ProdukHukum BankIndonesia
Novem
mber 2009
kang
INDO
ONES
SIA’S
S
BALA
ANCE OF PAY
YMEN
NTS
REPO
ORT
THIRD QUARTER 2009
2
1
Contact Address:
Balance of Payments Bureau
Directorate of Economic and Monetary Statistics
Bank Indonesia
th
Sjafruddin Prawiranegara Tower, 16 Floor
Jl. M.H. Thamrin No. 2
Jakarta 10350
Phone
: (021) 3817088
Fax
: (021) 3800134
E-mail
: BNP@bi.go.id
Website
: www.bi.go.id
2
November 2009
INDONESIA’S
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2009
3
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
1
LIST OF CONTENTS
RINGKASAN
……………………………………………………………
1
SUMMARY
……………………………………………………………
1
INDONESIA’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN Q3/2009
AND ITS CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
……………………………………………………………
3
……………………………………………………………
7
CURRENT ACCOUNT
1.
2.
Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
1.1.
Non-Oil and Gas Exports
……………………………………………………………
8
1.2.
Non-Oil and Gas Imports
……………………………………………………………
11
Oil and Gas Trade Balance
……………………………………………………………
12
2.1.
2.2.
……………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………
13
14
Oil
Gas
3.
Services Account
……………………………………………………………
15
4.
Income Account
……………………………………………………………
16
5.
Current Transfers
……………………………………………………………
17
CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
1.
Capital Account
……………………………………………………………
19
2.
Financial Account
……………………………………………………………
20
2.1.
Public Sector
……………………………………………………………
20
2.2.
Private Sector
……………………………………………………………
24
RESERVE ASSETS
……………………………………………………………
29
INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY
……………………………………………………………
31
……………………………………………………………
33
BOX :
Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) Allocation for
Indonesia in Q3/2009
2
LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 1
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments and Several
Page
Table 12
5
Table 2
Import Value of Raw Materials Based on Country
12
of Origin (C&F)
Economic Indicators in Q3/2009
Growth of Non-Oil and Gas Exports by Sector
Table 13
8
Import Value of Consumption Goods Based on
12
Country of Origin (C&F)
Table 3
Growth of Major Export Commodities
Table 14
8
Import Value of Capital Goods Based on Country
12
of Origin (C&F)
Table 4
Non-Oil and Gas Exports to Major Countries of
9
Table 15
Oil Exports and Imports
13
Destination
Table 5
Copper Exports To Several Countries of Destination
9
Table 16
Demand and Supply of World Oil
13
Table 6
Coal Exports to Major Countries of Destination
9
Table 17
Indonesian Gas Reserves (billion cubic feet)
14
Table 7
CPO Exports to Major Countries of Destination
10
Table 18
Exports of LNG, LPG and Natural Gas
15
Table 8
Electronic Exports to Major Countries of Destination
10
Table 19
Non-Investment Grant
17
Table 9
Export of Chemical Products to Major Countries of
11
Table 20
Investment Grant
20
Table 21
Indicators of External Sustainability
31
Destination
Table 10
Non-Oil & Gas Imports Based on Types of Goods
11
Table 11
Non-Oil & Gas Import Based on Country of Origin
11
LIST OF CHARTS
Page
Page
Chart 1
Current Account
7
Chart 18
Disbursement and Repayment of Government
22
Loan
Chart 2
Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
8
Chart 19
Program Loan Disbursement
23
Chart 3
World Copper Price
9
Chart 20
Project Loan Disbursement
23
Chart 4
World Coal Price
10
Chart 21
Government Foreign Loan Position
23
Chart 5
World CPO Price
10
Chart 22
Loan Position by Major Creditor Countries
23
Chart 6
World Oil Price
14
Chart 23
Loan Position by Type of Major Currencies
24
Chart 7
Fuel Consumption
14
Chart 24
Financial Account of Private Sector
24
Chart 8
Services account
15
Chart 25
Foreign Direct Investment
25
Chart 9
Travel Services
16
Chart 26
Foreign Direct Investment Based on Country of
25
Chart 10
Income Account
16
Chart 27
Foreign Direct Investment based on Economic
Chart 11
Workers’ Remittances
17
Chart 28
Oil & Gas Foreign Direct Investment
25
Chart 12
Capital
19
Chart 29
Non-Oil & Gas Foreign Direct Investment
26
Chart 13
Capital and Financial Account by Sector
20
Chart 30
Foreign Transaction in IDX and the Composite
26
Chart 14
Financial Account of Public Sector
20
Chart 31
Foreign Transaction in Private Sector Debt
Chart 15
Indonesia’s Yield Global Bond and US T-Note
21
Chart 32
Loan Disbursement of Private Sector
27
Chart 16
BI Rate and Fed Fund Rate
21
Chart 33
Reserve Assets
29
Chart 17
SUN & SBI Owned by Foreign Investors
22
Origin
25
Sector
and
Financial
Account
by
Type
of
Investment
Index
27
Securities
3
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
In Q3/2009, the overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of USD3.5 billion, up from the USD1.1
billion surplus in Q2/2009. Positive contributions to this surplus came from both the current account as well as the
capital and financial account. In response, the international reserves position at end-Q3/2009 mounted to USD62.3
billion, a level equivalent to 6.1 months of imports and servicing of official external debt.
The current account posted a USD1.7 billion surplus in Q3/2009, lower than the Q2/2009 surplus of USD2.9
billion. The lower surplus is explained by reduced performance in the non-oil & gas trade balance and the oil trade
balance. Non-oil & gas exports forged ahead on the upward trend under way since the preceding quarter, bolstered
by strong demand in some Asian economies and rising international market prices for leading primary commodity
exports. However, the accelerated pace of domestic economic activity prompted a surge in non-oil & gas import
growth (16.3%, q.t.q) ahead of non-oil & gas exports (9.5%, q.t.q), resulting in a diminished non-oil & gas trade
balance surplus compared to one quarter earlier. Accelerated domestic economic activity and the seasonal factor of
the Eid-ul-Fitr festivities also led to increased consumption of oil-based fuels and imports of oil with a consequent
deficit in the oil trade balance. Nevertheless, the current account benefited from a heftier surplus in the gas trade
balance following commencement of production at the Tangguh gas field and increases in world oil prices.
Offsetting the reduced current account surplus was stronger performance in the capital and financial
account. During Q3/2009, the capital and financial account posted a USD3.0 billion surplus, after a USD2.2 billion
deficit in the preceding period. Key to this surplus was stronger performance in portfolio investment and other
investments. The steady improvement in domestic macroeconomic conditions combined with attractive interest rates
on rupiah-denominated instruments prompted higher portfolio capital inflows. In other investments, improved
outlook for the economy, easing of global liquidity conditions, and comparatively low international interest rates
have encouraged greater foreign borrowing by the private sector. Other investments also benefited from an
additional allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). This allocation is intended to bolster the international reserves
held by member countries in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including Indonesia, as part of the efforts to
resolve the global economic crisis.
1
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
2
INDONESIA’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN Q3/2009 AND ITS
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
The global economic recovery contributed to the improvement in Indonesia’s Balance of Payments
in Q3/2009 that recorded a USD 3.5 billion surplus, higher than a USD 1.1 billion surplus in Q2/2009. This
positive performance was contributed by current account surplus of USD1.7 billion and capital and
financial accounts surplus of USD3.0 billion. The current account surplus contracted compared to the
surplus of preceding quarter. This was primarily due to the descending surplus of non oil/gas trade
balance in line with domestic economic growth acceleration causing non oil/gas imports grew higher than
non oil/gas exports. The decreased in current account surplus also stemmed from the increased deficit of
oil trade balance, services and income account as well as the descending current transfers surplus. The
declining surplus of current account was halted by the increase in gas trade balance surplus. Meanwhile
the performance of capital and financial account improved due to, among others, the growing portfolio
investment inflow. Capital and financial account improvement was also driven by decrease in other
investment deficit due to decrease in government foreign debt repayment, additional SDR allocation by
the IMF, as well as increase in private sector foreign debt disbursement . Following to the above
development, the amount of foreign reserves at end of the period rose to USD 62.3 billion or equivalent
to 6.1 months of imports and official debt service payments.
The development of Indonesia’s Balance of Payment during Q3/2009 was contributed by several
fundamental factors, both stemming from domestic and foreign aspects, such as:
•
The global economy showed signs of recovery reflected from the economic growth of major trade
partners such as the US, Japan and the European Union that although still negative (y.o.y) but with a
declining tendency. In the meantime, several Asian countries such as China and India still posted
positive growth. Those countries continued their fiscal stimulus policy in the effort of economic
recovery acceleration. The improved economic performance of those trade partners positively
impacted Indonesian non oil/gas export performance.
•
The global demand recovery supported the increased price of several major non oil/gas export
commodities, especially primary commodities. The expectation of global economy recovery promoted
the increase in world oil price that in turn boosted the prices of several other energy commodities
such as gas and coal. The development in the world’s oil price caused the Indonesian crude export
price (average unit price) in Q3/2009 rose to USD 66.5/bl from USD 56.9/bl in previous quarter. The
fluctuation of USD exchange rate against other major currencies also affected world oil price
3
movement. In line with this increase, LNG price also rose from USD 6.3/MBTU in Q2/2009 to USD
8.2/MBTU during the reporting period.
•
In line with the global economy recovery, Indonesian economy in Q3/2009 grew by 4.2%, higher than
4.0% in the previous quarter. By sectors, transportation and communication gave the biggest
contribution to economic growth in Q3/2009 followed by mining, construction, finance and services.
From demand side, consumption still provided considerable support to economic growth. In addition
to the improved consumer’s income and the low inflation rate prospects, the high rate of private
consumption was presumed related to Eid ul-Fitr festivities taking place during the period. This
situation accelerated the import growth especially imports of non oil/gas.
• Inflation rate was 2.8% in Q3/2009, lower than 3.7% in the preceding quarter. This condition was in
line with domestic demand that although increased, but was still considered insufficiently strong. The
appreciation of rupiah during the reporting period contributed to the low inflation rate. In line with
this and in order to boost domestic economic growth, Bank Indonesia mitigated monetary policy by
lowering BI rate. Nevertheless, the spread of domestic and foreign interest rates was still wide enough
to maintain, even increase, the high appeal of foreign portfolio investor.
•
The strengthening world demand and the increasing gas production from Tangguh field gave a
positive impact to LNG export volume that rose to 243.7 MBTU, higher than 228.1 MBTU in the
preceding period. Oil production in Q3/2009 reached 0.943 barrel per day (bpd), slightly higher than
the previous period (0.941 bpd) but it was still below government target of 0.960 bpd for 2009.
Apart from natural decline due to old oil fields condition that have passed their optimal limits, several
technical problems were considered as contributing factors to oil production slow recovery. In the
meantime, in line with the increasing domestic economic growth and Eid ul-Fitr festivities, fuel
consumption in Q3/2009 reached 88.3 million barrels, higher than the preceding period (84.5 million
barrels) which then affected the increase of oil imports during the reporting period.
