ANALISIS PREFERENSI MERK LAPTOP MAHASISWA UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO MENGGUNAKAN MODEL LOGIT TERSARANG - Diponegoro University | Institutional Repository (UNDIP-IR)
ANALISIS PREFERENSI MERK LAPTOP
MAHASISWA UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
MENGGUNAKAN MODEL LOGIT TERSARANG
SKRIPSI
Disusun oleh:
AIN HAFIDITA
J2E 009 021
JURUSAN STATISTIKA
FAKULTAS SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA
UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
SEMARANG
2014
ANALISIS PREFERENSI MERK LAPTOP
MAHASISWA UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
MENGGUNAKAN MODEL LOGIT TERSARANG
Disusun Oleh :
AIN HAFIDITA
J2E 009 021
Skripsi
Sebagai Salah Satu Syarat untuk Memperoleh Gelar
Sarjana Sains pada Jurusan Statistika
JURUSAN STATISTIKA
FAKULTAS SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA
UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
SEMARANG
2014
KATA PENGANTAR
Puji syukur kehadirat Allah SWT yang telah memberikan rahmat, hidayah,
dan karunia-Nya sehingga penulis dapat menyelesaikan penulisan skripsi dengan
judul Analisis Preferensi Merk Laptop Mahasiswa Universitas Diponegoro
Menggunakan Model Logit Tersarang.
Penulis menyadari skripsi ini tidak akan dapat diselesaikan tanpa bantuan
dari berbagai pihak. Oleh karena itu, penulis ingin menyampaikan terima kasih
kepada:
1. Ibu Dra. Hj. Dwi Ispriyanti, M. Si. selaku Ketua Jurusan Statistika Fakultas
Sains dan Matematika Universitas Diponegoro dan dosen pembimbing II.
2. Bapak Drs. Agus Rusgiyono, M. Si. selaku dosen pembimbing I.
3. Bapak/Ibu dosen jurusan statistika yang telah memberikan arahan dan
masukan demi perbaikan penulisan skripsi ini.
4. Semua pihak yang telah membantu dalam penulisan skripsi ini.
Semarang,
Agustus 2014
Penulis
bstract
s rapidly evolving information technology affects mostly the
change of people s choice in electronic devices (gadget) usage, especially laptops.
Addressing this phenomenon, laptop manufacturers are competing to create
innovative products to reach various elements of the consumer. Nested logit,
which sorts the alternatives based on common properties into smaller groups
(nests) and has a level so as to form a tree structure, is a method that can be used
to model consumer preferences. Alternatives may have either unique or common
characteristics that describe properties or components so called attributes. In this
study, laptop brands are treated as alternatives and classified by the operating
system. This research concluded that the most favorite brand is Asus (25.35 %),
followed by Toshiba (22.81%), Lenovo (14.27%), HP (13.90%), Acer (12.40%)
and the least is Macbook (11.27%). Attributes that significantly affect the brand
preferences are laptop classification and warranty, while color is considered
insignificant.
Keywords: Laptop Brand Preferences, Nested Logit, Attribute, Level.
vi
D
F R
v
!
v
! CT ....................................................................................................
vi
DAFTAR ISI ...................................................................................................
vii
DAFTAR TABEL............................................................................................
xi
DAFTAR GAMBAR ......................................................................................
xii
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN ...................................................................................
xiii
BAB I
BAB II
PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakang .....................................................................
1
1.2 Rumusan Masalah ................................................................
4
1.3 Pembatasan Masalah ............................................................
4
1.4 Tujuan Penelitian .................................................................
4
TINJAUAN PUSTAKA
2.1 Pengambilan Keputusan .......................................................
5
2.2 Fungsi Utilitas ......................................................................
6
2.2.1
Definisi .....................................................................
6
2.2.2
Fungsi Utilitas Relatif ..............................................
6
2.3 Model Logit Multinomial ....................................................
7
2$3$%
&#'ts#()*# +),(-. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
/$0$/ 123-4-23-2*# 5.-t 2r 6#t7 6yn8 9#36: ;-.-v6n
$$$$$$$$$$$
/$0$0 +6.6t6y28 123-4-23-2 362 ?3-. @?8#t9-'*6'628 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
11
2$4$%
&-7#2#*# $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %%
/$A$/ @-"-. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %/
/$A$0 B66r ,--t rC:6.6 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
2$4$A
13
D#.6# 12:.)*#7 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %0
/$A$E >?3-. F#t.#t6s ;623?, $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
14
2$4$G
1E
B-2H6(6'62 C't ):=)' B?I?2 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
/$A$J K-or.6*# L)28*# F#t.#6t s
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
17
/$A$M 123-4-23-2*# 5.-t 2r 6#t7 6yn8 9#36: ;-.-v6nN115O 4636
>?3-. @o8#t9-*r 6r6n8
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %7
/$A$P +6.6t6yn8 123--p23-n36n?3-. @o8#t9-sr6r628
3-#nt: N11&O
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %8
/$A$%Q R7-: >6Hr#26. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
19
/$A$%% R*=#,6*# B66r ,--t r $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ /%
/$E FH# C#82#7#:62*# >?3-. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ 0%
2$G
/$E$% FH# S6)*,62 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
31
2$E$/
FH# ;6*#? @#:-.#I??3 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
32
2$E$0
FH# T6.3 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
32
B-'62U62862 &-*6#2 K)-*#?2-' $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
33
2$6.1
33
Konsep Orthogonalitas .............................................
