Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub District West Java
SIMULATION MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE FORAGE
SUPPLY FOR DAIRY FARMING IN LEMBANG SUB
DISTRICT WEST JAVA
WINDI AL ZAHRA
GRADUATE SCHOOL
BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
BOGOR
2012
STATEMENT
I, Windi Al Zahra, herby stated that this thesis entitled:
Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for Dairy Farming in
Lembang Sub District West Java
Is a result on my own work under the supervisor advisory board during the
period October 2011- April 2012 and that it has not been published before. The
content of the thesis has been examined by the advising advisory board and
external examiner.
Bogor, May 2012
Windi Al Zahra
P052100161
ABSTRACT
WINDI AL ZAHRA. Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for
Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub District West Java. Under the supervision of
ASEP SAEFUDDIN and LUKI ABDULLAH
Forage supply is the core issue in dairy farming productivity in
Indonesia. The restricted forage supply is mainly due to the limited farming
land owened by the farmers. This research was carried out to formulate the
simulation model of forage supply sustainability for daory farming in Lembang
Sub district, West Java. Method of this research was collecting data from (1)
desk study, (2) survey,(3) interview with the stakeholder, (4) FGD (Focuse
Group Discussion). The model was built by using the system approach; need
assessment, problem formulation, system identification (causal loop and inputoutput diagram) and model formulation. The model simulation software
program used in this study was Powersim Studio 2005. There were four
submodels built; population submodel, dairy cattle population submodel,
economic submodel, and forage availability submodel. Based on the dynamic
simulation, it was obtained the amount of population as 207.025 ppl in the end
of year simulation (20 years), 15.392 AU for dairy cattle population,
48.722.025 litter for milk production, Rp. 157.372.140.750,00 for the revenue
from milk yield, 40.484,52 ton for forage production and 165.492,73 ton for
forage requirement. Policy analysis was exceeding from the model built.
Sensitivity’s test was the real form of intervention from model structures. It
showed how sensitive the model as the changes of output and it showed what
the effect resulted. Model validation was done by statistical method; MAPE
(Mean Percentage Error). The spatial analysis was done to determine the
ecological suitability for forage management.
Keywords: model simulation, dairy cattle, forage sustainability
ABSTRAK
WINDI AL ZAHRA. Model Simulasi Penyediaan Hijauan Makanan Ternak
(HMT) yang Berkelanjutan bagi Usaha Ternak Sapi Perah di Lembang, Jawa
Barat. Dibimbing oleh ASEP SAEFUDDIN dan LUKI ABDULLAH
Ketersediaan bahan pakan merupakan isu penting dalam usaha
peternakan sapi perah. Sapi perah mempunyai ketergantungan yang tinggi
terhadap ketersediaan Hijauan Makanan Ternak (HMT) , hal ini terkait dengan
produksi susu yang akan dihasilkan nantinya. Permasalahan menjadi semakin
kompleks ketika keterbatasan lahan dalam penyediaan HMT. Penelitian ini
dilakukan untuk memformulasikan model penyediaan HMT secara
berkelanjutan bagi usaha ternak sapi perah di Lembang, Jawa Barat. Metode
yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini diantaranya adalah (1) desk study, (2)
survey,(3) wawancara dengan stakeholder, (4) FGD (Focuse Group
Discussion). Model yang dibangun dengan menggunakan pendekatan sistem
(system approach) yang dimulai dengan melakukan analisis kebutuhan,
formulasi masalah, identifikasi sistem (causal loop dan diagram input-output)
dan formulasi model. Simulasi model dengan menggunakan analisis sistem
dengan menggunakan Powersim Studio 2005. Empat submodel dibangun
dalam penelitian ini yaitu (1) submodel populasi, (2)submodel populasi sapi
perah, (3) submodel ekonomi, (4) dan submodel ketersediaan HMT.
Berdasarkan hasil analisis sistem dinamis didapatkan jumlah populasi sebesar
207.025 jiwa di akhir tahun simulasi (20 tahun), populasi ternak perah sebesar
15.392 AU produksi susu mencapai 48.722.025 litter, pendapatan dari hasil
produksi susu Rp. 157.372.140.75.00, produksi HMT sebesar 40.484,52 ton
dan kebutuhan HMT bagi sapi perah sebesar 165.492,73 ton. Skenario analisis
sistem dinamis dilakukan dengan melakukan intervensi untuk mengetahui
sensitivitas dari variable dalam model. Validasi model dilakukan dengan
menggunakan analisis statistic; MAPE (Mean Percentage Error). Analisis
spasial dilakukan untuk menentukan kesesuian ekologis bagi manajemen
HMT.
Kata Kunci: model simulasi, sapi perah, ketersediaan HMT.
SUMMARY
WINDI AL ZAHRA. Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for
Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub District West Java. Under the supervision of
ASEP SAEFUDDIN and LUKI ABDULLAH
Dairy cattle have a highly dependence on forage for its daily diet that
will influence the milk production. It is assumed that an adequate amount of
forage will lead automatically to the higher milk production. Thus, it is very
important in securing forage supply in order for sustainability of dairy farming.
Forage sustainability should be observed by ecology, economy and social
aspects. A model is needed on how the system works in providing forage in
Lembang. It built by using a dynamic model that showed the time function due
to the input changes for every variable observed. The broad objective of this
research was building a simulation model of forage sustainability for dairy
farming in Lembang. The specific aims of this research were (1) to identify
forage and dairy farming condition in Lembang and seek for related factors of
forage availability considering the ecology, economy and social aspect (2) to
simulate the model that be built to estimate the availability of forage (3) to
formulate the policy of decision making from the model simulation built to
support management systems of dairy farms. This research was done in
Lembang Sub-district, west java province. The research spent for 4 months,
since November 2011- February 2012. The method used to collect information
as follows: 1) Desk study from the previous information and research, 2)
survey to collect the quantitative and qualitative data, 3) interview, 4) Focus
Group Discussion (FGD) with the stakeholder. The respondents (the dairy
farmers) were divided into four groups, they are the owned land for forage
farmers (FOL), the renting land forage farmers (FRA), the sharing land area
farmers with Perhutani (FSL) and the non land-forage farmers (FNL). The
model was built by using the system approach; need assessment, problem
formulation, system identification and model formulation. The model
simulation was used Powersim Studio 2005. Validation was done by
quantitative behavior pattern comparison. The model of forage sustainability
for dairy farm was validated by using MAPE test (mean absolute percentage
error). MAPE refers to diminished number between the actual and the simulate
data. The policy analysis was considering the carrying capacity in Lembang.
The method for counting carrying capacity is using ICPRC (Increasing
Capacity Population of Ruminant Cattle). The spatial analysis of ecology
suitability for forage in Lembang was done by considering suitability of forage
management to determine the pathway of policy analysis. The ecological
suitability was made from the criteria of land suitability that have been
appointed.
There was four submodels built; population submodel, dairy cattle
population submodel, economic submodel, and forage availability submodel. It
was found the stakeholders on this research; Dairy farmers, KPSBU, Animal
Livestock Services and Perhutani. Based on the dynamic simulation, it
obtained the amount of population was only 143.669 ppl in 2006 and changed
dramatically into 207.025 ppl in 2025. The dairy cattle population was 12.433
AU in 2006 to 15.392 AU in the end of simulation year. The milk production
was 37.870.575 litter in 2006 and it is predicting will be 48.722.025 litter in
2025. The revenue was Rp. 122.321.957.250 in the early simulation and it is
going to increase rapidly for Rp. 157.372.140.750 in the end of simulation
year. Forage production was 45.097.11 ton and it will be calculated increasing
smoothly for 40.484,52 ton in 2025. Forage requirement was predicted
132.698,75 ton and it will change for 165.492,73 ton in 2025. Policy analysis
accessed from the model built. Sensitivity’s test was the real form of
intervention from model structures. It will show how sensitive the model is as
the changes of output and it will also show how the effect resulted. There were
three scenario used; Scenario 1 was focused on the increment of population
(3%) and dairy cattle population (5%). Scenario 2 was focused on the
increment of population (5%) and dairy cattle population (7%), the extension
of plantation area for forage and while milk price was constant.
