Kuliah 10 vbm
!
"
! # $
% " & % "
Bandi, 2007
1
Current Asset
Net
working
capital
Current Liabilities
Long Liabilities
Fixed Asset
1. Tangible fixed Asset
2. Intangible fixed Asset
Shareholders’ Equity
Not Operating Asset
Total value of Asset
Total value of the firm to investor
Bandi, 2007
2
→
!
%&' (
→&'
)
-
"#
$
#
*+,
&'
Bandi, 2007
3
.
-
) /
1
/ . &
,
"
"
2
%
,
→
" "
# 3
→5 3
" "
,
(
2
%
-
→→
,
→
,
.0
$
# 3
!
,
(
3
4
$
4
6
4
!
#
4
!
4
Bandi, 2007
4
→7)7,
!
→ !
→
→
6 #
6
#
# # 46
,
, &
# # %7
)
, # #
# # 4
8
2
4
!
2 #
#
!
6
VOp =
t =1
&' 8
7)7 8
() 8
!
7 32 7)7(
∞
%&'
#
%!
# # %
# 6
FCFt
(1 + WACC) t
(
3(
%9 ))8 3
Bandi, 2007
!
(
5
%
8
8<
8
6
:
#
;
6
#
;
:
;
%&' (
&'
(8
3
∝
+ ( ," 8 Σ
#
:
%
#
7)7 "*
""""""""""""
;
(8
""
-"*
%*;
)(
7)7 "*
8 """""""""""
% )# (
&' 8
7)7 8
() 8
%!
# # %
# 6
(
3(
%89 ))(
Bandi, 2007
6
&
,
)
5 3
7)7
#
∞
VOp =
t =1
∞
=
t =1
4 =
FCFt
t
(1 + WACC)
t
FCF0 (1 + g )
t
(1 + WACC)
Bandi, 2007
7
)
)
5 3
7
,
#
4
#
>
#
4
VOp =
t =1
#
?
%
∞
=
1+ g
FCF0
1 + WACC
Bandi, 2007
(=
t
8
)
5 3
#
%
,
7
(
FCF1
VOp =
(WACC − g )
FCF0 (1 + g )
=
(WACC − g )
Bandi, 2007
9
)
5 3
7
,)
7)7+ 8 @1+
9 )) 8 *+A
8 BA
#
8 @*++
# 8 @1++
'
!
8 @B+
C 6 8 @1*+
Bandi, 2007
10
&
FCF0 (1 + g )
VOp =
(WACC − g )
20 (1 + 0 .05 )
= 420
VOp =
(0.10 − 0.05 )
Bandi, 2007
11
&
<
C
6
%)
#
&
(
8 @D1+
"
8 @*++
%&
<
# ( 8 @1++
8 @B+
8E
Bandi, 2007
12
&
.
C
!
8&
6
;
=< =
8 @D1+ ; @*++
8 @B1+
&
C
6 8.
"
# "
=
8 @B1+ " @1++ " @B+
8 @1F+
Bandi, 2007
13
&
&
&
% & (,
2
&
8
"
8<
#
&
!
#
G
:.
% & (,
#
#
#
# 6
&
8
." >
8 '0. G % * :
# 6
("
:
Bandi, 2007
#=
14
&
% & (
& 8
#
#
#
8
#
;
;
#
& 8 @B1+ " %@1*+ ; @1++ ; @B+(
8 @H+
Bandi, 2007
15
'
3
)
&
600
MVA
500
Book equity
400
Equity (Market)
300
Preferred stock
200
Debt
100
0
Sources Claims
Market
of Value on Value vs. Book
Bandi, 2007
Marketable
securities
Value of operations
16
G
,
!
7)7(,
5 3
!
(=
# #
6
. * 7)7 8 "@B
. 1 7)7 8 @*+
. I 7)7 8 @1+
7)7
#
/
*+A=
#
%
@D+
3 2
%
=
=
HA
# 6
*+
%9 ))(4 4
#
Bandi, 2007
I=
=
17
?
4
3
%# 6
%
# #
%
=
#
4
#
+=
#
(
&
?
(
# #
?
?
#
#4
? (=
Bandi, 2007
# %I
#
# #
#
(4
18
?
&
7
FCFt (1 + g )
HV = VOp at time t =
(WACC − g )
?
#
!
4
=
Bandi, 2007
19
Value of operations by discounting the free
cash flows at the cost of capital.
0
1
rc=10%
2
3
4
g = 6%
FCF=
-5.00
10.00
20.00
21.2
-4.545
8.264
15.026
Vop at 3
398.197
416.942
=
Vop
Bandi, 2007
$21.2
=
= $530.
