E q u it y | I n d o n e s ia | R e s e a rc h D a il y
Premier Insight
28 September 2018
A move of anticipation
JCI Index
10,000
6,100
9,000
Monetary decision was anticipative policy rate increase to 5.75%.
6,000
8,000
7,000
Domestic market was relatively calm during decision time.
6,000
5,800
5,000
5,700
Rp bn
JCI Index
5,900
4,000
Decision was mostly about maintaining market attractiveness.
3,000
5,600
2,000
5,500
Anticipating one more policy rate increase in 4Q18.
1,000
-
27-Sep
26-Sep
25-Sep
24-Sep
21-Sep
20-Sep
19-Sep
18-Sep
17-Sep
14-Sep
13-Sep
7-Sep
12-Sep
6-Sep
10-Sep
5-Sep
4-Sep
3-Sep
31-Aug
30-Aug
29-Aug
28-Aug
5,400
Foreign net buy (sell)
30%
1,400
1,200
25%
1,000
15%
600
400
10%
200
5%
-
27-Sep
26-Sep
25-Sep
24-Sep
21-Sep
20-Sep
19-Sep
18-Sep
17-Sep
14-Sep
0%
13-Sep
(400)
12-Sep
(200)
-5%
% net buy/market turnover
20%
800
Net buy (sell) in Rp bn
Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily
Economic Update
-10%
(600)
(800)
-15%
Key Indexes
Index
JCI
LQ45
DJI
Closing
1 day
1 year
YTD
5,929
1.0%
1.5%
-6.7%
938
1.4%
-3.2%
-13.1%
7.0%
26,440
0.2%
18.1%
SET
1,753
0.2%
5.2%
0.0%
HSI
27,716
- 0.4%
1.1%
-7.4%
NKY
23,797
- 1.0%
16.9%
5.6%
FTSE
7,545
0.5%
3.0%
-1.9%
FSSTI
3,236
- 0.1%
0.3%
-4.9%
23
0.7%
-12.8%
-19.7%
EIDO
Commodity price
Commodities
Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI)
CPO/tonne
72.1
0.8%
39.9%
522.7
-1.1%
-21.2%
Soy/bushel
8.0
0.6%
-14.0%
Rubber/kg
1.5
-1.1%
-22.2%
Nickel/tonne
12,474
-2.0%
22.8%
Tins/tonne
18,840
-0.2%
-9.8%
Copper/tonne
6,182
-1.4%
-3.3%
Gold/try.oz (Spot)
1,183
-1.0%
-8.1%
Coal/tonne
113.7
0.0%
16.9%
3.1
-0.6%
-5.0%
514.0
0.2%
13.0%
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel (USd)
Source : Bloomberg
Policy rate increase. The central bank increased again policy rate 7DRRR by
25bps to 5.75%, an increase of 150bps ytd and in line with consensus expectation,
while consequently also shifted up deposit and lending facility rates to 5% and
6.5%. We believe this manoeuvre is an anticipation strategy to attract inflows and
improve the BOP position rather than to calm the market, considering (1) Tamed
volatility within the past two weeks, (2) Increasing net purchasing activity from
foreign holders. Given the 5x rate increase already taking place throughout the
year, another increase is still expected to materialise in 4Q18.
Calm market. We think domestic financial capital market had been more stable
during rate-decision time with returning confidence to EMs and careful selection to
EMs with better fundamentals, including Indonesia. Except for the Philippines, the
last few weeks had seen inflow improvement in most Asian EM peers, with
Indonesia experiencing largest development. With 10-year sovereign yields at
8.18% and declining by 34bps within two weeks and net inflow in bond market of
c. Rp11tn, situation was a contrast against early September. The momentum
appeared to be utilised by BI to allow IDR depreciation more to its downward
trajectory, as applying average year’s sensitivity analysis, it is implied that
exchange rate should translate to c. 0.8% appreciation as opposed to a factual
0.5% depreciation in two-weeks time.