Scenario 3
was focused on the increment of population (10%), and dairy cattle population
(10%), the improving of management and the increment of milk price. The
ecological suitability was the primary requirements for forage management in
Lembang. The ecological suitability was done by classified some criteria in
order to get optimum forage production. The ecological suitability carried out
for the land evaluation. The result of overlapping has been resulted the
potential ecology suitability for forage management. Land suitability was
physically divided into 4 classes; highly suitable (S1) for 1.150,71 Ha,
moderate suitable (S2) for 4.390,07 Ha, marginally suitable (S3) for 881,06
Ha, not suitable (N) for 1.115,17 Ha and it was found constrain (C) for
2.211,22 Ha that became the restriction point for forage management. The GIS
analysis deals with the actual suitability for forage management. It was done by
combined The Governor Direction Map into a single layer. Land suitability
was physically divided into 4 classes; highly suitable (S1) for 1.055,31Ha,
moderate suitable (S2) for 4.377,98 Ha, marginally suitable (S3) for 1.108,97
Ha, not suitable (N) for 1.105,1 Ha and it was found constrain (C) for 2.100,26
Ha
Keywords: model simulation, dairy cattle, forage sustainability
Copyright @2012, Bogor Agricultural University
Copyright are protected by law
1. It is prohibited to cite all part of this thesis without referencing to and
mention the source :
a. Citation only permitted for the sake education, research, scientific
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b. Citation does not inflict the name and honor of Bogor Agricultural
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2. It is prohibited to republish and reproduce all part of this thesis without
written permission from Bogor Agricultural University
SIMULATION MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE FORAGE
SUPPLY FOR DAIRY FARMING IN LEMBANG SUB
DISTRICT WEST JAVA
WINDI AL ZAHRA
P052100161
A thesis submitted for the Degree Programs of Master of Science in
Natural Resources and Environmental Management
GRADUATE SCHOOL
BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
2012
External examiner: Dr. Ir. Hartisari, DEA
Research Title
: Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply
for Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub-district, West Java
Name
Student ID
: Windi Al Zahra
: P052100161
Study Program
: Natural Resources and Environmental Management
Approved by,
Advisory Board
Dr. Ir. Asep Saefuddin,
M.Sc
Dr. Ir. Luki Abdullah M.Sc
Supervisior
Co Supervisor
Endorsed by,
Program Coordinator
Dean of Graduate School
Prof. Dr. Ir. Cecep Kusmana, M.Sc
Dr. Ir. Dahrul Syah, M.Sc.Agr
Date of Examination
:
: May 16th 2012
Date of graduation
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Allah SWT the Al
Mighty for the mercy, favor, bless me to carry out this task entitled
“Simulation Modelling to Analyze Forage Sustainability for Dairy Farming in
Lembang
Sub-District, West Java” with sound health and
mind. This thesis submitted for the Degree Programs of Master of Science in
Natural Resources and Environmental Management
I wish to express my earnest thanks and sincere appreciation to Dr. Ir.
Asep Saefuddin, M.Sc and Dr. Ir. Luki Abdullah who acted respectively as my
respected Chairman and Member of Advisory Committee. I deeply appreciate
them for their constant guidance and support during the work. Without their
guidance, the result of my work would have been less than desirable. I am also
especially grateful to all staff of Study Program in Natural Resources and
Environmental Management for helped me during I studied.
I am very grateful to those who have helped me throughout this
research The North Cooperative Dairy Cattle (KPSBU), The Animal Livestock
and Services West Bandung District, BPN, Central Bureau of Statistic (BPS)
for providing me data on this research. The special appreciation is given to Mr.
Hermawan Prasetya, S.T.M.T, the doctoral student, who helped me during the
discussion about the dynamic system analysis. Mr. Syaidina Ali and his wife
for the time during discussed about SIG. My profound gratitude goes to my
friends in PSL 2010. I relay grateful to appreciate for the advice, assistance and
camaraderie and best wishes to you all.
Finally, I would like to thank to my parents Mr. Nana Mahdi and Mrs.
Wiwi Mulyawati, my sister, Sindi Fathonah Halimah and my fiancée,
Mustahgfirin for making all of this possible through their continued support,
pray and love. They have always been here to set me on the right path and for
that I am eternally grateful. They are the reason that I have been able to
succeed.
うもありが ございます-
Bogor, May 2012
Windi Al Zahra
CURRICULUM VITAE
Windi Al Zahra was born in Bogor, West Java on 14th February 1989.
She is the first daughter of Mr. Nana Mahdi and Mrs. Wiwi Mulyawati. She
finished her elementary school in SD Al-Ghazali Bogor, the Junior high school
finished in SMP 9 Bogor, and finished her Senior high school in SMU 9 Bogor.
She accepted in Bogor Agricultural University in Faculty of Animal Science,
Department of Animal Science and Technology Production in 2006 and
officially she received her bachelor degree in 2010. In 2010 she pursued her
master degree at Natural Resources and Environmental Management Program.
During study, she often joined international seminar and workshop. She joined
International Basic Science International Conference (BASIC) in Malang, East
Java Province. She also joined Winter Course in Ibaraki University in Japan.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Table ..................................................................................................
Page
xv
List of Figure .................................................................................................
xvi
I. INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................
1
1.1 Background ......................................................................................
1
1.2 Objectives .........................................................................................
3
1.3 The Significance of Study .................................................................
3
1.4 Conceptual Framework .....................................................................
4
II. LITERATURE RIVEW ...........................................................................
6
2.1 Feed Resources for Dairy Cattle .......................................................
7
2.2 Conceptual Framework for Forage Aviability ..................................
8
2.2.1 The Definition of Forage for Dairy Farming .................................
8
2.2.2 Forage Productivity ..................................................................
9
2.2.3 The Importance of Forage Supply ...........................................
10
2.3 Dairy Cattle Enterprises in Indonesia ...............................................
12
2.4 The Dynamic System Approach .......................................................
13
2.4.1 The Understanding of Dynamic System ........................................
13
2.4.2 Model Formulation ..................................................................
15
2.4.3 Model Simulation by Using Dynamic System .........................
17
2.4.4 Verification and Validation on Dynamic System ....................
18
2.5 Geographic Information Systems (GIS)............................................
20
III. METHODOLOGY..................................................................................
23
3.1 Location and Time ............................................................................
23
3.2 Materials............................................................................................
23
3.3 Methods .............................................................................................
24
3.4 Technique for Collecting Data and Data Used .................................
24
3.5 Data Analysis ....................................................................................
25
3.5.1 How the Model is built for Forage Sustainability ..............
25
3.5.1.1 Need Assessment ........................................................
26
3.5.1.2 Problems Formulation ............................................
26
3.5.1.3 System Identification .............................................
27
3.5.1.4 Model Formulation ...................................................
28
3.6 Verification and Validation .........................................................
32
3.7 Policy Analysis due to the Forage Sustainability on Dairy
Farming .......................................................................................
32
3.8 The spatial Analysis of Ecology Suitability for Forage
Management ...............................................................................
34
IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION ...............................................................
37
4.1 General Condition of the Study Area ..............................................
37
4.1.1 Demography ..........................................................................
37
4.1.2 Climate ..................................................................................
38
4.1.3 Topography ...........................................................................
38
4.2 The Model of Forage Sustainability in Lembang Sub district ....
39
4.2.1 Stakeholder Identification.................................................
39
4.2.1.1 Dairy Farmers ....................................................
39
4.2.1.2 The North Dairy Coop .......................................
40
4.2.1.3 Animal Livestock Services of West
Bandung District ................................................
42
4.2.1.4 Perum Perhutani ...............................................
42
4.2.2 Need Assessment ..............................................................
43
4.2.3 Problem Analysis ..............................................................
45
4.2.4 System Identification ........................................................
46
4.2.5 Model Formulation ...........................................................
47
4.2.5.1 Population Submodel .........................................
48
4.2.5.2 Dairy Cattle Population Submodel ....................
49
4.2.5.3 The Economic Submodel...................................
50
4.2.5.4 The Forgae Availability Submodel....................
51
4.3 The Analysis of Model Behavior ................................................
54
4.4 Verification and Validation Model .............................................
63
4.5 The Policy Analysis due to The Model of Forage
Sustainability ................................................................................
65
4.6. The Spatial Analysis of Ecology Suitability for
Forage Management ...............................................................................
74
CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATION ...............................................
81
REFERENCES..............................................................................................
83
APPENDICES ..............................................................................................
89
LIST OF TABLE
1. Data type and sources .............................................................................
25
2. General criteria of ecological suitability for forage
(Pennisetum Purpureum SCHUM) ..........................................................
34
3. Demography data of Lembang Sub-district ............................................
37
4. The climate information in Lembang Sub-district ..................................
38
5. Elevation level in Lembang Sub-district .................................................
39
6. The amount of respondents based on land availability for foraging .......
39
7. The amount of respondent area for foraging ...........................................
40
8. Dairy cattle population, milk production, and members of KPSBU
Since 2000-2010 .......................................................................................
41
9. Population of dairy cattle in West Bandung District area .......................
42
10. Need assessment analysis........................................................................
45
11. The amount of population based on simulation period ...........................
54
12. The amount of dairy cattle population based on simulation period ........
55
13. The amount of milk production based on simulation period ..................
57
14. The amount of revenue based on simulation period ...............................
58
15. The amount of forage production based on simulation period ...............
60
16. The amount of forage requirement based on simulation period .............
61
17. The population, dairy cattle population, milk production, revenue,
forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period.....................................................................................
63
18. The amount of population, dairy cattle population, milk production,
revenue, forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period (scenario 1).................................................................
67
19. The amount of population, dairy cattle population, milk production,
revenue, forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period (scenario 2).................................................................
69
20. The amount of population, dairy cattle population, milk production,
revenue, forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period (scenario 3).................................................................
