4. Wicaksono National Urban Policy Wharton 071116x
URBANIZATION
AND THE NEED FOR A
NATIONAL URBAN POLICY
Wicaksono Sarosa
Chair, Executive Board of Kemitraan-Habitat
Chief Knowledge Worker, Ruang-Waktu Knowledge Hub for Sustainable [Urban] Development
Outline
►Understanding Urbanization – in general
and in Indonesia
►The Need for “Better Quality
Urbanization”
►Challenges in Managing Urbanization
►The Need for [More Coherent] National
Urban Policy – its various aspects
Understanding Urbanization
Causes of urbanization:
• Rural to urban migration (temporary, circular or
permanent)
• Urban area expansion (urbanizing rural
areas)
• Natural births in urban areas
URBANIZATION
or the increasing percentage of people
living in urban areas
► It is an inevitable phenomenon until it reaches the “urbanization equilibrium” – we can try to
“mitigate” urbanization by improving infrastructure, facilities and services in rural areas, but
some people will still move to urban areas
► People moves to the city to find a better life. It’s the people’s rights to seek for a better life.
► It can have bad consequences [increasing and unmet demand for housing, infrastructure,
facilities, services in urban areas], but urbanization also offers lots of opportunities
► Globally, the level of urbanization is strongly correlated with the level of economic progress of a
country [not always the case but the correlation is strong/high]
Understanding Urbanization
Notes:
• And while urbanization and per
capita GDP may be strongly
correlated, the cause and effect
analysis is more complicated and
not as clear-cut.
• Fast urban growth doesn’t always
translate into fast GDP growth, as
shown by the graph below:
Source: Chen M, Zhang H, Liu W, Zhang W (2014) The Global Pattern of
Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades.
PLoS ONE 9(8): e103799. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103799
[http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0103799]
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
More than 50% population in Indonesia are now living in
urban areas (cities, towns, suburban) compared to rural
areas.
With more people living in urban areas
than those living in rural areas,
statistically, Indonesia is already an
“urban nation”
-- But, are we really “there” yet?
The increasing level of urbanization is
often followed by decreasing quality of life
[both in urban as well as rural areas].
-- But, is it prospering [making people
more proseperous]?
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNFPA, n.d.
Some policies prevent people from
migrating (to the city or town) [often
ironically named as “Operasi Yustisi”
despite contravening the sense of justice.
-- But, is it a violation of their rights to
better living?
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
PDB Per Kapita
disesuaikan PPP ($)
30,000.0
Notes:
Urbanization in Indonesia can be
seen as less “welfare-improving”
[represented by increase of
GDP/capita] than the one in China,
Thailand and Vietnam
25,000.0
20,000.0
15,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Tingkat Urbanisasi (%)
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Tiongkok
Source: Sarosa (forthcoming), Memahami Kota dan Urbanisasi: Menuju Transformasi Perkotaan yang Menyejahterakan,
Jakarta: Expose [data were processed from United Nation-Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA). (2016).
The 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/ (accessed 29/8/2016) and World
Bank. (2016). World Bank Open Data. http://data.worldbank.org (accessed 29/8/2016)]
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
Challenges and opportunities in making Indonesian urbanization welfare-improving
Indonesia Population by Age in 2014
Source: BPS. 2015.
There are at least four ongoing
transformations in Indonesia that can
influence (in both positive and negative
senses) the way we manage cities and
urbanization
Demographic dividend, the increasing
number/proportion of people in working/
productive ages
• They will need work opportunities and others
• They tend to move to urban areas
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
“The urbanization of poverty” phenomenon:
• From rural poor becomes urban poor
• Urbanization does not bring significant improvement of welfare
[much less quality of life] for the majority of the transforming
people [There are of course a smaller number of people who
have been able to improve their welfare as they urbanize]
• Cities tend to be unprepared to accommodate and manage the
increasingly large number of population.