Maintaining attractiveness. The mood behind registering higher policy rate was
on the back of supporting domestic financial market, which, despite being
relatively calm at the moment of decision, is nevertheless still exposed to global
uncertainty. The Federal Reserve just increased Federal Funds Rate to new range
of 2.00-2.25% and therefore generated a positive real interest rate (Jul18’s PCE
inflation was 2% yoy), which should create a stimulant for funds flying out from
EMs. We observe BI’s concern now adds global growth inequality – where EMs are
forecast to grow less than earlier expectation – in addition to the US’ trade tension
along with other countries, which may contribute extra risk for flight for safety.
Additionally, we also view Indonesia’s Aug18 trade data realisation contributed to
the decision, as reading had set a US$-3bn deficit in two-third of 3Q18, potentially
setting yet again a stressed 3Q18 current account.
Another policy rate increase expected. With volatility expected to remain
prevalent and theming through the 4Q, another 25bps increase is anticipated as
there should be increasing need for foreign currency as households procure goods
and services to overcome year-end holiday and Christmas season. We estimate
exchange rate to depreciate further by c. 0.8% in line with fundamental value and
fluctuation. Along with the new policy rate, BI introduced a new regulation to
implement domestic non-deliverable forward (DNDF) transaction, which uses
JISDOR as its benchmark and requires underlying transaction in form of trade,
investment, and bank loan in foreign currency. The success of this newlyimplemented measure should help trim rupiah volatility going forward.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
PremierInsight
Retail Update
Meeting with Retailers’ Association
The retail sector still maintained its solid growth in 2018.
Increase in import tax should not have real impact to retailers.
New E-commercelaws to be passed in 4Q18.
Our top picks: MAPI, ACES, followed by LPPF.
Robust growth in the retail sector still continues. According to HIPPINDO
(Indonesian Shopping Center Tenant Association), retail sales in 9M18 sustained
its strong momentum, maintaining a double digit growth. Looking more closely
amongst their members, F&B and Minimarkets segments recorded the strongest
growth, followed by Supermarkets and entertainments, then lastly Hypermarkets
which recorded negative growth. Higher-end retailers are also outperforming the
middle-low segment, recording stronger growth throughout the year. Rental rate
is also expected to grow at a more modest rate going forward, since occupancy
rate are declining in many malls. Overall, the Association is still optimistic on the
retail industry growth in the near future. These findings are in-line with our bullish
stance on the retail sector going forward.
Immaterial impact from increase in import taxes. Recently, due to the
increase in the country’s current account deficit (CAD), the government has
decided to increase taxes (PPH import) on 450 imported goods. This has led many
people to put a negative sentiment on the retail sector, especially companies with
considerable import components, as concerns over earnings loomed. However
according to Hippindo, there should not be any material impact to the companies’
bottom line, as this will only affect cash flow. Now companies will just have to pay
their import tax in larger sum upfront, but they will still be paying the same
amount of tax at the end of the day.
VAT refund during Asian Games 2018 was below expectation. This is based
on lower than expected VAT refunds in five main international airports in
Indonesia. Hippindo claimed that the Rp5mn (USD343) minimum transaction to
be able to receive VAT refund is too high, in fact it is the highest amongst the
ASEAN countries (average USD100). They have proposed to the government to
lower this VAT refund minimum transaction to Rp1mn. We think this is a good
initiative from Hippindo, as the brick and mortar retailers need to quickly
capitalize on trends, while moving away from the reliance on promotions which
encouraged consumers to spend only during sales and promotion periods.
New E-commerce laws to be passed by the government. In the recent
years, e-commerce or online retailing has not been tightly regulated by the
government. This has resulted in many SMEs and smaller shops to close down, as
they were not able to compete with the prices these e-commerce offers. In order
to protect these local retailers, the government is planning to pass new ecommerce law in 4Q18. One of these laws will serve to regulate the minimum
local content (KDA) for online retailers. This new law will require online retailer to
have a minimum of 60% local content in their total SKUs. This can still be
considered relatively lenient, as offline retailers need to comply with 80% local
content. Our top picks: MAPI, ACES, followed by LPPF.
