B. DCTAG’s Effect on College Enrollments
One of the goals of the DCTAG program is to increase college enrollments of D.C. residents. All of the data we have examined thus far relate to the decision to apply to
a four-year college or university, as captured by the decision to send SAT scores to a school. In this section we examine data on college enrollments from the IPEDS
database. In particular, we focus on the number of D.C. residents who graduated from high school in the previous 12 months who are enrolled as first-time college freshmen
in fall 1996, 1998, 2000 or 2002.
14
The IPEDS data provide an important complement to the SAT data, allowing us to examine where D.C. residents actually choose to
enroll after the introduction of DCTAG, including enrollments at both two- and four- year colleges.
15
In Table 5, we report enrollments for 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2002 for those schools that had the largest increases and the largest declines in enrollment of D.C. residents
between 1998 and 2002, together with summary figures on enrollments at DCTAG- eligible and non-DCTAG-eligible schools. The school that appears to have benefited
most from the introduction of the DCTAG program is Virginia State University, a his- torically black public institution at which the enrollment of D.C. freshmen jumped by
92 students between 1998 and 2000, to 108 students, and remained at that higher level in 2002. Altogether 16 schools added 10 or more D.C. freshmen to their enrollment
counts between 1998 and 2002; 13 of these 16 schools were DCTAG-eligible institu- tions. In addition to Virginia State University, other historically black public colleges
with notable D.C. enrollment gains included North Carolina Agricultural and Technical University, Norfolk State University in Virginia, the University of Maryland
Eastern Shore, Coppin State College in Maryland and North Carolina Central University. Fewer schools experienced D.C. freshman enrollment declines of more
than ten students, but three of the six that did, including the two schools with the largest decline in enrollment of District residents, are private institutions located in
the District of Columbia.
16
Summary figures on enrollments of D.C. freshmen are shown at the bottom of Table 5. When the DCTAG program was first introduced, students planning to start
college in the fall of 2000 were told that it would benefit students enrolled in Maryland and Virginia public institutions. Between fall 1998 and fall 2000, freshmen
enrollments of D.C. residents at these schools nearly tripled, jumping from 162 stu- dents to 449 students. This increase came partially at the expense of enrollments at
14. The IPEDS has information on both total freshmen enrollment and enrollment of freshmen who gradu- ated from high school in the past 12 months. We focus on the latter because, at least initially, only recent
high school graduates were eligible for the DCTAG program. 15. Although in principle the IPEDS database contains information on enrollments for all schools in every
year, reports for some schools are missing in some years. The tabulations shown in our tables are based on a balanced panel of schools that provided reports for 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. We obtain very similar
results when we include data for schools that reported in some but not all years. The enrollment data for the University of the District of Columbia UDC contained in the IPEDS database are obviously inconsistent
across years. Rather than use this information, we have substituted corrected figures obtained directly from UDC’s Office of University Statistics.
16. Students attending Howard University, George Washington University, or the other private D.C. schools listed earlier are eligible for a smaller DCTAG tuition break of 2,500, but as noted previously, this subsidy
is small relative to the cost of attending these institutions.
