Early Warning Early Action

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  SEA Climate Change Training

   Early Warning, Early Action

SEA Climate

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Change

  Key objectives of this session (in slide master)

Training

  At the end of this activity, the participants are able to: Identify the four key elements of Early Warning and Early

   Action Use weather and climate information on short, medium and

   long timescales for addressing climate risk today Identify early actions National Societies can take in

   programming areas like health, disaster risk reduction and disaster management Feel confident in enhancing or forming relationships with

   climate information providers and be able to describe the benefits and limitations of using forecasts www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

  Presentation title at-a-glance info

Change

  Early Warning, Early Action means (in slide master)

Training

  Routinely taking Using climate and weather humanitarian action information to take action before a disaster or before a disaster strikes, in health emergency order to reduce negative happens, making full impacts. use of scientific information on all timescales. www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate As the climate changes, we can expect

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Change

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Training

  more extreme weather events, more often Photo: Danish Red Cross Photo: NASA www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

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  SEA Climate Change Training

  Disaster Response Traditional Approach

SEA Climate Change Training

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Disaster Early Action Early Warning Response Enhanced approach

SEA Climate

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Change

  Why Early Warning, Early Action? (in slide master)

Training

  Extreme events have implications for health, livelihoods, water, food security, and others.

  Climate and weather information can help anticipate and prepare for changing risks. www.ifrc.org

  SEA Climate The elements of

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Training

  

Early Warning, Early Action

  • Knowledge: Collecting data to understand risks
  • Monitoring: Collaboration with hazard monitoring services
  • Communication: Sharing information about hazards
  • Action: building response capability Preparing for pending hazards.

  www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

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Change

  Risk Knowledge (in slide master)

Training

Key questions to consider when designing EW-EA Plan

  • Are hazards and vulnerabilities well known?
  • What are their patterns and trends?
  • Are risks maps and data available?

  www.ifrc.org

  Monitoring (The trickier side of

SEA Climate

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Change

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Training

  

Early Warning, Early Action)

Hazard monitoring can include, for example, river gauges for

   floods and scientific forecasts for extreme rain or drought Forecasts issued for days, weeks and months in advance

   Collaboration with national meteorological service is a good

   add on to access information www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate Change Training

  • Do warnings reach all of those at risk?
  • Are the risks and the warnings well understood?
  • Is the warning information clear and usable?

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Communication

  Key questions to consider when designing EW-EA Plan

SEA Climate

  Presentation title at-a-glance info

Change

  Early Warning, Early Action means (in slide master)

Training

  Using climate and weather information to take action before a disaster strikes, in order to reduce negative impacts www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Account for evolving risk and rising uncertainty Accommodate multiple timescales

  ”...we respond to warnings, not disasters”

  New good

   IFRC guides

SEA Climate

  Presentation title Early warning, early action at-a-glance info

Change

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Training

  Bridging time scales

Climate change

  Rising risks, trends, more surprises

Seasonal forecasts

  Level of risk in coming months “Regular” forecasts Impending hazard www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Forecast Caveats (time to take action versus specificity)

  3–10 day forecasts (short lead time, very specific)

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Forecast Caveats (time to take action versus specificity)

  Monthly and seasonal forecasts (more lead time, less specific)

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Forecast Caveats (time to take action versus specificity)

  Climate change predictions (even more lead time, even less specific)

SEA Climate

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Long lead-time forecasts

at-a-glance info

Change

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Training

  can’t say it all about the future

  • Long-term forecasts are not precise. They can only tell what is more likely to happen over a large area.
  • We need to also monitor shorter-term weather forecasts to better anticipate when, where or how severe.

  www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Which forecasts are useful for humanitarian decisions? short term? long term? medium term?

  What kind of early actions should be taken in the…

SEA Climate

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Change

  Early Action Paid Off: (in slide master)

Training

  Faster response: 1-2 days rather than 40 in 2007

  • Fewer victims ( 30 instead of hundreds)
  • Lower cost per beneficiary (

  30% ) Example: Red Cross volunteers in Ghana saving lives by alerting Volta fishermen that the Bagre dam would be spilled. www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

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Change

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  Training

  www.ifrc.org

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  SEA Climate Change Training

  Seasonal rainfall forecast issued October 2010 for upcoming November-January

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  SEA Climate Change Training

  Areas that experienced flooding or drought that November-January

SEA Climate Change Training

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  you risk missing critical information in the short term.

