The financial standard deviation principle

42 M. Schweizer Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 28 2001 31–47 can also think of h 1 γ as a benchmark value against which one can compare one’s own subjective assessments. In particular, the fact that h 1 zγ 6= zh 1 γ does not entail arbitrage opportunities because it may not be possible to actually trade at the “prices” suggested by h 1 .

5. The financial standard deviation principle

In this section, we determine the u-indifference prices h 2 c, γ for the valuation principle u 2 Y := E B Y B − A s Var B Y B . 5.1 By repeating the arguments in the proof of Theorem 10, we get h 2 γ = γ c H + sup g ∈ ¯ G E B h g B i − A r Var B h g B i − sup g ′ ∈ ¯ G   E B g ′ B − A s Var B g ′ B + γ 2 Var B N H B   . 5.2 We start by analyzing the last term. Lemma 11. Let G be a linear subspace of L 2 admitting no approximate profits in L 2 . For any y ∈ R, we then have sup g ∈ ¯ G E B h g B i − A r Var B h g B i + y 2 =      −A p y 2 for B ∈ G ⊥ , sup m ∈R m − A s m 2 Var B [d ˜ P dP B ] + y 2 for B ∈ G ⊥ . 5.3 Proof. If B ∈ G ⊥ , then E B [gB] = 1E[B 2 ]E[Bg] = 0 for all g ∈ ¯ G and so we can simply minimize the P B -variance of gB by choosing g = 0. For the case where B ∈ G ⊥ , the idea is to perform the maximization in two steps by first restricting attention to those g satisfying the constraint E B [gB] = m. In analogy to Corollary 16 of Schweizer 1996, we therefore define g m := c m B − πB := mE [B 2 ] E [B − πB 2 ] B − πB. Since B ∈ G ⊥ , we have E[BB − πB] = E[B − πB 2 ] 0 and so g m is well defined and in G ⊥⊥ = ¯ G since G is linear. Moreover, E B h g m B i = 1 E [B 2 ] E [Bg m ] = m. If we take any g ∈ ¯ G with E B [gB] = m, then kg − c m B k 2 = kg − g m + c m πB k 2 = kg − g m k 2 + c 2 m kπBk 2 ≥ c 2 m kπBk 2 = kg m − c m B k 2 , and so we deduce that Var B h g B i = Var B h g B − c m i = 1 E [B 2 ] kg − c m B k 2 − m − c m 2 ≥ Var B h g m B i . M. Schweizer Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 28 2001 31–47 43 This implies that sup E B h g B i − A r Var B h g B i + y 2 g ∈ ¯ G with E B h g B i = m = E B h g m B i − A r Var B h g m B i + y 2 = m − A s c 2 m Var B 1 − πB B + y 2 . But Var B 1 − πB B = 1 E [B 2 ] kB − πBk 2 − 1 E [B 2 ] E [BB − πB] 2 = 1 E [B 2 ] kB − πBk 2 − 1 E [B 2 ] E [B − πB 2 ] 2 , and so we get c 2 m Var B 1 − πB B = m 2 E [B 2 ] E [B − πB 2 ] − 1 = m 2 kπBk 2 kB − πBk 2 . Together with 3.4, this proves the assertion. The next result is elementary analysis; its proof is only included for completeness. Lemma 12. For any y ∈ R, let sy := sup x ∈R x − q Cx 2 + y 2 for a fixed C ≥ 0. Then s 0 − sy =    p y 2 r 1 − 1 C for C ≥ 1, undefined for C 1. Proof. Fix y ∈ R and let f x := x − p Cx 2 + y 2 for x ∈ R. Then lim x →±∞ f x |x| = lim x →±∞   ±1 − s C + y 2 x 2   = ±1 − √ C. 5.4 For C 1, this implies that lim x →±∞ f x = ±∞ and since f is continuous, we conclude that f has no finite maximum so that s ≡ +∞ in this case. For C ≥ 1, we write f x as f x = x 2 − Cx 2 + y 2 x + p Cx 2 + y 2 = 1 − Cx 2 − y 2 x + p Cx 2 + y 2 ; this shows that f ≤ 0. If C = 1, the numerator does not depend on x and the denominator goes to +∞ for x → +∞. Hence we conclude that s ≡ 0 in this case. If C 1 and y = 0, the maximum of f ≤ 0 is attained in x = 0 so that s0 = 0 for C 1. Finally, if C 1 and y 2 0, f is continuously differentiable with derivative f ′ x = 1 − Cx p Cx 2 + y 2 . Since f ′ 0 for x ≤ 0, it is easily checked that f ′ vanishes at the unique point x ∗ = p y 2 CC − 1 and f x ∗ = − p y 2 √ 1 − 1C by computation. By 5.4, f must have its maximum at x ∗ and so the assertion follows. Combining the two previous results, we now obtain the following theorem. 