Chebyshev’s Theorem

4.4 Chebyshev’s Theorem

In Section 4.2 we stated that the variance of a random variable tells us something about the variability of the observations about the mean. If a random variable has a small variance or standard deviation, we would expect most of the values to

be grouped around the mean. Therefore, the probability that the random variable assumes a value within a certain interval about the mean is greater than for a similar random variable with a larger standard deviation. If we think of probability in terms of area, we would expect a continuous distribution with a large value of σ to indicate a greater variability, and therefore we should expect the area to

be more spread out, as in Figure 4.2(a). A distribution with a small standard deviation should have most of its area close to μ, as in Figure 4.2(b).

136 Chapter 4 Mathematical Expectation

(b) Figure 4.2: Variability of continuous observations about the mean.

(a)

(a)

(b)

Figure 4.3: Variability of discrete observations about the mean.

We can argue the same way for a discrete distribution. The area in the prob- ability histogram in Figure 4.3(b) is spread out much more than that in Figure 4.3(a) indicating a more variable distribution of measurements or outcomes.

The Russian mathematician P. L. Chebyshev (1821–1894) discovered that the fraction of the area between any two values symmetric about the mean is related to the standard deviation. Since the area under a probability distribution curve or in a probability histogram adds to 1, the area between any two numbers is the probability of the random variable assuming a value between these numbers.

The following theorem, due to Chebyshev, gives a conservative estimate of the probability that a random variable assumes a value within k standard deviations of its mean for any real number k.

Exercises 137

Theorem 4.10: (Chebyshev’s Theorem) The probability that any random variable X will as-

sume a value within k standard deviations of the mean is at least 1 − 1/k 2 . That is,

P (μ − kσ < X < μ + kσ) ≥ 1 −

For k = 2, the theorem states that the random variable X has a probability of at least 1 − 1/2 2 = 3/4 of falling within two standard deviations of the mean. That is, three-fourths or more of the observations of any distribution lie in the interval μ ± 2σ. Similarly, the theorem says that at least eight-ninths of the observations of any distribution fall in the interval μ ± 3σ.

Example 4.27:

A random variable X has a mean μ = 8, a variance σ 2 = 9, and an unknown probability distribution. Find

(a) P (−4 < X < 20), (b) P (|X − 8| ≥ 6).

Solution : (a) P (−4 < X < 20) = P[8 − (4)(3) < X < 8 + (4)(3)] ≥ 15

16 . (b) P (|X − 8| ≥ 6) = 1 − P (|X − 8| < 6) = 1 − P (−6 < X − 8 < 6)

1 = 1 − P [8 − (2)(3) < X < 8 + (2)(3)] ≤ .

4 Chebyshev’s theorem holds for any distribution of observations, and for this reason the results are usually weak. The value given by the theorem is a lower bound only. That is, we know that the probability of a random variable falling within two standard deviations of the mean can be no less than 3/4, but we never know how much more it might actually be. Only when the probability distribution is known can we determine exact probabilities. For this reason we call the theorem

a distribution-free result. When specific distributions are assumed, as in future chapters, the results will be less conservative. The use of Chebyshev’s theorem is relegated to situations where the form of the distribution is unknown.

Exercises

4.53 Referring to Exercise 4.35 on page 127, find the tributor equal to three-fourths of the wholesale price. mean and variance of the discrete random variable If the probability distribution of the random variable Z = 3X − 2, when X represents the number of errors

X, the number of cartons that are sold from this lot, per 100 lines of code.

is

0 1 2 3 4 5 4.54 Using Theorem 4.5 and Corollary 4.6, find the

15 15 15 15 15 mean and variance of the random variable Z = 5X + 3, 15 where X has the probability distribution of Exercise find the expected profit.

f (x)

4.36 on page 127. 4.56 Repeat Exercise 4.43 on page 127 by applying 4.55 Suppose that a grocery store purchases 5 car- Theorem 4.5 and Corollary 4.6. tons of skim milk at the wholesale price of $1.20 per

carton and retails the milk at $1.65 per carton. After 4.57 Let X be a random variable with the following the expiration date, the unsold milk is removed from probability distribution: the shelf and the grocer receives a credit from the dis-

f (x)

138 Chapter 4 Mathematical Expectation Find E(X) and E(X 2 ) and then, using these values,

4.65 Let X represent the number that occurs when a evaluate E[(2X + 1) 2 ].

red die is tossed and Y the number that occurs when

a green die is tossed. Find

4.58 The total time, measured in units of 100 hours, (a) E(X + Y ); that a teenager runs her hair dryer over a period of one year is a continuous random variable X that has the (b) E(X − Y ); density function

(c) E(XY ).