"###
2.6.2
Menentukan Ukuran Desain .....................................
33
2.6.3
Uji Multikolinearitas ................................................
34
BAB III METODOLOGI PENELITIAN
3.1 Tempat dan Waktu Pelaksanaan Penelitian .........................
36
3.2 Instrumen Penelitian ............................................................
36
3.3 Teknik Pengambilan Sampel ...............................................
36
3.4 Alternatif ..............................................................................
37
3.5 Atribut ..................................................................................
38
3.5.1 Klasifikasi Laptop ....................................................
38
3.5.2 Garansi .....................................................................
41
3.5.3
Warna .......................................................................
42
3.6
Langkah-Langkah Penelitian ...............................................
42
3.7
Diagram Alur (Flowchart) Penelitian ..................................
43
BAB IV PEMBAHASAN
4.1 Uji Multikolinearitas ............................................................
45
4.2 Analisis Deskriptif ...............................................................
45
4.3 Model Logit Tersarang .........................................................
47
4.3.1 Struktur Pohon .........................................................
47
4.3.2 Model Awal .............................................................
48
4.3.2.1 Uji Hausman .............................................
48
4.3.2.2 Uji Rasio Likelihood .................................
49
4.3.2.3
Uji Wald ....................................................
50
Model Akhir .............................................................
51
4.3.3
Vx
4.3.3.1
Uji Hausman .............................................
51
4.3.3.2
Uji Rasio Likelihood .................................
52
4.3.3.3 Uji Wald ....................................................
53
Penjabaran Struktur Pohon .......................................
54
4.3.4.1
Level 1 ......................................................
54
4.3.4.2
Level 2 ......................................................
56
4.3.4.3
Model Preferensi .......................................
57
4.3.4.4
Efek Marjinal ............................................
61
4.3.4.5
Korelasi Fungsi Utilitas ............................
62
KESIMPULAN ............................................................................
64
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ....................................................................................
65
LAMPIRAN ...................................................................................................
66
4.3.4
BAB V
x
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 3.1
Halaman
Proporsi Mahasiswa ................................................................... 37
Tabel 3.2 Alternatif ...................................................................................... 37
Tabel 3.3 Atribut .......................................................................................... 38
Tabel 3.4 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop HP .................................. 39
Tabel 3.5 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Toshiba ........................... 39
Tabel 3.6 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Asus ................................ 39
Tabel 3.7 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Acer ................................ 40
Tabel 3.8 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Lenovo ........................... 40
Tabel 3.9 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Macbook ........................ 40
Tabel 3.10 Komposisi Atribut Garansi HP .................................................. 41
Tabel 3.11 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Toshiba ........................................... 41
Tabel 3.12 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Asus ............................................... 41
Tabel 3.13 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Acer ................................................ 41
Tabel 3.14 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Lenovo ........................................... 41
Tabel 3.15 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Macbook ........................................ 42
Tabel 4.1 Uji Multikolinearitas ................................................................... 45
Tabel 4.2 Uji Wald Model Awal ................................................................. 50
Tabel 4.3 Uji Wald Model Akhir ................................................................. 53
Tabel 4.4 Proporsi Probabilitas Alternatif ................................................... 61
xi
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Halaman
Gambar 2.1 Struktur Pohon Logit Tersarang dengan 2 Level ..................... 12
Gambar 3.1 Diagram Alur (Flowchart) Penelitian........................................ 44
Gambar 4.1 Pohon Logit Tersarang 2 Level Preferensi Merk Laptop .......... 47
xii
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Halaman
Lampiran I
Kuesioner Penelitian ............................................................ 66
Lampiran III
Karakteristik Responden ...................................................... 75
Lampiran II
Lampiran IV
Lampiran V
Lampiran VI
Data Responden ................................................................... 72
Syntax dan Output Program NLOGIT ................................. 77
Nilai Utilitas Relatif dan Probabilitas .................................. 83
Efek Marjinal ....................................................................... 94
xiii
XYX Z
[\]^Y_`a`Y]
bcb adedf Xghdidjk
lmnopqprs sotpuvwxs ywor ymunmvywor zmxw{ |m}wxw sos {~u~{ vmvzmorwu~s
zmu~ywwo zpqw s|~z vwxywuwnw{ ywsn |wqwv wq ymunpv~osnwxs ymqwwu ymnmuw
ymuysxosx |wo qwso xmywrwsoyw lmnopqprs sotpuvwxs |s|mtsosxsnwo xmywrws
{mnopqprs wyor |sr~ownwo ~o{~n vmorpqw |w{w {muvwx~n vmvzupxmx
vmo|wzw{nwo vmo~yx~o vmosyvzwo vm orpqw |w{w |wqwv ymuywrws wuw ~o{~n
vmorwxsqnwo sotpuvwxs wyor ymun~wqs{wx wyor |sr~ownwo ~o{~n nmzmuq~wo
zusyw|s zmo|s|snwo ysxosx |wo zmvmuso{wwo munmvyworwo |s ys|wor {mnopqprs
sotpuvwxs sos |wzw{ |sqsw{ |wus rwwy s|~z vwxwyuwnw{ wyor {s|wn y
sxw qmzwx |wus
wqw{ ywo{~ {mnopqprs xmzmu{s {mqmzpo rmorrwv npvz~{mu qwz{pz |wo xmywrwsowy
Kmvw~wo
.