44 M. Schweizer Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 28 2001 31–47 Theorem 13. Let G be a linear subspace of L 2 admitting no approximate profits in L 2 . For any H ∈ L 2 and any γ , c ∈ R, the u 2 -indifference price for γ units of H is then h 2 c, γ = h 2 γ =                γ ˜ E H B + A|γ | s 1 − Var B [d ˜ P dP B ] A 2 s Var B N H B for A 2 ≥ Var B d ˜ P dP B , undefined for A 2 Var B d ˜ P dP B , 5.5 where ˜ E denotes expectation with respect to the B-variance optimal signed G, B -martingale measure ˜ P . Proof. We first observe that if B ∈ G ⊥ , then πB = B and therefore Var B [d ˜ P dP B ] = 0 by 3.2. This shows that for B ∈ G ⊥ , the second case in 5.5 will never occur. If B ∈ G ⊥ , then 5.2 and 5.3 imply that h 2 γ = γ c H + A s γ 2 Var B N H B = γ ˜ E H B + A|γ | s Var B N H B by Corollary 8. If B ∈ G ⊥ , then 5.2 and 5.3 yield h 2 γ = γ c H + sup m ∈R m − p Cm 2 − sup m ∈R   m − s Cm 2 + A 2 γ 2 Var B N H B   , where we have set C := A 2 Var B [d ˜ P dP B ] ≥ 0. From Lemma 12 and Corollary 8, we thus obtain h 2 γ = γ ˜ E H B + A|γ | s 1 − Var B [d ˜ P dP B ] A 2 s Var B N H B for C ≥ 1, while h 2 γ is undefined for C 1. This proves the assertion. Like 4.4, the valuation formula 5.5 has a very appealing interpretation. If we write ±h 2 ±1 =                ˜ E H B ± A s 1 − Var B [d ˜ P dP B ] A 2 s Var B N H B for A 2 ≥ Var B d ˜ P dP B , undefined for A 2 Var B d ˜ P dP B , 5.6 we see that our approach transforms the actuarial standard deviation principle 5.1 into the financial standard de- viation principle 5.6. Like 4.4, the valuation in 5.5 is based on the expectation under the B-variance-optimal signed G, B-martingale measure ˜ P and the intrinsic financial risk of H . The corresponding bid-ask spread is M. Schweizer Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 28 2001 31–47 45 given by h 2 +1 + h 2 −1 =                2A s 1 − Var B [d ˜ P dP B ] A 2 s Var B N H B for A 2 ≥ Var B d ˜ P dP B , undefined for A 2 Var B d ˜ P dP B . In contrast to 4.4, the valuation 5.5 is piecewise linear in the number γ of claims; hence the resulting selling and buying “prices” for an arbitrary amount of H are proportional to the selling and buying “price” of 1 unit of H , respectively. A second major difference to the last section is that all these results require a sufficiently high risk aversion for h 2 c, γ to be well defined. The lower bound on A depends on the P B -variance of the density of ˜ P with respect to P B . It is thus determined by the global properties of the financial environment G, B and in particular independent of the individual claim under consideration. In a very special case, a result like Theorem 13 has also been obtained by Aurell and ˙Z yczkowski 1996 by means of rather laborious calculations.

6. Two basic examples and an extension