The Challenges and Opportunities of ASEAN Economic Community
The Challenges and Opportunities of
ASEAN Economic Community
By
Dr. Rizal Yaya Ak. CA.
Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics
Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
By:
Presented at Seminar on AEC held by IGOV UMY
7 November 2015
Presentation Outline
•ASEAN and economic integration
•Benefits gained
•AEC concept
•How ready is Indonesia?
•What have been prepared?
•What have been achieved?
•Big problems that still remain
PERLUASAN
1967: INA, MAL
PHI, SIN, THA
1984: BRU
1995: VN
2004: ASN-China
1997: LAO, MYM
1977: PTA
1999: CAM
CEPEA Study
2008: ASN-JAP
1992: CEPT AFTA
PENDALAMAN
EAFTA Study
2006: ASN-KOR
2009: ASN-ANZ;
ASN-India;
ASN-China Investment;
ASN Korea Investment
1995: AFAS
1997: ASEAN Vision 2020
1998: AIA
2003: 3 Pillars of ASEAN Community 2020;
11 Priority Integration Sectors (PIS)
2010: ASEAN Plus Working
Groups on ROO, Tariff
Nomenclature, Customs, Ec
Cooperation
2005: Logistics as PIS
2007: AEC 2015; ASEAN Charter; AEC Blueprint
2008: first year of AEC Blueprint;
ASEAN Charter entered into force
2009: ATIGA, ACIA, AEC Scorecard
2011: ASEAN Framework
for Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership
2012: Launching of
Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership
2009: Roadmap for an ASEAN Community 2009-2015
2010: Connectivity Master Plan
2011: ASEAN Framework for Equitable
Economic Development
ASEAN Economic
Community 2015
3
What benefits
have been gained so far?
4
Benefits Gained
1. Increase in FDI in ASEAN and Indonesia.
• FDI in ASEAN = US$ 98 billion in 2010 to become
US$ 110 billion in 2012.
• FDI in Indonesia = US$ 16,2 billion in 2010 to
become US$ 24,6 billion in 2012 and US$ 28,6
billion in 2013.
2. GDP and GDP per capita
• ASEAN GDP grews 5,9% as much as US$ 2,18
trillion in 2011 and 5,8% or US$ 2,31 trillion in
2012.
• ASEAN GDP per capita increased 4 times from
US$ 965 (1998) to be US$ 3.590,7 (2011) dan
US$ 3.748,4 (2012)
5
Benefits Gained
3. Decreased in poverty
45% in 1990, to become 15,6 % in 2010.
4. Increased in Middle class
ASEAN middle class increases more than twice,
15% in 1990 to become 37% in 2010
6
Benefits Gained
5. Trading
Total trade in goods in ASEAN reached US $2.48 trillion in 2012.
Total Indonesian trade to other other ASEAN countries reached
US $81 billion in 2012
6. Tourism
89 million tourists in 2012 , 40 million intra ASEAN and 49 million
from out of ASEAN. Indonesia is in rank 4 (8 million) after
Malaysia, Thailand and Singapura.
7
What is the AEC concept?
8
AEC integration Agenda
The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
9
AEC: KEY MEA“URE“ IMPLEMENTATION RATE
The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
10
Agreement for Free flow of Services
11
SCORECARD: Comparison among members
ASEAN Country
Implementation Rate(%)*
Brunei Darussalam
79.3
Cambodia
78.4
Indonesia
77.0
Laos
76.9
Malaysia
80.0
Myanmar
77.2
Philippines
79.2
Singapore
81.3
Thailand
81.1
Viet Nam
80.1
The Ministry
of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
*Period of review is January 2008 – December
2013
ASEAN
72.2%
12
How ready is Indonesia?
13
Human Development Index
ASEAN Countries
Countries
Singapura
Brunei
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Filipina
Vietnam
Kamboja
Laos
Myanmar
Source: UNDP 2014
World rank (2013)
9
30
62
89
108
117
121
136
139
150
14
Indonesia trade and investment with ASEAN
Export
2010
2011
2012
Dunia
157
203
190
ASEAN
33
42
41
Jepang
25
33
30
Cina
15
22
21
Korea
12
16
15
AS
14
16
12
FDI
2010
2011
2012
Q1 2013
value
value
value
value
ASEAN
6.1M
5.8M
5.4M
779J
1.8M
3.2M
5.6M
2.1M
Import
2010
2011
2012
Dunia
135
177
191
ASEAN
39
51
53
Jepang
16
19
22
Asia
non
ASEAN
Cina
20
26
29
EU
1.1M
2.1M
2.3M
1.1M
Korea
7
12
11
AS
9
10
11
US
930J
1.4M
1.2M
885J
US$ Billion
The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
15
ASEAN POPULATION 2011
ASEAN Population 2011
No
Negara
1 Indonesia
Population
241,452,952
2
Filipina
86,241,697
3
Vietnam
82,689,518
4
Myanmar
42,720,196
5
Thailand
64,865,523
6
Malaysia
23,522,482
7
Kamboja
13,363,421
8
Laos
5,631,585
9
Singapura
4,353,893
10 Timor Leste
11 Brunei Darussalam
1,019,252
365,251
566,225,770
(d)
What have been prepared?
17
Corridor Based Development
Results of the Efforts
Results of the Efforts
Biggest Challenge for Indonesia?
22
SERVICE SECTOR!
Especially those in high skilled area
23
What do Professional Bodies say?
What confidence left?
26
Surviving skills
in difficult situation!
