ANALISIS PERKIRAAN KEBUTUHAN KONSUMSI ENERGI LISTRIK DI PULAU BANGKA TAHUN 2017-2026

  Diajukan Untuk Memenuhi Persyaratan Guna Meraih Gelar Sarjana S-1 Oleh : Rosario Grace Olivio 102 1311 046 JURUSAN TEKNIK ELEKTRO FAKULTAS TEKNIK UNIVERSITAS BANGKA BELITUNG 2017

  

INTISARI

  Seiring perkembangan jaman serta kemajuan teknologi, kebutuhan akan energi listrik juga semakin bertambah. Bertambahnya kebutuhan energi listrik dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor seperti kepadatan penduduk, meningkatnya industri dan kebutuhan ekonomi. Berdasarkan data PLN Area Pangkalpinang hingga bulan desember tahun 2016 konsumsi energinya mencapai 61.383.987 kWh, maka diperlukan perencanaan dimana perkiraan adalah bagian dari perencanaan. Tujuannya untuk mengetahui kebutuhan konsumsi energi listrik tahun 2017-2026. Perkiraan konsumsi energi dilakukan dengan metode trend eksponensial, regresi linier sederhana dan trend parabola dengan menggunakan data tahun sebelumnya tahun 2011-2016 ditinjau dari sektor rumah tangga, bisnis, industri, publik. Dari ketiga metode tersebut dihitung nilai kesalahan perkiraan dan membuat grafik perbandingan antara data hasil perkiraan dengan data sebenarnya. Dari hasil perbandingan diketahui metode regresi linier sederhana lebih baik digunakan untuk perkiraan tahun 2017-2026 dan diketahui hasil perkiraan terbesar pada sektor rumah tangga pada sisi pelanggan tahun 2026 sebesar 614.902 pelanggan dengan daya tersambung 769.194 kVA dan konsumsi energi 1.091.652.159 kWh.

  Kata kunci :Perkiraan, MetodePerhitungan, Perbandingan.

  

ABSTRACT

  Along with the development of the times and technological advances, the need for electrical energy is also increasing. Increased electrical energy demand is influenced by several factors such as population density, increased industry and economic needs. Based on PLN data of Pangkalpinang Area until December 2016, its energy consumption reaches 201,383,987 kWh in 2016, so planning is needed where estimates are part of the planning. The goal is to find out the needs of electric energy consumption in 2017-2026. Estimated energy consumption is done by exponential trend method, simple linear regression and parabolic trend using the previous year data 2011-2016 in terms of household sector, business, industry, public. Of the three methods are calculated the estimated error value and make a comparison graph between the data estimates with the actual data. From the comparison result, it is known that the simple linear regression method is better used for estimating the year 2017-2026 and the biggest estimate for household sector on customer side until 2026 is 614,902 subscribers with power connected 769,194 kVA and energy consumption 1,091.652.159 kWh.

  Keywords : Estimation, Calulating Methods, Comparasion

  

DFTAR ISI

HALAMAN JUDUL

  ...............................................................................................i

  HALAMAN PERSETUJUAN

  ............................................................................. ii

  HALAMAN PENGESAHAN

  .............................................................................. iii

  HALAMAN PERNYATAAN KEASLIAN PENELITIAN

  ...............................iv

  HALAMAN PERNYATAAN PERSETUJUAN PUBLIKASI

  ...........................v

  INTISARI

  ..............................................................................................................vi

  ABSTRACT

  ......................................................................................................... vii

  HALAMAN PERSEMBAHAN

  ........................................................................ viii

  DAFTAR ISI

  ..........................................................................................................xi

  DAFTAR GAMBAR

  ...........................................................................................xiv

  DAFTAR TABEL

  ...............................................................................................xv

  BAB I PENDAHULUAN

  1.1 Latar Belakang ..................................................................................................1

  1.2 Rumusan Masalah ..............................................................................................2

  1.3 Batasan Masalah.................................................................................................2

  1.4 Keaslian Penelitian.............................................................................................3

  1.5 Manfaat Penelitian .............................................................................................3

  1.6 Tujuan ................................................................................................................4

  1.7 Sistematika Penulisan ........................................................................................4

  BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA

  2.1 Tinjauan Pustaka ................................................................................................6

  2.2 LandasanTeori....................................................................................................7

  2.2.1 Peramalan ........................................................................................................7

  2.2.2 Kebutuhan (Demand) ......................................................................................8

  2.2.3 Kebutuhan Maksimum ....................................................................................8

  2.2.4 Daya Aktif (P) .................................................................................................9

  2.2.5 Daya Reaktif (Q) .............................................................................................9

  2.2.6 Daya Semu (S) ..............................................................................................10

  2.2.7 Segitiga Daya ...............................................................................................10

  2.2.8 Pengembangan Tenaga Listrik .....................................................................11

  2.2.9 Analisa Beban Sistem .................................................................................12

  2.2.10 Perkiraan Beban Jangka Pendek ................................................................12

  2.2.11 Perkiraan Beban Jangka Menengah ...........................................................12

  2.2.12 Perkiraan Beban Jangka Panjang ...............................................................12

  2.2.13 Model Peramalan ........................................................................................12

  2.2.14 Peramalan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik ..........................................................13

