Post Parliament English 1

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF TIMOR - LESTE

General Budget of the State
2006- 07
Budget Document No1

Prepared by the Ministry of Planning and Finance
Democratic Republic of Timor - Leste

Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Charts and Tables
Part 1 - Executive Summary
The Combined Sources Budget
General Budget of the State for Timor-Leste
Petroleum Fund
Domestic Revenue
Expenses of the State
Part 2 – Combating Poverty as a National Cause
Part 3 – Economic Overview
Domestic economy

Progress in Strengthening Public Finance
Part 4 – Revenue
The Petroleum Sector
Taxes and users fees
Part 5 Petroleum Fund
Part 6 – Expenses
Introduction
Key Measures and Initiatives
Overview for the President of the Republic
Overview for the National Parliament
Overview for the Office of the Prime Minister and Presidency of the Council of Ministers
Overview for the Ministry of Defence
Overview for the Secretary of State of the Council of Ministers
Overview for the Ministry of State Administration
Overview for the Ministry of the Interior (Excluding the PNTL)
Overview for the National Police of Timor – Leste
Overview for the Ministry of Development
Overview for the Ministry of Justice
Overview for the Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Fisheries
Overview for the Ministry of Education and Culture

Overview for the Ministry of Health
Overview for the Ministry of Labour and Community Reintegration
Overview for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation
Overview for the Ministry of Planning and Finance
Overview for the Ministry of Transport and Communications
Overview for the Ministry of Public Works
Overview for the Ministry of Natural Resources, Minerals and Energy Policy
Overview for the Secretary of State of Youth and Sport
Overview for the Tribunals
Overview for the Prosecutor General of Republic
Overview for the Public Broadcasting Service of Timor-Leste
Overview Provedor of Human Rights
Overview Electridade de Timor – Leste (EDTL) (Self Funding)
Overview Ports Authority of Timor-Leste (APORTIL) (Self Funding)
Overview Civil Aviation (ANATL) (Self Funding)
Overview Institute of Equipment Management (Self Funding)
Annex 1 General Budget of the State (Including Autonomous Agencies) ($000)
Annex 2 General Budget of the State (Excluding Autonomous Agencies) ($000)
Annex 3 General Budget of the State Appropriations for 2006-07 and Estimates for 2007-08 to 2009-10 by Ministry and Division ($000)
Annex 4 Appropriations for 2006-07

Annex 5 Capital and Development Plan for Timor-Leste 2006 – 07 TO 2009 – 2010
Annex 6 Staffing Profile
Permanent Staffing
Non Civil Servant
Autonomous Entities
Annex 7 Payment for Schools 2006-07
Annex 8 Payments to Primary Schools for Student Meals 2006-07
Annex 9 User Guide
Annex 10 Prime Minister’s Budget Speech

-2-

2
3
5
5
6
8
9
9

10
12
13
14
17
17
21
22
23
23
28
42
46
50
56
60
64
70
74
79

85
91
103
109
114
120
124
131
136
140
144
147
151
153
156
160
163
166
169
172

173
174
209
218
232
232
254
256
258
291
297
298

Charts and Tables
Table 1.1 Combined Sources Budget 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
Table 1.2 Financing of the Combined Sources Budget 2005-06 até 2009-10 ($m)
Chart 1.1 Fiscal Savings of Timor-Leste 2005-06 to 2009-10
Table 1.3 General Budget of the State Timor-Leste 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
Table 1.4 Estimated Balances of the Petroleum Fund 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
Table 1.5 Estimated Petroleum Revenue and Sustainable Income

Chart 1.2 Estimated Public Sector Savings for Timor-Leste 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
Table 3.1 Selected Macro-Economic Indicators 2000-2005
Table 3.2 Public Finances for the Whole of State on a Combined Sources Basis 1999/00 to 2004/05
Table 3.3 Technical Assistance Orientation 1999/00 to 2004/05
Table 4.1 Total Revenue 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
Table 4.2 World Oil Price Assumptions ($ per Barrel)
Table 4.3 Estimated Petroleum Revenue 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
Chart 4.1 Changes in World Oil Price WTI Basis ($ Per Barrel)
Chart 4.2 Timor-Leste Petroleum Revenue 2002-03 TO2022-23
Table 4.4 Scenarios for Petroleum Revenue ($m)
Table 4.5 Domestic Revenue ($m)
Table 4.6 Fees, User Charges and Other Revenue ($m)
Table 4.7 Autonomous Agency Revenue ($m)
Table 4.8 Direct Budget Support from Development Partners ($m)
Table 5.1 Estimated Petroleum Fund Savings 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
Table 6.1 Combined Sources Budget 2005-06 to 2008-09 ($m)
Table 6.2 Budget of the State Whole of State Aggregate Figures 2005-06 to 2008-09 ($m)
Table 6.3 Budget of the State Whole of State Excluding Autonomous Agencies Aggregate Figures 2005-06 to 2008-09 ($m)
Table 6.4 Budget of the State Autonomous Agencies Aggregate Figures 2005-06 to 2008-09 ($m)
Table 6.5 2006-07 Combined Sources Budget by Ministry ($000)

Table 6.6 Grouping of Ministries within NDP Sectors
Table 6.7 General Budget of the State Total Allocations by Ministry 2006-07
Table 6.8 Key Measures of the General Budget of the State – Salaries and Wages 2006-07 to 2009-10 ($000)
Table 6.9 Key Measures of the General Budget of the State – Goods and Services 2006-07 to 2009-10 ($000)
Table 6.10 Key Measures of the General Budget of the State 2006-07 – Minor Capital to 2009-10 ($000)
Table 6.11 Key Measures of the General Budget of the State - Transfers 2006-07 to 2009-10 ($000)
Table 6.12 Total Staffing Timor-Leste 2006-07
Table 6.13 Funding Overview President of the Republic ($000)
Table 6.14 Staffing Profile President of the Republic ($000)
Table 6.15 Confirmed Donor Funding President of the Republic ($000)
Table 6.16 Funding Overview National Parliament ($000)
Table 6.17 Staffing Profile National Parliament ($000)
Table 6.18 Confirmed Donor Funding National Parliament ($000)
Table 6.19 Funding Office of the Prime Minister and Presidency of the Council of Ministers ($000)
Table 6.20 Staffing Profile Office of the Prime Minister and Presidency of the Council of Ministers
Table 6.21 Confirmed Donor Funding Office of the Prime Minister and Presidency of the Council of Ministers ($000)
Table 6.22 Funding Overview Ministry of Defence ($000)
Table 6.23 Staffing Profile Ministry of Defence ($000)
Table 6.24 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Defence ($000)
Table 6.25 Funding Overview Secretary of State of the Council of Ministers ($000)

