Table 2.2 Land Cover and Land Use in Scale of 1:250.000 continue
No Land Cover Classification
Description 2.3.5
Coral Reefs Collection of marine fauna gathered into one
and form reefs.
2.3.6 The Sandbar Beach
The appearance of the sand on the sea surface and sometimes drowned during neap tide, width
50 m, and not overgrown vegetation.
Source: SNI, 2010 Those classifications mentioned in the table 2.2 are composite from all land use
and land cover all over Indonesia. To facilitate the classification in the Singaraja City and its surrounding area, land use or land cover class would refer to spatial plan
document of Buleleng Regency. According to Buleleng Spatial Plan land use classes in the Buleleng Regencey grouped into roads, streams, lake, settlement, forest,
plantation, rice field, field, bushes and shrubs, swamp forest, salting area, and dam.
2.2. Land Use Modeling
2.2.1 Definition of Model
Model is a formal representation of some theories about the case Wilson, 1974. The model can be regarded as an abstraction, an approximation to reality
achieved through simplification of the complex that can be understood and analyzed. The theory provides a general framework to describe a statement of process while the
model is a structured representation of the ideal and the real world Johnston et al., 1994. Harris 1966 even considered model as an experimental design. Definition of
the model is also described by Handoko 2005 who explains that the model is a simplification of a system in the real world. Handoko 2005 also distinguish models
with the system, he says the system is the mechanism by which various components interact with each other in a certain way to indicate its function in the real world.
Another definition is based spatial proposed by Berger et al. 2001, in which a model is an abstraction of a real world system that has significant problems of detail
with the problems being studied and also has transparency, so that the mechanisms and key factors affecting the change can be identified. The purpose of the model is
easy to understand how the system works to simplify the process. The model can be used to represent a specific issue on the science related to
natural resources, and a variety of other disciplines. Modeling land-use change is one form of modeling that has attracted the attention of several researchers in the world.
They studied the existence of a causal relationship between the management of a land with land use changes. Modeling land-use change has several uses, among
others, to explore a variety of activities in which the occurrence of a change in land use driven by socioeconomic factors Batty and Longley, 1994, predicting the
economic and environmental impacts that will result from these changes Theobald and Hobbs, 1998 and to evaluate the impact of government policy in determining
the designation of land and land management Bockstael et al., 1995. It is expected that land use change models have been developed to provide an understanding of the
process of land use change and the factors that foster change. In general, Briassoulis 2000 describe classification of model for analysis of
land use and its changes. These models are classified into five major groups, namely statistics and econometrics, spatial interaction models, optimistic model, integrated
model and other modeling approaches. Table 2.3 show model classification by Briassoulis 2000.
Table 2.3. Classification of Land Use Change Model
Modeling Category Representative Models
Spatial Interaction Model Econometric Model
Logit Multinomial Canonical Correlation Analysis
Model Potential Model
Opportunities Intervening Model GravitySpatial Interaction Model
Optimistic Model Single multi objective linear
program Model Dynamic Program
Objective Programming, Hierarchy Programing, Quadratic and Linear
Program, and Non-Linear Program Maximum Utility Model
Multi ObjectiveCriteria Decision Making Model
Integrated Models Integrated econometric type model
Integrated Lowry and Spatial based interaction-Gravity Model
Simulation Model Simulation
Model UrbanMetropolitan Level
Simulation Model Regional, e.g. CLUE Conversion Land Use and
Its Effect Level Simulation Model Global Level
Other Model Approach Modeling
Approaches Based
Natural Science
Table 2.3. Classification of Land Use Change Model continue
Modeling Category Representative Models
Markov Land Use Change Modeling Land Use Change Modeling Based
GIS Source: Briassoulis, 2000
2.2.2 Projection Using Markov Chain Cellular Automata