{mnopqprs sotpuvwxs vmvyw}w |wvzwn ywor ymxwu zw|w ysxosx ywor
ymurmuwn |s xmn{pu {muxmy~{ xmzmu{s zmo~wqwo zmuwornw{ nmuwx |wo zmuwornw{ q~own
npvz~{mu wxw zmvy~w{wo zpu{wq }my so mo{pus |wo qwsoqwso
wqw xw{~ {umo ywor vmu~zwnwo mtmn |wus vmosornw{owy nmy~{~wo wnwo
{mnopqprs |wqwv |~osw nmuw w|wqw
(Bring Your Own Device)
w|wqw {umo zmnmuw zuptmxspowq vmvyw}w zmuwornw{ vmumnw xmo|sus ~o{~n ymnmuw
|wo vmorwnxmx wzqsnwxs |s nwo{pu mopvmow sos |s{su~ pqm nwqworwo vwwxsx}w
|morwo vmvyw}w |wo vmorr~ownwo qwz{pz zusyw|s |s nwvz~x wor ymuwnsyw{
zw|w qpownwo zmuvso{wwo {muw|wz qwz{pz
W
My
¡
¢ ¢ £
¤ ¥ £ yy
y ¦¤ § y
¦ y y ¨y M© H¥ ª
«¨¬¨ «© ¢ ® «¯ °¤ §°°
° ° ±°
£
° ² © ° ¤
ª °
° ± ¤ ³± © ±
°
£
© £ £ ² ¤ ´ ° £
±
¤
³ ©
© ¡ ° °¤ ¨
°
¤ µ
(¢ )
© ¢¡¢
± ° © °
¶
·¸¹º»¹ ¼»½»¹º ¾nest¿ ·»¹ À¸ÀÁÂÁÃÁ ÄÁ¹ºÃ»Ä»¹ ¾Â¸Å¸Â¿ ¼¸ÆÁ¹ºº» À¸ÀǸ¹ÄÈà ¼¸ÇÈ»Æ
¼Ä½ÈÃÄȽ ÉÊÆʹ ¾H¸¹¼Æ¸½Ë ¸Ä.»Â.Ë 2005¿. ̸ÄÁ»É Å»½Á»Ç¸Â ½¸¼Éʹ ¾»Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ¿ À¸ÀÁÂÁÃÁ
»Ä½ÁÇÈÄ »Ä»È û½»Ãĸ½Á¼ÄÁà »y¹º À¸¹ºº»ÀÇ»½Ã»¹ ¼ÁÍ»Ä »Ä»È ÃÊÀÉʹ¸¹ »y¹º
ĸ½Ã»¹·È¹º ·»Â»À »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Ä¸½¼¸ÇÈÄ »y¹º ·»É»Ä Ǹ½¼ÁÍ»Ä È¹Áà ¹»Àȹ ÎȺ» ·»É»Ä
ÉÈ» À¸ÀÁÂÁÃÁ ø¼»À»»¹ ·¸¹º»¹ »Ä½ÁÇÈÄ ·»½Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Â»Á¹. ÏÊ·¸Â ÂʺÁÄ Ä¸½¼»½»¹º
Ç»Áà ·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ û½¸¹» ·»É»Ä À¸Âʹºº»½Ã»¹ »¼ÈÀ¼Á Á¹·¸É¸¹·¸¹¼Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ »y¹º
ÄÁ·»Ã ½¸Â¸Å»¹ ¾»¼ÈÀ¼Á IIп »y¹º Ǹ½¼ÁÍ»Ä À¸ÀÇ »Ä»¼Á É»·» ɸÀÊ·¸Â»¹ ÉÁÂÁÆ»¹.