Table 6.26 Staffing Profile Secretary of State of the Council of Ministers ($000)
Table 6.27 Funding Overview Ministry of State Administration ($000)
Table 6.28 Staffing Profile Ministry of State Administration ($000)
Table 6.29 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of State Administration ($000)
Table 6.30 Funding Overview Ministry of Interior (Excluding the PNTL) ($000)
Table 6.31 Staffing Profile Ministry of Interior (Excluding the PNTL) ($000)
Table 6.32 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Interior (Excluding the PNTL) ($000)
Table 6.33 Funding Overview of National Police of Timor – Leste ($000)
Table 6.34 Staffing Profile National Police of Timor – Leste ($000)
Table 6.35 Confirmed Donor Funding National Police of Timor – Leste ($000)
Table 6.36 Funding Overview Ministry of Development ($000)
Table 6.37 Staffing Profile Ministry of Development ($000)
Table 6.38 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Development ($000)
Table 6.39 Funding Overview Ministry of Justice ($000)
Table 6.40 Staffing Profile Ministry of Justice ($000)
Table 6.41 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Justice ($000)
Table 6.42 Funding Overview Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and fisheries ($000)
Table 6.43 Staffing Profile Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and fisheries ($000)
Table 6.44 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and fisheries ($000)
Table 6.45 Funding Overview Ministry of Education and Culture ($000)

-3-

5
5
6
7
8
8
8
13
15
16
17
18
19
19
20
20
20

21
21
21
22
23
24
24
24
25
26
27
28
32
36
39
41
42
42
42
46
46
46
51
51
51
56
57
57
61
61
64
65
65
70
70
71
74
74
74
79
80
80
86
86
86
92
92
92
104

Table 6.46 Staffing Profile Ministry of Education and Culture ($000)
Table 6.47 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Education and Culture ($000)
Table 6.48 Funding Overview Ministry of Health ($000)
Table 6.49 Staffing Profile Ministry of Health ($000)
Table 6.50 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Health ($000)
Table 6.51 Funding Overview Ministry of Labour and Community Reintegration ($000)
Table 6.52 Staffing Profile Ministry of Labour and Community Reintegration ($000)
Table 6.53 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Labour and Community Reintegration ($000)
Table 6.54 Funding Overview Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation ($000)
Table 6.55 Staffing Profile Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation ($000)
Table 6.56 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation ($000)
Table 6.57 Funding Overview Ministry of Planning and Finance (Excluding Whole of State Appropriations ($000)
Table 6.58 Staffing Profile Ministry of Planning and Finance ($000)
Table 6.59 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Planning and Finance ($000)
Table 6.60 Funding Overview Ministry of Transport and Communications ($000)
Table 6.61 Staffing Profile Ministry of Transport and Communications ($000)
Table 6.62 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Transport and Communications ($000)
Table 6.63 Funding Overview Ministry of Public Works ($000)
Table 6.64 Staffing Profile Ministry of Public Works ($000)
Table 6.65 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Public Works ($000)
Table 6.66 Funding Overview Ministry of Natural Resources, Minerals and Energy Policy ($000)
Table 6.67 Staffing Profile Ministry of Natural Resources, Minerals and Energy Policy ($000)
Table 6.68 Confirmed Donor Funding Ministry of Natural Resources, Minerals and Energy Policy ($000)
Table 6.69 Funding Overview Secretary of State of Youth and Sport ($000)
Table 6.70 Staffing Profile Secretary of State of Youth and Sport ($000)
Table 6.71 Funding Overview of the Tribunals ($000)
Table 6.72 Staffing Profile Tribunals ($000)
Table 6.73 Confirmed Donor Funding Tribunals ($000)
Table 6.74 Funding Overview of the Prosecutor General of the Republic ($000)
Table 6.75 Staffing Profile Prosecutor General of the Republic ($000)
Table 6.76 Funding Overview Public Broadcasting Service of Timor-Leste ($000)
Table 6.77 Staffing Profile Public Broadcasting Service of Timor-Leste ($000)
Table 6.78 Funding Overview of the Provedor of Human Rights ($000)
Table 6.79 Staffing Profile Provedor of Human Rights ($000)
Table 6.80 Confirmed Donor Funding Provedor of Human Rights ($000)
Table 6.81 Funding Overview for Electricidade de Timor-Leste (EDTL – Self Funding) ($000)
Table 6.82 Staffing Profile Electricidade de Timor-Leste (EDTL – Self Funding) ($000)
Table 6.83 Funding Overview for Ports Authority of Timor-Leste (APORTIL) (Self Funding) ($000)
Table 6.84 Staffing Profile Ports Authority of Timor-Leste ($000)
Table 6.85 Funding Overview for Civil Aviation of Timor-Leste (ANATL) (Self Funding) ($000)
Table 6.86 Staffing Profile Civil Aviation of Timor-Leste (ANATL) (Self Funding)
Table 6.87 Funding Overview for Institute of Equipment Management of Timor-Leste (IGEM-Self Funding) ($000)

-4-

104
104
109
110
110
115
115
115
120
120
121
125
125
125
131
132
132
136
136
137
140
141
141
144
144
147
147
147
151
151
153
153
156
156
156
160
160
163
163
166
166
169

Part 1 - Executive Summary
The Combined Sources Budget
The Combined Sources Budget for 2006-07 is estimated to be $452.3m, this consists of $315.9m in expenditure
proposed by the State Budget and $136.4m in confirmed donor financing by development partners. In the following for
years from 2006-07 to 2009-10 the total expenditure on a combined sources basis is estimated to be $1,330.4m,
$1,104.9 from the State Budget and $225.4m including confirmed financing from development partners.
Table 1.1
Combined Sources Budget 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)