• Urban infrastructure and basic services could not meet the
increasing demand (widening infrastructure gap/deficit)
• “Demographic dividend” becomes “demographic burden”
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
More than just economic prosperity: Have we been
transformed from rural to urban society yet? Are we “lost in
translation” or is this a “natural phase” in the
transformation?
Courtesy of kompas/wisnu widiantoro
Courtesy of dinalistiorini.wordpress.com
The Need for “Better Quality Urbanization”
• Now that we know and acknowledge that urbanization is inevitable, we have to make the “best
use” of this phenomenon for the improvement of people’s welfare – both in urban and rural
areas
• “Mitigation” by improving the quality of live in the rural villages is good but not enough [many
young people will still be moving to cities]. We need to improve “the quality of urbanization”.....
“Poor Quality” Urbanization
“Good Quality” Urbanization
The Need for “Better Quality
Urbanization”
o Many lost opportunities (poverty reduction, welfare
improvement, economic growth, qualified labor force,
environmental degradation) because of not having a more
coherent urbanization policies, in national and local level.
o If it is not managed well, urbanization will not bring positive
impact to many people as much as ‘the few’ who have access
and power marginalization of those powerless
o If managed well, urbanization can be a driver for development
[and even, environmental protection]
The Need for “Better Quality Urbanization”
But, how?
o Many/most cities do not have enough capacity to accommodate and
serve their current population, much less the incoming migrants…
o Many/most city governments do not have any clear and coherent
idea/policy of what should be done with urbanization in general [One
example being what to do with the growing urban informal economic
activities: accommodate or evict them?]…
o National government supports have not been well coordinated…
o …..
Challenges in Managing Urbanization
The challenges in making urbanization in Indonesia more welfare-improving can be categorized
into three different types of challenges:
Paradigmatic
Challenges
Challenges that are related to the lack of understanding and/or misconception
regarding the situation
• “urbanization is bad and therefore should be prevented..”
• “develop the village, so people will not move to the city..”
Systemic
Challenges
Challenges that relate to systems/regulations/institutions:
• Conflicting policies and regulations
• Lack of institutional supports – to help improve the capacity of local
governments and communities to deal with urbanization
• Lack of coherent national policies…
Practical
Challenges
Challenges that are practical or technical in nature:
• Technical and managerial capacity of the stakeholders to deal with
urbanization
• Other technical/practical matters
National Urban Policy
o There have been at least three attempts to develop National Urban
Policies and Strategies.
o The first two (called NUDS – National Urban Development
Strategies, in the 1980s and revised in early 2000s) were situated
in a centralized governing environment, while the last one (the
KSPPN – Kebijakan dan Strategi Pembangunan Perkotaan
Nasional) has been meant to be implemented in a more challenging
decentralized and democratic governing environment
o All of them however were limited in their legal standing (the first two
were only ministerial decrees, while the last one has been meant to
be a Government Regulation but has not gone anywhere in the past
three years due to the lack of political supports as well as the
tendency of policy-makers to think and act within their own sectors
KSPPN
• Current status: -- not clear
• Six main policies (as of 2014):
1. To create national urban system
2. To establish urban services
3. To implement urban development in
accordance to its carrying capacity,
responsive and adaptive to climate
change and disaster
4. To provide livable and adequate
housing
5. To establish urban competitiveness
6. To manage transparent, accountable,
and participatory urban governance
Source: Bappenas, 2016
But, What Kind of National Urban Policy?
