Berita investasi, saham, reksadana dan perencanaan keuangan
Premier Insight
26 January 2018
Corporates
JCI Index
6,700
12,000
6,600
10,000
6,500
JCI Index
8,000
Rp bn
6,400
6,000
6,300
CTRA : Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ; Rp1,250; Buy) set a conservative target
for FY18 with flat marketing sales of Rp7.6tn in FY17. CTRA allege that FY17
marketing sales was helped by a one off block sales worth Rp675bn. However,
company targets FY18 revenue to grow by 15-20% as some of the sales made in
FY17 will be recognized in FY18. (Bisnis Indonesia).
4,000
6,200
Comment: This marketing sales target is way below our FY18 target by 44%. We
will review our call and forecast for CTRA given FY18 conservative growth.
2,000
6,100
25-Jan
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
9-Jan
11-Jan
8-Jan
10-Jan
5-Jan
4-Jan
3-Jan
2-Jan
29-Dec
28-Dec
27-Dec
-
22-Dec
6,000
Foreign net buy (sell)
2,500
50%
2,000
30%
1,000
20%
500
10%
25-Jan
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
(500)
11-Jan
0%
% net buy/market turnover
40%
1,500
Net buy (sell) in Rp bn
Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily
News & Analysis
-10%
(1,000)
(1,500)
Comment: We take neutral stance on this merger, since structure and valuation is
not declared. The Government need to be clear how to create new synergy from
these new structure.
-20%
Key Indexes
Index
Closing
1 day
1 year
YTD
JCI
6,615
0.0%
24.4%
4.1%
LQ45
1,118
- 0.6%
25.7%
3.6%
6.8%
DJI
26,393
0.5%
31.3%
SET
1,819
- 1.1%
14.3%
3.7%
HSI
32,654
- 0.9%
39.7%
9.1%
NKY
23,669
- 1.1%
22.0%
4.2%
FTSE
7,616
- 0.4%
6.3%
-0.9%
FSSTI
3,609
0.0%
18.3%
5.0%
30
- 0.1%
23.3%
6.4%
EIDO
Commodity price
Commodities
Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI)
65.6
-0.2%
25.6%
641.2
-1.1%
-20.2%
Soy/bushel
9.7
-0.2%
-6.6%
Rubber/kg
1.7
1.6%
-40.6%
Nickel/tonne
13,663
0.9%
41.7%
Tins/tonne
21,640
1.6%
6.1%
Copper/tonne
7,101
-0.1%
19.9%
Gold/try.oz (Spot)
1,348
-0.8%
13.4%
Coal/tonne
106.5
-0.4%
27.2%
3.3
-0.6%
-5.7%
434.5
0.3%
2.4%
CPO/tonne
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel (USd)
PGAS: Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ; Rp2,650; Hold) received shareholder’s
approval for restructuring with Pertamina to form oil and gas holding company.
Within 60 days, the Government has to issue government regulation to govern
this corporate action. It is likely, that this holding will adopt the previous scheme
of the mining holding. Up to this point nothing has been mentioned about
Pertagas merger and whether oil and gas asset under Saka energy will need to be
spin off. (Kontan).
TOWR: Menara Sarana (TOWR IJ; Rp3,880; Buy) reported that Sapta Adhikari
Investama (SAI), its main shareholder increase its holding from 48.8% to
50.03%, following its increase from 32.7% to 48.8% in Nov17. SAI is an
investment vehicle fully owned by Hartono family (Djarum Group). According to
the official filling, SAI bought 125mn shares at Rp3,930.
WIKA: Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ; Rp2,110; Buy) received a loan from China
Development Bank (CDB) worth US$594 for High Speed Railway (HSR) JakartaBandung Project. The mega project will have total contract worth of Rp70.8tn.
(Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: The loan disbursement will positively impact WIKA, as the company
would be able to resume the HSR construction which was experienced delay in
2017. Reiterate Buy on WIKA with TP of Rp2,900.
Markets & Sector
Mining sector: China nickel import jumped 116% yoy to 41.3k tons (nickel
content) in Dec’17 after the government of China reduced import tax for nickel
sulfate from 5.5% to 2% in Dec’17. Nickel sulfate is mostly used for NCM and
NCA batteries for electric vehicles. (SMM).
Source : Bloomberg
Comment: Positive sentiment for nickel which reached US$13,700 per ton
yesterday. Several data that we follow indicate rising nickel demand in China for
non-stainless steel applications, mostly for electric vehicle battery. We maintain
our positive view for Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ; Rp3,660; Buy) while reviewing our
forecast and valuation for the company.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
PremierInsight
Economic
Reference rate: BI governor Agus Martowardojo says that the central bank has
limited room to undertake rate cut, given the US’ plan to increase its benchmark
rate. Therefore, measures will be directed toward other monetary instruments, as
what happened early in Jan18’s meeting. (Jakarta Globe).