  2.2.15 Sektor Rumah Tangga.................................................................................13

  2.2.16 Sektor Bisnis ...............................................................................................14

  2.2.17 Sektor Industri .............................................................................................14

  2.2.17 Sektor Publik...............................................................................................14

  2.2.19 Metodologi Perkiraan..................................................................................14

  2.2.20 Metode Analisis ..........................................................................................15

  2.2.21 Metode Ekonometri.....................................................................................15

  2.2.22 Metode Gabungan .......................................................................................16

  2.3 Metode Peramalan........................................................................................16

  2.3.1 Metode Trend Eksponensial..........................................................................10

  2.3.2 Metode Regresi Linier Sederhana .................................................................11

  2.3.4 Metode Trend Parabola ................................................................................12

  2.3.5 Kesalahan Peramalan ....................................................................................13

  BAB III METODE PENELITIAN

  3.1 Bahan Atau Materi Penelitian ..........................................................................20

  3.2 Alat Penelitian..................................................................................................21

  3.3 Langkah Penelitian...........................................................................................21

  3.4 Pembuatan Model.............................................................................................23

  3.4.1 Contoh Perhitungan Trend Eksponensial......................................................23

  3.4.2 Contoh Perhitungan Regresi Linier Sederhana .............................................24

  3.4.3 Contoh Perhitungan Trend Parabola .............................................................25

  BAB IV HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN

  4.1 Perhitungan Menggunakan Metode Trend Eksponensial ................................26

  4.1.1 Perhitungan PelangganTiap Sektor ...............................................................26

  4.1.2 Perhitungan Daya Tersambung Tiap Sektor .................................................30

  4.1.3 Perhitungan Konsumsi Energi Tiap Sektor...................................................34

  4.2 Perhitungan Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier Sederhana...................38

  4.2.1 Perhitungan Pelanggan Tiap Sektor ..............................................................38

  4.2.2 Perhitungan Daya Tersambung Tiap Sektor .................................................42

  4.2.3 Perhitungan Konsumsi Energi Tiap Sektor...................................................46

  4.3 Perhitungan Menggunakan Metode Trend Parabola.....................................50

  4.3.1 Perhitungan Pelanggan Tiap Sektor ..............................................................50

  4.3.2 Perhitungan Daya Tersambung Tiap Sektor .................................................54

  4.4 Perbandingan Nilai Error Tiap Metdoe ........................................................63

  4.4.1 Perbandingan Nilai Error Pelanggan Tiap Metdoe ......................................63

  4.4.2 Perbandingan Nilai Error Daya Tersambung Tiap Metdoe..........................64

  4.4.3 Perbandingan Nilai Error Konsumsi Energi Tiap Metdoe ...........................66

  4.5 Perkiraan Kebutuhan Konsumsi Energi Listrik Tahun 2017-2026..................67

  4.5.1 Perkiraan Pelanggan Tahun 2017-2026 ........................................................68

  4.5.2 Perkiraan Daya Tersambung Tahun 2017-2026 ...........................................70

  4.5.3 Perkiraan Konsumsi Energi 2017-2026 ........................................................73

  BAB V PENUTUP

  5.1 Kesimpulan ......................................................................................................76

  5.2 Saran.................................................................................................................77

  DAFTAR PUSTAKA

  ...........................................................................................77

  LAMPIRAN

  

DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 2.1 Perubahan Kebutuhan Maksimum Terhadap Waktu ...........................8Gambar 3.1 Diagram Alir Penelitian .....................................................................21Gambar 4.1 Grafik Perbandingan Pelanggan Trend Eksponensial........................28Gambar 4.2 Grafik Perbandingan Daya Tersambung Trend Eksponensial ...........32Gambar 4.3 Grafik Perbandingan Konsumsi Energi Trend Eksponensial.............36Gambar 4.4 Grafik Perbandingan Pelanggan Regresi Linier Sederhana ...............41Gambar 4.5 Grafik Perbandingan DayaTersambungRegresi Linier Sederhana ....44Gambar 4.6 Grafik PerbandinganKonsumsiEnergiRegresi Linier Sederhana .......48Gambar 4.7 Grafik PerbandinganPelanggan Trend Parabola ................................53Gambar 4.8 Grafik Perbandingan Daya Tersambung Trend Parabola ..................57Gambar 4.9 Grafik Perbandingan Konsumsi Trend Parabola................................60Gambar 4.10 Grafik Perkiraan Pelanggan Tahun 2017-2026................................70Gambar 4.11 Grafik Perkiraan Daya Tersambung Tahun 2017-2026 ...................72Gambar 4.12 Grafik Perkiraan Konsumsi Energi Tahun 2017-2026.....................74

  

DAFTAR TABEL

Tabel 3.1 Data Pelanggan Listrik Tiap Sektor .......................................................20Tabel 3.2 Data Daya Tersambung Tiap Sektor ......................................................20Tabel 3.3 Data Konsumsi Energi Listrik Tiap Sektor............................................20Tabel 3.4.1 Contoh Perhitungan Nilai a dan b Konsumsi Energi Rumah Tangga.23

  Tabel 3.4.2

  Contoh Perhitungan Nilai a dan b Konsumsi Energi Rumah Tangga ..24