Abraham and Clark
593
The Journal of Human Resources 594
Table 3 Determinants of Whether Students’ SAT Scores Sent to at Least One Out-of-State Public 4-Year College or University; Difference-in-
Differences Models, Selected Subgroups
Type of High School Attended Race
Maryland or College
Maryland or College
Virginia College in Any State
Virginia College in Any State
Public Private
Public Private
White Black
White Black
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
DC1995 or later −0.001
−0.069 0.006
−0.033 − 0.018
−0.007 −0.045
0.018 0.023
0.033 0.021
0.035 0.040
0.023 0.047
0.019 DC1996 or later
−0.012 −0.005
−0.012 −0.049
−0.023 −0.009
−0.060 −0.021
0.023 0.033
0.021 0.036
0.039 0.023
0.047 0.020
DC1997 or later 0.025
−0.026 0.027
−0.011 −0.001
0.007 0.050
0.010 0.024
0.033 0.021
0.037 0.038
0.024 0.046
0.020 DC1998 or later
0.002 0.120
−0.009 0.062
0.079 0.023
0.009 0.007
0.023 0.034
0.021 0.036
0.041 0.024
0.047 0.020
DC1999 or later 0.002
−0.125 0.013
−0.093 −0.081
−0.014 −0.063
−0.017 0.024
0.035 0.021
0.037 0.044
0.024 0.050
0.020 DC2000 or later
0.091 0.098
0.046 0.110
0.053 0.088
0.069 0.059
0.023 0.035
0.020 0.038
0.043 0.023
0.050 0.020
DC2001 or later 0.036
0.097 0.042
0.099 0.149
0.054 0.163
0.044 0.022
0.037 0.018
0.036 0.045
0.022 0.047
0.017 Year change dummies
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
State dummies yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes Demographic covariates
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
Observations 46,972
15,178 46,972
15,178 10,458
44,245 10,458
44,245 R
-squared 0.19
0.12 0.15
0.13 0.08
0.15 0.09
0.11 DC2000-or-later plus
0.127 0.195
0.089 0.210
0.202 0.142
0.232 0.102
DC2001-or-later 0.023
0.037 0.019
0.037 0.045
0.023 0.049
0.019 Difference between subgroups
−0.067 −0.122
0.060 0.130
P -value of difference
[0.118] [0.003]
[0.234] [0.013]
Abraham and Clark
595
Highest Parental Educational Attainment SAT Verbal plus Math Score
Maryland or College
Maryland or College
Virginia College in Any State
Virginia College in Any State
High High Greater
Greater school College school College 1,000 than 1,000 than
or less or more
or less or more
or less 1,000
or less 1,000
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 16
DC1995 or later −0.041
−0.007 0.028
−0.010 − 0.025
−0.012 −0.002
−0.011 0.037
0.022 0.031
0.022 0.023
0.033 0.020
0.036 DC1996 or later
−0.021 −0.015
−0.008 −0.040
0.001 −0.027
−0.011 −0.055
0.039 0.022
0.032 0.022
0.024 0.033
0.020 0.036
DC1997 or later 0.046
−0.008 −0.026
0.027 0.024
−0.018 0.014
0.030 0.038
0.023 0.033
0.023 0.024
0.032 0.021
0.036 DC1998 or later
0.010 0.048
0.022 0.009
0.018 0.059
0.018 −0.019
0.037 0.023
0.032 0.023
0.024 0.033
0.020 0.036
DC1999 or later 0.017
−0.055 0.017
−0.026 −0.038
−0.029 −0.027
0.017 0.037
0.023 0.032
0.023 0.024
0.034 0.021
0.037 DC2000 or later
0.037 0.114
0.001 0.088
0.110 0.070
0.072 0.051
0.035 0.023
0.031 0.023
0.023 0.034
0.020 0.037
DC2001 or later 0.044
0.062 0.044
0.061 0.028
0.101 0.024
0.115 0.032
0.023 0.027
0.021 0.022
0.035 0.018
0.035 Year change dummies
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
State dummies yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes Demographic covariates
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
yes yes
Observations 21,009
41,406 21,009
41,406 47,603
14,812 47,603
14,812 R
-squared 0.25
0.12 0.18
0.11 0.22
0.07 0.18
0.08
The Journal of Human Resources 596
Table 3 continued
Highest Parental Educational Attainment SAT Verbal plus Math Score
Maryland or College
Maryland or College
Virginia College in Any State
Virginia College in Any State
High High Greater
Greater school College school College 1,000 than 1,000 than
or less or more
or less or more
or less 1,000
or less 1,000
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 16
DC2000-or-later plus 0.082
0.176 0.045
0.149 0.138
0.171 0.096
0.166 DC2001-or-later
0.034 0.023
0.029 0.022
0.023 0.035
0.019 0.036
Difference between subgroups –0.094
–0.104 −0.033
−0.072 P
-value of difference [0.022]
[0.004] [0.429]
[0.077]
Source: SAT Score Database. Note: Sample includes SAT-takers in specified subgroups graduating from high school in 1994 through 2001, sending scores to four-year colleges, and residing in Washington,
D.C.; Baltimore, Md.; Newark, N.J.; Norfolk, Va.; or Philadelphia, Pa. Sample includes all black and Hispanic test takers; all test takers residing in Washington, D.C.; and a 25 percent random sample of nonblack, non-Hispanic test-takers in other states. All models weighted OLS regressions. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors in
parentheses.