мÈÀ¼Á Á¹Á À¸¹»yĻû¹ Ç»ÆÑ» ½»¼ÁÊ É½ÊÇ»ÇÁÂÁÄ»¼ øĸ½ÉÁÂÁÆ»¹ ¼¸Ç»½»¹º É»¼»¹º»¹
»Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Ç¸½¼ÁÍ»Ä Á¹·¸É¸¹·¸¹ ĸ½Æ»·»É øǸ½»·»»¹ ·»¹ »Ä½ÁÇÈÄ ·»½Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Â»Á¹Ò
H»¹»y »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ »y¹º
Ǹ½»·» ·»Â»À ¼»ÄÈ ¼»½»¹º »y¹º ·»É»Ä À¸Àɸ
¹º»½ÈÆÁ ½»¼ÁÊ
ɽÊÇ»ÇÁÂÁÄ»¼Ë ¼¸·»¹ºÃ»¹ »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ ·»Â»À ¼»½»¹º »Á¹ ·Á»¹ºº»É ¾ÄÁ·»Ã ½¸Â¸Å»¹¿ ÄÁ·»Ã
Ǹ½É¸¹º»½ÈÆ.
ÏÊ·¸Â ÂʺÁÄ Ä¸½¼»½»¹º ·»É»Ä ·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ ȹÄÈà À¸¹º¸Ä»ÆÈÁ ɽ¸Í¸½¸¼Á
À»Æ»¼Á¼Ñ» ĸ½Æ»·»É À¸½Ã »ÉÄÊÉ »y¹º Ǹ½¸·»½ ¼»»Ä Á¹Á. ϸ½ÃÓÀ¸½Ã »ÉÄÊÉ
·Áɸ½Â»ÃÈû¹ ¼¸Ç»º»Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ ·»¹ ·ÁøÂÊÀÉÊÃû¹ ø ·»Â»À ¼»½»¹º Ǹ½·»¼»½Ã»¹
¼Á¼Ä¸À Êɸ½»¼Á »y¹º ·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ . Ô¸¹º¸ÂÊÀÉÊû¹ Á¹Á ·Á·»¼»½Ã»¹ É»·» ¼Á¼Ä¸À
Êɸ½»¼Á û½¸¹» ¼Á¼Ä¸À Êɸ½»¼Á ¼»¹º»Ä Ǹ½É¸¹º»½ÈÆ É»·» ɸ½»¹ºÃ»Ä Âȹ»Ã »y¹º
·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ ·»¹
user interface.
ϻƻ¼Á¼Ñ» ·»É»Ä À¸ÀÁÂÁÆ À¸½Ã »ÉÄÊÉ ·¸¹º»¹
»Ä½ÁÇÈÄ »y¹º É»ÂÁ¹º ·ÁÀÁ¹»ÄÁ ·»½Á ǸǸ½»É» É»Ã¸Ä ÃÊÀÇÁ¹»¼Á »Ä½ÁÇÈÄ ¼È»ÄÈ À¸½Ã
»ÉÄÊÉ »y¹º ·Á¼¸·Á»Ã»¹
.
Õ¸½·»¼»½Ã»¹ Ƚ»Á»¹ ĸ½¼¸ÇÈÄË É¸¹ÈÂÁ¼ À¸¹º»¹ºÃ»Ä
ɸ½À»¼»Â»Æ»¹ »y¹º Ǹ½ÎÈ·ÈÂ Ö Ð¹»ÂÁ¼Á¼ Ô½¸Í¸½¸¹¼Á ϸ½Ã ×»ÉÄÊÉ Ï»Æ»¼Á¼Ñ»
عÁŸ½¼ÁÄ»¼ ÙÁÉʹ¸ºÊ½Ê ϸ¹ººÈ¹»Ã»¹ ÏÊ·¸Â ×ʺÁÄ Ú¸½¼»½»¹ºÛÒ
Ü
ÝÞß àáâáãäå æäãäçäè
éêëìíîíëïíð ñíòíë óêñíïíðô yíðô òêñíõ ìö÷í÷íëïíðø ìí÷íò ìöëùúùîïíð
úíîíñíõ yíðô íïíð ìöòêñöòö îêóíôíö óêëöïùòû
üý éíôíöúíðí ÷ëêþêëêðîö úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
ìêðôíð úêðôôùðíïíð úÿìêñ ñÿôöò òêëîíëíðô
ý òëöóùò í÷í îíí íðô úêðìíîíëö úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
úêúöñöõ úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ òêëîêóùò
1.
