition
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
AGKN e.V.
Dr. Irina Dovbischuk
Wilhelm-Herbst-Str. 12 28359 Bremen
Assistant Professor
Management Board / Director
Chinese Embassy in
Jakarta
Indonesia
Asian-German Knowledge Network for
Transport and Logistics (AGKN) e.V.
Wilhelm-Herbst-Straße 12
28359 Bremen
or
Phone
eMail
www
General Consular in
Surabaya
Indonesia
Our Sign: Dov
Date: 22.01.17
Invitation and support letter
Dear Sir or Madam,
The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport and Logistics e.V. organises
the Third Travelling Conference to Asia with support of the German Federal Ministry
of Education and Research. The travelling conferences has three stopovers - in China (2017-02-13), in South Korea (2017-02-15) and on the Philippines (2017-02-17).
The Zhongyuan University of Technology is the host of the event in Zhengzhou,
China on the 13rd of February 2017. We invite
Name : Ms. Noor Mahmudah
Date of birth : October 3 1970
Profession : Civil Servant / Lecturer in Department of Civil Engineering Universitas
Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Indonesia Passport No : A 7181774
Required visa valid for : Short visit visa
Date of arrival: 12 February 2017
Date of departure : 14 February 2017
to make a speech in the framework of the conference in Zhengzhou, China.
The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport e.V. will reimburse
- the economy return-ticket up to 400,- Euro and
- the accommodation expenses to max. 3 nights, 94,- Euro each.
Kind regards,
Dr. Irina Dovbischuk
Association’s corporate seat: Bremen I Management board: Prof. Dr. H.-D. Haasis (Chairman)
Prof. Dr. D. Sackmann (Deputy Chairman) I Prof. Dr. A. Jattke (Treasure)
Bank account: Die Sparkasse Bremen I SWIFT-BIC: SBREDE22XXX I IBAN: DE 8029 0501 0100 8147 8307
+49 421 218 - 66766
dovbischuk@agkn.de
www.agkn.de
Y &:.8
(L
ZHONGYUAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
I
+#
(I()I\*T"F,R HITil11 I-{A l\tr [}BfiOK
r&il
,HlHf;'ff+l'l ffi+HFffiq1B
Hl]4ffi 450007
tsiff 0086-371-62506888
:
:
:
14
itl
:
http ://www .zzti. ed u . cn
zweztnu
H
J(
-. AilEfEq+lF/Agenda.
\ +g>+ LfrZ4ltist
of Main
Parlicipants.....
r. +*THLRZ+eHXRF:rt/contact.
....01
........03
.'..05
*ry
-.. B trEEfrF Aeenda
A Stopover of the Traveling Conference
"Energy Efficiency & climate change Mitigation in Line with
urban Mobility & its Interconnection with Transportation Networks,,
on Logistics Management and Engineering inzhengzhou, china
EH
fttrEJ
Date
Time
2.rt-t2
9:00-22:00
$ahE
fr.frx
ju ,H
Activitv--
Principal
Place
-eC"Ntr trliileicmp &
Hotel)
*G- tt1
),J
Jennv
Ofltce 224
T$-+
Opening Ceremony
7T+;t.
9:00-9:30
L.=
-
=
\tr'elcome
='=-r_i+€E,ilt(4ft
Address
Tan Heng
)E
L=
Prof. Du Jianhui.Vice president of Z\JT
2.4;7J Croup Photo
+tri+B
Seminar
Liu Zhanguo. Finance Department of ./
Government Development Research Center
Atqr1.