72
21. The land use classification in Lembang on 2009 ....................................
76
22. The calculation of potential ecology area for forage suitability .............
76
23. The potential area for ecology sustainability for forage (villages) .........
77
24. The calculation of actual ecology area for forage suitability ..................
78
25. The actual area for ecology sustainability for forage (villages) ..............
79
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Research framework................................................................................
5
2. Location of study area .............................................................................
23
3. The step on how the model is built by using system approach ...............
26
4. Input-output diagram...............................................................................
27
5. Flow diagram by using Powersim Studio 2005 ......................................
29
6. Symbol of level .......................................................................................
30
7. Symbol of rate .........................................................................................
31
8. Symbol of auxiliary .................................................................................
31
9. Symbol of constanta ................................................................................
31
10. Symbol of source and sink ......................................................................
31
11. Symbol of link .........................................................................................
32
12. Chart of GIS applications on ecology land suitability
for forage management ............................................................................
35
13. Input-output diagram...............................................................................
46
14. Flow diagram of population in Lembang ................................................
48
15. Flow diagram of the dairy cattle population ...........................................
49
16. Flow diagram of economic submodel in Lembang .................................
50
17. Flow diagram of forage availability ........................................................
52
18. The model of forage sustainability for dairy farming in Lembang .........
53
19. The graph of population based on simulation period ..............................
54
20. The graph of dairy cattle population based on simulation period ...........
56
21. The graph of milk production based on simulation period .....................
58
22. The graph of revenue based on simulation period ..................................
59
23. The graph of forage production based on simulation period ..................
60
24. The graph of forage requirement based on simulation period ................
61
25. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 1 ................................
66
26. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 2 ................................
68
27. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 3 ................................
71
28. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 1,2 and 3
(a. population, b. dairy cattle population, c. milk production,
d. The revenue, e. forage production, f. forage requirement) ..................
73
29. Land use map of Lembang 2009 .............................................................
75
30. Potential ecology map for forage suitability ...........................................
78
31. The governor orientation map .................................................................
80
32. The actual ecology suitability map for forage.........................................
80
LIST OF APPENDICES
1. Equation model forage sustainability for dairy farming in lembang
Sub District,West Java .............................................................................
91
2. The calculation of ICPRC .......................................................................
94
3. Validation data of forage production ......................................................
95
4. The Amount of Dairy Cattle Population ...............................................
95
5. Validation data of using MAPE ..............................................................
95
6. The elevation, rainfall and the effectiveness depth soil map
and land use map of lembang 2005 ........................................................
96
7. Respondent profile (dairy farmers) .........................................................
98
8. The structure of dairy farming ................................................................
100
9. The authorization of foraging area (renting land forage Farmers) ..........
104
10. The authorization of foraging area (Sharing land area farmers with
Perhutani)...............................................................................................
104
11. The authorization of foraging area(Owned land for forage farmers) .....
105
12. The authorization of foraging area(The non land-forage farmers) .........
106
1
I. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
The main purpose of livestock productions is to provide humanity with
products such as meat, eggs and milk. Milk consumption increases every year due
to increasing awareness of the public health. According to data from Directorate
General of Livestock Services (Ditjenak) the consumption of milk in Indonesia in
2011 was about 1.76 million ton. It perhaps increases continuesely in coming
years.
Increase of milk consumption does not match to national milk production.
The current population of dairy cattle in 2010 was about 597 thousand heads,
which still very low to produce sufficient milk for fulfilling market demand. The
increase rate of national milk production from 2010 to 2011 was just 9,94%. This
unfavorable circumstance causes dependency on milk import, which reaches 3060% of total required milk (Ditjenak 2010).
The amount of milk to be imported is influenced by various factors. The
first factor is related to the low productivity of dairy cattle. Sudono (2000) stated
that the milk production from dairy cattle in Indonesia was only 10-11 liters/day,
while in industrial countries such as America and Europe this reaches 20-40
liters/day. Most of the dairy farms in Indonesia are conventional. The dairy farms
are classified based on the size of the dairy population, consisting of industrial
scale (>100 heads), middle scale (30-100 heads), small scale (10-30 heads) and
traditional scale (1-9 heads). In Indonesia the highest amount of milk is
contributed by the traditional scale which reaches about 90% of the total milk
productions (Yusdja 2005).
The government enhances of milk production by means of improvement
the dairy cattle population and dairy farming management, which is the sole
source of milk production. This effort was also exerted to support the White
Revitalization’s program aimed at enhancing the quality of life and well-being of
the Indonesians. Refinement of the structure management system, strengthening
of the cooperative system and the improvement of the feed sector were carried out
to develop the dairy sector in Indonesia.
2
Dairy cattle are highly dependent on forage, which influences the milk
production and quality. It is important to secure the forage supply in order to
sustain the production of dairy cattle. Feed is consumed by dairy cattle to provide
in the requirements concerning maintenance and productivity. Feed can be divided
into concentrate and forage. Feed is the highest cost in dairy farming, reaching
70% of total cost production. Based on this calculation the sustainability of forage
availability is the main issue in this sector.
Forage sustainability should be observed by ecology, economy and social
aspects. It is avowed by Devandra (1994) that sustainability of animal production
is the result of applying or introducing strategies which do not strain natural
resources. The main problems of providing forage in Indonesia are as follow (1)
unpredictable production due to the weather, (2) the low quality of forage itself,
(3) higher land conversion, (4) limitation of land area for planting forage. Good
management systems will result in increasing forage consumption which will
eventually lead to increasing farmer’s income. This is due to the fact that the cost
per kg dry matter (DM) spent by farmers is lower compared to that of concentrate
(Johnson et al. 2008).
The sustainability of forage supply is needed in dairy farming. It is
assumed if a dairy cow requires 25 kg of fresh forage (moisture 87%) which
equals to 4 kg DM and the size of the population reaches 445.000 heads. Based
on this calculation then the amount of forage needed per day will be 11.125 ton
which adds up to 4.060.625 ton needed per year (Lestari 2006). This large
demand for forage forms a huge challenge for dairy farmers.
Java Island is the center of dairy cattle in Indonesia, due to the suitable
environmental conditions. West Java is one of the central provinces of dairy
cattle. Almost 50% of the total milk production in West Java is derived from dairy
farms situated in the sub-district Lembang (West Java). The problem in forage
supply is limitation of forage production area. It is noticed that West Java is the
most densely populated area which has 3.710.061,32 ha with a
population of
42,19 billion.
The model needs to be built on the system working of providing forage
sustainability in Lembang. This model is expected to describe how the system is
3
able to provide forage by considering ecological, economic, and social aspects.
The model is built using the dynamic model that showed the time function due to
the input changes for every variable observed. As Hartisari (2007) stated, a
dynamic model has the strength to predict the probability of a situation which
might occur in the future. System dynamics is a problem evaluation approach
based on the premise that the structure of a system, that is, the way essential
system components are connected, generates its behavior (Richardson and Pugh
1989). System dynamic also provides an alternative view point in order to clarify
the structure of the system, reveal the links with external environment, and
determine the way the organization on operates to reach the defined goal. This
analysis is essential for practical purposes. It supports the everyday work of
managers to determine (1) the cause-effect relationships between the types of
actives in the system , (2) ensuring its contacts with the external and internal
environments, (3) the application of certain approaches, methods and techniques
for management (Harizanova et al. 2009).
1.2 Objectives
The common objective of this research is to build a simulation model of
sustainable forage supply for dairy farming in Lembang. The specific objectives
of this research are:
1. To identify forage and dairy farming condition in Lembang and seek for related
factors of forage supply considering the ecology, economy and social aspect.
2. To simulate the model to estimate the supply of forage.
3. To formulate the policy of decision making from the model simulation built to
support management systems of dairy farms.
1.3 The Significance of Study
The main importance of this study is to provide a model that will be able
to describe forage sustainability in dairy farming. The specific importances of this
study are:
4
1. Developing the science and knowledge of modeling in sustainability of dairy
farming.
2. Gathering information on how the system provides forage sustainability.
3. Recommendation of policy and management systems for refinement of forage
sustainability.
1.4 Conceptual Framework
A system may be designed as a dynamic, complex, integrated whole,
consisting of self-regulating pattern of inter-dependant elements organized to
achieve the pre-determined or specified objectives. The system approach to
instruction signifies a process and a technique by means of which an instructional
system is developed, implemented, controlled, and evaluated or improved.
Sustainability of animal production should be supported by forage sustainability.
The dairy cow has a very high demand for forage. Costs related to feed make up
the largest part of the total production costs. The issue of forage supply is
complicated by the limited amount of arable land. This situation causes a lack of
forage which in turn leads to an increase of costs related to feed. Eventually, this
condition causes the farmers to sell their cattle. Consequently both the size of the
cattle population and the milk production decrease. A model which simulates the
supply of forage, taking into account the independent relationship between
ecology, economy and social aspects as the mainstay of the ideology of
sustainability, is urgently needed. The model that will be built is also expected to
aid in estimating and predicting forage sustainability. This model will also be
useful in creating forage management systems. The conceptual framework of this
research is illustrated in Figure 1.