â äät ãäå æäãäçäè
êëúíîíñíõíð íðô íïíð ìöóíõíî ìíñíú òùôíî íïõöë öðö ìöóíòíîö ÷íìí
÷êðêëí÷íð úÿìêñ ñÿôöò òêëîíëíðô ìíñíú îòùìö ïíîùî ÷ëêþêëêðîö úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ ÷íìí
úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿý
ÝÞ ájuan Penelitian
ùùíð ìíëö ÷êðêñöòöíð öðö íìíñíõû
üý êðìí÷íòïíð ÷ëêþêëêðîö úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
ìêðôíð úêðôôùðíïíð úÿìêñ ñÿôöò òêëîíëíðôý
ý êðôêòíõùö íòëöóùò íðô úêðìíîíëö úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
ìíñíú úêúöñöõ úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ý
MAHASISWA UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
MENGGUNAKAN MODEL LOGIT TERSARANG
SKRIPSI
Disusun oleh:
AIN HAFIDITA
J2E 009 021
JURUSAN STATISTIKA
FAKULTAS SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA
UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
SEMARANG
2014
ANALISIS PREFERENSI MERK LAPTOP
MAHASISWA UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
MENGGUNAKAN MODEL LOGIT TERSARANG
Disusun Oleh :
AIN HAFIDITA
J2E 009 021
Skripsi
Sebagai Salah Satu Syarat untuk Memperoleh Gelar
Sarjana Sains pada Jurusan Statistika
JURUSAN STATISTIKA
FAKULTAS SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA
UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
SEMARANG
2014
KATA PENGANTAR
Puji syukur kehadirat Allah SWT yang telah memberikan rahmat, hidayah,
dan karunia-Nya sehingga penulis dapat menyelesaikan penulisan skripsi dengan
judul Analisis Preferensi Merk Laptop Mahasiswa Universitas Diponegoro
Menggunakan Model Logit Tersarang.
Penulis menyadari skripsi ini tidak akan dapat diselesaikan tanpa bantuan
dari berbagai pihak. Oleh karena itu, penulis ingin menyampaikan terima kasih
kepada:
1. Ibu Dra. Hj. Dwi Ispriyanti, M. Si. selaku Ketua Jurusan Statistika Fakultas
Sains dan Matematika Universitas Diponegoro dan dosen pembimbing II.
2. Bapak Drs. Agus Rusgiyono, M. Si. selaku dosen pembimbing I.
3. Bapak/Ibu dosen jurusan statistika yang telah memberikan arahan dan
masukan demi perbaikan penulisan skripsi ini.
4. Semua pihak yang telah membantu dalam penulisan skripsi ini.
Semarang,
Agustus 2014
Penulis
bstract
s rapidly evolving information technology affects mostly the
change of people s choice in electronic devices (gadget) usage, especially laptops.
Addressing this phenomenon, laptop manufacturers are competing to create
innovative products to reach various elements of the consumer. Nested logit,
which sorts the alternatives based on common properties into smaller groups
(nests) and has a level so as to form a tree structure, is a method that can be used
to model consumer preferences. Alternatives may have either unique or common
characteristics that describe properties or components so called attributes. In this
study, laptop brands are treated as alternatives and classified by the operating
system. This research concluded that the most favorite brand is Asus (25.35 %),
followed by Toshiba (22.81%), Lenovo (14.27%), HP (13.90%), Acer (12.40%)
and the least is Macbook (11.27%). Attributes that significantly affect the brand
preferences are laptop classification and warranty, while color is considered
insignificant.
Keywords: Laptop Brand Preferences, Nested Logit, Attribute, Level.
vi
D
F R
v
!
v
! CT ....................................................................................................
vi
DAFTAR ISI ...................................................................................................
vii
DAFTAR TABEL............................................................................................
xi
DAFTAR GAMBAR ......................................................................................
xii
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN ...................................................................................
xiii
BAB I
BAB II
PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakang .....................................................................
1
1.2 Rumusan Masalah ................................................................
4
1.3 Pembatasan Masalah ............................................................
4
1.4 Tujuan Penelitian .................................................................
4
TINJAUAN PUSTAKA
2.1 Pengambilan Keputusan .......................................................
5
2.2 Fungsi Utilitas ......................................................................
6
2.2.1
Definisi .....................................................................
6
2.2.2
Fungsi Utilitas Relatif ..............................................
6
2.3 Model Logit Multinomial ....................................................
7
2$3$%
&#'ts#()*# +),(-. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
/$0$/ 123-4-23-2*# 5.-t 2r 6#t7 6yn8 9#36: ;-.-v6n
$$$$$$$$$$$
/$0$0 +6.6t6y28 123-4-23-2 362 ?3-. @?8#t9-'*6'628 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
11
2$4$%
&-7#2#*# $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %%
/$A$/ @-"-. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %/
/$A$0 B66r ,--t rC:6.6 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
2$4$A
13
D#.6# 12:.)*#7 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %0
/$A$E >?3-. F#t.#t6s ;623?, $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
14
2$4$G
1E
B-2H6(6'62 C't ):=)' B?I?2 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
/$A$J K-or.6*# L)28*# F#t.#6t s
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
17
/$A$M 123-4-23-2*# 5.-t 2r 6#t7 6yn8 9#36: ;-.-v6nN115O 4636
>?3-. @o8#t9-*r 6r6n8
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %7
/$A$P +6.6t6yn8 123--p23-n36n?3-. @o8#t9-sr6r628
3-#nt: N11&O
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ %8
/$A$%Q R7-: >6Hr#26. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
19
/$A$%% R*=#,6*# B66r ,--t r $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ /%
/$E FH# C#82#7#:62*# >?3-. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ 0%
2$G
/$E$% FH# S6)*,62 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
31
2$E$/
FH# ;6*#? @#:-.#I??3 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
32
2$E$0
FH# T6.3 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
32
B-'62U62862 &-*6#2 K)-*#?2-' $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
33
2$6.1
33
Konsep Orthogonalitas .............................................