-rtrxSH*A
2. Dr. Irina Dovbischuk: Energy Efficiency in
Warehousing (AGKN e.V.:rL 1,..E q lfr td +h n + ,,\ +.1f
)
3.Dr. Noor Mahmudah:Transportion planning and \
Engineering ( University of Muhammadiyah
t4,oyyntrlfrl
.t r
1, 4 -=_:1 ,1 j- t; y
1. Director
9:30- l0:30
2.13
Mondav
10:30- l0:45
i.!ttri::,
qRE*tf
+
Hans-
Dietrich
Fft)'"/ix1
Haasis
v-f,+Et
jxffi
LEftr
6 LJ *91
&i Coffee Break
&"+ 4E tr_ )T. t+ +
2.Deputy Director
Lu Qiuyi, Henan Supply Chain
^_+)
Management Association
Hans-
Dietrich
Haasis
t/-n
rt'A' l* r_L#E trr,b
3.Prof. Carlos Jahn: Digitalization in Sea ports-Key
^
l
307
ZUT
1.Prof. Dirk Sackman:Vehicle Routing problems with
Time Windows and Multiple Dumping Sites in Waste
Collection( Merseburg University of Applied Science
F 41, XilAts.,4
I\
'r- -ti:- +r<
2=
<
Meeting
Room 307
North
Campus of
+tri+tr Seminar
l0:45- l2:05
*lh->
I r.l\!-1-
L hia
tr Lf {
Driver to Increase
Efficiency(Hamburg-Harburg
University of Technolo ey iXff-a.;'B E I ll- x+)
zl.Prof. Stefan Voss: Future Trends in Logistics: A
Biased View on Urban Mobility' and
lts
Interconnection with Transport Networks(University
of Hamburg ;,€ E ill+ f.+)
+
l2:10-13:30
E
+roi+B
14:00-15:20
HE€
Dinner
Taotao
Seminar
l.Prof. Hans-Dietrich Haasis: Smart City Design and
Climate Friendly Business Models (University of
Bremen T *f+ /ri,)
2.Prof.Wang Dongyun,Vice president of Huanghuai
Universityl
**
Hans-
Dietrich
#_{x., F W+ ln
Haasis
3.Prof. Andreas Jattke: To Be Defines (lngolstadt
Un i vers ity of App I i ed Techno I o gy +
R ifi, t+++ [.1 /H
Jxill
iit,)-ri)
'-:
f,Ptr\ ea,Y'r'j
\
.
+wffi
4.Dr. Li Ziyao, School of Economics&Management of
zur +*+-t$+,
4E
*il.
15',20-15:40
L /,-l\.!-r
t+lii,]-;+E tr+ fft
), +li
'7t-1L
}.LI
1>
.1,
coffee Break
!/!i-Pu
-i *
*'1.
'aT U:- *1.
+roi+tr
307
Seminar
l.Prof.Cuido Siestrup: Requirements on SCM
4.0-readiness (University of Furtrvagen Fe E 4 =-;:.
x+)
2.t3
15:40-17.,20
Monday
2. Dr. Wang Haiquan. School of Electronics &
Information of ZIJT -I,e+-i++ , + Ra+l:,1q+ l1
,'t-'? l'1r3.Prof. Holger Schi.itt: How to Combine Sustainability
and Efficiency in the Design of Logistic Processes
(lnstitute of Transportation Economics & Logistics ra
Hans-
Dietrich
Haasis
,L+
#t4:fr+ k+hrt+vft)
4.Prof. Carsten Dorn: Load Securing in the lntermodal
Transport Chain (Bremenhaven University of Applied
t /r*)
Technology T. * f+ + + fr Fl tL
5.Dr.Wen Shengjun, Vice Dean of School of
Electronics & Information of ZUT
rf,
+ IRL+Fn+.+ E
(
r+d
H.-€
No
List of Main Participants, in No Particular Order)
#4
Na-"
,l&,Etl
t
I
Hans-Dietrich
1
2
Haasis
Irina Dovbischuk
+4nkry'+
Gender
-' *-t+t + tr''i
Carsten Dorn
.nq
=i- +_\ft_WF
NIM
Chairman of the lnternational Craduate School for Dvnamics in
Logistics of Universitv of Bremen
*tP
-u-1€€+6[fE +h
Managing Director of Asi an-GermanyKnor.vl
k+,\i11
T
J
yt
Institution & Title
frtw
Netw ork e.V.
