ProdukHukum BankIndonesia
CONSUMER SURVEY
July 2010
Consumer Confidence Index remained on the optimistic
level, albeit down slightly by 5.7 points to 105.7 in July 2010.
The deterioration in confidence was broad base, all
components measuring current economic condition and
expectation for the next 6 months registering a decline. The
index dropped by 5.4 and 6.0 points respectively.
Consumers believe that inflationary pressure will continue
to increase over the next 3 and 6 months, as the indexes
were raised by 13.7 and 6.9 points each againts previous
month. The highest pressure was attributable to the increase
in the price of housing, electricity, gas and fuels group and
foodstuff group.
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index
moved down
Consumer confidence index (CCI) in July 2010 remained stand at
optimistic level, although it slightly slipped down over previous
month. The survey encountered that CCI stood at optimistic area of 105.7
down 5.7 points against previous month survey. The lower CCI was due to
respondent’s dwindle perception on current economic condition and the
expectation for the next 6 months. The perception index plummeted by 5.4
and 6.0 points each.
Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index
(Index)
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
Optimistic
100.0
Pessimistic
90.0
80.0
Current Economic Condition Index
70.0
Global Economic
Crisis
Fuels Hike
Consumer Expectation Index
Consumer Confidence Index
60.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010
Methodology
Consumer Survey-Bank Indonesia (CS-BI) is a monthly survey that has been conducted since October 1999. Since January
2007, the survey is done to moreless 4,600 households as respo ndents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities: Jakarta, Bandung,
Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, BandarLampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado,
Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon, and Banten. By significance level of 99%, the sample has sampling error of 2%. Data
canvassing run through interviews by phone and direct visits in particular cities that based on rotated system. Balance Score Method
(net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the index, where the index is above 100 points indicate an optimism (positive
responses) and vice versa.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
1
The downwarding CCI was indicated to be correlated with enhancing
st
basic electricity rate by 18% on July 1 2010 and rising some basic need
commodities that feared could increasing the living expenses so that
weakened consumer confidence on economic condition.
Compared to the same period on last year, consumer’s
confidence index on economic condition also grew weaker. CCI on the
reporting period declined 9.7 points over previous year. Deteriorating
consumer expectation index by 17.0 points and current economic condition
index by 2.5 points were attributable to the downwarding CCI.
Current Economic Condition Index
Current economic condition
stayed at pessimistic level
Respondent’s perception on current economic condition went
down from optimistic area to pessimistic level against previous month.
Respondent’s pessimism on current economic condition was seen on Current
Economic Condition Index (CECI) which slipped off 5.4 points over previous
month and plummeted 2.5 points against previous year touching pessimistic
level of 96.1.
The survey revealed that all current economic condition indicators
moved down. The highest declined was at household income in July 2010
that could push consumers to hold their desire to consume durable goods.
Moreover, consumers also considered that there were lack on job availability
at current time over previous month.
Higher consumer’s expenditure on education related to new school
year and rising price on some basic need commodities in July 2010 was
attributable to declining consumer’s income that finally could hold consumers
desire to consume durable goods.
Compared to the same period in last year, consumer’s current income
and job availability were become lower.
Graph 2. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI)
Index
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
1
2
3
4
2008
Current Economic Conditions Index
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
Current Incomes
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009
2010
Buying Durable Goods Conditions
Job Availability
2
Consumer Expectation Index
Respondent’s optimism on
economic expectation
jumped down
This month survey confirmed that consumer’s expectation in
the next 6 months remained at optimistic area, although it was lower
than previous month and over the same period in last year.
Consumption for the next 6 months was predicted to accelerate since CEI
remained at the optimistic area of 115.3 down 6.0 points from the previous
month. The declining index was attributable by reducing optimism on
economic condition (9.7 points), future income (4.8 points), and job prospects
(3.5 points) in the next 6 months. Together with the basic electricity rate hike
applied since July 1st 2010 by 18%, respondents considered that pressure on
economic condition is strengthening as the economic condition expectation
moved down. Eventually, it will lighten respondents’ optimism over income in
the next 6 months.
CEI in this period survey was 17.0 points lower than previous
year. Consumer’s had negative view on the economic prospect edged down
by 26.3 points, followed by income expectation by 10.3 points and job
availability by 14.4 points.
Graph. 3
Consumer Expectation Index (CEI)
Index
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 1
2008
Consumer Expectation Index
Economic Expectation
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
2009
3
4
5
6
7
2010
Incomes Expectation
Job Availability Expectation
Income Expectations
Respondent’s optimism
on income in the next 6
months also deteriorated
Respondent were less optimistic on their income in the next 6
months. The deteriorating optimism was indicated by income expectation
index which down 4.8 points over previous month. Classified by respondents’
category, a downward on income expectation encountered in all categories
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
3
especially those who graduated from high school as the index dropped by 8.9
points.
Price Expectations
Pressure on prices in the
future is strengthening
Respondents
envisaged
that
pressure
on
prices
over
goods/services in the next 3 months will be higher than in the next 6
months. The survey revealed that there was soaring pressure on prices in the
next 3 and 6 months as the index moved up by 13.7 and 6.9 points.