PE (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EPS (Rp)
EPS Growth (%)
Ticker
Rec
TP
2018E
2019E
2018E
2019E
2018E
2019E
2018E
RALS IJ
HOLD
1,550
18.9
16.7
11.9
10.4
74
84
29.7%
13.2%
MAPI IJ
BUY
UR
21.3
17.5
7.5
6.7
38
47
73.0%
22.0%
ACES IJ
BUY
1,540
24.4
20.4
19.0
15.7
55
65
20.2%
19.3%
LPPF IJ
BUY
9,500
9.8
9.4
5.6
9.2
670
697
2.5%
4.1%
2019E
Source: IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2
PremierInsight
News & Analysis
Corporates
BDMN: Bank Danamon (BDMN IJ; Rp7,175; Hold) has signed conditional
agreement for sale of 70% stake (out of 90% ownership) in Asuransi Adira to
Zurich Insurance Co. Ltd, pending regulatory approval. Zurich also plan to buy
10% stake from Willy S. Dharma. The acquisition is valued at Rp3.9tn for BDMN’s
70% stake. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We view this acquisition as neutral to BDMN – the sales proceed is
equivalent to 10% of the bank’s equity capital but we believe the bank is already
over-capitalised with high CAR of 21.7%, low asset/equity leverage of 4.6x (vs.
c.6x for peer major banks) despite slow asset growth in past 5 years. We
reiterate our Hold rating.
ISAT: Indosat (ISAT IJ; Rp3,000; Hold) supports 4.0 industry revolution in
Education (Edu 4.0) sector. The company held event attended by 45 national
colleges/universities with topic “Empower Facilities towards Edu 4.0”. Based on
cooperation, ISAT will prepare connection between universities to be used
together as access to research network (“Indonesia Research and Education
Network”) and sharing resources. (Investor Daily).
Comment: We expecti insignificant impact to our estimates as most of ISAT’s
revenue is contributed by cellular services. We have a Hold with TP Rp3,500.
MYRX: Hanson International’s (MYRX IJ; Rp128; Not Rated) Extraordinary
General Meeting of Shareholders (EGMS) approved the right issue plan with
target proceed of Rp16tn to finance the development of Grand Jakarta project,
mostly for a 16,000ha land acquisition stretching from Serpong to Maja to
complement company’s Serpong-Maja toll road. The right issue plan will offer
87.8bn shares with the nominal price of Rp22/share. In addition, MYRX booked
strong marketing sales of Rp1.5tn in 7M18 (+50% yoy), supported by sales from
Citra Maja, Forest Hills, Millenium City of Rp556bn, 134bn, Rp360bn,
respectively. (Kontan).
SMRA: Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ; Rp595; Hold) reported earnings of
Rp78bn in 1H18 (+61% yoy), which came below market expectation, forming
19% of our/consensus FY18F forecast. Revenue was flat -1% yoy, but grew 23%
qoq, with margin improvement due to limited lauching where COGS declined by
7% yoy. SMRA booked positive cash flow of Rp184bn in 1H18, which is
company’s best performance since 2016. In quarterly basis, SMRA booked
earnings of Rp36bn in 2Q18 (-13% qoq), much stronger that 2Q17 and 2Q16
where company booked losses of Rp23bn and Rp4bn, respectively.
(Rp bn)
1H18
1H17
YoY
2Q18
1Q18
QoQ
% of
ours
% of
consensus
Revenue
2,667
2,685
-0.7%
1,468
1,199
22.5%
46%
45%
Gross profit
1,243
1,155
7.6%
705
538
31.0%
47%
44%
632
540
16.9%
342
290
17.8%
47%
44%
78
49
60.6%
37
42
-12.7%
19%
19%
Gross margin
46.6%
43.0%
48.0%
44.9%
Operating margin
23.7%
20.1%
23.3%
24.2%
2.9%
1.8%
2.5%
3.5%
Operating profit
Net income
Net margin
Comment: The result was below our expectation, thus maintain our Hold call on
SMRA with TP of Rp700.
WSKT: Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ; Rp1,695; Buy) just received payment of
Rp3.9tn for LRT Palembang 4th termin payment. The remaining Rp5.1tn will be
paid from 2019 state budget. (Company).