*f++'t- r! H i{.t x # q#r kfu kA i1+
Chairman of Transportation and Logistics Department of Bremen
Haven Universitl, ofApplied Technology'
ii+
iF.+ + ,\
Director ^4*
of the Fraunhofer Center for Maritime Logistics and
Services CML of Hamburg-Harburg University of Technology
:r.E-+,
frtw
ed ge
rYX+)"+q+hinh
4
Carlos Jahn
5
Andreas Jattke
6
Dirk Sackmann
H tvt
7
Guido Siestrup
fr tvt
8
Stefan Voss
frtw
@
Noor Mahmudah
xlF
F,t+Hie il-x+
l0
Holger Schi.itt
Ftw
i#tt-irt + krl )r-+ f"_+r.i*.
Professor of lnstitute of Transportation Economics & Logistics
-!rl Ll: F-
1l
t2
13
,^l
d.{.
Hwr
Liu Zhanguo
F 4kv,t
Lu Qiuyi
+ +rl
L^t
L')'
Wang Dongyun
Professor of Ingolstadt University of Applied Technology
,.eEEnHt*4)-r*4k
Professor of Merseburg University of Applied Science
1,+-EiE++EI4Rlr ++k{X- Professor of University of Furtwagen
jqa
r
l4li
+ X B ffi, ++ ++ r"L fr1 +{ ,t t + +kf;
frtw
iSt
pr of University of Muhammadiyah
A&fr kR.q f, +,\lr.tftaHmA4[t
Director of Finance Department of Govemment Development
Research Center
frtw
Ftw
)4
A
Htr-#EEfi >H +EI *<
Deputy Director of Henan Supply Chain Management Association
+a a=
l-:tt-E,l)a? ;f dr 4t'-
V
Vice President of Huanshuai Llniversitv
J
t4
l5
t6
t7
,t}r€€r
Du Jianhui
*1tk+-t
Zheng Qiusheng
I a\,frfr /t
)-en
Wang Xiaolei
Aax,t
Liu Weiguang
;-VdAl
f-fi-HH/
18
19
20
2l
22
ZJ
24
25
26
Song Changming
t,tLAt
It3 , :-' 7,r!/
Zhao Zhiquan
KxH
r
Zhang Wenyong
***r
Li Mujie
jg
rjp
,la t
t=_t
Tan Heng
ar--lLl
'f4ttl
/l\
l'J
4
ta fr'ft
l
llfL 'iid --f /
Wen Shengjun
I *#r
Li Ziyao
'i4 x
Assessment of National Action Plan for the Reduction of
GHG from Transport Sector in Indonesia
Presented on:
The 3rd Travelling Conference of Asian-German Knowledge Network for
Transport and Logistics (AGKN), China, 13 February 2017
NOOR MAHMUDAH (Dr.)
Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Department of Civil Engineering,
Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Secterary, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS) of DIY
Member, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS)
Lecturer/Trainer, The Centre of Education and Training, Ministry of
Public Works, the Government of Indonesia
DANANG PARIKESIT (Prof.)
Professor of Transportation and Senior Researcher, The Centre for
Transportation and Logistics Studies, Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM)
President/Chairman, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS)
Board of Director, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
(EASTS)
Policy Adviser to the Minister of Public Works, the Government of
Indonesia
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Outline
•
Indonesia in a glance
•
Indonesia global commitment in reducing GHG
emission from transport sector
•
Indonesia Transport Challenges: Paradox of high
economic growth
•
Study LPA: simulating national policy and
visioning the future
•
Future policy change: fundamental shift to more
stringent policy with consistent practice
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
•
Indonesia in a glance
The fourth largest country by population in the world
after China, India and USA with 243.740 million people
in 2011 and average growth rate of 1.4 percent from
2000-2010, which is 66.13 percent of the people are
15-64 years of age group. Average family size is 4-5
person In 2011, Indonesia reached 72.37 of HDI (BPS,
2013).
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Indonesia in a glance (cont)
•
In 2012, Indonesia is the biggest economy in ASEAN
region and 17thbiggest in the world by GDP,
dominated by household expenditure (MGI, 2013,
BPS, 2013). Economy grew by average 5.2 percent per
year from 2000 to 2010 (MGI, 2012).