Considering that Indonesia has adopted decentralized and democratic governance system within a marketoriented society/environment
Decentralized
Governance
Democratic
Governance System
Scenario 1:
with no national urban
policy
Cities will do as they
pleased but also face
problems on their-own;
national resources may be
wasted;
People theoretically can
move as they pleased but
will be restricted by “local
self-interests”
Unpredictable market
system; survival of the
fittest; Jakarta’s primacy
will be fostered
Scenario 2: with rigid and
top-down national urban
policy
People movement may be
“planned” but top-down
approach difficult to work
People’s participation is a
must – but national
processes will take time
and will be ineffective
It is an “oxymoron”
(paradoxical) – will not
work
People can participate at
all level; no need for
hierarchical process
reduce time needed to
plan
By using incentivedisincentive approach,
national policy still can
work
Scenario 3: with dynamic- Cities still have flexibility;
responsive national urban national resources better
policy
allocated; people moves
are accommodated
Market-Oriented
Approach
Example of What Should be Done: A
Clear Strategy to Reduce Urban Primacy
Now:
2
Highly
concentrated
OR
Scenario 1:
Current
Highly
decentralized
1
Scenario 2: Proposed
Decentralized Concentrations
More globally competitive urban
agglomerations (attracting
investment)…
Less environmental (eg. ecological
footprints) and infrastructure costs…
Example of What Should be Done: A
Clear Strategy to Reduce Urban Primacy
New Urban
Agglomeration
Old Primate City
(JAKARTA)
(based on existing cities)
Rural & Small Towns
Development
New Urban
Agglomeration
(to discourage rural-urban migration)
New Urban
Agglomeration
(based on existing cities)
(based on existing cities)
Rural & Small Towns
Development
(to discourage rural-urban migration)
Metropolitan Areas
based on Medium Term National Development Plan 2015-2019
The current government introduces
a concept of development from the
periphery, including supporting new
metropolitan areas outside Java
Why is it important?
Source: Bappenas, 2016
Increasing demand to alleviate
poverty through “good-quality”
urbanization
Improving regional/metropolitan
competitiveness
Reducing development gap and
inequality among regions
Bear in Mind…
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS and
What do these goals mean for cities,
urbanization and people’s welfareimprovement in Indonesia?
HABITAT III CONFERENCE and the New Urban
Agenda – how it will help improve Indonesian
cities and urbanization?
The need for a coherent National Urban Policy
Implication for Local Governments
KSPPN
NUA
SDGs
Existing Documents
Local Action Plan for
SDGs
Indonesia New Urban
Agenda
■ 5-Year Development
Plan (RPJM)
■ Annual Development
Plan (RKP)
■ Strategic Plan
■ Others
THANK YOU
[email protected]
AND THE NEED FOR A
NATIONAL URBAN POLICY
Wicaksono Sarosa
Chair, Executive Board of Kemitraan-Habitat
Chief Knowledge Worker, Ruang-Waktu Knowledge Hub for Sustainable [Urban] Development
Outline
►Understanding Urbanization – in general
and in Indonesia
►The Need for “Better Quality
Urbanization”
►Challenges in Managing Urbanization
►The Need for [More Coherent] National
Urban Policy – its various aspects
Understanding Urbanization
Causes of urbanization:
• Rural to urban migration (temporary, circular or
permanent)
• Urban area expansion (urbanizing rural
areas)
• Natural births in urban areas
URBANIZATION
or the increasing percentage of people
living in urban areas
► It is an inevitable phenomenon until it reaches the “urbanization equilibrium” – we can try to
“mitigate” urbanization by improving infrastructure, facilities and services in rural areas, but
some people will still move to urban areas
► People moves to the city to find a better life. It’s the people’s rights to seek for a better life.
► It can have bad consequences [increasing and unmet demand for housing, infrastructure,
facilities, services in urban areas], but urbanization also offers lots of opportunities
► Globally, the level of urbanization is strongly correlated with the level of economic progress of a
country [not always the case but the correlation is strong/high]
Understanding Urbanization
Notes:
• And while urbanization and per
capita GDP may be strongly
correlated, the cause and effect
analysis is more complicated and
not as clear-cut.
• Fast urban growth doesn’t always
translate into fast GDP growth, as
shown by the graph below:
Source: Chen M, Zhang H, Liu W, Zhang W (2014) The Global Pattern of
Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades.
PLoS ONE 9(8): e103799. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103799
[http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0103799]
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
More than 50% population in Indonesia are now living in
urban areas (cities, towns, suburban) compared to rural
areas.
With more people living in urban areas
than those living in rural areas,
statistically, Indonesia is already an
“urban nation”
-- But, are we really “there” yet?