4
Table 1
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments and
Several Economic Indicators in Q3/2009
COMPONENTS
UNITS
2007
2008
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic Growth
‐ United States of America
‐ Japan
‐ European Union
‐ Singapore
‐ China
World Price Commodity
‐ Crude Oil (OPEC)
‐ Coal
‐ Copper
‐ CPO
‐ Rubber
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
2.1
2.3
2.8
7.8
13.0
2.0
1.3
2.2
6.7
10.6
1.6
0.6
1.5
2.5
10.1
0.0
‐0.3
‐0.4
0.0
9.0
‐1.9
‐4.3
‐1.8
‐4.2
6.8
‐3.3
‐8.6
‐2.5
‐9.5
6.1
‐3.8
‐7.0
‐0.2
‐3.3
7.1
‐2.3
‐4.5
0.4
0.6
7.7
USD/barel
USD/metric ton
USD/metric ton
USD/ton
cent USD/kg
69.1
66
7,118
780
248
92.5
114
7,796
1,156
293
117.5
139
8,443
1,198
312
113.8
163
7,680
928
329
53.1
93
3,905
512
203
42.9
72
3,428
577
166
58.7
66
4,663
743
187
67.6
71
5,859
679
221
International Interest Rates ¹⁾
‐ United States of America
‐ Japan
‐ European Union
‐ Singapore
‐ China
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
5.1
0.5
3.9
2.7
6.8
3.2
0.6
4.0
1.5
7.5
2.1
0.5
4.0
1.3
7.5
2.0
0.5
4.3
1.4
7.4
1.1
0.3
3.2
1.0
5.9
0.25
0.1
1.8
0.7
5.3
0.25
0.1
1.1
0.7
5.3
0.25
0.1
1.0
0.7
5.3
Inflation ²⁾
‐ United States of America
‐ Japan
‐ European Union
‐ Singapore
‐ China
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
4.1
0.7
3.1
4.4
6.5
4.0
1.2
3.6
6.7
8.3
5.0
2.0
4.0
7.5
7.1
4.9
2.1
3.6
6.7
4.6
0.1
0.4
1.6
4.3
1.2
‐0.4
‐0.3
0.6
1.6
‐1.2
‐1.4
‐1.8
‐0.1
‐0.5
‐1.7
‐1.3
‐2.2
‐0.3
‐0.4
‐0.9
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
(Rp/USD)
USD/barel
mbpd
mbpy
mbtu
USD/mbtu
% (annual)
6.3
6.6
9,136
70.1
0.952
382.8
1,080
9.0
8.6
6.2
7.1
9,260
93.4
0.977
95.4
284
11.5
8.0
6.4
11.0
9,264
119.3
0.981
99.0
253
12.8
8.3
6.4
12.1
9,219
113.4
0.982
100.8
259
14.3
9.0
5.2
11.1
11,023
48.0
0.967
86.3
272
8.8
9.4
4.4
7.9
11,630
41.8
0.962
80.7
257
5.5
8.25
4.0
3.7
10,532
56.9
0.941
84.5
228
6.3
7.25
4.2
2.8
10,002
66.5
0.943
88.3
244
8.2
6.58
million USD
million USD
million USD
million USD
million USD
million USD
10,493
3,591
14,085
‐1,370
12,715
56,920
2,742
‐529
2,213
‐1,180
1,032
58,987
‐1,013
2,105
1,094
231
1,324
59,453
‐966
2,370
1,404
‐1,493
‐89
57,108
‐637
‐5,822
‐6,459
2,246
‐4,212
51,639
2,722
1,886
4,608
‐653
3,955
54,840
2,907
‐2,230
677
375
1,052
57,576
1,739
2,996
4,735
‐1,189
3,546
62,287
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GDP
CPI Inflation ²⁾
Exchange Rates ¹⁾
Average Price of Crude Oil Export
Oil Production
Fuel Consumption
Gas Export (LNG)
Gas Export Average Price (LNG)
BI Rate 1)
INDONESIAN BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
Current Account
Capital and Financial Account
Total
Net Errors and Omissions
Overall Balance
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Source: CEIC, IMF, World Bank, Bank Indonesia, and other sources
¹⁾ an interest rate policy sets by central bank / monetary authority (calculated as the average monthly)
²⁾ end‐month position of the relevant quarter
5
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
6
CURRENT ACCOUNT
The current account in Q3/2009 recorded a USD
balance surplus was influenced by the rise in gas export
1.7 billion surplus, lower than USD 2.9 billion surplus in
price and volume pursuant to the production of
Q2/2009. This declining surplus was stemmed from the
Tangguh gas field and the hike of world oil price.
weakening performance of non-oil & gas and oil trade
The upturn in income balance deficit was due to
balances. Other current account components i.e.
the hike of dividend payments to foreign portfolio
services, income, and current transfers also recorded a
investors pursuant to the improving listing company
decreasing performance. However, the declining surplus
performance in the preceding year. Services balance
of current account was slightly offset by the increasing
deficit slightly increased from the previous quarter and
gas trade balance surplus.
was dominated by the increasing of transportation
expenses due to the strengthening of imported goods.
million USD
9,000
Meanwhile, the decreasing surplus of current transfer
7,000
balance was due to a slight inflow drop of workers’
5,000
remittance.
3,000
1,000
1. Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
-1,000
-3,000
In Q3/2009, non-oil & gas trade balance recorded a
-5,000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
2007
Services
Income
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
2008*
Trade Balance
Current Trans.
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
Current Account
Chart 1
Current Account
USD5.9 billion surplus, lower than a USD6.4 billion
surplus in Q2/2009. The decreased surplus was due to a
steeper increase of non-oil & gas import growth
(16.3%, q.t.q) than non-oil & gas exports (9.5%, q.t.q).
Domestic economy posted a positive growth of
Non oil & gas trade balance posted a surplus lower
than the preceding quarter in line with the acceleration
of domestic economic activities which boosted non oil &
gas imports to grow faster than non oil & gas export.
This acceleration accompanied by Eid-ul-Fitr seasonal
factors contributed to the hike of fuel consumption and
oil imports thus consequently generating deficit in oil
trade balance. In the meantime, the increased gas trade
4.2% (y.o.y) in Q3/2009, higher than the preceding
period (4.0%, y.o.y). Economic growth was mainly due
to private consumption that influenced the hike of nonoil & gas import. The annual growth of non-oil & gas
imports improved from -27.0% (y.o.y) in Q2/2009 to 19.6% (y.o.y) in this period. The performance of non-oil
& gas exports also improved from -14.8% (y.o.y) to 9.6% (y.o.y).
7
million USD
38,000
million USD
8,000
33,000
7,000
28,000
6,000
23,000
5,000
18,000
4,000
13,000
3,000
8,000
2,000
1,000
3,000
Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3
2007
Export
2008*
Import
2009*
Trade Balance (RHS)
Chart 2
Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
1.1. Non-Oil and Gas Exports
Table 2
Growth of Non-Oil and Gas Exports by Sector
% Share
Agriculture
Value
Volume
Mining
Value
Volume
Manufacturing
Value
Volume
Total
Value
Volume
% Growth
(y.o.y)
Q2
Q3
Q3
11.3
2.3
11.5
2.3
13.7
17.3
11.6
23.9
-33.6
-18.2
-31.1
-0.3
25.0
82.5
28.8
84.8
15.0
45.3
26.4
26.1
6.9
0.2
16.1
38.6
62.9
15.2
58.9
12.9
18.8
15.8
2.7
4.5
-17.4
-8.4
-13.3
13.0
100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0
15.7
39.2
9.5
22.8
-14.8
-1.7
-9.6
33.5
The improving performance of non-oil & gas export
In Q3/2009, non-oil & gas export improved to
value was also reflected in the development of 10 major
USD26.0 billion compared to USD23.8 billion in the
commodities. In Q3/2009, almost all major commodities
preceding quarter.
of non-oil & gas exports, except machinery and
The strengthening performance of export value was
mechanic, recorded an increase compared to the
mainly related to mining products which increased by
previous
26.4% from the previous quarter. Exports of major
strengthening annual growth. They are among others,
mining commodities, such as coal and copper, increased
copper, coal, CPO, chemical and electronic products.
mainly in terms of volume in line with the increasing
Demand on the above mentioned commodities mainly
world demand, especially China. Meanwhile, exports of
came from Asian countries and partly from developed
agricultural and manufacturing products also posted a
countries
positive growth of 11.6% and 2.7%, respectively.
performance in those countries.
The improved export performance of the above
three sectors was also reflected on their annual growth.
quarter.
pursuant
the
negative
growth
of
31.1%
(y.o.y),
agricultural sector showed an improvement compared
to the previous year (-33.6%, y.o.y). Manufacturing
sector still recorded a negative growth of 13.3% (y.o.y)
but not as high as in the preceding quarter (-17.4%,
y.o.y).
to
commodities
the
posted
improving
% Growth (q.t.q)
Value
Volume
Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3
compared to 6.9% (y.o.y) in the preceding period.
Despite
Five
a
economic
Table 3
Growth of Major Export Commodities
Mining sector recorded a growth of 16.1% (y.o.y)
8
Q2
% Growth
(q.t.q)
Q2
Q3
Copper
Nickel
Coal
CPO
Electrical Appliances
Rubber
Chemical Product
Paper
Textile & Tex. Prod
Machinery & Mechanic
‐4.3
‐53.1
39.5
38.6
24.2
17.8
24.5
4.2
5.9
19.5
41.3
29.6
23.5
16.9
14.5
13.6
7.6
5.7
5.0
‐27.0
‐19.2
137.3
78.6
11.5
21.1
19.2
28.5
‐1.5
12.4
5.4
18.1
27.0
26.1
16.0
13.3
0.6
‐3.4
‐5.7
‐0.7
‐30.4
% Growth (y.o.y)
Value
Volume
Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3
7.0
‐79.4
42.1
‐29.1
8.2
‐56.3
‐16.4
‐27.7
‐11.6
‐13.1
108.1
‐79.7
49.7
21.9
15.9
‐56.4
‐15.2
‐28.9
‐13.2
‐46.9
57.0
‐23.3
7.8
17.4
‐1.6
‐15.7
‐42.6
1.0
‐0.9
‐22.5
193.7
136.7
48.4
90.0
4.8
‐16.1
‐5.9
‐16.8
‐4.5
‐57.0
Non-oil & gas exports to Japan recorded the
Compared to the same period in the previous year,
highest growth of 29.1% (share 13.3%) compared to
copper export performance recorded a positive growth
the preceding period, followed by export to European
by 108.1% (y.o.y), far higher than 7% (y.o.y) in the
Union (grew by 18.2%, share 14.3%) and the US (grew
preceding period.
by 10.6%, share 10.6%). On annual basis, however,
the non-oil & gas export performance to almost all
major
countries
of
destination
still
recorded
of 20.5% (share 8.7%).
Table 4
Non-Oil and Gas Exports
to Major Countries of Destination
(million USD)
Country
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
-1.9
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Japan
874
41.1
65.8
299.4
South Korea
243
11.4
19.9
256.2
36.7
Malaysia
210
9.9
72.6
Others
799
37.6
22.2
37.5
2,127
100.0
41.2
108.1
Total
Q3-2009
Country
Q3-2009
a
downturn, except to China which recorded an increase
Value
Table 5
Copper Exports to Several Countries of Destination
Coal
EU
3,727
14.3
18.2
Japan
3,454
13.3
29.1
-6.9
In Q3/2009 coal export value reached USD4.4
USA
2,756
10.6
10.6
-19.7
billion or grew by 23.5% from the preceding quarter.
China
2,276
8.7
-2.9
20.5
1,970
7.6
-11.4
-35.8
This growth was supported by the increase of export
Others
11,837
45.5
8.9
-8.2
volume by 26.1% (q.t.q). China’s dependency on coal
Total
26,020
100.0
9.5
-9.6
Singapore
in fulfilling this country’s demand of steam power was
still high. Besides China, the main destinations of coal
Copper
In Q3/2009 copper exports reached USD2.1 billion
export were Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan.
or grew by 41.3% from the preceding quarter. This
Coal export value also showed a growing trend
growth was contributed by both price and volume
compared to the same period in the previous year. In
factors. During this period copper price reached
Q3/2009, coal export grew by 49.7% (y.o.y), higher
USD5,859/Mton, higher than the preceding quarter
than 42.1% (y.o.y) in the preceding year.
Table 6
Coal Exports to Major Countries of Destination
(USD4,663/Mton). Copper export volume rose by
18.1% (q.t.q) in line with the growing demand,
Q3-2009
especially from Japan, South Korea and Malaysia.
