PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS - Diponegoro University | Institutional Repository (UNDIP-IR)

PROFI TABI LI TY
AN ALYSI S
Ek on om i Te k n ik Kim ia
By D r . I st a di
2007

Sch e du le
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Tim e Value of Money ( I nt erest Rat e) & Cash
Flow
Depreciat ion & Salvage Value
Pr ofit a bilit y An a lysis
Select ion of Alt ernat if I nvest m ent of Chem ical

Plant Equipm ent
Sensit ivit y/ Break Even Analysis
Tax Principals ( Dasar- Dasar Perpaj akan)
Select ion of Plant Locat ion
Uj ian Modul

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Cor por a t e / Pla n t Obj e ct ive s












Maxim ize t he ret urn on invest m ent
Maxim ize t he ret urn on st ockholder’s equit y
Maxim ize aggregat e earning
Maxim ize com m on st ock prices
Find out let s for a m axim um of addit ional
invest m ent at ret urns great er t han t he m inim um
accept able rat e of ret urn
I ncrease m arker share
I ncrease t he econom ic value added
I ncrease earnings per share of st ock
I ncrease t he m arket value added

Pr oj e ct Cla ssifica t ion
• Necessit y Proj ect ( reduct ion of
operat ing expenses)
• Product im provem ent proj ect
• Process im provem ent proj ect
• Expansion proj ect ( t o m eet increased
sales dem and)
• New vent ures ( require capit al

expendit ures t o int roduce new
product s t o t he m arket )

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M in im u m Acce pt a ble
Ra t e of Re t u r n
• Pihak m anaj em en m ungkin akan m enaikkan rat e
yang diperlukan unt uk m engant isipasi resiko
proj ek at au j ika budget t erbat as
• Manaj em en selanj ut nya m enent ukan rat e of
ret urn m inim um unt uk suat u proj ek.
• Yang perlu diperhat ikan adalah Modal, dari m ana
dipinj am .
• Perusahaan harus berusaha agar pendapat an
lebih besar daripada biaya angsuran, dan harus
unt ung ( profit able)
• Higher t he risk, higher t he required ret urn
• Today’s econom y Î ROI aft er t ax m inim um : 2535 % , and Payout Tim e m axim um : 3 years


Fa ct or s Affe ct in g M in im u m
Acce pt a ble Ra t e of Re t u r n
• Cost of Capit al
• Availabilit y of Capit al ( healt h of
econom y)
• Com pet ing I nvest m ent s
• Difference in Risks of invest m ent
• Difference in t im e t o recover capit al

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Pr ofit a bilit y M e a su r e s
• Qu a n t it a t ive M e a su r e s
– I nt erest Rat e based ( ROI , I RR/ DCFROR)
– Money/ Cash based ( NPV, NFV)
– Tim e Based ( POT/ Payback Period)

• Qu a lit a t ive M e a su r e s
– Em ployee m orale
– Em ployee safet y

– Environm ent al Const raint s
– Legal Const raint s

Re t u r n on I n ve st m e n t ( ROI )
• Merupakan besarnya laj u pengem balian
m odal suat u invest asi
• Biasanya digunakan analisis proj ek dengan
pendapat an rat a- rat a per t ahun
• Persam aan: ROI = Annual net profit earnings after taxes x 100
Total Capital Investment

• ROI can be calculat ed before or aft er t axes
• Denom inat or could be Fixed Capit al
I nvest m ent or Fixed + Working Capit al
• Profit = incom e - expenses

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D isa dva n t a ge of “Re t ur n
on I n ve st m e n t ( ROI ) ”

• The t im e value of m oney is ignored
• The proj ect will last t he est im at ed life and
t his is oft en not t rue
• Equal w eight is given all incom e for all
years and t hat is not alw ays t rue. The
averaging of profit s perm it s laxit y in
forecast ing
• I t does not consider t im ing of cash flows
• I t does not consider capit al recovery

Re t u r n on Ave r a ge
I n ve st m e n t ( ROAI )
• Met hod for m easuring t he profit abilit y of
invest m ent s ut ilizing account ing dat a and based
on averaging m et hod
• Equat ion:
Annual net profit earnings after taxes
ROAI =

Land


Working Capital

FCI/2

x 100

• Why FCI / 2 ??
– At t he beginning of a proj ect t he ret urn is earned against
t he full invest m ent , and at t he end of a proj ect t he
invest m ent has been fully depreciat ed and t he capit al
has been recovered.
– Therefore, on t he average over t he life of t he
invest m ent , half t he FCI is involved.