Respondents acknowledged the highest leap at housing, electricity, gas and
fuels for the next 3 and 6 months expectation which rose by 13.8 and 8.5
points. Food stuff commodity was believed to be the main factor which could
push prices upward in the next 3 and 6 months ahead by 13.3 points and 6.8
st
points respectively. Rising basic electricity rate that applied on July 1 2010 has
apparently given substantial effect on respondent’s expectations on those
commodity groups.
Graph 4.
Price Expectation Index for the next 3 and 6 months
( % )
(Index)
6.00
200.0
Price Expectation Index 3 months ahead
190.0
5.00
Price Expectation Index 6 months ahead
Cummulative inflations in 3 months
180.0
4.00
170.0
3.00
160.0
2.00
150.0
1.00
140.0
0.00
‐1.00
130.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect prices will still be stable, index > 100 indicates
consumer expect prices will increase, and index < 100 indicates consumer expect prices will decrease
Expectations of Savings and Interest Rates
Interest rate
expectation in the
next 6 months is
relatively unchanged
Based on survey, expectation on prices pressure has apparently
not given any significant influenced yet to the interest rate
expectation. Interest rate expectation index in the next 6 months was
predicted to be relatively unchanged, only moved up by 0.2 point over previous
month. Nevertheless, worsening respondent’s expectation on economic
condition in the next 6 months has impacted consumer’s expectation on saving
in the next 6 months as the index dropped 2.9 points over previous month.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
4
Graph. 5
Expectation Indexes on Interest Rates and Total Savings in the next 6 months
Index
(%)
140
25
Savings Growth in 6 months
Interest Rates Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
Savings Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
130
20
120
15
110
10
100
5
90
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will still be
stable, index > 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will increase, and
index < 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will decrease
Expectations on Economic Conditions
Respondents were
less optimistic on
economic condition
in the next 6 months
Respondent’s expectations on economic condition on the next 6
months continue to down. However, it was still on optimistic level.
Weakening expectations was evidenced by declining index by 9.7 points over
previous month. Significant loose of economic expectations by those who
expenses more than Rp 5 million could be the main reason of worsening
economic condition in the next 6 months to the level of 112.6.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
5
Table 1. Consumer Confidence, Price Expectations, Consumption Plans, and Economic Indicators (Index)
Descriptions
2009
Jul
A
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Aug
Sep
110.01
111.00
Jan
108.66
Feb
110.5
Mar
105.3
107.4
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
110.7
109.9
111.4
100.49
96.59
96.78
97.71
96.67
98.4
94.7
96.4
99.6
100.0
101.4
96.1
128.17
125.09
123.24
124.28
120.65
122.6
115.9
118.5
121.7
119.8
121.3
115.3
129.46
83.66
82.53
127.52
87.64
86.31
123.97
81.28
84.53
124.93
82.21
83.20
124.11
84.90
84.13
123.13
81.12
85.76
125.5
85.2
84.5
118.6
87.3
78.0
121.7
85.3
82.1
126.1
87.5
85.3
124.4
89.6
85.9
126.2
91.4
86.7
120.6
86.8
80.9
142.93
138.94
115.14
138.34
135.44
110.71
138.48
130.35
106.42
137.32
127.28
105.11
139.28
128.77
104.81
136.75
122.11
103.10
141.1
122.7
103.9
132.5
114.4
100.8
135.3
117.7
102.4
136.7
122.2
106.3
134.7
119.5
105.2
137.4
122.3
104.2
132.6
112.6
100.7
Price Expectations for 3 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial ser
Education, recreation, and sports
154.76
158.24
151.28
141.57
142.47
132.07
136.71
135.34
163.75
168.18
160.99
148.85
152.65
139.61
145.62
141.12
165.21
167.00
161.00
155.20
150.16
140.64
146.85
141.34
158.76
160.80
154.94
155.96
138.56
135.38
142.60
137.28
159.89
160.64
155.77
156.58
139.34
136.63
142.25
138.96
161.00
162.97
157.15
156.32
137.95
137.91
141.35
140.05
160.60
163.50
156.40
152.00
135.50
135.90
137.50
138.00
160.20
163.40
155.00
151.50
136.40
136.10
137.90
137.20
155.10
156.00
149.90
148.10
131.20
133.90
134.30
138.20
158.60
159.60
153.50
155.30
133.70
133.60
136.40
141.40
164.30
164.20
156.50
158.10
142.10
138.80
142.00
145.90
166.8
167.8
160.1
161.2
148.8
141.0
149.6
149.4
180.5
181.2
170.4
175.1
155.9
146.6
157.4
154.9
Price Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial ser
Education, recreation, and sports