⎧ ⎨ x,

4.66 Let X represent the number that occurs when a f (x) =

0 < x < 1,

2 − x, 1 ≤ x < 2, green die is tossed and Y the number that occurs when ⎩ 0,

elsewhere.

a red die is tossed. Find the variance of the random variable

Use Theorem 4.6 to evaluate the mean of the random variable Y = 60X 2

(a) 2X − Y ;

+ 39X, where Y is equal to the (b) X + 3Y − 5. number of kilowatt hours expended annually.

4.67 If the joint density function of X and Y is given 4.59 If a random variable X is defined such that

by

2 E[(X − 1) 2 ] = 10 and E[(X − 2) ] = 6,

0 < x < 1, 1 < y < 2, 2 find μ and σ f (x, y) = . 0,

7 (x + 2y),

elsewhere,

find the expected value of g(X, Y ) = X 3 +X 4.60 Suppose that X and Y are independent random 2 Y Y. variables having the joint probability distribution

4.68 The power P in watts which is dissipated in an f (x, y)

2 4 electric circuit with resistance R is known to be given 2 1 0.10 0.15 by P = I R, where I is current in amperes and R is a

y 3 0.20 0.30 constant fixed at 50 ohms. However, I is a random vari- 5 0.10 0.15 able with μ I = 15 amperes and σ 2 = 0.03 amperes I 2 .

Give numerical approximations to the mean and vari- Find

ance of the power P .

(a) E(2X − 3Y ); (b) E(XY ).

4.69 Consider Review Exercise 3.77 on page 108. The random variables X and Y represent the number of ve- hicles that arrive at two separate street corners during

a certain 2-minute period in the day. The joint distri- for the joint probability distribution shown in Table bution is

4.61 Use Theorem 4.7 to evaluate E(2XY 2 −X 2 Y)

3.1 on page 96. 1 9 4.62 If X and Y are independent random variables

, with variances σ 2

f (x, y) =

(x+y)

X = 5 and σ 2 Y = 3, find the variance

of the random variable Z = −2X + 4Y − 3. for x = 0, 1, 2, . . . and y = 0, 1, 2, . . . . (a) Give E(X), E(Y ), Var(X), and Var(Y ).

4.63 Repeat Exercise 4.62 if X and Y are not inde- pendent and σ XY = 1.

(b) Consider Z = X + Y , the sum of the two. Find

E(Z) and Var(Z).

4.64 Suppose that X and Y are independent random variables with probability densities and

4.70 Consider Review Exercise 3.64 on page 107. There are two service lines. The random variables X

x 3 , x > 2, and Y are the proportions of time that line 1 and line g(x) = 0,

elsewhere,

2 are in use, respectively. The joint probability density function for (X, Y ) is given by

and

0 ≤ x, y ≤ 1, h(y) =

(a) Determine whether or not X and Y are indepen- Find the expected value of Z = XY .

dent.

Review Exercises 139 (b) It is of interest to know something about the pro- Then do it not by using f (y), but rather by using

portion of Z = X + Y , the sum of the two propor- the first-order Taylor series approximation to Var(e Y ). tions. Find E(X + Y ). Also find E(XY ).

Comment!

(c) Find Var(X), Var(Y ), and Cov(X, Y ). 4.75 An electrical firm manufactures a 100-watt light (d) Find Var(X + Y ).

bulb, which, according to specifications written on the package, has a mean life of 900 hours with a standard

4.71 The length of time Y , in minutes, required to deviation of 50 hours. At most, what percentage of generate a human reflex to tear gas has the density the bulbs fail to last even 700 hours? Assume that the function

distribution is symmetric about the mean.

4.76 Seventy new jobs are opening up at an automo- bile manufacturing plant, and 1000 applicants show up (a) What is the mean time to reflex?

elsewhere.

for the 70 positions. To select the best 70 from among the applicants, the company gives a test that covers

(b) Find E(Y 2 ) and Var(Y ). mechanical skill, manual dexterity, and mathematical

ability. The mean grade on this test turns out to be 4.72 A manufacturing company has developed a ma-

60, and the scores have a standard deviation of 6. Can chine for cleaning carpet that is fuel-efficient because

a person who scores 84 count on getting one of the it delivers carpet cleaner so rapidly. Of interest is a jobs? [Hint: Use Chebyshev’s theorem.] Assume that

random variable Y , the amount in gallons per minute the distribution is symmetric about the mean. delivered. It is known that the density function is given by

4.77 A random variable X has a mean μ = 10 and a variance σ 1, 2 = 4. Using Chebyshev’s theorem, find f (y) =

7 ≤ y ≤ 8, 0, elsewhere.