27
Thank You
Wassalamu’alaikum
warahmatullah wabarakatuhu
ASEAN Economic Community
By
Dr. Rizal Yaya Ak. CA.
Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics
Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
By:
Presented at Seminar on AEC held by IGOV UMY
7 November 2015
Presentation Outline
•ASEAN and economic integration
•Benefits gained
•AEC concept
•How ready is Indonesia?
•What have been prepared?
•What have been achieved?
•Big problems that still remain
PERLUASAN
1967: INA, MAL
PHI, SIN, THA
1984: BRU
1995: VN
2004: ASN-China
1997: LAO, MYM
1977: PTA
1999: CAM
CEPEA Study
2008: ASN-JAP
1992: CEPT AFTA
PENDALAMAN
EAFTA Study
2006: ASN-KOR
2009: ASN-ANZ;
ASN-India;
ASN-China Investment;
ASN Korea Investment
1995: AFAS
1997: ASEAN Vision 2020
1998: AIA
2003: 3 Pillars of ASEAN Community 2020;
11 Priority Integration Sectors (PIS)
2010: ASEAN Plus Working
Groups on ROO, Tariff
Nomenclature, Customs, Ec
Cooperation
2005: Logistics as PIS
2007: AEC 2015; ASEAN Charter; AEC Blueprint
2008: first year of AEC Blueprint;
ASEAN Charter entered into force
2009: ATIGA, ACIA, AEC Scorecard
2011: ASEAN Framework
for Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership
2012: Launching of
Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership
2009: Roadmap for an ASEAN Community 2009-2015
2010: Connectivity Master Plan
2011: ASEAN Framework for Equitable
Economic Development
ASEAN Economic
Community 2015
3
What benefits
have been gained so far?
4
Benefits Gained
1. Increase in FDI in ASEAN and Indonesia.
• FDI in ASEAN = US$ 98 billion in 2010 to become
US$ 110 billion in 2012.
• FDI in Indonesia = US$ 16,2 billion in 2010 to
become US$ 24,6 billion in 2012 and US$ 28,6
billion in 2013.
2. GDP and GDP per capita
• ASEAN GDP grews 5,9% as much as US$ 2,18
trillion in 2011 and 5,8% or US$ 2,31 trillion in
2012.
• ASEAN GDP per capita increased 4 times from
US$ 965 (1998) to be US$ 3.590,7 (2011) dan
US$ 3.748,4 (2012)
5
Benefits Gained
3. Decreased in poverty
45% in 1990, to become 15,6 % in 2010.
4. Increased in Middle class
ASEAN middle class increases more than twice,
15% in 1990 to become 37% in 2010
6
Benefits Gained
5. Trading
Total trade in goods in ASEAN reached US $2.48 trillion in 2012.
Total Indonesian trade to other other ASEAN countries reached
US $81 billion in 2012
6. Tourism
89 million tourists in 2012 , 40 million intra ASEAN and 49 million
from out of ASEAN. Indonesia is in rank 4 (8 million) after
Malaysia, Thailand and Singapura.
7
What is the AEC concept?
8
AEC integration Agenda
The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
9
AEC: KEY MEA“URE“ IMPLEMENTATION RATE
The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
10
Agreement for Free flow of Services
11
SCORECARD: Comparison among members
ASEAN Country
Implementation Rate(%)*
Brunei Darussalam
79.3
Cambodia
78.4
Indonesia
77.0
Laos
76.9
Malaysia
80.0
Myanmar
77.2
Philippines
79.2
Singapore
81.3
Thailand
81.1
Viet Nam
80.1
The Ministry
of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
*Period of review is January 2008 – December
2013
ASEAN
72.2%
12
How ready is Indonesia?
13
Human Development Index
ASEAN Countries
Countries
Singapura
Brunei
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Filipina
Vietnam
Kamboja
Laos
Myanmar
Source: UNDP 2014
World rank (2013)
9
30
62
89
108
117
121
136
139
150
14
Indonesia trade and investment with ASEAN
Export
2010
2011
2012
Dunia
157
203
190
ASEAN
33
42
41
Jepang
25
33
30
Cina
15
22
21
Korea
12
16
15
AS
14
16
12
FDI
2010
2011
2012
Q1 2013
value
value
value
value
ASEAN
6.1M
5.8M
5.4M
779J
1.8M
3.2M
5.6M
2.1M
Import
2010
2011
2012
Dunia
135
177
191
ASEAN
39
51
53
Jepang
16
19
22
Asia
non
ASEAN
Cina
20
26
29
EU
1.1M
2.1M
2.3M
1.1M
Korea
7
12
11
AS
9
10
11
US
930J
1.4M
1.2M
885J
US$ Billion
The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
15
ASEAN POPULATION 2011
ASEAN Population 2011
No
Negara
1 Indonesia
Population
241,452,952
2
Filipina
86,241,697
3
Vietnam
82,689,518
4
Myanmar
42,720,196
5
Thailand
64,865,523
6
Malaysia
23,522,482
7
Kamboja
13,363,421
8
Laos
5,631,585
9
Singapura
4,353,893
10 Timor Leste
11 Brunei Darussalam
1,019,252
365,251
566,225,770
(d)
What have been prepared?
17
Corridor Based Development
Results of the Efforts
Results of the Efforts
Biggest Challenge for Indonesia?
22
SERVICE SECTOR!
Especially those in high skilled area
23
What do Professional Bodies say?
What confidence left?
26
Surviving skills
in difficult situation!
27
Thank You
Wassalamu’alaikum
warahmatullah wabarakatuhu