Total Revenue
Total Expenditure
Fiscal Balance
Non Petroleum Fiscal Balance
Donor Funding Confirmed
Total Combined Sources Spending
Further Funding Required

05-06
(m )
476.5
142.3
334.2
(84.6)
105.1
247.4
32.9

06-07
(m )
739.2
315.9
423.3
(260.1)
136.4
452.3
192.3

07-08
(m )
1,033.6
265.4
768.2
(204.2)
54.3
319.6
214.1

08-09
(m )
1,117.0
263.8
853.2
(208.9)
24.5
288.3
211.5

09-10
(m )
1,086.1
259.9
826.2
(201.4)
10.3
270.2
225.4

Total 4
years
3,975.9
1,104.9
2,870.9
(874.5)
225.4
1,330.4
843.3

Table 1.1 clearly illustrates the total funding required by Timor-Leste as identified in the Sector Investment Packages
(SIP) and that an amount in excess of $843.3m in relation to the same period to guarantee that Timor-Leste stays on
the path to achieve the objectives of the National Development Plan.
Table 1.2
Financing of the Combined Sources Budget 2005-06 até 2009-10 ($m)

Revenue

05-06

06-07

07-08

08-09

09-10

(m )

(m )

(m )

(m )

(m )

Total 4
years

247.4

452.3

319.6

288.3

270.2

1,330.4

Domestic Revenue

36.7

39.1

42.9

46.1

48.9

177.0

Petroleum Revenue

84.6

Transfer from the Petroleum Fund

-

-

-

-

-

-

260.1

204.2

208.9

201.4

874.5

Direct Budget Support

10.3

10.3

10.0

-

-

20.3

Autonomous Agency Revenue

10.7

6.5

8.3

8.8

9.6

33.1

105.1

136.4

54.3

24.5

10.3

225.4
1,330.4

Confirmed Donor Funding
Expenses
Recurrent Expenditure
State Budget Funding
Confirmed Donor Funding

247.4

452.3

319.6

288.3

270.2

167.3

300.0

207.4

201.6

201.9

911.0

103.6

196.2

177.1

184.3

195.7

753.3

63.7

103.8

30.3

17.3

6.2

157.7

80.1

152.3

112.2

86.7

68.2

419.4

State Budget Funding

38.7

119.7

88.3

79.5

64.1

351.6

Confirmed Capital Funding

41.4

32.5

24.0

7.1

4.1

67.7
843.3

Capital Expenditure

Further Funding Required
Recurrent Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
Total

-5-

32.9

192.3

214.1

211.5

225.4

25.8

71.8

80.2

74.8

66.0

292.9

7.1

120.4

133.9

136.7

159.3

550.4

280.3

644.6

533.7

499.8

495.5

2,173.6

Table 1.2 illustrates clearly that increase in financing of the increase in expenditure is primarily due to the increase in
the Timor-Leste State Budget. The increase in available sustainable income from the high level of petroleum receipts
provided for an increase in $173.6m in expenditure by the State, an increase of 122% in relation to the previous year.
Confirmed financing by development partners increased by $31.3 m (30%)
Expenditure on a combined sources basis shows a decline after 2006-07, this is basically the result of the decline in
confirmed donor financing in the future. At the time of publication confirmed donor financing for 2009-10 was $10.3m.

General Budget of the State for Timor-Leste
Table 1.3 shows the fiscal position of the Budget of the State of Timor-Leste for 2005-06 is estimated at $334.2m in
2005-06 rising to $423.3m in 2006-07, and reaching $826.2m in 2009-10. In 2005-06 the non petroleum fiscal
estimated is expected to be a deficit of $84.6m which will be financed by cash balances held in the Treasury account,
the Consolidated Fund of Timor-Leste (CFET). The non petroleum fiscal balance for 2006-07 is estimated to be a
deficit of $260.1 m which will be financed by the Petroleum Fund.
Chart 1.1
Fiscal Savings of Timor-Leste 2005-06 to 2009-10
1,000
Whole of State Fiscal Balance
Whole of State Fiscal Balance Non Petroleum
800

600

$m

400

200

-

-200

-400
05-06

06-07

07-08
Fiscal Year

-6-

08-09

09-10

Table 1.3
General Budget of the State Timor-Leste 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
05-06
(m )
General Governm ent
Revenue
Petroleum Revenue
Taxes and Royalties
Petroleum Fund Interest
Other Petroleum Revenue

06-07
(m )

07-08
(m )

08-09
(m )

Total 4
years

09-10
(m )

465.8
418.8
386.0
16.3
16.5

732.7
683.3
635.6
39.6
8.1

1,025.3
972.4
896.9
69.6
5.9

1,108.2
1,062.1
947.8
108.4
5.9

1,076.5
1,027.6
873.0
148.7
5.9

3,942.8
3,745.5
3,353.3
366.4
25.8

Domestic Revenue
Direct Tax
Indirect Tax
User Fees

36.7
6.6
20.4
9.7

39.1
7.9
21.4
9.8

42.9
8.2
24.2
10.5

46.1
8.7
25.9
11.5

48.9
9.5
28.0
11.4

177.0
34.3
99.5
43.2

Direct Budget Support

10.3

10.3

10.0

-

-

20.3

123.6
28.8
52.7
5.6
36.7
-

289.8
37.4
103.9
16.9
113.3
18.2

243.0
38.7
94.0
7.1
85.9
17.3

241.3
40.0
97.8
7.8
77.2
18.4

236.7
44.7
100.8
9.7
61.8
19.6

1,010.8
160.9
396.6
41.5
338.2
73.6

7.9
5.9
2.0

19.7
13.3
6.4

14.2
11.9
2.4

13.9
11.5
2.4

13.7
11.3
2.4

61.5
48.0
13.3

334.2

423.2

768.1

853.1

826.1

2,870.5

18.6
7.9
10.7

26.2
19.7
6.5

22.5
14.2
8.3

22.7
13.9
8.8

23.3
13.7
9.6

94.6
61.5
33.1

18.6
0.7
14.9
1.0
2.0
-

26.1
0.8
18.1
0.7
6.4
-

22.4
0.7
18.6
0.7
2.4
-

22.6
0.8
18.7
0.7
2.4
-

23.2
0.9
19.1
0.8
2.4
-

94.2
3.3
74.5
2.9
13.5
-

142.3

0.1
315.9

0.1
265.4

0.1
263.8

0.1
259.9

0.4
1,104.9

334.2
(84.6)