Country
USD/MTon
9,000
8,000
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Japan
907
20.7
57.2
47.1
China
570
13.0
51.8
122.3
11.3
66.7
South Korea
565
12.9
7,000
Taiwan
542
12.4
9.9
17.3
6,000
India
529
12.1
-8.7
70.2
Others
2,333
53.3
12.0
36.4
Total
4,374
100.0
23.5
49.7
5,000
4,000
World economic recovery increased the demand on
3,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
2007
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008
Chart 3
World Copper Price
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
energy products including coal, which affected the hike
of its price to USD71.31/Mton, higher than the
preceding period (USD66.48/MTon). This rise was in line
9
with the growing oil price as coal was considered as an
than the previous quarter (USD743/MTon). According
alternative energy commodity.
to Association of Crude Palm Oil Producers (GAPKI), the
decrease of CPO price was due to the increasing supply
USD/MTon
180
from Malaysia and Indonesia. In line with CPO price
160
140
drop, the government decreased the export duty from
120
3% to 0% starting August 2009. This decision refers to
100
80
price development in Rotterdam market that reached
60
USD 674.84/MTon in August 2009, below the price
40
reference of USD750/MTon.
20
0
USD/MTon
Q1
Q2
Q3
2007
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1,400
1,200
2009
1,000
Chart 4
World Coal Price
800
600
CPO
400
In Q3/2009 CPO exports reached USD2.7 billion or
200
grew by 16.9% from the previous quarter. The
0
Q1
strengthening export value was in line with the increase
Q2
Q3
Q4
2007
of export volume by 16% (q.t.q). The cancellation of
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008
Q2
Q3
2009
Chart 5
World CPO Price
rise in import duty in India and the celebration of Idul
Fitri in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Middle East had
also affected CPO demand. The improving CPO export
Electronic
Export of electronic products reached USD2.9
performance was also reflected on its annual growth.
CPO exports in this period experienced a significant
growth by 21.9% (y.o.y) in contradiction with the
previous quarter (-29.1%, y.o.y).
Table 7
CPO Exports to Major Countries of Destination
Q3-2009
Country
India
EU
China
Others
Total
Value
% Growth % Growth
% Share
(million USD)
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
872
31.8
13.8
-2.9
549
20.0
78.2
81.2
414
15.1
-5.6
190.1
905
33.0
9.0
0.0
2,740
100.0
16.9
21.9
Despite a significant increase in export volume,
preceding quarter. This increase was mainly driven by
the export of digital camera and video player destinated
to European Union and East Asia. The major countries
of
electronic
export
destination
were
Singapore
(20.2%), European Union (18.5%) and the US (15.4%).
Table 8
Electronic Exports to Major Countries of Destination
Q3-2009
Country
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth % Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Singapore
579
20.2
9.9
-22.6
EU
531
18.5
18.3
69.6
USA
442
15.4
14.8
53.4
CPO export price experienced a decrease. The average
Others
1,317
45.9
13.8
-46.8
CPO price in Q3/2009 was USD679/MTon, slightly
Total
2,868
100.0
14.5
15.9
lower
10
billion in Q3/2009 or grew by 14.5% from the
The performance of electronic exports showed an
Table 10
Non-Oil & Gas Imports Based on Types of Goods
improvement compared to the previous year reflected
% Share
Q2
Q3
% Growth
(q.t.q)
Q2
Q3
Consumption Goods
Value
Volume
7.8
5.4
8.1
5.0
18.6
3.7
20.8
9.9
-37.5
-28.9
-34.5
-23.1
Raw Material
Value
Volume
64.4
90.4
64.7
91.0
15.6
42.7
16.7
18.8
-34.6
-19.9
-24.2
1.0
Capital Goods
Value
Volume
27.0
4.2
26.2
4.0
9.5
-5.6
13.1
13.1
7.2
-10.7
2.3
-5.4
Total
Value
Volume
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
14.0
37.0
16.3
18.1
-27.0
-20.1
-19.6
-0.8
by the annual growth of 15.9% (y.o.y) or higher than
8.2% (y.o.y) in the preceding period.
Chemical Products
Export of chemical products in Q3/2009 reached
USD 1.7 billion or grew by 7.6% compared to the
preceding quarter. This increase was mainly driven by
price factor while the volume recorded a decrease of
3.4% from the previous quarter. The main export
destinations were China, European Union and Malaysia.
% Growth
(y.o.y)
Q2
Q3
The improved export performance of chemical
Non-oil & gas imports in Q3/2009 reached USD20.1
products was also reflected in the annual growth of
negative 15.2% (y.o.y), better than the preceding
billion, higher than USD17.3 billion in the preceding
quarter. The imported goods were mainly from China,
period (-16.4%, y.o.y).
Singapore, Japan, European Union and the US.
Table 9
Exports of Chemical Products
to Major Countries of Destination
Table 11
Non-Oil & Gas Import Based on Country of Origin
Q3-2009
Q3-2009
Country
China
Value
(million USD)
248
% Share
% Growth % Growth
15.0
(q.t.q)
23.4
(y.o.y)
75.0
EU
183
11.0
10.9
-14.1
Malaysia
141
8.5
5.9
-26.7
Others
1,088
65.5
4.2
-22.9
Total
1,660
100.0
7.6
-15.2
1.2. Non-Oil & Gas Import
Country
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
China
3,748
17.1
20.5
Singapore
3,017
13.8
28.8
-6.2
Japan
2,570
11.7
14.1
-27.2
EU
2,187
10.0
-0.1
-22.6
USA
1,740
7.9
7.1
-22.4
Others
Total
-16.8
8,650
39.5
18.2
-20.9
21,912
100.0
16.3
-19.6
Import of Raw Materials
In Q3/2009 non-oil & gas import experienced a
In Q3/2009 import of raw materials reached
steeper increase by recording a growth of 16.3%
USD14.2 billion or grew by 16.7% compared to the
(q.t.q), higher than 14% (q.t.q) in Q2/2009. This
preceding period. Demand recovery of imported raw
growth was related to import of consumption goods,
material was also reflected from the annual growth.
raw material as well as capital goods.
11
Despite recording an ongoing minus rate (-24.2%),
Table 13
Import Value of Consumption Goods
Based on Country of Origin (C&F)
it was not as steep as in the previous quarter (-34.6%).
The growing demand on imported raw materials was in
Q3-2009
line with the condition of manufacturing sector which
Country
was estimated to recover after the global economic
crisis.
The highest growth of raw materials imports was
Value
% Share
(million USD)
% Growth % Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Thailand
386
21.7
48.2
-16.1
China
370
20.8
2.3
-58.3
Singapore
152
8.5
27.3
-8.0
from China (14.2%), followed by Singapore (12.4%)
Others
874
49.0
19.3
-27.6
and Japan (12.3%). Major raw materials import
Total
1,782
100.0
20.8
-34.5
commodities recorded positive growth include animal
feed, steel raw material and electrical equipment. The
Import of Capital Goods
Import of capital goods in Q3/2009 reached
growing demand of steel raw material was considered
USD5.8 billion or grew by 13.1% from the preceding
related to the rise in investment in property sector.
period. The annual growth of capital goods, however,
Table 12
Import Value of Raw Materials
Based on Country of Origin (C&F)
showed a downturn to 2.3% (y.o.y) from 7.2% (y.o.y)
in the previous quarter.
Q3-2009
Country
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
China
2,010
14.2
19.2
-18.9
Singapore
1,762
12.4
30.6
-27.4
-31.2
Japan
Others
Total
1738
12.3
14.3
8,661
61.1
14.2
-23.1
14,171
100.0
16.7
-24.2
Imports of capital goods were mainly from China
(share 23.2%), Singapore (18.7%) and Japan (12.3%).
Table 14
Import Value of Capital Goods
Based on Country of Origin (C&F)
Q3-2009
Country
Import of Consumption Goods
In Q3/2009 imports of consumption goods reached
USD1.8 billion or grew by 20.8% compared to the
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth % Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
China
1,332
23.2
28.0
20.9
Singapore
1,075
18.7
25.5
79.7
707
12.3
14.3
-20.3
preceding quarter. This increase was considered related
Others
2,636
45.8
2.5
-13.1
to Ramadhan and Eid ul-Fitr celebration reflecting hike
Total
5,750
100.0
13.1
2.3
in food, beverage and clothes consumption. This
development was in line with the consumption increase
on GDP in Q3/2009.
12
Value
Japan
2.
Oil & Gas Trade Balance
In Q3/2009, oil and gas trade balance still provided
The annual growth of consumption goods imports
a positive contribution to the development of overall
also increased to minus 34.5% (y.o.y) compared to
trade balance by posting a USD2.0 billion surplus or
minus 37.5% (y.o.y) in the preceding period.
relatively equal to the surplus recorded in Q2/2009
Imports of consumption goods were mainly from
(USD2.0 billion). Despite this equivalent surplus, the
Thailand (share 21.7%), China (20.8%) and Singapore
trade balance composition was different with higher
(8.5%).
gas surplus and oil deficit.
A growing surplus was recorded in gas trade
billion to USD2.2 billion. This exported was mainly to
balance driven by gas price development while LNG
Australia, Japan, China and Korea and the types of
export volume showed a climbing tendency. Meanwhile
crude oil exported included SLC, Duri, Senipah and
oil import was larger than oil export in response to
Belanak.
domestic demand acceleration related to Eid ul-Fitr
Oil imports in Q3/2009 recorded a significant
increase from USD2.3 billion to USD3.7 billion. Similar
seasonal factor.
to export trend, this raise was also partly driven by the
oil price movement. Oil import¹ price rose from
2.1. Oil
After recording a surplus of USD68 million in
Q2/2009, oil trade balance experienced a USD779
million deficit in Q3/2009 pursuant to oil import
increase. This trend was related among others to the
growth of fuel consumption before and during Eid ul-
Fitr period.
reporting period.
In terms of volume oil import
increased from 40.1 million barrel to 50.4 million barrel.
Imports of crude oil during Q3/2009 for refinery
intake were originated from the Middle East with ALC
(Arab Light Crude) oil type and followed by crude oil
from Brunei, Africa, China and Malaysia. These types of
Table 15
Oil Exports and Imports
crude oil were used for several refineries such as
Cilacap, Balikpapan and Balongan that are the principal
2009
Details
USD58.4/barrel to USD70.3/barrel in average during the
Q2
Value (mill.
USD)
Volume
(mbbl)
Exports
Crude Oil
Refinery Products
2,411
1,775
635
41.5
31.6
9.9
Imports
Crude Oil
Refinery Products
2,343
857
1,486
40.1
17.3
22.8
Q3
Price
Value (mill.
(USD/barel)
USD)
Volume
(mbbl)
Price
(USD/barel)
56.2
64.4
2,967
2,206
761
43.1
33.1
10.0
66.6
76.4
0.0
49.4
65.3
3,746
1,489
2,258
53.3
22.8
30.5
0.0
65.2
74.1
refineries providing for domestic fuel supply.
Table 16
Demand and Supply of World Oil
Details
2007
(in mbpd )
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Oil Demand
Northern America
China
Western Europe
Others
25.5
7.6
15.3
37.6
24.2
8.0
15.3
38.1
23.5
7.6
14.9
37.9
23.0
8.3
14.4
37.5
23.3
8.4
14.8
38.0
Total Oil Demand
86.0
85.6
83.9
83.2
84.5
preceding quarter. This mounting trend was mainly
Oil Supply
OPEC
Non OPEC
driven by oil price that recording a growth of 18%
Total Oil Supply
0.0
30.2
54.6
84.6
84.8
0.0
31.2
54.8
0.0
86.0
0.0
28.4
55.5
0.0
84.0
0.0
28.5
55.2
0.0
83.7
0.0
28.8
55.7
0.0
84.5
while a slight increase was also recorded (around 5%
Netto Demand ‐ Supply
‐1.2
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
Oil Trade Balance
68
‐779
Source: BPMigas & PT Pertamina (Processed)
Oil exports during the reporting period rose to
USD3.0 billion or grew by 23.1% compared to the
for crude oil and 1% for oil product) in terms of
volume.