152.23
154.18
149.88
141.95
138.97
132.55
136.95
134.87
156.46
160.01
155.05
148.55
144.01
139.03
143.20
139.80
156.95
158.23
153.36
150.84
141.71
140.19
143.37
140.98
156.24
158.42
154.25
154.32
137.41
136.73
143.86
138.61
157.92
158.39
154.44
155.72
140.52
138.06
142.59
143.10
158.80
160.51
154.89
155.40
139.90
138.87
143.90
144.73
161.20
162.10
156.90
153.20
140.10
140.00
142.80
146.20
164.30
166.00
158.90
153.10
144.40
140.80
145.50
147.70
161.10
161.70
156.70
148.60
143.10
136.70
143.60
145.30
159.30
160.50
154.50
154.10
140.30
137.20
144.90
144.20
162.50
163.00
158.00
157.30
145.20
139.10
147.30
146.10
163.1
164.1
157.9
157.3
147.1
141.2
148.3
146.1
170.1
171.0
163.5
165.8
148.4
146.5
153.0
150.8
137.18
115.76
107.50
129.87
139.97
117.71
107.85
127.63
138.59
115.20
104.44
124.99
136.40
113.34
104.70
125.93
132.70
115.44
106.58
128.21
133.48
116.31
105.94
126.75
138.30
117.90
106.40
129.80
134.20
114.90
105.20
125.60
135.50
117.00
106.90
126.20
137.60
116.20
105.00
127.00
138.70
117.10
105.80
125.00
141.5
117.8
106.5
127.3
140.0
117.9
103.7
124.3
Appraisal of Present Situation
Current Incomes
Buying durable goods Conditions
Employment Conditions
110.84
Dec
98.55
Expectations (CEI)
114.33
Nov
132.34
Present Situation (CECI)
115.44
2010
Oct
105.7
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Condition)
Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Incomes
Economic Conditions
Employment Conditions
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Expectation)
B
C
D
Economic Indicator within 6 Months
Avaibility of Goods & Services
Interest Rate
Current savings
Savings for 6 months hence
Table 2. Respondent Figures (percentages)
2009
Descriptions
Jul
Aug
Sep
2010
Oct
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Gender
Male
Female
62.09
37.91
59.50
40.50
59.83
40.17
57.55
42.45
57.82
42.18
58.31
41.69
59.80
40.20
58.60
41.40
59.00
41.00
58.80
41.20
57.70
42.30
57.40
42.60
58.90
41.10
Household Expenses
Rp. 1 million - Rp. 3 million
Rp. 3 million - Rp. 5 million
Rp. 5 million and over
60.32
28.99
10.69
60.54
29.15
10.31
59.49
30.10
10.42
60.94
28.35
10.71
60.21
28.39
11.41
59.35
29.66
10.99
58.70
30.90
10.40
61.20
28.70
10.00
58.10
30.80
11.20
59.80
30.30
9.90
59.70
29.60
10.70
60.90
28.80
10.30
58.90
31.10
10.00
58.37
38.79
2.84
62.00
34.64
3.36
58.48
38.34
3.18
61.12
35.89
2.99
63.93
33.00
3.08
62.16
34.23
3.61
57.60
38.40
3.90
59.50
36.60
3.90
59.10
36.50
4.40
60.30
35.60
4.10
61.10
34.90
4.00
60.50
35.90
3.50
59.30
37.10
3.50
48.56
12.94
33.61
4.90
48.74
12.85
33.28
5.13
48.39
13.08
34.00
4.53
47.69
13.42
34.35
4.53
47.65
12.90
35.24
4.21
47.59
13.21
34.59
4.60
45.90
13.40
35.40
5.30
46.10
13.90
35.00
5.00
46.10
13.50
35.20
5.20
50.30
12.50
33.10
4.10
49.40
13.10
33.20
4.40
51.70
12.10
32.20
4.00
50.70
13.80
30.80
4.70
Ages
20-40 years
41-60 years
60 years above
Educational Level
High School
Diploma
University
Graduate/Post Graduate
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
6
Table 3. Consumer Confidence by Region (Index)
2009
Descriptions
Jul
Aug
Sep
2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
94.10
79.10
109.10
96.30
78.80
113.90
97.70
83.00
112.50
97.60
79.60
115.50
104.90
89.00
120.80
89.70
75.40
104.10
99.30
80.30
118.20
85.70
70.10
101.20
92.20
74.70
109.70
97.60
83.10
112.10
101.10
88.90
113.20
99.80
88.60
111.00
90.20
75.90
104.40
114.72
103.44
126.00
113.80
105.40
122.10
121.60
112.30
130.80
105.60
98.90
112.20
113.70
109.40
118.00
117.90
112.20
123.60
103.30
95.00
111.60
102.70
96.10
109.20
101.23
88.40
114.07
96.30
81.87
110.73
103.50
93.10
113.90
100.80
89.30
112.30
99.40
92.70
106.10
98.30
88.10
108.60
96.50
87.70
105.30
92.50
82.50
102.50
90.20
80.10
100.30
119.74
106.46
133.02
116.61
103.39
129.84
104.66
97.04
112.28
105.20
95.40
115.00
99.70
92.40
107.10
107.80
97.90
117.80
109.80
95.30
124.30
113.60
100.40
126.80
109.58
95.66
123.49
112.30
100.60
124.00
127.78
117.56
138.00
113.11
98.22
128.00
121.94
112.78
131.11
117.78
110.22
125.33
110.70
105.20
116.20
107.80
101.40
114.10
107.40
100.90
113.90
116.40
105.80
127.10
109.40
102.40
116.30
114.70
109.70
119.70
109.30
102.00
116.70
120.90
114.72
127.08
113.06
107.36
118.75
117.64
113.75
121.53
121.94
118.89
125.00
116.18
109.44
122.92
117.60
110.80
124.40
110.60
106.80
114.30
111.30
108.30
114.20
112.70
104.90
120.60
110.70
100.80
120.60
106.00
101.90
110.00
116.70
109.90
123.50
123.33
106.33
140.33
122.17
107.50
136.83
110.67
93.67
127.67
107.25
95.33
119.17
109.25
92.50
126.00
104.58
92.17
117.00
112.90
91.70
134.20
111.50
96.00
127.00
109.10
94.70
123.50