The increasing level of urbanization is
often followed by decreasing quality of life
[both in urban as well as rural areas].
-- But, is it prospering [making people
more proseperous]?
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNFPA, n.d.
Some policies prevent people from
migrating (to the city or town) [often
ironically named as “Operasi Yustisi”
despite contravening the sense of justice.
-- But, is it a violation of their rights to
better living?
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
PDB Per Kapita
disesuaikan PPP ($)
30,000.0
Notes:
Urbanization in Indonesia can be
seen as less “welfare-improving”
[represented by increase of
GDP/capita] than the one in China,
Thailand and Vietnam
25,000.0
20,000.0
15,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Tingkat Urbanisasi (%)
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Tiongkok
Source: Sarosa (forthcoming), Memahami Kota dan Urbanisasi: Menuju Transformasi Perkotaan yang Menyejahterakan,
Jakarta: Expose [data were processed from United Nation-Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA). (2016).
The 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/ (accessed 29/8/2016) and World
Bank. (2016). World Bank Open Data. http://data.worldbank.org (accessed 29/8/2016)]
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
Challenges and opportunities in making Indonesian urbanization welfare-improving
Indonesia Population by Age in 2014
Source: BPS. 2015.
There are at least four ongoing
transformations in Indonesia that can
influence (in both positive and negative
senses) the way we manage cities and
urbanization
Demographic dividend, the increasing
number/proportion of people in working/
productive ages
• They will need work opportunities and others
• They tend to move to urban areas
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
“The urbanization of poverty” phenomenon:
• From rural poor becomes urban poor
• Urbanization does not bring significant improvement of welfare
[much less quality of life] for the majority of the transforming
people [There are of course a smaller number of people who
have been able to improve their welfare as they urbanize]
• Cities tend to be unprepared to accommodate and manage the
increasingly large number of population.
• Urban infrastructure and basic services could not meet the
increasing demand (widening infrastructure gap/deficit)
• “Demographic dividend” becomes “demographic burden”
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
More than just economic prosperity: Have we been
transformed from rural to urban society yet? Are we “lost in
translation” or is this a “natural phase” in the
transformation?
Courtesy of kompas/wisnu widiantoro
Courtesy of dinalistiorini.wordpress.com
The Need for “Better Quality Urbanization”
• Now that we know and acknowledge that urbanization is inevitable, we have to make the “best
use” of this phenomenon for the improvement of people’s welfare – both in urban and rural
areas
• “Mitigation” by improving the quality of live in the rural villages is good but not enough [many
young people will still be moving to cities]. We need to improve “the quality of urbanization”.....
“Poor Quality” Urbanization
“Good Quality” Urbanization
The Need for “Better Quality
Urbanization”
o Many lost opportunities (poverty reduction, welfare
improvement, economic growth, qualified labor force,
environmental degradation) because of not having a more
coherent urbanization policies, in national and local level.
o If it is not managed well, urbanization will not bring positive
impact to many people as much as ‘the few’ who have access
and power marginalization of those powerless
o If managed well, urbanization can be a driver for development
[and even, environmental protection]
The Need for “Better Quality Urbanization”
But, how?
o Many/most cities do not have enough capacity to accommodate and
serve their current population, much less the incoming migrants…
o Many/most city governments do not have any clear and coherent
idea/policy of what should be done with urbanization in general [One
example being what to do with the growing urban informal economic
activities: accommodate or evict them?]…
o National government supports have not been well coordinated…
o …..
Challenges in Managing Urbanization
The challenges in making urbanization in Indonesia more welfare-improving can be categorized
into three different types of challenges:
Paradigmatic
Challenges
Challenges that are related to the lack of understanding and/or misconception
regarding the situation
• “urbanization is bad and therefore should be prevented..”
• “develop the village, so people will not move to the city..”