Abraham and Clark
597
other schools – the number of D.C. freshmen fell both at public colleges in other states and at private colleges – but the total number of recent D.C. high school graduates
enrolled as college freshmen grew by 154 students. Between 2000 and 2002, there were large D.C. enrollment gains at DCTAG-eligible schools in other states; enroll-
ments at DCTAG-eligible schools in Maryland and Virginia dropped off slightly and enrollments at non-DCTAG-eligible institutions rebounded to about their 1998 level.
Table 4 Determinants of Number and Share of Scores Sent to Top-Tier Schools
Sent Scores Number of Scores Sent to
Fraction of to at Least
Scores Sent One Top-
Top-tier Nontop-tier
to Top-tier tier School
Schools Schools
Schools 1
2 3
4 DC1995 or later
−0.006 0.063
−0.097 0.004
0.019 0.085
0.097 0.010
DC1996 or later 0.005
0.147 0.047
0.014 0.019
0.087 0.098
0.010 DC1997 or later
−0.000 0.006
−0.098 0.000
0.019 0.088
0.099 0.010
DC1998 or later −0.006
−0.136 0.167
−0.010 0.019
0.085 0.099
0.010 DC1999 or later
0.013 0.000
0.072 0.002
0.019 0.083
0.105 0.011
DC2000 or later −0.016
−0.057 0.043
−0.014 0.019
0.084 0.104
0.011 DC2001 or later
0.008 0.041
0.219 −0.005
0.019 0.084
0.102 0.010
Year change dummies yes
yes yes
yes State dummies
yes yes
yes yes
Demographic covariates yes
yes yes
yes Observations
62,415 62,415
62,415 62,415
R -squared
0.18 0.32
0.02 0.31
DC2000-or-later plus −0.008
−0.015 0.262
−0.019 DC2001-or-later
0.019 0.083
0.105 0.010
Source: SAT Score Database. Note: Sample includes SAT-takers graduating from high school in 1994 through 2001, sending scores to four-
year colleges, and residing in Washington, D.C.; Baltimore, Md.; Newark, N.J.; Norfolk, Va.; or Philadelphia, Pa. Sample includes all black and Hispanic test takers; all test takers residing in Washington, D.C.; and a 25
percent random sample of nonblack, non-Hispanic test-takers in other states. All models weighted OLS regressions with heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Top-tier schools are defined as those appearing
in the top tier top-50 of the U.S. News and World Report 1998 “Best National Universities” list or the top tier top-42 of the U.S. News and World Report 1998 “Best National Liberal Arts Colleges” list.
The Journal of Human Resources 598
Table 5 Fall Enrollment of D.C. Freshmen Completing High School in Last 12 Months, by School
Number of D.C. Freshmen Change in Number of D.C. Freshmen
2- or DCTAG State of
1996 1998
2000 2002
1996–98 98–2000 2000–02 98–2002 4-year
eligible? school
School name 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 11
1 Virginia State University 19
16 108
108 −3
92 92
4 1
VA 2 University of the
287 260
245 309
−27 −15
64 49
4 DC
District of Columbia 3 Trinity College
55 26
31 65
−29 5
34 39
4 DC
4 Virginia Commonwealth 4
2 22
33 −2
20 11
31 4
1 VA
University 5 North Carolina AT
12 9
13 39
−3 4
26 30
4 1
NC 6 Norfolk State University
22 12
60 39
−10 48
−21 27
4 1
VA 6 Montgomery College of 11
9 27
36 −2
18 9
27 2
1 MD
Rockville 8 University of Pittsburgh-
9 25
9 16
25 4
1 PA
Main Campus 9 University of Maryland-
25 18
29 38
−7 11
9 20
4 1
MD Eastern Shore
10 Temple University 6
17 14
35 11
−3 21
18 4
1 PA
11 George Mason University
12 3
16 20
−9 13
4 17
4 1
VA 11 University of
4 17
4 13
17 4
1 WI
Wisconsin-Madison 13 Coppin State College
6 4
10 17
−2 6
7 13
4 1
MD
Abraham and Clark
599 14 Prince Georges
14 16
34 27
2 18
−7 11
2 1
MD Community College
14 North Carolina 9
3 7
14 −6
4 7
11 4
1 NC
Central University 14 Georgetown University
10 13
5 24
3 −8
19 11
4 DC
364 Morgan State University
13 14
29 2
1 15
−27 −12
4 1
MD 365 Clark Atlanta
University 19
21 9
7 2
−12 −2
−14 4
GA 366 Strayer University-
34 31
22 7
−3 −9
−15 −24
4 DC
Washington Campus 367 Hampton University
10 34
21 8
24 −13
−13 −26
4 VA
368 Howard University 123
86 29
48 −37
−57 19
−38 4
DC 369 George Washington
86 60
23 17
−26 −37
−6 −43
4 DC
University Total: MD and VA
172 162
449 410
−10 287
−39 248
DCTAG-eligible schools
Total: Other DCTAG- 247
304 245
485 57
−59 240
181 eligible schools
Total: All DCTAG- 419
466 694
895 47
228 201
429 eligible schools
Total: Non-DCTAG 1,336 1,182 1,108
1,176 −154
−74 68
−6 eligible schools
Total: All schools 1,755 1,648 1,802
2,071 −107
154 269
423
Source: Integrated Post-Secondary Education Data System Database. Note: Tabulations are based on the set of two- and four-year institutions in Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania for
which the IPEDS database contains valid records for the years 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002.