•
Java is as the economic center contributing 57.63
percent of GDP, which is dominated by secondary
and tertiary economic sector.
•
Indonesia now has 135 million middle income class
or equal to 60 percent of total population with
average income of USD 3.850 per capita (BI, 2013).
Unemployment rate continue to decrease to 6 percent
in 2012 from total 121 million work force (BPS, 2013),
with informal sector absorbing 54 percent of total
working force.
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
2. Indonesia global commitment in
reducing GHG emission from transport
sector
▪
Unilateral reducing GHG emission 26% from BAU
scenario by 2020 or 41% with international support
▪
Presidential Decree No 61 Year 2011 on National
Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction (RAN GRK)
▪
Transport Ministerial Regulation No 201 Year 2013 on
National Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction in
Transport Sector employing AVOID – SHIT –
IMPROVE approach
▪
Recently received USD 14 Million international
support from German and UK
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
3. Indonesia Transport Challenges:
Paradox of High Economic Growth
▪
▪
▪
▪
Rapid motorization and vehicle ownership
Diminishing share of public transport
Urbanization coexist with inefficiency
High consumption of energy and fuel subsidy
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Rapid Motorization and Vehicle Ownership
Shift from motorcycle to car due to increasing income
Growth of Vehicle number 2000-2011
Motor Vehicle Ownership 2000-2011
300
90 000 000
80 000 000
250
70 000 000
200
60 000 000
50 000 000
150
40 000 000
100
30 000 000
20 000 000
50
10 000 000
0
-
Passenger car
Bus
Bus
Truck
Truck
Motorcycle
Passenger car
Motorcycle
Source: Indonesian Central Statistic Agency, 2013
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Diminishing Public Transport Share
Dilapidating Public transport share and stigmatized as mode just for poor
Change of Mode Share, 2002 - 2010
Sourse: JUTPI, 2010
UMY-UGM-MTI
Mode Share by Income 2010
Sourse: JAPTrapis 2011
13 February 2017
+
Coexistence of Urbanization and
Urban Inefficiency
Urban and Rural Population Trend in
Indonesia
City
Km/h
Bandun
g
14.3
Bogor
15.32 Medan
23.4
Depok
21.4
24.06
Bekasi
21.86 Semarang
Tangera
ng
Bodetab
ek
UMY-UGM-MTI
22
City
Surabaya
Makassar
Km/h
21
27
Palembang 28.54
20.12 Metro City
24.8
13 February 2017
+
High consumption of energy and
fuel subsidy
Fuel Consumption by Sector, 2011
Subsidized Fuel Consumption by Sector 2010
3%
1%
1%
38%
95%
Industry
Transportation
Household
Comercial
Water
Transport
SME
Fishery
Other
Source: MEMR, 2012
UMY-UGM-MTI
Land
Transport
Source:: Reforminer, 2010
13 February 2017
+
4. Study LPA simulating national action
plan and visioning future policy
▪
▪
▪
Development Policy:
NLTDP (RPJMN), EMP (MP3EI)
Mitigation Action Plan:
NAP-GHG (RAN/RAD GRK)
Visioning future policy
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Methodology used in the development of the action plan
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+ Possible Impact of RPJMN 2010-2014
Policies
Economic growth 6.3 – 6.8% p.a
-
Possible effects
Increase of transport demand and activity
Development of urban public
services infrastructure.