Systemic
Challenges
Challenges that relate to systems/regulations/institutions:
• Conflicting policies and regulations
• Lack of institutional supports – to help improve the capacity of local
governments and communities to deal with urbanization
• Lack of coherent national policies…
Practical
Challenges
Challenges that are practical or technical in nature:
• Technical and managerial capacity of the stakeholders to deal with
urbanization
• Other technical/practical matters
National Urban Policy
o There have been at least three attempts to develop National Urban
Policies and Strategies.
o The first two (called NUDS – National Urban Development
Strategies, in the 1980s and revised in early 2000s) were situated
in a centralized governing environment, while the last one (the
KSPPN – Kebijakan dan Strategi Pembangunan Perkotaan
Nasional) has been meant to be implemented in a more challenging
decentralized and democratic governing environment
o All of them however were limited in their legal standing (the first two
were only ministerial decrees, while the last one has been meant to
be a Government Regulation but has not gone anywhere in the past
three years due to the lack of political supports as well as the
tendency of policy-makers to think and act within their own sectors
KSPPN
• Current status: -- not clear
• Six main policies (as of 2014):
1. To create national urban system
2. To establish urban services
3. To implement urban development in
accordance to its carrying capacity,
responsive and adaptive to climate
change and disaster
4. To provide livable and adequate
housing
5. To establish urban competitiveness
6. To manage transparent, accountable,
and participatory urban governance
Source: Bappenas, 2016
But, What Kind of National Urban Policy?
Considering that Indonesia has adopted decentralized and democratic governance system within a marketoriented society/environment
Decentralized
Governance
Democratic
Governance System
Scenario 1:
with no national urban
policy
Cities will do as they
pleased but also face
problems on their-own;
national resources may be
wasted;
People theoretically can
move as they pleased but
will be restricted by “local
self-interests”
Unpredictable market
system; survival of the
fittest; Jakarta’s primacy
will be fostered
Scenario 2: with rigid and
top-down national urban
policy
People movement may be
“planned” but top-down
approach difficult to work
People’s participation is a
must – but national
processes will take time
and will be ineffective
It is an “oxymoron”
(paradoxical) – will not
work
People can participate at
all level; no need for
hierarchical process
reduce time needed to
plan
By using incentivedisincentive approach,
national policy still can
work
Scenario 3: with dynamic- Cities still have flexibility;
responsive national urban national resources better
policy
allocated; people moves
are accommodated
Market-Oriented
Approach
Example of What Should be Done: A
Clear Strategy to Reduce Urban Primacy
Now:
2
Highly
concentrated
OR
Scenario 1:
Current
Highly
decentralized
1
Scenario 2: Proposed
Decentralized Concentrations
More globally competitive urban
agglomerations (attracting
investment)…
Less environmental (eg. ecological
footprints) and infrastructure costs…
Example of What Should be Done: A
Clear Strategy to Reduce Urban Primacy
New Urban
Agglomeration
Old Primate City
(JAKARTA)
(based on existing cities)
Rural & Small Towns
Development
New Urban
Agglomeration
(to discourage rural-urban migration)
New Urban
Agglomeration
(based on existing cities)
(based on existing cities)
Rural & Small Towns
Development
(to discourage rural-urban migration)
Metropolitan Areas
based on Medium Term National Development Plan 2015-2019
The current government introduces
a concept of development from the
periphery, including supporting new
metropolitan areas outside Java
Why is it important?
Source: Bappenas, 2016
Increasing demand to alleviate
poverty through “good-quality”
urbanization
Improving regional/metropolitan
competitiveness
Reducing development gap and
inequality among regions
Bear in Mind…
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS and
What do these goals mean for cities,
urbanization and people’s welfareimprovement in Indonesia?
HABITAT III CONFERENCE and the New Urban
Agenda – how it will help improve Indonesian
cities and urbanization?
The need for a coherent National Urban Policy
Implication for Local Governments
KSPPN
NUA
SDGs
Existing Documents
Local Action Plan for
SDGs
Indonesia New Urban
Agenda
■ 5-Year Development
Plan (RPJM)
■ Annual Development
Plan (RKP)
■ Strategic Plan
■ Others
THANK YOU
[email protected]