423.3
(260.1)

768.2
(204.2)

853.2
(208.9)

826.2
(201.4)

2,870.9
(874.5)

260.1

204.2

208.9

201.4

874.5

Expenses
Salaries and Wages
Goods and Services
Minor Capital
Capital and Development
Current Transfers
Subsidies
Operational Subsidies for Autonomous Agencies
Capital Investment for Autonomous Agencies
General Governm ent Budget Balance
Autonom ous Agencies
Revenue
Subsidies from General Government
Autonomous Agencies Charges
Expenses
Salaries and Wages
Goods and Services
Minor Capital
Capital and Development
Current Transfers
Autonom ous Agencies Budget Balance
Total Expenditure - Whole of Governm ent
Fiscal balances
Whole of State Fiscal Balance
Whole of State Fiscal Balance Non Petroleum
Petroleum Fund Requirem ent
Cash Required from the Petroleum Fund

na

-7-

Petroleum Fund
As of 31 March 2006 the market value of the Petroleum Fund was $508.1m. The opening balance of the fund
transferred at the beginning of September 2005 was $204.6 m. For the period September 2005 through March 2005
payments from the petroleum operations total $300.5m, where as the return from the investments in this period was
$3.2m. The estimated balance of the fund at the end of 2005-06 is estimated to be $623.4m.
Financing of the Budget for 2006-07 will require a transfer from the Petroleum Fund to the Treasury Account (CFET) of
$260.1m.
Table 1.4
Estimated Balances of the Petroleum Fund 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
05-06
(m )
204.6
402.5
16.3
623.4

Opening Balanc e
Peteroleum Rev enue
Interes t
Withdraw l
Clos ing Balanc e

06-07
(m )
623.4
643.7
39.6
260.1
1,046.7

07-08
(m )
1,046.7
902.8
69.6
204.2
1,814.9

08-09
(m )
1,814.9
953.7
108.4
208.9
2,668.1

09-10
(m )
2,668.1
878.9
148.7
201.4
3,494.3

The petroleum wealth, including that estimated to be in the petroleum fund as at 30 June 2006 is calculated at $9.4
billion, the sustainable level of petroleum income for the 2006-07 fiscal year is estimated at $283m. The withdrawal of
$260.1m is below the sustainable petroleum income level, the estimates of the Government show that financing
required for the period 2006-07 to 2009-10 is below the level of sustainable income. This is illustrated in Table 1.5 and
Chart 1.1
Table 1.5
Estimated Petroleum Revenue and Sustainable Income
05-06
(m )
271.4
0.0

Sustainable Revenue
Estimated Withdraw ls

06-07
(m )
283.3
260.1

07-08
(m )
290.4
204.2

08-09
(m )
297.2
208.9

09-10
(m )
303.3
201.4

Chart 1.2
Estimated Public Sector Savings for Timor-Leste 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
350

300

250

$m

200

150

100

50

0
05-06

06-07

07-08

08-09

Fiscal Year
Sustainable Revenue

-8-

Estimated Withdraw ls

09-10

Domestic Revenue
Tax rates and fees will generally remain unchanged. Non-petroleum revenue is estimated to generally increase in line
with the growth in the non-oil economy. Improvements in the collection of some taxes and fees will, however, lead to a
stronger growth in some of the revenues.

Expenses of the State
The State of Timor-Leste is estimated to spend $315.9m1, of which almost $120m consists of Capital Development
investments. The State will also transfer almost $18.2m to provide Public Grants to schools and community groups
and Personal Benefit Payments to veteran combatants of the Independence movement which will have immediate
economic benefits. A significant increase on the previous year in all categories of expenditure will be realized in 200607, including:
as set out in Table 6.2, Budget of the State, page 23
•

Salaries and Wages $8.8m (30%)

•

Goods and Services $54.5m (81%)

•

Minor Capital $11.1m (171%)

•

Capital and Development $81m (209%)

Additionally there is a new category of expenditure in 2006-07, Public Transfers ($18.2m), shown as a new line of
expenditure in Goods and Services. These transfers consist of two forms of expenditure, public grants and personal
benefit payments. Public grants are monies which provided amongst others, schools for small repairs and organised
civil society groups to execute small development projects.

1

as set out in Table 6.2, Budget of the State, page 23

-9-

Part 2 – Combating Poverty as a National Cause
Timor-Leste has made impressive gains since Independence in its transition from a post-conflict country. Most of the
institutions provided for in the Constitution have now been established. Capacity building programs for institutional and
human development have been expanded, and there has been good progress in providing growing numbers of people
with access to education and health services. Moreover, in the past two years the economy has begun to recover from
the contraction that followed the departure of large numbers of UN and other personnel beginning in 2002. Non-oil
gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by about 2% in real terms in 2005. There has been a
significant increase in food production since the drought in 2002/03 that has contributed to the decline in domestic
inflation and reduced levels of food imports in the past two years. With continued good performance in agriculture, and
a large increase in public spending, the non-oil GDP growth rate is expected to rise to about 5% in 2006.
Despite these impressive gains, the fact is that far too many people remain in poverty, or remain vulnerable to poverty
and food insecurity. With the prospect of substantially larger financial resources from oil and gas revenues, the
Government believes that the Nation must now be mobilized to combat persistent widespread poverty. Among the
many challenges that face the Nation, the following stand out.
•

High levels of poverty, especially in rural areas, where there is continued heavy dependence on subsistence
agriculture and vulnerability to food shortages

•

Large numbers of people who still do not have access to basic services of adequate quality, including
education, health, safe water and adequate sanitation

•

Insufficient productive employment opportunities for the rapidly growing labor force

•

Weak private sector and low levels of private investment needed for job creation

•

Poor infrastructure services in combination with rapid urbanization

•

Inadequate human resources and institutional capacities

The Government has a four-pronged strategy for poverty reduction:
•

promoting opportunities for the poor;

•

improving access of the poor to basic social services;

•

enhancing security, including reducing vulnerability to shocks, and improving food security; and

•

empowering the poor and vulnerable groups.