"###
2.6.2
Menentukan Ukuran Desain .....................................
33
2.6.3
Uji Multikolinearitas ................................................
34
BAB III METODOLOGI PENELITIAN
3.1 Tempat dan Waktu Pelaksanaan Penelitian .........................
36
3.2 Instrumen Penelitian ............................................................
36
3.3 Teknik Pengambilan Sampel ...............................................
36
3.4 Alternatif ..............................................................................
37
3.5 Atribut ..................................................................................
38
3.5.1 Klasifikasi Laptop ....................................................
38
3.5.2 Garansi .....................................................................
41
3.5.3
Warna .......................................................................
42
3.6
Langkah-Langkah Penelitian ...............................................
42
3.7
Diagram Alur (Flowchart) Penelitian ..................................
43
BAB IV PEMBAHASAN
4.1 Uji Multikolinearitas ............................................................
45
4.2 Analisis Deskriptif ...............................................................
45
4.3 Model Logit Tersarang .........................................................
47
4.3.1 Struktur Pohon .........................................................
47
4.3.2 Model Awal .............................................................
48
4.3.2.1 Uji Hausman .............................................
48
4.3.2.2 Uji Rasio Likelihood .................................
49
4.3.2.3
Uji Wald ....................................................
50
Model Akhir .............................................................
51
4.3.3
Vx
4.3.3.1
Uji Hausman .............................................
51
4.3.3.2
Uji Rasio Likelihood .................................
52
4.3.3.3 Uji Wald ....................................................
53
Penjabaran Struktur Pohon .......................................
54
4.3.4.1
Level 1 ......................................................
54
4.3.4.2
Level 2 ......................................................
56
4.3.4.3
Model Preferensi .......................................
57
4.3.4.4
Efek Marjinal ............................................
61
4.3.4.5
Korelasi Fungsi Utilitas ............................
62
KESIMPULAN ............................................................................
64
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ....................................................................................
65
LAMPIRAN ...................................................................................................
66
4.3.4
BAB V
x
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 3.1
Halaman
Proporsi Mahasiswa ................................................................... 37
Tabel 3.2 Alternatif ...................................................................................... 37
Tabel 3.3 Atribut .......................................................................................... 38
Tabel 3.4 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop HP .................................. 39
Tabel 3.5 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Toshiba ........................... 39
Tabel 3.6 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Asus ................................ 39
Tabel 3.7 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Acer ................................ 40
Tabel 3.8 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Lenovo ........................... 40
Tabel 3.9 Komposisi Atribut Klasifikasi Laptop Macbook ........................ 40
Tabel 3.10 Komposisi Atribut Garansi HP .................................................. 41
Tabel 3.11 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Toshiba ........................................... 41
Tabel 3.12 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Asus ............................................... 41
Tabel 3.13 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Acer ................................................ 41
Tabel 3.14 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Lenovo ........................................... 41
Tabel 3.15 Komposisi Atribut Garansi Macbook ........................................ 42
Tabel 4.1 Uji Multikolinearitas ................................................................... 45
Tabel 4.2 Uji Wald Model Awal ................................................................. 50
Tabel 4.3 Uji Wald Model Akhir ................................................................. 53
Tabel 4.4 Proporsi Probabilitas Alternatif ................................................... 61
xi
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Halaman
Gambar 2.1 Struktur Pohon Logit Tersarang dengan 2 Level ..................... 12
Gambar 3.1 Diagram Alur (Flowchart) Penelitian........................................ 44
Gambar 4.1 Pohon Logit Tersarang 2 Level Preferensi Merk Laptop .......... 47
xii
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Halaman
Lampiran I
Kuesioner Penelitian ............................................................ 66
Lampiran III
Karakteristik Responden ...................................................... 75
Lampiran II
Lampiran IV
Lampiran V
Lampiran VI
Data Responden ................................................................... 72
Syntax dan Output Program NLOGIT ................................. 77
Nilai Utilitas Relatif dan Probabilitas .................................. 83
Efek Marjinal ....................................................................... 94
xiii
XYX Z
[\]^Y_`a`Y]
bcb adedf Xghdidjk
lmnopqprs sotpuvwxs ywor ymunmvywor zmxw{ |m}wxw sos {~u~{ vmvzmorwu~s
zmu~ywwo zpqw s|~z vwxywuwnw{ ywsn |wqwv wq ymunpv~osnwxs ymqwwu ymnmuw
ymuysxosx |wo qwso xmywrwsoyw lmnopqprs sotpuvwxs |s|mtsosxsnwo xmywrws
{mnopqprs wyor |sr~ownwo ~o{~n vmorpqw |w{w {muvwx~n vmvzupxmx
vmo|wzw{nwo vmo~yx~o vmosyvzwo vm orpqw |w{w |wqwv ymuywrws wuw ~o{~n
vmorwxsqnwo sotpuvwxs wyor ymun~wqs{wx wyor |sr~ownwo ~o{~n nmzmuq~wo
zusyw|s zmo|s|snwo ysxosx |wo zmvmuso{wwo munmvyworwo |s ys|wor {mnopqprs
sotpuvwxs sos |wzw{ |sqsw{ |wus rwwy s|~z vwxwyuwnw{ wyor {s|wn y
sxw qmzwx |wus
wqw{ ywo{~ {mnopqprs xmzmu{s {mqmzpo rmorrwv npvz~{mu qwz{pz |wo xmywrwsowy
Kmvw~wo
.