119.60
104.70
134.50
112.20
98.00
126.30
124.60
112.00
137.20
108.10
94.20
122.00
Makassar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
125.58
109.67
141.50
117.67
109.67
125.67
116.58
107.33
125.83
118.42
113.50
123.33
117.75
105.17
130.33
118.25
110.17
126.33
129.60
121.70
137.50
117.10
109.70
124.50
113.60
102.70
124.50
122.80
111.20
134.50
128.20
115.70
140.70
119.40
107.00
131.80
117.00
105.30
128.70
Samarinda
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
125.25
105.33
145.17
121.08
108.33
133.83
123.25
109.00
137.50
123.92
111.00
136.83
110.92
97.50
124.33
120.50
109.67
131.33
121.30
107.50
135.00
113.70
102.30
125.00
111.70
101.30
122.00
116.70
104.70
128.70
113.10
106.80
119.30
124.90
117.50
132.30
117.30
103.00
131.50
Denpasar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
102.67
88.33
117.00
103.58
90.33
116.83
114.67
104.50
124.83
103.83
94.33
113.33
108.25
98.67
117.83
102.92
93.50
112.33
103.10
94.20
112.00
85.70
75.00
96.30
93.30
86.00
100.50
95.60
87.70
103.50
95.80
88.20
103.30
107.00
98.50
115.50
102.80
95.70
110.00
Padang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
105.25
95.17
115.33
100.33
87.67
113.00
89.67
77.67
101.67
79.17
66.17
92.17
79.83
66.67
93.00
99.17
84.83
113.50
103.00
88.50
117.50
99.00
88.30
109.70
97.80
85.70
109.80
104.40
91.20
117.70
107.80
100.00
115.50
112.30
103.50
121.00
98.90
89.80
108.00
Pontianak
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
127.50
117.00
138.00
121.08
111.50
130.67
116.75
104.83
128.67
123.75
115.67
131.83
121.00
110.67
131.33
120.92
115.33
126.50
123.90
114.20
133.70
114.30
108.20
120.30
124.80
114.80
134.80
118.40
110.20
126.70
119.60
111.70
127.50
124.00
113.80
134.20
121.60
115.00
128.20
Manado
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
126.42
124.33
128.50
139.00
132.17
145.83
140.17
125.50
154.83
125.75
109.00
142.50
121.42
112.33
130.50
137.08
119.00
155.17
134.50
120.20
148.80
126.40
112.30
140.50
146.50
134.00
159.00
148.40
140.70
156.20
141.80
133.00
150.50
129.10
121.80
136.30
111.00
108.50
113.50
Mataram
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.00
112.00
134.00
125.67
116.33
135.00
122.92
110.17
135.67
112.42
106.67
118.17
121.33
108.33
134.33
102.08
97.50
106.67
113.30
98.30
128.20
114.80
102.20
127.50
115.30
104.00
126.70
127.40
116.30
138.50
113.10
106.80
119.30
120.30
113.30
127.20
118.80
114.70
123.00
Pangkal Pinang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
110.33
98.67
122.00
101.42
92.33
110.50
102.83
97.17
108.50
104.00
93.83
114.17
106.42
99.67
113.17
108.25
104.00
112.50
98.30
94.50
102.00
109.20
103.00
115.30
108.10
97.80
118.30
115.20
111.00
119.30
117.80
116.50
119.00
126.00
122.00
130.00
105.30
100.80
109.80
Ambon
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
131.90
121.43
142.38
136.90
134.60
139.21
135.16
126.03
144.29
113.17
103.65
122.70
122.62
116.67
128.57
120.71
114.60
126.83
120.00
114.30
125.70
115.80
110.70
121.00
129.30
119.30
139.30
114.30
110.00
118.60
115.90
111.40
120.30
129.50
125.90
133.20
133.50
130.60
136.30
Banten
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
112.15
78.65
145.65
115.92
93.23
138.61
109.19
86.18
132.20
106.18
82.44
129.92
110.21
85.49
134.93
104.31
81.30
127.32
95.70
77.00
114.40
94.70
76.70
112.60
101.10
79.60
122.70
104.00
81.40
126.50
103.80
87.20
120.40
104.80
84.10
125.60
105.20
88.40
121.90
DKI Jakarta
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
111.98
78.72
145.25
105.76
80.09
131.43
101.20
77.15
125.24
99.02
75.98
122.05
105.05
81.04
129.07
97.17
76.33
118.01
105.90
86.40
125.40
Bandung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
95.22
76.78
113.67
100.06
83.00
117.11
87.67
71.67
103.67
104.67
88.78
120.56
105.00
87.44
122.56
102.39
85.33
119.44
Semarang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
122.83
110.89
134.78
115.33
109.78
120.89
105.83
94.44
117.22
119.56
110.67
128.44
112.06
101.00
123.11
Surabaya
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
100.77
81.73
119.80
102.93
83.20
122.67
97.57
80.13
115.00
103.87
88.47
119.27
Medan
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
117.25
95.56
138.94
114.07
97.67
130.48
116.19
100.85
131.53
Palembang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.50
108.33
138.67
123.89
110.44
137.33
Banjarmasin
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
120.07
117.78
122.36
BandarLampung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
Feb
7
July 2010
Consumer Confidence Index remained on the optimistic
level, albeit down slightly by 5.7 points to 105.7 in July 2010.