A stronger economic growth performance is central to the campaign to combat poverty. International experience over
the past half century indicates that economic growth is the single most important factor that influences poverty
reduction outcomes. In the year ahead, the Government will launch a major step-up in public spending that, in
combination with rising levels of private investment, will lift economic growth to 7-8 % a year from 2010. Given that
population and the labour force will continue to grow rapidly for another decade or more, the Government believes that
a non-oil GDP growth rate of 7% a year or more in real terms will be required to ensure a sustained decline in the
incidence of poverty in Timor-Leste.
Domestic and export markets are both expected to play an important role in providing the demand basis for
accelerated growth. A major increase in government spending in the next five years will be an important source of
domestic demand that, in combination with rising real household incomes, will have important implications for local
business activities. Ongoing programs to improve the business climate and encourage private investment will be
intensified. Increased levels of private investment in a range of opportunities that produce goods and services for the
international market will also play an increasingly important role. These include further development of commercial
agriculture for export markets, development of the near-shore and onshore oil and gas industry that will also have
important multiplier effects for the local economy, and steady growth in services such as tourism.
The second feature of the program is a large increase in levels of public and private investment that will be needed to
underpin sustained strong economic growth. At the present time, investment levels in the country are equivalent to
about 20% of non-oil GDP. Through prudent use of domestic and petroleum revenues, continued support from
Development Partners and an aggressive program to promote private investment, the Government aims to raise the

- 10 -

investment level to somewhere in the range of 40% of non-oil GDP by 2010. International experience indicates that
with continued sound macroeconomic management, these levels of investment will permit sustained strong economic
growth, increased productive employment opportunities, and declining levels of poverty.
The third key element of the national campaign to combat poverty is increased emphasis on promoting greater balance
in the development of the country. This report sets out the main principles that will guide the Government’s approach to
achieving a more equitable balance in development. These are as follows:
•

The benefits of strong economic growth must be broadly shared among all groups in society regardless of their
geographic location.

•

There is a need to promote several growth poles within the country to slow the growth in population in and
around Dili and create a more balanced pattern of urbanization.

•

There must be continued strong emphasis on improved access to basic services throughout the country, in
both rural areas and small towns. These include health and education services, improved water supply and
sanitation, electricity and increased access to transport and communications services at affordable costs.

•

The bulk of the poverty in the country is in rural areas and is heavily concentrated among households that
depend primarily on subsistence farming for their livelihood. There would be strong emphasis on programs that
provide these families with increased opportunities for Participation in the monetized Parte of the economy.

•

There is a need for improved access to financial services, including microfinance programs for the poor that
can facilitate production of marketable surpluses and involvement in trading activities. A more extensive
banking network will be essential for sustained strong growth of the business community as well.

•

The various initiatives that promote growth and employment must be complemented with targeted interventions
that will afford additional protection to vulnerable groups, including those affected by seasonable variability. A
number of programs are already underway. These are to be expanded.

The fourth element of the strategy for poverty reduction is continued prudence in macroeconomic management that will
ensure a stable environment for growth and investment. The Government is committed to the prudent management of
the increasingly large revenues that will flow from the development of the country’s oil and gas resources. On many
occasions, the Government has reiterated the importance that it attaches to avoiding the mistakes made by other
resource rich countries that have led to macroeconomic instability and worse. Consistent with this commitment to
sound economic management of the country’s rich resource endowment, the Government has put in place a savings
policy that will ensure effective management of petroleum revenues. Central to effective implementation of this policy is
the Petroleum Fund, which was established in August 2005, and which is widely regarded as an application by TimorLeste of best international practice.
The fifth component of the strategy is a continued strong emphasis on building institutional and human capacities at
both the national and local levels. It is clear that the capacities of the country to finance high priority development
programs aimed at poverty reduction and improved well-being throughout the Nation now exceed capacities for
effective implementation of these programs. The Government is pursuing a three-pronged approach in addressing this
problem. First, notwithstanding the improved financing capacities of the country, Timor-Leste’s Development Partners
continue to have a very important role in helping to build these implementation capacities through direct support and by
bringing to bear experience and lessons learned from other developing countries. Second, to overcome
implementation constraints in the immediate future, the Government is considering greater use of international
contractors who, in partnership with the local business community, can give an immediate boost to domestic capacities
for program implementation. Third, the Government is redoubling efforts to build institutional and human capacities
within the country, with particular attention being given to these capacities at a sub-national level. Achieving a more
balanced and equitable pattern of development will require that local governments and civil society play a larger role in
the national fight against poverty.