0 .10 − 0.06
20
=
%&
C
62& ( 8
8
:
8 @D*H=JD " @D+
8 @IFH=JD
=
#
8 @IFH=JD 2*+ 8 @IF=HJ=
Bandi, 2007
21
&
"'
%&' (
&'
.
=
&'
&
% & (
Bandi, 2007
22
&
7
&
!
&
%
!
#
#
%
8
%)
6
)/8
9
(,
C
2<
!
.2<
(
48
(
%9 ))(
Bandi, 2007
23
&
"' <
#
→ # #
= ,
5
. G 2
%
,
#
6 K
.
→→
.
6
#
# 6 #
4#
6
#
. 8 '0. G %* : . G
#
.(
6
4
<
# #
(
!
*= /
1= /
-/
C
%
(
#
C
%
2 )/(
)/ 8 """"""""""""""""""""""""""
-/
#
.
. 8 """""""""""""
G 2
%
.(
'0. %* : .(
8 """""""""""""""""""
Bandi, 2007
24
&
)
5 3
7
MVA t =
Sales t (1 + g )
WACC − g
CR
OP − WACC
(1 + g )
Bandi, 2007
25
0
)
5 3
&
% = =4
#
6
6
#
#
!
*++A(
#
=
Sales t (1 + g )
WACC − g
Bandi, 2007
26
0
)
5 3
#
% #
4
A( 6
6
6
!
6
%
!
(=
CR
OP − WACC
(1 + g )
Bandi, 2007
27
0
!
&
!
&
&
,
9 ))
#
%
(
6
# 62
%
%
Bandi, 2007
C
%)/(
28
.
0
5 3
%
#
(#
4
#
6
6
4
4
6
!
CR
OP − WACC
(1 + g )
Bandi, 2007
29
.
0
5 3
>
4
4
#
#
& =
6
6
>
!
4
#
& =
Bandi, 2007
30
G
/
)
0 !
% / 0)(
/
6
!
.6
6
#
!
,
NOPATt +1
EROIC t =
Capital t
Bandi, 2007
31
&
.
G
/ 0)
Capital t [EROIC t − WACC]
MVA t =
WACC − g
Jika selisih (spread) antara return
ekspektasian, EROICt, dan return yg
disyaratkan, WACC, adl positif, maka
MVA positif dan pertumbuhan
menjadikan MVA lbh besar. Sebaliknya
(MVA lbh kecil) jika selisih tsb negatif
Bandi, 2007
32
.
0
5 3
#
*+A=
!
! =
6
@*4+++4
#
BA4
9 )) #
#
6
C
!
&
'
%
8HA(
%
2)/8FLA(=
#
6
Bandi, 2007
% 8DA(
%)/81FA(=
33
9
3
BA
!
HA
FLA
BA
%I++=+(
)/
5 3
&
,
&
HAE
!
HA
FLA
HA
%IH+=+(
'
DA
1FA
BA
I++=+
DA
1FA
HA
ILB=+
&
MVAt =
Salest (1 + g)
CR
OP − WACC
WACC− g
(1 + g)
Bandi, 2007
34
G
/ 0)
!
)
@FL+
@FL+
+
5 3
BA
HA
<
@*4+B+ @*4+H+
*
.*
@HI @HI=H
/ 0)+ L=*A L=1A
&
%I++=+( %IH+=+(
Bandi, 2007
&
!
@1F+
BA
@*4+B+
@D1
*B=HA
I++=+
'
@1F+
HA
@*4+H+
@D1=D
*B=FA
ILB=+
35
6
5 3
/ 0)
!
!
%
#
#
9 ))4
6
(
#
/ 0)
% = =4
2
6
(
#
<
=
/ 0)
!
!
#
#
' # #
6
9 ))4
6
Bandi, 2007
36
.3
)
<
6
5 !
$
!
%
(6
#
%#
3
)
%
,
!
(=
(=
=
Bandi, 2007
37
.
6
#
%
(
6
=
# #,
"
!
%
!
(
3
6
Bandi, 2007
38
3
E
#
,
!
<
#
#
6
%
#
# (
6
(
#
#
&
%
# #
4
=
Bandi, 2007
39
".
#
% = =4
!
(
/
!
!
#
(
6
% = =4
#
Bandi, 2007
40
'
3
#
% = =4
6
6
(
#
3
#
'
=
6
(
#
#
%0
#
%)
3
3
Bandi, 2007
'4 )
(=
41
<
)
#
4
#
%
'
2 G
#
6
# #
(=
#
(#
%
%
#
3
4
M
!
G
(
.