5
Figure 1. Research framework
It can be seen from the figure 1, the research framework that showing how
to make a model simulation for forage sustainability by considering the ecology,
economy and social aspects.
6
7
II. LITERATURE RIVIEW
2.1 Feed Resources for Dairy Cattle
Feed defined as the foodstuff that is consumed by dairy cattle to fulfill the
metabolic requirement and its production. Feed contains the nutrients that can be
used for dairy cattle. Generally, feed can be eaten but not all components can be
digested (Tilman et al. 1993). Feed is also classified into the following categories
(1) Forages, (2) Concentrates (energy and protein feeds), (3) Minerals and
vitamins. In general, forage is the vegetative parts of grasses or legume plants
containing a high proportion of fiber (more than 30%) neutral detergent fiber.
They are required in the diet in a coarse physical form (particles with a length of
more than 2.5cm) to help rumen function. Usually, forages are grown on the farm.
They may be grazed directly or harvested and preserved as hay or silage,
depending on the cow's stage of lactation. They contribute from almost 100% (for
non lactating cows) or no less than 35% (for cows in early lactation) of the ration
dry matter.
Concentrate may be described by their characteristics as feeds and their
effect on rumen function. Usually, concentrates have the following characteristics:
(a) they are low in fiber and high in energy, (b) they can be either low or high in
protein, cereal grains contain 50% crude protein, (c)
They have a high palatability and are usually eaten rapidly. As opposed to forage,
concentrates are feed that usually have a low volume per unit of weight (high
specific gravity) and they do not stimulate rumination, (d) they usually ferment
faster than forages in the rumen and they increase the acidity (reduce the pH) of
ruminal contents which may impede normal fiber fermentation, (e) when they
comprise more than 60 to 70% of a ration, they may cause health problems.
Minerals and vitamins are of great importance in nutrition. For example,
milk fever in early lactation is due to an imbalance in calcium metabolism, and
phosphorus is essential for high herd fertility. Deficiencies may result in large
economic losses. In lactating dairy cows, the macro-minerals of concern are
sodium chloride (NaCl), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and sometimes potassium
(K), magnesium (Mg) and sulfur (S). Also, most micro minerals (e.g., iodine,
8
selenium) are required to achieve optimal production and reproduction. The small
amount of microminerals usually required in a dairy ration is often included as a
premix in the concentrates or as fortified salt (Wattiaux 2006).
2.2 Conceptual Framework for Forage Aviability
2.2.1 The Definition of Forage for Dairy Farming
Forage is defined as the feed that come from the plant formed grass,
legume, and others plant that come from forage groups. Forage can be given as
fresh material or as fed. Dairy cattle have a highly dependent on forage. A good
management feeding system to improve forage consumption will raise farmer
income (Chapman et al. 2007).
The general characteristics of forage are: (1) Bulky ; Bulkiness puts limits
on how much a dairy cattle can eat. The energy intake and the milk production of
a cow may be limited by too much forage in a ration. However, bulky feeds are
essential to stimulate rumination and maintain the health of the dairy cattle. (2)
High Fiber and Low Energy: Forage may contain from 30 to 90% fiber (neutral
detergent fiber). In general, the higher fiber in a forage, the lower energy content
of the forage (3) Variable in Protein ; Depending on the stage of maturity,
legumes may contain 15 to 23% crude protein; grasses typically contain 8 to 18%
crude protein (depending on the level of nitrogen fertilization), and crop residues
may have only 3 to 4% crude protein (straw). Throughout a nutritional standpoint,
forages may range from very good feeds (lush young grass, legumes at a
vegetative stage of maturity) to very poor feeds (straw, browse).
There is positive correlation both the good feeding management and milk
production. It is showed that dairy cattle which given forage more than 31
kg/cow/day result no more than 5 litter’s milk. Further if the dairy cattle is given
the forage for 38 kg every day subsequently it will be more than 15 litter milk
resulted a day. This research showed us how important forage for dairy cow.
Forage contains almost all nutrients that needed for metabolic and production
function of dairy cattle. Forage nutrients also influenced by the seasons and
weather. During the rainy season, it will result a higher nutrient components rather
than in dry seasons. On this point it is detected that the positive correlation both
9
the rainfall and crude protein and negative correlation both rainfall and crude fiber
on forage.
The dry matter material depends on the varieties of the forage, solar
radiation intensity, the soil humidity and the management. The water availability
related to the effectiveness of rainfall and also intensity of solar radiation
(Williamson and Payne 1993). Naturally, dairy cattle can give only single feed for
basal metabolism, but it will influence the milk resulted. This situation occurs
because the imbalancing nutrient components from the feed given. Folley (1987)
stated that the imbalance of nutrienst will reduce the milk production and the
lactose, but the fat level will increase.
2.2.2 Forage Productivity
The quality of forage is highly dependent on the genetic and environment
factors. Genetic factors give the forage its characteristics, for instance the
gramineae family requires more nitrogen abundance from the soil by sucking
soluble nitrate or ammonia in water in contrast leguminous family adds nitrogen.
These characters are genetically conferred. Environmental factors also take
important part in determining forage quality. Genetic changes can be influenced
by environmental conditions such as soil condition, climate and management. As
a result influencing forage characteristics and quality.
Forage production level is a dependant on the following variables
photosynthetic process, decreasing assimilation by respiration and dry matter
translocation to forage. The enhancement of forage production is directly
proportional with photosynthesis process. In general, Panning de Vries and van
laar (1982) dividing the growth and plant production based on dry matter
production
(a) First stage production, the growth of plant occurs on nutrient and the
availability of water in soil. Vegetative growth is depending on the climate
condition and dry matter production related on solar radiation. The main
factor on this stage is the forming of dry matter. Core process in
assimilation of CO2, maintaining of plant, assimilate distribution and
spreading of leaf area second stage, the growth is highly depend on water
10
availability. If there’s enough water then the growth will be just depend on
climate. The main process on this stage is transpiration.
(b) Second stage, production stage, the growth will be depending on nitrogen
factor in soil. The situation occurs on marginal land under lack fertilizer.
The main process of this stage is nitrogen transformation.
(c) The last stage, the growth is depends on phosphor availability or
microelement. The circumstance is happened on land that is less of
mineral, so the main process is mineral transformation in organic or an
organic form.
Forage production is also influenced by the season, land use and
topography. In paddy field, it’s usually dominated by natural grass or introduction
grass, while, on moor dominated by shrubs or trees. The impact of forage
production occurs during rainy season. Plantation management-spacing, has big
part to forage production. It’s related with the growth condition due to lighting.
The reason of the sentence above explained by Simth and Whiteman (1983) who
stated that the decreasing of intensity of lighting influenced by photosynthesis,
transpiration,
respiration,
nitrate
reduction,
protein
synthesis,
hormonal
production, translocation, aging, and mineral absorption.
Climate also influences forage’s quality. In humid tropics, erosion
frequently related with mineral deficiencies in plants. On the other hand, less
drainages causing mineral extraction- micro minerals ie : Mn and Co, and lead
into high concentrate in plant tissues. High pH decreases Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn and Co
that can be used by plant; otherwise we will know that Mo and Se highly increase.
In light of this, we know that leguminous contains more mineral than germinea.
2.2.3 The Importance of Forage Supply
Forage is the most important component in the diet of dairy cattle because
of the dramatic impact on the dry matter and nutrient consumptions. The quality
and form of forage effect the dry matter consumptions and milk production in
dairy cattle. Forage plays critical roles in the dairy cattle because they are the most
economicaly source of nutrients. Forage is very important for sustainability of
dairy farming enterprises. The ideology of sustainability revolves on the balancing
11
of ecological, economic and social. Devandra (1994) stated that the sustainability
on animal livestock enterprises needed to be developed without harming the
natural resources. The supply of forage highly dependent on (1) climate factorstemperate, humidity, and annual rainfall, (2) soil fertility, (3) forage varietas, (4)
management, (5) environmental adaptation. The supply of tropical forage forced
many problems. The problem occurs when the nutrient soil is lack however the
production can not be optimized. The other is the changes of stages that will
influence the growth and its productivity.
Forage supply is also dependence on the carrying capacity. Since the
carrying capacity was known as a model to describe how to manage the animal
based on the environmental source on existing animal unit (AU) (Soemarwoto
1997). The improving of carrying capacity can be done by (1) applied the
appropriate technology (2) refinement the biological elements (3) arrangement on
physical sectors (4) improvement the social and economic sectors (5)
extensification (6) food diversification (7) best breed chosen animal or seeds for
plant (8) fertilizer for forages (9) utilization the agricultural by products (10)
prevention of pest.
The carrying capacity is calculated by the supply of forage productivity.