- 11 -

Part 3 – Economic Overview
The state of the world economy is generally good. Even if growth in 2005 was somewhat lower than the previous year
the world output grew at close to 5 per cent which is above trend. Growth is expected to remain at this level in 2006
and 2007.
The sustained strong global growth, in particular in Asia, has led to higher commodity prices. Demand for petroleum
has been particularly strong and markets seem to have priced in a structural change in the balance between demand
and supply, bringing the futures prices up to unprecedented levels. The International Energy Agency assesses both
upstream and downstream investments to be below desirable levels. Recently increased geopolitical uncertainties in
Iraq and Iran, and threats to oil production in Nigeria have contributed to high and volatile oil prices. Contracts of West
Texas Intermediate in 2011 were (beginning of May) traded at about $US68 per barrel.
Global imbalances are increasing. The current account of the United States of America has continued to rise, whereas
some of the major Asian economies continue to run significant surpluses. These imbalances are not sustainable and
rebalancing of demand across regions might have significant consequences for exchange rates, with the U.S. dollar
depreciating from current levels and currencies in surplus countries, such as some Asian countries, may appreciate.
Unlike previous periods of high growth, the inflationary impact has been modest and monetary policy has been
accommodating. Recently interest rates in a number of countries have, however, been increased. In the United States
short term interest rates are 2 percentage points higher than in the beginning of 2005. Interbank rates (3 months) were
5 per cent at the beginning of May 2006. Long term interest rates are more stable and the yields on 10 year US
Government bonds were 5 per cent at the beginning of May 2006.
There is continued strong development in our part of the world. Growth in China this year is expected to be close to 10
per cent, which is the same level as in 2004 and 2005. GDP in ASEAN-4, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and
Malaysia, grew slightly more than 5 per cent in 2005, a level that is expected to be maintained in 2006. Primarily due to
higher energy prices inflation in these countries is expected to increase from a relatively high level of 7.5 per cent to
closer to 9 per cent in 2006. Inflation in Indonesia, which was 10.5 per cent in 2005, is expected to be about 14 per
cent in 2006. Growth in Australia is expected to be relatively good, about 3 per cent in 2006, and inflation is expected
to remain around 2.7 per cent. At the beginning of May Australia’s central bank increased its official interest rate a
quarter percentage points to 5.75 per cent, as strong growth and rising price pressures threatened to accelerate
inflation.
The strong performance of the world economy has a substantial positive impact on Timor-Leste. Not only are
petroleum revenues affected, growth in demand and increasing prices for raw materials may have an impact on the
development of Timor-Leste’s other natural resources.
The development of the international financial markets has an impact on the Timor-Leste economy. As the US dollar is
the legal tender of Timor-Leste, the domestic credit market is affected when there is a change in US interest rates, and
the international value of the US dollar. As discussed above US interest rates have increased, in particular for short
term loans and deposits. This has lead to increased cost of borrowing in Timor-Leste. On the other hand the Petroleum
Fund is invested in US government bonds with 0-5 year maturity, and the return on these investments are somewhat
higher than a year ago.
The international value of the US dollar has been fairly stable, but - because of the high inflation in Indonesia - the real
exchange rate of Timor-Leste has depreciated.

- 12 -

Domestic economy
Table 3.1
Selected Macro-Economic Indicators 2000-2005
Indicator

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Population (m id-year in '000)

821.0

846.0

872.0

898.0

923.2

952.2

Non Oil GDP ($US m )
Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries

81.5

88.6

93.9

93.5

99.1

105.2

Non Farm Private

98.2

107.9

107.4

106.2

108.0

110.5

Public Sector

53.1

80.4

82.2

84.2

88.6

98.3

United Nations

83.4

91.5

60.3

38.6

28.0

17.0

316.2

368.4

343.8

322.5

323.7

331.0

Non Oil GDP Grow th (% p.a.)

13.7%

16.5%

-6.7%

-6.2%

0.4%

2.3%

Non Oil GDP at Current Prices

316.2

367.9

343.4

335.7

338.6

349.9

Total Non Oil GDP

Inflation
Non-Oil GDP Deflator (% p.a.)

3.0%

0.1%

0.1%

4.3%

0.5%

1.0%

Consumer Price Index (% p.a.)

3.0%

3.6%

-0.4%

0.1%

0.8%

1.8%

at 2000 Constant Prices

385

435

394

359

351

348

At Current Prices

385

435

394

374

367

367

Public

97.5

115.2

91.3

82

52.4

66.4

Private

21.3

30.2

27.6

23

7.5

7.5

118.8

145.4

118.9

105

59.9

73.9

37.6%

39.5%

34.6%

31.3%

17.7%

21.1%

Non Oil GDP per Capita ($US)

Fixed Investm ent at Current Prices ($USm )

Total Fixed Capital Formation
Total Investment as % of Non Oil GDP
Internationational Trade ($USm )
Merchandise Exports

1.0

4.0

6.0

7.3

7.9

8.1

Merchandise Imports

82.4

86.5

92.6

101

113.3

101.6

-81.4

-82.5

-86.6

-93.7

-105.4

-93.5

Trade Balance

Over the past two years, there has been a steady improvement in the macroeconomic framework of the country and
encouraging signs of a recovery from the sharp economic contraction in 2002 and 2003 that stemmed from the
withdrawal of UN personnel. As Table 2 indicates, non-oil GDP is estimated to have increased by about 2% in real
terms last year. The recovery has been helped by a strong performance in food production in the agriculture sector
following the drought in FY2002/03, and substantial growth in bank lending to the private sector. Credit to the private
sector rose from 2% of non-oil GDP at end 2002 to 25% at end 2005, made possible by a notable increase in demand
and time deposits in the banking system. This measure of broad money supply has increased from $20 million in 2000
to about $95 million at end 2005, equivalent to about 28% of non-oil GDP. The past year has also seen a significant
increase in recurrent spending by the Government that has stimulated domestic economic activity. Macroeconomic
stability has been further strengthened by a decline in domestic inflation, with the consumer price index for Timor-Leste
increasing by a total of less than 3% in the past three years. External competitiveness has also improved with the
depreciation of the $US in real terms. The real effective exchange rate vis-à-vis Timor-Leste’s main trading partners,
Australia and Indonesia, is now at the same level as it was at end 2002.
However, the pace of recovery has been restrained by a sharp decline in the level of fixed investment in the past four
years. From the peak of $145 million in 2001 (equal to 40% of non-oil GDP), fixed capital formation is estimated to
have declined to about $60 million in 2004 – equivalent to about 18% of non-oil GDP. Last year saw the beginnings of
a recovery in capital spending as the Government placed increased emphasis on the role of construction activity as a
means of creating employment throughout the economy and a number of new private investment projects got
underway.
But the fact is that non-oil GDP per capita is still very low. From the peak of $435 per capita in 2001, non-oil value
added per person declined to about $365 in 2004-2005. The contraction in economic activity and sharp reductions in
capital spending have led to increased under-employment and unemployment. Although there are no up-to-date

- 13 -

surveys of the incidence of income poverty in the country, the weak growth performance, together with an annual
increase in population of 3%, has almost certainly led to a rise in the incidence of income poverty. Surveys in 2001
indicated that about 40% of the population – almost 335,000 people – was below the income poverty line. Informal
estimates suggest that perhaps 41% of the population may now be below the poverty line – an increase of some
50,000 people since 2001.