The deterioration in confidence was broad base, all
components measuring current economic condition and
expectation for the next 6 months registering a decline. The
index dropped by 5.4 and 6.0 points respectively.
Consumers believe that inflationary pressure will continue
to increase over the next 3 and 6 months, as the indexes
were raised by 13.7 and 6.9 points each againts previous
month. The highest pressure was attributable to the increase
in the price of housing, electricity, gas and fuels group and
foodstuff group.
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index
moved down
Consumer confidence index (CCI) in July 2010 remained stand at
optimistic level, although it slightly slipped down over previous
month. The survey encountered that CCI stood at optimistic area of 105.7
down 5.7 points against previous month survey. The lower CCI was due to
respondent’s dwindle perception on current economic condition and the
expectation for the next 6 months. The perception index plummeted by 5.4
and 6.0 points each.
Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index
(Index)
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
Optimistic
100.0
Pessimistic
90.0
80.0
Current Economic Condition Index
70.0
Global Economic
Crisis
Fuels Hike
Consumer Expectation Index
Consumer Confidence Index
60.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010
Methodology
Consumer Survey-Bank Indonesia (CS-BI) is a monthly survey that has been conducted since October 1999. Since January
2007, the survey is done to moreless 4,600 households as respo ndents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities: Jakarta, Bandung,
Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, BandarLampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado,
Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon, and Banten. By significance level of 99%, the sample has sampling error of 2%. Data
canvassing run through interviews by phone and direct visits in particular cities that based on rotated system. Balance Score Method
(net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the index, where the index is above 100 points indicate an optimism (positive
responses) and vice versa.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
1
The downwarding CCI was indicated to be correlated with enhancing
st
basic electricity rate by 18% on July 1 2010 and rising some basic need
commodities that feared could increasing the living expenses so that
weakened consumer confidence on economic condition.
Compared to the same period on last year, consumer’s
confidence index on economic condition also grew weaker. CCI on the
reporting period declined 9.7 points over previous year. Deteriorating
consumer expectation index by 17.0 points and current economic condition
index by 2.5 points were attributable to the downwarding CCI.
Current Economic Condition Index
Current economic condition
stayed at pessimistic level
Respondent’s perception on current economic condition went
down from optimistic area to pessimistic level against previous month.
Respondent’s pessimism on current economic condition was seen on Current
Economic Condition Index (CECI) which slipped off 5.4 points over previous
month and plummeted 2.5 points against previous year touching pessimistic
level of 96.1.
The survey revealed that all current economic condition indicators
moved down. The highest declined was at household income in July 2010
that could push consumers to hold their desire to consume durable goods.
Moreover, consumers also considered that there were lack on job availability
at current time over previous month.
Higher consumer’s expenditure on education related to new school
year and rising price on some basic need commodities in July 2010 was
attributable to declining consumer’s income that finally could hold consumers
desire to consume durable goods.
Compared to the same period in last year, consumer’s current income
and job availability were become lower.
Graph 2. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI)
Index
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
1
2
3
4
2008
Current Economic Conditions Index
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
Current Incomes
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009
2010
Buying Durable Goods Conditions
Job Availability
2
Consumer Expectation Index
Respondent’s optimism on
economic expectation
jumped down
This month survey confirmed that consumer’s expectation in
the next 6 months remained at optimistic area, although it was lower
than previous month and over the same period in last year.
Consumption for the next 6 months was predicted to accelerate since CEI
remained at the optimistic area of 115.3 down 6.0 points from the previous
month. The declining index was attributable by reducing optimism on
economic condition (9.7 points), future income (4.8 points), and job prospects
(3.5 points) in the next 6 months. Together with the basic electricity rate hike
applied since July 1st 2010 by 18%, respondents considered that pressure on
economic condition is strengthening as the economic condition expectation
moved down. Eventually, it will lighten respondents’ optimism over income in
the next 6 months.
CEI in this period survey was 17.0 points lower than previous
year. Consumer’s had negative view on the economic prospect edged down
by 26.3 points, followed by income expectation by 10.3 points and job
availability by 14.4 points.
Graph. 3
Consumer Expectation Index (CEI)
Index
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 1
2008
Consumer Expectation Index
Economic Expectation
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
2009
3
4
5
6
7
2010
Incomes Expectation
Job Availability Expectation
Income Expectations
Respondent’s optimism
on income in the next 6
months also deteriorated
Respondent were less optimistic on their income in the next 6
months. The deteriorating optimism was indicated by income expectation
index which down 4.8 points over previous month. Classified by respondents’
category, a downward on income expectation encountered in all categories
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
3
especially those who graduated from high school as the index dropped by 8.9
points.
Price Expectations
Pressure on prices in the
future is strengthening
Respondents
envisaged
that
pressure
on
prices
over
goods/services in the next 3 months will be higher than in the next 6
months. The survey revealed that there was soaring pressure on prices in the
next 3 and 6 months as the index moved up by 13.7 and 6.9 points.