{mnopqprs sotpuvwxs vmvyw}w |wvzwn ywor ymxwu zw|w ysxosx ywor
ymurmuwn |s xmn{pu {muxmy~{ xmzmu{s zmo~wqwo zmuwornw{ nmuwx |wo zmuwornw{ q~own
npvz~{mu wxw zmvy~w{wo zpu{wq }my so mo{pus |wo qwsoqwso
wqw xw{~ {umo ywor vmu~zwnwo mtmn |wus vmosornw{owy nmy~{~wo wnwo
{mnopqprs |wqwv |~osw nmuw w|wqw
(Bring Your Own Device)
w|wqw {umo zmnmuw zuptmxspowq vmvyw}w zmuwornw{ vmumnw xmo|sus ~o{~n ymnmuw
|wo vmorwnxmx wzqsnwxs |s nwo{pu mopvmow sos |s{su~ pqm nwqworwo vwwxsx}w
|morwo vmvyw}w |wo vmorr~ownwo qwz{pz zusyw|s |s nwvz~x wor ymuwnsyw{
zw|w qpownwo zmuvso{wwo {muw|wz qwz{pz
W
My
¡
¢ ¢ £
¤ ¥ £ yy
y ¦¤ § y
¦ y y ¨y M© H¥ ª
«¨¬¨ «© ¢ ® «¯ °¤ §°°
° ° ±°
£
° ² © ° ¤
ª °
° ± ¤ ³± © ±
°
£
© £ £ ² ¤ ´ ° £
±
¤
³ ©
© ¡ ° °¤ ¨
°
¤ µ
(¢ )
© ¢¡¢
± ° © °
¶
·¸¹º»¹ ¼»½»¹º ¾nest¿ ·»¹ À¸ÀÁÂÁÃÁ ÄÁ¹ºÃ»Ä»¹ ¾Â¸Å¸Â¿ ¼¸ÆÁ¹ºº» À¸ÀǸ¹ÄÈà ¼¸ÇÈ»Æ
¼Ä½ÈÃÄȽ ÉÊÆʹ ¾H¸¹¼Æ¸½Ë ¸Ä.»Â.Ë 2005¿. ̸ÄÁ»É Å»½Á»Ç¸Â ½¸¼Éʹ ¾»Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ¿ À¸ÀÁÂÁÃÁ
»Ä½ÁÇÈÄ »Ä»È û½»Ãĸ½Á¼ÄÁà »y¹º À¸¹ºº»ÀÇ»½Ã»¹ ¼ÁÍ»Ä »Ä»È ÃÊÀÉʹ¸¹ »y¹º
ĸ½Ã»¹·È¹º ·»Â»À »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Ä¸½¼¸ÇÈÄ »y¹º ·»É»Ä Ǹ½¼ÁÍ»Ä È¹Áà ¹»Àȹ ÎȺ» ·»É»Ä
ÉÈ» À¸ÀÁÂÁÃÁ ø¼»À»»¹ ·¸¹º»¹ »Ä½ÁÇÈÄ ·»½Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Â»Á¹. ÏÊ·¸Â ÂʺÁÄ Ä¸½¼»½»¹º
Ç»Áà ·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ û½¸¹» ·»É»Ä À¸Âʹºº»½Ã»¹ »¼ÈÀ¼Á Á¹·¸É¸¹·¸¹¼Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ »y¹º
ÄÁ·»Ã ½¸Â¸Å»¹ ¾»¼ÈÀ¼Á IIп »y¹º Ǹ½¼ÁÍ»Ä À¸ÀÇ »Ä»¼Á É»·» ɸÀÊ·¸Â»¹ ÉÁÂÁÆ»¹.