Progress in Strengthening Public Finance
An important achievement since the restoration of Independence has been the steady improvement in the public
finances of the country. Table 3.2 provides a summary of receipts and expenditures on a combined sources basis for
the past six years. A number of important points emerge:
•

There has been a steady increase in tax and non-tax revenues of the government to $42.1m last fiscal
year – equivalent to 12.2% of non-oil GDP. This revenue performance is only marginally lower than the
average for low income developing countries around the world.

•

Petroleum revenues rose sharply last year to $265m as a result of rising production from the Bayu Undan
field and higher world prices for petroleum.

•

Recurrent spending on a combined sources basis has levelled off in the past three years, averaging about
$180m a year. There has, however, been a steady increase in CFET recurrent expenditures, which
accounted for 37% of total recurrent outlays last year. A further sharp rise in the share funded by CFET is
expected this fiscal year.

•

CFET funding of recurrent expenditures last year was equivalent to about 19% of non-oil GDP – a level
that is comparable to the average for all low income developing countries around the world.

•

Capital expenditures by CFET (net of transfers to BPA and other entities) have remained at about $12m a
year for the past three years – equivalent to about 3.6% of non-oil GDP. Donor funded capital expenditures
have declined from the high levels of FY2000/01 and FY2001/02. The Government is concerned about the
decline in public investment on a combined sources basis and is taking steps to increase these outlays in
the coming years to lay the foundations for a stronger growth performance in the economy.

•

In the past four years, total public spending on a combined sources basis has levelled off at about $235m
a year. In the past three years, there has been a 7% decline in real terms in total spending on a combined
sources basis (at FY2004/05 prices). The failure to increase the real level of public expenditures is a
matter of major concern for Government. Steps are being taken to reverse this trend.

- 14 -

Table 3.2
Public Finances for the Whole of State on a Combined Sources Basis 1999/00 to 2004/05
Indicator

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

Governm ent Revenues
Domestic Tax and Non Tax Revenue

2.0

13.6

19.9

19.1

29.2

34.1

12.9

10.7

29.4

41.3

265

Autonomous Agency Revenues

1.4

4.5

5

5.6

8

Interest Income

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.1

2.7

2.0

28.4

35.7

53.7

76.2

309.8

18.9

24.0

31.6

47.0

51.8

53.3

5.2

10.1

8.9

9.6

10.7

12.5

66.2

97.8

110.6

122.0

123.9

111.6

90.3

131.9

151.1

178.6

186.4

177.4

Petroleum Royalties and Taxes

Total Government Revenue
Public Expenditure
Recurrent Expenditure
Central Govermnment
Autonomous Agencies
Donor Financed Expenses
Sub Total
Capital Expenditures
Central Governmment

10.90

Autonomous Agencies
Donor Financed Expenses
Sub Total
Current and Capital Transfers (net)
Overall Balance

5.20

11.30

13.30

9.80

11.70

1

0.5

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

13.4

50.2

69.5

48.3

40.6

42.3

25.3

55.9

81.0

61.9

50.6

54.3

0

8.5

6.2

4.2

3.7

58.8

-113.6

-167.9

-202.6

-191.0

-164.5

19.3

Financing
United Nations Contributions
Direct Budget Support from Donors
Direct Donor Funding
Changes in Cash Balances
Total Funding

33

27.7

5.4

2.6

3.9

17.3

32.5

34.8

34.2

79.6

148

180.1

170.3

164.5

153.9

-1.6

-11.7

-0.2

-11.8

-34.8

-207.4

113.6

167.9

202.6

191

164.5

-19.3
12.2%

Mem o Item s
Doemestic Revenue as a % of GDP
Budget Recurrent as % of Total Recurrent
Budget Recurrent as % of Non Oil GDP

0.7%

4.4%

6.9%

7.1%

10.3%

26.7%

25.9%

26.8%

31.7%

33.5%

37.1%

8.2%

10.0%

11.4%

16.7%

18.4%

19.1%

Budget Capital as % oif Non Oil GDP

4.1%

1.7%

3.2%

4.0%

2.9%

3.5%

Total Combined Sources Expenditure

115.6

187.8

232.1

240.5

237

231.7

Cash and Trust Acct Balances (End of Year
Noil GDP at Current Prices

1.6

16.9

22

37

75.3

341.6

293.2

342.1

355.7

339.6

339.1

344.1

The level of development and technical assistance actually peaked in FY2001/02 at about $180 million. There has
been a steady decline in these inflows since then as a number of donors active in the early period brought their
programs to a close. Table 3.3 indicates that the amount of development and technical assistance per capita peaked in
the same year at $225. There has been a steady decline in per capita assistance since that time. As the subsequent
discussion of prospects for donor assistance indicates, the Government expects that this trend will continue.

- 15 -

Table 3.3
Technical Assistance Orientation 1999/00 to 2004/05
1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

Developm ent and Techcnical Assistance
On Budget

72.3

118.1

147

139.3

134.6

Off Budget

7.3

29.9

33

31

29.9

18.1

79.6

148

180

170.3

164.5

153.9

Sub Total

135.8

82

29.6

11.9

3.5

3.1

1.1

35.6

31.6

22.7

32.5

34.8

34.2

UN PKF

65.6

231.1

145

104.4

74.7

12.9

UN POL

33.1

51.9

45.4

26.7

15.7

5.1

Humanitarian Assistance
Budget and Commodity Suppport

Donor Administrative Expenses

1.1

7

4.9

4.6

7.5

5.2

Total Assistance

297

499.2

409.9

342

300.3

212.4

99

185

225

213

206

192

Mem o Item
Development Assistance Per Capita

- 16 -

Part 4 – Revenue
The Petroleum Sector
Table 4.1
Total Revenue 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)

Total Re ve nue
Petroleum Rev enue
Domes tic Rev enue
A utonomous A genc ies
Direc t Budget Support

05-06
(m )
476.5
418.8
36.7
10.7
10.3

06-07
(m )
739.2
683.3
39.1
6.5
10.3

07-08
(m )
1,033.6
972.4
42.9
8.3
10.0

08-09
(m )
1,117.0
1,062.1
46.1
8.8
-

09-10
Total 4 ye ar s
(m )
(m )
1,086.1
3,975.9
1,027.6
3,745.5
48.9
177.0
9.6
33.1
20.3