Respondents acknowledged the highest leap at housing, electricity, gas and
fuels for the next 3 and 6 months expectation which rose by 13.8 and 8.5
points. Food stuff commodity was believed to be the main factor which could
push prices upward in the next 3 and 6 months ahead by 13.3 points and 6.8
st
points respectively. Rising basic electricity rate that applied on July 1 2010 has
apparently given substantial effect on respondent’s expectations on those
commodity groups.
Graph 4.
Price Expectation Index for the next 3 and 6 months
( % )
(Index)
6.00
200.0
Price Expectation Index 3 months ahead
190.0
5.00
Price Expectation Index 6 months ahead
Cummulative inflations in 3 months
180.0
4.00
170.0
3.00
160.0
2.00
150.0
1.00
140.0
0.00
‐1.00
130.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect prices will still be stable, index > 100 indicates
consumer expect prices will increase, and index < 100 indicates consumer expect prices will decrease
Expectations of Savings and Interest Rates
Interest rate
expectation in the
next 6 months is
relatively unchanged
Based on survey, expectation on prices pressure has apparently
not given any significant influenced yet to the interest rate
expectation. Interest rate expectation index in the next 6 months was
predicted to be relatively unchanged, only moved up by 0.2 point over previous
month. Nevertheless, worsening respondent’s expectation on economic
condition in the next 6 months has impacted consumer’s expectation on saving
in the next 6 months as the index dropped 2.9 points over previous month.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
4
Graph. 5
Expectation Indexes on Interest Rates and Total Savings in the next 6 months
Index
(%)
140
25
Savings Growth in 6 months
Interest Rates Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
Savings Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
130
20
120
15
110
10
100
5
90
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will still be
stable, index > 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will increase, and
index < 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will decrease
Expectations on Economic Conditions
Respondents were
less optimistic on
economic condition
in the next 6 months
Respondent’s expectations on economic condition on the next 6
months continue to down. However, it was still on optimistic level.
Weakening expectations was evidenced by declining index by 9.7 points over
previous month. Significant loose of economic expectations by those who
expenses more than Rp 5 million could be the main reason of worsening
economic condition in the next 6 months to the level of 112.6.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
5
Table 1. Consumer Confidence, Price Expectations, Consumption Plans, and Economic Indicators (Index)
Descriptions
2009
Jul
A
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Aug
Sep
110.01
111.00
Jan
108.66
Feb
110.5
Mar
105.3
107.4
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
110.7
109.9
111.4
100.49
96.59
96.78
97.71
96.67
98.4
94.7
96.4
99.6
100.0
101.4
96.1
128.17
125.09
123.24
124.28
120.65
122.6
115.9
118.5
121.7
119.8
121.3
115.3
129.46
83.66
82.53
127.52
87.64
86.31
123.97
81.28
84.53
124.93
82.21
83.20
124.11
84.90
84.13
123.13
81.12
85.76
125.5
85.2
84.5
118.6
87.3
78.0
121.7
85.3
82.1
126.1
87.5
85.3
124.4
89.6
85.9
126.2
91.4
86.7
120.6
86.8
80.9
142.93
138.94
115.14
138.34
135.44
110.71
138.48
130.35
106.42
137.32
127.28
105.11
139.28
128.77
104.81
136.75
122.11
103.10
141.1
122.7
103.9
132.5
114.4
100.8
135.3
117.7
102.4
136.7
122.2
106.3
134.7
119.5
105.2
137.4
122.3
104.2
132.6
112.6
100.7
Price Expectations for 3 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial ser
Education, recreation, and sports
154.76
158.24
151.28
141.57
142.47
132.07
136.71
135.34
163.75
168.18
160.99
148.85
152.65
139.61
145.62
141.12
165.21
167.00
161.00
155.20
150.16
140.64
146.85
141.34
158.76
160.80
154.94
155.96
138.56
135.38
142.60
137.28
159.89
160.64
155.77
156.58
139.34
136.63
142.25
138.96
161.00
162.97
157.15
156.32
137.95
137.91
141.35
140.05
160.60
163.50
156.40
152.00
135.50
135.90
137.50
138.00
160.20
163.40
155.00
151.50
136.40
136.10
137.90
137.20
155.10
156.00
149.90
148.10
131.20
133.90
134.30
138.20
158.60
159.60
153.50
155.30
133.70
133.60
136.40
141.40
164.30
164.20
156.50
158.10
142.10
138.80
142.00
145.90
166.8
167.8
160.1
161.2
148.8
141.0
149.6
149.4
180.5
181.2
170.4
175.1
155.9
146.6
157.4
154.9
Price Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial ser