мÈÀ¼Á Á¹Á À¸¹»yĻû¹ Ç»ÆÑ» ½»¼ÁÊ É½ÊÇ»ÇÁÂÁÄ»¼ øĸ½ÉÁÂÁÆ»¹ ¼¸Ç»½»¹º É»¼»¹º»¹
»Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Ç¸½¼ÁÍ»Ä Á¹·¸É¸¹·¸¹ ĸ½Æ»·»É øǸ½»·»»¹ ·»¹ »Ä½ÁÇÈÄ ·»½Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ Â»Á¹Ò
H»¹»y »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ »y¹º
Ǹ½»·» ·»Â»À ¼»ÄÈ ¼»½»¹º »y¹º ·»É»Ä À¸Àɸ
¹º»½ÈÆÁ ½»¼ÁÊ
ɽÊÇ»ÇÁÂÁÄ»¼Ë ¼¸·»¹ºÃ»¹ »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ ·»Â»À ¼»½»¹º »Á¹ ·Á»¹ºº»É ¾ÄÁ·»Ã ½¸Â¸Å»¹¿ ÄÁ·»Ã
Ǹ½É¸¹º»½ÈÆ.
ÏÊ·¸Â ÂʺÁÄ Ä¸½¼»½»¹º ·»É»Ä ·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ ȹÄÈà À¸¹º¸Ä»ÆÈÁ ɽ¸Í¸½¸¼Á
À»Æ»¼Á¼Ñ» ĸ½Æ»·»É À¸½Ã »ÉÄÊÉ »y¹º Ǹ½¸·»½ ¼»»Ä Á¹Á. ϸ½ÃÓÀ¸½Ã »ÉÄÊÉ
·Áɸ½Â»ÃÈû¹ ¼¸Ç»º»Á »Âĸ½¹»ÄÁÍ ·»¹ ·ÁøÂÊÀÉÊÃû¹ ø ·»Â»À ¼»½»¹º Ǹ½·»¼»½Ã»¹
¼Á¼Ä¸À Êɸ½»¼Á »y¹º ·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ . Ô¸¹º¸ÂÊÀÉÊû¹ Á¹Á ·Á·»¼»½Ã»¹ É»·» ¼Á¼Ä¸À
Êɸ½»¼Á û½¸¹» ¼Á¼Ä¸À Êɸ½»¼Á ¼»¹º»Ä Ǹ½É¸¹º»½ÈÆ É»·» ɸ½»¹ºÃ»Ä Âȹ»Ã »y¹º
·ÁºÈ¹»Ã»¹ ·»¹
user interface.
ϻƻ¼Á¼Ñ» ·»É»Ä À¸ÀÁÂÁÆ À¸½Ã »ÉÄÊÉ ·¸¹º»¹
»Ä½ÁÇÈÄ »y¹º É»ÂÁ¹º ·ÁÀÁ¹»ÄÁ ·»½Á ǸǸ½»É» É»Ã¸Ä ÃÊÀÇÁ¹»¼Á »Ä½ÁÇÈÄ ¼È»ÄÈ À¸½Ã
»ÉÄÊÉ »y¹º ·Á¼¸·Á»Ã»¹
.
Õ¸½·»¼»½Ã»¹ Ƚ»Á»¹ ĸ½¼¸ÇÈÄË É¸¹ÈÂÁ¼ À¸¹º»¹ºÃ»Ä
ɸ½À»¼»Â»Æ»¹ »y¹º Ǹ½ÎÈ·ÈÂ Ö Ð¹»ÂÁ¼Á¼ Ô½¸Í¸½¸¹¼Á ϸ½Ã ×»ÉÄÊÉ Ï»Æ»¼Á¼Ñ»
عÁŸ½¼ÁÄ»¼ ÙÁÉʹ¸ºÊ½Ê ϸ¹ººÈ¹»Ã»¹ ÏÊ·¸Â ×ʺÁÄ Ú¸½¼»½»¹ºÛÒ
Ü
ÝÞß àáâáãäå æäãäçäè
éêëìíîíëïíð ñíòíë óêñíïíðô yíðô òêñíõ ìö÷í÷íëïíðø ìí÷íò ìöëùúùîïíð
úíîíñíõ yíðô íïíð ìöòêñöòö îêóíôíö óêëöïùòû
üý éíôíöúíðí ÷ëêþêëêðîö úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
ìêðôíð úêðôôùðíïíð úÿìêñ ñÿôöò òêëîíëíðô
ý òëöóùò í÷í îíí íðô úêðìíîíëö úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
úêúöñöõ úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ òêëîêóùò
1.
â äät ãäå æäãäçäè
êëúíîíñíõíð íðô íïíð ìöóíõíî ìíñíú òùôíî íïõöë öðö ìöóíòíîö ÷íìí
÷êðêëí÷íð úÿìêñ ñÿôöò òêëîíëíðô ìíñíú îòùìö ïíîùî ÷ëêþêëêðîö úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ ÷íìí
úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿý
ÝÞ ájuan Penelitian
ùùíð ìíëö ÷êðêñöòöíð öðö íìíñíõû
üý êðìí÷íòïíð ÷ëêþêëêðîö úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
ìêðôíð úêðôôùðíïíð úÿìêñ ñÿôöò òêëîíëíðôý
ý êðôêòíõùö íòëöóùò íðô úêðìíîíëö úíõíîöî í ðöêëîöòíî ö÷ÿðêôÿëÿ
ìíñíú úêúöñöõ úêëï ñí÷òÿ÷ý