  If you only monitor the long term, …you risk missing critical information in the long term.

  And, if you only monitor the short term… Long term vs Short term

  SEA Climate For monitoring, partnerships with information

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  (in slide master) Training centers are crucial, but…. Can we understand what the met office is telling us? www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

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Change

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Training

  Defining triggers Defining triggers for action that are…

LOW-COST NO-REGRETS BENEFICIAL

  Not Easy! www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

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Change

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Training

  Establishing triggers  Draw on past knowledge of disasters  Establish and document triggers well before a hazard arrives

 Ensure internal support and external partnerships

are in place – especially with the government.

   Focus on low-cost, no-regrets, beneficial solutions. www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

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Change

  (in slide master) Taking Action, Establishing Triggers

  Training  Tailor actions to likelihood of hazard.

   Understand and accept the risks of taking action if a hazard does not materialize.

   Understand and accept the risks of not taking action if a hazard materializes. www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

  Presentation title Putting it all together at-a-glance info

Change

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Training

  Examples of Early Warning Early Action Early Warning: In 2007, the Bangladesh Red Crescent received early warning indicators of Cyclone Sidr approaching their coast.

  

Early Action: Working with the government 5,000 volunteers

with megaphones alerted and evacuated at risk residents.

  As result 4,500 people died compared to 138,000 in 1991. www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

  Presentation title Early Warning, Early Action pays off at-a-glance info

Change

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Training

  The case of West Africa Most countries got supplies just days after flooding in 2008.

   (In 2007, flood operations were an estimated 40 days late). Faster arrival of relief saved lives, minimized health impacts,

   protected livelihoods and enabled communities to recover. In 2007 an emergency dam spillage cost 30 lives. In 2008, dam

   release times were scheduled, allowing Red Cross volunteers to warn communities ahead of time. This time only two lives were lost.

Resources were used more efficiently: 33 per cent less spent per

   beneficiary in 2008 than in two previous years. www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

  Presentation title at-a-glance info Low-cost actions beneficial,

Change

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Training

  even if floods hadn’t materialized Updating contingency plans

   Training of trainers and increase of volunteer capacity

   Paperwork for border crossing and health insurance handled in

   advance for relief teams Relief items strategically placed in three regional warehouses,

   (instead of depending on supplies from Dubai)

Shorter-term early warning systems established and checked

  

Relationships formed with forecasting agencies, so the Red

   Cross Red Crescent received timely warnings Relationships formed with government authorities to allow for

   early actions. www.ifrc.org

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Different actions are appropriate at different timescales

SEA Climate Change Training

  Early Warning Action Scenario

SEA Climate

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Change

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Training

  Exercise Objectives On completion this exercise, participants will have and understanding of:

  Using weather and climate information on different

   time-scales act before disaster happen

How long term climate trends can be addressed

   through disaster preparedness and long term risk reduction work www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate Change Training

Early Warning/Early Action Exercise

  www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

  Group 1: Floods Group 3: Cyclones Group 2: Drought

  Group 4: Sea Level Rise

SEA Climate

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Change

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Training

Early warning is a chain of people linked to a chain of actions

   that make it work! www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

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Change

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Training

  E-mail: ifrc@iri.columbia.edu www.ifrc.org

SEA Climate

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Change

  Key Messages (in slide master)

Training

  • As the climate changes we can expect more frequent, and more extreme weather events. It is becoming increasingly important that we monitor, so we can take action. Extreme events have a range of implications for health, livelihoods, water and food security.
  • We can anticipate and prepare for these by preparing

  climate and weather information!

  • We have to work closely with national meteorological offices for access and interpretation support. Partnerships in this respect are crucial.
  • Early actions need to be taken in the short-term, medium-term and long-term. Long term forecasts are not precise and can only give an idea of trends. If you only monitor long term you are

  www.ifrc.org www.ifrc.org missing critical short term information and visa versa.

  Saving lives, changing minds.