Comment: Expect improved cash flow and balance sheet upon turnkey project
payments acceptance. Maintain Buy with TP of Rp2,300.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
3
PremierInsight
Markets & Sector
Infrastructure sector: Government will offer three Light Rail Transit (LRT)
projects to foreign investment in IMF World Bank, October 2018. The projects
offered are LRT Medan, LRT Surabaya, and LRT Bandung with investment worth
of Rp5-10tn for each project. In addition, government will also offer two airports
expansion projects, namely Kualanamu Airport and Zainudin Abdul Madjid,
Lombok with investment worth of Rp3-5tn for each project. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We are positive towards the news as foreign investment will help
government fund major infrastructure project, without dragging down SOE
contractor’s cash flow and balance sheet through the appointment of turnkey
projects.
Pharmaceutical sector: Government expects the investment in pharmaceutical
sector and drug manufacturing to grow steadily at 10%. Government believes the
increasing medicine needs and National Health Insurance Program (JKN Program)
are two catalysts for this industry. According to Government, JKN Program
already achieves to 75% Indonesian population. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Telco Sector: Erricson predicts 2017-23F global data traffic to grow 39% CAGR.
Erricson also estimates that more than 20% of global cellular data traffic to use
5G. Erricson Indonesia said 5G could be one of important infrastructures for
industry digitalization and supporting Gov’t’s ambition in “Making Indonesia 4.0”.
Based on news last month, Industrial Ministry has set 5 manufacturing sectors to
pioneer 4.0 industry implementation in Indonesia which are: F&B, electronics,
automotive, chenmical, and textile and apparel industry. Previously, several telco
operators held trial phase for 5G (yet commercial) in July/Aug 2018. (Investor
Daily, Bisnis Indonesia, Kontan).
Comment: Neutral impact to Telco Sector for now. We will monitor for details
regarding 5G implementation as impact from the implementation will depend also
on several factors, e.g. whether significant additional capex is needed. We have a
Buy for EXCL TP Rp3,500, but Hold for both TLKM Rp 3,700 and ISAT TP
Rp3,500.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
4
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any
securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
28 September 2018
A move of anticipation
JCI Index
10,000
6,100
9,000
Monetary decision was anticipative policy rate increase to 5.75%.
6,000
8,000
7,000
Domestic market was relatively calm during decision time.
6,000
5,800
5,000
5,700
Rp bn
JCI Index
5,900
4,000
Decision was mostly about maintaining market attractiveness.
3,000
5,600
2,000
5,500
Anticipating one more policy rate increase in 4Q18.
1,000
-
27-Sep
26-Sep
25-Sep
24-Sep
21-Sep
20-Sep
19-Sep
18-Sep
17-Sep
14-Sep
13-Sep
7-Sep
12-Sep
6-Sep
10-Sep
5-Sep
4-Sep
3-Sep
31-Aug
30-Aug
29-Aug
28-Aug
5,400
Foreign net buy (sell)
30%
1,400
1,200
25%
1,000
15%
600
400
10%
200
5%
-
27-Sep
26-Sep
25-Sep
24-Sep
21-Sep
20-Sep
19-Sep
18-Sep
17-Sep
14-Sep
0%
13-Sep
(400)
12-Sep
(200)
-5%
% net buy/market turnover
20%
800
Net buy (sell) in Rp bn
Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily
Economic Update
-10%
(600)
(800)
-15%
Key Indexes
Index
JCI
LQ45
DJI
Closing
1 day
1 year
YTD
5,929
1.0%
1.5%
-6.7%
938
1.4%
-3.2%
-13.1%
7.0%
26,440
0.2%
18.1%
SET
1,753
0.2%
5.2%
0.0%
HSI
27,716
- 0.4%
1.1%
-7.4%
NKY
23,797
- 1.0%
16.9%
5.6%
FTSE
7,545
0.5%
3.0%
-1.9%
FSSTI
3,236
- 0.1%
0.3%
-4.9%
23
0.7%
-12.8%
-19.7%
EIDO
Commodity price
Commodities
Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI)
CPO/tonne
72.1
0.8%
39.9%
522.7
-1.1%
-21.2%
Soy/bushel
8.0
0.6%
-14.0%
Rubber/kg
1.5
-1.1%
-22.2%
Nickel/tonne
12,474
-2.0%
22.8%
Tins/tonne
18,840
-0.2%
-9.8%
Copper/tonne
6,182
-1.4%
-3.3%
Gold/try.oz (Spot)
1,183
-1.0%
-8.1%
Coal/tonne
113.7
0.0%
16.9%
3.1
-0.6%
-5.0%
514.0
0.2%
13.0%
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel (USd)
Source : Bloomberg
Policy rate increase. The central bank increased again policy rate 7DRRR by
25bps to 5.75%, an increase of 150bps ytd and in line with consensus expectation,
while consequently also shifted up deposit and lending facility rates to 5% and
6.5%. We believe this manoeuvre is an anticipation strategy to attract inflows and
improve the BOP position rather than to calm the market, considering (1) Tamed
volatility within the past two weeks, (2) Increasing net purchasing activity from
foreign holders. Given the 5x rate increase already taking place throughout the
year, another increase is still expected to materialise in 4Q18.
