T H E J O U R N A L O F H U M A N R E S O U R C E S • 47 • 4
Insult to Injury
Disability, Earnings, and Divorce
Perry Singleton
A B S T R A C T
This study measures the longitudinal effect of disability on earnings, mar- riage, and divorce. The data come from the Survey of Income and Program
Participation matched to administrative data on longitudinal earnings. Us- ing event-study methods, the results show that the onset of a work-prevent-
ing disability is associated with a precipitous decline in earnings and an increase in divorce. Consistent with theory, the association between dis-
ability and divorce is greatest among young and educated males who expe- rience a work-preventing, rather than a work-limiting, disability.
I. Introduction
An important motivation for marriage is to insure against shocks to earnings and health Stevenson and Wolfers 2007. For example, marriage may in-
sure against financial hardship Di Tella and MacCulloch 2002; Hess 2004; Weiss 1997, longevity Kotlikoff and Spivak 1981, and accidents or injuries Arnott and
Stiglitz 1991. At the same time, shocks to earnings and health are considered a major catalyst for divorce Becker, Landes, and Michael 1977. Thus, it remains
unclear whether marriages—and the promises of insurance that sustain them—are robust, particularly during times of adversity.
To address this question for a specific but important case, this study examines whether a marriage is more likely to dissolve due to the onset of a work-limiting
Perry Singleton is an assistant professor of economics at Syracuse University and a senior research as- sociate at the Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University. For helpful comments and suggestions,
the author would like to thank Kimberly Burham, Richard Burkhauser, Mark Duggan, Jeffrey Kubik, Joyce Manchester, Bruce Meyer, David Pattison, Elizabeth Powers, Christopher Rohlfs, Seth Sanders,
Mircea Trandafir, four anonymous referees, and seminar participants at Cornell University and the Uni- versity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. This research is financially supported by a Steven H. Sandell
Grant, which is administered by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College and funded by the U.S. Social Security Administration. All comments and errors are the authors and do not reflect the
views of the Social Security Administration. The survey data used in this article can be obtained begin- ning May 2013 after publication through April 2016 from Perry Singleton; Syracuse University; 426
Eggers Hall; Syracuse, NY 13202; psingletsyr.edu. Instructions on obtaining the administrative data used in this article can be requested from Perry Singleton.
[Submitted March 2011; accepted November 2011] ISSN 022-166X E-ISSN 1548-8004 2012 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System
disability. In the United States, nearly one-fifth of male heads-of-household between the ages of 22 and 64 report being disabled Meyer and Mok 2008, yet the economic
welfare of the disabled is one of the most understudied topics in labor economics Burkhauser, Moffit, and Scholz 2010. Ostensibly, marriage is intended to insure
against disabilities, as couples often vow to remain together “in sickness and in health.” But if a disability is unanticipated, or has a large effect on marital value,
then a disability may precipitate divorce.
The main data come from topical module two of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, panel years 1990 through 1996. These data contain retro-
spective information on marriage, divorce, and disability onset. The SIPP data are matched to administrative data on longitudinal earnings, maintained by the Social
Security Administration. The administrative data, named the Detailed Earnings Rec- ord, are useful to examine the longitudinal effect of disability on earnings. The study
focuses on shocks to males, similar to most economic studies on marital instability, though the results for females are briefly discussed.
Using event-study methods, the results show that the effect of disability onset on divorce is greatest among males who experience a work-preventing, rather than a
work-limiting, disability. Moreover, the effect of a work-preventing disability is greatest among males who are younger and more educated. The results are robust
to controls for the type of disabling condition, which is shown to vary by age and education. The results are consistent with the proposed model of disability and di-
vorce, as the young and educated have greater expected earnings, longer remaining work-years, and a lower incidence of disability onset. To suggest that the results are
not driven by reverse causation, they are compared to a recent study on divorce and mental stress.
The results differ from those of Charles and Stephens 2004, who find no asso- ciation between disability onset and divorce. The difference in findings may reflect
that Charles and Stephens, using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, measure the effect of disability on divorce across all marriages, regardless of disability se-
verity.
1
A similar result occurs when using the SIPP: When the effect of any dis- ability is estimated among the full sample, regardless of severity, the result is sta-
tistically insignificant not shown. Thus, this study suggests that measuring the effects of shocks on divorce at the population level may obscure heterogeneous
effects at sublevels, especially if the shocks occur predominately among those whose divorce decisions change the least; in this case, disability onset among the aged.
This study shows that disability not only affects divorce in some cases, but does in a manner consistent with theory.
II. Background