Comment: This is the first time Governor Agus publicly speaks about the central
bank’s rate preference for the year albeit the guidance has been rather clear
given its move earlier. We think this signals BI’s preference in the few months
ahead regarding its rate guidance.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any
securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
26 January 2018
Corporates
JCI Index
6,700
12,000
6,600
10,000
6,500
JCI Index
8,000
Rp bn
6,400
6,000
6,300
CTRA : Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ; Rp1,250; Buy) set a conservative target
for FY18 with flat marketing sales of Rp7.6tn in FY17. CTRA allege that FY17
marketing sales was helped by a one off block sales worth Rp675bn. However,
company targets FY18 revenue to grow by 15-20% as some of the sales made in
FY17 will be recognized in FY18. (Bisnis Indonesia).
4,000
6,200
Comment: This marketing sales target is way below our FY18 target by 44%. We
will review our call and forecast for CTRA given FY18 conservative growth.
2,000
6,100
25-Jan
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
9-Jan
11-Jan
8-Jan
10-Jan
5-Jan
4-Jan
3-Jan
2-Jan
29-Dec
28-Dec
27-Dec
-
22-Dec
6,000
Foreign net buy (sell)
2,500
50%
2,000
30%
1,000
20%
500
10%
25-Jan
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
(500)
11-Jan
0%
% net buy/market turnover
40%
1,500
Net buy (sell) in Rp bn
Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily
News & Analysis
-10%
(1,000)
(1,500)
Comment: We take neutral stance on this merger, since structure and valuation is
not declared. The Government need to be clear how to create new synergy from
these new structure.
-20%
Key Indexes
Index
Closing
1 day
1 year
YTD
JCI
6,615
0.0%
24.4%
4.1%
LQ45
1,118
- 0.6%
25.7%
3.6%
6.8%
DJI
26,393
0.5%
31.3%
SET
1,819
- 1.1%
14.3%
3.7%
HSI
32,654
- 0.9%
39.7%
9.1%
NKY
23,669
- 1.1%
22.0%
4.2%
FTSE
7,616
- 0.4%
6.3%
-0.9%
FSSTI
3,609
0.0%
18.3%
5.0%
30
- 0.1%
23.3%
6.4%
EIDO
Commodity price
Commodities
Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI)
65.6
-0.2%
25.6%
641.2
-1.1%
-20.2%
Soy/bushel
9.7
-0.2%
-6.6%
Rubber/kg
1.7
1.6%
-40.6%
Nickel/tonne
13,663
0.9%
41.7%
Tins/tonne
21,640
1.6%
6.1%
Copper/tonne
7,101
-0.1%
19.9%
Gold/try.oz (Spot)
1,348
-0.8%
13.4%
Coal/tonne
106.5
-0.4%
27.2%
3.3
-0.6%
-5.7%
434.5
0.3%
2.4%
CPO/tonne
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel (USd)
PGAS: Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ; Rp2,650; Hold) received shareholder’s
approval for restructuring with Pertamina to form oil and gas holding company.
Within 60 days, the Government has to issue government regulation to govern
this corporate action. It is likely, that this holding will adopt the previous scheme
of the mining holding. Up to this point nothing has been mentioned about
Pertagas merger and whether oil and gas asset under Saka energy will need to be
spin off. (Kontan).
TOWR: Menara Sarana (TOWR IJ; Rp3,880; Buy) reported that Sapta Adhikari
Investama (SAI), its main shareholder increase its holding from 48.8% to
50.03%, following its increase from 32.7% to 48.8% in Nov17. SAI is an
investment vehicle fully owned by Hartono family (Djarum Group). According to
the official filling, SAI bought 125mn shares at Rp3,930.
WIKA: Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ; Rp2,110; Buy) received a loan from China
Development Bank (CDB) worth US$594 for High Speed Railway (HSR) JakartaBandung Project. The mega project will have total contract worth of Rp70.8tn.
(Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: The loan disbursement will positively impact WIKA, as the company
would be able to resume the HSR construction which was experienced delay in
2017. Reiterate Buy on WIKA with TP of Rp2,900.
Markets & Sector
Mining sector: China nickel import jumped 116% yoy to 41.3k tons (nickel
content) in Dec’17 after the government of China reduced import tax for nickel
sulfate from 5.5% to 2% in Dec’17. Nickel sulfate is mostly used for NCM and
NCA batteries for electric vehicles. (SMM).
Source : Bloomberg
Comment: Positive sentiment for nickel which reached US$13,700 per ton
yesterday. Several data that we follow indicate rising nickel demand in China for
non-stainless steel applications, mostly for electric vehicle battery. We maintain
our positive view for Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ; Rp3,660; Buy) while reviewing our
forecast and valuation for the company.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
PremierInsight
Economic
Reference rate: BI governor Agus Martowardojo says that the central bank has
limited room to undertake rate cut, given the US’ plan to increase its benchmark
rate. Therefore, measures will be directed toward other monetary instruments, as
what happened early in Jan18’s meeting. (Jakarta Globe).
Comment: This is the first time Governor Agus publicly speaks about the central
bank’s rate preference for the year albeit the guidance has been rather clear
given its move earlier. We think this signals BI’s preference in the few months
ahead regarding its rate guidance.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any
securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.