On this model is used Animal Unit or AU. It is commonly used to calculate the
amount of pasture space and animal feed. The model illustrated the weight of
animal with the forage consumed. The conversion of Animal Unit for the dairy
cattle ; Cow/bull ages >2 year equal to 1,00 AU, Heifers ages 1-2 year equal to
0.50 AU and Calf ages
SUPPLY FOR DAIRY FARMING IN LEMBANG SUB
DISTRICT WEST JAVA
WINDI AL ZAHRA
GRADUATE SCHOOL
BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
BOGOR
2012
STATEMENT
I, Windi Al Zahra, herby stated that this thesis entitled:
Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for Dairy Farming in
Lembang Sub District West Java
Is a result on my own work under the supervisor advisory board during the
period October 2011- April 2012 and that it has not been published before. The
content of the thesis has been examined by the advising advisory board and
external examiner.
Bogor, May 2012
Windi Al Zahra
P052100161
ABSTRACT
WINDI AL ZAHRA. Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for
Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub District West Java. Under the supervision of
ASEP SAEFUDDIN and LUKI ABDULLAH
Forage supply is the core issue in dairy farming productivity in
Indonesia. The restricted forage supply is mainly due to the limited farming
land owened by the farmers. This research was carried out to formulate the
simulation model of forage supply sustainability for daory farming in Lembang
Sub district, West Java. Method of this research was collecting data from (1)
desk study, (2) survey,(3) interview with the stakeholder, (4) FGD (Focuse
Group Discussion). The model was built by using the system approach; need
assessment, problem formulation, system identification (causal loop and inputoutput diagram) and model formulation. The model simulation software
program used in this study was Powersim Studio 2005. There were four
submodels built; population submodel, dairy cattle population submodel,
economic submodel, and forage availability submodel. Based on the dynamic
simulation, it was obtained the amount of population as 207.025 ppl in the end
of year simulation (20 years), 15.392 AU for dairy cattle population,
48.722.025 litter for milk production, Rp. 157.372.140.750,00 for the revenue
from milk yield, 40.484,52 ton for forage production and 165.492,73 ton for
forage requirement. Policy analysis was exceeding from the model built.
Sensitivity’s test was the real form of intervention from model structures. It
showed how sensitive the model as the changes of output and it showed what
the effect resulted. Model validation was done by statistical method; MAPE
(Mean Percentage Error). The spatial analysis was done to determine the
ecological suitability for forage management.
Keywords: model simulation, dairy cattle, forage sustainability
ABSTRAK
WINDI AL ZAHRA. Model Simulasi Penyediaan Hijauan Makanan Ternak
(HMT) yang Berkelanjutan bagi Usaha Ternak Sapi Perah di Lembang, Jawa
Barat. Dibimbing oleh ASEP SAEFUDDIN dan LUKI ABDULLAH
Ketersediaan bahan pakan merupakan isu penting dalam usaha
peternakan sapi perah. Sapi perah mempunyai ketergantungan yang tinggi
terhadap ketersediaan Hijauan Makanan Ternak (HMT) , hal ini terkait dengan
produksi susu yang akan dihasilkan nantinya. Permasalahan menjadi semakin
kompleks ketika keterbatasan lahan dalam penyediaan HMT. Penelitian ini
dilakukan untuk memformulasikan model penyediaan HMT secara
berkelanjutan bagi usaha ternak sapi perah di Lembang, Jawa Barat. Metode
yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini diantaranya adalah (1) desk study, (2)
survey,(3) wawancara dengan stakeholder, (4) FGD (Focuse Group
Discussion). Model yang dibangun dengan menggunakan pendekatan sistem
(system approach) yang dimulai dengan melakukan analisis kebutuhan,
formulasi masalah, identifikasi sistem (causal loop dan diagram input-output)
dan formulasi model. Simulasi model dengan menggunakan analisis sistem
dengan menggunakan Powersim Studio 2005. Empat submodel dibangun
dalam penelitian ini yaitu (1) submodel populasi, (2)submodel populasi sapi
perah, (3) submodel ekonomi, (4) dan submodel ketersediaan HMT.
Berdasarkan hasil analisis sistem dinamis didapatkan jumlah populasi sebesar
207.025 jiwa di akhir tahun simulasi (20 tahun), populasi ternak perah sebesar
15.392 AU produksi susu mencapai 48.722.025 litter, pendapatan dari hasil
produksi susu Rp. 157.372.140.75.00, produksi HMT sebesar 40.484,52 ton
dan kebutuhan HMT bagi sapi perah sebesar 165.492,73 ton. Skenario analisis
sistem dinamis dilakukan dengan melakukan intervensi untuk mengetahui
sensitivitas dari variable dalam model. Validasi model dilakukan dengan
menggunakan analisis statistic; MAPE (Mean Percentage Error). Analisis
spasial dilakukan untuk menentukan kesesuian ekologis bagi manajemen
HMT.
Kata Kunci: model simulasi, sapi perah, ketersediaan HMT.
SUMMARY
WINDI AL ZAHRA. Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for
Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub District West Java. Under the supervision of
ASEP SAEFUDDIN and LUKI ABDULLAH
Dairy cattle have a highly dependence on forage for its daily diet that
will influence the milk production. It is assumed that an adequate amount of
forage will lead automatically to the higher milk production. Thus, it is very
important in securing forage supply in order for sustainability of dairy farming.
Forage sustainability should be observed by ecology, economy and social
aspects. A model is needed on how the system works in providing forage in
Lembang. It built by using a dynamic model that showed the time function due
to the input changes for every variable observed. The broad objective of this
research was building a simulation model of forage sustainability for dairy
farming in Lembang. The specific aims of this research were (1) to identify
forage and dairy farming condition in Lembang and seek for related factors of
forage availability considering the ecology, economy and social aspect (2) to
simulate the model that be built to estimate the availability of forage (3) to
formulate the policy of decision making from the model simulation built to
support management systems of dairy farms. This research was done in
Lembang Sub-district, west java province. The research spent for 4 months,
since November 2011- February 2012. The method used to collect information
as follows: 1) Desk study from the previous information and research, 2)
survey to collect the quantitative and qualitative data, 3) interview, 4) Focus
Group Discussion (FGD) with the stakeholder. The respondents (the dairy
farmers) were divided into four groups, they are the owned land for forage
farmers (FOL), the renting land forage farmers (FRA), the sharing land area
farmers with Perhutani (FSL) and the non land-forage farmers (FNL). The
model was built by using the system approach; need assessment, problem
formulation, system identification and model formulation. The model
simulation was used Powersim Studio 2005. Validation was done by
quantitative behavior pattern comparison. The model of forage sustainability
for dairy farm was validated by using MAPE test (mean absolute percentage
error). MAPE refers to diminished number between the actual and the simulate
data. The policy analysis was considering the carrying capacity in Lembang.
The method for counting carrying capacity is using ICPRC (Increasing
Capacity Population of Ruminant Cattle). The spatial analysis of ecology
suitability for forage in Lembang was done by considering suitability of forage
management to determine the pathway of policy analysis. The ecological
suitability was made from the criteria of land suitability that have been
appointed.
There was four submodels built; population submodel, dairy cattle
population submodel, economic submodel, and forage availability submodel. It
was found the stakeholders on this research; Dairy farmers, KPSBU, Animal
Livestock Services and Perhutani. Based on the dynamic simulation, it
obtained the amount of population was only 143.669 ppl in 2006 and changed
dramatically into 207.025 ppl in 2025. The dairy cattle population was 12.433
AU in 2006 to 15.392 AU in the end of simulation year. The milk production
was 37.870.575 litter in 2006 and it is predicting will be 48.722.025 litter in
2025. The revenue was Rp. 122.321.957.250 in the early simulation and it is
going to increase rapidly for Rp. 157.372.140.750 in the end of simulation
year. Forage production was 45.097.11 ton and it will be calculated increasing
smoothly for 40.484,52 ton in 2025. Forage requirement was predicted
132.698,75 ton and it will change for 165.492,73 ton in 2025. Policy analysis
accessed from the model built. Sensitivity’s test was the real form of
intervention from model structures. It will show how sensitive the model is as
the changes of output and it will also show how the effect resulted. There were
three scenario used; Scenario 1 was focused on the increment of population
(3%) and dairy cattle population (5%). Scenario 2 was focused on the
increment of population (5%) and dairy cattle population (7%), the extension
of plantation area for forage and while milk price was constant.