Calm market. We think domestic financial capital market had been more stable
during rate-decision time with returning confidence to EMs and careful selection to
EMs with better fundamentals, including Indonesia. Except for the Philippines, the
last few weeks had seen inflow improvement in most Asian EM peers, with
Indonesia experiencing largest development. With 10-year sovereign yields at
8.18% and declining by 34bps within two weeks and net inflow in bond market of
c. Rp11tn, situation was a contrast against early September. The momentum
appeared to be utilised by BI to allow IDR depreciation more to its downward
trajectory, as applying average year’s sensitivity analysis, it is implied that
exchange rate should translate to c. 0.8% appreciation as opposed to a factual
0.5% depreciation in two-weeks time.
Maintaining attractiveness. The mood behind registering higher policy rate was
on the back of supporting domestic financial market, which, despite being
relatively calm at the moment of decision, is nevertheless still exposed to global
uncertainty. The Federal Reserve just increased Federal Funds Rate to new range
of 2.00-2.25% and therefore generated a positive real interest rate (Jul18’s PCE
inflation was 2% yoy), which should create a stimulant for funds flying out from
EMs. We observe BI’s concern now adds global growth inequality – where EMs are
forecast to grow less than earlier expectation – in addition to the US’ trade tension
along with other countries, which may contribute extra risk for flight for safety.
Additionally, we also view Indonesia’s Aug18 trade data realisation contributed to
the decision, as reading had set a US$-3bn deficit in two-third of 3Q18, potentially
setting yet again a stressed 3Q18 current account.
Another policy rate increase expected. With volatility expected to remain
prevalent and theming through the 4Q, another 25bps increase is anticipated as
there should be increasing need for foreign currency as households procure goods
and services to overcome year-end holiday and Christmas season. We estimate
exchange rate to depreciate further by c. 0.8% in line with fundamental value and
fluctuation. Along with the new policy rate, BI introduced a new regulation to
implement domestic non-deliverable forward (DNDF) transaction, which uses
JISDOR as its benchmark and requires underlying transaction in form of trade,
investment, and bank loan in foreign currency. The success of this newlyimplemented measure should help trim rupiah volatility going forward.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
PremierInsight
Retail Update
Meeting with Retailers’ Association
The retail sector still maintained its solid growth in 2018.
Increase in import tax should not have real impact to retailers.
New E-commercelaws to be passed in 4Q18.
Our top picks: MAPI, ACES, followed by LPPF.
Robust growth in the retail sector still continues. According to HIPPINDO
(Indonesian Shopping Center Tenant Association), retail sales in 9M18 sustained
its strong momentum, maintaining a double digit growth. Looking more closely
amongst their members, F&B and Minimarkets segments recorded the strongest
growth, followed by Supermarkets and entertainments, then lastly Hypermarkets
which recorded negative growth. Higher-end retailers are also outperforming the
middle-low segment, recording stronger growth throughout the year. Rental rate
is also expected to grow at a more modest rate going forward, since occupancy
rate are declining in many malls. Overall, the Association is still optimistic on the
retail industry growth in the near future. These findings are in-line with our bullish
stance on the retail sector going forward.