• Kelem ahan ? Sam a dengan ROI

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Pa yba ck Pe r iod/ Pa you t

Tim e ( POT)
• Ot her t erm s: Payback Period, Payout Tim e.
• To calculat e t he am ount of t im e t hat will be required t o
recover t he depreciable FCI from t he accrued cash flow of a
proj ect .
• Equat ion:

POP =

Depreciable Fixed Capital Investment
After-tax Cash Flow

• The denom inat or m ay be t he averaged annual cash flow or
t he individual yearly cash flows. This could be aft er or before
t ax.
• Disadvant ages:
– No considerat ion t o cash flow or t im e value of m oney
– The m et hod m akes no provision for including land or w orking
capit al


Pa you t Pe r iod w it h
I n t e r e st ( POPI )
• Takes int o account t he t im e value of
m oney ( discount ed) .
• Equat ions:
POPi =

after-tax cash flow i
fixed capital investment

i

• Where:
– ( aft er t ax cash flow) i = cash flow discount ed t o
t im e zero at int erest rat e i.
– ( fixed capit al invest .) i = FCI com pounded t o
t im e zero at an int erest rat e i

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Ex a m ple ( ROI & POT)
• Pr oble m : A proposed chem ical plant will require a
fixed- capit al invest m ent of $10 m illion. I t is est im at ed
t hat t he w orking capit al will am ount t o 25 percent of
t he t ot al invest m ent , and annual depreciat ion cost s
are est im at ed t o be 10 % of t he FCI . I f t he annual
profit will be $3 m illion, det erm ine t he st andard %
ROI and t he m inim um payback period.
• Solu t ion :
• Annual Profit = $3.000.000
• Fixed capit al invest m ent = $10.000.000
• Working Capit al = ( 25% ) ( $10.000.000) = $2.500.000
• Rat e of Ret urn on I nvest m ent =
2.000.000/ ( 10.000.000+ 2.500.000) x 100% = 16%

Exam ple ….
• Payout Tim e = depreciable FCI / ( avg. profit / yr +
avg. depreciat ion/ yr)
• Depreciat ion = ( 10% ) ( 10.000.000) = $100.000
• Payout Tim e =

( 10.000.000) / ( 3.000.000+ 100.000) = 3.23 year

• Salvage Value = Fixed Capit al I nvest m ent Depreciat ion

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N e t Pr e se n t W or t h ( N PW )
• Ot her t erm s: Net Present Value ( NPV)

Com pounding

St art - up

• The NPW is t he one m ost com panies use since it
has none of t he disadvant ages of ot her m et hods
and t reat s t he t im e value of m oney and it s effect
on proj ect profit abilit y properly
• The NPW is t he algebraic sum of t he discount ed
values of t he cash flows each year during t he life
of proj ect
Discount ing

t im e

… NPW
• The Net Present Wort h ( NPW) is t he
difference bet ween t he present wort h of all
cash inflow and t he present wort h of all
invest m ent it em s:
NPW or NPV = Present Worth of all cash inflow income
- Present Worth of all investment items

• Proj ect wit h high NPW will produce a
great er fut ure w ort h t o a com pany.

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Adva n t a ge s a n d
D isa dva n t a ge s of N PW
• Adva n t a ge s:
– Tim ing of all cash flows and capit al
recovery at t he end of a proj ect are
considered

• D isa dva n t a ge s:
– Capit al invest m ent is hidden in t he
calculat ion and need t o be st at ed clearly
in any report of t he result s

N e t Pr e se n t W or t h I n de x
( N PW I )
• Also known as Profit abilit y I ndex
• The NPWI is t he rat io of t he present
value of t he aft er- t ax cash inflows t o
t he present value of t he cash
out flows or capit al it em s
• NPWI > 1 Î great er t han discount
rat e

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I n t e r n a l Ra t e of Re t u r n
( I RR)
• I RR or DCFROR is t he int erest or discount rat e for
which t he Net Present Value of t he proj ect is equal t o
zero
• I RR is usually used for analyze t he proj ect in which
t he revenue of t he proj ect is not uniform yearly = = >
cash flow
• I t is discount rat e t hat result s w hen t he NPW is equal
t o zero.
• Also know n as: DI SCOUNTED CASH FLOW RATE OF
RETURN ( DCFROR)
• The t echnique is sim ilar wit h NPW m et hod
• I RR is t he int erest rat e t hat will produce an NPW of
zero.