Scenario 3
was focused on the increment of population (10%), and dairy cattle population
(10%), the improving of management and the increment of milk price. The
ecological suitability was the primary requirements for forage management in
Lembang. The ecological suitability was done by classified some criteria in
order to get optimum forage production. The ecological suitability carried out
for the land evaluation. The result of overlapping has been resulted the
potential ecology suitability for forage management. Land suitability was
physically divided into 4 classes; highly suitable (S1) for 1.150,71 Ha,
moderate suitable (S2) for 4.390,07 Ha, marginally suitable (S3) for 881,06
Ha, not suitable (N) for 1.115,17 Ha and it was found constrain (C) for
2.211,22 Ha that became the restriction point for forage management. The GIS
analysis deals with the actual suitability for forage management. It was done by
combined The Governor Direction Map into a single layer. Land suitability
was physically divided into 4 classes; highly suitable (S1) for 1.055,31Ha,
moderate suitable (S2) for 4.377,98 Ha, marginally suitable (S3) for 1.108,97
Ha, not suitable (N) for 1.105,1 Ha and it was found constrain (C) for 2.100,26
Ha
Keywords: model simulation, dairy cattle, forage sustainability
Copyright @2012, Bogor Agricultural University
Copyright are protected by law
1. It is prohibited to cite all part of this thesis without referencing to and
mention the source :
a. Citation only permitted for the sake education, research, scientific
writing, report writing, critical writing or reviewing scientific
problems
b. Citation does not inflict the name and honor of Bogor Agricultural
University
2. It is prohibited to republish and reproduce all part of this thesis without
written permission from Bogor Agricultural University
SIMULATION MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE FORAGE
SUPPLY FOR DAIRY FARMING IN LEMBANG SUB
DISTRICT WEST JAVA
WINDI AL ZAHRA
P052100161
A thesis submitted for the Degree Programs of Master of Science in
Natural Resources and Environmental Management
GRADUATE SCHOOL
BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
2012
External examiner: Dr. Ir. Hartisari, DEA
Research Title
: Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply
for Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub-district, West Java
Name
Student ID
: Windi Al Zahra
: P052100161
Study Program
: Natural Resources and Environmental Management
Approved by,
Advisory Board
Dr. Ir. Asep Saefuddin,
M.Sc
Dr. Ir. Luki Abdullah M.Sc
Supervisior
Co Supervisor
Endorsed by,
Program Coordinator
Dean of Graduate School
Prof. Dr. Ir. Cecep Kusmana, M.Sc
Dr. Ir. Dahrul Syah, M.Sc.Agr
Date of Examination
:
: May 16th 2012
Date of graduation
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Allah SWT the Al
Mighty for the mercy, favor, bless me to carry out this task entitled
“Simulation Modelling to Analyze Forage Sustainability for Dairy Farming in
Lembang
Sub-District, West Java” with sound health and
mind. This thesis submitted for the Degree Programs of Master of Science in
Natural Resources and Environmental Management
I wish to express my earnest thanks and sincere appreciation to Dr. Ir.
Asep Saefuddin, M.Sc and Dr. Ir. Luki Abdullah who acted respectively as my
respected Chairman and Member of Advisory Committee. I deeply appreciate
them for their constant guidance and support during the work. Without their
guidance, the result of my work would have been less than desirable. I am also
especially grateful to all staff of Study Program in Natural Resources and
Environmental Management for helped me during I studied.
I am very grateful to those who have helped me throughout this
research The North Cooperative Dairy Cattle (KPSBU), The Animal Livestock
and Services West Bandung District, BPN, Central Bureau of Statistic (BPS)
for providing me data on this research. The special appreciation is given to Mr.
Hermawan Prasetya, S.T.M.T, the doctoral student, who helped me during the
discussion about the dynamic system analysis. Mr. Syaidina Ali and his wife
for the time during discussed about SIG. My profound gratitude goes to my
friends in PSL 2010. I relay grateful to appreciate for the advice, assistance and
camaraderie and best wishes to you all.
Finally, I would like to thank to my parents Mr. Nana Mahdi and Mrs.
Wiwi Mulyawati, my sister, Sindi Fathonah Halimah and my fiancée,
Mustahgfirin for making all of this possible through their continued support,
pray and love. They have always been here to set me on the right path and for
that I am eternally grateful. They are the reason that I have been able to
succeed.
うもありが ございます-
Bogor, May 2012
Windi Al Zahra
CURRICULUM VITAE
Windi Al Zahra was born in Bogor, West Java on 14th February 1989.
She is the first daughter of Mr. Nana Mahdi and Mrs. Wiwi Mulyawati. She
finished her elementary school in SD Al-Ghazali Bogor, the Junior high school
finished in SMP 9 Bogor, and finished her Senior high school in SMU 9 Bogor.
She accepted in Bogor Agricultural University in Faculty of Animal Science,
Department of Animal Science and Technology Production in 2006 and
officially she received her bachelor degree in 2010. In 2010 she pursued her
master degree at Natural Resources and Environmental Management Program.
During study, she often joined international seminar and workshop. She joined
International Basic Science International Conference (BASIC) in Malang, East
Java Province. She also joined Winter Course in Ibaraki University in Japan.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Table ..................................................................................................
Page
xv
List of Figure .................................................................................................
xvi
I. INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................
1
1.1 Background ......................................................................................
1
1.2 Objectives .........................................................................................
3
1.3 The Significance of Study .................................................................
3
1.4 Conceptual Framework .....................................................................
4
II. LITERATURE RIVEW ...........................................................................
6
2.1 Feed Resources for Dairy Cattle .......................................................
7
2.2 Conceptual Framework for Forage Aviability ..................................
8
2.2.1 The Definition of Forage for Dairy Farming .................................
8
2.2.2 Forage Productivity ..................................................................
9
2.2.3 The Importance of Forage Supply ...........................................
10
2.3 Dairy Cattle Enterprises in Indonesia ...............................................
12
2.4 The Dynamic System Approach .......................................................
13
2.4.1 The Understanding of Dynamic System ........................................
13
2.4.2 Model Formulation ..................................................................
15
2.4.3 Model Simulation by Using Dynamic System .........................
17
2.4.4 Verification and Validation on Dynamic System ....................
18
2.5 Geographic Information Systems (GIS)............................................
20
III. METHODOLOGY..................................................................................
23
3.1 Location and Time ............................................................................
23
3.2 Materials............................................................................................
23
3.3 Methods .............................................................................................
24
3.4 Technique for Collecting Data and Data Used .................................
24
3.5 Data Analysis ....................................................................................
25
3.5.1 How the Model is built for Forage Sustainability ..............
25
3.5.1.1 Need Assessment ........................................................
26
3.5.1.2 Problems Formulation ............................................
26
3.5.1.3 System Identification .............................................
27
3.5.1.4 Model Formulation ...................................................
28
3.6 Verification and Validation .........................................................
32
3.7 Policy Analysis due to the Forage Sustainability on Dairy
Farming .......................................................................................
32
3.8 The spatial Analysis of Ecology Suitability for Forage
Management ...............................................................................
34
IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION ...............................................................
37
4.1 General Condition of the Study Area ..............................................
37
4.1.1 Demography ..........................................................................
37
4.1.2 Climate ..................................................................................
38
4.1.3 Topography ...........................................................................
38
4.2 The Model of Forage Sustainability in Lembang Sub district ....
39
4.2.1 Stakeholder Identification.................................................
39
4.2.1.1 Dairy Farmers ....................................................
39
4.2.1.2 The North Dairy Coop .......................................
40
4.2.1.3 Animal Livestock Services of West
Bandung District ................................................
42
4.2.1.4 Perum Perhutani ...............................................
42
4.2.2 Need Assessment ..............................................................
43
4.2.3 Problem Analysis ..............................................................
45
4.2.4 System Identification ........................................................
46
4.2.5 Model Formulation ...........................................................
47
4.2.5.1 Population Submodel .........................................
48
4.2.5.2 Dairy Cattle Population Submodel ....................
49
4.2.5.3 The Economic Submodel...................................
50
4.2.5.4 The Forgae Availability Submodel....................
51
4.3 The Analysis of Model Behavior ................................................
54
4.4 Verification and Validation Model .............................................
63
4.5 The Policy Analysis due to The Model of Forage
Sustainability ................................................................................
65
4.6. The Spatial Analysis of Ecology Suitability for
Forage Management ...............................................................................
74
CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATION ...............................................
81
REFERENCES..............................................................................................
83
APPENDICES ..............................................................................................
89
LIST OF TABLE
1. Data type and sources .............................................................................
25
2. General criteria of ecological suitability for forage
(Pennisetum Purpureum SCHUM) ..........................................................
34
3. Demography data of Lembang Sub-district ............................................
37
4. The climate information in Lembang Sub-district ..................................
38
5. Elevation level in Lembang Sub-district .................................................
39
6. The amount of respondents based on land availability for foraging .......
39
7. The amount of respondent area for foraging ...........................................
40
8. Dairy cattle population, milk production, and members of KPSBU
Since 2000-2010 .......................................................................................
41
9. Population of dairy cattle in West Bandung District area .......................
42
10. Need assessment analysis........................................................................
45
11. The amount of population based on simulation period ...........................
54
12. The amount of dairy cattle population based on simulation period ........
55
13. The amount of milk production based on simulation period ..................
57
14. The amount of revenue based on simulation period ...............................
58
15. The amount of forage production based on simulation period ...............
60
16. The amount of forage requirement based on simulation period .............
61
17. The population, dairy cattle population, milk production, revenue,
forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period.....................................................................................
63
18. The amount of population, dairy cattle population, milk production,
revenue, forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period (scenario 1).................................................................
67
19. The amount of population, dairy cattle population, milk production,
revenue, forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period (scenario 2).................................................................
69
20. The amount of population, dairy cattle population, milk production,
revenue, forage production and forage requirement based on
simulation period (scenario 3).................................................................