Immaterial impact from increase in import taxes. Recently, due to the
increase in the country’s current account deficit (CAD), the government has
decided to increase taxes (PPH import) on 450 imported goods. This has led many
people to put a negative sentiment on the retail sector, especially companies with
considerable import components, as concerns over earnings loomed. However
according to Hippindo, there should not be any material impact to the companies’
bottom line, as this will only affect cash flow. Now companies will just have to pay
their import tax in larger sum upfront, but they will still be paying the same
amount of tax at the end of the day.
VAT refund during Asian Games 2018 was below expectation. This is based
on lower than expected VAT refunds in five main international airports in
Indonesia. Hippindo claimed that the Rp5mn (USD343) minimum transaction to
be able to receive VAT refund is too high, in fact it is the highest amongst the
ASEAN countries (average USD100). They have proposed to the government to
lower this VAT refund minimum transaction to Rp1mn. We think this is a good
initiative from Hippindo, as the brick and mortar retailers need to quickly
capitalize on trends, while moving away from the reliance on promotions which
encouraged consumers to spend only during sales and promotion periods.
New E-commerce laws to be passed by the government. In the recent
years, e-commerce or online retailing has not been tightly regulated by the
government. This has resulted in many SMEs and smaller shops to close down, as
they were not able to compete with the prices these e-commerce offers. In order
to protect these local retailers, the government is planning to pass new ecommerce law in 4Q18. One of these laws will serve to regulate the minimum
local content (KDA) for online retailers. This new law will require online retailer to
have a minimum of 60% local content in their total SKUs. This can still be
considered relatively lenient, as offline retailers need to comply with 80% local
content. Our top picks: MAPI, ACES, followed by LPPF.
PE (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EPS (Rp)
EPS Growth (%)
Ticker
Rec
TP
2018E
2019E
2018E
2019E
2018E
2019E
2018E
RALS IJ
HOLD
1,550
18.9
16.7
11.9
10.4
74
84
29.7%
13.2%
MAPI IJ
BUY
UR
21.3
17.5
7.5
6.7
38
47
73.0%
22.0%
ACES IJ
BUY
1,540
24.4
20.4
19.0
15.7
55
65
20.2%
19.3%
LPPF IJ
BUY
9,500
9.8
9.4
5.6
9.2
670
697
2.5%
4.1%
2019E
Source: IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2
PremierInsight
News & Analysis
Corporates
BDMN: Bank Danamon (BDMN IJ; Rp7,175; Hold) has signed conditional
agreement for sale of 70% stake (out of 90% ownership) in Asuransi Adira to
Zurich Insurance Co. Ltd, pending regulatory approval. Zurich also plan to buy
10% stake from Willy S. Dharma. The acquisition is valued at Rp3.9tn for BDMN’s
70% stake. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We view this acquisition as neutral to BDMN – the sales proceed is
equivalent to 10% of the bank’s equity capital but we believe the bank is already
over-capitalised with high CAR of 21.7%, low asset/equity leverage of 4.6x (vs.
c.6x for peer major banks) despite slow asset growth in past 5 years. We
reiterate our Hold rating.
ISAT: Indosat (ISAT IJ; Rp3,000; Hold) supports 4.0 industry revolution in
Education (Edu 4.0) sector. The company held event attended by 45 national
colleges/universities with topic “Empower Facilities towards Edu 4.0”. Based on
cooperation, ISAT will prepare connection between universities to be used
together as access to research network (“Indonesia Research and Education
Network”) and sharing resources. (Investor Daily).
Comment: We expecti insignificant impact to our estimates as most of ISAT’s
revenue is contributed by cellular services. We have a Hold with TP Rp3,500.