%
#
(=
Bandi, 2007
42
"
! # $
% " & % "
Bandi, 2007
1
Current Asset
Net
working
capital
Current Liabilities
Long Liabilities
Fixed Asset
1. Tangible fixed Asset
2. Intangible fixed Asset
Shareholders’ Equity
Not Operating Asset
Total value of Asset
Total value of the firm to investor
Bandi, 2007
2
→
!
%&' (
→&'
)
-
"#
$
#
*+,
&'
Bandi, 2007
3
.
-
) /
1
/ . &
,
"
"
2
%
,
→
" "
# 3
→5 3
" "
,
(
2
%
-
→→
,
→
,
.0
$
# 3
!
,
(
3
4
$
4
6
4
!
#
4
!
4
Bandi, 2007
4
→7)7,
!
→ !
→
→
6 #
6
#
# # 46
,
, &
# # %7
)
, # #
# # 4
8
2
4
!
2 #
#
!
6
VOp =
t =1
&' 8
7)7 8
() 8
!
7 32 7)7(
∞
%&'
#
%!
# # %
# 6
FCFt
(1 + WACC) t
(
3(
%9 ))8 3
Bandi, 2007
!
(
5
%
8
8<
8
6
:
#
;
6
#
;
:
;
%&' (
&'
(8
3
∝
+ ( ," 8 Σ
#
:
%
#
7)7 "*
""""""""""""
;
(8
""
-"*
%*;
)(
7)7 "*
8 """""""""""
% )# (
&' 8
7)7 8
() 8
%!
# # %
# 6
(
3(
%89 ))(
Bandi, 2007
6
&
,
)
5 3
7)7
#
∞
VOp =
t =1
∞
=
t =1
4 =
FCFt
t
(1 + WACC)
t
FCF0 (1 + g )
t
(1 + WACC)
Bandi, 2007
7
)
)
5 3
7
,
#
4
#
>
#
4
VOp =
t =1
#
?
%
∞
=
1+ g
FCF0
1 + WACC
Bandi, 2007
(=
t
8
)
5 3
#
%
,
7
(
FCF1
VOp =
(WACC − g )
FCF0 (1 + g )
=
(WACC − g )
Bandi, 2007
9
)
5 3
7
,)
7)7+ 8 @1+
9 )) 8 *+A
8 BA
#
8 @*++
# 8 @1++
'
!
8 @B+
C 6 8 @1*+
Bandi, 2007
10
&
FCF0 (1 + g )
VOp =
(WACC − g )
20 (1 + 0 .05 )
= 420
VOp =
(0.10 − 0.05 )
Bandi, 2007
11
&
<
C
6
%)
#
&
(
8 @D1+
"
8 @*++
%&
<
# ( 8 @1++
8 @B+
8E
Bandi, 2007
12
&
.
C
!
8&
6
;
=< =
8 @D1+ ; @*++
8 @B1+
&
C
6 8.
"
# "
=
8 @B1+ " @1++ " @B+
8 @1F+
Bandi, 2007
13
&
&
&
% & (,
2
&
8
"
8<
#
&
!
#
G
:.
% & (,
#
#
#
# 6
&
8
." >
8 '0. G % * :
# 6
("
:
Bandi, 2007
#=
14
&
% & (
& 8
#
#
#
8
#
;
;
#
& 8 @B1+ " %@1*+ ; @1++ ; @B+(
8 @H+
Bandi, 2007
15
'
3
)
&
600
MVA
500
Book equity
400
Equity (Market)
300
Preferred stock
200
Debt
100
0
Sources Claims
Market
of Value on Value vs. Book
Bandi, 2007
Marketable
securities
Value of operations
16
G
,
!
7)7(,
5 3
!
(=
# #
6
. * 7)7 8 "@B
. 1 7)7 8 @*+
. I 7)7 8 @1+
7)7
#
/
*+A=
#
%
@D+
3 2
%
=
=
HA
# 6
*+
%9 ))(4 4
#
Bandi, 2007
I=
=
17
?
4
3
%# 6
%
# #
%
=
#
4
#
+=
#
(
&
?
(
# #
?
?
#
#4
? (=
Bandi, 2007
# %I
#
# #
#
(4
18
?
&
7
FCFt (1 + g )
HV = VOp at time t =
(WACC − g )
?
#
!
4
=
Bandi, 2007
19
Value of operations by discounting the free
cash flows at the cost of capital.
0
1
rc=10%
2
3
4
g = 6%
FCF=
-5.00
10.00
20.00
21.2
-4.545
8.264
15.026
Vop at 3
398.197
416.942
=
Vop
Bandi, 2007
$21.2
=
= $530.