Education, recreation, and sports
152.23
154.18
149.88
141.95
138.97
132.55
136.95
134.87
156.46
160.01
155.05
148.55
144.01
139.03
143.20
139.80
156.95
158.23
153.36
150.84
141.71
140.19
143.37
140.98
156.24
158.42
154.25
154.32
137.41
136.73
143.86
138.61
157.92
158.39
154.44
155.72
140.52
138.06
142.59
143.10
158.80
160.51
154.89
155.40
139.90
138.87
143.90
144.73
161.20
162.10
156.90
153.20
140.10
140.00
142.80
146.20
164.30
166.00
158.90
153.10
144.40
140.80
145.50
147.70
161.10
161.70
156.70
148.60
143.10
136.70
143.60
145.30
159.30
160.50
154.50
154.10
140.30
137.20
144.90
144.20
162.50
163.00
158.00
157.30
145.20
139.10
147.30
146.10
163.1
164.1
157.9
157.3
147.1
141.2
148.3
146.1
170.1
171.0
163.5
165.8
148.4
146.5
153.0
150.8
137.18
115.76
107.50
129.87
139.97
117.71
107.85
127.63
138.59
115.20
104.44
124.99
136.40
113.34
104.70
125.93
132.70
115.44
106.58
128.21
133.48
116.31
105.94
126.75
138.30
117.90
106.40
129.80
134.20
114.90
105.20
125.60
135.50
117.00
106.90
126.20
137.60
116.20
105.00
127.00
138.70
117.10
105.80
125.00
141.5
117.8
106.5
127.3
140.0
117.9
103.7
124.3
Appraisal of Present Situation
Current Incomes
Buying durable goods Conditions
Employment Conditions
110.84
Dec
98.55
Expectations (CEI)
114.33
Nov
132.34
Present Situation (CECI)
115.44
2010
Oct
105.7
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Condition)
Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Incomes
Economic Conditions
Employment Conditions
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Expectation)
B
C
D
Economic Indicator within 6 Months
Avaibility of Goods & Services
Interest Rate
Current savings
Savings for 6 months hence
Table 2. Respondent Figures (percentages)
2009
Descriptions
Jul
Aug
Sep
2010
Oct
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Gender
Male
Female
62.09
37.91
59.50
40.50
59.83
40.17
57.55
42.45
57.82
42.18
58.31
41.69
59.80
40.20
58.60
41.40
59.00
41.00
58.80
41.20
57.70
42.30
57.40
42.60
58.90
41.10
Household Expenses
Rp. 1 million - Rp. 3 million
Rp. 3 million - Rp. 5 million
Rp. 5 million and over
60.32
28.99
10.69
60.54
29.15
10.31
59.49
30.10
10.42
60.94
28.35
10.71
60.21
28.39
11.41
59.35
29.66
10.99
58.70
30.90
10.40
61.20
28.70
10.00
58.10
30.80
11.20
59.80
30.30
9.90
59.70
29.60
10.70
60.90
28.80
10.30
58.90
31.10
10.00
58.37
38.79
2.84
62.00
34.64
3.36
58.48
38.34
3.18
61.12
35.89
2.99
63.93
33.00
3.08
62.16
34.23
3.61
57.60
38.40
3.90
59.50
36.60
3.90
59.10
36.50
4.40
60.30
35.60
4.10
61.10
34.90
4.00
60.50
35.90
3.50
59.30
37.10
3.50
48.56
12.94
33.61
4.90
48.74
12.85
33.28
5.13
48.39
13.08
34.00
4.53
47.69
13.42
34.35
4.53
47.65
12.90
35.24
4.21
47.59
13.21
34.59
4.60
45.90
13.40
35.40
5.30
46.10
13.90
35.00
5.00
46.10
13.50
35.20
5.20
50.30
12.50
33.10
4.10
49.40
13.10
33.20
4.40
51.70
12.10
32.20
4.00
50.70
13.80
30.80
4.70
Ages
20-40 years
41-60 years
60 years above
Educational Level
High School
Diploma
University
Graduate/Post Graduate
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
6
Table 3. Consumer Confidence by Region (Index)
2009
Descriptions
Jul
Aug
Sep
2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
94.10
79.10
109.10
96.30
78.80
113.90
97.70
83.00
112.50
97.60
79.60
115.50
104.90
89.00
120.80
89.70
75.40
104.10
99.30
80.30
118.20
85.70
70.10
101.20
92.20
74.70
109.70
97.60
83.10
112.10
101.10
88.90
113.20
99.80
88.60
111.00
90.20
75.90
104.40
114.72
103.44
126.00
113.80
105.40
122.10
121.60
112.30
130.80
105.60
98.90
112.20
113.70
109.40
118.00
117.90
112.20
123.60
103.30
95.00
111.60
102.70
96.10
109.20
101.23
88.40
114.07
96.30
81.87
110.73
103.50
93.10
113.90
100.80
89.30
112.30
99.40
92.70
106.10
98.30
88.10
108.60
96.50
87.70
105.30
92.50
82.50
102.50
90.20
80.10
100.30
119.74
106.46
133.02
116.61
103.39
129.84
104.66
97.04
112.28
105.20
95.40
115.00
99.70
92.40
107.10
107.80
97.90
117.80
109.80
95.30
124.30
113.60
100.40
126.80
109.58
95.66
123.49
112.30
100.60
124.00
127.78
117.56
138.00
113.11
98.22
128.00
121.94
112.78
131.11
117.78
110.22
125.33
110.70
105.20
116.20
107.80
101.40
114.10
107.40
100.90
113.90
116.40
105.80
127.10
109.40
102.40
116.30
114.70
109.70
119.70
109.30
102.00
116.70
120.90
114.72
127.08
113.06
107.36
118.75
117.64
113.75
121.53
121.94
118.89
125.00
116.18
109.44
122.92
117.60
110.80
124.40
110.60
106.80
114.30
111.30
108.30
114.20
112.70
104.90
120.60
110.70
100.80
120.60
106.00
101.90
110.00
116.70
109.90
123.50
123.33
106.33
140.33
122.17
107.50
136.83
110.67
93.67
127.67
107.25
95.33
119.17
109.25
92.50