MYRX: Hanson International’s (MYRX IJ; Rp128; Not Rated) Extraordinary
General Meeting of Shareholders (EGMS) approved the right issue plan with
target proceed of Rp16tn to finance the development of Grand Jakarta project,
mostly for a 16,000ha land acquisition stretching from Serpong to Maja to
complement company’s Serpong-Maja toll road. The right issue plan will offer
87.8bn shares with the nominal price of Rp22/share. In addition, MYRX booked
strong marketing sales of Rp1.5tn in 7M18 (+50% yoy), supported by sales from
Citra Maja, Forest Hills, Millenium City of Rp556bn, 134bn, Rp360bn,
respectively. (Kontan).
SMRA: Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ; Rp595; Hold) reported earnings of
Rp78bn in 1H18 (+61% yoy), which came below market expectation, forming
19% of our/consensus FY18F forecast. Revenue was flat -1% yoy, but grew 23%
qoq, with margin improvement due to limited lauching where COGS declined by
7% yoy. SMRA booked positive cash flow of Rp184bn in 1H18, which is
company’s best performance since 2016. In quarterly basis, SMRA booked
earnings of Rp36bn in 2Q18 (-13% qoq), much stronger that 2Q17 and 2Q16
where company booked losses of Rp23bn and Rp4bn, respectively.
(Rp bn)
1H18
1H17
YoY
2Q18
1Q18
QoQ
% of
ours
% of
consensus
Revenue
2,667
2,685
-0.7%
1,468
1,199
22.5%
46%
45%
Gross profit
1,243
1,155
7.6%
705
538
31.0%
47%
44%
632
540
16.9%
342
290
17.8%
47%
44%
78
49
60.6%
37
42
-12.7%
19%
19%
Gross margin
46.6%
43.0%
48.0%
44.9%
Operating margin
23.7%
20.1%
23.3%
24.2%
2.9%
1.8%
2.5%
3.5%
Operating profit
Net income
Net margin
Comment: The result was below our expectation, thus maintain our Hold call on
SMRA with TP of Rp700.
WSKT: Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ; Rp1,695; Buy) just received payment of
Rp3.9tn for LRT Palembang 4th termin payment. The remaining Rp5.1tn will be
paid from 2019 state budget. (Company).
Comment: Expect improved cash flow and balance sheet upon turnkey project
payments acceptance. Maintain Buy with TP of Rp2,300.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
3
PremierInsight
Markets & Sector
Infrastructure sector: Government will offer three Light Rail Transit (LRT)
projects to foreign investment in IMF World Bank, October 2018. The projects
offered are LRT Medan, LRT Surabaya, and LRT Bandung with investment worth
of Rp5-10tn for each project. In addition, government will also offer two airports
expansion projects, namely Kualanamu Airport and Zainudin Abdul Madjid,
Lombok with investment worth of Rp3-5tn for each project. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We are positive towards the news as foreign investment will help
government fund major infrastructure project, without dragging down SOE
contractor’s cash flow and balance sheet through the appointment of turnkey
projects.
Pharmaceutical sector: Government expects the investment in pharmaceutical
sector and drug manufacturing to grow steadily at 10%. Government believes the
increasing medicine needs and National Health Insurance Program (JKN Program)
are two catalysts for this industry. According to Government, JKN Program
already achieves to 75% Indonesian population. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Telco Sector: Erricson predicts 2017-23F global data traffic to grow 39% CAGR.
Erricson also estimates that more than 20% of global cellular data traffic to use
5G. Erricson Indonesia said 5G could be one of important infrastructures for
industry digitalization and supporting Gov’t’s ambition in “Making Indonesia 4.0”.
Based on news last month, Industrial Ministry has set 5 manufacturing sectors to
pioneer 4.0 industry implementation in Indonesia which are: F&B, electronics,
automotive, chenmical, and textile and apparel industry. Previously, several telco
operators held trial phase for 5G (yet commercial) in July/Aug 2018. (Investor
Daily, Bisnis Indonesia, Kontan).
Comment: Neutral impact to Telco Sector for now. We will monitor for details
regarding 5G implementation as impact from the implementation will depend also
on several factors, e.g. whether significant additional capex is needed. We have a
Buy for EXCL TP Rp3,500, but Hold for both TLKM Rp 3,700 and ISAT TP
Rp3,500.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
4
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INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any
securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.