level of crowding the angler expects; t is a vector of attributes of the available sites, including the
costs of traveling to them and other attributes that may be influenced by management tools; and
x
is a vector of the anglers’ relevant socio-eco- nomic characteristics.
The choice of which site to visit on any given day is a discrete one. Let the available sites be
denoted S
j
for j = 1,..., J. D enote the probability that a particular site will be visited on any given
day as ProbS
j
c, t, x, where c is a vector of
site-specific crowding measures. The total visits to the jth site TV
j
by an angler to a specific site during the season is given by the
product, ProbS
j
·R ·. The marginal effects of changes in exogenous variables, c, say, at the ith
site on TV
j
, in elasticity terms, are given by the gradient
[{d[ProbS
j
]dc
i
}[R ]+ [P S
j
]{dR dc
i
}·] c
i
TV
j
i, j = 1, J 1
The elements of c will include variables that can be influenced by management tools and levels of
crowding. To evaluate the efficacy and implica- tions of various management tools and self-regu-
lation, we focus on estimating the signs and magnitudes of these changes. F or the visitation
length decision, we use a travel cost model from Bell and Leeworthy 1990 and H of and K ing
1992. F or the site selection decision, we use a discrete choice, mixed logit model Caulkins et al.,
1986; Siderelis et al., 1995.
Economic theory suggests that increases in the costs associated with a given site lead to decreases
in visitation to the site. Similarly, improvements in attributes considered desirable undesirable
will lead to increases decreases in visitation. The effect of increased crowding, however, is less
clear-cut. Jacob and Schreyer 1980 were among the first to discuss the normative dimensions of
crowding and suggested that peoples’ perceptions of crowding are relative. The idea of social norms
for crowding has important implications for re- source managers. Social norms are norms that
individuals believe are held by the group and dictate appropriate behavior in specific settings
Schwartz, 1977. In recreational fishing, social norms may induce self-regulation by anglers. If
anglers disperse over a widening area as crowding increases and, if the norm regarding the distance
between anglers is such that resource impacts are minimal, then self-regulation will help control hu-
man impacts.
N orms for appropriate distance may be influ- enced by recreational activity style, the resource
intensity required for the activity and tolerance for diversity Jacob and Schreyer, 1980. This
suggests that visitors’ responses to crowding will vary with a multitude of factors. Yet, after a
quarter century of research, no consistent, clear impact of crowding on behavior has emerged
Brown and M endelson, 1984; M cConnell, 1988; K uss et al., 1990; Berrens et al., 1993.
These mixed findings are possibly explained by Schneider and H ammitt 1995 suggested three
possible responses to crowding: product shift, ra- tionalization
and displacement. Product
shift means that the recreationist changes her concep-
tion of what the experience should be in response to unexpected conditions. R ationalization occurs
when crowding forces the visitor to examine the recreation experience, yet after examination the
visitor decides that crowding has no impact on the quality of the activity. The visitor views the recre-
ation experience as the same even though greater congestion is present. D isplacement occurs when
the visitor’s response to crowding is to leave. Only displacement reduces crowding at a site.
Shelby et al. 1988 suggest that rationalization operates strongly for recreation activities that re-
quire large expenditures of time or money. If this is the case, major destination fisheries such as the
G YE may be poor candidates for displacement by self-regulation.
3. Angler survey and estimation equations