On net, between 1998 and 2002, enrollments of D.C. freshmen at DCTAG-eligible institutions grew by 429 students. Over the same period, overall enrollments of D.C.
freshmen rose by 423 students, an increase of more than a quarter in the number of D.C. high school graduates going on to college the following year.
One potential concern about DCTAG is that recent D.C. graduates could be choos- ing less-selective public institutions in preference to the top-tier private institutions
they otherwise would have attended. There is, we would note, some question about whether this would in fact be a bad thing. Results reported by Dale and Krueger
2002 suggest that, on average, controlling for an individual student’s observed and unobserved characteristics, the selectivity of the college the student chooses to attend
has little effect on subsequent earnings, though they also find that college selectivity may be more important for students from low income families. In any event, the data
we have examined provide no reason to think that DCTAG has significantly affected enrollments at top-tier private institutions. Table 6 reports enrollments of D.C. fresh-
men at two-year colleges, lower-tier four-year colleges and top-tier four-year colleges, broken out separately for DCTAG-eligible and non-DCTAG-eligible institutions. As
before, we use the U.S. News and World Report rankings of colleges and universities to determine whether a school is a top-tier institution. Most of the increase in enroll-
ments at DCTAG-eligible institutions occurred at lower-tier four-year colleges, but there were also smaller increases at two-year and top-tier four-year DCTAG-eligible
schools. Overall, the number of students enrolled at “better” schools at four-year rather than two-year colleges, and at top-tier institutions within the four-year group,
rose following DCTAG’s introduction.
To put the college enrollment increases observed among District high school grad- uates into perspective, we would like to compare the enrollment trends observed in
the District with those observed in our comparison states. Whereas Census Bureau estimates show the high school age population of the District to have been stable or
declining, that in the comparison states has been growing. In Table 7A, we compare the change in college enrollments as a share of the population of 17-year-olds in D.C.
with that in our comparison states.
17
After falling between 1996 and 1998, the percent of D.C. 17-year-olds going on to college rose by 10.1 percentage points between 1998
and 2002, from 28.8 percent in 1998 to 38.9 percent in 2002; most of this increase was due to increases in enrollments at DCTAG-eligible schools. In contrast, in the
comparison states, college enrollments as a fraction of the population age 17 increased by just 1.3 percentage points, from 42.1 percent in 1998 to 43.4 percent in 2002. The
difference-in-differences estimate based on these figures implies that DCTAG was associated with an 8.9 percentage point increase in the ratio of college enrollments to
population age 17.
Another way to look at the data would be to ask how the share of high school grad- uates who enroll in college changed in D.C. versus the comparison states following
the introduction of DCTAG. As noted earlier, we do not know the number of D.C. res- idents graduating from private high schools, and therefore cannot simply calculate the
17. Using the number of 18- or 19-year-olds as the denominator for this share would be problematic, as many people of these ages move to the District from elsewhere and would not be eligible for DCTAG. In
2000, for example, there were 5,860 17-year-old District residents, about the same as the number of residents for each year of age from 12 through 16, but there were 8,911 18-year-olds and 11,903 19-year-olds.