Petroleum Production and Exploration
Currently there are two fields in operation, both of them in the Joint Development Area. The Elang Kakatua North is
expected to be in its final stages of production whereas production on the Bayu-Undan field is in its early stages. The
pipeline from Bayu-Undan to Darwin is in operation and the first cargo of LNG was shipped from the Darwin plant in
February 2006. Compared to the assumption in the 2005/06 Budget the operator has increased the reserve estimate
by about 45 per cent and the field is expected to produce for another 20 years, or even longer.
The government has signed an agreement with Australia where the revenues from the Greater Sunrise field will be split
evenly between Timor-Leste and Australia. This agreement will be submitted to Parliament for ratification. Licenses of
acreages on the exclusive Timor-Leste offshore jurisdiction are planned to be awarded in May and further licenses in
the Joint Development Area will be awarded later in the year. The government also plans to award licenses for
exploration onshore.

Petroleum Revenues, Petroleum Wealth and Sustainable Income
Due to higher oil production and high oil prices petroleum revenues in the current fiscal year will be higher than
assumed in the Mid-Year Budget Update. Assuming that oil prices (West Texas Intermediate) will average $58 during
2006/07 fiscal year the oil revenues are estimated at $643m, and will remain high during the coming four year term.

Review of methodology
Oil price assumption in the 2005/06 budget papers were based on the futures prices observed in the market. Prices in
the Bayu-Undan contracts are, however, not related to these prices but to the highly volatile spot market prices.
Futures prices are at an all time high, reflecting the fact that growth in demand for energy for a while has been higher
than growth in production. Geopolitical uncertainty has also had an impact on these prices. For 2006 the highly
respected International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a higher growth in production than in demand, and it expects
a better balance between supply and demand in the years ahead than seen over the past year. If the perceived
geopolitical uncertainty is lower, a significant downwards adjustment of oil prices should not be ruled out. IEA
forecasts oil prices in 2010 at $44 [1], whereas the futures prices are about $69 (prices at the beginning of May).
Against this background the Ministry of Planning and Finance uses the IEA prices for calculating the Petroleum
Wealth[2].
The operator on the Bayu-Undan field, ConocoPhillips, has submitted three scenarios for production on this field. In the
“base” case the chances of a higher production are approximately in line with the chances of a lower production. In the
“high” case the chances of a higher production are 10 per cent, whereas the chances of a lower production are 90 per
cent. In the “low” case the chances of a lower production are estimated to be 10 per cent. Against the parameters
specified in the Petroleum Fund Act for calculating the Petroleum Wealth (in particular the interest rate for discounting
the cash flow) it seems prudent to use the low case production when calculating the cash flow.
In calculating the Petroleum Wealth only fields in production are included. As there is no development plan for Greater
Sunrise yet, potential Timor-Leste revenues from this field are not included in the Petroleum Wealth, nor are potential
revenues from the acreages currently being offered for exploration.

- 17 -

The Petroleum Fund Act presupposes that the nominal yield on a US Government bond should be used when
calculating the present value of the future cash flow from the petroleum sector. At the beginning of the budget process
(beginning of February) this rate was about 4.5 per cent. These rates have, however, increased by about ½ a
percentage point to about 5 per cent. The calculations in this document are based upon the markets at the beginning of
the budget process.
The Petroleum Wealth, including the estimated value of the Petroleum Fund at 30 June 2006, is estimated at $9.4 b,
and sustainable use of petroleum revenues for 2006/07 fiscal year is estimated at $283m.
Table 4.2
World Oil Price Assumptions ($ per Barrel)

Total
Until June 2002
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
2026/27
2027/28
2028/29
2029/30

Sector Petrolífero de Tim or-Leste
Average WTI Price of
Production
Oil
Millons of Barels
$/Barrel
Equivalent
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
44.7
0.0
51.0
31.7
58.7
38.7
58.2
52.5
54.5
56.8
50.5
56.5
46.3
55.5
44.8
54.5
46.2
53.6
47.6
52.6
49.0
50.5
50.5
48.9
52.0
47.3
53.5
45.3
55.1
43.6
56.8
40.1
58.5
35.1
60.2
32.1
62.0
31.3
63.9
31.0
65.8
15.6
67.7
0.0
69.8
0.0
71.8
0.0
74.0
0.0
76.2
0.0
78.4
0.0

- 18 -

Total Petroleum
Receipts
$million
0.0
11.8
10.9
6.5
335.4
400.3
643.5
902.6
953.6
878.6
851.2
853.1
847.8
807.7
768.2
760.1
708.5
672.2
592.8
407.7
312.3
304.1
268.3
141.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Table 4.3
Estimated Petroleum Revenue 2005-06 to 2009-10 ($m)
05-06
(m )
418.8
4.4
298.1
5.5
2.6
75.4
16.3
2.5
14.0

Total Pe tr ole um Re ve nue
V alue A dded Tax
Inc ome Tax
A dditional Prof its Tax
Wage Tax
Other Pay ments
Royalties (Firs t Tranc he Petroleum)
Petroleum Fund Interes t
Pipeline Pay ments
EKKN Rev enue

06-07
(m )
683.3
3.4
302.2
239.1
5.1
0.2
85.6
39.6
5.4
2.7

07-08
(m )
972.4
3.4
175.3
630.0
5.2
0.2
82.8
69.6
5.9
-

08-09
(m )
1,062.1
3.5
104.6
759.5
5.3
0.2
74.7
108.4
5.9
-

Total 4
ye ar s
(m )
3,745.5
15.8
710.2
2,296.2
21.1
0.8
309.2
366.4
23.1
2.7

09-10
(m )
1,027.6
5.5
128.1
667.6
5.5
0.2
66.1
148.7
5.9
-

Chart 4.1
Changes in World Oil Price WTI Basis ($ Per Barrel)
80
70
60

Actual Price

Base Case

$ per Barrel

50
40
30
20
10

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

0

Year

There is a risk, however s