72
21. The land use classification in Lembang on 2009 ....................................
76
22. The calculation of potential ecology area for forage suitability .............
76
23. The potential area for ecology sustainability for forage (villages) .........
77
24. The calculation of actual ecology area for forage suitability ..................
78
25. The actual area for ecology sustainability for forage (villages) ..............
79
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Research framework................................................................................
5
2. Location of study area .............................................................................
23
3. The step on how the model is built by using system approach ...............
26
4. Input-output diagram...............................................................................
27
5. Flow diagram by using Powersim Studio 2005 ......................................
29
6. Symbol of level .......................................................................................
30
7. Symbol of rate .........................................................................................
31
8. Symbol of auxiliary .................................................................................
31
9. Symbol of constanta ................................................................................
31
10. Symbol of source and sink ......................................................................
31
11. Symbol of link .........................................................................................
32
12. Chart of GIS applications on ecology land suitability
for forage management ............................................................................
35
13. Input-output diagram...............................................................................
46
14. Flow diagram of population in Lembang ................................................
48
15. Flow diagram of the dairy cattle population ...........................................
49
16. Flow diagram of economic submodel in Lembang .................................
50
17. Flow diagram of forage availability ........................................................
52
18. The model of forage sustainability for dairy farming in Lembang .........
53
19. The graph of population based on simulation period ..............................
54
20. The graph of dairy cattle population based on simulation period ...........
56
21. The graph of milk production based on simulation period .....................
58
22. The graph of revenue based on simulation period ..................................
59
23. The graph of forage production based on simulation period ..................
60
24. The graph of forage requirement based on simulation period ................
61
25. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 1 ................................
66
26. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 2 ................................
68
27. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 3 ................................
71
28. The graph of simulation result by using scenario 1,2 and 3
(a. population, b. dairy cattle population, c. milk production,
d. The revenue, e. forage production, f. forage requirement) ..................
73
29. Land use map of Lembang 2009 .............................................................
75
30. Potential ecology map for forage suitability ...........................................
78
31. The governor orientation map .................................................................
80
32. The actual ecology suitability map for forage.........................................
80
LIST OF APPENDICES
1. Equation model forage sustainability for dairy farming in lembang
Sub District,West Java .............................................................................
91
2. The calculation of ICPRC .......................................................................
94
3. Validation data of forage production ......................................................
95
4. The Amount of Dairy Cattle Population ...............................................
95
5. Validation data of using MAPE ..............................................................
95
6. The elevation, rainfall and the effectiveness depth soil map
and land use map of lembang 2005 ........................................................
96
7. Respondent profile (dairy farmers) .........................................................
98
8. The structure of dairy farming ................................................................
100
9. The authorization of foraging area (renting land forage Farmers) ..........
104
10. The authorization of foraging area (Sharing land area farmers with
Perhutani)...............................................................................................
104
11. The authorization of foraging area(Owned land for forage farmers) .....
105
12. The authorization of foraging area(The non land-forage farmers) .........
106
1
I. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
The main purpose of livestock productions is to provide humanity with
products such as meat, eggs and milk. Milk consumption increases every year due
to increasing awareness of the public health. According to data from Directorate
General of Livestock Services (Ditjenak) the consumption of milk in Indonesia in
2011 was about 1.76 million ton. It perhaps increases continuesely in coming
years.
Increase of milk consumption does not match to national milk production.
The current population of dairy cattle in 2010 was about 597 thousand heads,
which still very low to produce sufficient milk for fulfilling market demand. The
increase rate of national milk production from 2010 to 2011 was just 9,94%. This
unfavorable circumstance causes dependency on milk import, which reaches 3060% of total required milk (Ditjenak 2010).
The amount of milk to be imported is influenced by various factors. The
first factor is related to the low productivity of dairy cattle. Sudono (2000) stated
that the milk production from dairy cattle in Indonesia was only 10-11 liters/day,
while in industrial countries such as America and Europe this reaches 20-40
liters/day. Most of the dairy farms in Indonesia are conventional. The dairy farms
are classified based on the size of the dairy population, consisting of industrial
scale (>100 heads), middle scale (30-100 heads), small scale (10-30 heads) and
traditional scale (1-9 heads). In Indonesia the highest amount of milk is
contributed by the traditional scale which reaches about 90% of the total milk
productions (Yusdja 2005).
The government enhances of milk production by means of improvement
the dairy cattle population and dairy farming management, which is the sole
source of milk production. This effort was also exerted to support the White
Revitalization’s program aimed at enhancing the quality of life and well-being of
the Indonesians. Refinement of the structure management system, strengthening
of the cooperative system and the improvement of the feed sector were carried out
to develop the dairy sector in Indonesia.
2
Dairy cattle are highly dependent on forage, which influences the milk
production and quality. It is important to secure the forage supply in order to
sustain the production of dairy cattle. Feed is consumed by dairy cattle to provide
in the requirements concerning maintenance and productivity. Feed can be divided
into concentrate and forage. Feed is the highest cost in dairy farming, reaching
70% of total cost production. Based on this calculation the sustainability of forage
availability is the main issue in this sector.
Forage sustainability should be observed by ecology, economy and social
aspects. It is avowed by Devandra (1994) that sustainability of animal production
is the result of applying or introducing strategies which do not strain natural
resources. The main problems of providing forage in Indonesia are as follow (1)
unpredictable production due to the weather, (2) the low quality of forage itself,
(3) higher land conversion, (4) limitation of land area for planting forage. Good
management systems will result in increasing forage consumption which will
eventually lead to increasing farmer’s income. This is due to the fact that the cost
per kg dry matter (DM) spent by farmers is lower compared to that of concentrate
(Johnson et al. 2008).
The sustainability of forage supply is needed in dairy farming. It is
assumed if a dairy cow requires 25 kg of fresh forage (moisture 87%) which
equals to 4 kg DM and the size of the population reaches 445.000 heads. Based
on this calculation then the amount of forage needed per day will be 11.125 ton
which adds up to 4.060.625 ton needed per year (Lestari 2006). This large
demand for forage forms a huge challenge for dairy farmers.
Java Island is the center of dairy cattle in Indonesia, due to the suitable
environmental conditions. West Java is one of the central provinces of dairy
cattle. Almost 50% of the total milk production in West Java is derived from dairy
farms situated in the sub-district Lembang (West Java). The problem in forage
supply is limitation of forage production area. It is noticed that West Java is the
most densely populated area which has 3.710.061,32 ha with a
population of
42,19 billion.
The model needs to be built on the system working of providing forage
sustainability in Lembang. This model is expected to describe how the system is
3
able to provide forage by considering ecological, economic, and social aspects.
The model is built using the dynamic model that showed the time function due to
the input changes for every variable observed. As Hartisari (2007) stated, a
dynamic model has the strength to predict the probability of a situation which
might occur in the future. System dynamics is a problem evaluation approach
based on the premise that the structure of a system, that is, the way essential
system components are connected, generates its behavior (Richardson and Pugh
1989). System dynamic also provides an alternative view point in order to clarify
the structure of the system, reveal the links with external environment, and
determine the way the organization on operates to reach the defined goal. This
analysis is essential for practical purposes. It supports the everyday work of
managers to determine (1) the cause-effect relationships between the types of
actives in the system , (2) ensuring its contacts with the external and internal
environments, (3) the application of certain approaches, methods and techniques
for management (Harizanova et al. 2009).
1.2 Objectives
The common objective of this research is to build a simulation model of
sustainable forage supply for dairy farming in Lembang. The specific objectives
of this research are:
1. To identify forage and dairy farming condition in Lembang and seek for related
factors of forage supply considering the ecology, economy and social aspect.
2. To simulate the model to estimate the supply of forage.
3. To formulate the policy of decision making from the model simulation built to
support management systems of dairy farms.
1.3 The Significance of Study
The main importance of this study is to provide a model that will be able
to describe forage sustainability in dairy farming. The specific importances of this
study are:
4
1. Developing the science and knowledge of modeling in sustainability of dairy
farming.
2. Gathering information on how the system provides forage sustainability.
3. Recommendation of policy and management systems for refinement of forage
sustainability.
1.4 Conceptual Framework
A system may be designed as a dynamic, complex, integrated whole,
consisting of self-regulating pattern of inter-dependant elements organized to
achieve the pre-determined or specified objectives. The system approach to
instruction signifies a process and a technique by means of which an instructional
system is developed, implemented, controlled, and evaluated or improved.
Sustainability of animal production should be supported by forage sustainability.
The dairy cow has a very high demand for forage. Costs related to feed make up
the largest part of the total production costs. The issue of forage supply is
complicated by the limited amount of arable land. This situation causes a lack of
forage which in turn leads to an increase of costs related to feed. Eventually, this
condition causes the farmers to sell their cattle. Consequently both the size of the
cattle population and the milk production decrease. A model which simulates the
supply of forage, taking into account the independent relationship between
ecology, economy and social aspects as the mainstay of the ideology of
sustainability, is urgently needed. The model that will be built is also expected to
aid in estimating and predicting forage sustainability. This model will also be
useful in creating forage management systems. The conceptual framework of this
research is illustrated in Figure 1.