0 .10 − 0.06
20
=
%&
C
62& ( 8
8
:
8 @D*H=JD " @D+
8 @IFH=JD
=
#
8 @IFH=JD 2*+ 8 @IF=HJ=
Bandi, 2007
21
&
"'
%&' (
&'
.
=
&'
&
% & (
Bandi, 2007
22
&
7
&
!
&
%
!
#
#
%
8
%)
6
)/8
9
(,
C
2<
!
.2<
(
48
(
%9 ))(
Bandi, 2007
23
&
"' <
#
→ # #
= ,
5
. G 2
%
,
#
6 K
.
→→
.
6
#
# 6 #
4#
6
#
. 8 '0. G %* : . G
#
.(
6
4
<
# #
(
!
*= /
1= /
-/
C
%
(
#
C
%
2 )/(
)/ 8 """"""""""""""""""""""""""
-/
#
.
. 8 """""""""""""
G 2
%
.(
'0. %* : .(
8 """""""""""""""""""
Bandi, 2007
24
&
)
5 3
7
MVA t =
Sales t (1 + g )
WACC − g
CR
OP − WACC
(1 + g )
Bandi, 2007
25
0
)
5 3
&
% = =4
#
6
6
#
#
!
*++A(
#
=
Sales t (1 + g )
WACC − g
Bandi, 2007
26
0
)
5 3
#
% #
4
A( 6
6
6
!
6
%
!
(=
CR
OP − WACC
(1 + g )
Bandi, 2007
27
0
!
&
!
&
&
,
9 ))
#
%
(
6
# 62
%
%
Bandi, 2007
C
%)/(
28
.
0
5 3
%
#
(#
4
#
6
6
4
4
6
!
CR
OP − WACC
(1 + g )
Bandi, 2007
29
.
0
5 3
>
4
4
#
#
& =
6
6
>
!
4
#
& =
Bandi, 2007
30
G
/
)
0 !
% / 0)(
/
6
!
.6
6
#
!
,
NOPATt +1
EROIC t =
Capital t
Bandi, 2007
31
&
.
G
/ 0)
Capital t [EROIC t − WACC]
MVA t =
WACC − g
Jika selisih (spread) antara return
ekspektasian, EROICt, dan return yg
disyaratkan, WACC, adl positif, maka
MVA positif dan pertumbuhan
menjadikan MVA lbh besar. Sebaliknya
(MVA lbh kecil) jika selisih tsb negatif
Bandi, 2007
32
.
0
5 3
#
*+A=
!
! =
6
@*4+++4
#
BA4
9 )) #
#
6
C
!
&
'
%
8HA(
%
2)/8FLA(=
#
6
Bandi, 2007
% 8DA(
%)/81FA(=
33
9
3
BA
!
HA
FLA
BA
%I++=+(
)/
5 3
&
,
&
HAE
!
HA
FLA
HA
%IH+=+(
'
DA
1FA
BA
I++=+
DA
1FA
HA
ILB=+
&
MVAt =
Salest (1 + g)
CR
OP − WACC
WACC− g
(1 + g)
Bandi, 2007
34
G
/ 0)
!
)
@FL+
@FL+
+
5 3
BA
HA
<
@*4+B+ @*4+H+
*
.*
@HI @HI=H
/ 0)+ L=*A L=1A
&
%I++=+( %IH+=+(
Bandi, 2007
&
!
@1F+
BA
@*4+B+
@D1
*B=HA
I++=+
'
@1F+
HA
@*4+H+
@D1=D
*B=FA
ILB=+
35
6
5 3
/ 0)
!
!
%
#
#
9 ))4
6
(
#
/ 0)
% = =4
2
6
(
#
<
=
/ 0)
!
!
#
#
' # #
6
9 ))4
6
Bandi, 2007
36
.3
)
<
6
5 !
$
!
%
(6
#
%#
3
)
%
,
!
(=
(=
=
Bandi, 2007
37
.
6
#
%
(
6
=
# #,
"
!
%
!
(
3
6
Bandi, 2007
38
3
E
#
,
!
<
#
#
6
%
#
# (
6
(
#
#
&
%
# #
4
=
Bandi, 2007
39
".
#
% = =4
!
(
/
!
!
#
(
6
% = =4
#
Bandi, 2007
40
'
3
#
% = =4
6
6
(
#
3
#
'
=
6
(
#
#
%0
#
%)
3
3
Bandi, 2007
'4 )
(=
41
<
)
#
4
#
%
'
2 G
#
6
# #
(=
#
(#
%
%
#
3
4
M
!
G
(
.
%
#
(=
Bandi, 2007
42