-
Increase urbanization, mobility demand,
efficiency, and reduce urban transport
pollution
Development of 19,370 km of road,
inter-mode and inter-island
infrastructure
-
Increase connectivity, demand for based
transportation, inter-island people and
goods transportation, and sea transport
Enhancement transportation system and network in Jakarta, Bandung,
Surabaya, and Medan
Implementation of National
Multimode Transportation System
-
Urban electric railway transportation development
Energy savings and alternative
fuel
UMY-UGM-MTI
-
More efficient urban transport system
Increase in urban mobility
Increase of transport efficiency
Reduce transport fuel consumption
Increase in urban public transport trips
More efficient commuting trips
Demand for energy efficiency vehicle
Decrease oil fuel consumption and increase
13 February 2017
alternative fuel utilization
+
Possible impact of MP3EI 2010-2050
No
Policies
1 Promoting road infrastructure
construction
-
Possible effects
Increase private vehicle population and
demand, and increase road based freight
2
Revitalization of passenger and
freight sea and river based
transportation
-
Increase demand and volume of water
based transportation
3
Increasing and betterment of air
transportation
-
Increase air transportation demand and
volume
4
Development of rail transportation -
Increase rail based demand and volume
5
Reduction of cost for logistic
system
UMY-UGM-MTI
-
Increase freight transport integration and
efficiency
13 February 2017
+
No
1
Possible Impact of RAN/RAD GRK
Policies
Development and implementation of ITS
-
2
Traffic Impact Control
-
3
Congestion Charging and Road Pricing
-
4
Revitalization of public transport system
-
5
Development of BRT system
-
6
Development of NMT
-
7
Electrification of railway system
-
8
Emission standardization, labeling and emission
based tax and
CNG converter kits
-
Eco driving and speed limitation
-
9
10
UMY-UGM-MTI
-
Effects
Better travel plan and fuel
efficiency,
Reduce congestion and emission
Reduce private car usage,
congestion, and fuel consumption
Increase of public transport share
and reduce private vehicle travel
Increase mode share of BRT, and
fuel efficiency
Better NMT share and fuel
efficiency
Increase rail passenger and shift
from private vehicle
Reduce fuel consumption and
emission
Reduce fuel consumption and CO2
emission
Reduce fuel consumption and
vehicle emission
13 February 2017
+
Improved RAN GRK Scenario
Business as Usual - BAU
Improve RAN GRK
Respecting current policy
taken by the government
Additional policy beyond RAN
GRK
Predicting impact of current
development and economic
policy: RPJMN, MP3EI
Introduction of more AVOID
policy options
Advance vehicle technology
Elaborate scenario for current
policies
Fuel pricing and alternative
fuels
Considering dynamic in
policy implementation
Road pricing and behavioral
change
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
UMY-UGM-MTI
1. Scenario I BAU (RPJP/RPJMN+MP3EI)
Scenario I Estimation of total CO2 emission
13 February 2017
+
UMY-UGM-MTI
2. Scenario II RAN GRK
Scenario II Estimation of total CO2 emission
13 February 2017
+
UMY-UGM-MTI
3. Scenario III IMPROVED RAN GRK
Scenario III Estimation of total CO2 emission
13 February 2017
Scenarios Comparison
+
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BAU(MP3EI) (A->S)
54,484
92,944
123,025
150,744
158,543
178,203
198,983
223,020
224,209
226,99
BAU(MP3EI) (S->A)
54,484
92,944
123,025
150,744
158,650
178,653
199,951
224,737
226,412
229,67
RAN GRK A+S+I (A->S)
54,484
92,944
123,025
151,069
132,990
122,673
135,845
149,527
149,645
151,45
RAN GRK A+S+I (S->A)
54,484
92,944
123,025
151,069
133,394
124,975
140,198
156,486
158,719
162,68
RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (A->S)
54,484
92,944
123,025
139,068
90,959
74,430
78,664
82,621
82,243
83,54
RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (S->A)
54,484
92,944
123,025
139,132
92,017
79,513
88,091
97,630
101,697
107,54
TTW CO2 (million kgCO2/yr)
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+ TESTING OF SCENARIO
EMISSION PER CAPITA
(Ton eCO2/per Capita-year)
16% by 2025
Business as Usual
RAN GRK
Improved RAN GRK
CO- BENEFITS
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
Scenarios Comparison
+
The analyses for scenario comparisons for total emission are as follow
1. Similar with the emission figure for per capita emission, the results from total
emission also show that IMPROVED RAN scenario have better performance
compared to RAN GRK .