5
Figure 1. Research framework
It can be seen from the figure 1, the research framework that showing how
to make a model simulation for forage sustainability by considering the ecology,
economy and social aspects.
6
7
II. LITERATURE RIVIEW
2.1 Feed Resources for Dairy Cattle
Feed defined as the foodstuff that is consumed by dairy cattle to fulfill the
metabolic requirement and its production. Feed contains the nutrients that can be
used for dairy cattle. Generally, feed can be eaten but not all components can be
digested (Tilman et al. 1993). Feed is also classified into the following categories
(1) Forages, (2) Concentrates (energy and protein feeds), (3) Minerals and
vitamins. In general, forage is the vegetative parts of grasses or legume plants
containing a high proportion of fiber (more than 30%) neutral detergent fiber.
They are required in the diet in a coarse physical form (particles with a length of
more than 2.5cm) to help rumen function. Usually, forages are grown on the farm.
They may be grazed directly or harvested and preserved as hay or silage,
depending on the cow's stage of lactation. They contribute from almost 100% (for
non lactating cows) or no less than 35% (for cows in early lactation) of the ration
dry matter.
Concentrate may be described by their characteristics as feeds and their
effect on rumen function. Usually, concentrates have the following characteristics:
(a) they are low in fiber and high in energy, (b) they can be either low or high in
protein, cereal grains contain 50% crude protein, (c)
They have a high palatability and are usually eaten rapidly. As opposed to forage,
concentrates are feed that usually have a low volume per unit of weight (high
specific gravity) and they do not stimulate rumination, (d) they usually ferment
faster than forages in the rumen and they increase the acidity (reduce the pH) of
ruminal contents which may impede normal fiber fermentation, (e) when they
comprise more than 60 to 70% of a ration, they may cause health problems.
Minerals and vitamins are of great importance in nutrition. For example,
milk fever in early lactation is due to an imbalance in calcium metabolism, and
phosphorus is essential for high herd fertility. Deficiencies may result in large
economic losses. In lactating dairy cows, the macro-minerals of concern are
sodium chloride (NaCl), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and sometimes potassium
(K), magnesium (Mg) and sulfur (S). Also, most micro minerals (e.g., iodine,
8
selenium) are required to achieve optimal production and reproduction. The small
amount of microminerals usually required in a dairy ration is often included as a
premix in the concentrates or as fortified salt (Wattiaux 2006).
2.2 Conceptual Framework for Forage Aviability
2.2.1 The Definition of Forage for Dairy Farming
Forage is defined as the feed that come from the plant formed grass,
legume, and others plant that come from forage groups. Forage can be given as
fresh material or as fed. Dairy cattle have a highly dependent on forage. A good
management feeding system to improve forage consumption will raise farmer
income (Chapman et al. 2007).
The general characteristics of forage are: (1) Bulky ; Bulkiness puts limits
on how much a dairy cattle can eat. The energy intake and the milk production of
a cow may be limited by too much forage in a ration. However, bulky feeds are
essential to stimulate rumination and maintain the health of the dairy cattle. (2)
High Fiber and Low Energy: Forage may contain from 30 to 90% fiber (neutral
detergent fiber). In general, the higher fiber in a forage, the lower energy content
of the forage (3) Variable in Protein ; Depending on the stage of maturity,
legumes may contain 15 to 23% crude protein; grasses typically contain 8 to 18%
crude protein (depending on the level of nitrogen fertilization), and crop residues
may have only 3 to 4% crude protein (straw). Throughout a nutritional standpoint,
forages may range from very good feeds (lush young grass, legumes at a
vegetative stage of maturity) to very poor feeds (straw, browse).
There is positive correlation both the good feeding management and milk
production. It is showed that dairy cattle which given forage more than 31
kg/cow/day result no more than 5 litter’s milk. Further if the dairy cattle is given
the forage for 38 kg every day subsequently it will be more than 15 litter milk
resulted a day. This research showed us how important forage for dairy cow.
Forage contains almost all nutrients that needed for metabolic and production
function of dairy cattle. Forage nutrients also influenced by the seasons and
weather. During the rainy season, it will result a higher nutrient components rather
than in dry seasons. On this point it is detected that the positive correlation both
9
the rainfall and crude protein and negative correlation both rainfall and crude fiber
on forage.
The dry matter material depends on the varieties of the forage, solar
radiation intensity, the soil humidity and the management. The water availability
related to the effectiveness of rainfall and also intensity of solar radiation
(Williamson and Payne 1993). Naturally, dairy cattle can give only single feed for
basal metabolism, but it will influence the milk resulted. This situation occurs
because the imbalancing nutrient components from the feed given. Folley (1987)
stated that the imbalance of nutrienst will reduce the milk production and the
lactose, but the fat level will increase.
2.2.2 Forage Productivity
The quality of forage is highly dependent on the genetic and environment
factors. Genetic factors give the forage its characteristics, for instance the
gramineae family requires more nitrogen abundance from the soil by sucking
soluble nitrate or ammonia in water in contrast leguminous family adds nitrogen.
These characters are genetically conferred. Environmental factors also take
important part in determining forage quality. Genetic changes can be influenced
by environmental conditions such as soil condition, climate and management. As
a result influencing forage characteristics and quality.
Forage production level is a dependant on the following variables
photosynthetic process, decreasing assimilation by respiration and dry matter
translocation to forage. The enhancement of forage production is directly
proportional with photosynthesis process. In general, Panning de Vries and van
laar (1982) dividing the growth and plant production based on dry matter
production
(a) First stage production, the growth of plant occurs on nutrient and the
availability of water in soil. Vegetative growth is depending on the climate
condition and dry matter production related on solar radiation. The main
factor on this stage is the forming of dry matter. Core process in
assimilation of CO2, maintaining of plant, assimilate distribution and
spreading of leaf area second stage, the growth is highly depend on water
10
availability. If there’s enough water then the growth will be just depend on
climate. The main process on this stage is transpiration.
(b) Second stage, production stage, the growth will be depending on nitrogen
factor in soil. The situation occurs on marginal land under lack fertilizer.
The main process of this stage is nitrogen transformation.
(c) The last stage, the growth is depends on phosphor availability or
microelement. The circumstance is happened on land that is less of
mineral, so the main process is mineral transformation in organic or an
organic form.
Forage production is also influenced by the season, land use and
topography. In paddy field, it’s usually dominated by natural grass or introduction
grass, while, on moor dominated by shrubs or trees. The impact of forage
production occurs during rainy season. Plantation management-spacing, has big
part to forage production. It’s related with the growth condition due to lighting.
The reason of the sentence above explained by Simth and Whiteman (1983) who
stated that the decreasing of intensity of lighting influenced by photosynthesis,
transpiration,
respiration,
nitrate
reduction,
protein
synthesis,
hormonal
production, translocation, aging, and mineral absorption.
Climate also influences forage’s quality. In humid tropics, erosion
frequently related with mineral deficiencies in plants. On the other hand, less
drainages causing mineral extraction- micro minerals ie : Mn and Co, and lead
into high concentrate in plant tissues. High pH decreases Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn and Co
that can be used by plant; otherwise we will know that Mo and Se highly increase.
In light of this, we know that leguminous contains more mineral than germinea.
2.2.3 The Importance of Forage Supply
Forage is the most important component in the diet of dairy cattle because
of the dramatic impact on the dry matter and nutrient consumptions. The quality
and form of forage effect the dry matter consumptions and milk production in
dairy cattle. Forage plays critical roles in the dairy cattle because they are the most
economicaly source of nutrients. Forage is very important for sustainability of
dairy farming enterprises. The ideology of sustainability revolves on the balancing
11
of ecological, economic and social. Devandra (1994) stated that the sustainability
on animal livestock enterprises needed to be developed without harming the
natural resources. The supply of forage highly dependent on (1) climate factorstemperate, humidity, and annual rainfall, (2) soil fertility, (3) forage varietas, (4)
management, (5) environmental adaptation. The supply of tropical forage forced
many problems. The problem occurs when the nutrient soil is lack however the
production can not be optimized. The other is the changes of stages that will
influence the growth and its productivity.
Forage supply is also dependence on the carrying capacity. Since the
carrying capacity was known as a model to describe how to manage the animal
based on the environmental source on existing animal unit (AU) (Soemarwoto
1997). The improving of carrying capacity can be done by (1) applied the
appropriate technology (2) refinement the biological elements (3) arrangement on
physical sectors (4) improvement the social and economic sectors (5)
extensification (6) food diversification (7) best breed chosen animal or seeds for
plant (8) fertilizer for forages (9) utilization the agricultural by products (10)
prevention of pest.
The carrying capacity is calculated by the supply of forage productivity.
On this model is used Animal Unit or AU. It is commonly used to calculate the
amount of pasture space and animal feed. The model illustrated the weight of
animal with the forage consumed. The conversion of Animal Unit for the dairy
cattle ; Cow/bull ages >2 year equal to 1,00 AU, Heifers ages 1-2 year equal to
0.50 AU and Calf ages