Source: OPEC Oil Monthly Report ‐ October 2009
The movements of Indonesian oil prices were in
Refinery product exports experienced a slight
line with world oil price movement. OPEC and WTI
increase from 9.9 million barrel in Q2/2009 to 10.0
basket crude oil price showed an increase reaching
million barrel in the reporting period with a value
respectively USD67.17/barrel and USD69.34/barrel. The
amounting to USD761 million. This export was largely
expectation for global economic recovery in 2010 and
destinated to Asian countries such as Malaysia, Japan,
the weakening USD exchange rate contributed to the
Korea, Singapore and China. Crude oil export volume
hike in oil price. The oil price still experienced an
increased from 31.6 million barrel to 33.1 million barrel
increase despite the indication of oversupply in terms of
followed by the hike of export value from USD1.8
demand and supply (OPEC Monthly Report).
13
USD/barel
million Kilo litre
140
130
million Kilo litre
3.50
120
9.00
3.00
8.50
110
2.50
100
90
80
2.00
8.00
1.50
7.50
70
60
50
40
30
1.00
SLC
Indonesian Export Price
WTI
OPEC
7.00
0.50
6.50
0.00
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
2008
2007
Source: OPEC, Ditjen Migas
2008
Industry
Chart 6
World Oil Price
With reference to domestic supply the average
Household
Electricity
Trasportation (RHS)
Chart 7
Fuel Consumption
2.2. Gas
Indonesian oil production reached 0.943 million barrel
The growing trend of oil and gas price had driven
per day, slightly higher than the average production in
a positive contribution to gas trade balance in Q3/2009
the previous quarter (0.941 milion barrel per day). This
by recording a USD2.7 billion surplus from a USD1.9
production was however still below oil production
billion surplus in Q2/2009. This higher surplus was also
assumption defined in the 2009 APBN-P 2009 (0.960
related to the increasing LNG export volume.
million barrel per day). This condition was driven among
The exported LNG product in the reporting period
others by the production of Cepu field that had not
reached USD2.0 billion (244 mmbtu) or grew from
worked in accordance with the initial target as well as
USD1.4 billion (228 mmbtu) in Q2/2009. This growing
by the natural declining of old oil fields.
trend was in line with addition of oil production from
In terms of domestic demand, fuel consumption
Tangguh field. Indonesia has an extensive gas reserves
during the reporting period experienced an increase to
amounting to 170.1 TSCF (Trillion Standard Cubic Feet)
88.3 million barrel compared to 84.5 million barrel in
with the following composition: 112.5 TSCF of proven
the preceding period. Pertaining to user sectors, the
reserves and 57.7 TSCF of potential reserves. Gas
hike in fuel consumption was mainly reflected in
reserves was higher in 2008 compared to 2007.
industrial, electrical and transportation sectors while the
use in household sector showed a decrease. Despite
posting an increase compared to the preceding quarter,
the hike of fuel consumption was not steep and the
level was still below the previous year. This was driven
by the success of the conversion program to replace
Table 17
Indonesian Gas Reserves (billion cubic feet)
Year
Reserves
Proven
Potential
Total
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
91
91
97
94
106
87
98
89
93
59
113
58
178
188
186
187
165
170
household oil-based fuels with gas as well as the energy
Price factor also improved the export value of
conversion to coal in several power plants. This success
natural gas, compensating the decrease in its export
was reflected in oil consumption which declined to 88.9
volume. Export value of natural gas increased from
million barrel from 100.8 million barrel in the previous
USD565 million to USD759 million.
year.
14
2009
2009
Transportation services recorded a deficit of
Table 18
Exports of LNG, LPG and Natural Gas
Details
2007
2008*
USD2.4 bilion, higher than USD2.0 billion in the
2009*
Q2
Q1
preceding quarter. The hike in deficit among others
Q3
reflected the considerable dependency on foreign fleet
LNG
Volume (mmbtu)
Value (million USD)
Price(USD/mmbtu)
1,080 1,068 257 228 244
9,723 12,785 1,426 1,448 1,989
9.0 11.9 5.5 6.3 8.2
LPG
Volume (000 metric ton)
Value (million USD)
Price (USD/MTon)
337 101 ‐
210 79 ‐
604.7 394.9 ‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
in fulfilling transportation demand. In the effort of
lessening this dependency, the government emanated a
policy of cabotage principle that oblige the shipping of
commodities between domestic ports conducted by
national fleet. This policy had been implemented for
Natural Gas
Volume (mmbtu)
Value (million USD)
Price (USD/mmbtu)
293 303 78 77 76
2,443 3,469 441 565 759
8.3 11.3 5.7 7.4 10.0
Gas Trade Balance
Export (million USD)
Import million USD)
12,345
12,376
31
16,147
16,333
186
1,744
1,867
123
1,906
2,013
107
2,697
2,748
51
commodities such as palm oil and agricultural products
however the application was still very limited due to
difficulties in new fleet financing.
In
Q3/2009
travel
services
(tourism
sector)
recorded a USD223 million surplus, slightly lower than
Source: BPMigas
USD248 million in Q2/2009. This declining surplus was
3.
Services Account
due to the increase of foreign exchange expenses by
In line with the strengthening domestic economic
Indonesian travelers abroad from USD1,323 million to
activities that consequently affected the increase of
USD1,441
transportation expenses related to imported products,
international travelers in Indonesia from USD1,572
the deficit of services account in Q3/2009 rose to
million to USD1,664 million.
USD3.2
billion
compared
to
USD3.0
billion
million
exceeding
the
expenses
of
in
The economic recovery experienced by several
Q2/2009.The hike in economic activities had also
countries contributed to the increase of international
triggered increase in deficit of other services such as
tourists visiting Indonesia. The number of international
insurance and other financial intermediary services. The
tourists (inbound) in Q3/2009 reached 1,671 thousand
increase in services account deficit was also related to
people higher than 1,590 thousand people in Q2/2009.
the declining surplus of travel, communication and
This increase was also triggered by the organization of
government services.
several international tourism activities such as Darwin
Ambon Yacht Race 2009 in July 2009 involving
million USD
participants from UK, Australia and Germany and Sail
1000
500
Bunaken event organized early August 2009 in Manado
0
-500
gathering participants from 33 countries.
-1000
The statistic of international tourists was still
-1500
-2000
dominated by travelers coming from neighboring
-2500
-3000
countries. Tourists from Singapore were in the first rank
-3500
(share 13.9%) followed by Australia (10.8%), Malaysia
-4000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
(10.8%), Japan (9.01%) and China (6.9%). Only
2007
Transportation
2008*
Travel
Other services
Chart 8
Services account
2009*
Services, net
Australia out of 3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and
Australia) shows a consistent increase in the number of
tourists since Q1/2009.
15
Bali was still considered as the main tourist
increasing profit transfer to foreign companies dealing
destination representing 41.4% of the market share,
with oil & gas sector pursuant to the rise in oil & gas
followed by Jakarta (21.8%) and Batam (13.0%).
production. In contrast, the interest payment of
Australia (share 19.5%), Japan (14.0%) and China
government foreign debt decreased in the reporting
(8.3%) were countries with the largest number of
period according to its cyclical pattern.
tourists visiting Bali.
million USD
Thousand people
million USD
700
800
600
600
500
400
400
300
200
200
100
0
0
-100
-200
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
2007
2008
-200
2009
-400
-300
-400
-600
-500
-600
-800
Inbound (thousan people)
Outbound (thousand people)
Trav. Balance (thousand people)
Inflows (million USD) RHS
Trav. Balance (million USD) RHS
Outflows (million USD) RHS
Chart 9
Travel Services
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
-3,000
-3,500
-4,000
-4,500
-5,000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
2007
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
2008*
Income, net
PI Income
Inv. Income
OI Income
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
DI Income
Chart 10
Income Account
Income from portfolio investment recorded a
On the other hand, the number of Indonesian
USD1.4 billion deficit, higher than USD0.7 billion in the
people going abroad also grew to 1,495 thousand
preceding quarter. The increase of this deficit was
people in Q3/2009 from 1,373 thousand people in the
mainly triggered by the rise in dividend payment on
preceding quarter. This growth was followed by the
shares owned by foreign investors to USD1.0 billion
increase of foreign exchange expenses related to this
from USD0.5 billion. This condition was consistent with
trip from USD1.3 billion to USD1.4 billion.
the increase of foreign ownership of domestic shares in
Neighboring ASEAN countries still remained the
the preceding periods.
main destination of Indonesian travelers such as
The deficit in direct investment income also
Singapore (share 43.9%), Malaysia (25.4%) and
mounted to USD2.2 billion from USD2.1 billion in
Thailand (3.9%). Australia (5.5%) and the US (4.3%)
Q2/2009. This growing deficit was related to the
were the main destination of Indonesian tourists outside
increased profit transfer reported by oil & gas
ASEAN countries.
companies from USD0.8 billion to USD1.3 billion in the
reporting period.
4.
Income Account
In Q3/2009 the income account recorded a
Q3/2009 decreased to USD0.3 billion from USD0.9
USD4.1 billion deficit, higher than USD3.7 billion deficit
billion in Q2/2009. This contraction was related to the
in Q2/2009. This increase was mainly related to the
decrease in foreign debt repayments by the government
growing dividend payment to foreign investor portfolio.
from USD0.7 billion to USD0.2 billion.
The growth of deficit was also contributed by the
16
On the other hand, deficit in other investment in
5.
Other component contributing the surplus of
Current Transfers
a
current transfer was the revenue related to non-
USD1,176 million surplus, slightly lower than USD1,200
investment grant in the form of food, clothes,
million in the previous quarter. The decreased inflows of
medicines and medical equipment. In Q3/2009 this
remittances from Indonesian labor abroad and the
revenue reached USD40 million, higher than USD32
increased outflows of remittances by foreign labor had
million in Q2/2009.
caused this declining surplus. The revenue from
quarter was among other from Dutch Government in
remittances
posted
the form of hospital medical equipment that officially
USD1,603 million, slightly lower than USD1,652 million
accepted by the Indonesian Ambassador for the
in the previous period. On the other hand, outflows
Netherland on August 24, 2009. UNICEF had also
from remittance of foreigners working in Indonesia
provided aid in the form of tents for earthquake victims
reached USD440 million, slightly higher than USD432
in Tasikmalaya, West Java.
In
Q3/2009
of
the
current
Indonesian
transfer
workers
posted
was
The grants received during this
Table 19
Non-Investment Grant
million in Q2/2009.
(million USD)
million USD
2008*
Non Investment Grants
2000
2009*
Q.1.
Q.2.
Q.3.
Q.4.
Q.1.
Q.2.
Q.3.
Total
86
41
62
145
73
32
40
Public (Govt.)
17
27
38
128
4
15
20
Private (NGO)
69
14
24
17
69
17
20
(Current Transfer)
1500
1000
500
0
Source : Ministry of Finance & United Nation
-500
-1000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
2007
TKI Inflow
Q.3
Q.4
2008*
TKA Outflow
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
worker remittance, net
Chart 11
Workers’ Remittances
17
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
18
CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
In Q3/2009 capital and financial account posted a
million USD
6,000
USD3.0 billion surplus, better than a USD 2.2 billion
4,000
deficit in the previous quarter. This surplus was
2,000
contributed by the improving performance of portfolio
0
investment and other investment. The strengthening
-2,000
domestic macroeconomic conditions, supported by a
relatively attractive rupiah interest rate, had triggered
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
the inflows of portfolio investment. In the meantime,
Q.1
additional SDR allocation by IMF, and the growing
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
2007
other investment deficit declined due to the decrease of
scheduled foreign debt repayments by the government,
Q.2
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
2008*
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
Direct Investment
Portfolio Investment
Other Investment
Financial Account
Chart 12
Capital and Financial Account by Type of Investment
foreign loan disbursement by private sector. The
strengthening
economic
prospect,
relaxing
global
1.