The Journal of Human Resources 600
Abraham and Clark
601
Table 6 Fall Enrollment of D.C. Freshmen Completing High School in Last 12 Months, by Year and Type of Institution
Number of D.C. Freshmen Change in Number of D.C. Freshmen
1996 1998
2000 2002
1996–1998 1998–2000
2000–2002 1998–2002
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
DCTAG-eligible Two-year
42 36
76 76
−6 40
40 Four-year, nontop-tier
361 399
586 764
38 187
178 365
Four-year, top-tier 16
31 32
55 15
1 23
24 Total
419 466
694 895
47 228
201 429
Non-DCTAG-eligible Two-year
7 6
17 2
−1 11
−15 −4
Four-year, nontop-tier 1,021
871 762
849 −150
−109 87
−22 Four-year, top-tier
308 305
329 325
−3 24
−4 20
Total 1,336
1,182 1,108
1,176 −154
−74 68
−6 All schools
Two-year 49
42 93
78 −7
51 −15
36 Four-year, nontop-tier
1,382 1,270
1,348 1,613
−112 78
265 343
Four-year, top-tier 324
336 361
380 12
25 19
44 Total
1,755 1,648
1,802 2,071
−107 154
269 423
Source: Integrated Post-Secondary Education Data System Database. Note: Tabulations are based on the set of two- and four-year institutions in Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania for
which the IPEDS database contains valid records for the years 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002.
The Journal of Human Resources 602
Table 7a Freshmen Enrollment as a Share of Population of 17-Year Olds, by Year and Type of Institution
Difference D.C. Comparison
Comparison and Comparison
D.C. Level D.C. Change
State Level State Change
State Changes 1996– 1998–
1996– 1998– 1996–
1998– 1996
1998 2002
1998 2002
1996 1998
2002 1998
2002 1998
2002 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 11
12 DCTAG-eligible
Two-year 0.7
0.6 1.4
−0.1 0.8
0.2 0.3
0.2 0.1
0.0 −0.2
0.8 Four-year, nontop-tier
6.4 7.0
14.4 0.5
7.4 3.6
3.5 3.9
−0.1 0.3
0.6 7.1
Four-year, top-tier 0.3
0.5 1.0
0.3 0.5
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.0
0.0 0.2
0.5 Total
7.5 8.1
16.8 0.7
8.7 4.1
4.1 4.4
0.0 0.3
0.7 8.4
Non-DCTAG-eligible Two-year
0.1 0.1
0.0 0.0
−0.1 8.3
9.7 9.9
1.4 0.2
−1.4 −0.2
Four-year, nontop-tier 18.2
15.2 16.0
−3.0 0.7
23.5 24.3
25.1 0.8
0.8 −3.8
−0.1 Four-year, top-tier
5.5 5.3
6.1 −0.2
0.8 3.8
3.9 3.9
0.1 0.0
−0.3 0.8
Total 23.8
20.6 22.1
−3.2 1.5
35.6 38.0
38.9 2.4
1.0 −5.6
0.5 All schools
Two-year 0.9
0.7 1.5
−0.1 0.7
8.5 10.0
10.1 1.5
0.1 −1.6
0.6 Four-year, nontop-tier
24.7 22.2
30.3 −2.5
8.1 27.1
27.9 29.0
0.7 1.1
−3.2 7.0
Four-year, top-tier 5.8
5.9 7.1
0.1 1.3
4.0 4.2
4.2 0.2
0.0 −0.1
1.3 Total
31.3 28.8
38.9 −2.5
10.1 39.7
42.1 43.4
2.4 1.3
−4.9 8.9
Source: Integrated Post-Secondary Education Data System Database and Census Bureau. Note: Tabulations are based on the set of schools for which the IPEDS database contains valid records for the years 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002.