2. The RAN GRK will reduce the total emission by about 25 Mton CO2 to about 132
Mton in 2025 compared to BAU. On the other hand, IMPROVED RAN scenario will
further reduce total CO2 emission by about 67 Mton to only 90 Mton by 2025.
3. The significant difference of results between A->S and S->A sequence for all three
(BAU, RAN & IMPROVED RAN) can be seen in 2050. Significant difference especially
can be seen in IMPROVED RAN scenario where the A->S sequence can reduce the
total emission down to 80 Mton (lower that 90 Mton in 2025). At the same time, the
S->A sequence cannot even hold the emission causing rebound of total emission to
107 Mton by 2050.
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Co – Benefit from policy improvement
▪
Transport policies devised GHG mitigation, transport
efficiency, system competitiveness and energy
consumption.
▪
Policy improvement will create co-benefit in energy
consumption (61% reduction) congestion relieve
(35%).
▪
Transport competitiveness, energy efficiency and
GHG emission reduction will achieving global
commitment as well as improving the economic and
local environmental condition
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
5. Visioning Future Policy
▪
▪
Significant improvement is needed to achieve
national commitment and meet global target
Introduction of various “avoid” policies:
promotion of TOD, higher fuel pricing,
▪
Shift to more advance vehicle technology and
cleaner fuel options
▪
Push policy for transport behavioral changes:
road and higher fuel pricing.
▪
Capacity building to manage and safe guard
consistent policy implementation
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
+
Combination of transport
competitiveness, energy
efficiency and GHG
emission reduction will
help the Indonesian
government achieving
global climate change
commitment as well as
improving the economic
and local environmental
condition
UMY-UGM-MTI
13 February 2017
AGKN e.V.
Dr. Irina Dovbischuk
Wilhelm-Herbst-Str. 12 28359 Bremen
Assistant Professor
Management Board / Director
Chinese Embassy in
Jakarta
Indonesia
Asian-German Knowledge Network for
Transport and Logistics (AGKN) e.V.
Wilhelm-Herbst-Straße 12
28359 Bremen
or
Phone
www
General Consular in
Surabaya
Indonesia
Our Sign: Dov
Date: 22.01.17
Invitation and support letter
Dear Sir or Madam,
The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport and Logistics e.V. organises
the Third Travelling Conference to Asia with support of the German Federal Ministry
of Education and Research. The travelling conferences has three stopovers - in China (2017-02-13), in South Korea (2017-02-15) and on the Philippines (2017-02-17).
The Zhongyuan University of Technology is the host of the event in Zhengzhou,
China on the 13rd of February 2017. We invite
Name : Ms. Noor Mahmudah
Date of birth : October 3 1970
Profession : Civil Servant / Lecturer in Department of Civil Engineering Universitas
Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Indonesia Passport No : A 7181774
Required visa valid for : Short visit visa
Date of arrival: 12 February 2017
Date of departure : 14 February 2017
to make a speech in the framework of the conference in Zhengzhou, China.
The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport e.V. will reimburse
- the economy return-ticket up to 400,- Euro and
- the accommodation expenses to max. 3 nights, 94,- Euro each.
Kind regards,
Dr. Irina Dovbischuk
Association’s corporate seat: Bremen I Management board: Prof. Dr. H.-D. Haasis (Chairman)
Prof. Dr. D. Sackmann (Deputy Chairman) I Prof. Dr. A. Jattke (Treasure)
Bank account: Die Sparkasse Bremen I SWIFT-BIC: SBREDE22XXX I IBAN: DE 8029 0501 0100 8147 8307
+49 421 218 - 66766
dovbischuk@agkn.de
www.agkn.de
Y &:.8
(L
ZHONGYUAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
I
+#
(I()I\*T"F,R HITil11 I-{A l\tr [}BfiOK
r&il
,HlHf;'ff+l'l ffi+HFffiq1B
Hl]4ffi 450007
tsiff 0086-371-62506888
:
:
:
14
itl
:
http ://www .zzti. ed u . cn
zweztnu
H
J(
-. AilEfEq+lF/Agenda.