(a) P (|X − 10| ≥ 3); (b) P (|X − 10| < 3);

(a) Sketch the density function.

(c) P (5 < X < 15);

(b) Give E(Y ), E(Y 2 ), and Var(Y ). (d) the value of the constant c such that 4.73 For the situation in Exercise 4.72, compute

E(e Y ) using Theorem 4.1, that is, by using P (|X − 10| ≥ c) ≤ 0.04.

E(e Y )=

e y f (y) dy.

Then compute E(e Y ) not by using f (y), but rather by 4.78 Compute P (μ − 2σ < X < μ + 2σ), where X using the second-order adjustment to the first-order has the density function approximation of E(e Y ). Comment.

4.74 Consider again the situation of Exercise 4.72. It f (x) = 6x(1 − x), 0 < x < 1, is required to find Var(e Y ). Use Theorems 4.2 and 4.3

elsewhere, and define Z = e Y . Thus, use the conditions of Exer-

cise 4.73 to find and compare with the result given in Chebyshev’s

Var(Z) = E(Z 2 ) − [E(Z)] 2 .

theorem.

Review Exercises

4.79 Prove Chebyshev’s theorem. 4.81 Referring to the random variables whose joint probability density function is given in Exercise 3.47 4.80 Find the covariance of random variables X and on page 105, find the average amount of kerosene left Y having the joint probability density function

in the tank at the end of the day. f (x, y) = x + y,

4.82 Assume the length X, in minutes, of a particu- 0,

0 < x < 1, 0 < y < 1,

elsewhere. lar type of telephone conversation is a random variable

140 Chapter 4 Mathematical Expectation with probability density function

4.91 A dealer’s profit, in units of $5000, on a new au- tomobile is a random variable X having density func- 1 e −x/5 , x > 0,

tion

f (x) = 5 0,

f (x) = 2(1 − x), 0 ≤ x ≤ 1, (a) Determine the mean length E(X) of this type of

elsewhere.

elsewhere. telephone conversation.

(a) Find the variance of the dealer’s profit. (b) Find the variance and standard deviation of X.

(b) Demonstrate that Chebyshev’s theorem holds for ].

(c) Find E[(X + 5) 2

k = 2 with the density function above. (c) What is the probability that the profit exceeds

4.83 Referring to the random variables whose joint

density function is given in Exercise 3.41 on page 105, find the covariance between the weight of the creams

4.92 Consider Exercise 4.10 on page 117. Can it be and the weight of the toffees in these boxes of choco- said that the ratings given by the two experts are in-

lates. dependent? Explain why or why not. 4.84 Referring to the random variables whose joint

probability density function is given in Exercise 3.41 4.93 A company’s marketing and accounting depart- on page 105, find the expected weight for the sum of ments have determined that if the company markets

the creams and toffees if one purchased a box of these its newly developed product, the contribution of the chocolates.

product to the firm’s profit during the next 6 months will be described by the following:

4.85 Suppose it is known that the life X of a partic- Profit Contribution Probability ular compressor, in hours, has the density function

0.5 900 e f (x) = −x/900 , x > 0,

What is the company’s expected profit? (a) Find the mean life of the compressor.

elsewhere.

4.94 In a support system in the U.S. space program, (b) Find E(X 2 ).

a single crucial component works only 85% of the time. (c) Find the variance and standard deviation of the In order to enhance the reliability of the system, it is random variable X.

decided that 3 components will be installed in parallel such that the system fails only if they all fail. Assume the components act independently and that they are

4.86 Referring to the random variables whose joint equivalent in the sense that all 3 of them have an 85% density function is given in Exercise 3.40 on page 105, success rate. Consider the random variable X as the

(a) find μ X and μ Y ; number of components out of 3 that fail. (b) find E[(X + Y )/2].

(a) Write out a probability function for the random

variable X.

4.87 Show that Cov(aX, bY ) = ab Cov(X, Y ). (b) What is E(X) (i.e., the mean number of compo-

nents out of 3 that fail)?

4.88 Consider the density function of Review Ex- (c) What is Var(X)? ercise 4.85. Demonstrate that Chebyshev’s theorem (d) What is the probability that the entire system is holds for k = 2 and k = 3.

successful?

4.89 Consider the joint density function (e) What is the probability that the system fails?

(f) If the desire is to have the system be successful x 3 , x > 2, 0 < y < 1,

with probability 0.99, are three components suffi- f (x, y) = 0,

16y

elsewhere. cient? If not, how many are required? Compute the correlation coefficient ρ XY .