Capital Account
liquidity as well as relatively low overseas interest rate
The capital account in Q3/2009 recorded a USD34
had contributed to growing private sector foreign
million surplus, higher than a surplus of USD29 million
financin
mber 2009
kang
INDO
ONES
SIA’S
S
BALA
ANCE OF PAY
YMEN
NTS
REPO
ORT
THIRD QUARTER 2009
2
1
Contact Address:
Balance of Payments Bureau
Directorate of Economic and Monetary Statistics
Bank Indonesia
th
Sjafruddin Prawiranegara Tower, 16 Floor
Jl. M.H. Thamrin No. 2
Jakarta 10350
Phone
: (021) 3817088
Fax
: (021) 3800134
: BNP@bi.go.id
Website
: www.bi.go.id
2
November 2009
INDONESIA’S
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
REPORT
THIRD QUARTER 2009
3
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
1
LIST OF CONTENTS
RINGKASAN
……………………………………………………………
1
SUMMARY
……………………………………………………………
1
INDONESIA’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN Q3/2009
AND ITS CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
……………………………………………………………
3
……………………………………………………………
7
CURRENT ACCOUNT
1.
2.
Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
1.1.
Non-Oil and Gas Exports
……………………………………………………………
8
1.2.
Non-Oil and Gas Imports
……………………………………………………………
11
Oil and Gas Trade Balance
……………………………………………………………
12
2.1.
2.2.
……………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………
13
14
Oil
Gas
3.
Services Account
……………………………………………………………
15
4.
Income Account
……………………………………………………………
16
5.
Current Transfers
……………………………………………………………
17
CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
1.
Capital Account
……………………………………………………………
19
2.
Financial Account
……………………………………………………………
20
2.1.
Public Sector
……………………………………………………………
20
2.2.
Private Sector
……………………………………………………………
24
RESERVE ASSETS
……………………………………………………………
29
INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY
……………………………………………………………
31
……………………………………………………………
33
BOX :
Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) Allocation for
Indonesia in Q3/2009
2
LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 1
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments and Several
Page
Table 12
5
Table 2
Import Value of Raw Materials Based on Country
12
of Origin (C&F)
Economic Indicators in Q3/2009
Growth of Non-Oil and Gas Exports by Sector
Table 13
8
Import Value of Consumption Goods Based on
12
Country of Origin (C&F)
Table 3
Growth of Major Export Commodities
Table 14
8
Import Value of Capital Goods Based on Country
12
of Origin (C&F)
Table 4
Non-Oil and Gas Exports to Major Countries of
9
Table 15
Oil Exports and Imports
13
Destination
Table 5
Copper Exports To Several Countries of Destination
9
Table 16
Demand and Supply of World Oil
13
Table 6
Coal Exports to Major Countries of Destination
9
Table 17
Indonesian Gas Reserves (billion cubic feet)
14
Table 7
CPO Exports to Major Countries of Destination
10
Table 18
Exports of LNG, LPG and Natural Gas
15
Table 8
Electronic Exports to Major Countries of Destination
10
Table 19
Non-Investment Grant
17
Table 9
Export of Chemical Products to Major Countries of
11
Table 20
Investment Grant
20
Table 21
Indicators of External Sustainability
31
Destination
Table 10
Non-Oil & Gas Imports Based on Types of Goods
11
Table 11
Non-Oil & Gas Import Based on Country of Origin
11
LIST OF CHARTS
Page
Page
Chart 1
Current Account
7
Chart 18
Disbursement and Repayment of Government
22
Loan
Chart 2
Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
8
Chart 19
Program Loan Disbursement
23
Chart 3
World Copper Price
9
Chart 20
Project Loan Disbursement
23
Chart 4
World Coal Price
10
Chart 21
Government Foreign Loan Position
23
Chart 5
World CPO Price
10
Chart 22
Loan Position by Major Creditor Countries
23
Chart 6
World Oil Price
14
Chart 23
Loan Position by Type of Major Currencies
24
Chart 7
Fuel Consumption
14
Chart 24
Financial Account of Private Sector
24
Chart 8
Services account
15
Chart 25
Foreign Direct Investment
25
Chart 9
Travel Services
16
Chart 26
Foreign Direct Investment Based on Country of
25
Chart 10
Income Account
16
Chart 27
Foreign Direct Investment based on Economic
Chart 11
Workers’ Remittances
17
Chart 28
Oil & Gas Foreign Direct Investment
25
Chart 12
Capital
19
Chart 29
Non-Oil & Gas Foreign Direct Investment
26
Chart 13
Capital and Financial Account by Sector
20
Chart 30
Foreign Transaction in IDX and the Composite
26
Chart 14
Financial Account of Public Sector
20
Chart 31
Foreign Transaction in Private Sector Debt
Chart 15
Indonesia’s Yield Global Bond and US T-Note
21
Chart 32
Loan Disbursement of Private Sector
27
Chart 16
BI Rate and Fed Fund Rate
21
Chart 33
Reserve Assets
29
Chart 17
SUN & SBI Owned by Foreign Investors
22
Origin
25
Sector
and
Financial
Account
by
Type
of
Investment
Index
27
Securities
3
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
In Q3/2009, the overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of USD3.5 billion, up from the USD1.1
billion surplus in Q2/2009. Positive contributions to this surplus came from both the current account as well as the
capital and financial account. In response, the international reserves position at end-Q3/2009 mounted to USD62.3
billion, a level equivalent to 6.1 months of imports and servicing of official external debt.
The current account posted a USD1.7 billion surplus in Q3/2009, lower than the Q2/2009 surplus of USD2.9
billion. The lower surplus is explained by reduced performance in the non-oil & gas trade balance and the oil trade
balance. Non-oil & gas exports forged ahead on the upward trend under way since the preceding quarter, bolstered
by strong demand in some Asian economies and rising international market prices for leading primary commodity
exports. However, the accelerated pace of domestic economic activity prompted a surge in non-oil & gas import
growth (16.3%, q.t.q) ahead of non-oil & gas exports (9.5%, q.t.q), resulting in a diminished non-oil & gas trade
balance surplus compared to one quarter earlier. Accelerated domestic economic activity and the seasonal factor of
the Eid-ul-Fitr festivities also led to increased consumption of oil-based fuels and imports of oil with a consequent
deficit in the oil trade balance. Nevertheless, the current account benefited from a heftier surplus in the gas trade
balance following commencement of production at the Tangguh gas field and increases in world oil prices.
Offsetting the reduced current account surplus was stronger performance in the capital and financial
account. During Q3/2009, the capital and financial account posted a USD3.0 billion surplus, after a USD2.2 billion
deficit in the preceding period. Key to this surplus was stronger performance in portfolio investment and other
investments. The steady improvement in domestic macroeconomic conditions combined with attractive interest rates
on rupiah-denominated instruments prompted higher portfolio capital inflows. In other investments, improved
outlook for the economy, easing of global liquidity conditions, and comparatively low international interest rates
have encouraged greater foreign borrowing by the private sector. Other investments also benefited from an
additional allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). This allocation is intended to bolster the international reserves
held by member countries in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including Indonesia, as part of the efforts to
resolve the global economic crisis.
1
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
2
INDONESIA’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN Q3/2009 AND ITS
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
The global economic recovery contributed to the improvement in Indonesia’s Balance of Payments
in Q3/2009 that recorded a USD 3.5 billion surplus, higher than a USD 1.1 billion surplus in Q2/2009. This
positive performance was contributed by current account surplus of USD1.7 billion and capital and
financial accounts surplus of USD3.0 billion. The current account surplus contracted compared to the
surplus of preceding quarter. This was primarily due to the descending surplus of non oil/gas trade
balance in line with domestic economic growth acceleration causing non oil/gas imports grew higher than
non oil/gas exports. The decreased in current account surplus also stemmed from the increased deficit of
oil trade balance, services and income account as well as the descending current transfers surplus. The
declining surplus of current account was halted by the increase in gas trade balance surplus. Meanwhile
the performance of capital and financial account improved due to, among others, the growing portfolio
investment inflow. Capital and financial account improvement was also driven by decrease in other
investment deficit due to decrease in government foreign debt repayment, additional SDR allocation by
the IMF, as well as increase in private sector foreign debt disbursement . Following to the above
development, the amount of foreign reserves at end of the period rose to USD 62.3 billion or equivalent
to 6.1 months of imports and official debt service payments.
The development of Indonesia’s Balance of Payment during Q3/2009 was contributed by several
fundamental factors, both stemming from domestic and foreign aspects, such as:
•
The global economy showed signs of recovery reflected from the economic growth of major trade
partners such as the US, Japan and the European Union that although still negative (y.o.y) but with a
declining tendency. In the meantime, several Asian countries such as China and India still posted
positive growth. Those countries continued their fiscal stimulus policy in the effort of economic
recovery acceleration. The improved economic performance of those trade partners positively
impacted Indonesian non oil/gas export performance.
•
The global demand recovery supported the increased price of several major non oil/gas export
commodities, especially primary commodities. The expectation of global economy recovery promoted
the increase in world oil price that in turn boosted the prices of several other energy commodities
such as gas and coal. The development in the world’s oil price caused the Indonesian crude export
price (average unit price) in Q3/2009 rose to USD 66.5/bl from USD 56.9/bl in previous quarter. The
fluctuation of USD exchange rate against other major currencies also affected world oil price
3
movement. In line with this increase, LNG price also rose from USD 6.3/MBTU in Q2/2009 to USD
8.2/MBTU during the reporting period.
•
In line with the global economy recovery, Indonesian economy in Q3/2009 grew by 4.2%, higher than
4.0% in the previous quarter. By sectors, transportation and communication gave the biggest
contribution to economic growth in Q3/2009 followed by mining, construction, finance and services.
From demand side, consumption still provided considerable support to economic growth. In addition
to the improved consumer’s income and the low inflation rate prospects, the high rate of private
consumption was presumed related to Eid ul-Fitr festivities taking place during the period. This
situation accelerated the import growth especially imports of non oil/gas.
• Inflation rate was 2.8% in Q3/2009, lower than 3.7% in the preceding quarter. This condition was in
line with domestic demand that although increased, but was still considered insufficiently strong. The
appreciation of rupiah during the reporting period contributed to the low inflation rate. In line with
this and in order to boost domestic economic growth, Bank Indonesia mitigated monetary policy by
lowering BI rate. Nevertheless, the spread of domestic and foreign interest rates was still wide enough
to maintain, even increase, the high appeal of foreign portfolio investor.
•
The strengthening world demand and the increasing gas production from Tangguh field gave a
positive impact to LNG export volume that rose to 243.7 MBTU, higher than 228.1 MBTU in the
preceding period. Oil production in Q3/2009 reached 0.943 barrel per day (bpd), slightly higher than
the previous period (0.941 bpd) but it was still below government target of 0.960 bpd for 2009.
Apart from natural decline due to old oil fields condition that have passed their optimal limits, several
technical problems were considered as contributing factors to oil production slow recovery. In the
meantime, in line with the increasing domestic economic growth and Eid ul-Fitr festivities, fuel
consumption in Q3/2009 reached 88.3 million barrels, higher than the preceding period (84.5 million
barrels) which then affected the increase of oil imports during the reporting period.