D CFROR Ca lcu la t ion of A
Pr oj e ct
• DCFROR can be calculat ed from t he Cash Flow and
Fixed Capit al I nvest m ent which forw ard t o present
value:
FCI WC = CASH FLOW P / A , i , n

FCI WC =

CASH FLOW

1 i n− 1
i i 1 n

WC SV

WC

1
1 i

SV

n

1
1 i

n

• WC and Salvage Value are recoverable

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Lim it at ions of I RR Met hod
• M u lt iple r a t e s for r e t u r n : Unusual cash flow forecast s
can lead t o m ore t han one answer for t he I RR
• Re inve st m e n t Ra t e : I nherent in t he I RR calculat ion is t he
assum pt ion t hat funds received during t he proj ect can
im m ediat ely be reinvest ed at t he sam e int erest rat e as t he
I RR. This is not always possible.
• Com pa r ison of t w o or m or e pr oj e ct s: When com paring
t wo or m ore m ut ually exclusive proj ect s will not necessarily
lead t o t he correct choice.
• Size of t h e in ve st m e n t : The I RR cannot different iat e
bet ween differences in t he size of t he invest m ent .
• Tim in g of ca sh flow s: Because of uncert aint y in forecast ,
t here is t he possibilit y t hat t he discount ed value of t he net
cash flows can equal t o zero at m ore t han one int erest rat e.

N e t Ra t e of Re t u r n ( N RR)
• Equat ion:
NRR =

{

Net Present Worth
Discounted Investment Project Life

}

x 100

• The cost of capit al has been t ake care of
in t he NPW calculat ion so t hat t he NRR is
t hen a t rue net ret urn rat e

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Ca pit a lize d Cost s
• Capit alized Cost ( K) is useful for com paring
alt ernat ives which exist as possible invest m ent
choices w it hin a single overall proj ect .
• Capit alized cost relat ed t o invest m ent represent s
t he am ount of m oney t hat m ust be available
init ially t o purchase t he equipm ent and
sim ult aneously provide sufficient funds for
int erest accum ulat ion t o perm it perpet ual
replacem ent of t he equipm ent

Ca pit a lize d cost ….
• Equat ion:
K = Cv









CR
n

1+i − 1

=

C R 1 +i
n

n

1 +i − 1

+V s

K : capit alized cost
Cv : original cost of equipm ent
CR : replacem ent cost
Vs : salvage value at end of est im at ed useful life
n : useful life
i : int erest rat e
( 1+ i) n / ( ( 1+ i) n - 1) = capit alized- cost fact or

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Pe r son a l Assign m e n t ( 1 w e e k )
• Pr oble m : Sebuah perusahaan ingin berinvest asi di bidang
pabrik kim ia. Berikut ini adalah dat a- dat a unt uk analisis
ekonom i:









Fixed Capit al I nvest m ent : $3,600,000
Kapasit as pabr ik: 5,000,000 lb/ year
Periode Konst r uksi : 1 t ahun
Land : $100,000
Working Capit al : $300,000
Proj ect life ( um ur pabrik) : 10 years
Depreciat ion: St raight - line m et hod
Pot ent ial Sales: 4,000,000 lb/ year , dan m eningkat 10% t iap t ahun
hingga ak hir proj ect
– Selling pr ice: &0.80/ lb dalam 2 t ahun pert am a set elah m asa konst ruksi,
dan m eningkat 5% per t ahun unt uk t ahun- t ahun berik ut ny a
– Cash operat ing expenses: $0.25/ lb pada t ahun pert am a set elah m asa
konst ruk si dan m eningkat 3% per t ahun unt uk t ahun- t ahun ber ikut nya.
– I ncom e t ax rat e : 35%

La n j u t a n Tu ga s
• Soal/ Pert anyaan:
– Buat lah Cum m ulat ive Cash Flow unt uk Proj ect di
at as m ulai t ahun ke- 0 ( m asa konst ruksi) hingga
akhir proj ect .
– Hit unglah Payout Tim e ( dalam t ahun)
– Hit unglah Rat e of Ret urn on I nvest m ent ( ROI )
– Hit unglah Discount ed Cash Flow Rat e of Ret urn
( DCFROR)

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