4.95 In business, it is important to plan and carry out research in order to anticipate what will occur at the 4.90 Consider random variables X and Y of Exercise end of the year. Research suggests that the profit (loss) 4.63 on page 138. Compute ρ XY .

spectrum for a certain company, with corresponding probabilities, is as follows:

Review Exercises 141 Profit

4.98 A convenience store has two separate locations −$15, 000

Probability

0.05 where customers can be checked out as they leave. $0

0.15 These locations each have two cash registers and two $15,000

0.15 employees who check out customers. Let X be the $25,000

0.30 number of cash registers being used at a particular time $40,000

0.15 for location 1 and Y the number being used at the same $50,000

0.10 time for location 2. The joint probability function is $100,000

0.05 given by

0 1 2 (a) What is the expected profit?

0 0.12 0.04 0.04 (b) Give the standard deviation of the profit.

4.96 It is known through data collection and consid- (a) Give the marginal density of both X and Y as well erable research that the amount of time in seconds that

as the probability distribution of X given Y = 2. a certain employee of a company is late for work is a

random variable X with density function

(b) Give E(X) and Var(X).

(c) Give E(X | Y = 2) and Var(X | Y = 2).

(4)(50 3 ) (50 2 −x f (x) = ), −50 ≤ x ≤ 50, 0,

4.99 Consider a ferry that can carry both buses and cars across a waterway. Each trip costs the owner ap- In other words, he not only is slightly late at times, proximately $10. The fee for cars is $3 and the fee for but also can be early to work.

elsewhere.

buses is $8. Let X and Y denote the number of buses (a) Find the expected value of the time in seconds that and cars, respectively, carried on a given trip. The he is late.

joint distribution of X and Y is given by (b) Find E(X 2 ).

x (c) What is the standard deviation of the amount of

0 1 2 time he is late?

4.97 A delivery truck travels from point A to point B 2 0.03 0.06 0.06 and back using the same route each day. There are four

4 0.12 0.04 0.03 of red lights the truck encounters going from A to B

traffic lights on the route. Let X 1 denote the number

and X 2 denote the number encountered on the return Compute the expected profit for the ferry trip. trip. Data collected over a long period suggest that the

joint probability distribution for (X 1 ,X 2 ) is given by

4.100 As we shall illustrate in Chapter 12, statistical x 2 methods associated with linear and nonlinear models

x 3 4 1 are very important. In fact, exponential functions are 0 1 2 often used in a wide variety of scientific and engineering 0 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.01 problems. Consider a model that is fit to a set of data

1 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.03 0.02 involving measured values k 1 and k 2 and a certain re- 2 0.03 0.11 0.15 0.01 0.01 sponse Y to the measurements. The model postulated 3 0.02 0.07 0.10 0.03 0.01 is

Y=e ˆ b 0 +b 1 k 1 +b 2 k 2 ,

(a) Give the marginal density of X 1 . (b) Give the marginal density of X 2 .

where ˆ Y denotes the estimated value of Y, k 1 and (c) Give the conditional density distribution of X 1 k 2 are fixed values, and b 0 ,b 1 , and b 2 are estimates given X 2 = 3.

of constants and hence are random variables. Assume that these random variables are independent and use

(d) Give E(X 1 ). the approximate formula for the variance of a nonlinear (e) Give E(X 2 ).

function of more than one variable. Give an expression (f) Give E(X 1 |X 2 = 3).

for Var( ˆ Y ). Assume that the means of b 0 ,b 1 , and b 2

(g) Give the standard deviation of X 1 .

are known and are β 0 ,β 1 , and β 2 , and assume that the variances of b 2 0 ,b 1 , and b 2 are known and are σ 2 0 ,σ 1 2 ,

and σ 2 .

142 Chapter 4 Mathematical Expectation 4.101 Consider Review Exercise 3.73 on page 108. It (c) Find the variance of the random variable Z = 1−Y .

involved Y , the proportion of impurities in a batch, and the density function is given by

4.102 Project: Let X = number of hours each stu-

f (y) = 10(1 − y) ,

dent in the class slept the night before. Create a dis- 0,

0 ≤ y ≤ 1,

crete variable by using the following arbitrary intervals: X < 3, 3 ≤ X < 6, 6 ≤ X < 9, and X ≥ 9. (a) Find the expected percentage of impurities.

elsewhere.

(a) Estimate the probability distribution for X. (b) Find the expected value of the proportion of quality (b) Calculate the estimated mean and variance for X.

material (i.e., find E(1 − Y )).