4
Table 1
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments and
Several Economic Indicators in Q3/2009
COMPONENTS
UNITS
2007
2008
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic Growth
‐ United States of America
‐ Japan
‐ European Union
‐ Singapore
‐ China
World Price Commodity
‐ Crude Oil (OPEC)
‐ Coal
‐ Copper
‐ CPO
‐ Rubber
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
2.1
2.3
2.8
7.8
13.0
2.0
1.3
2.2
6.7
10.6
1.6
0.6
1.5
2.5
10.1
0.0
‐0.3
‐0.4
0.0
9.0
‐1.9
‐4.3
‐1.8
‐4.2
6.8
‐3.3
‐8.6
‐2.5
‐9.5
6.1
‐3.8
‐7.0
‐0.2
‐3.3
7.1
‐2.3
‐4.5
0.4
0.6
7.7
USD/barel
USD/metric ton
USD/metric ton
USD/ton
cent USD/kg
69.1
66
7,118
780
248
92.5
114
7,796
1,156
293
117.5
139
8,443
1,198
312
113.8
163
7,680
928
329
53.1
93
3,905
512
203
42.9
72
3,428
577
166
58.7
66
4,663
743
187
67.6
71
5,859
679
221
International Interest Rates ¹⁾
‐ United States of America
‐ Japan
‐ European Union
‐ Singapore
‐ China
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
5.1
0.5
3.9
2.7
6.8
3.2
0.6
4.0
1.5
7.5
2.1
0.5
4.0
1.3
7.5
2.0
0.5
4.3
1.4
7.4
1.1
0.3
3.2
1.0
5.9
0.25
0.1
1.8
0.7
5.3
0.25
0.1
1.1
0.7
5.3
0.25
0.1
1.0
0.7
5.3
Inflation ²⁾
‐ United States of America
‐ Japan
‐ European Union
‐ Singapore
‐ China
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
4.1
0.7
3.1
4.4
6.5
4.0
1.2
3.6
6.7
8.3
5.0
2.0
4.0
7.5
7.1
4.9
2.1
3.6
6.7
4.6
0.1
0.4
1.6
4.3
1.2
‐0.4
‐0.3
0.6
1.6
‐1.2
‐1.4
‐1.8
‐0.1
‐0.5
‐1.7
‐1.3
‐2.2
‐0.3
‐0.4
‐0.9
% (y.o.y)
% (y.o.y)
(Rp/USD)
USD/barel
mbpd
mbpy
mbtu
USD/mbtu
% (annual)
6.3
6.6
9,136
70.1
0.952
382.8
1,080
9.0
8.6
6.2
7.1
9,260
93.4
0.977
95.4
284
11.5
8.0
6.4
11.0
9,264
119.3
0.981
99.0
253
12.8
8.3
6.4
12.1
9,219
113.4
0.982
100.8
259
14.3
9.0
5.2
11.1
11,023
48.0
0.967
86.3
272
8.8
9.4
4.4
7.9
11,630
41.8
0.962
80.7
257
5.5
8.25
4.0
3.7
10,532
56.9
0.941
84.5
228
6.3
7.25
4.2
2.8
10,002
66.5
0.943
88.3
244
8.2
6.58
million USD
million USD
million USD
million USD
million USD
million USD
10,493
3,591
14,085
‐1,370
12,715
56,920
2,742
‐529
2,213
‐1,180
1,032
58,987
‐1,013
2,105
1,094
231
1,324
59,453
‐966
2,370
1,404
‐1,493
‐89
57,108
‐637
‐5,822
‐6,459
2,246
‐4,212
51,639
2,722
1,886
4,608
‐653
3,955
54,840
2,907
‐2,230
677
375
1,052
57,576
1,739
2,996
4,735
‐1,189
3,546
62,287
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GDP
CPI Inflation ²⁾
Exchange Rates ¹⁾
Average Price of Crude Oil Export
Oil Production
Fuel Consumption
Gas Export (LNG)
Gas Export Average Price (LNG)
BI Rate 1)
INDONESIAN BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
Current Account
Capital and Financial Account
Total
Net Errors and Omissions
Overall Balance
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Source: CEIC, IMF, World Bank, Bank Indonesia, and other sources
¹⁾ an interest rate policy sets by central bank / monetary authority (calculated as the average monthly)
²⁾ end‐month position of the relevant quarter
5
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
6
CURRENT ACCOUNT
The current account in Q3/2009 recorded a USD
balance surplus was influenced by the rise in gas export
1.7 billion surplus, lower than USD 2.9 billion surplus in
price and volume pursuant to the production of
Q2/2009. This declining surplus was stemmed from the
Tangguh gas field and the hike of world oil price.
weakening performance of non-oil & gas and oil trade
The upturn in income balance deficit was due to
balances. Other current account components i.e.
the hike of dividend payments to foreign portfolio
services, income, and current transfers also recorded a
investors pursuant to the improving listing company
decreasing performance. However, the declining surplus
performance in the preceding year. Services balance
of current account was slightly offset by the increasing
deficit slightly increased from the previous quarter and
gas trade balance surplus.
was dominated by the increasing of transportation
expenses due to the strengthening of imported goods.
million USD
9,000
Meanwhile, the decreasing surplus of current transfer
7,000
balance was due to a slight inflow drop of workers’
5,000
remittance.
3,000
1,000
1. Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
-1,000
-3,000
In Q3/2009, non-oil & gas trade balance recorded a
-5,000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
2007
Services
Income
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
2008*
Trade Balance
Current Trans.
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
Current Account
Chart 1
Current Account
USD5.9 billion surplus, lower than a USD6.4 billion
surplus in Q2/2009. The decreased surplus was due to a
steeper increase of non-oil & gas import growth
(16.3%, q.t.q) than non-oil & gas exports (9.5%, q.t.q).
Domestic economy posted a positive growth of
Non oil & gas trade balance posted a surplus lower
than the preceding quarter in line with the acceleration
of domestic economic activities which boosted non oil &
gas imports to grow faster than non oil & gas export.
This acceleration accompanied by Eid-ul-Fitr seasonal
factors contributed to the hike of fuel consumption and
oil imports thus consequently generating deficit in oil
trade balance. In the meantime, the increased gas trade
4.2% (y.o.y) in Q3/2009, higher than the preceding
period (4.0%, y.o.y). Economic growth was mainly due
to private consumption that influenced the hike of nonoil & gas import. The annual growth of non-oil & gas
imports improved from -27.0% (y.o.y) in Q2/2009 to 19.6% (y.o.y) in this period. The performance of non-oil
& gas exports also improved from -14.8% (y.o.y) to 9.6% (y.o.y).
7
million USD
38,000
million USD
8,000
33,000
7,000
28,000
6,000
23,000
5,000
18,000
4,000
13,000
3,000
8,000
2,000
1,000
3,000
Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3
2007
Export
2008*
Import
2009*
Trade Balance (RHS)
Chart 2
Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
1.1. Non-Oil and Gas Exports
Table 2
Growth of Non-Oil and Gas Exports by Sector
% Share
Agriculture
Value
Volume
Mining
Value
Volume
Manufacturing
Value
Volume
Total
Value
Volume
% Growth
(y.o.y)
Q2
Q3
Q3
11.3
2.3
11.5
2.3
13.7
17.3
11.6
23.9
-33.6
-18.2
-31.1
-0.3
25.0
82.5
28.8
84.8
15.0
45.3
26.4
26.1
6.9
0.2
16.1
38.6
62.9
15.2
58.9
12.9
18.8
15.8
2.7
4.5
-17.4
-8.4
-13.3
13.0
100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0
15.7
39.2
9.5
22.8
-14.8
-1.7
-9.6
33.5
The improving performance of non-oil & gas export
In Q3/2009, non-oil & gas export improved to
value was also reflected in the development of 10 major
USD26.0 billion compared to USD23.8 billion in the
commodities. In Q3/2009, almost all major commodities
preceding quarter.
of non-oil & gas exports, except machinery and
The strengthening performance of export value was
mechanic, recorded an increase compared to the
mainly related to mining products which increased by
previous
26.4% from the previous quarter. Exports of major
strengthening annual growth. They are among others,
mining commodities, such as coal and copper, increased
copper, coal, CPO, chemical and electronic products.
mainly in terms of volume in line with the increasing
Demand on the above mentioned commodities mainly
world demand, especially China. Meanwhile, exports of
came from Asian countries and partly from developed
agricultural and manufacturing products also posted a
countries
positive growth of 11.6% and 2.7%, respectively.
performance in those countries.
The improved export performance of the above
three sectors was also reflected on their annual growth.
quarter.
pursuant
the
negative
growth
of
31.1%
(y.o.y),
agricultural sector showed an improvement compared
to the previous year (-33.6%, y.o.y). Manufacturing
sector still recorded a negative growth of 13.3% (y.o.y)
but not as high as in the preceding quarter (-17.4%,
y.o.y).
to
commodities
the
posted
improving
% Growth (q.t.q)
Value
Volume
Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3
compared to 6.9% (y.o.y) in the preceding period.
Despite
Five
a
economic
Table 3
Growth of Major Export Commodities
Mining sector recorded a growth of 16.1% (y.o.y)
8
Q2
% Growth
(q.t.q)
Q2
Q3
Copper
Nickel
Coal
CPO
Electrical Appliances
Rubber
Chemical Product
Paper
Textile & Tex. Prod
Machinery & Mechanic
‐4.3
‐53.1
39.5
38.6
24.2
17.8
24.5
4.2
5.9
19.5
41.3
29.6
23.5
16.9
14.5
13.6
7.6
5.7
5.0
‐27.0
‐19.2
137.3
78.6
11.5
21.1
19.2
28.5
‐1.5
12.4
5.4
18.1
27.0
26.1
16.0
13.3
0.6
‐3.4
‐5.7
‐0.7
‐30.4
% Growth (y.o.y)
Value
Volume
Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3
7.0
‐79.4
42.1
‐29.1
8.2
‐56.3
‐16.4
‐27.7
‐11.6
‐13.1
108.1
‐79.7
49.7
21.9
15.9
‐56.4
‐15.2
‐28.9
‐13.2
‐46.9
57.0
‐23.3
7.8
17.4
‐1.6
‐15.7
‐42.6
1.0
‐0.9
‐22.5
193.7
136.7
48.4
90.0
4.8
‐16.1
‐5.9
‐16.8
‐4.5
‐57.0
Non-oil & gas exports to Japan recorded the
Compared to the same period in the previous year,
highest growth of 29.1% (share 13.3%) compared to
copper export performance recorded a positive growth
the preceding period, followed by export to European
by 108.1% (y.o.y), far higher than 7% (y.o.y) in the
Union (grew by 18.2%, share 14.3%) and the US (grew
preceding period.
by 10.6%, share 10.6%). On annual basis, however,
the non-oil & gas export performance to almost all
major
countries
of
destination
still
recorded
of 20.5% (share 8.7%).
Table 4
Non-Oil and Gas Exports
to Major Countries of Destination
(million USD)
Country
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
-1.9
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Japan
874
41.1
65.8
299.4
South Korea
243
11.4
19.9
256.2
36.7
Malaysia
210
9.9
72.6
Others
799
37.6
22.2
37.5
2,127
100.0
41.2
108.1
Total
Q3-2009
Country
Q3-2009
a
downturn, except to China which recorded an increase
Value
Table 5
Copper Exports to Several Countries of Destination
Coal
EU
3,727
14.3
18.2
Japan
3,454
13.3
29.1
-6.9
In Q3/2009 coal export value reached USD4.4
USA
2,756
10.6
10.6
-19.7
billion or grew by 23.5% from the preceding quarter.
China
2,276
8.7
-2.9
20.5
1,970
7.6
-11.4
-35.8
This growth was supported by the increase of export
Others
11,837
45.5
8.9
-8.2
volume by 26.1% (q.t.q). China’s dependency on coal
Total
26,020
100.0
9.5
-9.6
Singapore
in fulfilling this country’s demand of steam power was
still high. Besides China, the main destinations of coal
Copper
In Q3/2009 copper exports reached USD2.1 billion
export were Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan.
or grew by 41.3% from the preceding quarter. This
Coal export value also showed a growing trend
growth was contributed by both price and volume
compared to the same period in the previous year. In
factors. During this period copper price reached
Q3/2009, coal export grew by 49.7% (y.o.y), higher
USD5,859/Mton, higher than the preceding quarter
than 42.1% (y.o.y) in the preceding year.
Table 6
Coal Exports to Major Countries of Destination
(USD4,663/Mton). Copper export volume rose by
18.1% (q.t.q) in line with the growing demand,
Q3-2009
especially from Japan, South Korea and Malaysia.