126.00
104.58
92.17
117.00
112.90
91.70
134.20
111.50
96.00
127.00
109.10
94.70
123.50
119.60
104.70
134.50
112.20
98.00
126.30
124.60
112.00
137.20
108.10
94.20
122.00
Makassar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
125.58
109.67
141.50
117.67
109.67
125.67
116.58
107.33
125.83
118.42
113.50
123.33
117.75
105.17
130.33
118.25
110.17
126.33
129.60
121.70
137.50
117.10
109.70
124.50
113.60
102.70
124.50
122.80
111.20
134.50
128.20
115.70
140.70
119.40
107.00
131.80
117.00
105.30
128.70
Samarinda
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
125.25
105.33
145.17
121.08
108.33
133.83
123.25
109.00
137.50
123.92
111.00
136.83
110.92
97.50
124.33
120.50
109.67
131.33
121.30
107.50
135.00
113.70
102.30
125.00
111.70
101.30
122.00
116.70
104.70
128.70
113.10
106.80
119.30
124.90
117.50
132.30
117.30
103.00
131.50
Denpasar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
102.67
88.33
117.00
103.58
90.33
116.83
114.67
104.50
124.83
103.83
94.33
113.33
108.25
98.67
117.83
102.92
93.50
112.33
103.10
94.20
112.00
85.70
75.00
96.30
93.30
86.00
100.50
95.60
87.70
103.50
95.80
88.20
103.30
107.00
98.50
115.50
102.80
95.70
110.00
Padang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
105.25
95.17
115.33
100.33
87.67
113.00
89.67
77.67
101.67
79.17
66.17
92.17
79.83
66.67
93.00
99.17
84.83
113.50
103.00
88.50
117.50
99.00
88.30
109.70
97.80
85.70
109.80
104.40
91.20
117.70
107.80
100.00
115.50
112.30
103.50
121.00
98.90
89.80
108.00
Pontianak
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
127.50
117.00
138.00
121.08
111.50
130.67
116.75
104.83
128.67
123.75
115.67
131.83
121.00
110.67
131.33
120.92
115.33
126.50
123.90
114.20
133.70
114.30
108.20
120.30
124.80
114.80
134.80
118.40
110.20
126.70
119.60
111.70
127.50
124.00
113.80
134.20
121.60
115.00
128.20
Manado
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
126.42
124.33
128.50
139.00
132.17
145.83
140.17
125.50
154.83
125.75
109.00
142.50
121.42
112.33
130.50
137.08
119.00
155.17
134.50
120.20
148.80
126.40
112.30
140.50
146.50
134.00
159.00
148.40
140.70
156.20
141.80
133.00
150.50
129.10
121.80
136.30
111.00
108.50
113.50
Mataram
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.00
112.00
134.00
125.67
116.33
135.00
122.92
110.17
135.67
112.42
106.67
118.17
121.33
108.33
134.33
102.08
97.50
106.67
113.30
98.30
128.20
114.80
102.20
127.50
115.30
104.00
126.70
127.40
116.30
138.50
113.10
106.80
119.30
120.30
113.30
127.20
118.80
114.70
123.00
Pangkal Pinang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
110.33
98.67
122.00
101.42
92.33
110.50
102.83
97.17
108.50
104.00
93.83
114.17
106.42
99.67
113.17
108.25
104.00
112.50
98.30
94.50
102.00
109.20
103.00
115.30
108.10
97.80
118.30
115.20
111.00
119.30
117.80
116.50
119.00
126.00
122.00
130.00
105.30
100.80
109.80
Ambon
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
131.90
121.43
142.38
136.90
134.60
139.21
135.16
126.03
144.29
113.17
103.65
122.70
122.62
116.67
128.57
120.71
114.60
126.83
120.00
114.30
125.70
115.80
110.70
121.00
129.30
119.30
139.30
114.30
110.00
118.60
115.90
111.40
120.30
129.50
125.90
133.20
133.50
130.60
136.30
Banten
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
112.15
78.65
145.65
115.92
93.23
138.61
109.19
86.18
132.20
106.18
82.44
129.92
110.21
85.49
134.93
104.31
81.30
127.32
95.70
77.00
114.40
94.70
76.70
112.60
101.10
79.60
122.70
104.00
81.40
126.50
103.80
87.20
120.40
104.80
84.10
125.60
105.20
88.40
121.90
DKI Jakarta
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
111.98
78.72
145.25
105.76
80.09
131.43
101.20
77.15
125.24
99.02
75.98
122.05
105.05
81.04
129.07
97.17
76.33
118.01
105.90
86.40
125.40
Bandung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
95.22
76.78
113.67
100.06
83.00
117.11
87.67
71.67
103.67
104.67
88.78
120.56
105.00
87.44
122.56
102.39
85.33
119.44
Semarang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
122.83
110.89
134.78
115.33
109.78
120.89
105.83
94.44
117.22
119.56
110.67
128.44
112.06
101.00
123.11
Surabaya
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
100.77
81.73
119.80
102.93
83.20
122.67
97.57
80.13
115.00
103.87
88.47
119.27
Medan
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
117.25
95.56
138.94
114.07
97.67
130.48
116.19
100.85
131.53
Palembang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.50
108.33
138.67
123.89
110.44
137.33
Banjarmasin
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
120.07
117.78
122.36
BandarLampung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
Feb
7