Abraham and Clark
603
Table 7b Percentage Growth in Enrollment of College Freshmen Less Percentage Growth in Number of Public High School Graduates, by Year
and Type of Institution
D.C. Excess Enrollment Comparison State Excess
Difference D.C. and Growth Rate
Enrollment Growth Rate Comparison State Rates
1996–1998 1998–2002
1996–1998 1998–2002
1996–1998 1998–2002
1 2
3 4
5 6
DCTAG-eligible Two-year
−17.3 99.8
42.2 −22.9
−59.5 122.7
Four-year, nontop-tier 7.5
80.5 −3.2
5.4 10.7
75.0 Four-year, top-tier
90.7 62.9
9.2 4.7
81.6 58.2
Total 8.2
80.8 −0.3
3.5 8.5
77.3 Non-DCTAG-eligible
Two-year −17.3
−77.9 17.2
−2.7 −34.5
−75.3 Four-year, nontop-tier
−17.9 −14.4
3.3 −1.0
−21.3 −13.4
Four-year, top-tier −2.3
−2.4 3.8
−5.3 −6.2
2.9 Total
−14.5 −11.8
6.6 −1.9
−21.2 −9.9
All schools Two-year
−17.3 74.4
17.8 −3.2
−35.1 77.7
Four-year, nontop-tier −11.4
15.1 2.5
−0.2 −13.8
15.3 Four-year, top-tier
2.6 3.9
4.2 −4.6
−1.7 8.5
Total −9.1
14.4 5.9
−1.4 −15.0
15.8
Source: Integrated Post-Secondary Education Data System Database and Digest of Education Statistics, various years. Note: Tabulations are based on the set of schools for which the IPEDS database contains valid records for the years 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002.
share of high school graduates going on to college.
18
If we are willing to assume, how- ever, that the number of students graduating from private high schools in each juris-
diction has grown at the same rate as the number graduating from public high schools, we can say something about how the share of high school graduates going on to col-
lege has changed. Under the stated assumption, the percent change in the share of high school graduates who enroll in college is approximately equal to the percent
change in the number of college freshmen minus the percent change in the number of public high school graduates.
19
Separate estimates can be prepared for different types of colleges. The estimated percent changes in the share of high school graduates who
enroll in college then can be compared across jurisdictions. The results of carrying out these calculations are reported in Table 7B. The figures
in the first two columns of the table are estimates of the percentage rates of growth in the shares of District high school graduates enrolling as freshmen at different types of
schools, first between 1996 and 1998 Column 1 and then between 1998 and 2002 Column 2. As would be expected, these numbers imply that the proportion of D.C.
high school graduates enrolling as freshmen at all types of DCTAG-eligible institu- tions—two year schools, lower-tier four year schools and top-tier four year schools—
increased sharply between 1998 and 2002, though as already noted the numerical changes in enrollments at two-year and top-tier four year public colleges were rela-
tively small. Over the same time period, enrollment shares at all types of non-DCTAG- eligible schools fell, though the decrease for four-year top-tier non-DCTAG-eligible
schools was very small. On net, the increases in the share of high school graduates going on to attend DCTAG-eligible institutions were so large that the overall share
attending college also rose substantially.
No similar increases in implied enrollment shares were observed for the compari- son states. Indeed, in these states, the overall share of high school graduates going on
to college appears to have fallen, albeit very slightly, between 1998 and 2002 Column 4. The final two columns of the table report the differences between the esti-
mated changes in share of District high school graduates going on to different types of schools and the corresponding changes in share for the comparison states. It seems
clear that the enrollment share trends in the District were unique, driven by the intro- duction of the DCTAG program.
18. There are also problems with constructing reliable time series on the number of private high school grad- uates for the comparison states. Data on the number of private high school graduates are collected in odd
years by the National Center of Education Statistics’ Private School Survey. Although the entire universe of private schools is in scope for this survey, some schools inevitably are missed. According to NCES staff, spu-
rious changes in the estimated number of graduates may occur between survey years as a result of additions to the survey register and the implementation of the small area estimation procedure used to account for
missing observations. See National Center for Education Statistics 1999 for further discussion of the state- level estimates from the Private School Survey.
19. A numerical example may be helpful. Suppose that, over some time period, the number of college fresh- men from a jurisdiction rose from 1,000 to 1,200 a 20 percent increase, the number of public high school
graduates rose from 1,500 to 1,650 a 10 percent increase, and the number of private high school graduates rose from 500 to 550 also a 10 percent increase. These numbers imply that the fraction of high school grad-
uates going on to college increased from 50 percent 10002000 to about 55 percent 12002200, a 10 per- cent increase. Under the stated assumptions, this percent change can be approximated by the difference
between the 20 percent growth in the number of college freshmen and the 10 percent growth in the number of public high school graduates.
The Journal of Human Resources 604
C. Estimates of the Effect of College Price on Enrollment and the Cost of Added Enrollment
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