Country
USD/MTon
9,000
8,000
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Japan
907
20.7
57.2
47.1
China
570
13.0
51.8
122.3
11.3
66.7
South Korea
565
12.9
7,000
Taiwan
542
12.4
9.9
17.3
6,000
India
529
12.1
-8.7
70.2
Others
2,333
53.3
12.0
36.4
Total
4,374
100.0
23.5
49.7
5,000
4,000
World economic recovery increased the demand on
3,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
2007
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008
Chart 3
World Copper Price
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
energy products including coal, which affected the hike
of its price to USD71.31/Mton, higher than the
preceding period (USD66.48/MTon). This rise was in line
9
with the growing oil price as coal was considered as an
than the previous quarter (USD743/MTon). According
alternative energy commodity.
to Association of Crude Palm Oil Producers (GAPKI), the
decrease of CPO price was due to the increasing supply
USD/MTon
180
from Malaysia and Indonesia. In line with CPO price
160
140
drop, the government decreased the export duty from
120
3% to 0% starting August 2009. This decision refers to
100
80
price development in Rotterdam market that reached
60
USD 674.84/MTon in August 2009, below the price
40
reference of USD750/MTon.
20
0
USD/MTon
Q1
Q2
Q3
2007
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1,400
1,200
2009
1,000
Chart 4
World Coal Price
800
600
CPO
400
In Q3/2009 CPO exports reached USD2.7 billion or
200
grew by 16.9% from the previous quarter. The
0
Q1
strengthening export value was in line with the increase
Q2
Q3
Q4
2007
of export volume by 16% (q.t.q). The cancellation of
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008
Q2
Q3
2009
Chart 5
World CPO Price
rise in import duty in India and the celebration of Idul
Fitri in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Middle East had
also affected CPO demand. The improving CPO export
Electronic
Export of electronic products reached USD2.9
performance was also reflected on its annual growth.
CPO exports in this period experienced a significant
growth by 21.9% (y.o.y) in contradiction with the
previous quarter (-29.1%, y.o.y).
Table 7
CPO Exports to Major Countries of Destination
Q3-2009
Country
India
EU
China
Others
Total
Value
% Growth % Growth
% Share
(million USD)
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
872
31.8
13.8
-2.9
549
20.0
78.2
81.2
414
15.1
-5.6
190.1
905
33.0
9.0
0.0
2,740
100.0
16.9
21.9
Despite a significant increase in export volume,
preceding quarter. This increase was mainly driven by
the export of digital camera and video player destinated
to European Union and East Asia. The major countries
of
electronic
export
destination
were
Singapore
(20.2%), European Union (18.5%) and the US (15.4%).
Table 8
Electronic Exports to Major Countries of Destination
Q3-2009
Country
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth % Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Singapore
579
20.2
9.9
-22.6
EU
531
18.5
18.3
69.6
USA
442
15.4
14.8
53.4
CPO export price experienced a decrease. The average
Others
1,317
45.9
13.8
-46.8
CPO price in Q3/2009 was USD679/MTon, slightly
Total
2,868
100.0
14.5
15.9
lower
10
billion in Q3/2009 or grew by 14.5% from the
The performance of electronic exports showed an
Table 10
Non-Oil & Gas Imports Based on Types of Goods
improvement compared to the previous year reflected
% Share
Q2
Q3
% Growth
(q.t.q)
Q2
Q3
Consumption Goods
Value
Volume
7.8
5.4
8.1
5.0
18.6
3.7
20.8
9.9
-37.5
-28.9
-34.5
-23.1
Raw Material
Value
Volume
64.4
90.4
64.7
91.0
15.6
42.7
16.7
18.8
-34.6
-19.9
-24.2
1.0
Capital Goods
Value
Volume
27.0
4.2
26.2
4.0
9.5
-5.6
13.1
13.1
7.2
-10.7
2.3
-5.4
Total
Value
Volume
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
14.0
37.0
16.3
18.1
-27.0
-20.1
-19.6
-0.8
by the annual growth of 15.9% (y.o.y) or higher than
8.2% (y.o.y) in the preceding period.
Chemical Products
Export of chemical products in Q3/2009 reached
USD 1.7 billion or grew by 7.6% compared to the
preceding quarter. This increase was mainly driven by
price factor while the volume recorded a decrease of
3.4% from the previous quarter. The main export
destinations were China, European Union and Malaysia.
% Growth
(y.o.y)
Q2
Q3
The improved export performance of chemical
Non-oil & gas imports in Q3/2009 reached USD20.1
products was also reflected in the annual growth of
negative 15.2% (y.o.y), better than the preceding
billion, higher than USD17.3 billion in the preceding
quarter. The imported goods were mainly from China,
period (-16.4%, y.o.y).
Singapore, Japan, European Union and the US.
Table 9
Exports of Chemical Products
to Major Countries of Destination
Table 11
Non-Oil & Gas Import Based on Country of Origin
Q3-2009
Q3-2009
Country
China
Value
(million USD)
248
% Share
% Growth % Growth
15.0
(q.t.q)
23.4
(y.o.y)
75.0
EU
183
11.0
10.9
-14.1
Malaysia
141
8.5
5.9
-26.7
Others
1,088
65.5
4.2
-22.9
Total
1,660
100.0
7.6
-15.2
1.2. Non-Oil & Gas Import
Country
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
China
3,748
17.1
20.5
Singapore
3,017
13.8
28.8
-6.2
Japan
2,570
11.7
14.1
-27.2
EU
2,187
10.0
-0.1
-22.6
USA
1,740
7.9
7.1
-22.4
Others
Total
-16.8
8,650
39.5
18.2
-20.9
21,912
100.0
16.3
-19.6
Import of Raw Materials
In Q3/2009 non-oil & gas import experienced a
In Q3/2009 import of raw materials reached
steeper increase by recording a growth of 16.3%
USD14.2 billion or grew by 16.7% compared to the
(q.t.q), higher than 14% (q.t.q) in Q2/2009. This
preceding period. Demand recovery of imported raw
growth was related to import of consumption goods,
material was also reflected from the annual growth.
raw material as well as capital goods.
11
Despite recording an ongoing minus rate (-24.2%),
Table 13
Import Value of Consumption Goods
Based on Country of Origin (C&F)
it was not as steep as in the previous quarter (-34.6%).
The growing demand on imported raw materials was in
Q3-2009
line with the condition of manufacturing sector which
Country
was estimated to recover after the global economic
crisis.
The highest growth of raw materials imports was
Value
% Share
(million USD)
% Growth % Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
Thailand
386
21.7
48.2
-16.1
China
370
20.8
2.3
-58.3
Singapore
152
8.5
27.3
-8.0
from China (14.2%), followed by Singapore (12.4%)
Others
874
49.0
19.3
-27.6
and Japan (12.3%). Major raw materials import
Total
1,782
100.0
20.8
-34.5
commodities recorded positive growth include animal
feed, steel raw material and electrical equipment. The
Import of Capital Goods
Import of capital goods in Q3/2009 reached
growing demand of steel raw material was considered
USD5.8 billion or grew by 13.1% from the preceding
related to the rise in investment in property sector.
period. The annual growth of capital goods, however,
Table 12
Import Value of Raw Materials
Based on Country of Origin (C&F)
showed a downturn to 2.3% (y.o.y) from 7.2% (y.o.y)
in the previous quarter.
Q3-2009
Country
Value
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth
% Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
China
2,010
14.2
19.2
-18.9
Singapore
1,762
12.4
30.6
-27.4
-31.2
Japan
Others
Total
1738
12.3
14.3
8,661
61.1
14.2
-23.1
14,171
100.0
16.7
-24.2
Imports of capital goods were mainly from China
(share 23.2%), Singapore (18.7%) and Japan (12.3%).
Table 14
Import Value of Capital Goods
Based on Country of Origin (C&F)
Q3-2009
Country
Import of Consumption Goods
In Q3/2009 imports of consumption goods reached
USD1.8 billion or grew by 20.8% compared to the
(million USD)
% Share
% Growth % Growth
(q.t.q)
(y.o.y)
China
1,332
23.2
28.0
20.9
Singapore
1,075
18.7
25.5
79.7
707
12.3
14.3
-20.3
preceding quarter. This increase was considered related
Others
2,636
45.8
2.5
-13.1
to Ramadhan and Eid ul-Fitr celebration reflecting hike
Total
5,750
100.0
13.1
2.3
in food, beverage and clothes consumption. This
development was in line with the consumption increase
on GDP in Q3/2009.
12
Value
Japan
2.
Oil & Gas Trade Balance
In Q3/2009, oil and gas trade balance still provided
The annual growth of consumption goods imports
a positive contribution to the development of overall
also increased to minus 34.5% (y.o.y) compared to
trade balance by posting a USD2.0 billion surplus or
minus 37.5% (y.o.y) in the preceding period.
relatively equal to the surplus recorded in Q2/2009
Imports of consumption goods were mainly from
(USD2.0 billion). Despite this equivalent surplus, the
Thailand (share 21.7%), China (20.8%) and Singapore
trade balance composition was different with higher
(8.5%).
gas surplus and oil deficit.
A growing surplus was recorded in gas trade
billion to USD2.2 billion. This exported was mainly to
balance driven by gas price development while LNG
Australia, Japan, China and Korea and the types of
export volume showed a climbing tendency. Meanwhile
crude oil exported included SLC, Duri, Senipah and
oil import was larger than oil export in response to
Belanak.
domestic demand acceleration related to Eid ul-Fitr
Oil imports in Q3/2009 recorded a significant
increase from USD2.3 billion to USD3.7 billion. Similar
seasonal factor.
to export trend, this raise was also partly driven by the
oil price movement. Oil import¹ price rose from
2.1. Oil
After recording a surplus of USD68 million in
Q2/2009, oil trade balance experienced a USD779
million deficit in Q3/2009 pursuant to oil import
increase. This trend was related among others to the
growth of fuel consumption before and during Eid ul-
Fitr period.
reporting period.
In terms of volume oil import
increased from 40.1 million barrel to 50.4 million barrel.
Imports of crude oil during Q3/2009 for refinery
intake were originated from the Middle East with ALC
(Arab Light Crude) oil type and followed by crude oil
from Brunei, Africa, China and Malaysia. These types of
Table 15
Oil Exports and Imports
crude oil were used for several refineries such as
Cilacap, Balikpapan and Balongan that are the principal
2009
Details
USD58.4/barrel to USD70.3/barrel in average during the
Q2
Value (mill.
USD)
Volume
(mbbl)
Exports
Crude Oil
Refinery Products
2,411
1,775
635
41.5
31.6
9.9
Imports
Crude Oil
Refinery Products
2,343
857
1,486
40.1
17.3
22.8
Q3
Price
Value (mill.
(USD/barel)
USD)
Volume
(mbbl)
Price
(USD/barel)
56.2
64.4
2,967
2,206
761
43.1
33.1
10.0
66.6
76.4
0.0
49.4
65.3
3,746
1,489
2,258
53.3
22.8
30.5
0.0
65.2
74.1
refineries providing for domestic fuel supply.
Table 16
Demand and Supply of World Oil
Details
2007
(in mbpd )
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Oil Demand
Northern America
China
Western Europe
Others
25.5
7.6
15.3
37.6
24.2
8.0
15.3
38.1
23.5
7.6
14.9
37.9
23.0
8.3
14.4
37.5
23.3
8.4
14.8
38.0
Total Oil Demand
86.0
85.6
83.9
83.2
84.5
preceding quarter. This mounting trend was mainly
Oil Supply
OPEC
Non OPEC
driven by oil price that recording a growth of 18%
Total Oil Supply
0.0
30.2
54.6
84.6
84.8
0.0
31.2
54.8
0.0
86.0
0.0
28.4
55.5
0.0
84.0
0.0
28.5
55.2
0.0
83.7
0.0
28.8
55.7
0.0
84.5
while a slight increase was also recorded (around 5%
Netto Demand ‐ Supply
‐1.2
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
Oil Trade Balance
68
‐779
Source: BPMigas & PT Pertamina (Processed)
Oil exports during the reporting period rose to
USD3.0 billion or grew by 23.1% compared to the
for crude oil and 1% for oil product) in terms of
volume.