\ +g>+ LfrZ4ltist
of Main
Parlicipants.....
r. +*THLRZ+eHXRF:rt/contact.
....01
........03
.'..05
*ry
-.. B trEEfrF Aeenda
A Stopover of the Traveling Conference
"Energy Efficiency & climate change Mitigation in Line with
urban Mobility & its Interconnection with Transportation Networks,,
on Logistics Management and Engineering inzhengzhou, china
EH
fttrEJ
Date
Time
2.rt-t2
9:00-22:00
$ahE
fr.frx
ju ,H
Activitv--
Principal
Place
-eC"Ntr trliileicmp &
Hotel)
*G- tt1
),J
Jennv
Ofltce 224
T$-+
Opening Ceremony
7T+;t.
9:00-9:30
L.=
-
=
\tr'elcome
='=-r_i+€E,ilt(4ft
Address
Tan Heng
)E
L=
Prof. Du Jianhui.Vice president of Z\JT
2.4;7J Croup Photo
+tri+B
Seminar
Liu Zhanguo. Finance Department of ./
Government Development Research Center
Atqr1.
-rtrxSH*A
2. Dr. Irina Dovbischuk: Energy Efficiency in
Warehousing (AGKN e.V.:rL 1,..E q lfr td +h n + ,,\ +.1f
)
3.Dr. Noor Mahmudah:Transportion planning and \
Engineering ( University of Muhammadiyah
t4,oyyntrlfrl
.t r
1, 4 -=_:1 ,1 j- t; y
1. Director
9:30- l0:30
2.13
Mondav
10:30- l0:45
i.!ttri::,
qRE*tf
+
Hans-
Dietrich
Fft)'"/ix1
Haasis
v-f,+Et
jxffi
LEftr
6 LJ *91
&i Coffee Break
&"+ 4E tr_ )T. t+ +
2.Deputy Director
Lu Qiuyi, Henan Supply Chain
^_+)
Management Association
Hans-
Dietrich
Haasis
t/-n
rt'A' l* r_L#E trr,b
3.Prof. Carlos Jahn: Digitalization in Sea ports-Key
^
l
307
ZUT
1.Prof. Dirk Sackman:Vehicle Routing problems with
Time Windows and Multiple Dumping Sites in Waste
Collection( Merseburg University of Applied Science
F 41, XilAts.,4
I\
'r- -ti:- +r<
2=
<
Meeting
Room 307
North
Campus of
+tri+tr Seminar
l0:45- l2:05
*lh->
I r.l\!-1-
L hia
tr Lf {
Driver to Increase
Efficiency(Hamburg-Harburg
University of Technolo ey iXff-a.;'B E I ll- x+)
zl.Prof. Stefan Voss: Future Trends in Logistics: A
Biased View on Urban Mobility' and
lts
Interconnection with Transport Networks(University
of Hamburg ;,€ E ill+ f.+)
+
l2:10-13:30
E
+roi+B
14:00-15:20
HE€
Dinner
Taotao
Seminar
l.Prof. Hans-Dietrich Haasis: Smart City Design and
Climate Friendly Business Models (University of
Bremen T *f+ /ri,)
2.Prof.Wang Dongyun,Vice president of Huanghuai
Universityl
**
Hans-
Dietrich
#_{x., F W+ ln
Haasis
3.Prof. Andreas Jattke: To Be Defines (lngolstadt
Un i vers ity of App I i ed Techno I o gy +
R ifi, t+++ [.1 /H
Jxill
iit,)-ri)
'-:
f,Ptr\ ea,Y'r'j
\
.
+wffi
4.Dr. Li Ziyao, School of Economics&Management of
zur +*+-t$+,
4E
*il.
15',20-15:40
L /,-l\.!-r
t+lii,]-;+E tr+ fft
), +li
'7t-1L
}.LI
1>
.1,
coffee Break
!/!i-Pu
-i *
*'1.
'aT U:- *1.
