Setting up the Integrated Model

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4.1 Setting up the Integrated Model

This step summarizes the key activities to assemble an integrated model that addresses the key drivers and issues presented in the system diagram and create databases to run the model with the data representing the landscape. The Envision platform used in our F2R EO case study was selected because it is a highly scalable and transferable modelling platform that provides a base on which to spatially and temporally integrate models, data and indicators. This GIS basis of this dynamic system model also means that outcomes can be visualized time series plots, dynamic maps. Envision is a “framework for constructing alternative future scenario applications” and consists of a dynamic spatial engine for representing landscape characteristics that allows the system to operate a number of evaluative and process models, visual analysis modules used for data processing and model generation. The framework includes a representation of policies that guide actor decisions and scenarios that describe alternative strategies for land management. It is based on “plug-in” architecture and written in open- source C++ code. The fundamental spatial framework in ENVISION consists of integrated decision units IDUs—GIS polygons that are homogeneous with respect to particular attributes e.g., soils, land cover classes etc. and are used for modelling processes that are important for the region e.g., population dynamics, changes in climate, land cover etc.. The platform developed for Eastern Ontario is transferable to other regions, and the specifics of the code development are not presented here. To put together the data, available datasets were collected and catalogued. Preliminary data gathering was conducted over a period of around three months, with supportive and targeted additions made as required throughout the duration of the project. Sources of data ranged from local municipalities to conservation authorities to provincial and federal departments to national databases, including those available to the general public and ones whose use is restricted to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada employees e.g., NGIS. General census data and data from the Census of Agriculture were also integrated in a Geodatabase for the project. Overall, we attempted to consult primary sources that are publicly available at the regional and provincial level; however, datasets produced at the national level were also used. Consultations with experts were particularly valuable at this stage of the project as they not only provided relevant datasets but also pointed out new data and data sources that had not been considered prior to the consultations. Considerations that guided data assembly and use included the spatial resolution of data and year the data was produced, proper geometric representation validation of landscape characteristics in the datasets and availability of appropriate attributes that go along with them. The choice of data was made by the project team, in consultation with subject matter experts, as determined by data quality considerations, as well as the goals and potential modelling needs of the project. A geodatabase was developed and used to organize data, which was uploaded to the Eastern Ontario repository housed at Oregon State University. This facilitated data access from a centralized location for the project’s working group and version control. 51 The organization of the geodatabase includes a grouping of key datasets by feature class using the structure found in Table 8. All datasets with the exception of climate were first projected to a common coordinate system NAD 83 UTM Zone 18N and clipped to the Eastern Ontario boundary. Data integrated into Envision Data developed, but not integrated into Envision Land cover Land use Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System SOLRIS; Agri-Environmental Services Branch 2011; Cadastral Zoning; Tile drainage area; Drain Connection; Constructed drain; Area of Natural Scientific Interest ANSI; Provincial parks; Crown game preserves SoilTerrain Soil Landscapes of Canada SLC; Detailed Soil Survey DSS; 10 m Digital Elevation Model DEM Census Population counts by Dissemination Block; Ag Census variables by Census Consolidated Subdivision; National Agricultural Profiling Project NAPP variables by Dissemination Area NAHARP Indicator of Risk of Water Contamination by Phosphorus IROWC-P; Indicator of the Risk of Water Contamination by Nitrogen IROWC-N Hydrology Watershed boundaries; Sub- watershed Boundaries; Rivers; Lakes; Wetlands; Floodplains Transportation Rail; Major roads; Secondary roads Climate Projected daily data on minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation; Baseline daily data on minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation; 2011 daily data on minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation Table 8. F2R EO: Geodatabase feature classes and key datasets 52

4.2 Preparation of IDUs and Data for Envision