Source: OPEC Oil Monthly Report ‐ October 2009
The movements of Indonesian oil prices were in
Refinery product exports experienced a slight
line with world oil price movement. OPEC and WTI
increase from 9.9 million barrel in Q2/2009 to 10.0
basket crude oil price showed an increase reaching
million barrel in the reporting period with a value
respectively USD67.17/barrel and USD69.34/barrel. The
amounting to USD761 million. This export was largely
expectation for global economic recovery in 2010 and
destinated to Asian countries such as Malaysia, Japan,
the weakening USD exchange rate contributed to the
Korea, Singapore and China. Crude oil export volume
hike in oil price. The oil price still experienced an
increased from 31.6 million barrel to 33.1 million barrel
increase despite the indication of oversupply in terms of
followed by the hike of export value from USD1.8
demand and supply (OPEC Monthly Report).
13
USD/barel
million Kilo litre
140
130
million Kilo litre
3.50
120
9.00
3.00
8.50
110
2.50
100
90
80
2.00
8.00
1.50
7.50
70
60
50
40
30
1.00
SLC
Indonesian Export Price
WTI
OPEC
7.00
0.50
6.50
0.00
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
2008
2007
Source: OPEC, Ditjen Migas
2008
Industry
Chart 6
World Oil Price
With reference to domestic supply the average
Household
Electricity
Trasportation (RHS)
Chart 7
Fuel Consumption
2.2. Gas
Indonesian oil production reached 0.943 million barrel
The growing trend of oil and gas price had driven
per day, slightly higher than the average production in
a positive contribution to gas trade balance in Q3/2009
the previous quarter (0.941 milion barrel per day). This
by recording a USD2.7 billion surplus from a USD1.9
production was however still below oil production
billion surplus in Q2/2009. This higher surplus was also
assumption defined in the 2009 APBN-P 2009 (0.960
related to the increasing LNG export volume.
million barrel per day). This condition was driven among
The exported LNG product in the reporting period
others by the production of Cepu field that had not
reached USD2.0 billion (244 mmbtu) or grew from
worked in accordance with the initial target as well as
USD1.4 billion (228 mmbtu) in Q2/2009. This growing
by the natural declining of old oil fields.
trend was in line with addition of oil production from
In terms of domestic demand, fuel consumption
Tangguh field. Indonesia has an extensive gas reserves
during the reporting period experienced an increase to
amounting to 170.1 TSCF (Trillion Standard Cubic Feet)
88.3 million barrel compared to 84.5 million barrel in
with the following composition: 112.5 TSCF of proven
the preceding period. Pertaining to user sectors, the
reserves and 57.7 TSCF of potential reserves. Gas
hike in fuel consumption was mainly reflected in
reserves was higher in 2008 compared to 2007.
industrial, electrical and transportation sectors while the
use in household sector showed a decrease. Despite
posting an increase compared to the preceding quarter,
the hike of fuel consumption was not steep and the
level was still below the previous year. This was driven
by the success of the conversion program to replace
Table 17
Indonesian Gas Reserves (billion cubic feet)
Year
Reserves
Proven
Potential
Total
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
91
91
97
94
106
87
98
89
93
59
113
58
178
188
186
187
165
170
household oil-based fuels with gas as well as the energy
Price factor also improved the export value of
conversion to coal in several power plants. This success
natural gas, compensating the decrease in its export
was reflected in oil consumption which declined to 88.9
volume. Export value of natural gas increased from
million barrel from 100.8 million barrel in the previous
USD565 million to USD759 million.
year.
14
2009
2009
Transportation services recorded a deficit of
Table 18
Exports of LNG, LPG and Natural Gas
Details
2007
2008*
USD2.4 bilion, higher than USD2.0 billion in the
2009*
Q2
Q1
preceding quarter. The hike in deficit among others
Q3
reflected the considerable dependency on foreign fleet
LNG
Volume (mmbtu)
Value (million USD)
Price(USD/mmbtu)
1,080 1,068 257 228 244
9,723 12,785 1,426 1,448 1,989
9.0 11.9 5.5 6.3 8.2
LPG
Volume (000 metric ton)
Value (million USD)
Price (USD/MTon)
337 101 ‐
210 79 ‐
604.7 394.9 ‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
in fulfilling transportation demand. In the effort of
lessening this dependency, the government emanated a
policy of cabotage principle that oblige the shipping of
commodities between domestic ports conducted by
national fleet. This policy had been implemented for
Natural Gas
Volume (mmbtu)
Value (million USD)
Price (USD/mmbtu)
293 303 78 77 76
2,443 3,469 441 565 759
8.3 11.3 5.7 7.4 10.0
Gas Trade Balance
Export (million USD)
Import million USD)
12,345
12,376
31
16,147
16,333
186
1,744
1,867
123
1,906
2,013
107
2,697
2,748
51
commodities such as palm oil and agricultural products
however the application was still very limited due to
difficulties in new fleet financing.
In
Q3/2009
travel
services
(tourism
sector)
recorded a USD223 million surplus, slightly lower than
Source: BPMigas
USD248 million in Q2/2009. This declining surplus was
3.
Services Account
due to the increase of foreign exchange expenses by
In line with the strengthening domestic economic
Indonesian travelers abroad from USD1,323 million to
activities that consequently affected the increase of
USD1,441
transportation expenses related to imported products,
international travelers in Indonesia from USD1,572
the deficit of services account in Q3/2009 rose to
million to USD1,664 million.
USD3.2
billion
compared
to
USD3.0
billion
million
exceeding
the
expenses
of
in
The economic recovery experienced by several
Q2/2009.The hike in economic activities had also
countries contributed to the increase of international
triggered increase in deficit of other services such as
tourists visiting Indonesia. The number of international
insurance and other financial intermediary services. The
tourists (inbound) in Q3/2009 reached 1,671 thousand
increase in services account deficit was also related to
people higher than 1,590 thousand people in Q2/2009.
the declining surplus of travel, communication and
This increase was also triggered by the organization of
government services.
several international tourism activities such as Darwin
Ambon Yacht Race 2009 in July 2009 involving
million USD
participants from UK, Australia and Germany and Sail
1000
500
Bunaken event organized early August 2009 in Manado
0
-500
gathering participants from 33 countries.
-1000
The statistic of international tourists was still
-1500
-2000
dominated by travelers coming from neighboring
-2500
-3000
countries. Tourists from Singapore were in the first rank
-3500
(share 13.9%) followed by Australia (10.8%), Malaysia
-4000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
(10.8%), Japan (9.01%) and China (6.9%). Only
2007
Transportation
2008*
Travel
Other services
Chart 8
Services account
2009*
Services, net
Australia out of 3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and
Australia) shows a consistent increase in the number of
tourists since Q1/2009.
15
Bali was still considered as the main tourist
increasing profit transfer to foreign companies dealing
destination representing 41.4% of the market share,
with oil & gas sector pursuant to the rise in oil & gas
followed by Jakarta (21.8%) and Batam (13.0%).
production. In contrast, the interest payment of
Australia (share 19.5%), Japan (14.0%) and China
government foreign debt decreased in the reporting
(8.3%) were countries with the largest number of
period according to its cyclical pattern.
tourists visiting Bali.
million USD
Thousand people
million USD
700
800
600
600
500
400
400
300
200
200
100
0
0
-100
-200
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
2007
2008
-200
2009
-400
-300
-400
-600
-500
-600
-800
Inbound (thousan people)
Outbound (thousand people)
Trav. Balance (thousand people)
Inflows (million USD) RHS
Trav. Balance (million USD) RHS
Outflows (million USD) RHS
Chart 9
Travel Services
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
-3,000
-3,500
-4,000
-4,500
-5,000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
2007
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
2008*
Income, net
PI Income
Inv. Income
OI Income
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
DI Income
Chart 10
Income Account
Income from portfolio investment recorded a
On the other hand, the number of Indonesian
USD1.4 billion deficit, higher than USD0.7 billion in the
people going abroad also grew to 1,495 thousand
preceding quarter. The increase of this deficit was
people in Q3/2009 from 1,373 thousand people in the
mainly triggered by the rise in dividend payment on
preceding quarter. This growth was followed by the
shares owned by foreign investors to USD1.0 billion
increase of foreign exchange expenses related to this
from USD0.5 billion. This condition was consistent with
trip from USD1.3 billion to USD1.4 billion.
the increase of foreign ownership of domestic shares in
Neighboring ASEAN countries still remained the
the preceding periods.
main destination of Indonesian travelers such as
The deficit in direct investment income also
Singapore (share 43.9%), Malaysia (25.4%) and
mounted to USD2.2 billion from USD2.1 billion in
Thailand (3.9%). Australia (5.5%) and the US (4.3%)
Q2/2009. This growing deficit was related to the
were the main destination of Indonesian tourists outside
increased profit transfer reported by oil & gas
ASEAN countries.
companies from USD0.8 billion to USD1.3 billion in the
reporting period.
4.
Income Account
In Q3/2009 the income account recorded a
Q3/2009 decreased to USD0.3 billion from USD0.9
USD4.1 billion deficit, higher than USD3.7 billion deficit
billion in Q2/2009. This contraction was related to the
in Q2/2009. This increase was mainly related to the
decrease in foreign debt repayments by the government
growing dividend payment to foreign investor portfolio.
from USD0.7 billion to USD0.2 billion.
The growth of deficit was also contributed by the
16
On the other hand, deficit in other investment in
5.
Other component contributing the surplus of
Current Transfers
a
current transfer was the revenue related to non-
USD1,176 million surplus, slightly lower than USD1,200
investment grant in the form of food, clothes,
million in the previous quarter. The decreased inflows of
medicines and medical equipment. In Q3/2009 this
remittances from Indonesian labor abroad and the
revenue reached USD40 million, higher than USD32
increased outflows of remittances by foreign labor had
million in Q2/2009.
caused this declining surplus. The revenue from
quarter was among other from Dutch Government in
remittances
posted
the form of hospital medical equipment that officially
USD1,603 million, slightly lower than USD1,652 million
accepted by the Indonesian Ambassador for the
in the previous period. On the other hand, outflows
Netherland on August 24, 2009. UNICEF had also
from remittance of foreigners working in Indonesia
provided aid in the form of tents for earthquake victims
reached USD440 million, slightly higher than USD432
in Tasikmalaya, West Java.
In
Q3/2009
of
the
current
Indonesian
transfer
workers
posted
was
The grants received during this
Table 19
Non-Investment Grant
million in Q2/2009.
(million USD)
million USD
2008*
Non Investment Grants
2000
2009*
Q.1.
Q.2.
Q.3.
Q.4.
Q.1.
Q.2.
Q.3.
Total
86
41
62
145
73
32
40
Public (Govt.)
17
27
38
128
4
15
20
Private (NGO)
69
14
24
17
69
17
20
(Current Transfer)
1500
1000
500
0
Source : Ministry of Finance & United Nation
-500
-1000
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
2007
TKI Inflow
Q.3
Q.4
2008*
TKA Outflow
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
worker remittance, net
Chart 11
Workers’ Remittances
17
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
18
CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
In Q3/2009 capital and financial account posted a
million USD
6,000
USD3.0 billion surplus, better than a USD 2.2 billion
4,000
deficit in the previous quarter. This surplus was
2,000
contributed by the improving performance of portfolio
0
investment and other investment. The strengthening
-2,000
domestic macroeconomic conditions, supported by a
relatively attractive rupiah interest rate, had triggered
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
the inflows of portfolio investment. In the meantime,
Q.1
additional SDR allocation by IMF, and the growing
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
2007
other investment deficit declined due to the decrease of
scheduled foreign debt repayments by the government,
Q.2
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
2008*
Q.2
Q.3
2009*
Direct Investment
Portfolio Investment
Other Investment
Financial Account
Chart 12
Capital and Financial Account by Type of Investment
foreign loan disbursement by private sector. The
strengthening
economic
prospect,
relaxing
global
1.
Capital Account
liquidity as well as relatively low overseas interest rate
The capital account in Q3/2009 recorded a USD34
had contributed to growing private sector foreign
million surplus, higher than a surplus of USD29 million
financin