+roi+tr
307
Seminar
l.Prof.Cuido Siestrup: Requirements on SCM
4.0-readiness (University of Furtrvagen Fe E 4 =-;:.
x+)
2.t3
15:40-17.,20
Monday
2. Dr. Wang Haiquan. School of Electronics &
Information of ZIJT -I,e+-i++ , + Ra+l:,1q+ l1
,'t-'? l'1r3.Prof. Holger Schi.itt: How to Combine Sustainability
and Efficiency in the Design of Logistic Processes
(lnstitute of Transportation Economics & Logistics ra
Hans-
Dietrich
Haasis
,L+
#t4:fr+ k+hrt+vft)
4.Prof. Carsten Dorn: Load Securing in the lntermodal
Transport Chain (Bremenhaven University of Applied
t /r*)
Technology T. * f+ + + fr Fl tL
5.Dr.Wen Shengjun, Vice Dean of School of
Electronics & Information of ZUT
rf,
+ IRL+Fn+.+ E
(
r+d
H.-€
No
List of Main Participants, in No Particular Order)
#4
Na-"
,l&,Etl
t
I
Hans-Dietrich
1
2
Haasis
Irina Dovbischuk
+4nkry'+
Gender
-' *-t+t + tr''i
Carsten Dorn
.nq
=i- +_\ft_WF
NIM
Chairman of the lnternational Craduate School for Dvnamics in
Logistics of Universitv of Bremen
*tP
-u-1€€+6[fE +h
Managing Director of Asi an-GermanyKnor.vl
k+,\i11
T
J
yt
Institution & Title
frtw
Netw ork e.V.
*f++'t- r! H i{.t x # q#r kfu kA i1+
Chairman of Transportation and Logistics Department of Bremen
Haven Universitl, ofApplied Technology'
ii+
iF.+ + ,\
Director ^4*
of the Fraunhofer Center for Maritime Logistics and
Services CML of Hamburg-Harburg University of Technology
:r.E-+,
frtw
ed ge
rYX+)"+q+hinh
4
Carlos Jahn
5
Andreas Jattke
6
Dirk Sackmann
H tvt
7
Guido Siestrup
fr tvt
8
Stefan Voss
frtw
@
Noor Mahmudah
xlF
F,t+Hie il-x+
l0
Holger Schi.itt
Ftw
i#tt-irt + krl )r-+ f"_+r.i*.
Professor of lnstitute of Transportation Economics & Logistics
-!rl Ll: F-
1l
t2
13
,^l
d.{.
Hwr
Liu Zhanguo
F 4kv,t
Lu Qiuyi
+ +rl
L^t
L')'
Wang Dongyun
Professor of Ingolstadt University of Applied Technology
,.eEEnHt*4)-r*4k
Professor of Merseburg University of Applied Science
1,+-EiE++EI4Rlr ++k{X- Professor of University of Furtwagen
jqa
r
l4li
+ X B ffi, ++ ++ r"L fr1 +{ ,t t + +kf;
frtw
iSt
pr of University of Muhammadiyah
A&fr kR.q f, +,\lr.tftaHmA4[t
Director of Finance Department of Govemment Development
Research Center
frtw
Ftw
)4
A
Htr-#EEfi >H +EI *<
Deputy Director of Henan Supply Chain Management Association
+a a=
l-:tt-E,l)a? ;f dr 4t'-
V
Vice President of Huanshuai Llniversitv
J
t4
l5
t6
t7
,t}r€€r
Du Jianhui
*1tk+-t
Zheng Qiusheng
I a\,frfr /t
)-en
Wang Xiaolei
Aax,t
Liu Weiguang
;-VdAl
f-fi-HH/
18
19
20
2l
22
ZJ
24
25
26
Song Changming
t,tLAt
It3 , :-' 7,r!/
Zhao Zhiquan
KxH
r
Zhang Wenyong
***r
Li Mujie
jg
rjp
,la t
t=_t
Tan Heng
ar--lLl
'f4ttl
/l\
l'J
4
ta fr'ft
l
llfL 'iid --f /
Wen Shengjun
I *#r
Li Ziyao
'i4 x